Inflation

[Shooter McGavin]

8 minutes ago, JudyJudyJudy said:

I didnt even notice the price really. It was my pal who questioned how much it had been . I had just paid by card.  We had the one pint and left. Wont be back again.  Complete rip off.  You'll struggle to get cheap drinks in town just now really , particular in the old town venues.  Take a carry out with you and wonder about !  

*Bloody double post*

 

Edited August 17, 2022 by Shooter McGavin

[Dazo]

Just now, Shooter McGavin said:

Was going to have a few drinks on the train to save a few quid, but I believe nowadays Scotrail would have you arrested for such an act of chaos.

I’m not sure it’s policed. Regardless they’ll be too busy telling anyone who’ll listen how hard they work. 

[Shooter McGavin]

Just now, Dazo said:

I’m not sure it’s policed. Regardless they’ll be too busy telling anyone who’ll listen how hard they work. 

Either way, I’ll just have to cope with the prices during festival season.

 

Have to disagree with your last point, never had an issue with train staff, it’s just a shame that their employer, Scotrail, couldn’t run a bath.

[Dazo]

1 minute ago, Shooter McGavin said:

Either way, I’ll just have to cope with the prices during festival season.

 

Have to disagree with your last point, never had an issue with train staff, it’s just a shame that their employer, Scotrail, couldn’t run a bath.

I didn’t actually mean it. 😂

 

you’ll be fine with a beer on the train. 

[JudyJudyJudy]

14 minutes ago, Shooter McGavin said:

Either way, I’ll just have to cope with the prices during festival season.

 

Have to disagree with your last point, never had an issue with train staff, it’s just a shame that their employer, Scotrail, couldn’t run a bath.

I’d agree with Dazzo don’t think it’s policed , ( drinking on trains ) 

[The Real Maroonblood]

32 minutes ago, Shooter McGavin said:

The UK government lost £16 billion in fraud and dodgy covid loan schemes.

 

The UK government also destroyed £4 billion worth of unusable PPE.

 

And you’re moaning about deprived kids getting clothes for school…

 

It’s like moaning about your dinner being burnt, whilst your house is on fire.

Spot on.

[Shooter McGavin]

11 minutes ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

Spot on.

I’m more than happy for mine, and everybody else's, tax money going towards disadvantaged kids, what I’m not happy with is our tax money being spunked up the wall in fraud, dodgy contracts or MP’s on 84k-a-year claiming for frivolous p*** like coffees on their expenses.

[Taffin]

52 minutes ago, Smithee said:

I'm not sure that'll be much consolation to the people in that position.

 

True, but realistically it's just extremely unlikely, to the extent it should be managed ad hoc (better than I'm sure it is currently though tbf) rather than creating blanket solutions to cater to it.

[Taffin]

1 hour ago, Ainsley Harriott said:

Bit on the Scottish news about scroungers getting £200 + to pay for school uniforms. Is there anything they don't expect covered by the taxpayers. 

 

How long is that to cover?

 

I wouldn't have thought my parents spent anywhere near £200 quid on my school uniform. 

 

 

[The Real Maroonblood]

26 minutes ago, Shooter McGavin said:

I’m more than happy for mine, and everybody else's, tax money going towards disadvantaged kids, what I’m not happy with is our tax money being spunked up the wall in fraud, dodgy contracts or MP’s on 84k-a-year claiming for frivolous p*** like coffees on their expenses.

Absolutely. 

 

[The Mighty Thor]

I always find stories like the 200 quid support for school uniforms interesting.

Actually I find the responses interesting and the language deployed, such as 'scroungers', enlightening to the character of those involved.

I find the fact that people have to seek government support to clothe their kids sad as ****. 

[Dennis Reynolds]

2 hours ago, Taffin said:

 

How long is that to cover?

 

I wouldn't have thought my parents spent anywhere near £200 quid on my school uniform. 

 

It's per year. It's only up to £150 in Scotland. £120 for primary school kids. These things can add up over the course of the year. I guess it would probably cover school bags, shoes and gym kits etc as well. £20+ for embroidered school jumpers I paid recently. 

 

I had to deal with hand-me-downs when I was a bairn. School jumpers my much smaller sister had used for two/three years. Got sent to school with the sole of my shoe hanging off as well to teach me a lesson after I burst it pinging a shot top bag after school. No uniform grants back in my day ☹️

[manaliveits105]

Some possible cautious optimism for our obsessed comrades to jump on 

 

Five-minute read: Why there is reason to hope inflation is nearing its peak

Analysis by Ian King, business presenter

It will not feel like it, as consumers digest the news that UK inflation has hit its highest level since before the Falklands War, but there are reasons to hope that inflation is coming close to its peak.

