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Des Lynam

 

 

2 hours ago, Ulysses said:

 

You can tell from the questioning that this is not a partisan issue.  Trump should not be barred from the ballot for being accused of something.

 

I understand the need to see him face justice but at the same time I think they are playing into his hands. 

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Watt-Zeefuik

@Ulysses I really appreciate your contributions to this board, so I don't want to get into it further as this has gotten beyond frustrating and I'd rather leave it there. You continue to assert that there's no problems with polls, just ignoring the evidence that has been presented to you. (Seriously, if you read nothing else, at least click on the link to the Vanderbilt study. It says you're wrong in quite clear language with abundant evidence and analysis.)

 

And you repeatedly continue to miss the fundamental point that the entire exercise of looking at polls right now is to predict the results in November. Any other inflection is pointless. And that projection, because of the distance in time, is a very murky picture. This is basic shit. Stop trying to explain past it.

 

I've tried to discuss exactly why Biden has serious problems but they're known and they're addressable. The question is whether his campaign and his presidency can address them. That's not whistling away the problem, it's exploring it for understanding.

 

But if you're not going to saliently address the first two points and continue to pretend I'm saying something else so that you can argue with that straw man, this is not a conversation worth having further.

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Watt-Zeefuik
17 hours ago, Footballfirst said:

Time for Biden to call it a day?

 

 

 

 

On the one hand it's utterly shocking for the special council to put that into his report. It's a serious violation of professional practice. Merrick Garland obviously picked a very poor special prosecutor. The report already says there's nowhere near enough evidence to charge Biden with anything, even if he weren't President. Absolutely no reason to put that in other than partisan sliming. (The special prosecutor was a Trump appointee to the DOJ that was kept on.)

 

On the other hand, the noise on this has gotten deafening. It can't go on any longer. Biden needs to either get out and consistently prove that he's as mentally sharp as he insists he is. (And for my bit, I still think he's comparatively sharp for an 81 year old.) He needs to be out, off script, talking freely and he needs to make sure he doesn't have "senior moments" on the trail.

 

If he can't do that, he needs to figure out a way to step aside. It's a horrible time to do it as getting the party to consolidate behind someone (no @Masonic you're still wrong) but it only gets worse from now on.

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11 minutes ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

@Ulysses I really appreciate your contributions to this board, so I don't want to get into it further as this has gotten beyond frustrating and I'd rather leave it there.

 

You're dead right.  If you analyse data with your emotions, you're setting yourself up to be annoyed and frustrated.

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Watt-Zeefuik
4 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

You're dead right.  If you analyse data with your emotions, you're setting yourself up to be annoyed and frustrated.

 

**** off, dude. Absolutely nothing I wrote was analyzing with emotions. You're being ****ing intellectually lazy. Stop it.

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34 minutes ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

 

**** off, dude. Absolutely nothing I wrote was analyzing with emotions. You're being ****ing intellectually lazy. Stop it.

 

What part of "rather leave it there" are you repeatedly failing to grasp?

 

And you need to stop projecting, and to drop the ad hominem guff.

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Watt-Zeefuik
16 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

What part of "rather leave it there" are you repeatedly failing to grasp?

 

And you need to stop projecting, and to drop the ad hominem guff.

 

Ad hominum would be an attack on some quality of you as a person, not something you are doing. If you're going to use Latin phrases, use them correctly.

 

You are throwing what are effectively slurs around, after first demanding evidence of increased polling error and then steadfastly refusing to actually look at it when it's put in front of your face. That's being intellectually lazy. I know you're sharper than that because I've read your stuff on here for years and you can be very insightful when you put your mind to it. But you don't want to be disproved here so you're dismissing actual independent evidence by saying, without evidence, that I'm arguing with nothing but emotion. I'm willing to drop the subject matter because it's not fun to argue with someone who's being obstinate at the moment, but then you got nasty about it.

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28 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

What part of "rather leave it there" are you repeatedly failing to grasp?

 

 

Looks like I'll be kept waiting for an answer to this. 🤷‍♂️

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GOP trying desperately to make it harder for people to vote, just failed miserably in New York. This is exactly why they're so mad at Taylor Swift who simply encouraged people to register to vote, didn't say who to vote for. The GOP don't want people voting, because the more who vote the less chance they have.

