Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[vegas-voss]

16 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

Watching Neil Ferguson who is a major influencer of govt approach to this, on Andrew Marr show. 

 

His view seems to be next 7-10 days we peak and plateau. He also seems optimistic deaths could be kept below 20k and NHS can cope, 

 

He’ll know better than me, but maths didn’t seem quite right to me. 
 

Exit strategies are still being determined and think nothing has been ruled out. Think things are moving that quickly but definitely challenging. 

The guy seems to change his mind from one interview to the next.

[Seymour M Hersh]

16 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

Watching Neil Ferguson who is a major influencer of govt approach to this, on Andrew Marr show. 

 

His view seems to be next 7-10 days we peak and plateau. He also seems optimistic deaths could be kept below 20k and NHS can cope, 

 

He’ll know better than me, but maths didn’t seem quite right to me. 
 

Exit strategies are still being determined and think nothing has been ruled out. Think things are moving that quickly but definitely challenging. 

 

Started off saying 500k deaths then quickly went to 250k (we got the lockdown on the back of that report). A day or so ago he was saying 2/3rd who have dies allegedly of coronavirus (but may have been just with the virus) would have died this winter anyway. So although he should know more than you LBJ I'm not sure he does. The continuing worry for me is that he has the ear of PHE who are making policy (which of course is what we elect and pay MPs to do). 

[Victorian]

7 hours ago, davemclaren said:

The reality is that we will only beat this through herd immunity, either through a vaccine, which is a long way off, or a heavy attrition. 

 

Correct.    

 

The only option to get through the emergency plus the move towards returning to 'normal' involves herd immunity as a separate consequence.    There's no way around that.    

 

We're going to need some advances in the way it's treated to limit the attrition.    Repurposed drugs to treat people before they get to the IC stage.     If we have to face a situation where the current treatments are not advanced then the virus will keep on taking lives (in smaller numbers) for some time.

 

The acceptance of a slowly managed herd immunity is unavoidable.    The trouble is that the likely timetable also opens up the possibility of herd immunity diminishing as it's widening because there is no current confidence regarding how long immunity remains.

[buzz]

6 minutes ago, GBJambo said:

Yep when we are trying to get people to stay in! 
Totally irresponsible and will just make people do as they please as they’ll think well if the CMO is out and about ignoring her own instructions we might as well too! 

The hypocrisy of it is staggering. She’s been on TV every day telling us to stay in and only go out when it is absolutely necessary. We have tried to follow this advice to the letter and have put off going places we could probably legitimately go but she then does this.

[OBE]

24 minutes ago, GBJambo said:

Yep when we are trying to get people to stay in! 
Totally irresponsible and will just make people do as they please as they’ll think well if the CMO is out and about ignoring her own instructions we might as well too! 

 

2 wrongs and all that pish!

 

We have some exceptional brains among us but common sense fails to register with a few.

 

Oh Catherine, hang your head in shame hen.

Edited April 5, 2020 by Old Blue Eyes

[redjambo]

Just now, buzz said:

The hypocrisy of it is staggering. She’s been on TV every day telling us to stay in and only go out when it is absolutely necessary. We have tried to follow this advice to the letter and have put off going places we could probably legitimately go but she then does this.

 

It's a serious error of judgement, compounded by the fact that her decision was supported by a Scottish government spokesperson:

 

"Since the start of this epidemic, the CMO has been working seven days a week preparing Scotland’s response. She took the opportunity this weekend to check on a family home in Fife as she knows she will not be back again until the crisis is over. She stayed overnight before returning to Edinburgh. In line with guidance, she stayed within her own household group and observed social distancing with anyone she was in passing in the village.”

 

I would have expected either the Government or her to admit she made a mistake, and hope that this is still to be forthcoming, and also that Sturgeon has given her an absolute earful in private to remind her of her responsibilities.

 

[Seymour M Hersh]

I see Holyrood's Chief Medical Officeer, you know the one, a Gynaecologist with no scientific background, has been caught in a classic do as I say not as I do. Caught clapping the NHS on Thursday but yesterday in Earlsferry at the family summer home. Just heard I love myself Prof Leith attempting to defend her. 