That is because the price of a number of commodities – whose prices surged after Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine – have fallen sharply from their recent peaks.

First and foremost, take the price of oil. The price of a barrel of Brent crude peaked at $139.13 on 7 March, 11 days after Russian troops entered Ukraine, but today touched $91.51 – a level not seen since before Mr Putin initiated hostilities against his neighbour.

Or have a look at copper, a commodity whose widespread use across a range of industries makes it an accurate barometer of global economic activity, earning it the nickname of "Dr Copper" on commodity markets. The price of copper has fallen by more than 25% since it peaked at $10,674 per tonne on 4 March. This morning it was trading at one point at $7,963 – having gone as low as $7,170 last month.

Or take the price of iron ore, the crucial ingredient in steel, a key cost for sectors like car-making and construction. It has fallen by around 50% since spiking in March after Mr Putin attacked Ukraine and is now trading at roughly half the price at which it was changing hands this time last year – mainly reflecting weaker demand for steel from the Chinese construction sector.

The same phenomenon has been seen with so-called "soft" commodities. The price of wheat surged in March immediately after the invasion with the cost of a bushel of wheat (sufficient to produce enough flour to bake 70 1lb loaves of white bread or 90 1lb loaves of wholemeal bread) surging to $13.63 on 8 March. It was trading today at just $8.03, the level at which it was trading just before the war, despite ongoing concerns about Ukraine's ability to export its wheat.

Not only have commodity prices fallen from their immediate post-invasion peaks. So too have shipping costs, a key contributor to the inflation experienced ultimately by consumers. The global container freight index compiled by the data provider Freightos, which measures the cost of shipping a typical 40-foot container around the world, has fallen from $9,777 at the beginning of March to $5,956 in the last week. The fall in shipping costs on certain routes, for example from China to Los Angeles on the US West Coast, is greater still.

All of these factors ought to provide some comfort that the original factors that contributed to the current inflationary pressures being seen in the economy are starting to abate.

That is starting to show up around the world in some measures of inflation, most notably with producer price inflation (a measure of the prices being received by producers of goods and services), which dropped in the United States from 8.4% in June to 7.6% in July.

And there was a sign today that the same is happening here – with input PPI (which reflects the costs being incurred by the producers of goods and services) falling from the record 24.1% seen in June to 22.6% in July. It raises hopes that output PPI – sometimes referred to as "factory gate inflation" – will also start to ease in coming months.

That is not to say that the headline rate of inflation in the UK has peaked. It has not, with the peak month likely to come in October, when Ofgem is set to raise the household energy bill price cap. The Bank of England is predicting a peak of 13%.

The big concern for the Bank is that the nature of inflation is changing. The current inflation being experienced in the economy is largely due to the war in Ukraine, which has pushed up the price of a range of commodities, as well as ongoing supply chain disruption caused by the recent bout of COVID lockdowns in China.

However, the Bank worries about so-called "second round effects", changes seen in the behaviour of businesses and households in response to that inflation.

The Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, in raising interest rates earlier this month by the biggest amount since 1995, clearly had this in mind. Minutes of the meeting suggest the committee had noted indications that inflationary pressures were becoming more persistent and "broadening to more domestically driven sectors".

They went on: "In a tight labour market and an environment in which companies were finding it easier to pass on price increases, a higher and more protracted path for consumer price inflation over the next 18 months could increase the risk that an eventual decline in external price pressures would not be sufficient to restrain expectations of above-target inflation further ahead."

That is why the MPC raised interest rates earlier this month and why the market is now pricing in a further half-point rise next month.

And that may only be the start. The yield on two-year UK government gilts (IOUs), which is a good indication as to where the market thinks interest rates are heading in the near term, jumped to 2.453% following this morning's worse-than-expected inflation figures.

So, while the initial supply pressures that have sparked this year's inflation shock may be easing, the danger is that inflation more broadly may not.

 

or May if you are an optimist 

[Shooter McGavin]

Just slap an entire article in the thread, rather than develop any real arguments or points.

 

Way to go, buddy 👍🏻
 

In future, please do just paste the link in so I can scroll past your posts quicker, there’s a good chap.

[Taffin]

1 hour ago, Dennis Reynolds said:

 

It's per year. It's only up to £150 in Scotland. £120 for primary school kids. These things can add up over the course of the year. I guess it would probably cover school bags, shoes and gym kits etc as well. £20+ for embroidered school jumpers I paid recently. 

