Jambo-Jimbo Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 26 minutes ago, Taffin said: Do many African countries have Pfizer/Moderna vaccines on purchase? Probably not, if South Africa can't afford it then almost nobody else will either, which is why the AZ/Oxford vaccine is so important. Quite a few African countries are being supplied with the Russian & Chinese vaccines as are several South American countries as well, Argentina being the latest South American country to take the 'Sputnik V' vaccine and the Chinese vaccine is being made in Egypt for the African market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jambo-Jimbo Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, milky_26 said: The Modena one only needs to be stored at minus 20 compared to the minus 70 for the Pfizer one. Minus 20 is achievable in standard freezers 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWJ Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, jonesy said: They've ballsed it up from the beginning, and have continued to do so ever since. I have complete faith in every elected leader's ability to continue ballsing it up for as long as they are given, what has until now been, carte blanche to do whatever they want in the name of 'saving the NHS'/'saving lives'/'stopping the spread'. If current numbers are to be believed then how can people be supportive of ongoing measures? They're clearly not working. The only options left are to get more extreme with restrictions and deal with the fall-out of that later (that carpet is already looking decidedly bulging) or accept that (as we have done with other pathogens), sadly, more people are going to die/suffer and move on to 'save' the rest of us while following sensible precautions such as distancing. Short term the former will have more support from those whose daily lives are quite comfortable sitting at home on furlough/Zoom-based jobs, while the latter is likely to have more positive outcomes for a wider range of people. Not quite sure what this bit means. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankblack Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, jonesy said: Sorry, badly worded but has slightly too much to drink already today to be arsed editing it I think I meant we haven't prevented a majority of the population from going about their daily lives in a sensible manner because some people are at risk from other deadly viruses before. But then I could just be smashing my nose off the keyboard and hoping I make as much sense as anyone else on this thread. I'd argue that the governments have tip-toed around hard enforcement of existing rules for fear of offending people. However, its pretty clear that some sections of society are taking the piss and their recklessness is bringing on more restrictions to the rest of us. We need to find ways to start opening up again within the UK but not externally because we can't afford to wait for the vaccination programme to complete. We also need to put restrictions on foreign travel with hard enforcement such as quarantine hotels to ensure travellers do self-isolate. The airline industry will no doubt object to that but this South African strain didn't arrive here on its own. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JudyJudyJudy Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 hours ago, The Real Maroonblood said: Glad you enjoyed your Xmas. I’m trying to remember what a hangover is. Thanks. Yes it was a memorable day for all the family i feel. Just think all the stress of the last year etc made us just chill out. Yes the hangover from hell . Well i did deck two bottles of white wine and some cans of lager... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Footballfirst Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Scotland's population by age group in 1,000s. Should give an indication of the number of doses that need to be acquired before any particular age group gets theirs. Ages 2020 ———— ———— 0-4 266 5-9 298 10-14 298 15-19 279 20-24 341 25-29 378 30-34 374 35-39 355 40-44 324 45-49 350 50-54 393 55-59 400 60-64 353 65-69 301 70-74 285 75-79 199 80-84 144 85-89 85 90-94 34 95-99 8 100 & over 1 All ages 5,465 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weakened Offender Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, frankblack said: However, its pretty clear that some sections of society are taking the piss and their recklessness is bringing on more restrictions to the rest of us. We need to find ways to start opening up again within the UK but not externally because we can't afford to wait for the vaccination programme to complete. We also need to put restrictions on foreign travel with hard enforcement such as quarantine hotels to ensure travellers do self-isolate. The airline industry will no doubt object to that but this South African strain didn't arrive here on its own. Pandering to the airline industry at the start of the pandemic and the holiday industry in the early summer were huge mistakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neil Dongcaster Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 (edited) My other half is an ICU nurse. She said although it’s too early to tell and could be coincidence, the current median age of the people in ICU with the new strain is 17 years younger than at any time this year. She seems quite worried by it tbh. Edited December 28, 2020 by Neil