What will be the outcome of the General Election

[shaun.lawson]

I said during the campaign that I thought he was strangely muted on this, the issue most likely to strike a chord with the millions of people in the UK who regard themselves as disenfranchised by FPTP. Whether or not pushing it further up the campaign agenda would have changed the election outcome I've no idea, but I think any Lib Dem insistence on PR as a precondition for co-operation/coalition is now considerably weakened by the issue's low profile before the election.

 

In more recent campaigns, we've been quieter on PR and Europe because it almost never plays well with the electorate. The latter for obvious reasons; the former because it's often made us look like academics or intellectuals in an ivory tower, out of touch with the day-to-day concerns of most people.

 

But given the nature of this campaign, I share your surprise at it not being talked about more; and can only assume that Clegg already knows that first, Cameron would never agree to it; and second, Labour would never agree to us insisting on Brown's exit.

[Glamorgan Jambo]

You can guarantee that the Tories will offer Cable the chancellor of the exchequers post

 

They won't. He might get the No 2 job at the Treasury.

[shaun.lawson]

No thank you William Wallace.

 

As I've always said on here, Scottish independence is a matter for the people of Scotland only. But the democratic deficit in any Tory government viz. both Scotland and Wales is horrendous, and will certainly help the SNP's cause; and beyond that, what the heck will millions and millions of English people do if Scotland ever do break away? We'd be stuck with the Tories forever!

 

So all I can say is: God bless Scotland. Not that that's any consolation, of course.

[stirlo]

Indeed not! It exists in the first place because party activists were suspicious of how far Paddy Ashdown wanted to go in co-operation with Labour: correctly so given he was seriously discussing a merger with Tony Blair. There is no chance on earth of a formal deal with the Tories surviving the triple lock; and even an informal arrangement would struggle mightily to get through.

 

Anyway, having played fantasy budgets last week, let's play fantasy negotiations now. If I were Nick Clegg, what would I do?

 

1. Have a sine qua non that we would not enter into government with anyone without a written commitment to proportional representation, a referendum on it within one year in which the coalition advocated a 'yes' vote, and general election immediately following it.

 

2. Drag out talks with the Tories as long as possible, while putting out feelers that if Brown stood down, we'd enter negotiations with Labour. Hopefully, Labour MPs would pick up this baton and get the message to him: we could not prop Brown up under any circumstances.

 

3. If we were not given the commitments we were looking for by either the Tories or a Brown-less Labour, my final option would be to call for a three-party government of national unity, ideally suited to deal with the economic problems. It would be a lot harder to demand electoral reform in such circumstances; but I would assume this option had no chance of being put into practice anyway.

 

4. In the absence of any of the above, we'd reluctantly allow the Tories to govern via a stance of armed neutrality, in which we'd abstain on most issues, but oppose anything too extreme or right wing. This option has to be a fall-back, because in my opinion, the Lib Dems above all literally cannot afford another election to happen quickly.

 

Trouble is, from all I've heard of Clegg over the last couple of days, I'm unconvinced he's pushing PR anything like as much as he should be. I think he believes our negotiating position is too weak, and he's already looking at option 4 or a variation of it in order to preserve the party's future prospects, with electoral reform forced through at a later date. But if not now, when?

 

I suspect that Clegg will try hard to do a deal with the Tories. Why? Because despite the Lib-dems poor showing they have the possibility of being part of the government - and that's a chance that Clegg will be determined not to throw away. Logistically, a pact with Labour would be very difficult because of the number of parties that would have to be involved. IIRC you would need a minimum of 4 parties to form such a coalition - and even if you could form one, keeping it together for any period of time would not be easy.

 

Option 3 in your post is one that had crossed my mind too - but its not been suggested much from the media. It would be very interesting if such a thing happened and given the mess this country is in it might not be the worst outcome from the point of view of the British public.

 

Whatever happens, I just hope that we get electoral reform into the bargain - as if that happens the days of Labour/Tory having it their all their own way could be over. Unfortunately I have my doubts either Labour or the Tories will agree to serious reform of the voting system.