 

I had to deal with hand-me-downs when I was a bairn. School jumpers my much smaller sister had used for two/three years. Got sent to school with the sole of my shoe hanging off as well to teach me a lesson after I burst it pinging a shot top bag after school. No uniform grants back in my day ☹️

 

Cheers. I wouldn't have classed shoes, bags and gym kit as uniform though I appreciate it's maybe different at some schools but we had free reign to choose what we wanted for those. Including those, seems about right I guess.

 

 

[ArcticJambo]

School clothes for my 12 yr old son ... from Asda

Two pair of black trousers, £7

Five pack of short-sleeve shirts, £7.50

Two pack of crew neck sweaters, £9

The school gives him the tie; they wear it for half a day and then it never leaves the back of his drawer!

Total = £25 tops

Basic runners he uses for everything , school or not (from SDirect), £30<

[Taffin]

6 minutes ago, ArcticJambo said:

School clothes for my 12 yr old son ... from Asda

Two pair of black trousers, £7

Five pack of short-sleeve shirts, £7.50

Two pack of crew neck sweaters, £9

The school gives him the tie; they wear it for half a day and then it never leaves the back of his drawer!

Total = £25 tops

Basic runners he uses for everything , school or not (from SDirect), £30<

 

That's more the sort of outlay I remember getting. Maybe a bit more on the trousers as I moaned like mad about them 😂

[ArcticJambo]

1 minute ago, Taffin said:

 

That's more the sort of outlay I remember getting. Maybe a bit more on the trousers as I moaned like mad about them 😂

Yeah, the prices are really quite good. Thankfully he's stopped doing knee sliding goal celebrations so the trousers do actually last pretty much close to the entire year, and at that price it's not really a big deal to buy another couple when needed.  I asked him if most of his mates were similarly dressed today and replied in the affirmative, with half wearing skinny jeans instead. He moans about the shoes!

[Unknown user]

4 hours ago, Taffin said:

 

True, but realistically it's just extremely unlikely, to the extent it should be managed ad hoc (better than I'm sure it is currently though tbf) rather than creating blanket solutions to cater to it.

It's not at all unlikely, the people who need full time care from their partners, the couples where one's disabled and one's unemployed. A parent and adult child, a couple who worked together before the factory shut down.

There are all sorts of reasons that it's not unlikely, never mind unemployed couples.

[AlimOzturk]

27 minutes ago, ArcticJambo said:

School clothes for my 12 yr old son ... from Asda

Two pair of black trousers, £7

Five pack of short-sleeve shirts, £7.50

Two pack of crew neck sweaters, £9

The school gives him the tie; they wear it for half a day and then it never leaves the back of his drawer!

Total = £25 tops

Basic runners he uses for everything , school or not (from SDirect), £30<

My lad prefers joggers but aii that is the jist of it. 
 

most expensive thing i usually pay for is his Backpack. But that lasts an entire year then I get it for the gym the following year 😂🤦‍♂️

[ArcticJambo]

8 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

My lad prefers joggers but aii that is the jist of it. 
 

most expensive thing i usually pay for is his Backpack. But that lasts an entire year then I get it for the gym the following year 😂🤦‍♂️

Its a bag, not a back pack!   I get reminded of this all the time, "Dad noone calls it a backpack!"

He got his bag from his sister for his birthday. Result!

[Ainsley Harriott]

12 hours ago, Taffin said:

 

How long is that to cover?

 

I wouldn't have thought my parents spent anywhere near £200 quid on my school uniform. 

 

 

To cover the schoo year I think. Must be nice to have your lifestyle subsidized by the tax payer.

[Taffin]

12 minutes ago, Ainsley Harriott said:

To cover the schoo year I think. Must be nice to have your lifestyle subsidized by the tax payer.

 

It is nice yeh, I enjoy the roads I drive on, the NHS that I may one day need, the fire service, the vast infrastructure across the country...

 

 

Joking aside, it does seem a lot given people who are paying for it directly themselves probably won't spend that much.

[Taffin]

8 hours ago, Smithee said:

It's not at all unlikely, the people who need full time care from their partners, the couples where one's disabled and one's unemployed. A parent and adult child, a couple who worked together before the factory shut down.

There are all sorts of reasons that it's not unlikely, never mind unemployed couples.

 

An adult child is an oxymoron, they should get a job and contribute.

 

Those who worked at the factory would have redundancy pay to get through until they got new jobs.

 

The people the carers are caring for full time presumably would already be entitled to more support.

[The Mighty Thor]

55 minutes ago, Taffin said:

Those who worked at the factory would have redundancy pay to get through until they got new jobs.

