Brexit Deal agreed ( updated )

[kila]

56 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

Exactly we haven’t a scooby of gaining EU membership due to economic reasons despite the cringey and embarrassing “ leave a light on fir Scotland “ message from Sturgeon thd other night on Twitter 

 

I really believe the EU would try and help an independent Scotland. Why would the EU turn their back on Scotland as it'd only further any anti-EU views?

 

Scotland could sell England water in the future. As ridiculous as it sounds, droughts are going to be common place in the years ahead for large parts of England. Of course Westminster could build some reservoirs to help with stock but they won't!

 

[Cade]

Scotland would meet the EU's joining demands in less than ten years.

It'd take around that length of time to complete the joining negotiations anyways.

Nobody has ever claimed that Scotland would be fast tracked.

It'll take as long as it takes, but transitional agreements would be made before formal membership is confirmed.

 

 

[JudyJudyJudy]

7 minutes ago, kila said:

 

I really believe the EU would try and help an independent Scotland. Why would the EU turn their back on Scotland as it'd only further any anti-EU views?

 

Scotland could sell England water in the future. As ridiculous as it sounds, droughts are going to be common place in the years ahead for large parts of England. Of course Westminster could build some reservoirs to help with stock but they won't!

 

I do want an independent Scotland and a seat at the table at the EU bit certain criteria has to be met to ensure EU membership . Oh that would be great selling water to the English . 

[kila]

4 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

I do want an independent Scotland and a seat at the table at the EU bit certain criteria has to be met to ensure EU membership . Oh that would be great selling water to the English . 

 

I think in an independence scenario Scotland would be in limbo - maybe it'd be like NI right now with their Brexit arrangement? Not quite a member but not quite fully out the door either.

 

Either way Brexit is far from over despite the deal and bells ringing out on the 1st January. In some ways, Brexit has only just begun...

 

Edited January 2, 2021 by kila

[pablo]

The SNP's policy of sterlingisation after Independence isn't compatible with EU membership. That's the simple fact of the matter.

 

From this point onwards it's a 20 year journey for Scotland to gain membership of the EU.

 

It's not happening.

 

[Adam_the_legend]

1 hour ago, Cade said:

Scotland would meet the EU's joining demands in less than ten years.

It'd take around that length of time to complete the joining negotiations anyways.

Nobody has ever claimed that Scotland would be fast tracked.

It'll take as long as it takes, but transitional agreements would be made before formal membership is confirmed.

 

 

Even a cursory look at this thread shows that is false. Denying reality is not a sound campaign strategy so fair play for your honesty. Unfortunately many will not follow your lead and the arguments for Scotland joining the EU in no time “just cos” will continue. 

[Unknown user]

22 minutes ago, pablo said:

The SNP's policy of sterlingisation after Independence isn't compatible with EU membership. That's the simple fact of the matter.

 

From this point onwards it's a 20 year journey for Scotland to gain membership of the EU.

 

It's not happening.

 

 

Nonsense. 

 

If that was true, then explain the countries who've joined up to the EU, agreed to the rules re implementing the Euro, but decided not to implement the Euro after all. 

[pablo]

Just now, Smithee said:

 

Nonsense. 

 

If that was true, then explain the countries who've joined up to the EU, agreed to the rules re implementing the Euro, but decided not to implement the Euro after all. 

 

It's not nonsense Smithee. You need to have a read of the Copenhagen Criteria.

 

If Scotland isn't isn't in control of it's own monetary policy, such as setting interest rates and setting QE levels it wouldn't be able to demonstrate a track record of good financial management.  It's black and white.

 

Sorry. 

[Adam_the_legend]

4 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

Nonsense. 

 

If that was true, then explain the countries who've joined up to the EU, agreed to the rules re implementing the Euro, but decided not to implement the Euro after all. 

So you want scotland to join the EU under the pretence of joining the Euro then renege on that commitment? Sounds like the type of behaviour Westminster gets criticised for.

