Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[Victorian]

8 hours ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Perhaps 1% is the maximum number it gets to?? Most people don't pass it on to anyone. There seems to be an assumption that everyone is susceptible although that will likely not be the case. It affects and infects the most vulnerable people in "super spreader " locations like hospitals,  care homes. It doesn't simply sweep through communities infecting everyone in it's way. Most folk can go about their daily business with very little chance of catching it. If, however,  you're having house parties then again that risks becoming a super spreader event. The question that has to be asked yet is never discussed is : where are people catching it? Also, how accurate are the PCR tests that are simply not designed for mass testing?. The lateral flow tests only yielded a handful of positive cases from the lorry drivers tested at Dover. The NHS is claiming to be "swamped" yet the Nightingale hospitals are being emptied of equipment and will be mothballed. At £220m a pop, it seems to have been a flagrant waste of taxpayers money.

 

There's scepticism and there's utter delusion.  All the best to you.

[DETTY29]

8 hours ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Perhaps 1% is the maximum number it gets to?? Most people don't pass it on to anyone. There seems to be an assumption that everyone is susceptible although that will likely not be the case. It affects and infects the most vulnerable people in "super spreader " locations like hospitals,  care homes. It doesn't simply sweep through communities infecting everyone in it's way. Most folk can go about their daily business with very little chance of catching it. If, however,  you're having house parties then again that risks becoming a super spreader event. The question that has to be asked yet is never discussed is : where are people catching it? Also, how accurate are the PCR tests that are simply not designed for mass testing?. The lateral flow tests only yielded a handful of positive cases from the lorry drivers tested at Dover. The NHS is claiming to be "swamped" yet the Nightingale hospitals are being emptied of equipment and will be mothballed. At £220m a pop, it seems to have been a flagrant waste of taxpayers money.

I'm sure I read that only c.50 (new) staff had been recruited for the Nightingales and 200 people treated across England in them.  In hindsight I suppose it's an expensive mistake, but we were in real panic mode at the time that we may end up like say Italy who in some areas were heading towards a binary age limit triage on who got Covid care.

 

It was on 5L yesterday that they are pointless now because NHS England, who are already 10s of  thousands nurses short wouldn't be able to recruit the bodies required to support them, nor transfer staff from existing hospitals either becayse as well as general nursing shortages, they have so many nurses off work self isolating.

 

ICU beds aren't at full capacity (due to restrictions surely) but in many hospital areas due to staffing issues, there is no other option but to cancel non urgent operations for the next few months.

 

In Scotland Jason Leitch says we can easily increase ICU capacity, which is true but he doesn't seem to have answered, or been asked, if we can staff.  Reports are that his on the ground clinicians are worried of being over whelmed soon.

 

As a PS, I've wondered how long a Covid patient stays in ICU.  It was mentioned a pnuemonia patient will normally be in and out of ICU in one way or another in 5-8 days, with Covid it should be expected to be 3-5 weeks as being the norm.  I don't think the PM was in that long but his was more precautionary than medical necessity if I recall.  Of course he is the PM and was the correct course of action.

 

PPS - does appear at least NHS Scotland has found a use for the Louisa Jordan, but you could argue as it's not for Covid purposes, then we just needed at least 1 new building whether it be a fully functional hospital or combibed hospital, training centre the LJ is beibg used for.

[Enzo Chiefo]

1 hour ago, Victorian said:

 

There's scepticism and there's utter delusion.  All the best to you.

OK so I threw 1% in there as an outlier but it's no more fanciful than basing modelling around 80% being susceptible.  Quite clearly they're not. 

[Tommy Walker]

12 hours ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Firstly, there is a cure, the human immune system. Only 0.1% die from Covid, so presumably the remainder are cured. Those that fall seriously ill have an overreaction from their own immune system, not from the virus itself.  The majority of the population will suffer no symptoms whatsoever, indeed lots of people will not even be susceptible in the first place, due to natural immunity. Regarding the vulnerable,  those that fall in to the priority vaccination categories would, I suppose,  be the "most vulnerable ".  The Doctor presumably would advise them to either rest up for a few days, prescribe medication or send them to hospital,  as they do with every other illness. Forgive me, but you do realise we're not dealing with the bubonic plague here??

