What will be the outcome of the General Election

[P-Dizzle]

I think the UK has started to break up with this result anyway. England has rejected Brown - if it transpires that he cobbles together a coalition with the Lib Dems, the Alliance, SDLP, SNP and PC (don't laugh), there will be an English backlash.

 

That to me is when the UK is in peril - when the English question the fairness of the Union.

 

Good point.

 

How much could this outcome have been altered, had the media supported Labour instead of Conservatives?

 

I can't really understand how people can swing to the Tories from Labour/Lib Dem.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

Good point.

 

How much could this outcome have been altered, had the media supported Labour instead of Conservatives?

 

I can't really understand how people can swing to the Tories from Labour/Lib Dem.

 

 

What do you mean? Labour TARGETED "Middle England" in 1997 and kept them onside for the best part of the fake boom.

 

Now, that reality has hit home, the "economically dry, socially wet" have moved back towards the Tories. In addition, the bigger turnout helped the Tories as stay at homes in previous elections were more than likely disaffected Tories in marginals (coupled with the underclass in Labour strongholds).

[blairdin]

On my own doorstep, a 7% swing from Labour to SNP still wasn't enough to shift Eric 'fingers' Joyce from the seat - Labour still have a big majority for this seat unfortunately. It's an impressive swing nonetheless and will make the next Scottish Parliment election interesting.

 

It's going to be a fascinating few days to see how the Cameron versus Brown battle pans out... No matter what, either the people of Scotland or the people of England wll be lumbered with a PM who has no mandate. There's no common ground at all here.

[P-Dizzle]

What do you mean? Labour TARGETED "Middle England" in 1997 and kept them onside for the best part of the fake boom.

 

Now, that reality has hit home, the "economically dry, socially wet" have moved back towards the Tories. In addition, the bigger turnout helped the Tories as stay at homes in previous elections were more than likely disaffected Tories in marginals (coupled with the underclass in Labour strongholds).

 

I know Labour won these Tory seats in 97. How are these voters more fickle than the rest of the country? I don't really get how large numbers of voters in these areas can swing between the two parties, when other areas stick to their traditional parties.

 

What makes these seats marginal? Is it simply a contrast in economic class?

 

I'm not having a go, I genuinely don't know about the voting paterns in these areas.

[leginten]

Many of the posts on the recent JKB election threads (which I assume are put up by Scots) would suggest that IMA MAROON has got a fair point. Is it just the last sentence that you count as 'slavering'?

 

He does have a point of sorts. Last night's events have demonstrated that voting remains tribal in the Central Belt. A Labour party that is to a large extent discredited received increased support in some constituencies. The constituencies of disgraceful former MPs like Ann Moffat and Jim Devine merrily returned Labour candidates with vast majorities. You have to ask yourself the question: what exactly would have to happen for Labour not to be elected in Central Scotland?

 

Pig's bladder on a stick doesn't even begin to cover it.

[The Old Tolbooth]

 

ITV have been following Nick Clegg's train all the way into St Pancreas, then by helicopter followed his Jaguar all the way to the Lib Dem headquarters in great anticipation to hear what he is going to say regarding which way he's going to turn, and the sound packed in

 

What a complete feck up!

[leginten]

 

ITV have been following Nick Clegg's train all the way into St Pancreas, then by helicopter followed his Jaguar all the way to the Lib Dem headquarters in great anticipation to hear what he is going to say regarding which way he's going to turn, and the sound packed in

 

What a complete feck up!

 

Is that near Liverpool Street?

 

[JamboAl]

How exactly?

 

Fiscal autonomy means that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland would control their own budgets and tax raising powers, and pay to Westminster only central funding where the UK is statewide e.g. Europe, Defence, Foreign Affairs. It ends chippiness at a stroke because there is no Westminster bogeyman to blame anymore, and empowers the Scottish Parliament. It also ensures the weak justification for non English MPs voting on English laws, i.e. the impact on funding for services via the Barnett Formula.

