Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[Don Dan]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/animal-medicine-might-play-crucial-role-developing-sought-after/
 

 

[Don Dan]

New cases continuing downward trend

The number of newly confirmed cases each day has been falling since a peak in April, despite an increase in the number of tests being carried out, and the seven-day rolling average shows a clear downward trend.

A further 1,871 cases were announced on Wednesday - compared with 1,613 announced on Tuesday.

However estimates by the ONS suggest there could be 8,000 cases per day in England alone - not including cases in hospitals or care homes - where people either show no symptoms or have mild symptoms and are not tested for the virus.

Risk in lockdown easing too soon, warn scientists

 

 

 

[Sooperstar]

After Boris forcing parliament back in person so that he could have his cheerleaders around for PMQs Alok Sharma is now self-isolating!

[Cade]

8 minutes ago, Sooperstar said:

After Boris forcing parliament back in person so that he could have his cheerleaders around for PMQs Alok Sharma is now self-isolating!

 

Didn't do him any good, as they are sticking to the rule of only 50 MPs in the chamber at any one time.

 

The whole "no more remote votes" thing was a complete waste of time and driven by Mogg's obsession with tradition and a desire to be seen to be leading the nation back to work.

[JudyJudyJudy]

1 hour ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Thanks FAB. I'd heard it mentioned quite a bit. So, an estimate, probably based on polls or household surveys??

The 8000 now makes more sense although its just an estimate

[The Mighty Thor]

Alok Sharma has self isolated and has been tested after falling ill at WM today. 

He was sweating profusely at the dispatch box today and became 'quite unwell'.  

He was of course there yesterday for Moggy's pantomime with hundreds of other MPs. 

A wee early tester for the TT&I teams. 

Who were you with? 600 other MPs.

You all need to isolate for 14 days 😂 

 

[The Internet]

Is it still 'political point scoring' to call this government an embarrassing shambles? 

[SectionDJambo]

Dispatches programme tonight was a timely reminder of the shambles and dithering of the government, and it’s advisors, when early decisive action could have prevented thousands of deaths. Johnson looking particularly inept and irresponsible during the critical time in February and March.
Government wouldn’t appear to answer any questions, saying they only followed scientific advice. So everyone else to blame except them.

[kila]

8 hours ago, felix said:

That's incredible. There was lots of science pointing to the effectiveness & safety of hydroxychloroquine, then the surgisphere data appears , claiming a drug that's been safely administered for two years, is potentially unsafe.

The u-turn as a result, could have potentially cost lives and saved suffering.

This story shouldn't go away.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Jeff]

It really would be a shame if Mogg got a bad dose of the virus. I would never wish anything on anyone but the guy reminds me of Himmler

[felix]

10 minutes ago, kila said:

 

 

UK scientists are looking at hydroxychloroquine to treat the disease, not prevent it's spread, as the study you posted recorded.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/19/uk-to-test-hydroxychloroqine-as-coronavirus-treatment

 

Chloroquine has been shown to be effective agsinst several viruses, including acute respitory syndrome coronovirus (SARS-CoV). 

And it's very cheap.

I'd have thought further studies and tests would be worthwhile and would be very suspicious of anyone faking data to suggest deadly side effects, in order to stop current trials .

[kila]

7 minutes ago, felix said:

 

UK scientists are looking at hydroxychloroquine to treat the disease, not prevent it's spread, as the study you posted recorded.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/19/uk-to-test-hydroxychloroqine-as-coronavirus-treatment

 

Chloroquine has been shown to be effective agsinst several viruses, including acute respitory syndrome coronovirus (SARS-CoV). 

And it's very cheap.

I'd have thought further studies and tests would be worthwhile and would be very suspicious of anyone faking data to suggest deadly side effects, in order to stop current trials .

 

Ah gotcha.

 

Faking bad data to maybe cause shares to plunge... when did Trump and co start investing in hydroxychloroquine again?

