Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[graygo]

Dominic Cummings to leave by end of the year. Wonder who will decide policy after that.

[Nucky Thompson]

6 minutes ago, graygo said:

Dominic Cummings to leave by end of the year. Wonder who will decide policy after that.

I might send my CV to Bojo 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

44 minutes ago, graygo said:

Dominic Cummings to leave by end of the year. Wonder who will decide policy after that.

 

JiH has been quite quiet this week, maybe he's busy elsewhere, just saying.

 

P.S. Just ordered a full hazmat suit, getting in before the rush. 😀

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

there’s a school of thought (probably from a yeti spotter) that plenty of these positives will be in respect of the virus caught months ago and no longer actually infectious

 

when everyone hiding under their beds (more justifiably) in March and following the rules the younger well they didn’t so much

 

yet they didn’t catch it months ago they somehow evaded this highly contagious pathogen .... until now according to their positive test

 

 

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

5 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Remember, it is very unreliable.

 

yes - massive decisions being made on as you said “shoogly” data and I think that’s being very generous

 

 

[Don Dan]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8946861/Covid-kills-FIVE-revellers-went-lockdown-street-party.html

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

today’s anecdotal evidence - two previously careful followers of the rules one walking today the other driving stops and picks the other up to save them walking for 5 minutes (in the sun)

 

the least necessary care share ever

 

krankie’s lost the dressing room - seeing it every day - folk just not buying it anymore

 

i don’t agree with it but I can see it happening as I’m sure we all can

 

restriction fatigue is a real thing

 

[Don Dan]

1 hour ago, graygo said:

Dominic Cummings to leave by end of the year. Wonder who will decide policy after that.

He has gone now! 
Dominic Cummings has left Downing Street this evening for good, a government source has told Sky News.

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

2 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8946861/Covid-kills-FIVE-revellers-went-lockdown-street-party.html

 

that’s another tragedy - not really a shock is it tho - covid is one of a number of very dangerous respiratory diseases well capable of killing anyone in particular those not in the best of general health

 

 

[Nucky Thompson]

7 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8946861/Covid-kills-FIVE-revellers-went-lockdown-street-party.html

And they wonder why BAME communities are more severely effected.

Mass funerals, mass weddings and multi generational homes must have a huge bearing on infections 

[Don Dan]

9 minutes ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

 

that’s another tragedy - not really a shock is it tho - covid is one of a number of very dangerous respiratory diseases well capable of killing anyone in particular those not in the best of general health

 

 

The main point in this instance is they didn’t follow the advice and paid the ultimate penalty. 
Covid19 is very infectious and especially dangerous to those with certain health conditions. it’s more infectious than most other respiratory viruses and at this point in time much harder to treat especially in the way it attacks the body. 
Until we get a vaccine and better treatment drugs everyone needs to be extra vigilant not just because they might get it but the might infect someone who could go on to die. 

[Don Dan]

6 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

And they wonder why BAME communities are more severely effected.

Mass funerals, mass weddings and multi generational homes must have a huge bearing on infections 

I’ve just read that Mo Salah has tested positive after attending his brothers wedding in Egypt.

[graygo]

20 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

I’ve just read that Mo Salah has tested positive after attending his brothers wedding in Egypt.

He's bound to have some kind of chemical in him that might help.

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

12 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

The main point in this instance is they didn’t follow the advice and paid the ultimate penalty. 
Covid19 is very infectious and especially dangerous to those with certain health conditions. it’s more infectious than most other respiratory viruses and at this point in time much harder to treat especially in the way it attacks the body. 
Until we get a vaccine and better treatment drugs everyone needs to be extra vigilant not just because they might get it but the might infect someone who could go on to die. 

