Season Tickets 2015/16 - ST sales have now ended

[GavK1012]

If you have no ambition

Some of us live in the real world...its not champy manager world...increase the capacity and wack it on the existing loan and if it all goes pear shaped just start a new game!!!

 

I held the same thoughts when i was younger...dafter and simply a bit more naive but you soon grow out of that after a few years...

 

Wet behind the ears is a phrase that springs to mind for a lot of champy managers types on here posting comments about the real world!!

[luckydug]

I am not keen on the club going into debt again.

If that means we have to settle for what we have just now then so be it.

The positivity around the club at the moment is great and if it continues over the next couple of years we may well be able to afford to upgrade the stadium. We may well sell a player or two for decent fees plus there is  the FOH contributions. 

I would just enjoy the ride for the moment and if we are still selling out in two years time then we can make plans.

[Neil Jung]

I am not keen on the club going into debt again.

If that means we have to settle for what we have just now then so be it.

The positivity around the club at the moment is great and if it continues over the next couple of years we may well be able to afford to upgrade the stadium. We may well sell a player or two for decent fees plus there is the FOH contributions.

I would just enjoy the ride for the moment and if we are still selling out in two years time then we can make plans.

The decision to upgrade, rebuild or relocate is coming one way or another. The question is which one of these will be best for the club. The main stand needs to be flattened sooner rather than later. I'd hate for there to be an emergency in there.

[heartsfc_fan]

The decision to upgrade, rebuild or relocate is coming one way or another. The question is which one of these will be best for the club. The main stand needs to be flattened sooner rather than later. I'd hate for there to be an emergency in there.

Exactly.

The thing keeps getting patched up, but will come a time when it needs replacing or we move.

[Gorgie_Rules]

V Schalke 27,272

V Siroki Brijeg 28,486

V AEK Athens 32,459

V Sparta Prague 27,255

V Ferencvaros 26182

 

V Barcelona 57,857

 

Folk honestly think just 20k is big enough for us? the 4 games against hibs and rangers games last season could easily have had 25,000+

 

For the folk saying they dont want a stadium too big due to the empty seats on unattractive games, sadly that is the reality of having a bigger stadium and it effects all clubs round the world. Having the capability of being able to satisfy demand on big games can help the club grow significantly, its certainly worth the trade off

[Clerry Jambo]

V Schalke 27,272

V Siroki Brijeg 28,486

V AEK Athens 32,459

V Sparta Prague 27,255

V Ferencvaros 26182

 

V Barcelona 57,857

 

Folk honestly think just 20k is big enough for us? the 4 games against hibs and rangers games last season could easily have had 25,000+

 

For the folk saying they dont want a stadium too big due to the empty seats on unattractive games, sadly that is the reality of having a bigger stadium and it effects all clubs round the world. Having the capability of being able to satisfy demand on big games can help the club grow significantly, its certainly worth the trade off

Spot on Gorgie.......

[Watt-Zeefuik]

Just to be clear, I think I'm the only one who floated 35k, and building that in the next five years would be stupid and suicidal.  I think we can reach that, but we have to do it by sustainable expansion, not in a moonshot.

As to 19k being big enough, I have to say again -- we sold out a midweek game against Alloa last season when the title was all but won.  How is it possible we couldn't draw more for a derby or an OF game in seasons where we're threatening top two?

[chrisyboy7]

V Schalke 27,272

V Siroki Brijeg 28,486

V AEK Athens 32,459

V Sparta Prague 27,255

V Ferencvaros 26182

 

V Barcelona 57,857

 

Folk honestly think just 20k is big enough for us? the 4 games against hibs and rangers games last season could easily have had 25,000+

 

For the folk saying they dont want a stadium too big due to the empty seats on unattractive games, sadly that is the reality of having a bigger stadium and it effects all clubs round the world. Having the capability of being able to satisfy demand on big games can help the club grow significantly, its certainly worth the trade off

I applaud you Sir. You are spot on. The people that want a wee stadium want to support a wee club. I want to support a big club with ambition.

Celtic where getting 18k before Mr McCann.

Onwards & upwards for the club.

