What will be the outcome of the General Election

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

Just for fun, predict the outcome of the election.

[Boris]

I'm hedging my bets here, but I think it will be as follows:

 

Either a Tory win, very small majority, or a Lib Dem/Tory coalition.

 

Labour may court the LD's but if Brown has to step down what mandate would a new leader of the Labour Party have and I doubt they would let Clegg be King....

 

 

[Billy the Jambo]

As long as posh boy cameron doesnt get in i dont care .If he gets a sniff of being PM he will be worse than that old bag thatcher

[mrmarkus1981]

I'm 29 and have never voted, where is the option for 'i dont give a monkeys'?

[Danny Wilde]

Its impossible to really tell (says me stating the bleeding obvious...)

 

Our sources of information are orchestrated, filtered and glossed by all the broadcast media. Have the LibDems had an imperceptible but steady puncture since the 1st debate ? Possibly, maybe, probably according to the polls. Having lived through simlar-ish Liberal, then SDP then LibDem false dawns, another slight letdown seems on the cards. I'm sure they'll do well .. but not quite well enough.

 

Finger in the air though.

 

Slender Tory majority of 1 to 20, and given that they're ready to jump into bed with the UUP, led by Orangeman Sir Reg Empey, then we face the prospect of Tory "rule" of Scotland in conjunction with an Orange UUP getting concessions made for N.Ireland .. whilst Scotland and 40 plus Labour MP's and up to 20 LibDem MP's sit on their hands at Westminster for the next 5 years.

 

A truly intolerable prospect.

[mrmarkus1981]

Its impossible to really tell (says me stating the bleeding obvious...)

 

Our sources of information are orchestrated, filtered and glossed by all the broadcast media. Have the LibDems had an imperceptible but steady puncture since the 1st debate ? Possibly, maybe, probably according to the polls. Having lived through simlar-ish Liberal, then SDP then LibDem false dawns, another slight letdown seems on the cards. I'm sure they'll do well .. but not quite well enough.

 

Finger in the air though.

 

Slender Tory majority of 1 to 20, and given that they're ready to jump into bed with the UUP, led by Orangeman Sir Reg Empey, then we face the prospect of Tory "rule" of Scotland in conjunction with an Orange UUP getting concessions made for N.Ireland .. whilst Scotland and 40 plus Labour MP's and up to 20 LibDem MP's sit on their hands at Westminster for the next 5 years.

 

A truly intolerable prospect.

 

You sound clued up, who should i vote for?

[Col1874]

I'm 29 and have never voted, where is the option for 'i dont give a monkeys'?

 

Or the option for 'it doesn't matter who you vote for, because they all talk p1sh anyway'

 

For example 'SNP will get rid of council tax & abandon the tram lines' eh... no they didn't because other parties voted against them...

[I P Knightley]

You sound clued up, who should i vote for?

 

 

I think, reading between the lines, he's saying "Vote Conservative".

[Danny Wilde]

You sound clued up, who should i vote for?

 

Not clued up in the least mate, just a 49 year old geezer whos seen a lot of elections and voted in all of them.

 

Geoff should have got his bookies hat on and offered some odds on these outcomes, think he'd clean up. Think I might pay a vist to Ladbrokes myself...

 

Edit: and I'll happily stand corrected by Mr. K on the UUP and their current electoral potency, I really know nothing about NI politics - as you can see !

[Big D]

The reult of this election will be undemocratic.

[Say What Again]

Our sources of information are orchestrated, filtered and glossed by all the broadcast media.

The front page of The Sun yesterday had Murdo MacLeod (yes, ex football player and current TV half-wit) 'Coming Out in Support of Cameron'.

 

I know it's The Sun but FFS! Murdo MacLeod telling us who he's going to vote for, on the front ******* page

 

On an immature personal level, he's just secured my vote for any other party

[Boris]

I think, reading between the lines, he's saying "Vote Conservative".

 

 

Naughty.....

[Boris]

Or the option for 'it doesn't matter who you vote for, because they all talk p1sh anyway'

 

For example 'SNP will get rid of council tax & abandon the tram lines' eh... no they didn't because other parties voted against them...