 

That belies a lack of understanding of statutory redundancy pay. Or indeed the tactics used by companies to reduce headcount as cheaply as possible, such as unilaterally changing contracts and conditions.

 

There is of course the conundrum of what new jobs might be available as the recession progresses. 

[Taffin]

29 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

 

That belies a lack of understanding of statutory redundancy pay. Or indeed the tactics used by companies to reduce headcount as cheaply as possible, such as unilaterally changing contracts and conditions.

 

There is of course the conundrum of what new jobs might be available as the recession progresses. 

 

There are also lots of good companies who pay decent redundancy pay. Not every company is out to get everyone.

 

There's plenty of jobs out there. 

 

£760 a month is an absolutely ample amount of money to get 2 bed accommodation...even if both people cannot work (which I still imagine is rare) as they'll have additional support for that too.

[OBE]

Today, couldn't get a train up town (midden) to watch my daughter in her fringe play. Parked the car minutes away from Infirmary St. Started filling the parking ticket machine with 8 £ coins and was granted 1 hour and 15 minutes...f**kin scandalous. 

[Malinga the Swinga]

11 hours ago, Taffin said:

 

There are also lots of good companies who pay decent redundancy pay. Not every company is out to get everyone.

 

There's plenty of jobs out there. 

 

£760 a month is an absolutely ample amount of money to get 2 bed accommodation...even if both people cannot work (which I still imagine is rare) as they'll have additional support for that too.

Your optimistic and can do attitude won't catch on with some on here.

Much easier to look at worst outcome possible before blaming everything and everyone else instead of looking closer to home.

[ri Alban]

Jesus, why do some folk constantly blame the wee guy. It's never the Government and it's mega rich backers to blame for anything. Every ***** else needs to change, it's our own fault inflation is up, energy is up fuel is up, the fist of living is up. Now drink your own filtered pish and barbecue the ants. Let the rich get ever richer 👍

[skinnybob72]

If you take 10 minutes to consider what you are paying today for your rent / mortgage, council tax, gas / leccy, fuel if you have a car and your weekly shop and compare it with what you were paying in 2019 I would hazard a guess that most folk will be between £300-£500 a month worse off. That figure may increase significantly in October, January & April if the predicted increase in energy prices comes true.

 

So, that's anything from £3.5-£6k a year off your net annual income in little over 3 years. Good luck if you've had a payrise or two to cover this - especially considering that tax / Ni will eat c33%-50% of that rise depending on your salary.

 

There is going to be an enormous number of households who simply do not have the 'slack' to cover this regardless of how frugal they are over the winter months. 

[Jambof3tornado]

2 hours ago, skinnybob72 said:

If you take 10 minutes to consider what you are paying today for your rent / mortgage, council tax, gas / leccy, fuel if you have a car and your weekly shop and compare it with what you were paying in 2019 I would hazard a guess that most folk will be between £300-£500 a month worse off. That figure may increase significantly in October, January & April if the predicted increase in energy prices comes true.

 

So, that's anything from £3.5-£6k a year off your net annual income in little over 3 years. Good luck if you've had a payrise or two to cover this - especially considering that tax / Ni will eat c33%-50% of that rise depending on your salary.

 

There is going to be an enormous number of households who simply do not have the 'slack' to cover this regardless of how frugal they are over the winter months. 

This,its not just those on benefits or 1 wage that will struggle.

 

Fortunately the wife got a large payrise last year and we both work and junior is all grown up,but without that payrise we'd be struggling. I havent a clue how folk that dont work will cope long term.

 

I consider us lucky that we do have slack in the budget but the slack is reducing monthly as costs increase.

[The Mighty Thor]

Holy Unicorns Batman!

 

Spaffer has saved the day with a super duper Trade Deal from out of  nowhere*

 

Huzzah 👍

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* the same shite he's been spouting since 2016

[ri Alban]

7 hours ago, The Mighty Thor said:

Holy Unicorns Batman!

 

Spaffer has saved the day with a super duper Trade Deal from out of  nowhere*

 

Huzzah 👍

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* the same shite he's been spouting since 2016

And now he's out, he'll be on every tv show talking shite, with the fools cheering his every word. Hopefully a few come for him and destroy him.

[The Real Maroonblood]

10 hours ago, The Mighty Thor said:

Holy Unicorns Batman!

 

Spaffer has saved the day with a super duper Trade Deal from out of  nowhere*

 

Huzzah 👍

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* the same shite he's been spouting since 2016

He’s still a slavering scumbag.

[Victorian]

The only economy related thing that scumbag has been doing is to consistently improve the balance of payments of various countries with the never ending holidays he's been on.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

22 minutes ago, Victorian said:

The only economy related thing that scumbag has been doing is to consistently improve the balance of payments of various countries with the never ending holidays he's been on.

