Inflation

[SE16 3LN]

2 minutes ago, joondalupjambo said:

Bank of England press conference now.  They are discussing their forecasts and have highlighted why we are where are.  Since I have been listening Brexit not been mentioned as part of the problem.  Anyone watching?  Have they mentioned Brexit or just ignoring it?  Brexit surely has an effect on UK inflation?

Stll trying to get a tune from that old fiddle 😂

[Nucky Thompson]

3 minutes ago, joondalupjambo said:

Bank of England press conference now.  They are discussing their forecasts and have highlighted why we are where are.  Since I have been listening Brexit not been mentioned as part of the problem.  Anyone watching?  Have they mentioned Brexit or just ignoring it?  Brexit surely has an effect on UK inflation?

The whole of Europe is in the same boat and the ECB will be doing much the same

[GBJambo]

5 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

What would you like them to do, what do you think they should do?

Cap food prices and essentials

[Jambo-Jimbo]

1 minute ago, GBJambo said:

Cap food prices and essentials

 

That would be a start.

[Nucky Thompson]

The bank of England are going to raise it by another 0.5% in September.

 

How high can we go?

 

Good for savers with no debt 

[manaliveits105]

1 minute ago, Nucky Thompson said:

The bank of England are going to raise it by another 0.5% in September.

 

How high can we go?

 

Good for savers with no debt 

[Ainsley Harriott]

13 minutes ago, joondalupjambo said:

Bank of England press conference now.  They are discussing their forecasts and have highlighted why we are where are.  Since I have been listening Brexit not been mentioned as part of the problem.  Anyone watching?  Have they mentioned Brexit or just ignoring it?  Brexit surely has an effect on UK inflation

Haha Brexit eh. Inflation is currently a global issue but good try 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

4 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

The whole of Europe is in the same boat and the ECB will be doing much the same

 

Indeed, some (eleven) EU countries have higher inflation than the UK, the Baltic states are around 20% inflation, even Belgium & the Netherlands have higher inflation rates than the UK has.  This is Europe wide.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/14644614/2-01072022-AP-EN.pdf/72dcf5e4-56cb-5b8c-1a1f-d342666b8657

[Pans Jambo]

The tories really have overseen the worst financial times in modern history. 12+ years of austerity, Brexit (and all that entails), uncapped energy price hikes, rapid foodbank growth, double digit inflation and now interest rate rises and a 5 quarter predicted recession.

 

We just need a war thrown in to have a full house!

 

Personally, I dont understand why Liz and Rushi are not concentrating on the day jobs! Now is not the time to be changing Prime Minister!

[BlueRiver]

7 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

The bank of England are going to raise it by another 0.5% in September.

 

How high can we go?

 

Good for savers with no debt 

As someone who hasn’t been able to afford a house on my single income I’m hoping that we’ll have a long overdue cooling on that market too. 
 

Doubt it though. Some good old fashioned state intervention at some point to ensure I’m ****ed and the bubble keeps expanding. 

[Ray Gin]

7 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

The bank of England are going to raise it by another 0.5% in September.

 

How high can we go?

 

Good for savers with no debt 

 

 

Any boost to interest rates will be absolutely nowhere near the rate of inflation. Our savings are losing value.

[Jambomuzz]

What does this mean for mortgage rates? I just got on the housing market last year, I have a relatively small mortgage (under 100k) at a rate of around 3%. Will I likely be looking at something far higher when I come to renew in just over a year? 

[Nucky Thompson]

Just now, Ray Gin said:

 

 

Any boost to interest rates will be absolutely nowhere near the rate of inflation. Our savings are losing value.

It definitely won't be anywhere near the rate of inflation.

 

I just moved £30k out of my every day account into a 2 year fixed that I can't touch.

I'll get £1500 interest over the 2 years, where I was getting next to feck all for the last few years.