HUGE surprise win for Democrats in 2024's most CRUCIAL state

 

Democracy Watch episode 78: Marc Elias discusses major voting rights victory in New York.

 

 

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My view too, in fact I think Trump has little to no chance of winning an election. Since there's talk of polls going on here we have the opinion of a "polling guru"

 

Biden to defeat Trump in election 2024 | Allan Lichtman

 

“A lot of things would have to go wrong over the next several months to predict a Biden defeat.”

 

There’s a possibility “Trump could be elected, but it's out of Trump's hands”, says Professor Allan Lichtman, who has successfully predicted the winner of each presidential race since 1984.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, JFK-1 said:

My view too, in fact I think Trump has little to no chance of winning an election. Since there's talk of polls going on here we have the opinion of a "polling guru"

 

Biden to defeat Trump in election 2024 | Allan Lichtman

 

“A lot of things would have to go wrong over the next several months to predict a Biden defeat.”

 

There’s a possibility “Trump could be elected, but it's out of Trump's hands”, says Professor Allan Lichtman, who has successfully predicted the winner of each presidential race since 1984.

 

 

 

 

Yahoo News says he has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984.  It doesn't say what "nearly" means, but apparently he got it wrong in 2000.

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10 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

 

Yahoo News says he has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984.  It doesn't say what "nearly" means, but apparently he got it wrong in 2000.

 

Personally i'm not basing my opinion on what he has to say, but it is encouraging that he got it right 8 out of 9 times?

 

Presumably that also means 2016 when I most certainly didn't get it right, but neither did the polls or the bulk of the political pundits. Yet he did.

That alone makes his opinion creditable and certainly more creditable than mine despite the fact I agree with him. In fact naw I don't, he agrees with me. 😉 

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Trump even when he gets a win still can't help losing. Looks like his own lawyers aren't up to speed on Trumps view that Jan 6th was a jolly tourist day out.

 

Trump Lawyer Admits Jan. 6 Was "Criminal" in Supreme Court Ballot Ban Hearing

 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, JFK-1 said:

 

Personally i'm not basing my opinion on what he has to say, but it is encouraging that he got it right 8 out of 9 times?

 

Presumably that also means 2016 when I most certainly didn't get it right, but neither did the polls or the bulk of the political pundits. Yet he did.

That alone makes his opinion creditable and certainly more creditable than mine despite the fact I agree with him. In fact naw I don't, he agrees with me. 😉 

 

I think he's on 9 out of 10, and he got 2016 right.  He's come under some criticism because some of the criteria he uses are regarded as a bit subjective.  But I'd consider 9 out of 10 to be impressive all the same.

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Polling guru Allan Lichtman predicted above that Trump would be in court in a criminal case and be convicted before November, I have thought that too for some weeks now.

Trump has no defence, absolutely nothing, all he has is a strategy of trying to run down the clock to stay out of court, in court he's doomed.  But the clock just wont stop ticking for him.

 

Any of you glad the SC allowed him to run? If he were thrown out the candidate may be Haley, and she would have an infinitely better chance of beating Biden than Trump does.

 

There are people who will vote for Biden rather than Trump, and these same people would vote for Haley if she were the candidate. Trump is a guaranteed loser.

 

He lost in senate and house elections, he lost the presidency. How many elections does he need to lose to prove he's a loser who fluked one election?

 

Plus I think one of the things Allan Lichtman is focusing on is the optics of Trump which already aren't good and are a huge part of what makes him a serial loser. Those optics are only going to get infinitely worse as all the legal drama plays out.

 

We're going to see some truly vilifying evidence produced in these trials, we know only a small sampling of what will be produced and that small sampling alone is damning.

 

He's going down and I hope he can still run as apparently there is no statute that can stop him even if a convict. Let the loser run and lose again. Then throw away the key.

 

Trump can be jailed in 2024: Appeals court deals nightmare blow in Jack Smith case

 

 

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Classic example of Trump demonstrating how he can execute a 180 degree turn when it suits him personally. Like how classified documents need to be treated.

No suggestion back then that stashing them in a toilet in a golf club is fine. And the full force of the law should be brought done on anyone who mishandles classified documents, said Trump back then. In 2016, pre coup attempt and all.

I hope they play this opening mash at his trial.