This 7b times

 

Stay safe

 

TW

[Weakened Offender]

1 minute ago, Tommy Walker said:

This 7b times

 

Stay safe

 

TW

 

😁😁😁

[Tommy Walker]

11 hours ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

So, to put it into perspective, around the same number die in Scotland each year from Sepsis, again provoked by a cytokine storm, as Covid. Should we lock people up in case they cut their finger? How about icy pavements? Should the elderly be advised to shield during winter in case they fall, end up n hospital and develop pneumonia? Why has Covid caused a widespread suspension of logical and critical thinking? Why have we become risk averse all of a sudden?

This

[Enzo Chiefo]

1 hour ago, DETTY29 said:

I'm sure I read that only c.50 (new) staff had been recruited for the Nightingales and 200 people treated across England in them.  In hindsight I suppose it's an expensive mistake, but we were in real panic mode at the time that we may end up like say Italy who in some areas were heading towards a binary age limit triage on who got Covid care.

 

It was on 5L yesterday that they are pointless now because NHS England, who are already 10s of  thousands nurses short wouldn't be able to recruit the bodies required to support them, nor transfer staff from existing hospitals either becayse as well as general nursing shortages, they have so many nurses off work self isolating.

 

ICU beds aren't at full capacity (due to restrictions surely) but in many hospital areas due to staffing issues, there is no other option but to cancel non urgent operations for the next few months.

 

In Scotland Jason Leitch says we can easily increase ICU capacity, which is true but he doesn't seem to have answered, or been asked, if we can staff.  Reports are that his on the ground clinicians are worried of being over whelmed soon.

 

As a PS, I've wondered how long a Covid patient stays in ICU.  It was mentioned a pnuemonia patient will normally be in and out of ICU in one way or another in 5-8 days, with Covid it should be expected to be 3-5 weeks as being the norm.  I don't think the PM was in that long but his was more precautionary than medical necessity if I recall.  Of course he is the PM and was the correct course of action.

 

PPS - does appear at least NHS Scotland has found a use for the Louisa Jordan, but you could argue as it's not for Covid purposes, then we just needed at least 1 new building whether it be a fully functional hospital or combibed hospital, training centre the LJ is beibg used for.

Excellent post Detty. I think when Jason Leitch makes claims such as the capacity up-scale, he needs to be pushed for detail about staffing issues etc. I don't know why the Army couldn't be brought in to run the Nightingale hospitals for Covid patients??

[Tommy Walker]

 

The World Health Organization released a guidance memo on December 14th, warning that high cycle thresholds on PCR tests will result in false positives.

While this information is accurate, it has also been available for months, so we must ask: why are they reporting it now? Is it to make it appear the vaccine works?

https://off-guardian.org/2020/12/18/who-finally-admits-pcr-tests-create-false-positives/

 

WHO Chief Scientist Warns "No Evidence COVID Vaccine Prevents Viral Transmission"

Once again, the WHO has stepped in to offer some confusing comments about the coronavirus vaccine, warning that there is "no evidence to be confident shots prevent transmission" and that people who receive the vaccine should continue wearing masks and following all social distancing and travel guidelines.

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/who-chief-scientist-warns-no-evidence-covid-vaccine-prevents-viral-transmission

[Weakened Offender]

8 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

I don't know why the Army couldn't be brought in to run the Nightingale hospitals for Covid patients??

 

You're trolling this thread something chronic now. It's pretty disgusting that no action has been taken. 

[Justin Z]

1 hour ago, Victorian said:

There's scepticism and there's utter delusion.  All the best to you.

 

Indeed. Just unreal, as even oxygen is starting to run out in hospitals in England. Actual doctors with actual medical training sounding the alarm, as opposed to bams spouting nonsense conspiracy theories on the internet. As this surge drives up excess mortality from other causes, the anti-science, anti-reality babbling goes on.

 

Completely avoidable if not for these selfish arseholes.

[kila]

I don’t think the army could match the level of expertise and care of designated ICU nurses and doctors. It isn’t just a case of getting some medics in and plugging the patient into a ventilator then leaving them to it. 
 

The army coming in would be the ultimate admission of failure by the government. Dwindling nurse numbers, no pay rise, visa delays, wanting rid of the EU ones etc. 

[FWJ]

11 minutes ago, Justin Z said:

 

Indeed. Just unreal, as even oxygen is starting to run out in hospitals in England. Actual doctors with actual medical training sounding the alarm, as opposed to bams spouting nonsense conspiracy theories on the internet. As this surge drives up excess mortality from other causes, the anti-science, anti-reality babbling goes on.