 

Pensions and Social Security aren't devolved either so transfer payments are maintained for benefits as well.

 

I don't think people realise the cost and problems of this airy faiy claptrap about fiscal autonomy.

Firstly the mechanics: would they expect the rest of the UK to allow Scotland to use the current national PAYE system or how much would it cost to set up and administer a Scottish stand-alone system?

Laws: who would decide on what you did/didn't pay tax, presumably Holyrood?

Catchment: who would pay Scottish tax? Scottish residents or people working with Scottish companies?

Rates of tax: If Scotland had different tax rates, economic migration would be rife and bearing mind the number of UK national companies with operations in Scotland, how would this affect jobs?

These are a few of the possible snags. I'm sure there are many more.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

I know Labour won these Tory seats in 97. How are these voters more fickle than the rest of the country? I don't really get how large numbers of voters in these areas can swing between the two parties, when other areas stick to their traditional parties.

 

What makes these seats marginal? Is it simply a contrast in economic class?

 

I'm not having a go, I genuinely don't know about the voting paterns in these areas.

 

 

The voting isn't as tribal as Scotland. Yet again, Labour could put monkeys in rosettes in the Central Belt and win.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

I don't think people realise the cost and problems of this airy faiy claptrap about fiscal autonomy.

Firstly the mechanics: would they expect the rest of the UK to allow Scotland to use the current national PAYE system or how much would it cost to set up and administer a Scottish stand-alone system?

Laws: who would decide on what you did/didn't pay tax, presumably Holyrood?

Catchment: who would pay Scottish tax? Scottish residents or people working with Scottish companies?

Rates of tax: If Scotland had different tax rates, economic migration would be rife and bearing mind the number of UK national companies with operations in Scotland, how would this affect jobs?

These are a few of the possible snags. I'm sure there are many more.

 

 

Hmmm, funny how countries with federations like, er, Australia, Germany and the States devolve tax raising powers to federal levels in varying forms. Funny how they can overcome the 'claptrap'!

[P-Dizzle]

So right now, a Lib-Lab coalition would need a further 23 seats to form a majority.

 

Out of the smaller parties, who can they count on already? How likely are the other parties to join in to make this possible.

[jamb0_1874]

Labour could put monkeys in rosettes in the Central Belt and win.

 

And often do.

[The Mighty Thor]

The voting isn't as tribal as Scotland. Yet again, Labour could put monkeys in rosettes in the Central Belt and win.

 

Geoff as soon as it was reported the turnout was up you could have pretty much guaranteed the outcome. The shires mobilise and the Tories romp in, the core traditional voters mobilise up here and Labour's vote increases. I think Labour did put monkeys up in several Scottish seats.

 

For me the opportunity was lost last night. The opportunity was to vote to dismantle the current electoral system and the country didn't take it. The more the core vote went to the polls the more predictable the outcome was.

 

I was tracking the Euro and The US $ from midnight and on the exit polls sterling strengthened and by 6am the arse had fallen out of it again. It may well be a fairly bumpy ride in the next few months.

[The Mighty Thor]

Has 'el Presidente' Salmond surfaced yet? Not a good night for him.

[blairdin]

Has 'el Presidente' Salmond surfaced yet? Not a good night for him.

 

A poor night in terms of seats, but if Cameron forms the next Westminster government then's it's game on for the SNP at the Hollyrood elections next year.

[P-Dizzle]

Has 'el Presidente' Salmond surfaced yet? Not a good night for him.

 

Nothing on the BBC coverage.

 

He needs a Lib-Lab coalition, if he's to get what he wants doesn't he? Looks like nothings going to happen for the next hour or two.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

Nothing on the BBC coverage.

 

He needs a Lib-Lab coalition, if he's to get what he wants doesn't he? Looks like nothings going to happen for the next hour or two.

 

 

I think a Tory minority is a better result for him to whip up the English bogeyman.

 

Ironically, this could play really well for the SNP.

[JamboAl]

Hmmm, funny how countries with federations like, er, Australia, Germany and the States devolve tax raising powers to federal levels in varying forms. Funny how they can overcome the 'claptrap'!

