Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[escobri]

someone ask about excess deaths?

 

Interesting. 

 

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

32 minutes ago, escobri said:

someone ask about excess deaths?

 

Interesting. 

 

a couple of people have called him out already for a history of misinformation and making things up

 

he also just a nurse apparently rather a (proper) doctor

 

i watch some of his stuff but with the mindset that’s he’s probably just one of those grifters making stuff up

 

 

[Gizmo]

21 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

a couple of people have called him out already for a history of misinformation and making things up

 

he also just a nurse apparently rather a (proper) doctor

 

i watch some of his stuff but with the mindset that’s he’s probably just one of those grifters making stuff up

 

 

Like most threads these days, it's polluted by 'youtube researchers' that don't understand a damn ****ing thing they are citing. 

I have seen some of his videos but he veers wildly away from good citation of facts the longer his channel was on air. Conclusion: a grifter following the algorithm

EDIT: Adding an actual chart that cites its sources. US chart.



https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/united-states-rates-of-covid-19-deaths-by-vaccination-status 

Edited September 27, 2023 by Gizmo

[N Lincs Jambo]

20 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

a couple of people have called him out already for a history of misinformation and making things up

 

he also just a nurse apparently rather a (proper) doctor

 

i watch some of his stuff but with the mindset that’s he’s probably just one of those grifters making stuff up

 

 

 

You're playing the man not the ball there MMM. He is a doctor and has gone from advocating people getting the jab 2 years ago to being against now based on evidence as it comes in. All from official government data.

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

1 minute ago, N Lincs Jambo said:

 

You're playing the man not the ball there MMM. He is a doctor and has gone from advocating people getting the jab 2 years ago to being against now based on evidence as it comes in. All from official government data.

I should have worded it differently - someone on here said he was nurse not a doctor - I personally have no idea what he is

 

i also view him with the mindset that he could be a grifter based on what people have said on here

 

now you’ve said he deals with official government data and has changed his stance on some things (unusual these days) I’ll also take that into account if I ever watch anymore of his videos

 

the ones I watched were about excess deaths which as you say seemed to reference proper data but the consensus on here is that they either don’t exist or are due to nhs delays which seemed plausible to a point but didn’t address the excess deaths at the younger ages (as normally they would be healthy and wouldn’t need the nhs) assuming the doctor/nurse isn’t just making up the age-related excess deaths

[N Lincs Jambo]

Just now, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

I should have worded it differently - someone on here said he was nurse not a doctor - I personally have no idea what he is

 

i also view him with the mindset that he could be a grifter based on what people have said on here

 

now you’ve said he deals with official government data and has changed his stance on some things (unusual these days) I’ll also take that into account if I ever watch anymore of his videos

 

the ones I watched were about excess deaths which as you say seemed to reference proper data but the consensus on here is that they either don’t exist or are due to nhs delays which seemed plausible to a point but didn’t address the excess deaths at the younger ages (as normally they would be healthy and wouldn’t need the nhs) assuming the doctor/nurse isn’t just making up the age-related excess deaths

 

Cheers for the reply. The excess deaths are not too hard to verify. The ONS releases data which, although it can initially be tricky to interpret, will give you the info you need to work it out. It seems to me that the surge in excess deaths started 2nd half of 2022 compared to the 5-year average and has been well in excess ever since. Worth checking out.

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

14 minutes ago, Gizmo said:

Like most threads these days, it's polluted by 'youtube researchers' that don't understand a damn ****ing thing they are citing. 

I have seen some of his videos but he veers wildly away from good citation of facts the longer his channel was on air. Conclusion: a grifter following the algorithm

EDIT: Adding an actual chart that cites its sources. US chart.



https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/united-states-rates-of-covid-19-deaths-by-vaccination-status 

I haven’t watched the doc / nurses video and I’ve only had a fleeting glance at your chart

 

your chart is covid deaths?

 

from the title of the video it looks like that his data is overall deaths so I’m assuming he may agree with you that in the vaccinated group less people are dying of covid but taking into account all causes more vaccinated people are dying which kind of overshadows the good news on the covid front ?

 

assuming data is reasonable and comparing appropriate apples with apples etc

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

4 minutes ago, N Lincs Jambo said:

 

Cheers for the reply. The excess deaths are not too hard to verify. The ONS releases data which, although it can initially be tricky to interpret, will give you the info you need to work it out. It seems to me that the surge in excess deaths started 2nd half of 2022 compared to the 5-year average and has been well in excess ever since. Worth checking out.

what makes that actually worse if true and if I’m understanding it correctly is the 5 year average will include the pandemic deaths (unless they’ve been adjusted or stripped out) so there are excess deaths on top of an average which is already higher than a 5 year average where all years are ‘normal’ due to pandemic deaths ?