 

[Shanks said no]

7 hours ago, Natural Orders said:

Depends if you have used anyone else’s bathroom or let someone use yours (who doesn’t live with you)

 

But you said my wife could go to the toilet, it was only garden tourists that were banned.

[DETTY29]

13 hours ago, Mauricio Pinilla said:

 

When did the likes of Spain and Italy last have that amount in a day? 

We are past our two week curve delay and our daily deaths were more than the remaining EU countries combined. 

Edited June 4, 2020 by DETTY29

[The Internet]

34 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

We are past our two week curve delay and our daily deaths were more than the remaining EU countries combined. 

 

No doubt the other countries are downplaying their figures and we're the only ones telling the truth, or we're deliberately overstating the deaths to put the fear into people, or something something something blah blah everything's fine. 

[hueyview]

13 hours ago, Mauricio Pinilla said:

Obviously I'll be accused of being a doom monger who sees no positives and wants everyone to die but the numbers aren't that good are they, for 11 weeks in. Just hope it doesn't spike after these last few days. 

With the march in London, relaxed distancing, and good weather things don't look god

[hueyview]

Just now, hueyview said:

With the march in London, relaxed distancing, and good weather things don't look god

Good, I meant...   But "don't look god" might be apt........ 

[hueyview]

9 hours ago, Jeff said:

It really would be a shame if Mogg got a bad dose of the virus. I would never wish anything on anyone but the guy reminds me of Himmler

He reminds me of Walter from The bash street kids in the Beano...

[vegas-voss]

1 hour ago, hueyview said:

He reminds me of Walter from The bash street kids in the Beano...

Think he looks more like Teacher will be spitting image when the hair goes.

[jack D and coke]

On 03/06/2020 at 01:04, Natural Orders said:

 

Some churches are concerned too 

 

Youre at it. You are absolutely at it. 
 

[DETTY29]

2 hours ago, Mauricio Pinilla said:

 

No doubt the other countries are downplaying their figures and we're the only ones telling the truth, or we're deliberately overstating the deaths to put the fear into people, or something something something blah blah everything's fine. 

Far frm convinced we are on top of our figures either...

[Francis Albert]

21 hours ago, Cade said:

Swedes admit that too many have died and that they should have done a better lockdown than just asking people to please think about maybe staying at home.

Which Swedes? Lat I saw there was still fairly widespread support in Sweden for their approach (which of course was not quite how you characterise it!)

Our own Prof Ferguson says outcome in Sweden so far in the spread of the virus has been pretty much  in line with that in most countries who have locked down.

Certainly so far they are doing significantly better better than UK and Belgium for example in terms of deaths and cases.

They do share the common issue of large numbers of care home deaths

The big difference so far is that the Swedish economy has not been trashed and Sweden has not built up enormous deficits. Sweden may therefore escape years of economic impact including unemployment and further austerity and be able to sustain its enviable social welfare systems. And avoid post lockdown trauma and depression which others will see.

Quite a few maybes and so fars in there for the simple reason it is far too early to judge. Don't understand why so many seem to be in a hurry to see Sweden fail.

 

Edited June 4, 2020 by Francis Albert

[The Internet]

There it is again, we're all desperate for the worst to happen

[graygo]

@Francis Albert Even the guy who made Sweden's policy for dealing with the pandemic has said that they should have done things differently.

They had the worst per capita death rate on the planet in the last week, which flies in the face of your "Certainly so far they are doing significantly better than UK and Belgium for example in terms of deaths and cases." comment.

Maybe not a good idea to judge anyone's response against ours and Belgium's, hardly a good benchmark. How do they compare with their neighbouring countries? Have a look, it's frightening.

You obviously never read the recent link someone posted, or chose to ignore it but here it is again. 

The poster you took to task ( @Cade ) was correct, they no longer have the widespread support from the public.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/dae6d006-9adc-46d5-9b4e-79a7841022e8

[Beni]

30 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Which Swedes? Lat I saw there was still fairly widespread support in Sweden for their approach (which of course was not quite how you characterise it!)