[Glamorgan Jambo]

As I've always said on here, Scottish independence is a matter for the people of Scotland only. But the democratic deficit in any Tory government viz. both Scotland and Wales is horrendous, and will certainly help the SNP's cause; and beyond that, what the heck will millions and millions of English people do if Scotland ever do break away? We'd be stuck with the Tories forever!

 

So all I can say is: God bless Scotland. Not that that's any consolation, of course.

 

Not particularly in Wales.

 

25% of the vote, 20% of the seats. 2.5X the vote of Plaid who have carefully distanced themselves from Salmonds quote to avoid upsetting their, mostly rural, support base. And no appetite among the population for separation, although they are upset about the Barnett formula which disadvantages Wales almost as much as it advantages Scotland.

 

The conservative party in Scotland needs to take a long hard look at itself, as do Scottish conservative politicians who represent down south constituencies (Fox, Rifkind, Cruikshank etc)

[Big D]

No thank you William Wallace.

 

Is that it? That's your reply on a thread about politics? Just as well you won't be allowed to vote for another 8 years.

[Mr Romanov Saviour of HMFC]

Is that it? That's your reply on a thread about politics? Just as well you won't be allowed to vote for another 8 years.

 

[Randle P McMurphy]

I think you are being too kind. They know exactly what they are doing, they are bitter and twisted.

Quite happy to be a bitter and twisted zombie if the alternative is to share your's and therapist's reasoned and informed views

[IMA MAROON]

Quite happy to be a bitter and twisted zombie if the alternative is to share your's and therapist's reasoned and informed views

 

I'm not anti-Labour party. I was happy when Blair was elected, I agreed with him when he gave the go ahead to invade Iraq. He gets plenty abuse for that.

 

It's different now. You can see that for yourself.

 

For Scotland to vote in Labour regardless is sad.

[davemclaren]

I'm not anti-Labour party. I was happy when Blair was elected, I agreed with him when he gave the go ahead to invade Iraq. He gets plenty abuse for that.

 

It's different now. You can see that for yourself.

 

For Scotland to vote in Labour regardless is sad.

 

Correct, those darn leftie Scots should have more respect for Bullingdon club members.

[Ulysses]

1. Have a sine qua non that we would not enter into government with anyone without a written commitment to proportional representation, a referendum on it within one year in which the coalition advocated a 'yes' vote, and general election immediately following it.

 

 

You might want to think this one through again, given that it is (pardon the torturous language) incapable of being implemented.

[Randle P McMurphy]

I'm not anti-Labour party. I was happy when Blair was elected, I agreed with him when he gave the go ahead to invade Iraq. He gets plenty abuse for that.

 

It's different now. You can see that for yourself.

 

For Scotland to vote in Labour regardless is sad.

 

no i think its now obvious from your responses that rather than labour voters being anti English, it is you who is in fact anti Scots.

[Coco]

Glad to see that the raincloud coalition of Labour/Lib Dem/PC/SNP/Green and anyone else they can drum up seems to have fallen apart already.

 

One great thing if the Liberal/Conservative coalition gets going - and a couple of sensible Lib Dems (ie not Cable/Hughes/Campbell) get Cabinet posts is that there would have to be a return to real Cabinet Government and a depoliticised Civil Service.

[Therapist]

They won't. He might get the No 2 job at the Treasury.

 

Correct..Cable is an utter joke. Mr Hindsight/Bumbling Grandad.

[Randle P McMurphy]

They won't. He might get the No 2 job at the Treasury.

 

selective quoting mate, the sentence actually stated this or another LD MP being shoehorned into a high profile cabinet role.

 

it is actually in your lot's interest to have Cable in that role as it then provides a fall guy for all of the unpopular spending cuts and tax hikes that are on the horizon.

[shaun.lawson]

You might want to think this one through again, given that it is (pardon the torturous language) incapable of being implemented.

 

OK. A referendum as soon as it is possible to organise and implement it. Didn't Brown say November 2011 for a referendum on AV? The danger, which I'm sure you appreciate, is the further away the date is, the more chance there would be of either the opposition bringing a coalition down; or the larger party in a coalition betraying the Lib Dems and calling an early election.

 

I must say though: while I have the utmost respect for David Laws' intelligence and abilities, when I hear him talking about "the national interest" and "rising above party issues", I worry.