Dongcaster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Real Maroonblood Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Weakened Offender said: Pandering to the airline industry at the start of the pandemic and the holiday industry in the early summer were huge mistakes. It was like this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankblack Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, Weakened Offender said: Pandering to the airline industry at the start of the pandemic and the holiday industry in the early summer were huge mistakes. I said way back in March/April that I could not see how we could open up air travel yet it was allowed to happen, and in fact we didn't shut it down so kept importing the problem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jambo-Jimbo Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, Neil Dongcaster said: My other half is an ICU nurse. She said although it’s too early to tell and could be coincidence, the current median age of the people in ICU with the new strain is 17 years younger than at any time this year. She seems quite worried by it tbh. I've heard this reported on the TV, that it's affecting much younger people this new strain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taffin Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Neil Dongcaster said: My other half is an ICU nurse. She said although it’s too early to tell and could be coincidence, the current median age of the people in ICU with the new strain is 17 years younger than at any time this year. She seems quite worried by it tbh. What's the median age? 70ish? Edited December 28, 2020 by Taffin The previous one I mean, so c.50s now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JudyJudyJudy Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, Taffin said: What's the median age? 70ish? LOL well said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kila Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, JamesM48 said: LOL well said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JudyJudyJudy Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, jonesy said: Not doubting this, Neil, but I've also heard from a nurse at ERI that they are still pretty quiet re Covid. Im trying to not post as much now. It was nice to have a few days break from it. Its the same arguments every single day on this. Then when you say a fact which you know is based on truth you are usually shot down. A relative of mine also works at the ERI and she was saying its very quiet. I await being shot down. This thread is the pits at times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kila Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, JamesM48 said: Im trying to not post as much now. It was nice to have a few days break from it. Its the same arguments every single day on this. Then when you say a fact which you know is based on truth you are usually shot down. A relative of mine also works at the ERI and she was saying its very quiet. I await being shot down. This thread is the pits at times. ERI is a big hospital... Are they saying ICU is quiet or other wards/services? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OBE Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, JamesM48 said: Im trying to not post as much now. It was nice to have a few days break from it. Its the same arguments every single day on this. Then when you say a fact which you know is based on truth you are usually shot down. A relative of mine also works at the ERI and she was saying its very quiet. I await being shot down. This thread is the pits at times. Yes, it's the same arguments and you're currently waiting to be downed...again. Thread is the pits, all of the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheOak88 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 hour ago, frankblack said: I think they have an absolute maximum of February/March to continue the current approach. Money is going to start running out and furlough will end. It won't just be a recession they will face but a depression. Businesses will go to the wall, left right and centre and our high streets will be filled with empty shops with no companies willing to invest in a country that is anti-business. Think furlough is covered till end of April 2021. So, in that regard the money is not going to run out, we will just keep borrowing more if needed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nucky Thompson Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 28 minutes ago, Taffin said: What's the median age? 70ish? Over 85's are by far the biggest age group Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taffin Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said: Over 85's are by far the biggest age group Yeh, I thought they would be. Median is an interesting measurement for it though so I'm interested as to what that was and now is. I'm guessing it's considerably lower than the mean. Maybe 🤷🏻♂️ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JudyJudyJudy Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 26 minutes ago, OBE said: Yes, it's the same arguments and you're currently waiting to be downed...again. Thread is the pits, all of the time. Tell me about it. I’ll be limiting my time on this from now on !!! Queue the 👍👍👍👍 emojis lol but seriously it’s never ending doom / gloom / arguments / ridicule / bla bla bla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JudyJudyJudy Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 