Our own Prof Ferguson says outcome in Sweden so far in the spread of the virus has been pretty much  in line with that in most countries who have locked down.

Certainly so far they are doing significantly better better than UK and Belgium for example in terms of deaths and cases.

They do share the common issue of large numbers of care home deaths

The big difference so far is that the Swedish economy has not been trashed and Sweden has not built up enormous deficits. Sweden may therefore escape years of economic impact including unemployment and further austerity and be able to sustain its enviable social welfare systems. And avoid post lockdown trauma and depression which others will see.

Quite a few maybes and so fars in there for the simple reason it is far too early to judge. Don't understand why so many seem to be in a hurry to see Sweden fail.

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/05/19/2035398/0/en/Swedish-government-debt-grows-as-virus-effects-hit-budget.html

[The Real Maroonblood]

16 minutes ago, Mauricio Pinilla said:

There it is again, we're all desperate for the worst to happen

[Francis Albert]

1 minute ago, graygo said:

@Francis Albert Even the guy who made Sweden's policy for dealing with the pandemic has said that they should have done things differently.

They had the worst per capita death rate on the planet in the last week, which flies in the face of your "Certainly so far they are doing significantly better than UK and Belgium for example in terms of deaths and cases." comment.

Maybe not a good idea to judge anyone's response against ours and Belgium's, hardly a good benchmark. How do they compare with their neighbouring countries? Have a look, it's frightening.

You obviously never read the recent link someone posted, or chose to ignore it but here it is again. 

The poster you took to task ( @Cade ) was correct, they no longer have the widespread support from the public.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/dae6d006-9adc-46d5-9b4e-79a7841022e8

I hadn't read that and still haven't - it seems to be behind a pay wall.

Looking at the course of the virus overall not just the last week Sweden has far from the worst per capita death rare in Europe in every table I have seen. Not just in comparison with UK and Belgium but also with Spain and Italy for example. My "significantly better than SOME SO FAR" comment stands

.By neighbouring countries I assume you mean Norway and Denmark for example which certainly have very low rates.

Until I  see some explanation of why Belgium has a death rate double that of the Netherlands I will struggle to accept lock down in itself is  the only or even major factor in differential death rates. Or the significance of being neighbours for that matter.

Of course they think they should have done things differently. So should everyone.

But as I say we will be able to judge outcomes in a year or maybe two.

[graygo]

@Francis Albert

 

The architect of Sweden’s controversial lighter lockdown policy for dealing with coronavirus has for the first time conceded the Scandinavian country should have imposed more restrictions to avoid having such a high death toll.

Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist, agreed with the interviewer on Sveriges Radio that too many people had died in the country.

“If we would encounter the same disease, with exactly what we know about it today, I think we would land midway between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world did,” said Mr Tegnell in the interview broadcast on Wednesday morning.

Mr Tegnell’s admission is striking as for months he has criticised other countries’ lockdowns and insisted that Sweden’s approach was more sustainable despite heavy international scrutiny of its stubbornly high death toll.

Sweden’s centre-left government on Monday said it would appoint a commission to investigate the country’s approach to coronavirus before the summer, bowing to pressure from opposition politicians.

The public mood in Sweden appears to have shifted somewhat since neighbouring Norway and Denmark last week opened their borders to each other but not their close neighbour. Sweden has reported a much higher death toll relative to its population size than Norway.

Mr Tegnell said in the interview: “There is quite obviously a potential for improvement in what we have done in Sweden. It would be good to know exactly what to close down to better prevent the spread of the virus.”

He added that because nearly all other European countries locked down suddenly, it was difficult to know which measures worked best. Sweden kept its schools for under 16s open, a policy that health authorities in Norway and Denmark now think wise. It also kept its borders open to European visitors and relied on public co-operation rather than formal rules for social distancing.

Mr Tegnell insisted later on Wednesday that Sweden’s strategy was still good and that it would stick to it, though he conceded there was always room for improvement.