 

i agree with what you are saying broadly regarding following the rules but people don’t always make the right choices and unfortunately there can be adverse results particularly tragic in this case

 

its not specific to covid tho if people were making the right choices the nhs would be a lot more empty than they normally are due to flawed human beings not looking after themselves like they text book should - hospitals choc-full of ill people with preventable disease - will probably end similar myself at some point

 

 

plenty experts would take issue with you statements about its infectiousness and “much harder to treat” statements - as a non-expert I couldn’t say other than given the numbers of other respiratory deaths every single year they must be quite prevalent and can’t be particularly easy to treat either 

 

 

 

 

 

[Brighton Jambo]

We are getting nowhere with these restrictions.  Cases aren’t rising but they are not dropping at all either.

 

Over here in the west we have been in tighter restrictions for longer than most and still our numbers are higher.

 

It is becoming absolutely shambolic.  Either impose tier 4 or impose a full lockdown because this current approach is 100% not working and there is no indication it will work either.

 

an absolute joke.  

[GinRummy]

45 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

And they wonder why BAME communities are more severely effected.

Mass funerals, mass weddings and multi generational homes must have a huge bearing on infections 

Was it not that the rates of death per affected person were worse in BAME communities? Maybe higher viral load due to being in contact for longer. 

Edited November 13, 2020 by GinRummy

[CavySlaveJambo]

1 hour ago, jonesy said:

Remember, it is very unreliable.

2 positive and 2 negative - if the chance of a negative test is 1 in 3, that means the chance of two false negatives are only 1 in 9. 

 

6 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

We are getting nowhere with these restrictions.  Cases aren’t rising but they are not dropping at all either.

A tiered system has plenty of evidence behind never working. if it did you would have seen local authorities in England dropping back out of tier 2 at the very least.  If I recall correctly, none ever did.   

 

[Brighton Jambo]

5 minutes ago, CavySlaveJambo said:

2 positive and 2 negative - if the chance of a negative test is 1 in 3, that means the chance of two false negatives are only 1 in 9. 

 

A tiered system has plenty of evidence behind never working. if it did you would have seen local authorities in England dropping back out of tier 2 at the very least.  If I recall correctly, none ever did.   

 

Yeah, it’s just beyond frustrating that we persevere with something that clearly isn’t working.  
 

now they are saying that it will need to be tier 4 for a few weeks to let the restrictions take effect.  They should have done this weeks ago and we would have accepted it.  Now after weeks and weeks in existing restrictions it’s difficult to take.

 

As I said before it’s a total shambles and they have made such a mess of it that almost everyone I know is just giving up following the restrictions.  

[Ray Gin]

3 hours ago, graygo said:

Dominic Cummings to leave by end of the year. Wonder who will decide policy after that.

 

Cummings going. Trump going. Vaccine on the horizon. Things finally looking up folks!!

[Ray Gin]

1 hour ago, Brighton Jambo said:

We are getting nowhere with these restrictions.  Cases aren’t rising but they are not dropping at all either.

 

Over here in the west we have been in tighter restrictions for longer than most and still our numbers are higher.

 

It is becoming absolutely shambolic.  Either impose tier 4 or impose a full lockdown because this current approach is 100% not working and there is no indication it will work either.

 

an absolute joke.  

 

You're pining for a tougher lockdown now?

 

 

[Ray Gin]

1 hour ago, CavySlaveJambo said:

A tiered system has plenty of evidence behind never working. if it did you would have seen local authorities in England dropping back out of tier 2 at the very least.  If I recall correctly, none ever did.   

 

 

Tell that to the areas currently in levels 1 and 2. I'm sure they feel a tier system is working just fine. No way should they suffer they suffer the same restrictions as Glasgow/Lanarkshire.

 

[GinRummy]

1 minute ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Tell that to the areas currently in levels 1 and 2. I'm sure they feel a tier system is working just fine. No way should they suffer they suffer the same restrictions as Glasgow/Lanarkshire.

 

Why not answer his point about tier systems not working. Of course areas in tiers that allow more freedoms won’t want to give the system up. What does that prove. 

[Don Dan]

31 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Cummings going. Trump going. Vaccine on the horizon. Things finally looking up folks!!