41 minutes ago, jonesy said: Yeah, I understand the feeling. I drifted on here as I'm trying to study and needed a wee break. Same arguments time and time again, and I know I'm as guilty of this as anyone else, but the fact that there are still widely disparate views on how to deal with a virus (and not just on here) would indicate that the dismissive tone used by those who find criticism of the government's narrative uncomfortable (the usual what would you do retort) is little more than ostrich imitation. Completely agree Jonesy . Eyes been opened the last few days being off it and then coming back for a look . Same spin from the same culprits Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Francis Albert Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 9 hours ago, Governor Tarkin said: The BBC is ****ing doom TV this morning. Outdid itself tonight. Hospitals everywhere close to be overwhelmed based largely on anecdotal evifence from.a few hospitals and NHS districts. No mention of the Nightingale hospitals being mobilised or it even being considered. No mention of vaccination progress and our near world leading performance there. Then onto Brexit with looming staff shortages in care homes. No questioning of care home owners of why they don't pay staff more. I wouldn t do the job for what they pay and neither will.many Brits so the result is they rely on cheap labour from.the poorer parts of Europe. Then firms complaining about new paperwork requirements with the EU from New Year, again no questioning or challenge as to scale or real impact. Then we are on to environmental matters and the threat to species... somewhere or other. Switched over st that point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kila Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, JamesM48 said: Completely agree Jonesy . Eyes been opened the last few days being off it and then coming back for a look . Same spin from the same culprits What have your eyes been opened to? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankblack Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 (edited) 50 minutes ago, TheOak88 said: Think furlough is covered till end of April 2021. So, in that regard the money is not going to run out, we will just keep borrowing more if needed. I would imagine that the current end date for Furlough is a hard end date. If hospitality businesses in places like Edinburgh are kept on Furlough till April I suspect that a significant number of owners will close the businesses by February. Businesses still have to pay other bills and contractual obligations even with no income. The governments need to have a Plan B as lockdown needs to end I would say by the end of January. Their approach to managing the pandemic has been a complete cluster**** and they need to put some competent business and scientific people in charge instead of the politicians and scientists that have made such a mess until now. Edited December 28, 2020 by frankblack Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weakened Offender Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 hour ago, jonesy said: Wasn't pandering - lots of livelihoods (and, tragically for one of my neighbours, lives) at stake when you shut down entire industries. Testing/Quarantining the way to go, but they can't be arsed working out the logistics, it seems. Stopping people entering the country until the testing/quarantining of visitors was up and running would have been a good starting point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enzo Chiefo Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 3 hours ago, frankblack said: I think they have an absolute maximum of February/March to continue the current approach. Money is going to start running out and furlough will end. It won't just be a recession they will face but a depression. Businesses will go to the wall, left right and centre and our high streets will be filled with empty shops with no companies willing to invest in a country that is anti-business. Yes, once the vulnerable are vaccinated and the "protect the NHS" mantra is no longer sustainable, it will be back to normal imo. There would be no justification for any measures that restrict the rest of the population nor daily updates or even asymptomatic testing. It may circulate like many other viruses but most people will not be susceptible nor affected if they do catch it. Those who need to, will see their doctor as you do with every other symptomatic illness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWJ Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said: Yes, once the vulnerable are vaccinated and the "protect the NHS" mantra is no longer sustainable, it will be back to normal imo. There would be no justification for any measures that restrict the rest of the population nor daily updates or even asymptomatic testing. It may circulate like many other viruses but most people will not be susceptible nor affected if they do catch it. Those who need to, will see their doctor as you do with every other symptomatic illness. A couple of question if I may: Who are the ‘vulnerable’ - what age, occupation, pre-existing condition/s are you including? What will their GP do? There’s no cure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enzo Chiefo Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, FWJ said: A couple of question if I may: Who