 

 

But they would have had they won a majority, because then they would be able to.

 

You can't pull up a party for not doing something if they are unable to do so due to the result of the election!

[Cade]

There is also the terrifying prospect of a Tory/DUP/UKIP coalition government.

 

Worst possible scenario.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

Not clued up in the least mate, just a 49 year old geezer whos seen a lot of elections and voted in all of them.

 

Geoff should have got his bookies hat on and offered some odds on these outcomes, think he'd clean up. Think I might pay a vist to Ladbrokes myself...

 

Edit: and I'll happily stand corrected by Mr. K on the UUP and their current electoral potency, I really know nothing about NI politics - as you can see !

 

 

The UUP will, at best, win 1 seat (if Empey can pip McCrea in South Antrim). The DUPes will win 8-10 seats (depending if they can gain South Belfast from the SDLP) and Lady Hermon will win North Down but she is Labour leaning.

[Ulysses]

YouGov's final poll - sample size of 6,483.

 

Con 35

Lab 28

LD 28

Oth 9

 

YouGov also polled 2,000 people in Labour-held marginals. This poll suggested that the swing to the Conservatives and to the Liberal Democrats in those constituencies would be higher than the national average.

[2NaFish]

tories by under 20 seats. possibly more.

 

this makes me a sad panda.

[Ulysses]

Final poll by Populus - sample size of 2,505.

 

Con 37

Lab 28

LD 27

Oth 8

[Ulysses]

YouGov also produced its last opinion poll for Scotland, showing almost unchanged figures from the results of the 2005 General Election; Con 17 (+1), Lab 37 (-2), LibDem 22 (-1), SNP 21 (+3).

 

On that basis, they would expect only two seats to change hands, both Labour losses. Fred Mackintosh would take a seat for the Liberal Democrats in Edinburgh South, and Annabelle Ewing would win Ochil and South Perthshire for the SNP, unless Gordon Banks pulls off a miracle save.

[kitster]

Final poll by Populus - sample size of 2,505.

 

Con 37

Lab 28

LD 27

Oth 8

 

 

That's still a hung parliament though isn't it? Correct me if wrong Uly I'm not exactly sure the lead the tories need to win.

[Ulysses]

That's still a hung parliament though isn't it? Correct me if wrong Uly I'm not exactly sure the lead the tories need to win.

 

With a uniform national swing 37-28-27 would give the Conservatives about 290 seats, and Labour about 250.

[Ulysses]

Final poll by Harris for the Daily Mail - sample size of 3,406.

 

Con 35

Lab 29

LD 27

Oth 9

[Cade]

A Party needs 326 to have a working majority.

 

Anything less than that and deals will have to be done.

This either means Labour talk to Libs, Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru etc......or the Tories talking to DUP, UKIP, BNP....

[Ulysses]

Final poll by ICM for the Guardian - sample size of 2,022.

 

Con 36

Lab 28

LD 26

Oth 10

[Ulysses]

Final poll by ComRes for ITV - sample size of 1,025.

 

Con 37

Lab 28

LD 28

Oth 7

[2NaFish]

just to step away for the changes to our country that could arise tomorrow, this looks all looks pretty tight for any tory victory/hung parliament. tomorrow night's tv as the results come in should be great.

[The Doctor]

Lib Lab coalition with with Brown going and some young pup (Milliband?) becoming PM as a deal/sweetner so Libs get their way on electoral reform, which I think is a deal breaker for them.

 

Or maybe MPs can grow the **** up and start voting as instructed by the electorate who put them there and not just follow the party whip.

 

No wait... that would be democracy rather than the sham we suffer at the moment.

[kitster]

Lib Lab coalition with with Brown going and some young pup (Milliband?) becoming PM as a deal/sweetner so Libs get their way on electoral reform, which I think is a deal breaker for them.

 

Or maybe MPs can grow the **** up and start voting as instructed by the electorate who put them there and not just follow the party whip.

