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il Duce McTarkin
Just now, The Mighty Thor said:

I thought you were trying the reverse sarcasm mind games 

 

I'm not even close to smart enough.

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The Mighty Thor
1 minute ago, il Duce McTarkin said:

 

I'm not even close to smart enough.

😆

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Maple Leaf

I just spent a couple of days with two of my Republican relatives in Michigan.  We normally avoid talking about politics but I eased into the subject this morning over breakfast.

 

They didn't say much, other than they thought both Biden and Trump were very poor candidates.  They said that they were hoping Nikki Haley would win the Republican nomination.  They seemed reluctant to talk about it so the conversation moved on to other stuff.

 

My guess is that they'll vote for the Republican candidate.

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1 hour ago, Maple Leaf said:

My guess is that they'll vote for the Republican candidate.

 

These are not normal circumstances, Trump is abnormal, dangerous and obviously so. I tend to think anyone not seeing that is one of 3 things. Either too stupid to see it, they can't be helped.  Alternatively simply malevolent, hate the libs all that shit, or joker like insane.

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Watt-Zeefuik
11 hours ago, Bindy Badgy said:

 

What's the source for this?

 

Some of the values, particularly Poland, are surprising. I thought USA would be highest by a considerable margin.

 

Note the 2014 number, where the USA was highest percentage of GDP by a huge margin. Since then Russia invaded Ukraine and Poland is the closest NATO member.

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13 hours ago, Mikey1874 said:

This is the situation. 

 

 

20240211_142119.jpg

 

Couple of years ago the 2% target was set.

Looks like almost everyone has increased their spending to meet that target.

Except Turkey, but then they've always played their own game.

And the USA, who seem to have reduced their spending.
And the UK, who are skint.

 

So it seems that everyone else are "paying their bills" as the orange idiot would put it.

 

Edited by Cade
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Just now, Canscot said:

Chiefs win the Superbore. Let’s see what the Republicans have to say about that!

 

Conspiracy, how can any team win it for the 3rd time in 5 years. Just saying. 

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1 minute ago, JFK-1 said:

 

Conspiracy, how can any team win it for the 3rd time in 5 years. Just saying. 

Well. They have been claiming there would be a conspiracy for KC to win for some deluded reasoning only they can compute in their small minds. 🤷‍♂️😂

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Today is the deadline for Trump to file an appeal to the SC against the recent court of appeal decision that presidential immunity from prosecution is not a real thing, it doesn't exist. Will he or wont he?

 

One guy thinks that Trump might be too embarrassed to appeal to HIS supreme court and have it booted out. Wouldn't be too sure of that but he's definitely thin skinned and weak minded enough to consider that.

 

'Extending that clock': Legal experts on Trump delay tactics ahead of election

 

 

 

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Bindy Badgy
5 hours ago, Canscot said:

Well. They have been claiming there would be a conspiracy for KC to win for some deluded reasoning only they can compute in their small minds. 🤷‍♂️😂

 

 

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jambo_tar
10 hours ago, JFK-1 said:

 

These are not normal circumstances, Trump is abnormal, dangerous and obviously so. I tend to think anyone not seeing that is one of 3 things. Either too stupid to see it, they can't be helped.  Alternatively simply malevolent, hate the libs all that shit, or joker like insane.

Or desperate. The US is in a very sorry state at the moment and people are desperately looking for change. For some strange reason people over there believe that Trump can delivery that change. I think the rest of the world needs to batten down the hatches because the election is going to be one hell of a ride. 

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Mikey1874

The thing that's been missed in the anti Biden dementia chat, is he was saying these same stupid things 40 years ago. 

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Watt-Zeefuik
6 hours ago, Mikey1874 said:

The thing that's been missed in the anti Biden dementia chat, is he was saying these same stupid things 40 years ago. 

 

Exactly. He's been notorious for this since he had a full head of dark hair.

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Watt-Zeefuik

Meanwhile, another Trump Presidency will be totally fine . . .

 

Ex-Twitter post from @RonBrownstein: “Trump told NRA Friday his mass deportation program would begin "within moments" of taking office. To do at scale would likely require 150-200k law enforcement officers, including a private army of red state ntl guard he'd deploy into blue states More here.”