Brexit cancelled! If only.

[Brighton Jambo]

25 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

You're pining for a tougher lockdown now?

 

 

Just do what needs done and should have been done weeks ago.  We might then be looking forward to coming out of restrictions rather than now looking like tightening them weeks after they were introduced.

 

if Glasgow has been put into Aberdeen type lockdown weeks ago or even tier 4 from the beginning then we wouldn’t be in this situation. 
 

it has been a complete cluster****

[3fingersreid]

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10160288560359128&id=513634127
 

 

i received this from my mate , not sure how good these guys are but worth a listen , it’s an interesting point that is made at the end . ( I really hope it plays 🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻) 

[Nucky Thompson]

24 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

Just do what needs done and should have been done weeks ago.  We might then be looking forward to coming out of restrictions rather than now looking like tightening them weeks after they were introduced.

 

if Glasgow has been put into Aberdeen type lockdown weeks ago or even tier 4 from the beginning then we wouldn’t be in this situation. 
 

it has been a complete cluster****

I don't think it would make much of a difference.

OK, you go in hard and get the virus down a lot quicker, but as soon as you pop your head out again, it pounces 

[DETTY29]

2 hours ago, Boy Daniel said:

The main point in this instance is they didn’t follow the advice and paid the ultimate penalty. 
Covid19 is very infectious and especially dangerous to those with certain health conditions. it’s more infectious than most other respiratory viruses and at this point in time much harder to treat especially in the way it attacks the body. 
Until we get a vaccine and better treatment drugs everyone needs to be extra vigilant not just because they might get it but the might infect someone who could go on to die. 

Popped up on my Twitter that there was a wedding in the states with c.50at it, well over the state limit.

 

From that wedding they traced infections 100 miles and 200 miles away, 177 known positive cases, 7 hospitalizations and 7 deaths.

 

Of course, no-one from the wedding ended up in hospital or died.

 

I do get an arguement as to how they can tell it is from that wedding and 100, 200 miles in America is minuscule, but it shows you what can happen.

 

[GinRummy]

4 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

Popped up on my Twitter that there was a wedding in the states with c.50at it, well over the state limit.

 

From that wedding they traced infections 100 miles and 200 miles away, 177 known positive cases, 7 hospitalizations and 7 deaths.

 

Of course, no-one from the wedding ended up in hospital or died.

 

I do get an arguement as to how they can tell it is from that wedding and 100, 200 miles in America is minuscule, but it shows you what can happen.

 

Makes me wonder how all theses parties in university accommodation are going to help spread the virus, or already have. 
 

Unless I’m being silly, seven hospitalisations and seven deaths seems really unlikely. 

Edited November 13, 2020 by GinRummy

[DETTY29]

6 hours ago, Boy Daniel said:

Don’t know about the app. She was ask last night to go in to the Red Zone which I believe is specific for Covid patients. 

I'm sure Leitch said yesterday when discussing teachers and when to switch on and off and mentioned hospital staff.  If you are fully ppe'd up on ward, no need for app, but as soon as you leave, e.g. go to lunch  you switch back on.

 

 

[DETTY29]

4 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

Makes me wonder how all theses parties in university accommodation are going to help spread the virus, or already have. 
 

Unless I’m being silly, seven hospitalisations and seven deaths seems really unlikely. 

The hospital to deaths ratio did seem odd.

[Don Dan]

35 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

I'm sure Leitch said yesterday when discussing teachers and when to switch on and off and mentioned hospital staff.  If you are fully ppe'd up on ward, no need for app, but as soon as you leave, e.g. go to lunch  you switch back on.

 

 

👍

[stevie1874]

2 hours ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Cummings going. Trump going. Vaccine on the horizon. Things finally looking up folks!!

Only Sturgeon left 👍

[Nucky Thompson]

38 minutes ago, stevie1874 said:

Only Sturgeon left 👍

She wouldn't be easy to get rid off.