 

‘Culture of punishment’: Witnesses fear threats of violence for cooperating in Trump investigations

 

 

 

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henrysmithsgloves
30 minutes ago, JFK-1 said:

Classic example of Trump demonstrating how he can execute a 180 degree turn when it suits him personally. Like how classified documents need to be treated.

No suggestion back then that stashing them in a toilet in a golf club is fine. And the full force of the law should be brought done on anyone who mishandles classified documents, said Trump back then. In 2016, pre coup attempt and all.

I hope they play this opening mash at his trial.

 

‘Culture of punishment’: Witnesses fear threats of violence for cooperating in Trump investigations

 

 

 

Saving money on bogroll?🤣

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3 hours ago, henrysmithsgloves said:

Saving money on bogroll?🤣

 

Well it's interesting that Trump obsesses over toilets not flushing hard enough for him, doesn't surprise me since I always knew he was full of shit. In addition I bet it would be hard to flush away documents even if the bowl weren't already full of Trump shit, diaper and all.

And in fact there was an actual report from somebody that he blocked a Whitehouse toilet trying to flush away documents. They should just dig a big cesspool for Trump and his outsize orange arse. 

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henrysmithsgloves
4 hours ago, JFK-1 said:

 

Well it's interesting that Trump obsesses over toilets not flushing hard enough for him, doesn't surprise me since I always knew he was full of shit. In addition I bet it would be hard to flush away documents even if the bowl weren't already full of Trump shit, diaper and all.

And in fact there was an actual report from somebody that he blocked a Whitehouse toilet trying to flush away documents. They should just dig a big cesspool for Trump and his outsize orange arse. 

Take it you dislike trump 🤣🤣👍🏻

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Seymour M Hersh
4 hours ago, henrysmithsgloves said:

Take it you dislike trump 🤣🤣👍🏻

 

He's totally deranged. 

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Watt-Zeefuik
18 hours ago, JFK-1 said:

My view too, in fact I think Trump has little to no chance of winning an election. Since there's talk of polls going on here we have the opinion of a "polling guru"

 

Biden to defeat Trump in election 2024 | Allan Lichtman

 

“A lot of things would have to go wrong over the next several months to predict a Biden defeat.”

 

There’s a possibility “Trump could be elected, but it's out of Trump's hands”, says Professor Allan Lichtman, who has successfully predicted the winner of each presidential race since 1984.

 

 

 

This is effectively what I've been trying to argue. Calling him a "polling guru" is wrong because Lichtman has always been in "Camp Ignore the Polls."

 

This is what I mean in "normal political gravity." An unpopular, 90+ times indicted, already defeated President *normally* doesn't have a shot at beating an incumbent who's got a strong economy and low inflation at his back. Ongoing mess in Gaza or a catastrophic situation in Ukraine could throw it off. But aside from that, you have to believe that Trump somehow has a magical ability to transcend the things that usually structure an election.

 

And the other thing he says that I tried and apparently failed to explain above is that Trump's voting level is effectively fixed at this point. As Licthman says, "it's out of Trump's hands." If Biden can keep things like Gaza from fracturing his coalition, he should win, no matter what Trump does.

 

But the thing about politics is that everything is always the same and doesn't change, until it does. And I'd be a fool to say something different can't happen this year.

 

But "normal political gravity" points to Biden winning, even if the polls currently don't.

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Watt-Zeefuik
49 minutes ago, Jim_Duncan said:

I’m of the opinion (and, FWIW, did study voting behaviour 20-odd years ago) that there are so many political landmines for Biden to tiptoe onto over the next few months that the door will open for Trump. 


It’s certainly a hard one to predict. Trump has the risk that he might be in prison at the end of the campaign.

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The Mighty Thor

Tell you what Biden has absolutely lost it. 

He's a danger to Americans and the wider world.

 

20240211_062351.thumb.jpg.48ecd61db7c0425982840f749280e3c5.jpg

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il Duce McTarkin
7 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

Tell you what Biden has absolutely lost it. 

He's a danger to Americans and the wider world.

 

20240211_062351.thumb.jpg.48ecd61db7c0425982840f749280e3c5.jpg

 

And what about Trump?

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8 hours ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:


Trump has the risk that he might be in prison at the end of the campaign.

 

Christie: Trump will be a convicted felon when he accepts the GOP nomination

 

 

 

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Jack Smith has made a response to a filing by Trump simply attempting to delay the documents case, something everybody knows. The commentators are thinking the Smith response is aimed at that Trump loyalist Judge Aileen Cannon who herself has already delayed the trial with spurious nonsense a higher court had to take time to throw out and were scathing about how dumb she was.