are the ‘vulnerable’ - what age, occupation, pre-existing condition/s are you including? What will their GP do? There’s no cure. Firstly, there is a cure, the human immune system. Only 0.1% die from Covid, so presumably the remainder are cured. Those that fall seriously ill have an overreaction from their own immune system, not from the virus itself. The majority of the population will suffer no symptoms whatsoever, indeed lots of people will not even be susceptible in the first place, due to natural immunity. Regarding the vulnerable, those that fall in to the priority vaccination categories would, I suppose, be the "most vulnerable ". The Doctor presumably would advise them to either rest up for a few days, prescribe medication or send them to hospital, as they do with every other illness. Forgive me, but you do realise we're not dealing with the bubonic plague here?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jambos are go! Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Heard on one of the TV paper reviews that 1 in 20 of the over 80s will die if they catch Covid. For the under 50s this figure falls to 1 in 47000. Other than either Sky news or BBC newspaper review I don't the source. Seems to suggest that vaccinating based on how elderly you are is sound. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Real Maroonblood Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, jambos are go! said: Heard on one of the TV paper reviews that 1 in 20 of the over 80s will die if they catch Covid. For the under 50s this figure falls to 1 in 47000. Other than either Sky news or BBC newspaper review I don't the source. Seems to suggest that vaccinating based on how elderly you are is sound. So the 50’s- 80’s will be okay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victorian Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, FWJ said: A couple of question if I may: Who are the ‘vulnerable’ - what age, occupation, pre-existing condition/s are you including? What will their GP do? There’s no cure. Actually this may well change in the future. They're trialling a therapeutic to be given to people post-infection. An antibody injection. It looks like it will be used to fill in the gaps of people who have not acquired any protection from a vaccination, people who did not get a vaccination or anyone else who, for whatever reason, contract a serious case of covid. Also to be used as an emergency intervention to suppress localised outbreaks. It will be a hospital based treatment. Regarding the previous point you replied to, the 'vulnerable' continues to be a badly defined, imagined group of people. There is a section of the so-called vulnerable group that is quite easy to define (old & certain co-morbidities). There is another section much harder to define (middle aged groups & certain sub-optimal general health condition, etc). Vaccinate the vulnerable and immediately open up wont happen. The vaccines will not confer immune protection for every person. A percentage of vaccinated people will begin to come into contact with others and some will inevitably become infected, despite having had the vaccine. It will take time to transition between the the vaccine phase and virtual normality. People have talked about vaccine passports or proof of vaccine. I think it needs to go further. Ideally there should be a national antibody testing phase to follow up on vaccinations. A vaccine passport is pointless without the vaccine having immunised a person. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enzo Chiefo Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said: I agree that once people are not dying and hospitals are not full of thousands of Covid patients then we can start to meaningfully open up society. As long as we know the older groups in society are vaccinated then we can get going again. There will need to be a slight bit of caution at first bit hopefully it’s just a matter of getting enough supply. Yes, I maybe gave the impression of an overnight return to normal but, yes, with a slight bit of caution, I agree, we should be looking to open society and life, back up again. There may even be a 7am announcement to the Stock Exchange about the AZ vaccine tomorrow. Who knows? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enzo Chiefo Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Brian Dundas said: I’d ****ing love both the announcement tomorrow morning and an overnight return to normal. Yes, fingers crossed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanks said no Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Quote from Israel, today Number of vaccines so far: Health Minister Yuli (Yoel) Edelstein: "Beginning of the second week of the" Give Shoulder "vaccination campaign - we are approaching 100,000 vaccinations a day . So far we have vaccinated 379,000 people. This is thanks to the amazing work of the Ministry of Health, HMOs, hospitals and more." A. And most of all - thanks to you, the citizens of Israel, that you get involved and get vaccinated. We will continue like this, and we will also increase the pace even further. " The target appears to be completely vaccinate the population of 9 million before the end of March 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWJ Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 21 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said: Firstly, there is a cure, the human immune system. Only 0.1% die from Covid, so presumably the remainder are cured. Those that fall seriously ill have an overreaction from their own immune system, not from the virus itself. The majority of the population will suffer no symptoms whatsoever, indeed lots of people will not even be susceptible in the first place, due to natural immunity. Regarding the vulnerable, those that fall in to the priority vaccination categories would, I suppose, be the "most vulnerable ". The Doctor presumably would advise them to either rest up for a few days, prescribe medication or send them to hospital, as they do with every other illness. Forgive me, but you do realise we're not dealing with the bubonic plague here?? 0.1% ? 