Brexit?

[jambo lodge]

The British public voted in principle to leave the European Union. The British Government who represent the British people want to trigger the principle of leaving the EU by March 2017, Article 50. What is so difficult for Remainers and SNP separatists to understand?

[Daydream Believer]

Nothing whatsoever, just don't let the other side know all your plans, your red lines, your contingency plans, plan B, C, D, E etc etc.

 

By debating it in Parliament & the Lords and then having a vote on what your going to be negotiating, only pre-warns the EU negotiators of every chapter and verse of your entire negotiating strategy.  By doing that it's doomed to failure, which many will be ecstatic about.

 

Me included.

 

But in terms of the negotiating position I don't see that debating it makes much difference. The alternative seems to be that May walks into negotiations and says

 

"Brexit means Brexit. We'll be leaving the EU within 2 years whatever the cost. Now lets negotiate."

 

The whole thing is laughable. 

[Mikey1874]

The British public voted in principle to leave the European Union. The British Government who represent the British people want to trigger the principle of leaving the EU by March 2017, Article 50. What is so difficult for Remainers and SNP separatists to understand?

The fact the UK system of government is based on going through Parliament for this sort of thing.

[JamboX2]

As the boxer Mike Tyson once said "Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth"

Or as Helmuth von Moltke said "No battle plan survives contact with the enemy"

 

In other words.

We could have the best thought out plans possible, covering every eventuality only for the entire lot to go out the window on the first day of negotiations.

I can guarantee you, that the plans we make before the negotiations, will look nothing like what we actually end up with by the end of the negotiations, and that applies to both sides.

All very good. But Brexit has 0 meaning. Despite the Indy white paper being flawed and frankly rubbish at least it was a plan with objectives. Brexit to me based on what I've heard means everything from leaving the EU wholesale to restoring parliamentary democracy and reducing immigration. It's a mess.

 

The government need to now do something not done since the 1970s: plan the aim for the economy in a non-EU world and identify how Brexit can benefit key sectors and where they need to protect against certain weaknesses.

 

They need to ascertain if they want in the Customs Union or the Single Market or both.

 

Do they want to maintain the European Arrest Warrant? Stay in the Defence Procurement Plan? Stay in Europol? In the Broadcasting Union? Do we want to maintain tariff free phone coverage for UK and EU citizens in the EU and the UK?

 

All this needs broken down and considered. It needs a plan and a scale of priorities.

 

Parliament needs consulted broadly here. And Government needs to declare if economic prosperity or closing down on immigration is the goal here.

 

This is the biggest political moment since Suez. It's massive and will shape the rest of our lifetimes. Done right it could work. Mess up and the UK shatters assunder.

[Mikey1874]

And people think Brexit is simple

[Jambo dans les Pyrenees]

And people think Brexit is simple

What, you mean I can't just say "Beans means Heinz" and focus my energies on singing God save the Queen?

 

I suppose we do need to carefully think through who to blame for everything once all the immigrants have gone.

[Space Mackerel]

 

 

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[Mikey1874]

UKIP woman complaining at judgement forcing government to go through Parliament then says (correctly I believe) that they should repeal the actual Act of Parliament joining EU i.e. go though Parliament.

[Francis Albert]

What, you mean I can't just say "Beans means Heinz" and focus my energies on singing God save the Queen?

 

I suppose we do need to carefully think through who to blame for everything once all the immigrants have gone.

Who has ever suggested any immigrants would be going? In fact the government has stated the exact opposite - that no-one living here will be going. It is an assurance that as far as I know has not been reciprocated by the EU or European states where British people currently live.

 

They seem to be reserving the right to punish them for UK's decision to leave or hold them as bargaining chips. But that's OK. Unlike us they love all foreigners and immigrants.

[Francis Albert]

 

 

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And it makes clear an Indy referendum would have the same status. But the SNP enthusiastically supports ignoring/overturning the Brexit referendum result?

[Francis Albert]

UKIP woman complaining at judgement forcing government to go through Parliament then says (correctly I believe) that they should repeal the actual Act of Parliament joining EU i.e. go though Parliament.

I think she is simply saying parliament should implement the outcome of the referendum.  Rather than refuse to do so. Seems fair comment to me.

[Francis Albert]

The fact the UK system of government is based on going through Parliament for this sort of thing.

Why did no-one point this out before the Brexit vote. Why did Cameron promise Article 50 would be triggered the day after a "Leave" vote. Why did the taxpayer- funded government leaflet delivered to every household say that it was our decision, which would be implemented, without mention "going through Parliament for this sort of thing"?