Following that embarrassment I hope she's dumb enough to lay grounds for Smith to have her recused.

 

'Putting her on notice': Jack Smith losing patience with Judge Cannon in Trump documents case

 

 

 

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How insane is this. It's exactly what I have been saying and he just confirmed it, if this simple minded wacko were elected the whole world is going to fall into chaos.

 

Donald Trump has said he would "encourage" Russia to attack any Nato member that fails to pay its bills as part of the Western military alliance.

 

At a rally on Saturday, he said he had once told a leader he would not protect a nation behind on its payments, and would "encourage" the aggressors to "do whatever the hell they want".

 

Full article - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68266447

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Hagar the Horrible
1 hour ago, JFK-1 said:

How insane is this. It's exactly what I have been saying and he just confirmed it, if this simple minded wacko were elected the whole world is going to fall into chaos.

 

Donald Trump has said he would "encourage" Russia to attack any Nato member that fails to pay its bills as part of the Western military alliance.

 

At a rally on Saturday, he said he had once told a leader he would not protect a nation behind on its payments, and would "encourage" the aggressors to "do whatever the hell they want".

 

Full article - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68266447

There needs to be a new Lee Harvey Oswald to make this world safer.  The reality is though is other Nato chiefs will bring this imbecile under control. But just like we were forced to ditch our reliance on Putins Oil, we need to ditch America too, 

 

We are going to spend more on defence as Biden is a dithering old fool and Trump made Boris look like Einstein 

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Des Lynam
2 hours ago, JFK-1 said:

How insane is this. It's exactly what I have been saying and he just confirmed it, if this simple minded wacko were elected the whole world is going to fall into chaos.

 

Donald Trump has said he would "encourage" Russia to attack any Nato member that fails to pay its bills as part of the Western military alliance.

 

At a rally on Saturday, he said he had once told a leader he would not protect a nation behind on its payments, and would "encourage" the aggressors to "do whatever the hell they want".

 

Full article - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68266447


Conveniently ignoring the war in Ukraine and Middle East unrest on Biden’s watch. 
 

You are forever calling Trump a liar and we shouldn’t believe what comes out his mouth. Aren’t you being rather selective here? 

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2 hours ago, JFK-1 said:

How insane is this. It's exactly what I have been saying and he just confirmed it, if this simple minded wacko were elected the whole world is going to fall into chaos.

 

Donald Trump has said he would "encourage" Russia to attack any Nato member that fails to pay its bills as part of the Western military alliance.

 

At a rally on Saturday, he said he had once told a leader he would not protect a nation behind on its payments, and would "encourage" the aggressors to "do whatever the hell they want".

 

Full article - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68266447

 

I don't think Trump realises the extent to which NATO's nuclear arsenal, and its open willingness to use it in defence, acts as a peacekeeper and ironically has helped prevent nuclear war and mass-scale military aggression. That's what it was built for and any chink in that concept and solidarity is *extremely* dangerous. He is a moron. Yet a huge number of Americans lap it up.

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1 hour ago, Des Lynam said:


Conveniently ignoring the war in Ukraine and Middle East unrest on Biden’s watch. 
 

You are forever calling Trump a liar and we shouldn’t believe what comes out his mouth. Aren’t you being rather selective here? 

 

:rofl:

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2 hours ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

There needs to be a new Lee Harvey Oswald to make this world safer.  The reality is though is other Nato chiefs will bring this imbecile under control. But just like we were forced to ditch our reliance on Putins Oil, we need to ditch America too, 

 

We are going to spend more on defence as Biden is a dithering old fool and Trump made Boris look like Einstein 

 

You're probably right. It also means that anyone like Ireland who haven't bothered very much with defence spending will have to up their game.

 

But what happens to existing commitments?  If NATO countries can't trust a Republican-led America, are they going to spend more money on defence and at the same time remain in a defence alliance led by an untrustworthy "ally"?

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Bindy Badgy
14 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

This is the situation. 

 

 

20240211_142119.jpg

 

What's the source for this?

 

Some of the values, particularly Poland, are surprising. I thought USA would be highest by a considerable margin.

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24 minutes ago, Bindy Badgy said:

 

What's the source for this?