1 in a 1000. So, since almost 4,500 people in Scotland have died from Covid then I suppose we must have just about all have had it? The fact it’s a cytokine storm that’s associated with most mortality, especially in younger age groups is neither here nor there, it’s triggered by the infection. Anyway. Glad to see your faith in the medical profession has returned. Bit of a turnaround from how you were describing them (Scottish Academy of Medical Royal Colleges and Faculties) yesterday. And yes, I do know we’re not dealing with bubonic plague. At least plague can (usually) be cured by antibiotics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jambo-Jimbo Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 19 minutes ago, jonnothejambo said: BBC Headlines around 4pm stated the highest number of daily cases and when they came to discussing it they then stated that the figures may have been affected by additional cases being added over Christmas. Of course the high figures are a concern but the headline was more sensational, for want of a better word, than the actual report a few minutes later. As per the usual, it's always the same where the headlines whilst being factually correct doesn't tell the whole story, and when you hear the full story the headlines can then seem a bit OTT & sensationalist. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jambo-Jimbo Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, The Frenchman Returns said: Quote from Israel, today Number of vaccines so far: Health Minister Yuli (Yoel) Edelstein: "Beginning of the second week of the" Give Shoulder "vaccination campaign - we are approaching 100,000 vaccinations a day . So far we have vaccinated 379,000 people. This is thanks to the amazing work of the Ministry of Health, HMOs, hospitals and more." A. And most of all - thanks to you, the citizens of Israel, that you get involved and get vaccinated. We will continue like this, and we will also increase the pace even further. " The target appears to be completely vaccinate the population of 9 million before the end of March 2021 And they aim to increase that to 150,000 per day within the next 6 weeks. https://www.jpost.com/health-science/edelstein-millions-more-covid-19-vaccines-en-route-to-israel-653519 Edited December 28, 2020 by Jambo-Jimbo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taffin Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, FWJ said: 0.1% ? 1 in a 1000. So, since almost 4,500 people in Scotland have died from Covid then I suppose we must have just about all have had it? The fact it’s a cytokine storm that’s associated with most mortality, especially in younger age groups is neither here nor there, it’s triggered by the infection. Anyway. Glad to see your faith in the medical profession has returned. Bit of a turnaround from how you were describing them (Scottish Academy of Medical Royal Colleges and Faculties) yesterday. And yes, I do know we’re not dealing with bubonic plague. At least plague can (usually) be cured by antibiotics. Or lots haven't had it...but I'm guessing if they haven't had it then they also haven't died from it so it's a bit of misleading way of representing the data to say 0.1% die. I've no idea if it's actually 0.1% as was claimed if you include those who haven't tested positive, but everyone who hasn't died from Covid, is a pretty big number, to use some Trumpian parlance 😂 Edited December 28, 2020 by Taffin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enzo Chiefo Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 32 minutes ago, FWJ said: 0.1% ? 1 in a 1000. So, since almost 4,500 people in Scotland have died from Covid then I suppose we must have just about all have had it? The fact it’s a cytokine storm that’s associated with most mortality, especially in younger age groups is neither here nor there, it’s triggered by the infection. Anyway. Glad to see your faith in the medical profession has returned. Bit of a turnaround from how you were describing them (Scottish Academy of Medical Royal Colleges and Faculties) yesterday. And yes, I do know we’re not dealing with bubonic plague. At least plague can (usually) be cured by antibiotics. So, to put it into perspective, around the same number die in Scotland each year from Sepsis, again provoked by a cytokine storm, as Covid. Should we lock people up in case they cut their finger? How about icy pavements? Should the elderly be advised to shield during winter in case they fall, end up n hospital and develop pneumonia? Why has Covid caused a widespread suspension of logical and critical thinking? Why have we become risk averse all of a sudden? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanks Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just want to say 4,400 people have sadly died in Scotland with a positive test of covid - not from covid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victorian Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said: So, to put it into perspective, around the same number die in Scotland each year from Sepsis, again provoked by a cytokine storm, as Covid. Should we lock people up in case they cut their finger? How about icy pavements? Should the elderly be advised to shield during winter in case they fall, end up n hospital and develop pneumonia? Why has Covid caused a widespread suspension of logical and critical thinking? Why have we become risk averse all of a sudden? Sepsis and falling on an icy pavement don't spread from person to person in an epidemic. There's only ever been about 1% to 2% of the population infected with CV at any given point in time and there's about 70,000 deaths nationwide. Many people have avoided being added to the 70,000 figure because they were successfully treated in a hospital that had a space for them and the time & resource to treat them. Allowing that 1% to 2% rate to become 3%, 5%, 8% not only means a faster rate of unavoidable fatalities, it eventually means a number of avoidable fatalities, when the resources to treat people can no longer meet the flow rate of demand. The only mitigation is to suppress the flow at around current levels. Risk averse? Yes. The risk is obvious and always has been. How do you go about suppression? That's much more debatable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton51 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Hopefully the Oxford vaccine gets approved soon and we can get mass rollout sorted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enzo Chiefo Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 55 minutes ago, Victorian said: Sepsis and falling on an icy pavement don't spread from person to person in an epidemic. There's only ever been about 1% to 2% of the population infected with CV at any given point in time and there's about 70,000 deaths nationwide. Many people have avoided being added to the 70,000 figure because they were successfully treated in a hospital that had a space for them and the time & resource to treat them. Allowing that 1% to 2% rate to become 3%, 5%, 8% not only means a faster rate of unavoidable fatalities, it eventually means a number of avoidable fatalities, when the resources to treat people can no longer meet the flow rate of demand. The only mitigation is to suppress the flow at around current levels. Risk averse? Yes. The risk is obvious and always has been. How do you go about suppression? That's much more debatable. Perhaps 1% is the maximum number it gets to?? Most people don't pass it on to anyone. There seems to be an assumption that everyone is susceptible although that will likely not be the case. It affects and infects the most vulnerable people in "super spreader " locations like hospitals, care homes. It doesn't simply sweep through communities infecting everyone in it's way. Most folk can go about their daily business with very little chance of catching it. If, however, you're having house parties then again that risks becoming a super spreader event. The question that has to be asked yet is never discussed is : where are people catching it? Also, how accurate are the PCR tests that are simply not designed for mass testing?. The lateral flow tests only yielded a handful of positive cases from the lorry drivers tested at Dover. The NHS is claiming to be "swamped" yet the Nightingale hospitals are being emptied of equipment and will be mothballed. At £220m a pop, it seems to have been a flagrant waste of taxpayers money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Francis Albert Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 3 hours ago, The Real Maroonblood said: So the 50’s- 80’s will be okay. And 5% of even the over 80s will be OK unless they have major underlying conditions from which they may have died quite soon anyway. I am not sure about prioritising the soon to be dead myself. Although I am in one of the higher priority groups by age. Shouldn't life expectancy be a factor too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Costanza Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 45 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said: Perhaps 1% is the maximum number it gets to?? Most people don't pass it on to anyone. There seems to be an assumption that everyone is susceptible although that will likely not be the case. It affects and infects the most vulnerable people in "super spreader " locations like hospitals, care homes. It doesn't simply sweep through communities infecting everyone in it's way. Most folk can go about their daily business with very little chance of catching it. If, however, you're having house parties then again that risks becoming a super spreader event. The question that has to be asked yet is never discussed is : where are people catching it? Also, how accurate are the PCR tests that are simply not designed for mass testing?. The lateral flow tests only yielded a handful of positive cases from the lorry drivers tested at Dover. The NHS is claiming to be "swamped" yet the Nightingale hospitals are being emptied of equipment and will be mothballed. At £220m a pop, it seems to have been a flagrant waste of taxpayers money. Not sure this frontline doctor shares your