 

 

[N Lincs Jambo]

2 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

what makes that actually worse if true and if I’m understanding it correctly is the 5 year average will include the pandemic deaths (unless they’ve been adjusted or stripped out) so there are excess deaths on top of an average which is already higher than a 5 year average where all years are ‘normal’ due to pandemic deaths ?

 

 

 

Yep, you've got it in a nutshell.

[Gizmo]

6 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

I haven’t watched the doc / nurses video and I’ve only had a fleeting glance at your chart

 

your chart is covid deaths?

 

from the title of the video it looks like that his data is overall deaths so I’m assuming he may agree with you that in the vaccinated group less people are dying of covid but taking into account all causes more vaccinated people are dying which kind of overshadows the good news on the covid front ?

 

assuming data is reasonable and comparing appropriate apples with apples etc

Fair point, I'll need to dig out more data as that would get complex fast and it is easy to cherry-pick. 

[Costanza]

It's impossible to have a nuanced intelligent debate on covid on here.

Downright misinformation about vaccines being dangerous and children being completely unaffected are thrown out there with abandon.

Naturally no one mentions long covid as opposed to "experimental vaccines" because that doesn't fit the confirmation bias despite there being way more evidence of it's impact than the vaccine.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65399072

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65056619

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-london-60700320

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-66890505

 

However for balance...

 

https://news.sky.com/story/long-covid-risks-are-distorted-by-flawed-research-study-finds-12969777

 

 

We can talk about the response,  the damage of lockdowns etc. but 

essentially though we are all laypersons trying to understand complex data, so how the feck anyone can throw out claims like the start of my post with real certainty is laughable. 

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

1 hour ago, Costanza said:

It's impossible to have a nuanced intelligent debate on covid on here.

Downright misinformation about vaccines being dangerous and children being completely unaffected are thrown out there with abandon.

Naturally no one mentions long covid as opposed to "experimental vaccines" because that doesn't fit the confirmation bias despite there being way more evidence of it's impact than the vaccine.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65399072

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65056619

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-london-60700320

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-66890505

 

However for balance...

 

https://news.sky.com/story/long-covid-risks-are-distorted-by-flawed-research-study-finds-12969777

 

 

We can talk about the response,  the damage of lockdowns etc. but 

essentially though we are all laypersons trying to understand complex data, so how the feck anyone can throw out claims like the start of my post with real certainty is laughable. 

sounds like there might be a big bunch of excess deaths though following our posts the other day

 

also if it’s not hit the lexicon already “long vaccine” is on its way - presumably similar and as real as long Covid - can’t be easy for either group and sounds like the reaction of others may be similar to what ME sufferers have had in the past ☹️

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Costanza]

10 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

sounds like there might be a big bunch of excess deaths though following our posts the other day

 

also if it’s not hit the lexicon already “long vaccine” is on its way - presumably similar and as real as long Covid - can’t be easy for either group and sounds like the reaction of others may be similar to what ME sufferers have had in the past ☹️

 

 

 

 

 

 

Long Vaccine? Where are you reading this?

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

41 minutes ago, Costanza said:

Long Vaccine? Where are you reading this?

I think it was an American-based video the algorithm fired my way

 

some discussion about vaccine damage lasting longer than a certain time being defined as long vaccine - the symptoms seemed to vary from a sore arm that just didn’t get any better within the time period to debilitating neurological issues etc

 

sounded a bit like long covid at a high level

 

 

[Costanza]

8 hours ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

I think it was an American-based video the algorithm fired my way

 

some discussion about vaccine damage lasting longer than a certain time being defined as long vaccine - the symptoms seemed to vary from a sore arm that just didn’t get any better within the time period to debilitating neurological issues etc

 

sounded a bit like long covid at a high level

 

 

Found this article and it is a thing but way smaller than Long Covid it would appear and doesn't negate advice to take the vaccine when offered.

 

https://www.science.org/content/article/rare-link-between-coronavirus-vaccines-and-long-covid-illness-starts-gain-acceptance

 

[frankblack]

Went for my Vaccine appointment and got questioned before they said I didn't meet any of the classification for vulnerable at risk groups so was only getting the Flu Jab.