 

Completely avoidable if not for these selfish arseholes.

No, no Justin.

These professionals - the ones who spent years at university training - are just ‘dullards’ engaged in ‘scaremongering propaganda’ who ‘[know] very little it would seem’.

 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

1 minute ago, FWJ said:

No, no Justin.

These professionals - the ones who spent years at university training - are just ‘dullards’ engaged in ‘scaremongering propaganda’ who ‘[know] very little it would seem’.

 

 

Well of course they know feck all, it's Karen on facebook who has all the answers.

[Justin Z]

5 minutes ago, FWJ said:

No, no Justin.

These professionals - the ones who spent years at university training - are just ‘dullards’ engaged in ‘scaremongering propaganda’ who ‘[know] very little it would seem’.

 

 

2 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

Well of course they know feck all, it's Karen on facebook who has all the answers.

 

[Dirty Deeds]

9 hours ago, CJGJ said:

Should people/businesses be able to buy the vaccine for themselves/employees ?

 

I get with limited supplies there must be some sort of order of priority but if the vaccines become more widely available should people be able to buy it saving money, time and effort by the NHS ?

 

On the whole it does not sit right with me knocking on its head the whole idea of fairness but like private medicine as it stands fairness is just an illusion

It's a good question but I think it would be fundamentally unfair to allow "queue jumping" right now but once there is a surplus of vaccines,  then a private market will inevitably start.  

 

Will this thing become like an annual flu jab with vulnerable people getting it on the NHS while everyone pays if they can afford and want to.

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

This argument just goes round and round. Most people will recover from Covid without a problem. But hospitals cannot cope with the admissions, hence the need for restrictions.

[Taffin]

1 minute ago, Dirty Deeds said:

It's a good question but I think it would be fundamentally unfair to allow "queue jumping" right now but once there is a surplus of vaccines,  then a private market will inevitably start.  

 

Will this thing become like an annual flu jab with vulnerable people getting it on the NHS while everyone pays if they can afford and want to.

 

That's effectively what's happening now anyway, it's distributed by means rather than need, but just at a state level. I'd be against it but I don't fundamentally see much difference in applying that down to a personal level.

[Justin Z]

1 minute ago, Taffin said:

That's effectively what's happening now anyway, it's distributed by means rather than need, but just at a state level. I'd be against it but I don't fundamentally see much difference in applying that down to a personal level.

 

Fundamentally not, sure, but as a practical matter and even a utilitarian one? I'd think there would be a lot of difference then.

[Nucky Thompson]

2 minutes ago, Dusk_Till_Dawn said:

 But hospitals cannot cope with the admissions, hence the need for restrictions.

That's true, but what about 2018 when the hospitals were struggling before covid was even heard of?

After covid is done, are they going to keep restrictions every Winter?

[Taffin]

I'm still pretty active in terms of going out, doing things, working, going to the gym etc and know a lot of people who are the same. I still only know (and I use that term loosely) 2 people who have had it. What are people doing that's seeing so many people firstly catch and those then hospitalised by it must surely have been being super cautious yet still got it?

 

That's in no way meant to be read like, well it's their own fault. I'm just genuinely amazed by how many people are catching it. I appreciate comparing it to myself is circumstantial/anecdotal but I'm not sure how much more socialising/remaining active could be done than I'm doing.

[FWJ]

6 minutes ago, Dusk_Till_Dawn said:

This argument just goes round and round. Most people will recover from Covid without a problem. But hospitals cannot cope with the admissions, hence the need for restrictions.

In. A. Nutshell.

[Taffin]

2 minutes ago, Justin Z said:

 

Fundamentally not, sure, but as a practical matter and even a utilitarian one? I'd think there would be a lot of difference then.

 

Of course. We shouldn't be doing it for a number of reasons but I don't think "queue jumping" by wealth could be a valid complaint, given its how it's being done anyway. 

 

Pie in the sky dreamland to do it by need globally, I know.

[Justin Z]

3 minutes ago, Taffin said:

Of course. We shouldn't be doing it for a number of reasons but I don't think "queue jumping" by wealth could be a valid complaint, given its how it's being done anyway. 

 

Pie in the sky dreamland to do it by need globally, I know.