 

I actually think that the House of Commons will vote to trigger Article 50. Having voted 6 to 1 to let the people decide through a referendum anything else would surely be too cynical even for MPs to stomach.

 

The House of Lords is another matter and is likely to be the real obstacle. You know, the unelected House of Lords. A victory for democracy indeed!

[Daydream Believer]

Who has ever suggested any immigrants would be going? In fact the government has stated the exact opposite - that no-one living here will be going. It is an assurance that as far as I know has not been reciprocated by the EU or European states where British people currently live.

 

They seem to be reserving the right to punish them for UK's decision to leave or hold them as bargaining chips. But that's OK. Unlike us they love all foreigners and immigrants.

 

So hypothetically, the UK government offer full right to EU citizens living here in return for the same rights being offered to UK citizens abroad. The EU countries say "no, we're not going to reciprocate"

 

The will of the people is that we leave the EU, but you say the government has stated that immigrants will stay. (I'm not so sure)

 

What's your solution?

[Mikey1874]

I think she is simply saying parliament should implement the outcome of the referendum. Rather than refuse to do so. Seems fair comment to me.

When did you get the idea Parliament is preventing Brexit?

[Space Mackerel]

And it makes clear an Indy referendum would have the same status. But the SNP enthusiastically supports ignoring/overturning the Brexit referendum result?

It doesn't mention the 2014 independence referendum though?

 

 

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[Jambo dans les Pyrenees]

Who has ever suggested any immigrants would be going? In fact the government has stated the exact opposite - that no-one living here will be going. It is an assurance that as far as I know has not been reciprocated by the EU or European states where British people currently live.

 

They seem to be reserving the right to punish them for UK's decision to leave or hold them as bargaining chips. But that's OK. Unlike us they love all foreigners and immigrants.

 

My post was a parody meant to highlight some of the stupidity and extremism flying around.  However, you raise a few interesting points - I had understood that the government had so far refused to guarantee the future leave to remain of any EU citizens as they wanted mutual confirmation that the reverse would apply for UK citizens living in the EU.  The hard headed in me says that is understandable as an opening gambit in a negotiation, the negotiator in me says don't lead on things the public will find ugly or the other side will use to paint you as a moral coward or in an environment where you know you don't have the strongest hand, letting something emotive gather pace risks backfiring badly. The human being in me simply winces.

 

However, in my not very representative nor statistically valid sample, about a third of the EU folks I know have said they are planning to up sticks for a variety of reasons, the common denominator though being a feeling to jump before being pushed.   We will be a worse country without them.

 

On a more general note, it will be interesting to look at the dynamics of that particular part of the debate if push comes to shove.  We send back anywhere between 1-3 million EU citizens, predominately young and economically active/contributive who also have a higher than average birth rate, thus helping mitigate our growing ageing population imbalance.  Around 130,000 of which currently work in the NHS.  In return, we get back around 1.2m pensioners from France, Spain and Portugal who if they weren't grumpy enough old buggers, are mightily p******d off at having to abandon their retirement plans but do head down the local GP's to re-register asap.

 

PS.  Most of the hot woman will also go, and we'll be left with the natives again.

[Francis Albert]

When did you get the idea Parliament is preventing Brexit?

I didn't say it was. I said it shouldn't. But there are plenty, Clegg and Farron for two who are determined it should.

[Mikey1874]

I didn't say it was. I said it shouldn't. But there are plenty, Clegg and Farron for two who are determined it should.

That's a fair point.

 

We can separate that which is wrong from the issue of Parliament being sovereign.

[Francis Albert]

So hypothetically, the UK government offer full right to EU citizens living here in return for the same rights being offered to UK citizens abroad. The EU countries say "no, we're not going to reciprocate"

 

The will of the people is that we leave the EU, but you say the government has stated that immigrants will stay. (I'm not so sure)

 

What's your solution?

I believe that since its initial "reciprocation" position the UK government has said people living in the UK will be able to stay without any reciprocal assurance from the EU. I am not sure what the problem is, except potentially for UK citizens living in the EU.

 

The debate in the campaign was all about future immigration. I don't remember anyone suggesting millions of people living here would be expelled. That was and is an invention of the Remainers' Project Fear.

[Francis Albert]

It doesn't mention the 2014 independence referendum though?

 

 

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True. An odd omission. If 2014 was different and more binding then I'd have thought it would have said so.