In 10 years time we will look back and say thank feck we build this 30k plus stadium.. It's not just about making Europe too. You actually want to get through the qualifying rounds. We will need a far bigger squad but with the extra income generated from s larger capacity it can be done.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[luckydug]

The decision to upgrade, rebuild or relocate is coming one way or another. The question is which one of these will be best for the club. The main stand needs to be flattened sooner rather than later. I'd hate for there to be an emergency in there.

 

Agreed but I would be surprised if we didn't have another five years to organize funding for a new stand.

Even if our capacity was only 20000 or so we could play any European games at Murrayfield.

[William H. Bonney]

V Schalke 27,272

V Siroki Brijeg 28,486

V AEK Athens 32,459

V Sparta Prague 27,255

V Ferencvaros 26182

V Barcelona 57,857

Folk honestly think just 20k is big enough for us? the 4 games against hibs and rangers games last season could easily have had 25,000+

For the folk saying they dont want a stadium too big due to the empty seats on unattractive games, sadly that is the reality of having a bigger stadium and it effects all clubs round the world. Having the capability of being able to satisfy demand on big games can help the club grow significantly, its certainly worth the trade off[/quote

 

A lot of the games above attracted people who probably have no intention of watching hearts again. The Barcelona game especially. A 20k stadium is ample enough.

[Guest Bilel Mohsni]

 

V Schalke 27,272

V Siroki Brijeg 28,486

V AEK Athens 32,459

V Sparta Prague 27,255

V Ferencvaros 26182

V Barcelona 57,857

Folk honestly think just 20k is big enough for us? the 4 games against hibs and rangers games last season could easily have had 25,000+

For the folk saying they dont want a stadium too big due to the empty seats on unattractive games, sadly that is the reality of having a bigger stadium and it effects all clubs round the world. Having the capability of being able to satisfy demand on big games can help the club grow significantly, its certainly worth the trade off[/quote

 

A lot of the games above attracted people who probably have no intention of watching hearts again. The Barcelona game especially. A 20k stadium is ample enough.

 

The Barcelona one, yes, fair enough. Even then, Hibs got nothing like that number when they played them. The European ties, there would be 20k + Hearts supporters at each one.

[kingantti1874]

We don't have time to save that amount of money up i'm afraid. We will borrow and will pay it back this time!

We won't unless it's a private individual as no bank will lend hearts or any other Scottish club anything beyond a day to day facility..

[kingantti1874]

Some of us live in the real world...its not champy manager world...increase the capacity and wack it on the existing loan and if it all goes pear shaped just start a new game!!!

 

I held the same thoughts when i was younger...dafter and simply a bit more naive but you soon grow out of that after a few years...

 

Wet behind the ears is a phrase that springs to mind for a lot of champy managers types on here posting comments about the real world!!

I hope to god you don't run your own business . Seriously tho - Hearts have grown over the past decade and will grow still further. Our capacity needs to be sensible but not limiting, 20k is limiting in my opinion, 25k is sensible, 30k is too much. I think deep down we all agree with the only variance being the number.. B

[luckydug]

We won't unless it's a private individual as no bank will lend hearts or any other Scottish club anything beyond a day to day facility..

 

Exactly.

I'm actually glad that is the case.

We are never going to be able to finance a fancy new stadium . I would be uneasy about raising money on a private finance initiative.

Consolidate the support we have and re-do the main stand. If the capacity can be stretched to 23000 which is actually only another 5500 seats 

that would do us fine.

I am not saying we could not fill a larger stadium for big games. But who wants to rattle around a 30000 stadium half full for most of the games ?

Part of the reason for the surge in ST sales is that people feel they need to book their seat for the season or risk missing games due to lack of availability. That would not be the case if we had a large stadium so a poor team or bad weather would affect attendances much more than at present.

[Hackney Hearts]

A lot of the games above attracted people who probably have no intention of watching hearts again.

 

Until the next time there's a European game obviously! You could say the same about cup finals, semis and the like. It's the way it works.

 

If you're saying people didn't come to watch Hearts, but to see European opposition - perhaps some did, but I can't imagine Dundee Utd v Siroki Brijeg attracting over 28,000.

 

(Barcelona game was an exception clearly - not expecting 57k every time...)

[GavK1012]

I hope to god you don't run your own business . Seriously tho - Hearts have grown over the past decade and will grow still further. Our capacity needs to be sensible but not limiting, 20k is limiting in my opinion, 25k is sensible, 30k is too much. I think deep down we all agree with the only variance being the number.. B

Thankfully folk like you and I wont be making any worthwhile decisions about the way forward the club takes and someone sensible pragmatic with an overall picture like Miss Budge or similar will be

 

I take that to mean you do run your own business and are comparing that to running a football club directly, like for like??