Better than feck all and I wasn't touching that money anyway

[The Real Maroonblood]

1 minute ago, Nucky Thompson said:

It definitely won't be anywhere near the rate of inflation.

 

I just moved £30k out of my every day account into a 2 year fixed that I can't touch.

I'll get £1500 interest over the 2 years, where I was getting next to feck all for the last few years.

Better than feck all and I wasn't touching that money anyway

Is there a particular website to look at for these deals?

[Cade]

Bank of England predicts 5 quarters of economic shrinkage.  

Otherwise known as "recession"

 

And inflation to keep rising.

 

Welcome to the wonderful world of Stagflation, everyone!

The traditional economic levers (like interest rates) stop working in a stagflation period.

 

Things are only going to get worse, especially with the braindead wreckers that have been in government for the last twelve years.

[Taffin]

15 minutes ago, BlueRiver said:

As someone who hasn’t been able to afford a house on my single income I’m hoping that we’ll have a long overdue cooling on that market too. 
 

Doubt it though. Some good old fashioned state intervention at some point to ensure I’m ****ed and the bubble keeps expanding. 

 

I'm also looking to buy and I worry it robbing Peter to pay Paul. Market comes down but cost of the mortgage goes up 🙁

 

But fingers crossed it'll help you at least get the house and you can worry about the mortgage costs later once you're in and secure. 

[The Mighty Thor]

1 minute ago, Cade said:

Bank of England predicts 5 quarters of economic shrinkage.  

Otherwise known as "recession"

 

And inflation to keep rising.

 

Welcome to the wonderful world of Stagflation, everyone!

The traditional economic levers (like interest rates) stop working in a stagflation period.

 

Things are only going to get worse, especially with the braindead wreckers that have been in government for the last twelve years.

Given their stellar performance over the last 12 years its fair to say that every move that the Tories propose to make will deepen and lengthen any recession we will face and will ensure that the UK is unable to bounce back anywhere near as far as our European counterparts.

 

Long term prognosis? The UK is ****ed.  

[Victorian]

BoE have essentially kyboshed Truss's trajectory of creating economic demand.  Every bit of extra demand is going to be met with higher interest rates.  We'll end up with the junta creating a conflict with the BoE with higher inflation than necessary + higher intetest rates.  They're supposed to work together but that's not the way of the junta.  They'll probably threaten to remove the independence of the BoE.

Edited August 4, 2022 by Victorian

[The Mighty Thor]

Here's an idiots guide to what is going on and how the current BoE policy is like Red Adair taking a water pistol to work. 

 

 

[The Mighty Thor]

1 minute ago, Victorian said:

BoE have essentially kyboshed Truss's trajectory of creating economic demand.  Every bit of extra demand is going to be met with higher interest rates.  We'll end up with the junta creating a conflict with the BoE with higher inflation than necessary + higher intetest rates.  They're supposed to work together but that's not the way of the junta.  They'll probably threaten to remove the independence of the BoE.

She already has.

 

They'll be in the pot with lefty lawyers and judges as enemies of the state. 

[Section Q]

25 minutes ago, Jambomuzz said:

What does this mean for mortgage rates? I just got on the housing market last year, I have a relatively small mortgage (under 100k) at a rate of around 3%. Will I likely be looking at something far higher when I come to renew in just over a year? 

You can add 2 % to your mortgage if your fixed loan matures next year. The UK's been a wee but slow to act on rates, hence the 0.5% increase today. 

Edited August 4, 2022 by Section Q

[Jambomuzz]

3 minutes ago, Section Q said:

You can add 2 % to your mortgage if your fixed loan matures next year. The UK's been a wee but slow to act on rartes, hence the 0.5% increase today. 

So if I was to remortgage I would likely be looking at a 5% mortgage? 
I have done quite a lot of work in the last year to the property so would hope the LTV when remortgaging would be significantly lower than the 95% mortgage I got at 3% so hopefully this would offset the increase? 