The Swedish public has strongly backed Mr Tegnell’s approach but politicians and diplomats said they sensed a change in mood in recent days.

“Every week that goes by, the public discussion grows about the measures that have been taken or not,” said Hans Wallmark, a centre-right opposition MP.

He said the public were dismayed by three things: the high death toll in care homes that makes many people “almost ashamed”; the failure to deliver a mass testing scheme for Covid-19; and the closed borders for Swedes. “All those things are leading to a more critical discussion among Swedes,” he added.

A former senior Swedish diplomat said: “We have had a very deep and intimate Nordic co-operation in a great many aspects. People are not very happy that our close Nordic neighbours are closing their borders to us, and they are feeling worried and concerned that our strategy seems to have led to the worst kind of results.”

Sweden's diplomatic isolation in the Nordics has coincided with a more critical tone from Swedish media.

“In the short run, it might be fair to say that Sweden is isolated. The general tone of people and the press is that they are more critical. The general public is waking up to the fact that neighbouring countries and others are critical,” said a European diplomat in Stockholm.

Sweden has had 4,468 Covid-19 deaths whereas Denmark and Norway, each with about half their neighbour’s population, have had 580 and 237, respectively. Both Copenhagen and Oslo said the higher infection rate in Sweden was behind their decision not to open their borders to Swedes.

Carl Bildt, the former centre-right Swedish prime minister, said: “It is disturbing that Swedes are considered somewhat more unsafe than others in our part of Europe.” He pointed to particular anger in the southern region of Skane, which is connected to Denmark by the Oresund bridge from Malmo to Copenhagen and where the infection rate is far lower than in Stockholm.

“I guess they feel to be punished for policies decided in a faraway capital up north,” Mr Bildt added.

Sweden has open borders to all EU and Norwegian citizens, and thousands of Danes streamed over the bridge to visit their summer cottages in Skane this Whitsun weekend. On Tuesday, Danish police reported 3km tailbacks on the bridge as Danes queued to return home.

Mette Frederiksen, Denmark’s centre-left prime minister, has said that her country is in talks to look at opening up to individual Swedish regions such as Skane, while Oslo is also holding talks with Stockholm about a potential opening up.
 

[Francis Albert]

35 minutes ago, fancy a brew said:

 

 

 

 

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/05/19/2035398/0/en/Swedish-government-debt-grows-as-virus-effects-hit-budget.html

The last real figures as opposed to forecasts I saw a day or two ago was a reduction so far of 0.3% in GDP in Sweden compared to 3% in the Eurozone and 2% in UK. 

Another significant point there of course is that Sweden's debt is increasing from a low level following years of surpluses, which differs somewhat from the UK and others' position!

As I say we can judge in a year or two but I have not seen anyone suggesting that Sweden's economy will suffer compared to those with a strict lockdown. Unless I suppose there is a massive increase in the spread and impact of the virus in Sweden, which of course remains a possibility. I am just not rushing to judgment.

Edited June 4, 2020 by Francis Albert

[graygo]

@Francis Albert

 

This is also behind a paywall but the relevant details are there.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/20/sweden-becomes-country-highest-coronavirus-death-rate-per-capita/

[Francis Albert]

9 minutes ago, graygo said:

@Francis Albert

 

The architect of Sweden’s controversial lighter lockdown policy for dealing with coronavirus has for the first time conceded the Scandinavian country should have imposed more restrictions to avoid having such a high death toll.

 

Thanks. I won't copy it all but I think it is fair to say it is a more balanced summary than the "headline" summary paraphrased  earlier on here.

And doesn't really contradict anything I have said.

Edited June 4, 2020 by Francis Albert

[graygo]

10 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Thanks. I won't copy it all but I think it is fair to say it is a more balanced summary than the "headline" summary paraphrased  earlier on here.

And doesn't really contradict anything I have said.

 

I give up.