[kingantti1874]

Thankfully folk like you and I wont be making any worthwhile decisions about the way forward the club takes and someone sensible pragmatic with an overall picture like Miss Budge or similar will be

 

I take that to mean you do run your own business and are comparing that to running a football club directly, like for like??

Christ take a joke. I do run my own business yes, it is successful yes - no there's no direct comparison to a football club but the basic principal of maximising your customer base and not limiting you opportunities to grow that customer base applies to all.

[Jammy T]

What were celtic and rangers attendances before they redeveloped their stadiums?

 

For example did they build bigger than their averages?

[FarmerTweedy]

I am not keen on the club going into debt again.

If that means we have to settle for what we have just now then so be it.

The positivity around the club at the moment is great and if it continues over the next couple of years we may well be able to afford to upgrade the stadium. We may well sell a player or two for decent fees plus there is  the FOH contributions. 

I would just enjoy the ride for the moment and if we are still selling out in two years time then we can make plans.

There's nothing wrong with the club being in debt, as long as the club can afford to service it, and the debt is for capital investment that will provide a bigger return. The problem is spending money the club can't afford on wages, etc, and running up debts through losses, which is what's happened in the past.

 

There's absolutely no chance of the club being able to save up the money, or raise sufficient money through transfer fees, within a couple of years or so, to be able to fund a major ground redevelopment. It may be that the board will be able to find some funds through selling naming rights or something, but there will almost certainly have to be some debt financing and there's nothing wrong with that.

[Mikey1874]

13,300 sold

[jamdunc]

13,300 sold

Great stuff. Have you done a dot count?

[johnking123]

What were celtic and rangers attendances before they redeveloped their stadiums?

 

For example did they build bigger than their averages?

They did build bigger. Celtic especial. Think they averaged 22 to 25 thousand in the early nineties. Then they improved the stadium and got more fans in.  

[Ray Gin]

What were celtic and rangers attendances before they redeveloped their stadiums?

 

For example did they build bigger than their averages?

 

 

Celtic were averaging around 30,000 in the late 80s dipping to low to mid 20,000s in the early 90s. 

 

Since Celtic Park was redeveloped post '95 their averages haven't dipped below 44,585.

[Fxxx the SPFL]

Ann Budge has appx ?40m allegedly according to a financial adviser (jambo) who I spoke to early last year she made a lot of it from selling her stake in Newall & Budge to the French company Sopra and investments since then. Having said that there is no reason why we couldn't arrange a long term mortgage to redevelop the old stand say ?15m-?20m over 30 years that could be easily achieved with a combination of foh donations and some season ticket monies but the yearly repayments on the figures I have quoted would be in the region of ?850k-?1m guesswork on my part that could be achieved on the basis of taking capacity up to 23-25k and having a guarantor Mrs B and or businesses local/national. If we could raise the funds without FoH/season ticket monies all the better. I am prepared to be shot down in flames and told that this is not achievable but I would hope we could push this forward as I would like to remain at Tynecastle.

[sac]

V Schalke 27,272

V Siroki Brijeg 28,486

V AEK Athens 32,459

V Sparta Prague 27,255

V Ferencvaros 26182

V Barcelona 57,857

Folk honestly think just 20k is big enough for us? the 4 games against hibs and rangers games last season could easily have had 25,000+

For the folk saying they dont want a stadium too big due to the empty seats on unattractive games, sadly that is the reality of having a bigger stadium and it effects all clubs round the world. Having the capability of being able to satisfy demand on big games can help the club grow significantly, its certainly worth the trade off

There have been others since as mentioned, but I'm sure Both Spurs and Liverpool Europa ties would have been close to the 30,000 mark which is another 20,000 potential ticket sales lost.

[johnking123]

There have been others since as mentioned, but I'm sure Both Spurs and Liverpool Europa ties would have been close to the 30,000 mark which is another 20,000 potential ticket sales lost.

Missing out on potentially ?250000 or more each game. The other games at murrayfield. We had give SRU a good chunk of or money. We want all the money coming to us now.