[Daydream Believer]

Why did no-one point this out before the Brexit vote. Why did Cameron promise Article 50 would be triggered the day after a "Leave" vote. Why did the taxpayer- funded government leaflet delivered to every household say that it was our decision, which would be implemented, without mention "going through Parliament for this sort of thing"?

 

I actually think that the House of Commons will vote to trigger Article 50. Having voted 6 to 1 to let the people decide through a referendum anything else would surely be too cynical even for MPs to stomach.

 

The House of Lords is another matter and is likely to be the real obstacle. You know, the unelected House of Lords. A victory for democracy indeed!

 

You'd have to ask the government about the 1st question. The fact was that, as have been confirmed in court (pending appeal) they were wrong. One of the most understandable lies told during the period.

 

I agree that the house of lords might be a problem, and I also believe that it shouldn't exist (though I must admit I'm warming to the crazy old b******s recently)

 

MP's will be interesting. It will certainly delay things. The other issue is that they might push for certain issues like the single market, then vote against article 50 if they're not guaranteed on the basis that the brexit being offered is not the one they believe the people voted for.

[Daydream Believer]

I believe that since its initial "reciprocation" position the UK government has said people living in the UK will be able to stay without any reciprocal assurance from the EU. I am not sure what the problem is, except potentially for UK citizens living in the EU.

 

The debate in the campaign was all about future immigration. I don't remember anyone suggesting millions of people living here would be expelled. That was and is an invention of the Remainers' Project Fear.

 

Do you have any link for that mate?

 

My girlfiend is Polish and we've been a bit uncertain about what the future holds.

[Francis Albert]

Out of interest, given the EU result was close, if each MP votes on the basis of how their constituency voted, is it theoretically possible for that to result in a vote against brexit in parliament, because unlike the referendum where each individual had a vote giving larger constituency more weight so to speak, that only accounts for one vote in parliament?

 

Not sure I explained that well.

I came across the answer to a slightly different but related question today. Apparently in a single issue General Election with votes cast as in the Brexit referendum Leave would have a Commons majority of about 400 due to Remain votes being more concentrated in certain areas (London and the South East and Scotland for example) and the Leave votes being more evenly spread across the country. I thin that means that if MPs voted in line with their constituency votes in the referendum Leave would romp home.

 

Food for thought for MPs inclined to obstruct Brexit?

[Francis Albert]

Do you have any link for that mate?

 

My girlfiend is Polish and we've been a bit uncertain about what the future holds.

Sorry having done a bit of googling I was probably mis-remembering a statement that the government doesn't expect there to be any change in the status of existing residents. It's still not settled. Google "Brexit and current EU residents in the UK" and you'll get lots of stuff including the formal government position. Sorry to get your hopes up but I still think there is zero chance of mass or indeed any expulsions of existing residents. But easy for me to say that. I don't know how long your girlfriend has been here but once she has been resident for 5 years she has an automatic right to stay and I think it is likely to take at least that that long for Brexit to actually happen!

[jambos are go!]

It doesn't mention the 2014 independence referendum though?

 

 

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Alex Salmond and David Cameron signed the Edinburgh Agreement which included a mandatory clause to accept the outcome of the Referendum. Lasted a day or so. Referendums are useless.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

You can't though. Independence was laid out in minute detail in hundreds of pages. Brexit was a word that meant whatever anyone who voted in favour of it wanted it to mean! There was no official statement of what you'd actually be getting. It was never so simple as "leave EU" because that's a nonsensical boiling down of what that actually requires.

No it wasn't. The White Paper was a wishlist which included nonsense like a currency union.

 

The Leave campaign couldn't produce a White Paper because it wasn't the governmental position. Any Leave vote, therefore, was a blank sheet of paper to negotiate the terms of separation.

[Space Mackerel]

Alex Salmond and David Cameron signed the Edinburgh Agreement which included a mandatory clause to accept the outcome of the Referendum. Lasted a day or so. Referendums are useless.

I'm fairly sure that had there been a Yes vote then we would be well on our way to being an independent country by now.

 

Interestingly enough, I've just watched a live stream from the Yes cafe in Edinburgh, Labour spin doctor Simon Pia now a committed Yes supporter now giving an hour or so's talk.

 

 

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[Space Mackerel]

No it wasn't. The White Paper was a wishlist which included nonsense like a currency union.

 

The Leave campaign couldn't produce a White Paper because it wasn't the governmental position. Any Leave vote, therefore, was a blank sheet of paper to negotiate the terms of separation.