 

Then there’s the fact that the Eurozone countries will continue integrating more closely over the coming years so it becomes a question of why be a member of the EU if you aren’t “all in”?

[Unknown user]

3 minutes ago, pablo said:

 

It's not nonsense Smithee. You need to have a read of the Copenhagen Criteria.

 

If Scotland isn't isn't in control of it's own monetary policy, such as setting interest rates and setting QE levels it wouldn't be able to demonstrate a track record of good financial management.  It's black and white.

 

Sorry. 

 

Nope, its just a hurdle that unionists like to pretend is an unscalable wall.

 

It wouldn't be an impossible dream for Scotland to join the EU even if all the unionists pretend it is.

[WorldChampions1902]

7 minutes ago, pablo said:

 

It's not nonsense Smithee. You need to have a read of the Copenhagen Criteria.

 

If Scotland isn't isn't in control of it's own monetary policy, such as setting interest rates and setting QE levels it wouldn't be able to demonstrate a track record of good financial management.  It's black and white.

 

Sorry. 

Ahhh......yes.......the Copenhagen Criteria. Quick.....somebody tell the Tories to stop wasting any more energy on this, as all they have to do is say, “Copenhagen Criteria”.

 

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/uk-politics/2582080/tories-advised-to-block-an-independent-scotland-joining-european-union/

 

[Unknown user]

3 minutes ago, Adam_the_legend said:

So you want scotland to join the EU under the pretence of joining the Euro then renege on that commitment? Sounds like the type of behaviour Westminster gets criticised for.

 

Then there’s the fact that the Eurozone countries will continue integrating more closely over the coming years so it becomes a question of why be a member of the EU if you aren’t “all in”?

I want Scotland free of Westminster, able to decide it's own fate, it's people empowered to take responsibility for it's future. 

 

But yes, I'd have no problem signing up to the EU then deciding against joining the Euro if that was the democratic will of the Scottish people. If it's working within the rules to the will of the people, of course that's what should happen.

[pablo]

2 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

Nope, its just a hurdle that unionists like to pretend is an unscalable wall.

 

It wouldn't be an impossible dream for Scotland to join the EU even if all the unionists pretend it is.

 

That's really weak and I say that from a pro-EU perspective.

 

The SNP policy of using Sterling and ceding monetary policy to the Bank of England is not compatible with gaining membership of the EU. The rules are there in black and white.

[Unknown user]

1 minute ago, pablo said:

 

That's really weak and I say that from a pro-EU perspective.

 

The SNP policy of using Sterling and ceding monetary policy to the Bank of England is not compatible with gaining membership of the EU. The rules are there in black and white.

Yet people with political power within the EU believe it could be worked around. Hmm, who to believe?

 

We're a different case from places like Turkey, we've been in the EU, we're already aligned to acceptable levels, there's definite exceptional circumstances and the EU would love to have us as a member.

[pablo]

3 minutes ago, Smithee said:

Yet people with political power within the EU believe it could be worked around. Hmm, who to believe?

 

We're a different case from places like Turkey, we've been in the EU, we're already aligned to acceptable levels, there's definite exceptional circumstances and the EU would love to have us as a member.

 

Who within in the EU is saying they'll ignore their own rules?

 

And if you could provide any list of member states over the years that contains Scotland , that would be great.

 

[NANOJAMBO]

18 minutes ago, WorldChampions1902 said:

Ahhh......yes.......the Copenhagen Criteria. Quick.....somebody tell the Tories to stop wasting any more energy on this, as all they have to do is say, “Copenhagen Criteria”.

 

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/uk-politics/2582080/tories-advised-to-block-an-independent-scotland-joining-european-union/

 

One way of trying to break the link between independence and remaining in the single market is by “co-opting the EU into demonstrating that there is no viable pathway to renewed membership,” the report said.