[portobellojambo1]

Celtic were averaging around 30,000 in the late 80s dipping to low to mid 20,000s in the early 90s. 

 

Since Celtic Park was redeveloped post '95 their averages haven't dipped below 44,585.

 

 

According to Celtic fans I have spoken to they reckon the average attendance at Celtic Park over the last couple of seasons has probably been around 25,000, if that. The season just ended the upper tier was only open for 1 league match, and their ST sales were just over 30,000. Since redevelopment both Celtic Park and Ibrox have significantly smaller capacities than they originally had, both grounds held in excess of 80,000. Attendances given out at games don't reflect how many people are inside the stadium, for example our last league match at Parkhead the attendance given out had everyone on the bus laughing on the way home. It was declared as just short of 47,000 and I don' think there was even 20,000 in the stadium.

[GavK1012]

Christ take a joke. I do run my own business yes, it is successful yes - no there's no direct comparison to a football club but the basic principal of maximising your customer base and not limiting you opportunities to grow that customer base applies to all.

Fire in your CV to Miss Budge, i'm sure she will be most appreciative!

[neiljb]

Missing out on potentially ?250000 or more each game. The other games at murrayfield. We had give SRU a good chunk of or money. We want all the money coming to us now.

So once every few year we miss out on 250k. In the mean time we pay X million on capital repayment and interest for a daft over investment. There is already one white elephant in Edinburgh.

A new main stand taking the capacity to 20k is all we need, and some.

[2NaFish]

There have been others since as mentioned, but I'm sure Both Spurs and Liverpool Europa ties would have been close to the 30,000 mark which is another 20,000 potential ticket sales lost.

 

There were hundreds of empty seats in the roseburn end at the liverpool game.

[Pans Jambo]

I don't want 8k seats empty, in any scenario. We don't need more than 20k at this moment in time.

Someone once said "if you build it, they will come".

[johnking123]

So once every few year we miss out on 250k. In the mean time we pay X million on capital repayment and interest for a daft over investment. There is already one white elephant in Edinburgh.

A new main stand taking the capacity to 20k is all we need, and some.

What you do is build the stadium to 25000 and try your hardest to fill it ever game. Just not special occasions.  

[JamboHeriot]

Someone once said "if you build it, they will come".

On reflection I was maybe being a bit negative, I think that yes we can sell 25k plus on big occasions, and if Ann Budge and the board think it's financially viable to build such a stadium then I trust them.

I would love us to build a sustainable fanbase of say 20k every season. We have the best opportunity in a while to do so: the club has a clear vision for the future and everyone putting money in knows it's going to good use. It will be a very interesting few years on this front that's for sure.

[Fxxx the SPFL]

So once every few year we miss out on 250k. In the mean time we pay X million on capital repayment and interest for a daft over investment. There is already one white elephant in Edinburgh.

A new main stand taking the capacity to 20k is all we need, and some.

disagree bud we need to take it up to 23-25k what is the point of an extra 3k not a lot and if you look at my post at 22.08 tonight might give us the opportunity to expand without taking a massive hit. Long term mortgage and not shelling out a fortune you will always pay interest on a loan but hopefully not at a silly rate.

[2NaFish]

What you do is build the stadium to 25000 and try your hardest to fill it ever game. Just not special occasions.

We've just not been trying to fill the stadium up till now. If only we'd thought of it!

[sac]

So once every few year we miss out on 250k. In the mean time we pay X million on capital repayment and interest for a daft over investment. There is already one white elephant in Edinburgh.

A new main stand taking the capacity to 20k is all we need, and some.

Another two or three thousand over what you suggest, wouldn't be that much of an over investment would it?. It's only daft if it were to fail. There is a possibility of some home games this season where our current capacity may not be enough, although that has yet to be seen. Worrying about empty seats is the Hibs mentality.

[wibble]

The stadium is already an optimal size. We are really at the peak of our popularity, only winning the SPL would make more people want to come along.

If your stadium does not sell out for category A games then you lose the motivation for fans to buy season tickets and it all goes horribly wrong in seasons where you under perform. Just ask the hobbits.

[wibble]

What you do is build the stadium to 25000 and try your hardest to fill it ever game. Just not special occasions.

Thanks for the advice Rod.

[Guest Bilel Mohsni]

The Hibs comparisons are just bizarre. It is along time since we had comparable sized active supports.