 

 

There is a big difference.

It may be possible in principle but economic autonomy would be the thin edge of the wedge towards separation/independence and if that happens we are on our way to Border Controls at Berwick and Carter Bar. The Tories are Unionists.

I do not propose to argue with you further on this .

I have stated my opinion and you have stated yours.

[Ryan Gosling]

Here's Salmond now.

[CavySlaveJambo]

Why do people insist on comparing this as effecting the Holyrood Elections next year?

 

People tend to vote very differently as a result of PR. It is also a different mentality.

I suppose we shall see what happens in May 2011.

[Ryan Gosling]

Salmond rules out a deal with the Tories.

[P-Dizzle]

I think a Tory minority is a better result for him to whip up the English bogeyman.

 

Ironically, this could play really well for the SNP.

 

It looks like a win-win for him and the SNP.

 

If Labour were to build a coalition, where the SNP seats were needed. He could force his funding plans through, making himself look like a champion of Scotland and improving services.

 

If the Conservatives bypass him, and go ahead with their cuts. Scotland will suffer and the SNP will gain more support.

[Hannibal Lecter]

Salmond rules out a deal with the Tories.

 

 

Don't think there was ever a chance of being a deal between the two.

[Commander Harris]

Salmond rules out a deal with the Tories.

 

Scottish Nationalists not to ally themselves with the Conservative and Unionist party shock! ?

[Charlie-Brown]

It's looking like the Lib-Dems will help put Cameron into Number 10 ... The Times forecasting another election before 2011 as the financial markets will require a decisive outcome one way or another if any party is to tackle the deep financial problems the country faces in the months ahead.

[Commander Harris]

It's looking like the Lib-Dems will help put Cameron into Number 10 ... The Times forecasting another election before 2011 as the financial markets will require a decisive outcome one way or another if any party is to tackle the deep financial problems the country faces in the months ahead.

I think the Conservatives will be able to govern as a minority government, Sinn Fein don't take up their seats so that's a handful less required and they can rely on the UUP and possibly also do a deal with the DUP. ?You're probably right about an election in the not too distant future though, minority governments historically haven't lasted very long at all. ?

 

 

 

[Charlie-Brown]

I think the Conservatives will be able to govern as a minority government, Sinn Fein don't take up their seats so that's a handful less required and they can rely on the UUP and possibly also do a deal with the DUP. ?You're probably right about an election in the not too distant future though, minority governments historically haven't lasted very long at all. ?

 

How is (any) minority Government going to be able to push through proposals for large public-spending cuts and/or higher taxes that are bound to be deeply unpopular moves? A couple of articles suggest the Lib-Dems might get some limited electoral reform for the Lords and fixed terms parliaments etc and some other changes here & there short of full PR in return for some power sharing and guaranteeing to support Cameron in the House of Commons.

[mrmarkus1981]

I wish i knew what you were all blethering about

[Commander Harris]

How is (any) minority Government going to be able to push through proposals for large public-spending cuts and/or higher taxes that are bound to be deeply unpopular moves? A couple of articles suggest the Lib-Dems might get some limited electoral reform for the Lords and fixed terms parliaments etc and some other changes here & there short of full PR in return for some power sharing and guaranteeing to support Cameron in the House of Commons.

 

hmm, having looked at the figures again you're probably right, I was slightly overestimating how close the Tories would get to the 326(factoring in the idiosyncrasies of Northern Ireland). ?Can the Conservatives and Lib Dems agree on the way forward economically though??

[Beverley]

Why do people insist on comparing this as effecting the Holyrood Elections next year?

 

People tend to vote very differently as a result of PR. It is also a different mentality.

I suppose we shall see what happens in May 2011.