I much preferred this.

 

http://theweebluebook.com/index.php

 

 

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[Space Mackerel]

I came across the answer to a slightly different but related question today. Apparently in a single issue General Election with votes cast as in the Brexit referendum Leave would have a Commons majority of about 400 due to Remain votes being more concentrated in certain areas (London and the South East and Scotland for example) and the Leave votes being more evenly spread across the country. I thin that means that if MPs voted in line with their constituency votes in the referendum Leave would romp home.

 

Food for thought for MPs inclined to obstruct Brexit?

https://www.indy100.com/article/brexit-mp-vote-article-50-chart-7398116

 

 

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[Daydream Believer]

Sorry having done a bit of googling I was probably mis-remembering a statement that the government doesn't expect there to be any change in the status of existing residents. It's still not settled. Google "Brexit and current EU residents in the UK" and you'll get lots of stuff including the formal government position. Sorry to get your hopes up but I still think there is zero chance of mass or indeed any expulsions of existing residents. But easy for me to say that. I don't know how long your girlfriend has been here but once she has been resident for 5 years she has an automatic right to stay and I think it is likely to take at least that that long for Brexit to actually happen!

 

No worries, she came when she was 5 as a refugee more than 30 years ago when Poland was still communist but has kept her Polish passport (because we didn't think it mattered).

 

It's one of those things where we're 99.9% sure that things will be fine (more worried about healthcare and employer problems than actual deportation) but it will be good when things are finally cleared up.

[Space Mackerel]

If history is the lesson then this referendum will be ignored.

Greece Ireland Holland France have all had them in relation to the EU.

All were ignored and the question put differently.

 

 

But hey what do i know im just a thicko racist.

Wished i could be like the remainerz and cheer a fund manager from the city on.

Cant have those people losing out.

 

Democracy is an illusion.

In the EU and the USA.

And for the nationalists to back any scuppering referendum vote is bonkers.

 

 

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[John Findlay]

 

 

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I would have thought a Male Donkey was large enough on its own without having to wear a strap on.

[The Real Maroonblood]

No worries, she came when she was 5 as a refugee more than 30 years ago when Poland was still communist but has kept her Polish passport (because we didn't think it mattered).

 

It's one of those things where we're 99.9% sure that things will be fine (more worried about healthcare and employer problems than actual deportation) but it will be good when things are finally cleared up.

Imo she'll be fine but to be on the safe side get married.

[Jambo dans les Pyrenees]

Imo she'll be fine but to be on the safe side get married.

Exactly. Before March 31st just to be totally sure.

[Space Mackerel]

I would have thought a Male Donkey was large enough on its own without having to wear a strap on.

Probably not big enough the shut Katie Hopkins up though [emoji53]

 

 

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[Seymour M Hersh]

No idea who Bicknell is but had article 50 been invoked the 3 judges (and the mega-rich fund manager from Guyana and her even wealthier hedge fund manager husband), who's legal expertise may not be in constitutional matters, would have caused even more trouble as no doubt they would have demanded a cessation of all brevet negotiations.

[JamboX2]

This Brexit thing, like independence, has unleashed a very black and white, vitriolic element which was always there across the UK.

 

Anti-immigration. Racial abuse risen. Increasing internal tensions in the UK. A belief these judges are "Enemies of the people".

 

It's crazy. It's scary and it will lead to a more right-wing, narrow minded, facile politics. A Pandoras box.

[Seymour M Hersh]

This Brexit thing, like independence, has unleashed a very black and white, vitriolic element which was always there across the UK.

 

Anti-immigration. Racial abuse risen. Increasing internal tensions in the UK. A belief these judges are "Enemies of the people".

 

It's crazy. It's scary and it will lead to a more right-wing, narrow minded, facile politics. A Pandoras box.

 

Utter claptrap. 

[Seymour M Hersh]

Another Tory Brexiter MP has resigned.  This one apparently always thought it meant staying in the single market.

 

 

 

That'll be the one who was "incandescent" over lack of promotion before quitting then?  Hell, apparently, hath no fury like a politician spurned. 

[The Mighty Thor]

 

 

This Brexit thing, like independence, has unleashed a very black and white, vitriolic element which was always there across the UK.

 

Anti-immigration. Racial abuse risen. Increasing internal tensions in the UK. A belief these judges are "Enemies of the people".

 

It's crazy. It's scary and it will lead to a more right-wing, narrow minded, facile politics. A Pandoras box.