 

Co-opting ? 

No, not co-opting. 

Plenty of other words would be more appropriate. 

[Adam_the_legend]

2 minutes ago, Smithee said:

Yet people with political power within the EU believe it could be worked around. Hmm, who to believe?

 

We're a different case from places like Turkey, we've been in the EU, we're already aligned to acceptable levels, there's definite exceptional circumstances and the EU would love to have us as a member.

 

Make no mistake, the EU will do what’s in their best interests. This idea they are some

soft cuddly union who will bend over backwards to welcome an independent Scotland into the fold is misplaced. If Scotland joining causes issues for the EU they will not entertain it.

 

The Catalonia issue being one concern not to mention all the other countries on the waiting list that we would need to overtake to the front of the queue to be in within a decade. Plus, we would likely be a long term net beneficiary rather than contributor (like most EU countries). After losing the UK’s budget contribution would it be a politically smooth process to bring in more financial drag on the budget?

 

This idea that the EU loves Scotland and would welcome it with open arms misses the fact that it’s a massive bureaucracy and that’s not how it functions. 

[NANOJAMBO]

3 minutes ago, pablo said:

 

Who within in the EU is saying they'll ignore their own rules?

 

And if you could provide any list of member states over the years that contains Scotland , that would be great.

 

Politics : the art of the possible.

Scotland has de facto been a member of the EU already, it's a sizeable economy and if there's a  will from the people of Scotland for independence (and EU membership) then there's no reason to believe this is not achievable. 

 

That's the unpalatable truth for some on here. 

[NANOJAMBO]

3 minutes ago, Adam_the_legend said:

 

Make no mistake, the EU will do what’s in their best interests. This idea they are some

soft cuddly union who will bend over backwards to welcome an independent Scotland into the fold is misplaced. If Scotland joining causes issues for the EU they will not entertain it.

 

The Catalonia issue being one concern not to mention all the other countries on the waiting list that we would need to overtake to the front of the queue to be in within a decade. Plus, we would likely be a long term net beneficiary rather than contributor (like most EU countries). After losing the UK’s budget contribution would it be a politically smooth process to bring in more financial drag on the budget?

 

This idea that the EU loves Scotland and would welcome it with open arms misses the fact that it’s a massive bureaucracy and that’s not how it functions. 

It's not an issue in this debate.

It's an issue for Spain.

No matter how many times people drag this up.

[pablo]

2 minutes ago, NANOJAMBO said:

Politics : the art of the possible.

Scotland has de facto been a member of the EU already, it's a sizeable economy and if there's a  will from the people of Scotland for independence (and EU membership) then there's no reason to believe this is not achievable. 

 

That's the unpalatable truth for some on here. 

 

Ah right, fingers crossed then. 

[Adam_the_legend]

1 minute ago, NANOJAMBO said:

It's not an issue in this debate.

It's an issue for Spain.

No matter how many times people drag this up.

Im not sure what you mean. Spain is a member of the EU. The EU is the party we would be trying to negotiate with. How is internal EU politics not relevant if it affects Scotland’s application?

[NANOJAMBO]

4 minutes ago, Adam_the_legend said:

 

Make no mistake, the EU will do what’s in their best interests. This idea they are some

soft cuddly union who will bend over backwards to welcome an independent Scotland into the fold is misplaced. If Scotland joining causes issues for the EU they will not entertain it.

 

The Catalonia issue being one concern not to mention all the other countries on the waiting list that we would need to overtake to the front of the queue to be in within a decade. Plus, we would likely be a long term net beneficiary rather than contributor (like most EU countries). After losing the UK’s budget contribution would it be a politically smooth process to bring in more financial drag on the budget?

 

This idea that the EU loves Scotland and would welcome it with open arms misses the fact that it’s a massive bureaucracy and that’s not how it functions. 

This simplistic point was done to death in the brexit debate (but brexiters didn't want to hear it).