 

 

exactly. i think there has been a lot tactical voting gone one, as nobody in scotland wants tory rule, and a large chunk of england desperately want rid of labour but fear too much change.

i didn't see a huge sea change for scotland anyway as this was a westminster election, and not a scottish election. roll on may 2011 cos thats when we'll get the true picture of feeling in scotland

 

 

[Maple Leaf]

How is (any) minority Government going to be able to push through proposals for large public-spending cuts and/or higher taxes that are bound to be deeply unpopular moves? A couple of articles suggest the Lib-Dems might get some limited electoral reform for the Lords and fixed terms parliaments etc and some other changes here & there short of full PR in return for some power sharing and guaranteeing to support Cameron in the House of Commons.

 

Minority governments have been the norm rather than the exception in Canada in recent years. As a result, there is a lot of compromising by the party in power, tough decisions tend to be avoided, and general elections are more frequent. They can be made to work, but are not ideal in difficult economic times.

[Commander Harris]

Why do people insist on comparing this as effecting the Holyrood Elections next year?

 

People tend to vote very differently as a result of PR. It is also a different mentality.

I suppose we shall see what happens in May 2011.

I don't think people are trying to extrapolate what might happen in that election simply based on how people have voted in Scotland in the general election(in terms of simply number of votes) - you are correct that you can't do this with the different voting systems - but a conservative party ruling with only one Scottish seat has got to be ammunition for Salmond in that campaign and will surely have some kind of effect on the result of the Scottish Parliamentary Election?

 

 

On another note, and ironically enough, PR would help the Tories in Scotland who have almost 17% of the vote. ?I also think we underestimate the amount of "disenfranchised" tories in Scotland in the many seats that are effectively two horse races. ?again, ironically enough, PR could increase the Tory vote in those seats. ?

[Randle P McMurphy]

Whatever policies the Labour or Conservative parties have is irrelevant. It is all to do with these Scottish people hating what they see as posh English folk. That is all. It is like a form of bigotry.

 

so the Scottish populace's votes are based on an anti English agenda? Pesh. the difference in the voting patterns are to do with values, tradition, history etc. oxbridge/ eton educated english leaders are entertained in any party, it's the policies and knowledge of how the parties have conducted themselves in the past that has a bearing. don't remember tony benn (Oxford educated, former peer and probably the very definition of english poshness) being hated by many scottish people.

[jamb0_1874]

So when will the next general election be???? 6 months time????

[P-Dizzle]

So when will the next general election be???? 6 months time????

 

I think if the markets have no confidence in whatever government comes out of this, there will be another.

[Charlie-Brown]

hmm, having looked at the figures again you're probably right, I was slightly overestimating how close the Tories would get to the 326(factoring in the idiosyncrasies of Northern Ireland). ?Can the Conservatives and Lib Dems agree on the way forward economically though??

 

It doesn't really matter if the policians can agree or not because imo the next governments economic policy will be dictated to it by the financial markets who want to see a real attempt to deal with public-spending deficits & goverment borrowing requirements and unless the politicians agree then there is the risk bond auctions failing, downgrading of UK credit rating, much higher interest rates and even possible IMF intervention in the worst case scenario ... if the UK wants to avoid that kind of debacle then some really tough & unpopular choices have to be made.

[The Mighty Thor]

A poor night in terms of seats, but if Cameron forms the next Westminster government then's it's game on for the SNP at the Hollyrood elections next year.

 

That'll depend on whether power hungry Cameron and ego-maniac Salmond forge any kind of alliance. If they do then i'd agree that it will be game on at the Holyrood elections.

[Charlie-Brown]

A term in opposition should do Labour good as they can regroup & reposition themselves whilst the Tories will become the most deeply unpopular Government in modern times.

[The Mighty Thor]

I think a Tory minority is a better result for him to whip up the English bogeyman.

 

Ironically, this could play really well for the SNP.

 

I'm not so sure. there's a lot of people in Scotland that fear the Scottish nationalist bogeyman as much as the english bogeyman.

[Charlie-Brown]

I'm not so sure. there's a lot of people in Scotland that fear the Scottish nationalist bogeyman as much as the english bogeyman.

 

Nationalist parties made no significant ground at this election.