[Therapist]

Gordon Brown will be lying in his bed tonight with a pillow over his head determined to believe this isn't happening. He is so deluded and out of touch with the electorate that I'm sure he simply cannot comprehend that he's been voted out.

 

Cyclops has been a terrible Chancellor and PM, and his squatter-ish undignified behaviour at the moment is not exactly enhancing how history will view him.

 

Gordon - you are an embarrassment to your nation and the Scottish region.

[shaun.lawson]

Incidentally: on this whole "the Lib Dems and Tories are polar opposites" thing: this is true on some issues, but not others.

 

The Lib Dems are essentially in politics at all as reformers: the natural heirs to the Whigs in a sense, whereas the Conservatives and their forerunners have pretty much always stood in the way of reform, and been on the wrong side of history. But what separates us from Labour is our social liberalism: ID cards? 42 days detention without charge? Beyond that, we tend to have deep rooted approaches to crime or drugs: looking at the causes of these problems, not merely the symptoms.

 

But some Lib Dems - Cable, Laws, Clegg according to suspicions people harbour - are centrist on economic issues. Though we don't favour immediate cuts in the way Cameron does, there was always the possibility we'd actually have cut the most over a whole Parliament: albeit while ensuring the poorest were least hit. In other words, there is a meeting point between some Lib Dems and the Tories on the economy; and there's another meeting point between the whole of our party and some Tories on some social issues.

 

Europe, immigration and inheritance tax, though? I think not.

[shaun.lawson]

Gordon Brown will be lying in his bed tonight with a pillow over his head determined to believe this isn't happening. He is so deluded and out of touch with the electorate that I'm sure he simply cannot comprehend that he's been voted out.

 

Cyclops has been a terrible Chancellor and PM, and his squatter-ish undignified behaviour at the moment is not exactly enhancing how history will view him.

 

Gordon - you are an embarrassment to your nation and the Scottish region.

 

Brown's behaviour at present is entirely constitutionally correct. If you don't like it, I suggest you join the Liberal Democrats in calling for immediate constitutional and electoral reform.

[Ulysses]

OK. A referendum as soon as it is possible to organise and implement it. Didn't Brown say November 2011 for a referendum on AV? The danger, which I'm sure you appreciate, is the further away the date is, the more chance there would be of either the opposition bringing a coalition down; or the larger party in a coalition betraying the Lib Dems and calling an early election.

 

Your problem isn't a referendum. It's the time it would take to get a constituency boundary review carried out and the necessary legislation passed.

 

If Clegg is serious about electoral reform he has to persuade his party to go into coalition with the Conservatives on the basis of a four-year programme for government.

[Therapist]

Brown's behaviour at present is entirely constitutionally correct

 

Sorry, but even a political street-fighter like Harold Wilson would have stood aside by now. Brown is so out of touch, he'd do an early 1945 Hitler proud.

[shaun.lawson]

Your problem isn't a referendum. It's the time it would take to get a constituency boundary review carried out and the necessary legislation passed.

 

If Clegg is serious about electoral reform he has to persuade his party to go into coalition with the Conservatives on the basis of a four-year programme for government.

 

Question about constituency boundaries. What are the factors which the Electoral Commission consider as things stand right now (apart from the ruling party's gerrymandering, that is)? The Lib Dems were screwed by a number of boundary changes - and for example, Pinner, where my parents live, was removed from marginal Harrow West, and repositioned in Ruislip and Northwood, one of the safest Tory seats in the country. Why? What sense is there in creating even safer seats than before?

[shaun.lawson]

Sorry, but even a political street-fighter like Harold Wilson would have stood aside by now. Brown is so out of touch, he'd do an early 1945 Hitler proud.

 

Brown shouldn't stand aside while no coalition has been agreed. Like it or not, the country needs a Prime Minister. What are your views on coalitions, by the way?

[davemclaren]

Gordon Brown will be lying in his bed tonight with a pillow over his head determined to believe this isn't happening. He is so deluded and out of touch with the electorate that I'm sure he simply cannot comprehend that he's been voted out.

 

Cyclops has been a terrible Chancellor and PM, and his squatter-ish undignified behaviour at the moment is not exactly enhancing how history will view him.