EU membership and the UK contribution was more than repaid though increase in GDP resulting from said membership.  The question should be be : assuming (which you are) that Scotland would become a net contributor IF it gained EU membership, would that cost be worth the while, would there be a net economic gain in GDP ? 

[NANOJAMBO]

1 minute ago, pablo said:

 

Ah right, fingers crossed then. 

We done then ? 

[NANOJAMBO]

1 minute ago, Adam_the_legend said:

Im not sure what you mean. Spain is a member of the EU. The EU is the party we would be trying to negotiate with. How is internal EU politics not relevant if it affects Scotland’s application?

The in-fighting between Madrid & Barcelona has no bearing on this debate. 

[Adam_the_legend]

5 minutes ago, NANOJAMBO said:

Politics : the art of the possible.

Scotland has de facto been a member of the EU already, it's a sizeable economy and if there's a  will from the people of Scotland for independence (and EU membership) then there's no reason to believe this is not achievable. 

 

That's the unpalatable truth for some on here. 

Achievable is a broad term. What if it took 20 years? We would have achieved membership but what would a Scotland that’s been out of the UK and EU for 20 years look like. Anything is possible but like Cade’s post earlier it’s important to be honest with people of the possible outcomes and timescales. Neither of us can predict the future. 

[WorldChampions1902]

5 minutes ago, NANOJAMBO said:

Politics : the art of the possible.

Scotland has de facto been a member of the EU already, it's a sizeable economy and if there's a  will from the people of Scotland for independence (and EU membership) then there's no reason to believe this is not achievable. 

 

That's the unpalatable truth for some on here. 

As if discussing Brexit in isolation wasn’t complicated enough, let’s throw in INDYREF2 and Scotland to Re-join! My favourite in all of this is family members that voted Leave telling me that they couldn’t vote for Independence because it would damage the economy!

[Adam_the_legend]

7 minutes ago, NANOJAMBO said:

This simplistic point was done to death in the brexit debate (but brexiters didn't want to hear it).

EU membership and the UK contribution was more than repaid though increase in GDP resulting from said membership.  The question should be be : assuming (which you are) that Scotland would become a net contributor IF it gained EU membership, would that cost be worth the while, would there be a net economic gain in GDP ? 

 

4 minutes ago, NANOJAMBO said:

The in-fighting between Madrid & Barcelona has no bearing on this debate. 

You seem to viewing the whole debate from Scotland’s perspective. I’m trying to predict the potential obstacles that would be there for Scotland joining the EU and that includes from the EU side. This idea that because the issue isn’t on the Scottish side then it’s not to be acknowledged is strange. It affects nonetheless so surely is absolutely valid to the conversation?

[JudyJudyJudy]

2 hours ago, kila said:

 

I think in an independence scenario Scotland would be in limbo - maybe it'd be like NI right now with their Brexit arrangement? Not quite a member but not quite fully out the door either.

 

Either way Brexit is far from over despite the deal and bells ringing out on the 1st January. In some ways, Brexit has only just begun...

 

Unsure about your claim that Brexit is " over".  Legally it is now.  However i think there will be concessions after concessions from the EU and UK in the next few years and I can imagine we wont be that far from where we were when we were actually members.  Just a feeling.

[NANOJAMBO]

Just now, Adam_the_legend said:

Achievable is a broad term. What if it took 20 years? We would have achieved membership but what would a Scotland that’s been out of the UK and EU for 20 years look like. Anything is possible but like Cade’s post earlier it’s important to be honest with people of the possible outcomes and timescales. Neither of us can predict the future. 

I'm not trying to predict anything I am trying to move the debate on from the usual entrenched & simplistic "yes"  or "no" positions.  I am trying to be honest about what is possible. 

I don't live in Scotland and I'd have voted "no" at the  last indy ref had I been resident simply because of the EU membership question. That has now become  a game changer for many.