[Section Q]

4 hours ago, Ainsley Harriott said:

The expected rate increase will catch out all the pretendy yuppies living out with their means mortgaged up to their eyeballs. 

Sounds like you don't mind suffering as long as they do to. Strange philosophy....!

[Nucky Thompson]

9 minutes ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

Is there a particular website to look at for these deals?

Martin Lewis Money saving expert.

Under top savings accounts

[BlueRiver]

12 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

I'm also looking to buy and I worry it robbing Peter to pay Paul. Market comes down but cost of the mortgage goes up 🙁

 

But fingers crossed it'll help you at least get the house and you can worry about the mortgage costs later once you're in and secure. 

I know. It never seems to be a straightforward optimal time. Truth be told though the amount I’ve paid in rents at points I’d need to lock myself into something wild for it to compare.

 

Well I think that anyway…

 

All the best for you too. Hope it works out. 

[The Mighty Thor]

Some further information on GDP & Inflation from the BoE's own forecasts

 

 

[Taffin]

Just now, BlueRiver said:

I know. It never seems to be a straightforward optimal time. Truth be told though the amount I’ve paid in rents at points I’d need to lock myself into something wild for it to compare.

 

Well I think that anyway…

 

All the best for you too. Hope it works out. 

 

Better paying your own house off than someone else's for sure! 

 

Cheers 👍

[Section Q]

2 minutes ago, Jambomuzz said:

So if I was to remortgage I would likely be looking at a 5% mortgage? 
I have done quite a lot of work in the last year to the property so would hope the LTV when remortgaging would be significantly lower than the 95% mortgage I got at 3% so hopefully this would offset the increase? 

Regardless of LTV, you'll still owe the same amount of money. Sounds like you don't have a huge mortgage like some others.

[The Real Maroonblood]

3 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

Martin Lewis Money saving expert.

Under top savings accounts

Thanks.

[Ainsley Harriott]

12 minutes ago, Section Q said:

Sounds like you don't mind suffering as long as they do to. Strange philosophy....!

I'm not suffering I will be glad of the extra intrest of my savings. Too many have gotten used to very low borrowing rates last few years 

[Howdy Doody Jambo]

Basically the rich with money in the bank and shares getting richer and the poorer getting poorer 

What's new? same old same old 

There was always going to be a pay back for furlough, lockdowns, added green energy taxes, war's etc etc 

Long cold hungry winter on the horizon, strikes, recession and lots of bother ahead is all you hear about in the media 

Keep calm and carry on 

[GBJambo]

11 minutes ago, The Maroon Pound said:

Basically the rich with money in the bank and shares getting richer and the poorer getting poorer 

What's new? same old same old 

There was always going to be a pay back for furlough, lockdowns, added green energy taxes, war's etc etc 

Long cold hungry winter on the horizon, strikes, recession and lots of bother ahead is all you hear about in the media 

Keep calm and carry on 

Yep civil unrest is on its way.  
 

And bill strikes with people refusing to pay

 

[Victorian]

5 minutes ago, The Maroon Pound said:

Basically the rich with money in the bank and shares getting richer and the poorer getting poorer 

What's new? same old same old 

There was always going to be a pay back for furlough, lockdowns, added green energy taxes, war's etc etc 

Long cold hungry winter on the horizon, strikes, recession and lots of bother ahead is all you hear about in the media 

Keep calm and carry on 

 

Basically this.

 

Baseline of high inflation that's caused by external forces that can't be mitigated by monetary policy levers + additional inflation caused by unavoidable wage settlements and Truss's tax cuts to supposedly create economic growth (fairy story because there's no available expansion gap in economic supply due mostly to a basket case labour market) + higher and higher interest rates.

 

We're about to see obsolete monetary and fiscal policy attempting to meet a unique set of circumstances and it's likely to be grotesque.

[Unknown user]

4 minutes ago, GBJambo said:

Yep civil unrest is on its way.  
 