 

.

[Mikey1874]

The Hibs comparisons are just bizarre. It is along time since we had comparable sized active supports.

 

.

very much this

 

whatever happens careful consideration of all the elements will now happen

 

club could be bigger

[FarmerTweedy]

Just to be clear, I think I'm the only one who floated 35k, and building that in the next five years would be stupid and suicidal.  I think we can reach that, but we have to do it by sustainable expansion, not in a moonshot.

As to 19k being big enough, I have to say again -- we sold out a midweek game against Alloa last season when the title was all but won.  How is it possible we couldn't draw more for a derby or an OF game in seasons where we're threatening top two?

Well said Ugly! I think things would have to go very well indeed for a prolonged period for us to get to the point of being able to justify a 35k stadium, but I wouldn't say it's completely out of the question. As for 19k and derbies, OF games (and I'd throw in euro ties too), I think we'd have sold comfortably more than 19k against the rangers or h1b5 last season, and that's not even in the same division as the top two!

[Guest Bilel Mohsni]

Say we did have Hibs' capacity, the last season and this up-coming one we would only have 4k extra seats to sell for a sell out. Even if we just shifted another 2k, we'd hardly be rattling around a three quarters empty stadium like Hibs are. It might not be sold out, but it would still be packed.

[FarmerTweedy]

V Schalke 27,272

V Siroki Brijeg 28,486

V AEK Athens 32,459

V Sparta Prague 27,255

V Ferencvaros 26182

V Barcelona 57,857

Folk honestly think just 20k is big enough for us? the 4 games against hibs and rangers games last season could easily have had 25,000+

For the folk saying they dont want a stadium too big due to the empty seats on unattractive games, sadly that is the reality of having a bigger stadium and it effects all clubs round the world. Having the capability of being able to satisfy demand on big games can help the club grow significantly, its certainly worth the trade off[/quote

 

A lot of the games above attracted people who probably have no intention of watching hearts again. The Barcelona game especially. A 20k stadium is ample enough.

 

The Barca game is pretty irrelevant, but if you really believe thousands of people turned up to watch the mighty Siroki Brijeg that have no interest in watching Hearts, I'd suggest you're slightly overestimating just how big a draw Siroki Brijeg actually are.

 

Ther is a huge weight of evidence that indicates 20k wouldn't be sufficient, never mind ample.

[Fozzyonthefence]

I applaud you Sir. You are spot on. The people that want a wee stadium want to support a wee club. I want to support a big club with ambition.

Celtic where getting 18k before Mr McCann.

Onwards & upwards for the club.

In 10 years time we will look back and say thank feck we build this 30k plus stadium.. It's not just about making Europe too. You actually want to get through the qualifying rounds. We will need a far bigger squad but with the extra income generated from s larger capacity it can be done.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

25 - 30 years ago we had a stadium that held 29,000 and a much better team on the park.  It was full once in a blue moon, and regularly around 2/3 empty.  History shows us, even when we were competing for league titles that we don't need a 30,000 stadium - what's changed in 2015?  We'd have to be playing teams in the English Premier League or European ties week in week out for that demand and we know that's never going to happen.

[Ray Gin]

25 - 30 years ago we had a stadium that held 29,000 and a much better team on the park. It was full once in a blue moon, and regularly around 2/3 empty. History shows us, even when we were competing for league titles that we don't need a 30,000 stadium - what's changed in 2015? We'd have to be playing teams in the English Premier League or European ties week in week out for that demand and we know that's never going to happen.

You can't really compare now with 30 years ago. Football has a more diverse audience now, and Tynecastle now is a completely different experience to the terracing of old.

[Fozzyonthefence]

They did build bigger. Celtic especial. Think they averaged 22 to 25 thousand in the early nineties. Then they improved the stadium and got more fans in.  

 

I might be misinterpreting what you're saying but that was because they were absolutely pish, not because the stadium only held 25k.

[FarmerTweedy]

We won't unless it's a private individual as no bank will lend hearts or any other Scottish club anything beyond a day to day facility..