For me, this isn't just about indy but about what happens next (ie obtaining EU membership - and whether it's worth the cost). 

This is the view that Ireland took in the 70s when it decided to move away from its dependency on UK trade and looked to Europe instead. For me , this is what Scotland needs to decide on - and maybe that case becomes easier when we start to see the brexit impact on the UK economy because brexit is a bad decision, it's been proven already re job losses and it remains to be seen to what extent the UK can grow the economy (I don't think it will, it will be happy so long as London and the Home Counties continue to flourish).

Will it take 20 years - I don't think so. If it's going to happen it will happen much sooner. 

If it takes longer , that's up to the Scottish electorate. 

[pablo]

12 minutes ago, NANOJAMBO said:

We done then ? 

 

Up to you. As things stand an Independent Scotland would not meet the Copenhagen criteria. Scotland's only way of joining the EU is as a brand new candidate. The SNP knows this, but they also know that to deviate from the Sterling option wouldn't be popular. It's a quandary for them I guess. 

[NANOJAMBO]

8 minutes ago, WorldChampions1902 said:

As if discussing Brexit in isolation wasn’t complicated enough, let’s throw in INDYREF2 and Scotland to Re-join! My favourite in all of this is family members that voted Leave telling me that they couldn’t vote for Independence because it would damage the economy!

Ans then saying they'd vote "yes" , if / when there's a re-run. 

[kila]

5 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

Unsure about your claim that Brexit is " over".  Legally it is now.  However i think there will be concessions after concessions from the EU and UK in the next few years and I can imagine we wont be that far from where we were when we were actually members.  Just a feeling.

 

Gee yer glasses a wipe  I wrote 'far from over'

 

[Adam_the_legend]

1 minute ago, NANOJAMBO said:

I'm not trying to predict anything I am trying to move the debate on from the usual entrenched & simplistic "yes"  or "no" positions.  I am trying to be honest about what is possible. 

I don't live in Scotland and I'd have voted "no" at the  last indy ref had I been resident simply because of the EU membership question. That has now become  a game changer for many.

For me, this isn't just about indy but about what happens next (ie obtaining EU membership - and whether it's worth the cost). 

This is the view that Ireland took in the 70s when it decided to move away from its dependency on UK trade and looked to Europe instead. For me , this is what Scotland needs to decide on - and maybe that case becomes easier when we start to see the brexit impact on the UK economy because brexit is a bad decision, it's been proven already re job losses and it remains to be seen to what extent the UK can grow the economy (I don't think it will, it will be happy so long as London and the Home Counties continue to flourish).

Will it take 20 years - I don't think so. If it's going to happen it will happen much sooner. 

If it takes longer , that's up to the Scottish electorate. 

It’s not though. That’s my point. Even if the Scottish electorate decide to apply to join the EU, the EU will be the final arbiters of whether we can join and how long it takes. 

[NANOJAMBO]

6 minutes ago, Adam_the_legend said:

 

You seem to viewing the whole debate from Scotland’s perspective. I’m trying to predict the potential obstacles that would be there for Scotland joining the EU and that includes from the EU side. This idea that because the issue isn’t on the Scottish side then it’s not to be acknowledged is strange. It affects nonetheless so surely is absolutely valid to the conversation?

My point couldn't be clearer and it's based on what I've read from a number of bloggers/politicians : Madrid/Barcelona will have no bearing on what happens re any application from Scotland, should there ever be one.  I don't ignore what happens there , it's simply not relevant here  - but I'm always willing to listen to the "other side". 

[NANOJAMBO]

Just now, Adam_the_legend said:

It’s not though. That’s my point. Even if the Scottish electorate decide to apply to join the EU, the EU will be the final arbiters of whether we can join and how long it takes. 