 

😩

[Victorian]

9 minutes ago, Dusk_Till_Dawn said:

This argument just goes round and round. Most people will recover from Covid without a problem. But hospitals cannot cope with the admissions, hence the need for restrictions.

 

Very well put.  The argument regarding risks and rates of deaths,  etc is a redundant argument.  It is and always has been a matter of scale and flow.  

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

55 minutes ago, Justin Z said:

 

Indeed. Just unreal, as even oxygen is starting to run out in hospitals in England. Actual doctors with actual medical training sounding the alarm, as opposed to bams spouting nonsense conspiracy theories on the internet. As this surge drives up excess mortality from other causes, the anti-science, anti-reality babbling goes on.

 

Completely avoidable if not for these selfish arseholes.

 

sounds bad how’s it looking compared to previous years?

 

see the actual medical experts with actual medical training (and the media) - they’ve been caught out more than once using rubbish data to ‘inform’ the masses - maybe this has now lead to some scepticism from those receiving subsequent messages or no everything coming from the professionals can be taken as 100% now ?

[ri Alban]

15 hours ago, JamesM48 said:

Completely agree Jonesy . Eyes been opened the last few days being off it and then coming back for a look . Same spin from the same culprits 

You're self awareness does not seem to be working. So I'll help you out. You James are one of the same culprits. 

[Shanks said no]

Latest vaccine figures,

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccination-doses-per-capita?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=latest..latest

 

 

 

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

5 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

Very well put.  The argument regarding risks and rates of deaths,  etc is a redundant argument.  It is and always has been a matter of scale and flow.  

Which is why they need to prioritise the most important things - the NHS, schools, social services.

 

Not opening pubs and letting people mix at Christmas ffs. But sadly this government’s priority is pleasing the Daily Mail

[Justin Z]

5 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

see the actual medical experts with actual medical training (and the media) - they’ve been caught out more than once using rubbish data to ‘inform’ the masses - maybe this has now lead to some scepticism from those receiving subsequent messages or no everything coming from the professionals can be taken as 100% now ?

 

See that's how science works—nothing is 100%, especially in cutting edge areas of new research. Medical experts will be wrong. Data will be faulty. This is a given, this is expected, and it's why the work to better understand new things doesn't just come to a halt. Regardless, actual expertise informed by actual training gives them much better odds of getting it right than any Tom, Dick or Harry flinging shit at the wall, hoping some of it sticks.

[Dirty Deeds]

24 minutes ago, Taffin said:

I'm still pretty active in terms of going out, doing things, working, going to the gym etc and know a lot of people who are the same. I still only know (and I use that term loosely) 2 people who have had it. What are people doing that's seeing so many people firstly catch and those then hospitalised by it must surely have been being super cautious yet still got it?

 

That's in no way meant to be read like, well it's their own fault. I'm just genuinely amazed by how many people are catching it. I appreciate comparing it to myself is circumstantial/anecdotal but I'm not sure how much more socialising/remaining active could be done than I'm doing.

I'd love to know  are there stats anywhere?

 

My unscientific assumptions are that it must be getting spread in schools where the pupils are asymptomatic but are infecting family members.

 

Plus food retail workers and any other occupation which means considerable public contact.

 

Anyone got any facts to confirm / repudiate?

[Neil Dongcaster]

The average age is currently 63 in the ward my wife works in.

Just seen this -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55471282

 

Quite a worrying precedent. 

[Maroon Sailor]

1 hour ago, FWJ said:

No, no Justin.

These professionals - the ones who spent years at university training - are just ‘dullards’ engaged in ‘scaremongering propaganda’ who ‘[know] very little it would seem’.

 

 

Harold Shipman went to University and set up his own surgery.

 

Just a coincidence all these people died who attended his practice I suppose.

 

How can anyone doubt anybody in the medical profession with a degree in medicine ?

[Maroon Sailor]

DP

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Maroon Sailor

[FWJ]

1 minute ago, Maroon Sailor said:

 

Harold Shipman went to University and set up his own surgery.

 

Just a coincidence all these people died who attended his practice I suppose.

 

How can anyone doubt anybody in the medical profession with a degree in medicine ?

I’m looking for the “not sure if serious” thingy.

[Weakened Offender]

3 minutes ago, Maroon Sailor said:

 

Harold Shipman went to University and set up his own surgery.