 

They'll be freebies, staying at the villa of some donor or rich supporter or at his dad's villa.

For people like BoJo it's a really bad day when they actually have to pay for something out of their own pocket.

[Footballfirst]

Citigroup is forecasting that inflation will hit 18% in January.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-22/citigroup-says-natural-gas-crisis-will-drive-uk-inflation-to-18

[Fxxx the SPFL]

49 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Citigroup is forecasting that inflation will hit 18% in January.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-22/citigroup-says-natural-gas-crisis-will-drive-uk-inflation-to-18

i can guarantee that next month will see a miraculous drop in the inflation rate as the triple lock on the state pension for next year is reinstated i'm sure it's based on the higher of the the three scenarios during the month of September so with it being at 10.1% just now me thinks it will reduce  and then increase again from October onwards all imo of course. I get the state pension from next May luvvly jubbly

[Cade]

The world's 4 largest grain firms have posted record profits.

And, crucially, they're increased their margins.

People around the world are struggling to afford food and this lot are blatantly profiteering.

Many hedge funds are also involved in the grain commodities markets, hoarding grain to make the price rise more before selling it.

Laughing all the way to the bank.

 

Need a global clampdown and windfall taxes on these parasites, earning billions off the backs of the poorest people on the planet.

 

[The Mighty Thor]

Another daily dose of the good news

 

 

If the markets, ergo the people who really run the country, want our interest rates to be 4%, then 4% they will be. 

 

How does Doris equate this one to Ukriane? 

 

Maybe he should fly into London for a visit instead of pissing about in Kyiv. 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

28 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

Another daily dose of the good news

 

 

If the markets, ergo the people who really run the country, want our interest rates to be 4%, then 4% they will be. 

 

How does Doris equate this one to Ukriane? 

 

Maybe he should fly into London for a visit instead of pissing about in Kyiv. 

 

I heard one city analyst say that he wouldn't be surprised if interest rates hit 6% or 7% by late next year.

As per there's lots of if but's & maybe's, however if folks in the 'city' are talking about rates such as this, then.........

[Victorian]

Might as well stop building the utterly shit,  heat escaping,  drafty housing that the big builders churn out due to years of Tory complicit eroded standards and regulation.  Nobody is going to be able to take on a mortgage.  

[Jambo-Jimbo]

7 minutes ago, Victorian said:

Might as well stop building the utterly shit,  heat escaping,  drafty housing that the big builders churn out due to years of Tory complicit eroded standards and regulation.  Nobody is going to be able to take on a mortgage.  

 

Tbh I wouldn't thank you for a new build, there are some around here that are in a shocking state after only 25 years, if that.

[The Mighty Thor]

20 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

Tbh I wouldn't thank you for a new build, there are some around here that are in a shocking state after only 25 years, if that.

I drove through Granton past the new build flats on the old British Gas site.

 

I'd be shocked if they're still up in 20 years. 

[Taffin]

Are the vast majority of new builds not high scoring on their EPCs?

 

Some of the housebuilders aren't great, but some are pretty good imo.

[fabienleclerq]

6 minutes ago, Taffin said:

Are the vast majority of new builds not high scoring on their EPCs?

 

Some of the housebuilders aren't great, but some are pretty good imo.

 

Does that not mean they are energy efficient?

 

Most new builds I've been in don't look like they'll outlast older properties.

[Taffin]

5 minutes ago, fabienleclerq said:

 

Does that not mean they are energy efficient?

 

Most new builds I've been in don't look like they'll outlast older properties.

 

That's my understanding of the EPC yeh, I thought it would be hard to achieve a high score if they were draughty and poorly insulated.

[jamb0_1874]

21 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

That's my understanding of the EPC yeh, I thought it would be hard to achieve a high score if they were draughty and poorly insulated.

 

How do they test for this? I mean do they test every house, 1 in 10, 1 in 50 or just assume they will me the rating by the products that are being used to build the house? 

[Taffin]

Just now, jamb0_1874 said:

 

How do they test for this? I mean do they test every house, 1 in 10, 1 in 50 or just assume they will me the rating by the products that are being used to build the house? 

 

No idea tbh. I was just surprised to see they're considered heat inefficient. I'm not really into them, but have been considering some from certain suppliers lately as I look to move, and had been quite positive about the EPC ratings.

[inspector]

13 minutes ago, jamb0_1874 said:

 

How do they test for this? I mean do they test every house, 1 in 10, 1 in 50 or just assume they will me the rating by the products that are being used to build the house? 

Probably self certification