 I'm talking about how long the Scottish electorate may or may not take to make that step (to applying for EU membership). I never said anything that can be construed as Scotland setting the pace - in fact I made the point this is partly predicated on the Scottish people deciding in the first place to apply  for membership (which they clearly may possibly not chose to do)

[JudyJudyJudy]

6 minutes ago, kila said:

 

Gee yer glasses a wipe  I wrote 'far from over'

 

Your terribly aggressive ...anger management issues................ 😮 ffs big deal I misquoted you ffs 

[NANOJAMBO]

11 minutes ago, pablo said:

 

Up to you. As things stand an Independent Scotland would not meet the Copenhagen criteria. Scotland's only way of joining the EU is as a brand new candidate. The SNP knows this, but they also know that to deviate from the Sterling option wouldn't be popular. It's a quandary for them I guess. 

Indeed. But I come back to the "art of the possible".

None of the above is insurmountable. 

[JudyJudyJudy]

2 minutes ago, NANOJAMBO said:

 I'm talking about how long the Scottish electorate may or may not take to make that step (to applying for EU membership). I never said anything that can be construed as Scotland setting the pace - in fact I made the point this is partly predicated on the Scottish people deciding in the first place to apply  for membership (which they clearly may possibly not chose to do)

If Scotland achieves Independence.  Its highly unlikely. Anyway if they do then there should be a referendum for us to re join or not surely?  The SNP should not be running on a platform of re joining the EU as they may actually lose some votes as many SNP supporters voted to leave. 

[kila]

2 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

Your terribly aggressive ...anger management issues................ 😮 ffs big deal I misquoted you ffs 

 

[The Mighty Thor]

2 hours ago, kila said:

 

Scotland could sell England water in the future. As ridiculous as it sounds, droughts are going to be common place in the years ahead for large parts of England. Of course Westminster could build some reservoirs to help with stock but they won't!

 

Resources will be huge in the future. Renewable Power and water will be massive. Scotland has a big advantage in such things. 

 

 

[NANOJAMBO]

Just now, JamesM48 said:

If Scotland achieves Independence. 1 Its highly unlikely. 2 Anyway if they do then there should be a referendum for us to re join or not surely?  The SNP should not be running on a platform of re joining the EU as they may actually lose some votes as many SNP supporters voted to leave. 

1 Based on what criteria ? 

2 I've already answered that to another poster above. 

3 I don't have an opinion but I have already said that Scotland will have to face a tough question : IF it goes for independence then hand-in-hand with that is the question of being tied to a post-Brexit English economy or looking to the EU and it's 400 million market. Brexit will have to deliver because if it doesn't then there is the real potential for the SNP to strengthen any pro-EU debate by pointing to a potentially failing English economy. 

[JudyJudyJudy]

10 minutes ago, NANOJAMBO said:

1 Based on what criteria ? 

2 I've already answered that to another poster above. 

3 I don't have an opinion but I have already said that Scotland will have to face a tough question : IF it goes for independence then hand-in-hand with that is the question of being tied to a post-Brexit English economy or looking to the EU and it's 400 million market. Brexit will have to deliver because if it doesn't then there is the real potential for the SNP to strengthen any pro-EU debate by pointing to a potentially failing English economy. 

Sorry mate but the Independence question should only be that.  Like i said if the SNP include it in a manifesto it may put a lot of voters off.  Remember over a million voted to leave the EU.  The economic argument would have to be met for us to gain entry to the EU

[Ulysses]

3 hours ago, Smithee said:

 

Nope, its just a hurdle that unionists like to pretend is an unscalable wall.

 

It wouldn't be an impossible dream for Scotland to join the EU even if all the unionists pretend it is.

 

4 hours ago, kila said:

 

I think in an independence scenario Scotland would be in limbo - maybe it'd be like NI right now with their Brexit arrangement? Not quite a member but not quite fully out the door either.

 

Either way Brexit is far from over despite the deal and bells ringing out on the 1st January. In some ways, Brexit has only just begun...