 

Looks like major cost cutting.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, frankblack said:

Went for my Vaccine appointment and got questioned before they said I didn't meet any of the classification for vulnerable at risk groups so was only getting the Flu Jab.

 

Looks like major cost cutting.

Did they ask your nationality?

[frankblack]

7 minutes ago, Black Swan said:

Did they ask your nationality?

 

I'm not sure where you are getting at, but no they didn't.  It was about medical conditions, living with vulnerable at-risk people.  I guess I could have lied about the latter and got it.

[The Mighty Thor]

22 hours ago, escobri said:

 Britain using vaccine passports to coerce people into taking the gene therapy shots

 

 

[escobri]

Some progress on this largely ignored subject.

 

[escobri]

2 hours ago, frankblack said:

Went for my Vaccine appointment and got questioned before they said I didn't meet any of the classification for vulnerable at risk groups so was only getting the Flu Jab.

 

Looks like major cost cutting.

Don't worry you'll get your jag when they change the criteria, lots of money still to be made out of these shots.

[Jeffros Furios]

3 minutes ago, escobri said:

Some progress on this largely ignored subject.

 

[Guest]

4 hours ago, frankblack said:

 

I'm not sure where you are getting at, but no they didn't.  It was about medical conditions, living with vulnerable at-risk people.  I guess I could have lied about the latter and got it.

Nothing sinister, just remember at my last jab they asked if I was Scottish or "other British". Sounds like they've dropped that now

[frankblack]

44 minutes ago, Black Swan said:

Nothing sinister, just remember at my last jab they asked if I was Scottish or "other British". Sounds like they've dropped that now

 

It was just a series of medical queries on you or people you live with to let them find a way to exclude you from the Covid jag.

Edited September 28, 2023 by frankblack

[Ulysses]

7 hours ago, frankblack said:

Went for my Vaccine appointment and got questioned before they said I didn't meet any of the classification for vulnerable at risk groups so was only getting the Flu Jab.

 

Looks like major cost cutting.

 

Got mine today.  Booster shots available in Ireland to anyone over 50.  People under that age have to meet "at risk" criteria, but they're reasonably broad.

 

Flu and Covid-19 shots, so I'll probably crash for a few hours tomorrow.

[davemclaren]

3 hours ago, Ulysses said:

 

Got mine today.  Booster shots available in Ireland to anyone over 50.  People under that age have to meet "at risk" criteria, but they're reasonably broad.

 

Flu and Covid-19 shots, so I'll probably crash for a few hours tomorrow.

A couple of whiskeys and you'll be fine. 

[Ulysses]

15 minutes ago, davemclaren said:

A couple of whiskeys and you'll be fine. 

 

Ah.  Friday.

[frankblack]

3 hours ago, Ulysses said:

 

Got mine today.  Booster shots available in Ireland to anyone over 50.  People under that age have to meet "at risk" criteria, but they're reasonably broad.

 

Flu and Covid-19 shots, so I'll probably crash for a few hours tomorrow.

 

Over 50s not automatically eligible here this time.  It was the case last December.

[Ulysses]

36 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

Over 50s not automatically eligible here this time.  It was the case last December.

 

I think the logic here is that over 50s should be given the option of an annual booster around the same time as the flu shot, while over 70s should have that with the added option of a booster in March-April.  That's what they said last spring, but the advice might change again.

[Dazo]

6 hours ago, frankblack said:

 

Over 50s not automatically eligible here this time.  It was the case last December.

I got offered it with my flu jab, declined this year. 

[davemclaren]

6 hours ago, Ulysses said:

 

Ah.  Friday.

😄

[frankblack]

4 hours ago, Dazo said:

I got offered it with my flu jab, declined this year. 

 

Did they check if you met the criteria then decline you or did you decline before they quizzed you?

[Nucky Thompson]

10 hours ago, Dazo said:

I got offered it with my flu jab, declined this year. 

I'm going to decline it this year too.

I'll still take the flu one though

 

My Mrs got the double shot last year and was floored for a fortnight, she thought she was going die and she's never ill.

 

She's vowed never to get any of them again

[Ulysses]

4 hours ago, Nucky Thompson said:

She's vowed never to get any of them again

 

Let us know how that goes.   

 

 

I got flu and Covid-19 shots yesterday, and so far except for a sore right arm (also  ) it's fine.

 

Edited September 29, 2023 by Ulysses

[Ulysses]

[Dazo]

17 hours ago, frankblack said:

 

Did they check if you met the criteria then decline you or did you decline before they quizzed you?