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Note how Trump in his fairy tales of big burly truck drivers with tears streaming down their face and so on is always addressed as sir, judging from the latest ramble about NATO which is shown here even world leaders, "of a big country" also habitually call him sir.

Which is odd because I remember a hot mic at the G20 or something when they were all caught marveling about how stupid he is. And no one was calling him sir, idiot was the title they were throwing around.

 

I wish he were smart enough to comprehend how stupid he really comes across as. But that would likely require an intelligence boost from toddler level to juvenile at least. But of course that isn't going to be happening.

 

Trump Stuns World with Threat to Encourage Russia to Attack NATO Allies

 

 

 

 

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19 hours ago, jambo_tar said:

Or desperate. The US is in a very sorry state at the moment and people are desperately looking for change.

 

Change to what? Not a record breaking economy? Not record job numbers? Not an economic recovery eclipsing everyone in Europe? If the US is in a sorry state Europe must be falling apart at the seams in comparison.

The state of the body politic is certainly dire, but whose fault is that? It's obviously not the fault of Biden. So what is it that needs to change do you think? And what would change it?

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il Duce McTarkin
1 hour ago, Maple Leaf said:

Image

 

Can't argue with that.

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Watt-Zeefuik

Big special election tonight. Replacing expelled Congressman and serial fantasist George Santos in suburban Long Island, New York.

 

The outcome has some minor consequences (a Democratic pickup would narrow the GOP's already very narrow majority) but in aggregate special elections tend to be predictors of general election results. This one is also important because it's a largely white, suburban district in the urban north of the sort that went for Trump in 2016 but switched to Biden in 2020, which didn't matter in New York but swung states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.

 

The GOP is trying to run on immigration and border issues. If they get a win tonight, it's another sign that Democrats have a lot to worry about on that front. If the Democrat wins, particularly handily, it's a sign that issue may not be as potent as the GOP wants.

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3 hours ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

Big special election tonight. Replacing expelled Congressman and serial fantasist George Santos in suburban Long Island, New York.

 

The outcome has some minor consequences (a Democratic pickup would narrow the GOP's already very narrow majority) but in aggregate special elections tend to be predictors of general election results. This one is also important because it's a largely white, suburban district in the urban north of the sort that went for Trump in 2016 but switched to Biden in 2020, which didn't matter in New York but swung states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.

 

The GOP is trying to run on immigration and border issues. If they get a win tonight, it's another sign that Democrats have a lot to worry about on that front. If the Democrat wins, particularly handily, it's a sign that issue may not be as potent as the GOP wants.

 

The Republican candidate makes for an, er, interesting read.  Someone who's immigrated to two countries, and who's lived in the US for less than half her life, campaigning to restrict immigration, and aiming (if I've read it right) to be the first Black Jewish person in Congress.  Hmmmm.

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Watt-Zeefuik

Early returns apparently look good for Suozzi, the Democrat. (I mean he's way up at 15% reporting which doesn't mean that much but he's up more than he needs to be per precinct or something. I haven't chased down the logic deep into the weeds on this one.)

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Watt-Zeefuik

News networks are calling it. Suozzi (D) is winning this handily. Margins could tighten but he's up 59-41 right now.

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Watt-Zeefuik

Democratic pessimism has become a ****ing cottage industry in Washington in the last decade or so. "Dems in disarray" became such a common headline that it became a joke meme and now the political rags have to use "increasingly concerned" instead.

 

Some of this is worthwhile, as excessive optimism is in some ways more dangerous.

 

But sometimes it's just in denial of empirical results.

 

I'm again quoting Josh Marshall on this:

 

Quote

With the clear light of morning I wanted to do another after-action report on the results out of the special election in New York’s 3rd congressional district. According to the close-to-final results former Rep. Tom Suozzi beat Mazi Pilip by eight percentage points, 54% to 46%. That is a decisive if not a huge margin.