And bill strikes with people refusing to pay

 

 

And of course those on prepaid meters, the poorest, don't even have that choice. They can't do anything but pay, that's why I think it'll turn ugly.

[Don Dan]

1 hour ago, Pans Jambo said:

Now is not the time to be changing Prime Minister!

Are you advocating the return of the fat lying Eton Mess till things stabilise? 

[Pans Jambo]

3 minutes ago, Imaman said:

Are you advocating the return of the fat lying Eton Mess till things stabilise? 

Just suggesting that "now is not the time" means heehaw at anytime! When does anything ever stabilise in UK politics? The NHS has been in "crisis" since its inception. "concentrate" or "get on with" the day job has been levelled at the Scottish Gov anytime they dare to whisper about the constitution, yet we have had 3 prime-ministers, 4 GE's, Brexit and tory party leadership race instead of "the day job". They have more faces than the town clock!

[joondalupjambo]

2 hours ago, Ainsley Harriott said:

Haha Brexit eh. Inflation is currently a global issue but good try 

Yeah but on a more serious note 😀

 

Two of the figures that goes to calculating the monthly inflation figures is food and transport so if the UK has / is continuing to import food products from the EU then those two items will have increased in cost due to Brexit.  Then regardless of the other world factors it is part of the problem.  Not saying inflation is not a global problem but we must be slightly adding to the problem by not being in the EU.  

 

A quick Google throws up a number of stories confirming Brexit is in the mix.  Not looking to make this the only thing just highlighting it has a slight effect.  

[Dawnrazor]

4 minutes ago, joondalupjambo said:

Yeah but on a more serious note 😀

 

Two of the figures that goes to calculating the monthly inflation figures is food and transport so if the UK has / is continuing to import food products from the EU then those two items will have increased in cost due to Brexit.  Then regardless of the other world factors it is part of the problem.  Not saying inflation is not a global problem but we must be slightly adding to the problem by not being in the EU.  

 

A quick Google throws up a number of stories confirming Brexit is in the mix.  Not looking to make this the only thing just highlighting it has a slight effect.  

We've been importing too much food for too long, we've lost the ability it seems to eat seasonal produce, we want whatever we want whenever we want it, this will have to change.

[Pans Jambo]

20 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

We've been importing too much food for too long, we've lost the ability it seems to eat seasonal produce, we want whatever we want whenever we want it, this will have to change.

I hope it does. Seasonal eating is the way forward; however, I'm just as guilty as the next person for eating strawberries in November.

[The Real Maroonblood]

23 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

We've been importing too much food for too long, we've lost the ability it seems to eat seasonal produce, we want whatever we want whenever we want it, this will have to change.

That's a good post. 

[The Real Maroonblood]

3 minutes ago, Pans Jambo said:

I hope it does. Seasonal eating is the way forward; however, I'm just as guilty as the next person for eating strawberries in November.

Thinking the same about strawberries. 

It was a luxury just getting them and it was treat. 

[Dawnrazor]

8 minutes ago, Pans Jambo said:

I hope it does. Seasonal eating is the way forward; however, I'm just as guilty as the next person for eating strawberries in November.

If it's ever been right to say "Buy British" it applies to food, I'm as guilty as you and others for wanting strawberries in November and Avocado when I fancy one, if more people bought locally sourced, seasonal produce that would really help everyone. People are also really disconnected from where and how food comes from and what goes into it, I think the average (if there's such a thing) family spends less of a percentage of income on  food as any generation before.

[Pans Jambo]

1 minute ago, Dawnrazor said:

If it's ever been right to say "Buy British" it applies to food, I'm as guilty as you and others for wanting strawberries in November and Avocado when I fancy one, if more people bought locally sourced, seasonal produce that would really help everyone. People are also really disconnected from where and how food comes from and what goes into it, I think the average (if there's such a thing) family spends less of a percentage of income on  food as any generation before.