Nope just asked if I wanted it at the same time, I said no thanks. 

[cazzyy]

6 hours ago, Dazo said:

Nope just asked if I wanted it at the same time, I said no thanks. 

 

You would still be checked that you meet the criteria when you attend. When I was there most folk who thought they were getting both jabs only got the flu one.

[frankblack]

12 minutes ago, cazzyy said:

 

You would still be checked that you meet the criteria when you attend. When I was there most folk who thought they were getting both jabs only got the flu one.

Yep.  Last year over 50s were eligible.  Not this time due to cost cutting and gambling that there won't be repercussions for the NHS over winter.  It could backfire spectacularly with the NHS already on its knees.

[Ulysses]

7 hours ago, Dazo said:

Nope just asked if I wanted it at the same time, I said no thanks. 

 

I would have preferred to get one now and the other in a couple of weeks, but I took both because I thought there might be a delay in getting another appointment. 

[Ulysses]

24 minutes ago, frankblack said:

Yep.  Last year over 50s were eligible.  Not this time due to cost cutting and gambling that there won't be repercussions for the NHS over winter.  It could backfire spectacularly with the NHS already on its knees.

 

Are over 60s eligible? 

[milky_26]

10 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

Are over 60s eligible? 

i think it is over 65s

[milky_26]

14 hours ago, Ulysses said:

 

Let us know how that goes.   

 

 

I got flu and Covid-19 shots yesterday, and so far except for a sore right arm (also  ) it's fine.

 

that better not be your ahem

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

drinking arm

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

On 28/09/2023 at 21:39, Ulysses said:

 

Got mine today.  Booster shots available in Ireland to anyone over 50.  People under that age have to meet "at risk" criteria, but they're reasonably broad.

 

Flu and Covid-19 shots, so I'll probably crash for a few hours tomorrow.

probably just conspiracy theorists cherry-picking / making-up data but excess deaths particularly bad in ireland

 

Any acknowledgement of them from the more reliable sources have linked the winter ones to flu despite them occurring at all ages

 

unfortunately they continued throughout the summer but it doesn’t say if there’s been a summer flu too

 

some of the other European countries summer excess deaths have been linked to heatwaves but I’m assuming there’s not been too many of them in Ireland  🤷🏻‍♂️
 

 

 

[Gizmo]

[Malinga the Swinga]

On 30/09/2023 at 13:19, milky_26 said:

i think it is over 65s

It is, unless you meet other criteria. Personally I glad I was considered too young for something as that's a rarity these days.

[Ulysses]

On 01/10/2023 at 05:53, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

probably just conspiracy theorists cherry-picking / making-up data but excess deaths particularly bad in ireland

 

Any acknowledgement of them from the more reliable sources have linked the winter ones to flu despite them occurring at all ages

 

unfortunately they continued throughout the summer but it doesn’t say if there’s been a summer flu too

 

some of the other European countries summer excess deaths have been linked to heatwaves but I’m assuming there’s not been too many of them in Ireland  🤷🏻‍♂️
 

 

 

 

I'm not 100% sure what you mean, except of course for the last line.

 

Do you mean conspiracy theorists think Ireland had a particularly bad excess death rate during the pandemic? 

 

I read an answer to a Parliamentary Question which set out a few different sources that have published "official" excess mortality reports.  Aside from making me wonder if I'd be better off being an excess mortality statistic myself, the reports didn't say anything surprising.  But I don't know whether excess deaths is good news or bad news from a conspiracy theory point of view (probably depends on what oul' nonsense they're peddling at any given time).

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

3 hours ago, Ulysses said:

 

I'm not 100% sure what you mean, except of course for the last line.

 

Do you mean conspiracy theorists think Ireland had a particularly bad excess death rate during the pandemic? 

 

I read an answer to a Parliamentary Question which set out a few different sources that have published "official" excess mortality reports.  Aside from making me wonder if I'd be better off being an excess mortality statistic myself, the reports didn't say anything surprising.  But I don't know whether excess deaths is good news or bad news from a conspiracy theory point of view (probably depends on what oul' nonsense they're peddling at any given time).

excess deaths now and since the worst / ‘end’ of the pandemic

 

it was some guy on YouTube - looked plausible enough but could easily just be a conspiracy theorist making mischief and there’s no concern on current / recent excess deaths Ireland or otherwise although they did highlight Ireland as worse than most other European countries 

[Ulysses]

18 hours ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

excess deaths now and since the worst / ‘end’ of the pandemic

 

it was some guy on YouTube - looked plausible enough but could easily just be a conspiracy theorist making mischief and there’s no concern on current / recent excess deaths Ireland or otherwise although they did highlight Ireland as worse than most other European countries 

 

I suppose it does depend on one's théorie du complot du jour.  If your conspiracy theory is that it was all handled badly by the government, you need the rate of excess deaths to be high.  If your conspiracy theory is that it was all hokum, you need it to be nil or negative - but if it's high you just check conspiracybollox.com and get a cut-and-paste excuse and run with that as an explanation.