 

Notably that’s the identical margin from the 2022 result when the now-expelled George Santos defeated Robert Zimmerman (D). (Suozzi gave up the seat in 2022 to make a truly quixotic run for governor.) So from GOP +8 to Dem +8. Suozzi’s 54% of the vote was also what Biden got in the district in 2020, though it’s important to note that the district lines were redrawn after 2022. So it’s not a perfect apples to apples comparison. But it shows that there is one way to look at this race as a completely baseline result, with George Santos’s win in 2022 as a big outlier, and part of a surprisingly strong showing for Republicans across the southern portion of New York State.

 

We’re hearing a lot of people say this morning that special elections aren’t predictive. In other words, Suozzi winning this seat doesn’t tell us one way or another about whether Joe Biden is going to beat Donald Trump. And that’s true as far as it goes. The dynamics of special elections are different. This is a swingish part of a very Democratic metropolitan area. You have one candidate who is very well known in the district, with a proven electoral track record versus another who was an almost total unknown.

 

But the polling data is notable. There were four polls in this race. Suozzi led in all four, with the margins, in chronological order: D+3, D+4 , D+4, D+1. The actual result appears to be D+8. In the world of vibes, this was too close to call and the Democrats were moving heaven and earth to stave off a humiliating defeat. That’s fun for post-vote cackling. But we need to sweep it to the side when looking at the polls, which never really showed that. As noted, the big Dem pessimist argument is that recent special elections don’t tell us much because low turnout special elections are tailor-made for the Democrats increasingly educated/affluent constituency which is made up of very consistent voters. That educated/affluent part of the Democratic coalition is the one that has remained most enamored of Joe Biden.

 

But the delta between the poll prediction and the actual result is a bit different. Special elections can be difficult to survey. But, at least in theory, a standard likely voter screen should be make sense of an election in which only very consistent voters show up. But the polls missed the outcome by a significant margin. One poll missing by 4 percentage points is basically the margin of error. But when they all do it’s more than that. They seem to have misjudged each candidate’s support by a small but significant degree. In one race that’s not a huge deal. But this has been a relatively consistent pattern now for going on two years: public polls understating Democratic strength by relatively small but fairly consistent measures.

 

Full post here: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/ny3-post-game-its-all-over-but-deciding-why-the-dem-win-doesnt-matter/sharetoken/EtTMbwYZIWpW

 

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Footballfirst

The US Congress has just voted 214-213 to impeach Mayorkas, the Homeland Security Secretary, over his alleged failure to control the borders.

 

I have no idea what the Republicans want to achieve by this other than to give Trump a platform to say he would do something different.  

 

In other US government news:

Apparently Turner is due to be briefed of this "threat" tomorrow, so perhaps it's surprising that he should issue such a scaremongering statement today.  Maybe it's to deflect from the Democrats winning a House seat from the Republicans last night.

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Watt-Zeefuik
1 hour ago, Footballfirst said:

The US Congress has just voted 214-213 to impeach Mayorkas, the Homeland Security Secretary, over his alleged failure to control the borders.

 

I have no idea what the Republicans want to achieve by this other than to give Trump a platform to say he would do something different.  

 

In other US government news:

Apparently Turner is due to be briefed of this "threat" tomorrow, so perhaps it's surprising that he should issue such a scaremongering statement today.  Maybe it's to deflect from the Democrats winning a House seat from the Republicans last night.

 

This has been the least productive House of Representatives tenure in decades. They've passed almost  nothing except for basic government funding bills, and those have fomented revolt. Republicans have such a narrow majority that the far right wing of the party can basically derail things, which their base is fully encouraging them to do.

 

In the wake of having done literally anything of importance other than fight with each other constantly, they're doing this impeachment to try to show their base that they've done something worthwhile. (They haven't of course, this couldn't be more DOA in the Senate if they tried.)

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Maple Leaf
6 hours ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

Democratic pessimism has become a ****ing cottage industry in Washington in the last decade or so. "Dems in disarray" became such a common headline that it became a joke meme and now the political rags have to use "increasingly concerned" instead.

 

Some of this is worthwhile, as excessive optimism is in some ways more dangerous.

 

But sometimes it's just in denial of empirical results.