[Glamorgan Jambo]

I'm delighted to report that the voters in my local constituency (The Vale of Glamorgan) have done their duty and turned a 1500 Lab majority into a 4000 tory majority. Well done Alun Cairns.

 

The regional differences are really marked. I'm comparing Wales with Scotland where the conservatives have made significant headway in the former and almost none (+1%) in the latter.

 

I'm personally quite happy with the result. I do believe we'll see some sort of arrangement Con/Lib Dem and be rid of Brown forever. This is not that palatable either to the LD activists or CON activists but will be well received by the actual voters.

 

PS Just found the first reaction to Lembit Opik's defeat from the, remarkably articulate, Gabriella. She certainly gives Clegg a blast with both barrells (ooh er missus)

 

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2010/05/07/cheeky-girl-sad-at-opik-s-defeat-91466-26399104/

[JennyJambo]

I'm not so sure. there's a lot of people in Scotland that fear the Scottish nationalist bogeyman as much as the english bogeyman.

 

Me being one.

[P-Dizzle]

Nationalist parties made no significant ground at this election.

 

But they might if people feel Scotland is getting shafted under a Tory government.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

There is a big difference.

It may be possible in principle but economic autonomy would be the thin edge of the wedge towards separation/independence and if that happens we are on our way to Border Controls at Berwick and Carter Bar. The Tories are Unionists.

I do not propose to argue with you further on this .

I have stated my opinion and you have stated yours.

 

 

Fair enough. I have a feeling that's coming anyway over the next decade.

[Beverley]

its gonna be a really interesting couple of months and i wouldn't be surprised to see another election in the very near future

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

I'm delighted to report that the voters in my local constituency (The Vale of Glamorgan) have done their duty and turned a 1500 Lab majority into a 4000 tory majority. Well done Alun Cairns.

 

The regional differences are really marked. I'm comparing Wales with Scotland where the conservatives have made significant headway in the former and almost none (+1%) in the latter.

 

I'm personally quite happy with the result. I do believe we'll see some sort of arrangement Con/Lib Dem and be rid of Brown forever. This is not that palatable either to the LD activists or CON activists but will be well received by the actual voters.

 

PS Just found the first reaction to Lembit Opik's defeat from the, remarkably articulate, Gabriella. She certainly gives Clegg a blast with both barrells (ooh er missus)

 

http://www.walesonli...91466-26399104/

 

I'm delighted Lemsip got humped. I remember downloading The Stephen Nolan Show podcast from Radio Ulster when the expenses row broke and he was justifying his ridiculous claims. Cheerio you weirdo!

[Hannibal Lecter]

its gonna be a really interesting couple of months and i wouldn't be surprised to see another election in the very near future

 

 

Wouldn't surprise me either Bev if that was to happen. Even the next few days will be pretty interesting to see how the country will be run.

[Charlie-Brown]

I'm not sure there will be another snap election soon especially as there is no guarantee it would provide a much more decisive majority for any party - I think in the interest of stable government that a deal will be worked out to give Cameron a fair kick at the ball in return for some concessions - I don't think the country can afford much more prolonged uncertainty during a period of great economic and financial uncertainty.

[JennyJambo]

its gonna be a really interesting couple of months and i wouldn't be surprised to see another election in the very near future

 

If any co-allition or agreement leaves things feeling unstable and it affects the markets, currencies, economy etc the pressure will be on to do it again. However, in reality how much will change in say 6 months time? Will a Lib-Con allegiance be enough to help them to more seats or will 6 mths of that turn enough voters against them and a new leader refresh Labour?

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

I'm not sure there will be another snap election soon especially as there is no guarantee it would provide a much more decisive majority for any party - I think in the interest of stable government that a deal will be worked out to give Cameron a fair kick at the ball in return for some concessions - I don't think the country can afford much more prolonged uncertainty during a period of great economic and financial uncertainty.

 

 

There is one big thing that might stop a rerun - money! The Tories are the only party with any money, Labour is close to bankruptcy and the Lib Dems have little to no cash anyway.