 

Just a coincidence all these people died who attended his practice I suppose.

 

How can anyone doubt anybody in the medical profession with a degree in medicine ?

 

****ing hell 😁

[Maroon Sailor]

3 minutes ago, FWJ said:

I’m looking for the “not sure if serious” thingy.

 

Look for it all you want - I wouldn't judge people purely because they have been to Uni therefore they are experts and hang on their every word.

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Maroon Sailor

[Maroon Sailor]

Just now, Weakened Offender said:

 

****ing hell 😁

 

The only place you will be able to

[Jambo-Jimbo]

3 minutes ago, Neil Dongcaster said:

The average age is currently 63 in the ward my wife works in.

Just seen this -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55471282

 

Quite a worrying precedent. 

 

Average age of 63, so that'll probably include patients in their 30's & 40's at one end of the scale and 80's & 90's at the other end.

[DETTY29]

52 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

That's true, but what about 2018 when the hospitals were struggling before covid was even heard of?

After covid is done, are they going to keep restrictions every Winter?

Because we have vaccines (edit - long established  vaccine programmes) for any other high risk infection out there?

 

Unless I'm missing something that seems very fundemental.

Edited December 29, 2020 by DETTY29

[Neil Dongcaster]

Double post.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Neil Dongcaster

[DETTY29]

3 hours ago, Footballfirst said:

A fair sized outbreak in Wigtownshire

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-south-scotland-55467491

 

The new B.1.1.7 variant has been identified as being part of the outbreak in Wigtownshire, which grew from 64 cases on Boxing Day to 142.

 

Of the 154 tests carried out in Stranraer on Sunday, 55 were positive - the biggest increase in Covid cases seen in one area of Dumfries and Galloway since the start of the pandemic.

I was speaking to someone from Stranraer today, and local rumour it's come from a Santa's Grotto.

[Weakened Offender]

6 minutes ago, Maroon Sailor said:

 

Look for it all you want - I wouldn't judge people purely because they have been to Uni therefore they are experts and hang on their every word.

 

 

A key reason why we're in this mess. 

[Maroon Sailor]

2 minutes ago, Weakened Offender said:

 

A key reason why we're in this mess. 

 

The key reason is mixed messages from too many experts on how to control the virus.

[kila]

15 minutes ago, Maroon Sailor said:

Look for it all you want - I wouldn't judge people purely because they have been to Uni therefore they are experts and hang on their every word.

 

How does one become an expert in medicine without academia? It's part of the route, as experience from putting principles into practise is needed.

 

Do you trust business leaders and politicians who have capitalist interests more than NHS doctors who just literally want to save lives and stop a pile up?

 

[Maroon Sailor]

2 minutes ago, kila said:

 

How does one become an expert in medicine without academia? It's part of the route, as experience from putting principles into practise is needed.

 

Do you trust business leaders and politicians who have capitalist interests more than NHS doctors who just literally want to save lives and stop a pile up?

 

 

Becoming an expert through academia is not my point.

 

These people still have things to learn as this virus is showing us.

 

It's new to them, not one of them has dealt with anything on this scale before but we somehow still put our trust in them.

[Governor Tarkin]

8 minutes ago, kila said:

 

Do you trust business leaders and politicians who have capitalist interests more than NHS doctors who just literally want to save lives and stop a pile up?

 

 

Economic interests and saving lives/stopping a pile-up are far from mutually exclusive.

[Weakened Offender]

19 minutes ago, Maroon Sailor said:

 

The key reason is mixed messages from too many experts on how to control the virus.

 

Says the guy who won't listen to experts because one was once a mass murderer. 👍

[Maroon Sailor]

Just now, Weakened Offender said:

 

Says the guy who won't listen to experts because one was once a mass murderer. 👍

 

You're a dick do you know that ?

 

What am I saying? Of course you do - you know everything

[Governor Tarkin]

Harold Shipman offed less oldies than whoever had the the bright idea to seed the care homes with covid infected residents.

[Nucky Thompson]

33 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

Average age of 63, so that'll probably include patients in their 30's & 40's at one end of the scale and 80's & 90's at the other end.

There's 60 people with covid in ICU in the whole of Scotland, so I'm guessing each hospital might have 5 cases. 

It won't take much to bring the average age down to 63 on one ward in Scotland