 

No wait... that would be democracy rather than the sham we suffer at the moment.

 

 

Well said it's a sham currently. Why is it that electoral reform has only been on Labour's agenda since they knew they'd be struggling? Same as many things in 13 years they said they'd do. Reform the banks? You were more than happy to turn the eye when it made you money.. Gordon told Paxman I tried to set up a global financial power to regulate the system we work under that I failed but don't think I didn't try. The FSA have been toothless in the good times under his watch..but you took a hard line globally and all the other heads of state said no? Sorry I don't buy that.

[Danny Wilde]

From todays 'Independent'. All the main outcomes discussedbelow:

 

So what will we wake up to on Friday morning? One of the below

By Nigel Morris, Thursday, 6 May 2010

 

David Cameron wins an overall majority

 

Huge sighs of relief echo round Tory high command as the victory ? which seemed unlikely hours earlier ? is confirmed.

 

David Cameron moves into Downing Street and immediately announces the make-up of his Cabinet: William Hague is confirmed as Foreign Secretary, George Osborne as Chancellor, Michael Gove as Schools Secretary and Andrew Lansley as Health Secretary. But there is disappointment for Chris Grayling, who had hoped of becoming Home Secretary; the job goes to Jeremy Hunt.

 

In a downbeat speech Mr Cameron warns of deep public spending cuts ahead, confirming that an austerity Budget will take place within 50 days; does that mean the rate of VAT will rise? The National Security Council meets to discuss the Afghanistan war.

 

The Queen's Speech on 25 May includes moves to set up "free" schools, scrap identity cards and regional assemblies, and impose a public sector pay freeze for a year.

 

Gordon Brown announces his resignation as Labour leader. David Miliband and Alan Johnson are first out of the traps to succeed him; Ed Balls is conspicuously absent, having lost his seat. The number of Liberal Democrat seats increases only slightly: Nick Clegg can only promise a breakthrough at the next election.

 

The Tories fall just short of a majority

 

Gordon Brown moves out of Downing Street and is replaced by David Cameron. The new Prime Minister announces he will govern as head of a minority administration and set out his programme in May and budget in June.

 

He warns the other parties that a new general election will be held if they club together to defeat either measure. A formal deal with the Liberal Democrats is impossible because of Nick Clegg's insistence on holding a referendum on electoral reform; there is little common ground with the Scottish National Party or Plaid Cymru.

 

Mr Cameron holds talks with the Democratic Unionist Party's nine MPs over an informal deal. Their price is a promise to cushion Northern Ireland from spending cuts.

 

Mr Brown announces he will step down at the Labour conference. Jockeying for position to succeed him begins.

 

The Tories have the most votes and seats, with Labour second and the Liberal Democrats third

 

David Cameron tops the poll after the anti-Tory vote divides the electorate. Labour squeezes ahead of the Liberal Democrats.

 

The Tory leader declares he has won a moral victory and tells Gordon Brown to pack his bags. But the Prime Minister has other ideas and is advised by the Cabinet Secretary, Sir Gus O'Donnell, that he is entitled to try to form an administration.

 

Because Labour is well short of the finishing post, he is forced to go cap in hand to Nick Clegg. The Liberal Democrat leader drops his demand for Mr Brown's resignation. The cost of his support is a referendum on full-blown electoral reform and Cabinet seats for himself, Vince Cable, David Laws and Chris Huhne.

 

The Labour and Lib Dem grassroots are in uproar over sharing power with the other, but their leaders sell it to them as the price of dealing with the economic crisis.

 

Mr Cameron occupies the high moral ground, condemning the deal, but faces flak from the Tory Right after failing to deliver victory.

 

The Tories are the biggest party and the Liberal Democrats win more votes than Labour

 

Although Labour is not too far behind the Tories in terms of seats, coming third in the popular vote is a shattering psychological blow for the party. A dejected Gordon Brown realises it is unrealistic to try and hang on and resigns.