 

Gordon - you are an embarrassment to your Kingdom and the Scottish nation.

 

 

Fixed that for you. As a confirmed North Brit you won't know any better.

[Therapist]

Brown shouldn't stand aside while no coalition has been agreed. Like it or not, the country needs a Prime Minister. What are your views on coalitions, by the way?

 

Brown should resign immediately and let Mr Cameron assume the PM role;

 

1. Brown's been soundly whupped.

 

2. Mr Cameron is the leader of the party with the largest number of seats by far.

 

If Mr Cameron has to resign because he can't form a coalition administration or has to resort to a minority government then so be it.

 

But Cyclops has never been elected, has ruined the country, is hated by his "colleagues", and to see him desperately cling on to the keys of Number 10 is absolutely disgusting.

 

Cyclops - MAN UP and RESIGN

[Ulysses]

Question about constituency boundaries. What are the factors which the Electoral Commission consider as things stand right now (apart from the ruling party's gerrymandering, that is)? The Lib Dems were screwed by a number of boundary changes - and for example, Pinner, where my parents live, was removed from marginal Harrow West, and repositioned in Ruislip and Northwood, one of the safest Tory seats in the country. Why? What sense is there in creating even safer seats than before?

 

It's probably best to ignore some of the pejorative bitterness in your post, and get straight to the technical issues involved.

 

You'll need to read the reports of the Boundary Commission for England (and the other countries where appropriate) to get a sense of the general factors taken into consideration. But if you want an understanding of the decision-making process as it applied to the Boroughs of Harrow and Hillingdon, have a look at the report at this link (pages 83-88).

[davemclaren]

Brown should resign immediately and let Mr Cameron assume the PM role;

 

1. Brown's been soundly whupped.

 

2. Mr Cameron is the leader of the party with the largest number of seats by far.

 

If Mr Cameron has to resign because he can't form a coalition administration or has to resort to a minority government then so be it.

 

But Cyclops has never been elected, has ruined the country, is hated by his "colleagues", and to see him desperately cling on to the keys of Number 10 is absolutely disgusting.

 

Cyclops - MAN UP and RESIGN

 

Perhaps Cameron doesn't want the PM role without an arrangement in place. We need a resolution soon but I think it's right that Brown stays in power for a few days until things are resolved as government still has top go on.

[Ulysses]

Brown should resign immediately and let Mr Cameron assume the PM role;

 

1. Brown's been soundly whupped.

 

2. Mr Cameron is the leader of the party with the largest number of seats by far.

 

If Mr Cameron has to resign because he can't form a coalition administration or has to resort to a minority government then so be it.

 

But Cyclops has never been elected, has ruined the country, is hated by his "colleagues", and to see him desperately cling on to the keys of Number 10 is absolutely disgusting.

 

Cyclops - MAN UP and RESIGN

 

 

You forgot to mention that Gordon Brown smells of poo.

 

[shaun.lawson]

Just indulging in some fantasy politics again (and no, I don't mean Gloria de Piero): imagine how a rainbow coalition of the centre-left might look...

 

Prime Minister: Alan Johnson (Labour)

 

Deputy Prime Minister: Vincent Cable (Liberal Democrat)

 

Chancellor of the Exchequer: Ed Balls (Labour)

 

Foreign Secretary: David Miliband (Labour)

 

Home Secretary: Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrat)

 

Education Secretary: Ed Miliband (Labour)

 

Health Secretary: Chris Huhne (Liberal Democrat)

 

Environment Secretary: Caroline Lucas (Green)

 

Work and Pensions: Frank Field (Labour)

 

International Development: Peter Hain (Labour)

 

Children, Schools and Families: David Lammy (Labour)

 

Energy and Climate Change: David Laws (Liberal Democrat)

 

Communities and Local Government: Hilary Benn (Labour)

 

Scotland: Angus Robertson (SNP)

 

Northern Ireland: Mark Durkan (SDLP)

 

Wales: Hywel Williams (Plaid Cymru)

 

Culture, Media and Sport: Ed Davey (Liberal Democrat)

 

Transport: Ben Bradshaw (Labour)

 

Justice: Jack Straw (Labour)

 

Olympics: Tessa Jowell (Labour)

 

Chief Secretary to the Treasury: Douglas Alexander (Labour)

[davemclaren]

Just indulging in some fantasy politics again (and no, I don't mean Gloria de Piero): imagine how a rainbow coalition of the centre-left might look...