 

I'm again quoting Josh Marshall on this:

 

 

Full post here: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/ny3-post-game-its-all-over-but-deciding-why-the-dem-win-doesnt-matter/sharetoken/EtTMbwYZIWpW

 

I hope that the above post is your polite way of telling me (and others) that we should calm the feck down!!!  :biggrin2:

 

Among Canadians, the Orange Rapist is probably the most despised politician anywhere, which is quite remarkable when we look at the ragtag bunch of nonentities who are in charge of this country.  Trudeau and his colleagues are just inept ... Trump is dangerous.  The mere possibility that Trump could win in November has millions of Canadians, including me, clutching our pearls and reaching for the smelling salts. 

 

The special election result in NY yesterday is like seeing the sun for the first time in weeks.  Let's hope that it's a sign of things to come. :thumb:

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doddsyJR9
28 minutes ago, Maple Leaf said:

I hope that the above post is your polite way of telling me (and others) that we should calm the feck down!!!  :biggrin2:

 

Among Canadians, the Orange Rapist is probably the most despised politician anywhere, which is quite remarkable when we look at the ragtag bunch of nonentities who are in charge of this country.  Trudeau and his colleagues are just inept ... Trump is dangerous.  The mere possibility that Trump could win in November has millions of Canadians, including me, clutching our pearls and reaching for the smelling salts. 

 

The special election result in NY yesterday is like seeing the sun for the first time in weeks.  Let's hope that it's a sign of things to come. :thumb:

So who do you want to win, while clutching your 'pearls'?

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Maple Leaf
4 minutes ago, doddsyJR9 said:

So who do you want to win, while clutching your 'pearls'?

Whoever is running against Trump.

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doddsyJR9
Just now, Maple Leaf said:

Whoever is running against Trump.

Doesn't that say more about you than it does him, and gives voting to the plebs a bad reputation? What if Gary Glitter was the opposite runner?

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il Duce McTarkin
41 minutes ago, doddsyJR9 said:

What if Gary Glitter was the opposite runner?

 

Trump would vote for him.

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doddsyJR9
2 minutes ago, il Duce McTarkin said:

 

Trump would vote for him.

I was asking why Maple Leaf would vote for anyone but Trump, no matter who it was, and you interject on Maple Leaf's behalf with a crazy posting. I'd have liked to have heard Maple Leaf's reasoning not that, thank you anyway.

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12 minutes ago, doddsyJR9 said:

I was asking why Maple Leaf would vote for anyone but Trump, no matter who it was, and you interject on Maple Leaf's behalf with a crazy posting. I'd have liked to have heard Maple Leaf's reasoning not that, thank you anyway.

 

I think you're the one who has an issue if you have to ask why he would vote for whoever is running against Trump. You seriously can't figure that out?

 

Throwing out the vacuous Gary Glitter shite. There will be no convicts running against Trump, glad to enlighten you about that.

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doddsyJR9
4 minutes ago, JFK-1 said:

 

I think you're the one who has an issue if you have to ask why he would vote for whoever is running against Trump. You seriously can't figure that out?

 

Throwing out the vacuous Gary Glitter shite. There will be no convicts running against Trump, glad to enlighten you about that.

No I can't 'figure it out'. I liked Trump's 'Make America Great Again'. Why is that so hated by haters? While clutching their 'pearls'?

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doddsyJR9
8 minutes ago, JFK-1 said:

 

I think you're the one who has an issue if you have to ask why he would vote for whoever is running against Trump. You seriously can't figure that out?

 

Throwing out the vacuous Gary Glitter shite. There will be no convicts running against Trump, glad to enlighten you about that.

Lots of citizens arrests against your probable messiah Tony Blair, a shouda been convict, who still roams among us, a millionaire property convert. Yeah.

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aye but what if it wiz fred west or jimmy savile or harold shipman running fur the democrats likesay eh

 

what then eh?

 

eh?

 

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Watt-Zeefuik
2 hours ago, Maple Leaf said:

I hope that the above post is your polite way of telling me (and others) that we should calm the feck down!!!  :biggrin2:

 

Among Canadians, the Orange Rapist is probably the most despised politician anywhere, which is quite remarkable when we look at the ragtag bunch of nonentities who are in charge of this country.  Trudeau and his colleagues are just inept ... Trump is dangerous.  The mere possibility that Trump could win in November has millions of Canadians, including me, clutching our pearls and reaching for the smelling salts. 