 

[Taffin]

40 minutes ago, graygo said:

@Francis Albert

 

The architect of Sweden’s controversial lighter lockdown policy for dealing with coronavirus has for the first time conceded the Scandinavian country should have imposed more restrictions to avoid having such a high death toll.

Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist, agreed with the interviewer on Sveriges Radio that too many people had died in the country.

“If we would encounter the same disease, with exactly what we know about it today, I think we would land midway between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world did,” said Mr Tegnell in the interview broadcast on Wednesday morning.

Mr Tegnell’s admission is striking as for months he has criticised other countries’ lockdowns and insisted that Sweden’s approach was more sustainable despite heavy international scrutiny of its stubbornly high death toll.

Sweden’s centre-left government on Monday said it would appoint a commission to investigate the country’s approach to coronavirus before the summer, bowing to pressure from opposition politicians.

The public mood in Sweden appears to have shifted somewhat since neighbouring Norway and Denmark last week opened their borders to each other but not their close neighbour. Sweden has reported a much higher death toll relative to its population size than Norway.

Mr Tegnell said in the interview: “There is quite obviously a potential for improvement in what we have done in Sweden. It would be good to know exactly what to close down to better prevent the spread of the virus.”

He added that because nearly all other European countries locked down suddenly, it was difficult to know which measures worked best. Sweden kept its schools for under 16s open, a policy that health authorities in Norway and Denmark now think wise. It also kept its borders open to European visitors and relied on public co-operation rather than formal rules for social distancing.

Mr Tegnell insisted later on Wednesday that Sweden’s strategy was still good and that it would stick to it, though he conceded there was always room for improvement.

The Swedish public has strongly backed Mr Tegnell’s approach but politicians and diplomats said they sensed a change in mood in recent days.

“Every week that goes by, the public discussion grows about the measures that have been taken or not,” said Hans Wallmark, a centre-right opposition MP.

He said the public were dismayed by three things: the high death toll in care homes that makes many people “almost ashamed”; the failure to deliver a mass testing scheme for Covid-19; and the closed borders for Swedes. “All those things are leading to a more critical discussion among Swedes,” he added.

A former senior Swedish diplomat said: “We have had a very deep and intimate Nordic co-operation in a great many aspects. People are not very happy that our close Nordic neighbours are closing their borders to us, and they are feeling worried and concerned that our strategy seems to have led to the worst kind of results.”

Sweden's diplomatic isolation in the Nordics has coincided with a more critical tone from Swedish media.

“In the short run, it might be fair to say that Sweden is isolated. The general tone of people and the press is that they are more critical. The general public is waking up to the fact that neighbouring countries and others are critical,” said a European diplomat in Stockholm.

Sweden has had 4,468 Covid-19 deaths whereas Denmark and Norway, each with about half their neighbour’s population, have had 580 and 237, respectively. Both Copenhagen and Oslo said the higher infection rate in Sweden was behind their decision not to open their borders to Swedes.

Carl Bildt, the former centre-right Swedish prime minister, said: “It is disturbing that Swedes are considered somewhat more unsafe than others in our part of Europe.” He pointed to particular anger in the southern region of Skane, which is connected to Denmark by the Oresund bridge from Malmo to Copenhagen and where the infection rate is far lower than in Stockholm.

“I guess they feel to be punished for policies decided in a faraway capital up north,” Mr Bildt added.

Sweden has open borders to all EU and Norwegian citizens, and thousands of Danes streamed over the bridge to visit their summer cottages in Skane this Whitsun weekend. On Tuesday, Danish police reported 3km tailbacks on the bridge as Danes queued to return home.

Mette Frederiksen, Denmark’s centre-left prime minister, has said that her country is in talks to look at opening up to individual Swedish regions such as Skane, while Oslo is also holding talks with Stockholm about a potential opening up.
 

 

Interesting that he would go for something somewhere between Sweden and the rest of the world. I wonder what that would look like? Lockdown 'lite' as the UKs has been branded or even less still with more remaining open as he references wondering would to close and what would stay open. 