Edited April 5, 2020 by Seymour M Hersh

[Toxteth O'Grady]

1 hour ago, buzz said:

How can she possibly think this is ok!

Unbelievable!

She's a hypocrite - This is the woman who comes on our TV several times a day telling us to stay at home., while she takes off to Fife for  weekend away with her family.

[manaliveits105]

36 minutes ago, invernessjt said:

A brilliant read. So many "experts" on here. 

 

and they continue unabated whilst knowing absolutely nothing more than anyone else 

[redjambo]

On reflection, I think that Catherine Calderwood will have no choice but to stand down. Now that this story is spreading around the media and households, she has effectively lost her position of authority to tell us what we should be doing during the crisis. In saying that, however, the virus crisis *is* an extraordinary situation and the powers that be might decide that changing the CMO in the middle of it is inadvisable - it all depends on how much this story spreads and is received.

[Regal Kingston]

Catherine Calderwood has no choice but to resign.
 

Her actions were dangerous to the public
 

A lot of people are going stir-crazy and seeing the person telling them to stay indoors going for a jolly to Fife isn’t going to do a lot for morale. 
 

What a shame as she was doing a great job up till now. 
 

 

Edited April 5, 2020 by Regal Kingston

[Toxteth O'Grady]

3 minutes ago, Regal Kingston said:

Catherine Calderwood has no choice but to resign.
 

Her actions were dangerous to the public
 

A lot of people are going stir-crazy and seeing the person telling them to stay indoors going for a jolly to Fife isn’t going to do a lot for morale. 
 

What a shame as she was doing a great job up till now. 
 

 

Her position is untenable

[Victorian]

Yeah there's no defence of it.   It's not even just a case of being a hypocrite.   It could have a practical effect.    She'll need to go but should remain until a proper hand over takes place.    

[OBE]

There'll have been an alleged smell of gas emitting from her Earlsferry pile...get out of jail card right there.

 

She may have been pissed off with her job, throws spanner in the works, kicks her own arse out the window, it's been known.

 

If not, cheerio, cheerio, cheerio!

Edited April 5, 2020 by Old Blue Eyes

[Fire_At_The_Disco]

Hugh Pennington should be brought in to replace Calderwood asap. He should have had this task in the first place as he is a world renowned bacteriologist. 

[redjambo]

1 minute ago, Tambo_The_Jambo said:

Hugh Pennington should be brought in to replace Calderwood asap. He should have had this task in the first place as he is a world renowned bacteriologist. 

 

He would certainly kick arses. However Covid-19 is a virus, not a bacteria. Also, the CMO's task is not to be an expert on the medical threat of the day but to be able to draw on the knowledge of experts and distil that into practical advice and action.

[Toxteth O'Grady]

7 minutes ago, Old Blue Eyes said:

There'll have been an alleged smell of gas emitting from her Earlsferry pile...get out of jail card right there.

 

She may have been pissed off with her job, throws spanner in the works, kicks her own arse out the window, it's been known.

 

If not, cheerio, cheerio, cheerio!

All the more reason for the whole family of 5 not to visit.

 

She has to go.

 

 

[OBE]

2 minutes ago, Toxteth O'Grady said:

All the more reason for the whole family of 5 not to visit.

 

She has to go.

 

 

 

Ok! Au revoir Catherine...next.

[redjambo]

16 minutes ago, Victorian said:

Yeah there's no defence of it.   It's not even just a case of being a hypocrite.   It could have a practical effect.    She'll need to go but should remain until a proper hand over takes place.    

 

Gregor Smith is the deputy CMO, as far as I can see.

 

I see from Catherine Calderwood's bio that she had a hand in introducing robotic prostatectomy surgery into Scotland, a procedure that successfully removed my cancer, so it is now with a bit of a heavy heart that I would advise her departure from her role.

 

 

[highlandjambo3]

1 hour ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

Not only this, but there also tends to be a common trait a lot of them exhibit as well.

 

And that is, only they know the truth, it's only them that are right, everyone else is a brainwashed MSM/Government trusting sheep, who believes any piece of nonsense they read, hear or get fed. 