 

The special election result in NY yesterday is like seeing the sun for the first time in weeks.  Let's hope that it's a sign of things to come. :thumb:

 

Heh, if I paint too rosy a picture, Uly will come back around and tell me that I'm thinking with my feelings and that I'm unqualified for my job again.

 

I'll say again that I think Biden winning remains the more likely scenario. The fact that Trump actually has a reasonable chance of winning is terrifying, certainly, but IMO there's still also a reasonable chance that he gets utterly pantsed (as he should in any sane world).

 

1 hour ago, doddsyJR9 said:

Doesn't that say more about you than it does him, and gives voting to the plebs a bad reputation? What if Gary Glitter was the opposite runner?

 

I know you think you're being cute, but for one thing, Gary Glitter isn't running against him, so this is nonsense outright. It is in no way unreasonable to not want the far and away worst President in the history of the United States back in office. To be quite honest, for all Glitter's offenses (it would make two sexual predators on the ballot, after all), he has no history of trying to overthrow a legitimate democratic election, inciting lethal violence against his foes, or making any promises to purge the federal workforce or throw my neighbors out of the country. So you know what, **** yes, I'd vote for Gary Glitter before Donald Trump. And I'd probably vote for just about anyone else before voting for either of them, but that's how bad Trump is.

 

And if we're doing it this way, yeah, the fact that you think this is some kind of surprising or unreasonable take says plenty about you, none of it good.

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4 minutes ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

 

Heh, if I paint too rosy a picture, Uly will come back around and tell me that I'm thinking with my feelings and that I'm unqualified for my job again.

 


I don't mind what kind of picture you paint.  I just have a preference for artists who base their sketches on the landscape itself rather than what they would like the landscape to look like. :laugh:  

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11 minutes ago, Cade said:

aye but what if it wiz fred west or jimmy savile or harold shipman running fur the democrats likesay eh

 

what then eh?

 

eh?

 

 

Aren't they all dead?  :whistling: 

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doddsyJR9
10 minutes ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

 

Heh, if I paint too rosy a picture, Uly will come back around and tell me that I'm thinking with my feelings and that I'm unqualified for my job again.

 

I'll say again that I think Biden winning remains the more likely scenario. The fact that Trump actually has a reasonable chance of winning is terrifying, certainly, but IMO there's still also a reasonable chance that he gets utterly pantsed (as he should in any sane world).

 

 

I know you think you're being cute, but for one thing, Gary Glitter isn't running against him, so this is nonsense outright. It is in no way unreasonable to not want the far and away worst President in the history of the United States back in office. To be quite honest, for all Glitter's offenses (it would make two sexual predators on the ballot, after all), he has no history of trying to overthrow a legitimate democratic election, inciting lethal violence against his foes, or making any promises to purge the federal workforce or throw my neighbors out of the country. So you know what, **** yes, I'd vote for Gary Glitter before Donald Trump. And I'd probably vote for just about anyone else before voting for either of them, but that's how bad Trump is.

 

And if we're doing it this way, yeah, the fact that you think this is some kind of surprising or unreasonable take says plenty about you, none of it good.

Genuine question - How was he far and away the worst ever President? I liked his 'Make America Great Again'. I appreciate it led his haters into a frenzy. You know, the left, the Alistair Campbell's, Justin Trudeaus or whatever his name is etc etc. i want reasoning and I want it now, instead of leftist hatred.

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Watt-Zeefuik
12 minutes ago, Ulysses said:


I don't mind what kind of picture you paint.  I just have a preference for artists who base their sketches on the landscape itself rather than what they would like the landscape to look like. :laugh:  

 

Yeah, I just wish you'd actually look at the painting before deciding it's not related to the landscape.

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Watt-Zeefuik
6 minutes ago, doddsyJR9 said:

Genuine question - How was he far and away the worst ever President? I liked his 'Make America Great Again'. I appreciate it led his haters into a frenzy. You know, the left, the Alistair Campbell's, Justin Trudeaus or whatever his name is etc etc. i want reasoning and I want it now, instead of leftist hatred.