 

 

 

One of the advantages of the EU-UK agreement, coupled with the NI Protocol and the agreement on Gibraltar is that it has all the ingredients needed to keep an independent Scotland out of any limbo if it left the United Kingdom.  An independent Scotland might, or might not, apply to join the EU, or to join the EEA in some other fashion.  That may take time, or it may not.  Pending that, Scotland would have a ready-made (some would say, oven-ready) framework for trading with the EU, a similar framework for trading with England, and if membership of the EEA becomes a live possibility any bumps and inconsistencies between the two would be ironed out by protocols and agreements similar to those for NI and Gibraltar.

 

2 hours ago, NANOJAMBO said:

My point couldn't be clearer and it's based on what I've read from a number of bloggers/politicians : Madrid/Barcelona will have no bearing on what happens re any application from Scotland, should there ever be one.  I don't ignore what happens there , it's simply not relevant here  - but I'm always willing to listen to the "other side". 

 

Why do people think the Spanish government would try to block an application from an independent Scotland?  Spain might be concerned about Scottish independence before the fact, but that's irrelevant because Scotland couldn't lodge a membership application to the EU unless and until it became independent.

[kila]

11 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

One of the advantages of the EU-UK agreement, coupled with the NI Protocol and the agreement on Gibraltar is that it has all the ingredients needed to keep an independent Scotland out of any limbo if it left the United Kingdom.  An independent Scotland might, or might not, apply to join the EU, or to join the EEA in some other fashion.  That may take time, or it may not.  Pending that, Scotland would have a ready-made (some would say, oven-ready) framework for trading with the EU, a similar framework for trading with England, and if membership of the EEA becomes a live possibility any bumps and inconsistencies between the two would be ironed out by protocols and agreements similar to those for NI and Gibraltar.

 

Why do people think the Spanish government would try to block an application from an independent Scotland?  Spain might be concerned about Scottish independence before the fact, but that's irrelevant because Scotland couldn't lodge a membership application to the EU unless and until it became independent.

 

 

I think for enough to vote for independence the EU would need to say they've left the light on for Scotland.

 

The EU knows Scotland voted to remain. MSPs recently passed legislation to keep Scottish law in line future EU regulations. I really think there will be sympathy for Scotland and a willingness from the EU to take it under its arm.

 

[Ulysses]

1 hour ago, kila said:

 

 

I think for enough to vote for independence the EU would need to say they've left the light on for Scotland.

 

The EU knows Scotland voted to remain. MSPs recently passed legislation to keep Scottish law in line future EU regulations. I really think there will be sympathy for Scotland and a willingness from the EU to take it under its arm.

 

 

Sorry to be harsh, but if people are waiting for encouragement from the EU (or anyone else) they probably haven't earned the right to self-determination.  It also would not be within the competence of the EU's institutions to promote constitutional change in the UK.  Even the Protocol on NI goes to torturous lengths to avoid that.

 

It doesn't matter whether an independent Scotland were to join the EU, the EEA, or stay outside; the EU-UK agreement (along with the side protocols) shows that Scotland would trade relatively smoothly whether in the EU or not.  The paperwork and procedures might get a bit more "sticky" depending on what agreements Scotland chose to reach, but if the arrangements are acceptable for all of the EU-27 and all of the UK there's no reason at all why they wouldn't work for Scotland.

 

On the other hand, if independence doesn't happen Scotland stays out of the EU and operates the agreement along with Wales and England.

[kila]

10 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

Sorry to be harsh, but if people are waiting for encouragement from the EU (or anyone else) they probably haven't earned the right to self-determination.  It also would not be within the competence of the EU's institutions to promote constitutional change in the UK.  Even the Protocol on NI goes to torturous lengths to avoid that.