 

By the sounds of it he's still pretty happy with it saying it's good and they'll stick to it. Mostly it sounds like criticism from others has left the population feeling embarrassed and he's trying to build bridges. Peer pressure almost.

 

Being honest, I think I'd rather be living in Sweden than here in relation to the handling of this. Less deaths per capita, more freedom to act responsibly and so far less economic damage. Absolutely can see that others would prefer to be locked up so they are even more safe but it's not for me.

[graygo]

Goes some way to explaining Belgium's poor numbers.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-belgium-death-toll-lockdown-trump-who-uk-spain-italy-a9494186.html

[Beni]

19 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

Interesting that he would go for something somewhere between Sweden and the rest of the world. I wonder what that would look like? Lockdown 'lite' as the UKs has been branded or even less still with more remaining open as he references wondering would to close and what would stay open. 

 

By the sounds of it he's still pretty happy with it saying it's good and they'll stick to it. Mostly it sounds like criticism from others has left the population feeling embarrassed and he's trying to build bridges. Peer pressure almost.

 

Being honest, I think I'd rather be living in Sweden than here in relation to the handling of this. Less deaths per capita, more freedom to act responsibly and so far less economic damage. Absolutely can see that others would prefer to be locked up so they are even more safe but it's not for me.

 

Do you think the death rates would be higher or lower in the UK if there hadn't been a lockdown?

[Taffin]

12 minutes ago, fancy a brew said:

 

Do you think the death rates would be higher or lower in the UK if there hadn't been a lockdown?

 

I don't know is the honest answer. I'd assume higher but then other countries (Sweden in this example) didn't lockdown and have lower death per capita. In most of the other examples (South Korea) they did other things instead to mitigate it. Lockdown or nothing were not the only two options.

 

I'm not overly interested in some kind of coronavirus competition of who did best though; it's also still far too early to tell. Just that personally, I'd have preferred to be living somewhere that trusted people to behave responsibly and safely where we could still do things and our economy wasn't wrecked; it's just an added bonus that it looks as though I'd actually be at less risk from the virus there too.

 

Edited June 4, 2020 by Taffin

[kila]

10 minutes ago, Taffin said:

I don't know is the honest answer. I'd assume higher but then other countries (Sweden in this example) didn't lockdown and have lower death per capita. In most of the other examples (South Korea) they did other things instead to mitigate it. Lockdown or nothing were not the only two options.

 

I'm not overly interested in some kind of coronavirus competition of who did best though; it's also still far too early to tell. Just that personally, I'd have preferred to be living somewhere that trusted people to behave responsibly and safely where we could still do things and our economy wasn't wrecked; it's just an added bonus that it looks as though I'd actually be at less risk from the virus there too.

 

The NHS was becoming overwhelmed - ICU wards were tripled in size in some places and were needed, junior doctors graduating early to help, thousands coming out of retirement to help, nurses retrained quickly to help in intensive care etc. Thousands of operations cancelled, treatments postponed.

 

UK had to go into lockdown because the NHS wasn't prepared. There's politics behind that of course.

 

[Taffin]

Just now, kila said:

 

The NHS was becoming overwhelmed - ICU wards were tripled in size in some places and were needed, junior doctors graduating early to help, thousands coming out of retirement to help, nurses retrained quickly to help in intensive care etc. Thousands of operations cancelled, treatments postponed.

 

UK had to go into lockdown because the NHS wasn't prepared. There's politics behind that of course.

 

 

I'm not arguing against locking down, I'm saying I, personally, would have preferred to have been living in Sweden. As an aside, I don't believe the NHS was close to being overwhelmed or reaching capacity. A large part of that is in thanks to the agility of our NHS staff though, absolutely. However, taking it at face value as true, does that not tell you we should have a better resources NHS rather than trying to minimise those who need it? If Sweden has done so awful at handling this, why hasn't their health services been overwhelmed?

 

 

[Jambo 4 Ever]

19 hours ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

If you’re having a slash is it 2 metres from the pan?