Maybe drag her to London, then hang, draw and quarter and stick her head on Berwick's walls 

[Enzo Chiefo]

5 hours ago, Boy Daniel said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8946861/Covid-kills-FIVE-revellers-went-lockdown-street-party.html

600k people die every year in the UK, 115k from respiratory viruses. This time of the year is always the worst and hospital/ICU wards are always at breaking point. Nobody knows how many of the reported deaths are "covid" or "non Covid" or whether it even matters.  Every death is sad, not just "covid" ones. I'm at the point where I don't trust any figures, graphs, stats or headlines that come from government, scientists or from media outlets.

[Enzo Chiefo]

54 minutes ago, stevie1874 said:

Only Sturgeon left 👍

Yip, just the one democracy denier to go👍

[Enzo Chiefo]

1 hour ago, jonesy said:

The quandary I have is whether or not to throw in my lot with the conspiracy theorists who reckon this is all a giant control experiment or to continue deriding Sturgeon et al for being completely clueless. Decisions, decisions...

There are sensible sceptics and conspiracy theorists. Although Covid has definitely been used as a trojan horse to force through alcohol bans and green policy agendas, you and I probably fall into the former category.

[Don Dan]

16 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

600k people die every year in the UK, 115k from respiratory viruses. This time of the year is always the worst and hospital/ICU wards are always at breaking point. Nobody knows how many of the reported deaths are "covid" or "non Covid" or whether it even matters.  Every death is sad, not just "covid" ones. I'm at the point where I don't trust any figures, graphs, stats or headlines that come from government, scientists or from media outlets.

 

Yes these 5 caught Covid19 at an illegal gathering and died. It’s highly likely they wouldn’t have died if they had followed the advice. 
Its your choice to believe or not to believe how bad this virus is. 

[Enzo Chiefo]

29 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

 

Yes these 5 caught Covid19 at an illegal gathering and died. It’s highly likely they wouldn’t have died if they had followed the advice. 
Its your choice to believe or not to believe how bad this virus is. 

"We understand that...", is probably the giveaway phrase. No details are provided. It's a Daily Mail headline that has done it's job,  because we're commenting on it.

[Ulysses]

3 hours ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

600k people die every year in the UK, 115k from respiratory viruses. This time of the year is always the worst and hospital/ICU wards are always at breaking point. Nobody knows how many of the reported deaths are "covid" or "non Covid" or whether it even matters.  Every death is sad, not just "covid" ones. I'm at the point where I don't trust any figures, graphs, stats or headlines that come from government, scientists or from media outlets.

 

Have you got a source for the 115,000?  According to the WHO, acute respiratory illness (including TB, influenza and pneumonia) accounts for about 6-7% of deaths worldwide.  In Ireland, flu and pneumonia tend to cause around 3-4% of deaths.  Your UK proportion is about 19%.  Even accounting for age differences in the population that's a surprising variance.

[ri Alban]

23 hours ago, Nucky Thompson said:

Ah well, one good thing that came from covid is that it took the Yorkshire ripper out

The media is disgraceful. He's a fecking monster not some star who deserves a eulogy. Feck him and I hope he burns for eternity. 

Anyway, I hope he suffered profusely. 

[OBE]

 

Who would conspire to wreck peoples lives, global, national & local economies, children's and students education, major sports events, music concerts/festivals, travel home & abroad, hospitality, pubs & restaurants and a hug and a kiss from your Mothers Mother?

 

I wonder where this meeting took place and even more interested in the conspirers opening line...what ever could it have been?

 

Scots conspirator; Coorie in, I've got a guid yin, listen to this...  

[ri Alban]

12 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Radio news this morning says 5,000 excess deaths from heart conditions in England from March to October.

 

The cure is worse than the disease.

 

Aye, I'm sure you believe that. Maybe the world should call your bluff. 50000 dead even with restrictions, yet 5000 you say have died of heart conditions. 🤔 Let me think, how long would it take to put your heart in a bad condition.