 

Prime Minister: Alan Johnson (Labour)

 

Deputy Prime Minister: Vincent Cable (Liberal Democrat)

 

Chancellor of the Exchequer: Ed Balls (Labour)

 

Foreign Secretary: David Miliband (Labour)

 

Home Secretary: Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrat)

 

Education Secretary: Ed Miliband (Labour)

 

Health Secretary: Chris Huhne (Liberal Democrat)

 

Environment Secretary: Caroline Lucas (Green)

 

Work and Pensions: Frank Field (Labour)

 

International Development: Peter Hain (Labour)

 

Children, Schools and Families: David Lammy (Labour)

 

Energy and Climate Change: David Laws (Liberal Democrat)

 

Communities and Local Government: Hilary Benn (Labour)

 

Scotland: Angus Robertson (SNP)

 

Northern Ireland: Mark Durkan (SDLP)

 

Wales: Hywel Williams (Plaid Cymru)

 

Culture, Media and Sport: Ed Davey (Liberal Democrat)

 

Transport: Ben Bradshaw (Labour)

 

Justice: Jack Straw (Labour)

 

Olympics: Tessa Jowell (Labour)

 

Chief Secretary to the Treasury: Douglas Alexander (Labour)

 

 

Unimaginable really.

[shaun.lawson]

It's probably best to ignore some of the pejorative bitterness in your post, and get straight to the technical issues involved.

 

You'll need to read the reports of the Boundary Commission for England (and the other countries where appropriate) to get a sense of the general factors taken into consideration. But if you want an understanding of the decision-making process as it applied to the Boroughs of Harrow and Hillingdon, have a look at the report at this link (pages 83-88).

 

Er, what link?

 

And bitter? You bet! But to again use Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner as an example: everyone knew what moving Pinner into Ruislip and Northwood would do. My parents knew years ago. Sure enough, the result was even more one sided than Witney, for heavens sake. In terms of encouraging voter participation, it makes no sense whatsoever.

[kitster]

Shaun we are in recession..your pages of text won't get us out of it. What do you live on? benefits? I'm curious.

[shaun.lawson]

Unimaginable really.

 

Unimaginable - but great fun! I am, naturally, reminded of George Canning's coalition with the Whigs in 1827, which included some of the most weird, wacky and unlikely characters imaginable. And Grey's reform coalition of 1830 included, believe it or not, an Ultra Tory, who as well as being a Tory, was stark raving bonkers too.

[shaun.lawson]

Shaun we are in recession..your pages of text won't get us out of it. What do you live on? benefits? I'm curious.

 

A coalition will - hopefully - stabilise things, and some sort of informal agreement between the Tories and Lib Dems does seem likely at this point. And good grief: I'm a political junkie and always have been, and it's the weekend, so I'm relaxing.

[davemclaren]

Unimaginable - but great fun! I am, naturally, reminded of George Canning's coalition with the Whigs in 1827, which included some of the most weird, wacky and unlikely characters imaginable. And Grey's reform coalition of 1830 included, believe it or not, an Ultra Tory, who as well as being a Tory, was stark raving bonkers too.

 

 

It's certainly an interesting group of individuals but hard to believe something like that could happen.

[P-Dizzle]

A coalition will - hopefully - stabilise things, and some sort of informal agreement between the Tories and Lib Dems does seem likely at this point. And good grief: I'm a political junkie and always have been, and it's the weekend, so I'm relaxing.

 

What she's really asking is if you have the "magic stick".

 

 

[kitster]

A coalition will - hopefully - stabilise things, and some sort of informal agreement between the Tories and Lib Dems does seem likely at this point. And good grief: I'm a political junkie and always have been, and it's the weekend, so I'm relaxing.

 

 

You didn't answer my question Shaun.

[Randle P McMurphy]

Unimaginable - but great fun! I am, naturally, reminded of George Canning's coalition with the Whigs in 1827, which included some of the most weird, wacky and unlikely characters imaginable. And Grey's reform coalition of 1830 included, believe it or not, an Ultra Tory, who as well as being a Tory, was stark raving bonkers too.