The politics merely reflect the increasingly right wing, small minded and xenophobic nature of a obviously large percentage of the population of our near neighbours.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

The UK is going about this arse over tit in the first place.

 

The EU has said they won't negotiate until Article 50 is invoked. The UK should have said "ok, we veto any EU legislation until negotiations commence". That way, negotiations take place before Article 50 is invoked and parliament has something to vote on.

[JamboX2]

 

The politics merely reflect the increasingly right wing, small minded and xenophobic nature of a obviously large percentage of the population of our near neighbours.

And here. 1.2 million voted Brexit. Only a gap the size of Edinburgh in the vote. Not big at all. Senior MSP for the SNP arguing a third of independence voters back it and a number of his colleagues too.

 

It's a live issue for Scotland as well. No matter how much she huffs and puffs the First Minister has to realise this is as live an issue in Scotland as the wider UK.

[JamboX2]

Utter claptrap.

Do you not believe a few mainstream papers calling these judges "Enemies of the people" and claiming they're blocking something when they aren't is not going to fuel a frenzied sense of betrayal (when no ones betrayed anyone)?

 

The tone of the national debate has plumetted. The judges have said Parliament, the people's democratic representatives, should be consulted to trigger Article 50. Why is that bad?

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

Do you not believe a few mainstream papers calling these judges "Enemies of the people" and claiming they're blocking something when they aren't is not going to fuel a frenzied sense of betrayal (when no ones betrayed anyone)?

 

The tone of the national debate has plumetted. The judges have said Parliament, the people's democratic representatives, should be consulted to trigger Article 50. Why is that bad?

It isn't bad in itself. It will be "bad" if parliament ignores a popular vote.

[Francis Albert]

No worries, she came when she was 5 as a refugee more than 30 years ago when Poland was still communist but has kept her Polish passport (because we didn't think it mattered).

 

It's one of those things where we're 99.9% sure that things will be fine (more worried about healthcare and employer problems than actual deportation) but it will be good when things are finally cleared up.

It doesn't matter what passport she holds, if she has lived here for more than 5 years she cannot be deported.

 

Project Fear and the remoaners have shamefully stoked this fear of deportation of existing residents which as far as I am aware no-one, not even Nigel Farage, has proposed.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

It doesn't matter what passport she holds, if she has lived here for more than 5 years she cannot be deported.

The Vienna convention would also apply.

[Space Mackerel]

This Brexit thing, like independence, has unleashed a very black and white, vitriolic element which was always there across the UK.

 

Anti-immigration. Racial abuse risen. Increasing internal tensions in the UK. A belief these judges are "Enemies of the people".

 

It's crazy. It's scary and it will lead to a more right-wing, narrow minded, facile politics. A Pandoras box.

This has nothing to do with Scottish independence. It's a completely separate thing.

 

 

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[JamboX2]

It isn't bad in itself. It will be "bad" if parliament ignores a popular vote.

It is bad. It's undermining the judicial system. MPs won't vote against Brexit. Theyshould however provide the mandate to do so.

[JamboX2]

This has nothing to do with Scottish independence. It's a completely separate thing.

 

 

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No. I'm saying that both separately have unleashed a very reactionary and black and white style of positics in Scotland and the UK as a whole.

 

The atmosphere of politics we live in right now is divisive and lacks any cebtre ground. The idea that questioning judges is acceptable by government ministers is mad and yet Kenny MacAskill in the indy campaign and now the likes of Sajid Javid on QT last night have.

 

Both Brexit and Indy have unleashed a very nationalistic politics which seeks to present exceptionalism as the norm: like we see with the NHS Audit report in Scotland getting an "oh, aye, well still better than England..." and "Europe? Pfft who needs them?! Mother of democracy... etc"

 

It's divisive and facile.

[Deodato]

No. I'm saying that both separately have unleashed a very reactionary and black and white style of positics in Scotland and the UK as a whole.

 

The atmosphere of politics we live in right now is divisive and lacks any cebtre ground. The idea that questioning judges is acceptable by government ministers is mad and yet Kenny MacAskill in the indy campaign and now the likes of Sajid Javid on QT last night have.

 

Both Brexit and Indy have unleashed a very nationalistic politics which seeks to present exceptionalism as the norm: like we see with the NHS Audit report in Scotland getting an "oh, aye, well still better than England..." and "Europe? Pfft who needs them?! Mother of democracy... etc"

 

It's divisive and facile.

I can agree with this. Good post.