 

Correct.....

 

I did read a little bit about the flat earth punters theory......I lasted about 2 minutes before I decided to stop reading and do something more practical....

 

Here is a couple of gems (if I remember correctly)

 

The perimeter of the earth is a continual wall of ice guarded by NASA employees

 

Every pilot in the world knows about flat earth but are sworn to secrecy.

 

Gravity can be explained by the constant movement of the earth in an upwards trajectory (I shit you not).... we are moving up at around 40 mph so, if you throw a ball up as high as you can it stays where it is and the earth eventually catches it as we are moving upwards all the time 🤣🤣🤣🤣 (something like that).......that’s about where I left it.  ROCKETS the lot of them.

[Spellczech]

8 hours ago, davemclaren said:

The reality is that we will only beat this through herd immunity, either through a vaccine, which is a long way off, or a heavy attrition. 

We don't know if herd immunity even exists! How long do antibodies give immunity for? Does it give immunity for all strains of the virus? What if someone get a much larger viral dose the second time round after a mild infection the first time?

[highlandjambo3]

14 hours ago, Dawnrazor said:

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/steel-wool-ignite-iphone-call/

If you get fine steel wool and rub it over the terminals of a square 9v battery (you know, the ones with both terminals close together) it will spark and burn.  Not rocket science but this is likely to be linked into a modern phones abilities to charge up without actually being plugged into anything, just laid on a compatible charging station.  I don’t know how this technology works but, no flat earth conspiracy theories here, I’d imagine most people won’t have steel wool for hair.

[Spellczech]

27 minutes ago, Tambo_The_Jambo said:

Hugh Pennington should be brought in to replace Calderwood asap. He should have had this task in the first place as he is a world renowned bacteriologist. 

This is a virus not a bacteria...

[DETTY29]

12 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Gregor Smith is the deputy CMO, as far as I can see.

 

I see from Catherine Calderwood's bio that she had a hand in introducing robotic prostatectomy surgery into Scotland, a procedure that successfully removed my cancer, so it is now with a bit of a heavy heart that I would advise her departure from her role.

 

 

This just shows what human nature and what selfishness and - or serious error of judgements due to pressure or selfishness and I'm above the ordinary person can do.

 

All the great achievements undone.

 

Yes, she has to resign.

[redjambo]

471 new deaths in Spain over the most recently-reported 24-hour period. A large and very welcome drop. It was 749 for the 24 hours before that.

 

https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_66_COVID-19.pdf

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

Edited April 5, 2020 by redjambo

[leginten]

43 minutes ago, Toxteth O'Grady said:

Her position is untenable

Agreed. Has to go. Flouting her own advice at a time of crisis. If she stays, it’s a sign that the government doesn’t really mean what it says.

 

[Cade]

Hancock admits they have no chance of hitting the 30,000 ventilators target.

New target is 18,000.

 

That's quite the climb-down.

[Toxteth O'Grady]

2 minutes ago, leginten said:

Agreed. Has to go. Flouting her own advice at a time of crisis. If she stays, it’s a sign that the government doesn’t really mean what it says.

 

If it isn't announced earlier then I think it will be in the FM's statement today.

[DETTY29]

1 minute ago, leginten said:

Agreed. Has to go. Flouting her own advice at a time of crisis. If she stays, it’s a sign that the government doesn’t really mean what it says.

 

And with predicted decent weather today, this is the worst time for her actions.  The whole family too.

 

If it had just been hubby doing a 30 minutes recky and seen wiping down all surfaces that say the postie could touch afterwards, may just have got away with it.

 

But even then folk were being told not to get in their car to go for their exercise within same town.

[Shanks said no]

from BBC

 

Scotland's chief medical officer has apologised "unreservedly" for visiting her second home in Fife during the coronavirus lockdown.

In a statement, Dr Catherine Calderwood said she would continue to focus on her job.

[Beni]

Staggering stupidity from Catherine Calderwood. It looks like the FM is going to stand by her, and try to ride it out, that is also a big mistake IMO.

[skinnybob72]

Is it not the case that if you end up on a ventilator your chances of recovery are between 20% and 50% at best? 
 