 

David Cameron declares victory but faces an uphill struggle to negotiate a stable accommodation with the resurgent Liberal Democrats. The two parties agree there is too little common ground for a formal deal. Instead they reach a "supply and confidence" agreement under which the Liberal Democrats back the Tories in major votes.

 

In return Mr Cameron has to design policies with an orange tinge: income tax thresholds are raised and voting reform promised for all but Westminster elections.

 

Labour turns in on itself, with David Miliband, Ed Balls, Alan Johnson and Harriet Harman slugging it out. Ed Miliband emerges as the dark horse candidate.

 

Labour has most MPs, but is second in the popular vote behind the Tories

 

The old survivor Gordon Brown declares himself the winner and, buoyed by the advice of Sir Gus O'Donnell, the Cabinet Secretary, says he will be staying on.

 

Labour strategists are relieved after a traumatic election campaign, but even harder work lies ahead of them. Negotiations with the Liberal Democrats are tortuous. Nick Clegg says it is not for him to interfere in selecting the Labour leader, so Mr Brown's position is safe. But Mr Clegg drives a hard bargain for propping up the Brown government: a referendum on fully-fledged electoral reform, ID cards are scrapped and more money pumped into primary schools in deprived areas.

 

Labour comes third in the popular vote, but has most MPs

 

The first-past-the-post voting system is fatally discredited as the nightmare scenario dreaded by all parties comes true.

 

Gordon Brown insists he wants to stay on, but immediately faces huge recriminations. David Cameron demands his resignation, Nick Clegg makes clear he will not throw a lifeline to a rejected Prime Minister and several Cabinet ministers concede his days are numbered. Mr Brown walks and the Cabinet invokes the Labour rulebook to anoint Alan Johnson as acting leader (although Harriet Harman would fight hard for the job) pending a formal election.

 

Mr Clegg negotiates a deal with Labour, including a referendum on proportional representation and several Cabinet posts, justifying the move to his activists on the grounds of the economic crisis.

 

Tories begin to come round to the merits of electoral reform.

 

Labour falls just short of winning a majority

 

Gordon Brown announces he has secured a historic fourth consecutive election victory.

 

He says he will appoint a new Cabinet, will set out his agenda in the Queen's Speech on 25 May and announce his new government's spending plans in the autumn. Alistair Darling, Lord Mandelson, Alan Johnson and Ed Balls are all confirmed in their jobs.

 

There is still the practical problem of his lack of a parliamentary majority. Mr Brown ostentatiously ignores the "Liberals" and promises the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Democratic Unionist Party that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will receive sympathetic treatment.

 

The Liberal Democrats are deflated after only a marginal rise in numbers of MPs, while David Cameron faces a right-wing backlash at his failure to deliver power. He tells his critics that Labour's precarious position means another election could happen soon.

 

Gordon Brown wins an overall majority

 

Eight days after he insulted Labour voter Gillian Duffy, Mr Brown pulls off the most remarkable political comeback in recent times.

 

Buoyed by the result, he reshuffles his Cabinet to make his prot?g?, Ed Balls, Chancellor and promotes Ed Miliband as Home Secretary. The Queen's Speech includes referendums on the alternative vote system and reforming the House of Lords, while the comprehensive spending review in the autumn includes heavy cuts to transport, housing and social security.

 

The Liberal Democrats lapse into soul-searching, while David Cameron faces insurrection. David Davis and Edward Leigh demand his resignation and, after a futile attempt to cling on, Mr Cameron is replaced by Liam Fox.

[Ulysses]

At this stage the outcome is next to impossible to predict. But anyway.....

 

I reckon the vote share will be:

 

Con 35.5

Lab 27.5

LD 26.5

Oth 10.5

 

As for seats, I reckon:

 

Con 293

Lab 245

LD 79

Oth 32

 

All that adds up to 649, because one seat won't be contested until the end of May - but the Conservatives will win it anyway.

 

The figure of 32 for others assumes that "others" will hold/win seats in Blaenau Gwent, Poplar & Limehouse and Wyre Forest - but only Blaenau Gwent on that list can be regarded as safe. I'm reckoning on the SNP gaining Ochil & South Perthshire. Despite a falling vote share, I reckon Plaid Cymru will gain two seats (Ynys Mon and Arfon) on the back of a poor Labour performance. I'm not calling the NI constituences.