 

oh I believe you alright

[shaun.lawson]

You didn't answer my question Shaun.

 

That's because it's none of your business, and totally irrelevant to the discussion. For some reason, you come up with totally irrelevant non sequiturs all the time.

[P-Dizzle]

That's because it's none of your business, and totally irrelevant to the discussion. For some reason, you come up with totally irrelevant non sequiturs all the time.

 

What did you have for breakfast? And how did it affect your stool?

[Glamorgan Jambo]

selective quoting mate, the sentence actually stated this or another LD MP being shoehorned into a high profile cabinet role.

 

it is actually in your lot's interest to have Cable in that role as it then provides a fall guy for all of the unpopular spending cuts and tax hikes that are on the horizon.

 

I know I selectively quoted you. And I agree it would be in the conservatives political interests to have a few more hands covered with blood, like for example Vince (ex Chief Economist, a very minor and non accountable role, of some part of Shell) Cable.

 

But we're talking about whats in the national interest and because of the complete and utter mess that Brown and Darling have made of things there will be no room for theoreticians and head in the clouds strategists in the front line of the cabinet.

[shaun.lawson]

What did you have for breakfast? And how did it affect your stool?

 

 

Thoughts turn idly to IP Knightley's thread a couple of weeks back...

[kitster]

That's because it's none of your business, and totally irrelevant to the discussion. For some reason, you come up with totally irrelevant non sequiturs all the time.

 

 

But everything is always yours Shaun. If you want to argue you need to be consistent.

[shaun.lawson]

But everything is always yours Shaun. If you want to argue you need to be consistent.

 

I certainly relate debates back to my personal experience on here sometimes: a lot of people do that. But it's up to everyone what they choose to reveal or not reveal on here - and frequently, you ask the most bizarre things.

[P-Dizzle]

 

Thoughts turn idly to IP Knightley's thread a couple of weeks back...

 

That was a ridiculously personal question though.

 

Back on topic, I know you've been around Lib Dem supporters recently. Had any of them predicted this sort of outcome?

 

What is the general mood among these people? As someone who voted Lid Dem, I'd feel very let down if they enalbed a Tory government. Even though the situation is very awkward, I don't think it's right for them to do a deal.

 

Are people split, or are the grassroot party activists dead against it?

[shaun.lawson]

That was a ridiculously personal question though.

 

Back on topic, I know you've been around Lib Dem supporters recently. Had any of them predicted this sort of outcome?

 

What is the general mood among these people? As someone who voted Lid Dem myself, I'd feel very let down if they enalbed a Tory government. Even though the situation is very awkward, I don't think it's right for them to do a deal.

 

Are people split, or are the grassroot party activists dead against it?

 

Oh, the activists are against it alright. No-one predicted it, because up until literally the final 24 hours, it looked as though we'd do a lot better; and the idea that Labour plus Lib Dems wouldn't equal a majority didn't occur to anyone.

 

There won't be a formal coalition because they'll never get it past the membership, who have to ratify it. But this is a time of very real economic crisis; and by hook or crook, a government has to be formed. It's what happens across Europe under PR all the time: PR very often demands odd bedfellows. As I pointed out earlier, the German government is a coalition between the CDU (Tories) and Greens.

[The Old Tolbooth]

I cant be arsed trawling through a million pages of political pish to be honest, but my personal opinion is that Clegg would gain a lot more respect by telling both parties to bolt and forcing another election in the Autumn.

 

Am I alone in feeling this way?

[The Real Maroonblood]

I cant be arsed trawling through a million pages of political pish to be honest, but my personal opinion is that Clegg would gain a lot more respect by telling both parties to bolt and forcing another election in the Autumn.

 

Am I alone in feeling this way?

If it annoys the tories bring it on.

[I.J]

It amuses me that people think their opinion matters to politicians.

 

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

I certainly relate debates back to my personal experience on here sometimes: a lot of people do that. But it's up to everyone what they choose to reveal or not reveal on here - and frequently, you ask the most bizarre things.

 

 

Hey Shaun, on economics threads, certain posters asked me to declare my interests! I think they thought I was one of those nasty banker types.