 

Some of the values, particularly Poland, are surprising. I thought USA would be highest by a considerable margin.

remember it is not total amount spent but as a percentage of that countries GDP

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Hagar the Horrible
36 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

You're probably right. It also means that anyone like Ireland who haven't bothered very much with defence spending will have to up their game.

 

But what happens to existing commitments?  If NATO countries can't trust a Republican-led America, are they going to spend more money on defence and at the same time remain in a defence alliance led by an untrustworthy "ally"?

We perhaps should spend more with our European partners, and if Trump gets in and/or Biden remains. But we need no longer be involved with US foreign policy, otherwise we better prepare for a fight in European arenas bordering on the soviet union like Poland, Finland Romania or Georgia. 

 

We need to be sure we are safe and if that means helping Ukraine more to  win then so be it. Under Trump Putin will have Carte-blanch to do what he wants.

 

The US want Ukraine to win but the slow drain Russia as a threat way. They want Putin to save face otherwise there might be six new smaller nuclear powers rather than one that might be more stable in 10 years when Putin is not a threat anymore.

 

US and European needs are  miles apart on this as it on our door step not theirs

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Mikey1874
46 minutes ago, Bindy Badgy said:

 

What's the source for this?

 

Some of the values, particularly Poland, are surprising. I thought USA would be highest by a considerable margin.

 

NATO is the source

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3 hours ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

There needs to be a new Lee Harvey Oswald to make this world safer.  The reality is though is other Nato chiefs will bring this imbecile under control. But just like we were forced to ditch our reliance on Putins Oil, we need to ditch America too, 

 

We are going to spend more on defence as Biden is a dithering old fool and Trump made Boris look like Einstein 

Well, rather than Oswald, the real killers won’t think twice of bumping off that perma-tanned crackpot ! 
They are still around. A wee Black Op and that ridiculous fool is history !

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1 hour ago, Bindy Badgy said:

 

What's the source for this?

 

Some of the values, particularly Poland, are surprising. I thought USA would be highest by a considerable margin.

 

USA has the biggest dollar figure.  Poland is highest as a percentage of GDP.  Poland has massively increased its defence expenditure in recent years.  They'll never say so publicly, but they're preparing for the next Russian invasion, and they know they can't trust Russia's lapdogs in the US Republican party.

 

 

Edited by Ulysses
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Bindy Badgy
7 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

USA has the biggest dollar figure.  Poland is highest as a percentage of GDP.  Poland has massively increased its defence expenditure in recent years.  They'll never say so publicly, but they're preparing for the next Russian invasion, and they know they can't trust Russia's lapdogs in the US Republican party.

 

 

 

It's a fair point about their proximity to Russia. They might be next if Ukraine falls.

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5 minutes ago, Bindy Badgy said:

 

It's a fair point about their proximity to Russia. They might be next if Ukraine falls.

 

I'd guess it'd be the Baltics first.

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il Duce McTarkin
9 hours ago, The Mighty Thor said:

Tell you what Biden has absolutely lost it. 

He's a danger to Americans and the wider world.

 

20240211_062351.thumb.jpg.48ecd61db7c0425982840f749280e3c5.jpg

 

I think your sarcasm went over my head in the early hours EST. :D

 

 

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il Duce McTarkin
13 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

I'd guess it'd be the Baltics first.

 

I know that I'm stating the obvious here, but NATO has been running high-level scenario modelling and drills in preparation for this for years also.

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23 minutes ago, il Duce McTarkin said:

 

I know that I'm stating the obvious here, but NATO has been running high-level scenario modelling and drills in preparation for this for years also.

 

I know I'm stating the obvious here, but that won't be worth the price of a Clyde season ticket if Putin's oversized orange puppet is in the White House.

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il Duce McTarkin
4 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

I know I'm stating the obvious here, but that won't be worth the price of a Clyde season ticket if Putin's oversized orange puppet is in the White House.

 

It's a terrifying prospect, quite frankly.

I've rarely wished misfortune on anyone, but a wee 'accidental' slip in the shower and resulting fatal blow to the head could really do America, Europe, and the wider world a huge favour here.

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The Mighty Thor
1 hour ago, il Duce McTarkin said:

 

I think your sarcasm went over my head in the early hours EST. :D

 

 

I thought you were trying the reverse sarcasm mind games 

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