 

If I'm right, that would leave the Conservatives with 293 (and one to follow). Can they set up a minority government with that number?

[shaun.lawson]

I've gone for a Conservative and other (that is to say, Unionist) coalition. For the record, the News Editor of the Sunday Express, who I met by chance while leafletting and doorstepping earlier, thinks the Tories will win outright with a majority of - wait for it - two seats. I've no clue whatsoever if he'll be proven accurate, but mention it just out of curiosity in case he is accurate.

 

Mind you, if such a right wing paper thinks the Tories will barely win at all, the smart money must surely be on a hung Parliament. And personally, I just wonder if Labour's share of the vote might be bigger than people expect: big enough not to win on vote share, but set off all sorts of chaos in terms of seat numbera and hence, undermine our electoral system for good.

 

This time 24 hours from now, we should have some idea; but right now, who knows?

[shaun.lawson]

I'm hedging my bets here, but I think it will be as follows:

 

Either a Tory win, very small majority, or a Lib Dem/Tory coalition.

 

Labour may court the LD's but if Brown has to step down what mandate would a new leader of the Labour Party have and I doubt they would let Clegg be King....

 

Tne problem with your thesis, Boris, is while a good number of Lib Dem voters (ie. in south-west England) would like it, the Lib Dem membership wouldn't stand for it: because Cameron will never give way on electoral reform. I think the only way we could form a coalition is if Labour won on share of the vote but fell short of a majority; and as we all know, that surely ain't happening.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

My prediction is that the Tories will win by 20. I've had that gut feeling for months.

 

A lot will depend on 'soft Tories' deserting the Lib Dems in the belief they will prop up Labour.

[ToadKiller Dog]

The liberal vote will drop always does on the day , I think the Tory party will sneak enough with the help of there Northern Irish allies and will make a fecking mess of it with an election again around October or this time next year .

[Boris]

Tne problem with your thesis, Boris, is while a good number of Lib Dem voters (ie. in south-west England) would like it, the Lib Dem membership wouldn't stand for it: because Cameron will never give way on electoral reform. I think the only way we could form a coalition is if Labour won on share of the vote but fell short of a majority; and as we all know, that surely ain't happening.

 

 

Electoral reform is the key and I think even Cameron knows this despite his natural Tory coldness to it. The Libs HAVE to insist on it or no deal.

 

The reason I think a Tory/Lib coalition would be in the Tory interest would be

 

a) it's not Labour so going by the BoE chap who said whoever wins will be unelectable in the future both the Tories and the Libs can say "look, we tried to sort out the mess left to us by Labour and they would, I think, get some sympathy for that.

 

b ) if they do f-up, then the Tories can always say, "look, we tried coalition, the Libs held us back, it was their fault" added to point a) would seem a rather kind get out clause for "Dave" and his band of charlatans.

[The Vulture]

I really hope it is a hung parliament as I have never experienced one before.

 

The Conservative party will win more seats than anyone and probably have 1 MP in Scotland.

[Mac_fae_Gillie]

Truely an election in which I just dont care...

The parties are so close on the major issues so its down to personnality..heck we hate them all.

 

The libs are a little far left now but I don't think the public is ready for more taxes to help fund the unemployed.

I think the best out come will be a Tory win...AND I HATE CAMERON and his Eton chums with a vengence but we need a fresh parliment.One that can make a few changes without the evil Uturn phrase cropping up in the press.

But if the Houses of Parliment happen to be destroyed on friday with them all inside,thats cool too.

[P-Dizzle]

I really don't want the Conservatives in. I don't care if having them in for one term will keep them out for a generation, I don't want them in.

 

I made my first trip to the polling station today, there were Tory signs everywhere along the way. Edinburgh West is a strong Lib Dem seat, only the Conservatives seemed to be fighting this one. I felt a little let down that the Lib Dems seemed complacent, I'd had Conservatives at the door and letters in the mail. But no other party came to my door, I'd liked to have spoken to the Labour candidate or had something from the Lib Dems to ensure me that they were replacing John Barrett with a good candidate.