 

It doesn't matter whether an independent Scotland were to join the EU, the EEA, or stay outside; the EU-UK agreement (along with the side protocols) shows that Scotland would trade relatively smoothly whether in the EU or not.  The paperwork and procedures might get a bit more "sticky" depending on what agreements Scotland chose to reach, but if the arrangements are acceptable for all of the EU-27 and all of the UK there's no reason at all why they wouldn't work for Scotland.

 

On the other hand, if independence doesn't happen Scotland stays out of the EU and operates the agreement along with Wales and England.

 

Will the EU and each leader always say no comment to a future independent Scotland being part of the EU? It'll be a discussion that'll be hard to avoid if IndyRef2 were to start gathering pace, and this summer might see the start of it.

 

 

[Ulysses]

1 hour ago, kila said:

 

Will the EU and each leader always say no comment to a future independent Scotland being part of the EU? It'll be a discussion that'll be hard to avoid if IndyRef2 were to start gathering pace, and this summer might see the start of it.

 

 

 

Countries usually make it a hard and fast diplomatic principle not to interfere in the domestic constitutional matters of other countries, and the EU has done likewise.  EU institutions have occasionally commented on domestic issues in member states, but that's only happened when the Union has feared some kind of conflict between a domestic action and the practice or principles of the EU constitution.

 

I think the Scottish Government (or the pro-Independence parties, if you prefer) would be making a strategic error if they tried to conflate independence with EU membership.  There's no need to do that, and the independence campaign should be on the basis that regardless of the opinions of political parties in an independent Scotland, it would be for the people to decide at a later date if Scotland should join the EU or what sort of relationship it should have with the EU (see Norway, Iceland and Switzerland for examples). 

 

This agreement is a winner for just about everybody in the UK, constitutionally speaking, including supporters of Scottish independence.  Regardless of whether Scotland chooses to stay in the UK or not, or subsequently to join the EU or not, the agreement pretty much sets up a "soft landing", relatively speaking.

[NANOJAMBO]

5 hours ago, Ulysses said:

 

 

 

One of the advantages of the EU-UK agreement, coupled with the NI Protocol and the agreement on Gibraltar is that it has all the ingredients needed to keep an independent Scotland out of any limbo if it left the United Kingdom.  An independent Scotland might, or might not, apply to join the EU, or to join the EEA in some other fashion.  That may take time, or it may not.  Pending that, Scotland would have a ready-made (some would say, oven-ready) framework for trading with the EU, a similar framework for trading with England, and if membership of the EEA becomes a live possibility any bumps and inconsistencies between the two would be ironed out by protocols and agreements similar to those for NI and Gibraltar.

 

 

Why do people think the Spanish government would try to block an application from an independent Scotland?  Spain might be concerned about Scottish independence before the fact, but that's irrelevant because Scotland couldn't lodge a membership application to the EU unless and until it became independent.

I didn't introduce it to the debate. My only comment on it , it seems to be something to cling to, in order  to downplay Scottish independence. As though some people want to convince themselves that Scottish independence  is somehow similar to a Spanish region seeking independence and that Spain would be hostile (to any Scottish request for membership) as a consequence. 

[Ulysses]

59 minutes ago, NANOJAMBO said:

I didn't introduce it to the debate. My only comment on it , it seems to be something to cling to, in order  to downplay Scottish independence. As though some people want to convince themselves that Scottish independence  is somehow similar to a Spanish region seeking independence and that Spain would be hostile (to any Scottish request for membership) as a consequence. 

 

 

Thanks.  Sorry if I suggested that you introduced it.  I've often seen it used as an argument in the way you've described it.  I can understand why the Spanish government wouldn't want to encourage separatism anywhere else in Europe for fear of encouraging it at home.  But that only applies when the subject is being debated, not when a country makes a decision.  If Scotland voted for independence the Spanish government couldn't really care less after that.  The Spanish didn't block either the Czech or Slovak Republics from becoming members, nor did they block Croatia.  Likewise, Spain hasn't blocked candidate status for Montenegro, North Macedonia or Serbia.

[Justin Z]