Anyway, 4% is the death rate of covid, 0.1% is the rate for flu. But your right the cure (which we don't have) is better.

Die and let die is the new motto. 👍

[Beni]

27 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Radio news this morning says 5,000 excess deaths from heart conditions in England from March to October.

 

The cure is worse than the disease.

 

 

Were any of them elderly or have a comorbidity though? If this thread has taught us anything it's that having either of those means your death doesn't count.

Or maybe they died with heart disease, rather than from it.

[graygo]

28 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

Aye, I'm sure you believe that. Maybe the world should call your bluff. 50000 dead even with restrictions, yet 5000 you say have died of heart conditions. 🤔 Let me think, how long would it take to put your heart in a bad condition.

Anyway, 4% is the death rate of covid, 0.1% is the rate for flu. But your right the cure (which we don't have) is better.

Die and let die is the new motto. 👍

 

Where are you getting a 4% death rate from?

 

Edit: Sorry, I was looking at the UK stats.

 

Edited November 14, 2020 by graygo

[Beni]

11 minutes ago, jonesy said:

At least one was a heart disease denier, who refused to believe that people have hearts.

 

Strawman argument.

 

 

Edited November 14, 2020 by fancy a brew
Sorry, tinman.

[SectionFJambo]

1 hour ago, jonesy said:

Radio news this morning says 5,000 excess deaths from heart conditions in England from March to October.

 

The cure is worse than the disease.

 

 

Still seems a lot less than the 50k Covid deaths?

 

Are you suggesting we would be better letting 50k die of Covid to save the 5k heart conditions?

[graygo]

16 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Sorry, RA, I'm afraid your post doesn't make much sense to me. I love a lot of your posts, but the one above is a mess.

 

The stats are from the BHF. While they have reason to amplify their cause, I don't think they would necessarily promote false data.

 

I'm not sure of your 4% stat - where are you getting that from?

 

The 5,000 excess deaths are most likely from people whose conditions are not being treated/discovered due to the obsession with CV19. But you're right, heart disease is most likely to rise due to lockdowns and WFH (anecdotal evidence of folk gaining weight and boozing to excess at home).

 

The 4% stat is an estimate but the true figure will be much lower as we have no idea how many people are infected due to asymptomatic cases.

[Enzo Chiefo]

8 hours ago, Ulysses said:

 

Have you got a source for the 115,000?  According to the WHO, acute respiratory illness (including TB, influenza and pneumonia) accounts for about 6-7% of deaths worldwide.  In Ireland, flu and pneumonia tend to cause around 3-4% of deaths.  Your UK proportion is about 19%.  Even accounting for age differences in the population that's a surprising variance.

It is an oft quoted figure Ullyses. The British Lung Foundation report on Open Access Govt quotes 114,225 respiratory related deaths in 2017, approx 20% of the total number of deaths.

[graygo]

14 minutes ago, graygo said:

 

The 4% stat is an estimate but the true figure will be much lower as we have no idea how many people are infected due to asymptomatic cases.

 

Reference:

 

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-similarities-and-differences-with-influenza

 

Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care. 

[Enzo Chiefo]

4 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

Is that maybe the figure for all respiratory illnesses including cancer, COPD, asthma etc. Not just infections like flu. 

Yes, it is Brian. I think we all know that "Covid" reported deaths are going to include other forms of flu, pneumonia and respiratory related deaths. I, personally, wouldn't place a lot of faith in any of the daily stats that are churned out by either of our govts. 

I would ,though, like them to explain, however, with evidence to back it up, how they expect moving areas from Tier 3 to Tier 4, will reduce the number of "cases". That is tantamount to saying that non-essential shops, hairdresses etc are the source of the spread. They are not and, like hospitality before them, they are targetting the wrong areas. Feckless people are still visiting each others homes and that will continue regardless of tiers.  The govt can't prevent that but the only way to reduce it is to open up well run, safe hospitality venues that are abiding by the rules. They need to start being honest and transparent about who is getting it, where and how?