I don't disagree with any of that (well, buy Scottish unless there's only British available). What might also help is if farmers fields weren't sold for housing by the greedy land owners. Whole swathes of good arable land in East Lothian is gone on 4 bed detached houses with only 2 people living in them. Same everywhere.

[Dawnrazor]

5 minutes ago, Pans Jambo said:

I don't disagree with any of that (well, buy Scottish unless there's only British available). What might also help is if farmers fields weren't sold for housing by the greedy land owners. Whole swathes of good arable land in East Lothian is gone on 4 bed detached houses with only 2 people living in them. Same everywhere.

Yep, there has to be more building on Brown field sites because when good, productive agriculture land is lost it's lost forever, that's the scandalous thing that's happening right now, as we speak, wankers like Brewdog buying tens of thousands of acres, throwing families out of homes and farms and planting land with trees so they can claim "carbon credits".

I couldn't believe the amount of land, land that produced food, around Rosewell, Bonnyrigg and out to  Newtongrange that is now houses.

Edited August 4, 2022 by Dawnrazor

[Nucky Thompson]

16 minutes ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

Thinking the same about strawberries. 

It was a luxury just getting them and it was treat. 

I only have them for my frozen daiquiris 

[The Mighty Thor]

9 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

If it's ever been right to say "Buy British" it applies to food, I'm as guilty as you and others for wanting strawberries in November and Avocado when I fancy one, if more people bought locally sourced, seasonal produce that would really help everyone. People are also really disconnected from where and how food comes from and what goes into it, I think the average (if there's such a thing) family spends less of a percentage of income on  food as any generation before.

The farmers, who were sold down the river along with the fishermen, cannot even get the people to pick the fruit and veg to allow us to eat local or buy British. 

 

it's entirely a problem created by a particular political dogma.

 

You reap what you sow. Unless you're a British farmer. 

[Dawnrazor]

Just now, The Mighty Thor said:

The farmers, who were sold down the river along with the fishermen, cannot even get the people to pick the fruit and veg to allow us to eat local or buy British. 

 

it's entirely a problem created by a particular political dogma.

 

You reap what you sow. Unless you're a British farmer. 

I'm not sure about fruit but much of the veg is picked mechanically, obviously staff are needed but nothing like years gone bye, but aye, agricultural has suffered through  brexit, much more can be done, targeting agri' sub's to UK needs rather that othe EU countries should've been done better, I honestly thought brexit would've been a huge benefit to uk agricultural.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

7 minutes ago, Pans Jambo said:

I don't disagree with any of that (well, buy Scottish unless there's only British available). What might also help is if farmers fields weren't sold for housing by the greedy land owners. Whole swathes of good arable land in East Lothian is gone on 4 bed detached houses with only 2 people living in them. Same everywhere.

 

Land is needed for houses, land is also needed for food production, and if we want to stop using fossil fuels, then land will be needed for wind & solar farms.  I think we need to start being a lot more clever about how we use and manage the land.

[Pans Jambo]

Just now, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

Land is needed for houses, land is also needed for food production, and if we want to stop using fossil fuels, then land will be needed for wind & solar farms.  I think we need to start being a lot more clever about how we use and manage the land.

it is mate but these new estates are full of 4 & 5 bed detached houses. We also need to be smarter about what we build with the land we have.

[The Mighty Thor]

1 minute ago, Dawnrazor said:

I'm not sure about fruit but much of the veg is picked mechanically, obviously staff are needed but nothing like years gone bye, but aye, agricultural has suffered through  brexit, much more can be done, targeting agri' sub's to UK needs rather that othe EU countries should've been done better, I honestly thought brexit would've been a huge benefit to uk agricultural.

A lot of people did think that Brexit would be beneficial and the uplands would require sunglasses. Removing both your workforce pool and largest market at the same time is sheer lunacy. 

 

The fact that we cannot get the stuff out the fields but would rather import it from all over the globe is modern Britain in a nutshell. 

 

Prices go up, night follows day and bears do indeed jobby in the forest.