 

The problem for the Irish government (or the lesson to be learned, maybe) is that the figures manage to both vindicate and embarrass them.  On the one hand, the EU and the UN say that Ireland's excess mortality was lower than in most other countries.  But there were a couple of big peaks, and the blame for those might be laid at the door of the government.  But like everyone else, the Irish government was trying to balance public health protection against other factors like the economy and mental/social wellbeing.

 

As for Covid-19 booster shots?  IMO, and based just on the advice of a couple of medics I know, if you're 70 or older you need them regardless, and if you're under 50 you don't unless you have another condition that could compromise your health.  But it gets a bit blurry between those ages, so the Irish cut-off point might be a little too careful.

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

1 hour ago, Ulysses said:

 

I suppose it does depend on one's théorie du complot du jour.  If your conspiracy theory is that it was all handled badly by the government, you need the rate of excess deaths to be high.  If your conspiracy theory is that it was all hokum, you need it to be nil or negative - but if it's high you just check conspiracybollox.com and get a cut-and-paste excuse and run with that as an explanation.

 

The problem for the Irish government (or the lesson to be learned, maybe) is that the figures manage to both vindicate and embarrass them.  On the one hand, the EU and the UN say that Ireland's excess mortality was lower than in most other countries.  But there were a couple of big peaks, and the blame for those might be laid at the door of the government.  But like everyone else, the Irish government was trying to balance public health protection against other factors like the economy and mental/social wellbeing.

 

As for Covid-19 booster shots?  IMO, and based just on the advice of a couple of medics I know, if you're 70 or older you need them regardless, and if you're under 50 you don't unless you have another condition that could compromise your health.  But it gets a bit blurry between those ages, so the Irish cut-off point might be a little too careful.

if the conspiracy theory was it was all hokum then the subsequent excess deaths come from interventions to control the imaginary virus including vaccines

 

 

tbf to this particular conspiracy nut job he wasn’t actually saying that - he was saying there’s been a big bunch of non-Covid excess deaths since the ‘end’ of the pandemic and next to no-one particularly the media don’t seem that bothered to talk about it - Ireland came up as one of the worst for non-Covid excess deaths since the ‘end’ of the pandemic to present day

 

sounds like it’s not been news in Ireland either so almost certainly just made up / cherry-picked bunkum

 

 

 

 

[Footballfirst]

1 hour ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

tbf to this particular conspiracy nut job he wasn’t actually saying that - he was saying there’s been a big bunch of non-Covid excess deaths since the ‘end’ of the pandemic and next to no-one particularly the media don’t seem that bothered to talk about it - Ireland came up as one of the worst for non-Covid excess deaths since the ‘end’ of the pandemic to present day

I've had a look at the latest NRS death data for Scotland (stats available to mid September).  Scotland (and rUK) has experienced "excess deaths" compared to the five years average during 2023. It's roughly 6.5% (Eng & Wal) and 7.6% (Sco) above the average. Note that 2020 is excluded from the 5 year average due to extreme Covid numbers.

 

NRS reports on four main causes (Cancer, Dementia/Alzheimers, Circulatory, and Respiratory) plus "other causes" in addition to separate reporting for Covid. All the "cause" categories are showing an increase. Indeed 1,002 deaths due to Covid have been recorded this year. Covid deaths are included in the respiratory stats.  "Other Causes" are difficult to break down because of the range of issues involved, Liver disease, Kidney disease, Accidents, Poisons (including Drugs and Alcohol), MS, MND etc.

 

I think there is every possibility that the Pandemic resulted in late diagnosis of cancers, people being reluctant to seek help for heart conditions and possibly an increase in drug, alcohol and suicide deaths, although I can't find any stats to back that up.   The increase in waiting times in the NHS will also be a factor, with more people likely to die while waiting for treatment.

 

If there is any good news, the last couple of weeks data has seen death rates drop below the 5 year average for the corresponding weeks. 

Edited October 3, 2023 by Footballfirst