 

It wasn't going to change my vote, but I'd have liked to speak to someone other than the Tories, whom I have no interest in voting for.

 

 

The Labour-Lib Dem coalition is sounding quite good to me. I'm not that sure about the intricacies of a hung parlement, or how this coalition could happen when the Conservatives will be strong too. But I share views with both of those parties, and I think it would be ideal to give the Lib Dems a stronger say and keep Labour's economic plans going.

[The Vulture]

How many seats do people think the Conservative party will get in Scotland ? I would say max 3.

[Charlie-Brown]

Any government needs a majority of at least 20 seats because they usually lose at least that many during a parliament term due to by-elections cause by MP's that die, retire, stand down etc.

[leginten]

YouGov also produced its last opinion poll for Scotland, showing almost unchanged figures from the results of the 2005 General Election; Con 17 (+1), Lab 37 (-2), LibDem 22 (-1), SNP 21 (+3).

 

On that basis, they would expect only two seats to change hands, both Labour losses. Fred Mackintosh would take a seat for the Liberal Democrats in Edinburgh South, and Annabelle Ewing would win Ochil and South Perthshire for the SNP, unless Gordon Banks pulls off a miracle save.

 

That would be a truly astonishing outcome. If the Lib Dems end up with a lower percentage of the vote than last time, I'll be tempted to eat any sort of hat I'm offered. I'm expecting a dip for Labour and the SNP and an increase for the Tories and Lib Dems.

[I.J]

I think that the outcome will be that no matter who wins, the average punter in the UK will get bent over, pumped hard and told that they loved it.

[Therapist]

The removal company will be calling at 10 Downing Street tomorrow to assist our hapless, useless PM to move out. Good riddance.

[Rick Grimes]

sadly, I'm guessing we'll see a single figure Conservative majority. which would be a massive blow - this is a once in a generation chance to get through electoral reform which would enfranchise the millions who live outside the 150 or so swing seats.

 

I'm in Edinburgh East where I think the SNP & Lib Dems will cut each other's throats enough for Labour to hold. with that being the case I've voted Lib Dem as their policies are reasonably in line with my own & every vote they get strengthens the case for PR.

 

as an aside, my old flatmate is the Labour candidate in Edinburgh South - if I lived there he'd not be expecting my vote anyway (he's a good lad, I just have an aversion to Labour after watching them abandoning principle after principle from 1983 onwards). he'd probably think I'd be voting Conservative after some shocking decision making of mine when we were 18 tho....

[Rick Grimes]

predictions on share of vote

 

Con 37.5

Labour 28.5

Libs 25

Others 9

 

 

these numbers of course may make my above prediction unlikely but I think the Tories will do better in the marginals

[leginten]

I didn't hear any mention of exit polls on the news earlier this evening. I'm sure they have always featured in previous election reporting long before the polling stations have closed.

[2NaFish]

very poor exit poll result for the lib dems. makes me dubious of the whole thing, i dont see them losing 3 seats...

[heartsfc_fan]

very poor exit poll result for the lib dems. makes me dubious of the whole thing, i dont see them losing 3 seats...

 

Bah, I voted Lib Dems. Wasted vote etc

 

Should've stayed indoors

[Coco]

Sky exit poll

 

Conservatives 307 (up 93)

Labour 255

Lib Dem 59 (down 3)

Others 29

 

Hung parliament territory - should hopefully take care of Darling, Balls, Bercow, Smith.

[portobellojambo1]

I didn't hear any mention of exit polls on the news earlier this evening. I'm sure they have always featured in previous election reporting long before the polling stations have closed.

 

Prediction is for a hung parliament, based on the exit polls

 

Conservatives 307

Labour 255

Liberal Democrats 59

Others 29

 

Personally think exit polls are a waste of time, any time I've been asked who I voted for I say something completely opposite from the truth.