 

 

 

18 hours ago, graygo said:

 

Those are not rules, they are guidelines.

 

Google it if you don't know the difference.

 

On 03/06/2020 at 11:55, Whatever said:

Went for a pish in my mums house yesterday.

 

Stop acting like twits 

[kila]

5 minutes ago, Natural Orders said:

Stop acting like twits 

 

So what are you going to do?

[Francis Albert]

1 hour ago, graygo said:

Goes some way to explaining Belgium's poor numbers.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-belgium-death-toll-lockdown-trump-who-uk-spain-italy-a9494186.html

Thanks. That reminds me that the first explanation offered a few weeks ago by officials in both countries was that Holland was underestimating and Belgium overestimating, which this bears out. A factor of 2 differencce suggests reported rates should be treated with some caution.There is an agreed methodology on excess deaths but I haven't seen a comparison between Belgium and Netherlands on that basis.

 

(The difference in reported deaths in Norway (237) and Scotland (nearly 4000), countries of similar size,  seems so large as to suggest some difference in how deaths are counted.)

Edited June 4, 2020 by Francis Albert

[graygo]

43 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

I'm not arguing against locking down, I'm saying I, personally, would have preferred to have been living in Sweden. As an aside, I don't believe the NHS was close to being overwhelmed or reaching capacity. A large part of that is in thanks to the agility of our NHS staff though, absolutely. However, taking it at face value as true, does that not tell you we should have a better resources NHS rather than trying to minimise those who need it? If Sweden has done so awful at handling this, why hasn't their health services been overwhelmed?

 

 

 

I think I just heard in the briefing that we were 43% over our normal level of ICU capacity at the peak of the outbreak, obviously this was addressed.

[JudyJudyJudy]

Now down to single figures in deaths in Scotland ( 9 ) hopefully this continues 

[Beni]

1 hour ago, Taffin said:

 

I don't know is the honest answer. I'd assume higher but then other countries (Sweden in this example) didn't lockdown and have lower death per capita. In most of the other examples (South Korea) they did other things instead to mitigate it. Lockdown or nothing were not the only two options.

 

I'm not overly interested in some kind of coronavirus competition of who did best though; it's also still far too early to tell. Just that personally, I'd have preferred to be living somewhere that trusted people to behave responsibly and safely where we could still do things and our economy wasn't wrecked; it's just an added bonus that it looks as though I'd actually be at less risk from the virus there too.

 

 

Before the lockdown the number of cases in the UK was doubling every 3 days, whereas now, new positive cases are stable at around 1800 per day. I can't see a logical argument that there could have been fewer deaths at this point without a lockdown. Spain and Italy were seeing their health services under enormous strains, they had a lockdown, and rates of deaths have improved dramatically. Again I can't see how not having a lockdown would have been better for those countries.

On the other hand Japan didn't have a lockdown, but has only had 894 deaths(see link), but to say the UK should've followed Japan's example and we'd only have had 894 deaths is ridiculous.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/7a4ce8b5-20a3-40ab-abaf-1de213a66403

 

It's true that lockdown or nothing were not the only choices, the UK originally went for a herd immunity strategy which then made it harder for the subsequent lockdown to be successful. It also did very little in terms of testing and track and trace.

I think it's fair to say nobody wanted a lockdown, or to do substantial damage to the economy, but that was seen as the lesser of two evils when the scale of the likely death toll became apparent. The government didn't have the benefit of hindsight, they had to make choices and they chose to prioritise lives in the short term. Maybe an effective treatment will be discovered, or the virus will mutate to a less deadly form, or a vaccine will be developed. There are a lot of unknowns, but I think it's difficult to argue that a government shouldn't do all it can to keep as many people alive as possible in the short term.