According to Celtic fans I have spoken to they reckon the average attendance at Celtic Park over the last couple of seasons has probably been around 25,000, if that. The season just ended the upper tier was only open for 1 league match, and their ST sales were just over 30,000. Since redevelopment both Celtic Park and Ibrox have significantly smaller capacities than they originally had, both grounds held in excess of 80,000. Attendances given out at games don't reflect how many people are inside the stadium, for example our last league match at Parkhead the attendance given out had everyone on the bus laughing on the way home. It was declared as just short of 47,000 and I don' think there was even 20,000 in the stadium.

Like most (all?) clubs, celtic announce tickets sold rather than folk attending, so count thousands of season ticket holders that don't go to most league games but keep their season tickets so they can go to old firm games, European ties, etc. Obviously, if they didn't have the size of stadium they do, they wouldn't be able to sell all those season tickets!

[Fozzyonthefence]

You can't really compare now with 30 years ago. Football has a more diverse audience now, and Tynecastle now is a completely different experience to the terracing of old.

 

I'm not just comparing to one season 30 years ago but throughout our history - crowds of around 10,000 are far more the norm than 30,000 or 40,000.  Even back in the days when we got the odd 40,000 crowds against the OF or Hibs look at what we got against the likes of Morton or Partick, etc.  Or more recently the Cup game against Celtic last season - what was it, around 12,000?  Ok that was a cup game but there's also been plenty recent occasions, where Tynecastle was all seated rather than the old terracing, where we haven't sold out for league games against Rangers or Celtic.  There simply isn't the demand for a 30,000 seater and it would be crazy to chuck money at it. 

 

Yes, the old stand needs demolished and replaced and a few thousand extra seats would be good but lets leave it at that.  As someone else said, I suspect our popularity has peaked and unless we start competing for league titles again on a regular basis, which is highly unlikely, crowds will probably tail off back to what they were before, just as they did after the excitement of the early Romanov years.

[Fozzyonthefence]

ame="William H. Bonney" post="4898811" timestamp="1435518164"]

 

The Barca game is pretty irrelevant, but if you really believe thousands of people turned up to watch the mighty Siroki Brijeg that have no interest in watching Hearts, I'd suggest you're slightly overestimating just how big a draw Siroki Brijeg actually are.

 

Ther is a huge weight of evidence that indicates 20k wouldn't be sufficient, never mind ample.

 

Far more evidence to suggest that 20k is sufficient - our average crowds throughout our history.  Maybe London Hearts would be able to confirm if we've ever averaged over 20k for a league campaign.  We probably have, where the occasional huge crowds against Hibs and the OFartificially bumped up the more normal crowds.  Depends what your point of view is - you might argue that if we get 15,000 for every game but there is demand for 30,000 for one New Year derby or a European tie that means 20k isn't sufficient but I don't think many would argue that it is worth borrowing and wasting millions to achieve that.  Plus it would be absolutely shite and Hibsesque to have 10,000-15,000 empty seats most weeks.

[FarmerTweedy]

25 - 30 years ago we had a stadium that held 29,000 and a much better team on the park.  It was full once in a blue moon, and regularly around 2/3 empty.  History shows us, even when we were competing for league titles that we don't need a 30,000 stadium - what's changed in 2015?  We'd have to be playing teams in the English Premier League or European ties week in week out for that demand and we know that's never going to happen.

The population of Edinburgh for starters, and it's predicted to change a lot more in the years to come. The nature of football supporting too - back in the 80s, a lot less people were season ticket holders, so far more folk would decide to go or not go to individual games based on how they felt on any given day. You'll find that most teams had big variances between their highest and lowest attendances in those days. Things changed hugely with the advent of all-seated stadiums. Families or groups of mates can't be sure of sitting with each other on a regular basis unless they have season tickets, whereas in the old days of standing at games, folk could generally stand in the same sort of location from game to game, and mates or family could just walk in and stand together, squeezing between other folk if necessary.

 

More directly about Hearts, in the early-mid eighties, we were emerging from a lengthy period of mediocrity, and that's putting it mildly. We'd spent several years bouncing about between the top and second divisions, and been generally garbage for a long time. In the mid-late eighties, we were definitely a lot better, although I suspect we suffered a bit in terms of attendances from an element of shellshock after the finish to the 85-86 season.

 

The point is, looking to the past can help to give an idea of what the future may hold, but it doesn't dictate the future. History shows us that we didn't need a 30k capacity ground in the past, but it doesn't, and can't, show us that we won't need one in the future. Which isn't to say we definitely will need that capacity either!