While ventilators improve your chances of recovering they are in no way a cure. 

[OBE]

1 minute ago, The Frenchman Returns said:

from BBC

 

Scotland's chief medical officer has apologised "unreservedly" for visiting her second home in Fife during the coronavirus lockdown.

In a statement, Dr Catherine Calderwood said she would continue to focus on her job.

 

Continue to focus, noooooo. Focus resumption after lapse...I'll accept.

[redjambo]

3 minutes ago, The Frenchman Returns said:

from BBC

 

Scotland's chief medical officer has apologised "unreservedly" for visiting her second home in Fife during the coronavirus lockdown.

In a statement, Dr Catherine Calderwood said she would continue to focus on her job.

 

In a normal situation, that might be ok. However, when she's getting up every day and telling us what to do then she can't be taken seriously any more, and so is unable to continue being the face of the medical side of the Government during the crisis. But what are they going to do? Have the Deputy CMO be present at the news briefings? It just won't wash, imo.

[Fire_At_The_Disco]

31 minutes ago, Spellczech said:

This is a virus not a bacteria...

I think you will find he is equally qualified in the virus field 

[Seymour M Hersh]

1 hour ago, Tambo_The_Jambo said:

Hugh Pennington should be brought in to replace Calderwood asap. He should have had this task in the first place as he is a world renowned bacteriologist. 

 

He's been critical of the SNP and Independence so it's unlike Sturgeon will appoint him. She'll probably for for Professor Me Me Me Leitch as he seems sympathetic to them. 

[Toxteth O'Grady]

Shes apologised but not resigning

Edited April 5, 2020 by Toxteth O'Grady

[Ritchez]

18 minutes ago, redjambo said:

OK, you've made your point, @Ritchez. We can all be wise after the fact. I personally don't think that it is constructive to shame particular posters who got it wrong about Covid-19, not unless you enjoy witch-hunts.

 

I think it is helpful. Those posters ignored the science, and likely still do. Their posts should be mocked at every opportunity.

 

Even a month back it was known with absolute certainty that this is much worse than the flu. There was no excuse for posting such dangerous nonsense.

 

Of course no one should take medical advice from an internet forum, but their posts simply highlighted the ignorance and downright stupidity of some people in our society.

 

If anyone is still in doubt, I recommend they watch the below video:

 

 

[Francis Albert]

17 hours ago, milky_26 said:

they have clarified it as a problem with their equipment, from bbc

 

The Trust said the decision was taken as a "result of a technical issue with our hospital's oxygen equipment".

Never mind. Any chance to bash the Government ...

[Seymour M Hersh]

2 minutes ago, Ritchez said:

 

I think it is helpful. Those posters ignored the science, and likely still do. Their posts should be mocked at every opportunity.

 

Even a month back it was known with absolute certainty that this is much worse than the flu. There was no excuse for posting such dangerous nonsense.

 

Of course no one should take medical advice from an internet forum, but their posts simply highlighted the ignorance and downright stupidity of some people in our society.

 

If anyone is still in doubt, I recommend they watch the below video:

 

 

 

So one is Labour and one is Conservative. 

[DETTY29]

Hancock threatening a stay indoors policy if people don't change their ways due to 3000 folk in a park in London yesterday.

 

Time for 2km home radius and Scotland's CMO to resign. 

 

Of course in London it is very feasible that thousands of people could be 2km from a park.

Edited April 5, 2020 by DETTY29

[leginten]

19 minutes ago, fancy a brew said:

Staggering stupidity from Catherine Calderwood. It looks like the FM is going to stand by her, and try to ride it out, that is also a big mistake IMO.

Very big mistake. In the current circumstances, Calderwood was caught doing absolutely the worst thing she could have done. Had she been photographed by journalists in her back garden in Edinburgh riding her dug while injecting herself with heroin, it would have been less harmful. Nothing she says from now on will carry any weight or have any credibility.

[redjambo]

1 minute ago, DETTY29 said:

Hancock threatening a stay indoors policy if people don't change their ways due to 3000 folk in a park in London yesterday.