[kila]

1 hour ago, Taffin said:

I'm not arguing against locking down, I'm saying I, personally, would have preferred to have been living in Sweden. As an aside, I don't believe the NHS was close to being overwhelmed or reaching capacity. A large part of that is in thanks to the agility of our NHS staff though, absolutely. However, taking it at face value as true, does that not tell you we should have a better resources NHS rather than trying to minimise those who need it? If Sweden has done so awful at handling this, why hasn't their health services been overwhelmed?

 

Yes in an ideal world the NHS would be somewhat over resourced so when a major crisis hits there is existing capacity. I don't think doctors and nurses should be doing 12-14 hour shifts as a normal routine - doubling the workforce and balancing better hours means there is scope to pull more staff in for longer hours when such a crisis hits. Rather than pulling tons out of retirement, quickly retraining an incredibly stressful job etc.

 

But that's not what it is like. And party politics is a huge part of it.

 

Sweden's hospitals were getting stretched, their ICU wards at capacity and also low PPE supplies. But I don't know what sort of work rotas they do, and if they had adequate staff for the increase in ICU admissions. But I imagine they do given some of their doctors/nurses got a 220% salary increase during the crisis in worst hit areas.

 

https://www.icuregswe.org/en/data--results/covid-19-in-swedish-intensive-care/

 

 

 

[Taffin]

6 minutes ago, fancy a brew said:

 

Before the lockdown the number of cases in the UK was doubling every 3 days, whereas now, new positive cases are stable at around 1800 per day. I can't see a logical argument that there could have been fewer deaths at this point without a lockdown. Spain and Italy were seeing their health services under enormous strains, they had a lockdown, and rates of deaths have improved dramatically. Again I can't see how not having a lockdown would have been better for those countries.

On the other hand Japan didn't have a lockdown, but has only had 894 deaths(see link), but to say the UK should've followed Japan's example and we'd only have had 894 deaths is ridiculous.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/7a4ce8b5-20a3-40ab-abaf-1de213a66403

 

It's true that lockdown or nothing were not the only choices, the UK originally went for a herd immunity strategy which then made it harder for the subsequent lockdown to be successful. It also did very little in terms of testing and track and trace.

I think it's fair to say nobody wanted a lockdown, or to do substantial damage to the economy, but that was seen as the lesser of two evils when the scale of the likely death toll became apparent. The government didn't have the benefit of hindsight, they had to make choices and they chose to prioritise lives in the short term. Maybe an effective treatment will be discovered, or the virus will mutate to a less deadly form, or a vaccine will be developed. There are a lot of unknowns, but I think it's difficult to argue that a government shouldn't do all it can to keep as many people alive as possible in the short term.

 

 

All fair points and I'm not going to argue against them. I'd still preferred to have lived through this in Sweden though, which really was my only point. I'd be interested to know more why those denouncing Sweden's approach wouldn't have preferred to have been living through that, I find it hard to understand.

 

The only part I would query is the part in bold. If keeping people alive in the short term results in more dying in the long term then I think you can argue against it. I'm not suggesting that will definitely be the case here but I do think it's a possibility that the knock on effects will devastating for many and result in more deaths. It's a terrible situation and I don't believe there's a right or wrong approach that's as black and white as many are making out on this thread, at least not at this juncture. We may never really know but we'll be better placed to tell in the years to follow.

[hueyview]

4 hours ago, vegas-voss said:

Think he looks more like Teacher will be spitting image when the hair goes.

That's the boy with the tash and motorboard hat.....

Can see giving boys six of the best, with that came....   

[vegas-voss]

2 minutes ago, hueyview said:

That's the boy with the tash and motorboard hat.....

Can see giving boys six of the best, with that came....   

Fecking weirdos the lot of them.It is mental the UK keep voting for these toffs.

[graygo]

Just read that the UK had more deaths from Covid-19 yesterday than the rest of the EU combined. Ridiculous really for an island country.

[hueyview]

2 minutes ago, vegas-voss said:

Fecking weirdos the lot of them.It is mental the UK keep voting for these toffs.

Well we had Mr Blair, libertarian but connected, then Cameron and Osborne and now Boris , Gove and Rees Mogg.....