ambivalence/doubts on the current impact of covid on the NHS. NHS England are reporting more Covid patients now than at the previous peak in April, and the situation in London looks pretty grim based on the report here: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/england-hospitals-covid-patients-london-b1779676.html Clearly this isn't the same in every area of the country, but it's not hard to see why some are very worried about the next few weeks with the increase in cases, especially with this new variant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJGJ Posted December 29, 2020 Author Share Posted December 29, 2020 Should people/businesses be able to buy the vaccine for themselves/employees ? I get with limited supplies there must be some sort of order of priority but if the vaccines become more widely available should people be able to buy it saving money, time and effort by the NHS ? On the whole it does not sit right with me knocking on its head the whole idea of fairness but like private medicine as it stands fairness is just an illusion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Boy Named Crow Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 (edited) On 27/12/2020 at 09:53, jonesy said: After 9 months of governments not having the testicular fortitude to go all in on an Antipodean style lockdown, and instead chipping away at morale with their boom and bust strategy, it's now the public that has no stomach for any further measures. They should admit they've failed, do an opt-out funded shielding for anyone over 60 and/or with underlying health conditions - assessed and ordained by the underworked call centre operatives that are 2020's GPs - and allow the rest of us to get on with things while the vaccine is rolled out. No more tiers, fearmongering, furloughing of viable workers or destruction of viable businesses. It's not too late to get all "antipodean" on it's ass, the problem is the delay might mean it will take a longer lockdown than if they'd done it properly back at the start. To get active case numbers down to bugger all would allow better contact tracing of those cases that do crop up and businesses could get going again with people in pubs, shopping etc. Borrowing a phrase from GK Chesterton, lockdown in the UK wasn't tried and found wanting, it was found difficult and not tried. Edited December 29, 2020 by A Boy Named Crow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJGJ Posted December 29, 2020 Author Share Posted December 29, 2020 Spain is to set up a registry of people who refuse to be vaccinated against coronavirus and share it with other European Union nations, the health minister has said. Salvador Illa said the list would not be made accessible to the public or to employers. He said the way to defeat the virus was "to vaccinate all of us - the more the better". Spain has been one of the countries in Europe worst affected by the virus. It is currently rolling out the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine which was approved for EU member states last week. What are the Christmas restrictions around Europe? Covid vaccine approved for use in EU's 27 states In an interview with La Sexta television on Monday, Mr Illa emphasised that vaccination would not be mandatory. "What will be done is a registry, which will be shared with our European partners... of those people who have been offered it and have simply rejected it," he said. "It is not a document which will be made public and it will be done with the utmost respect for data protection." He added: "People who are offered a therapy that they refuse for any reason, it will be noted in the register... that there is no error in the system, not to have given this person the possibility of being vaccinated." According to a recent poll, the number of Spanish citizens who have said they will not take the vaccine has fallen to 28% from 47% in November. media captionHow will the new Pfizer vaccine work? In other comments on Monday, Mr Illa said people would be contacted by regional authorities when it was their turn to be inoculated. "People who decide not to get vaccinated, which we think is a mistake, are within their rights," he told reporters. "We are going to try to solve doubts. Getting vaccinated saves lives, it is the way out of this pandemic." The number of people who have died from Covid-19 in Spain rose above the 50,000 mark on Monday. The country has registered more than 1.8 million infections during the pandemic. Spain is under a nationwide curfew, between 23:00 and 06:00, until early May. In many places, people are only allowed out in that period to go to work, buy medicine, or to care for elderly people or children. Regional leaders can modify curfew times and can also close regional borders for travel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Footballfirst Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 A fair sized outbreak in Wigtownshire https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-south-scotland-55467491 The new B.1.1.7 variant has been identified as being part of the outbreak in Wigtownshire, which grew from 64 cases on Boxing Day to 142. Of the 154 tests carried out in Stranraer on Sunday, 55 were positive - the biggest increase in Covid cases seen in one area of Dumfries and Galloway since the start of the pandemic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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