 

Time for 2km home radius and Scotland's CMO to resign. 

 

To be fair, in a city, there could easily be many thousands of people living within a 2km radius. It is not surprising that many would go to the park to exercise. To stay there and sunbathe or picnic is a different kettle of fish. I think we should remain concentrating on fining those who flout the guidelines/laws.

[redjambo]

27 minutes ago, fancy a brew said:

Staggering stupidity from Catherine Calderwood. It looks like the FM is going to stand by her, and try to ride it out, that is also a big mistake IMO.

 

Fair point about the FM. I'm usually quite supportive of her, but she's showing weakness here.

[Victorian]

2 minutes ago, leginten said:

Very big mistake. In the current circumstances, Calderwood was caught doing absolutely the worst thing she could have done. Had she been photographed by journalists in her back garden in Edinburgh riding her dug while injecting herself with heroin, it would have been less harmful. Nothing she says from now on will carry any weight or have any credibility.

 

Yep.   In this unique context it can be viewed as very troublesome.    Even as a peripheral consequence,   the media attention on her can be damaging to the efforts.    She'll need to be replaced without doubt.

[DETTY29]

10 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

To be fair, in a city, there could easily be many thousands of people living within a 2km radius. It is not surprising that many would go to the park to exercise. To stay there and sunbathe or picnic is a different kettle of fish. I think we should remain concentrating on fining those who flout the guidelines/laws.

Yep.

 

I had edited.

[Francis Albert]

On 04/04/2020 at 10:30, Seymour M Hersh said:

I see the scientist whose report on CoVid19 was mostly responsible for the "lockdown" policy is now saying 2/3rds of the deaths attributed to CoVid would have happened in any case. I know I've mentioned Sweden before but I am really interested to see what happens there given they are the only European country not pursuing some kind of lockdown policy.  For one thing they are being 100% transparent with their logging of data. They have a website that gives you real-time information on deaths and new infections. Also they break the deaths down into from CoVid and with CoVid.  

 

This is from an article in the Telegraph.

 

The former state epidemiologist, Prof Emeritus Johan Giesecke, is in agreement with Mr Tegnell, stating recently in an article for the daily newspaper Svenska Dagbladet: "The lack of reliable knowledge explains why countries choose to do things differently: nobody knows what really works, and they choose measures either on the basis of shaky data or for political reasons. 

"All models require that you enter numeric values for different parameters - values that we often miss and must estimate or guess."

 

Time will tell I suppose but the very least our Government could do is break down the figures in a transparent and honest manner.

Agree with all of that. I think the distinction between dying "of Coronovirus" and "with Coronovirus" is important. We won't know for a long time if ever the true numbers Coronavirus kills … one measure will be the number of deaths during the epidemic vs the underlying "normal" rates of death. The numbers are I suspect so far too small to show up against normal variability in rates of death over periods of time. 

Another point is that epidemiologists advice and numbers of deaths are not the only factors in Government and political decisions. The Swedes are explicitly saying they are having regard to the impact on the economy. This will outrage some ("money over lives") but the impact of the epidemic and the reaction to it will have major potentially enormous long term impacts. Long term mass unemployment and collapse of worldwide GDPs will have long term impact particularly among poorer people and countries which could dwarf the short term impact of Coronavirus.

Let's judge the Swedes in a decade or so.

 

[Mikey1874]

They keep talking on tv about nice weather. 

 

Different country.

Edited April 5, 2020 by Mikey1874

[Mikey1874]

21 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

Hancock threatening a stay indoors policy if people don't change their ways due to 3000 folk in a park in London yesterday.

 

Time for 2km home radius and Scotland's CMO to resign. 

 

Of course in London it is very feasible that thousands of people could be 2km from a park.

 

The powers are devolved. So England could do that while Scotland continues to allow exercise. 

[Mikey1874]

56 minutes ago, redjambo said:

OK, you've made your point, @Ritchez. We can all be wise after the fact. I personally don't think that it is constructive to shame particular posters who got it wrong about Covid-19, not unless you enjoy witch-hunts.

 

The key thing is it's the Government who may have got it wrong.