 

You want reasoning and you want it now. What am I, your dancing monkey, Mr. 296 posts, half of them in the Shed?

 

You like that he winds up his enemies. That and his slogan are literally the only things you can name about him. Well, welcome to the modern Republican party, where solving problems is completely unimportant as long as you "pwn the libs."

 

If you'd bother to read the post I'd written, I've already named several of his offenses. How many do you want, and what do I get for starting to the gaping hole in your awareness of the world? Here's a couple of freebies, hollwoing out US military support for Ukraine thereby opening the door for Putin's invasion, collaborating with the Federalist Society to corrupt the judiciary, leading to the overturn of Roe v. Wade, and totally bolloxing that tax code so that I mysteriously pay more in taxes despite his "cuts" while the deficit balloons. Throw on the horribly botched response to coronavirus that killed hundreds of thousands that could have been saved with a moderately competent response and we'll go from there.

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2 hours ago, Maple Leaf said:

The special election result in NY yesterday is like seeing the sun for the first time in weeks.  Let's hope that it's a sign of things to come. :thumb:

 

It's very hard to read anything into a special election in one district, especially where the turnout seems to have been very low.  It's also difficult to make comparisons over time as well, particularly where boundaries have been redrawn.  But I'd still sound a cautionary note from a Democrat perspective.  Suozzi won with 53.8% of the vote.  In 2016, when Trump was getting close enough in the popular vote nationally to tip the Electoral College in his favour, Suozzi won the seat with 52.9% of the vote.  So while he regained the seat with a hefty swing, his vote share was less than 1 percentage point higher than in 2016.  If that kind of scoring were repeated nationally in November, you'd probably just about see a Trump defeat, but it would be a tighter race than 2020.  Bear in mind as well that the Republican candidate seems to have run a strange race, and that Santos' antics may have depressed the Republican vote in the district to Pilip's disadvantage.  I'm not saying that happened, because I've no way of knowing, but there's enough reason for caution, IMO.

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doddsyJR9
11 minutes ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

 

You want reasoning and you want it now. What am I, your dancing monkey, Mr. 296 posts, half of them in the Shed?

 

You like that he winds up his enemies. That and his slogan are literally the only things you can name about him. Well, welcome to the modern Republican party, where solving problems is completely unimportant as long as you "pwn the libs."

 

If you'd bother to read the post I'd written, I've already named several of his offenses. How many do you want, and what do I get for starting to the gaping hole in your awareness of the world? Here's a couple of freebies, hollwoing out US military support for Ukraine thereby opening the door for Putin's invasion, collaborating with the Federalist Society to corrupt the judiciary, leading to the overturn of Roe v. Wade, and totally bolloxing that tax code so that I mysteriously pay more in taxes despite his "cuts" while the deficit balloons. Throw on the horribly botched response to coronavirus that killed hundreds of thousands that could have been saved with a moderately competent response and we'll go from there.

As I said, Donald wants to 'Make America Great Again', and the haters hate. 

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9 minutes ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

 

Yeah, I just wish you'd actually look at the painting before deciding it's not related to the landscape.

 

As I recall, you went on a bit about something that was unrelated to the point I was making, in response to someone else's comment.  When I told you that you got a bit overwrought.

 

And now you're grumbling away again.  I can't recall exactly when it was, but it was a few days ago, and you still seem bothered over it.  You should probably let it go, IMO, as it's hardly worth getting wound up about again.  Keep it on topic, eh?

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Watt-Zeefuik
Just now, Ulysses said:

 

As I recall, you went on a bit about something that was unrelated to the point I was making, in response to someone else's comment.  When I told you that you got a bit overwrought.

 

And now you're grumbling away again.  I can't recall exactly when it was, but it was a few days ago, and you still seem bothered over it.  You should probably let it go, IMO, as it's hardly worth getting wound up about again.  Keep it on topic, eh?

 

Mate, I made a throwaway comment as a joke in response to Maple Leaf. Did that really bother you that much?

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Watt-Zeefuik
2 minutes ago, doddsyJR9 said:

As I said, Donald wants to 'Make America Great Again', and the haters hate. 

 

Aye, and it said "work makes freedom" over Auschwitz, what's so bad about that?

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