Brexit Deal agreed ( updated )

[Notts1874]

1 minute ago, Smithee said:

Can I recommend pornography? I reckon you'd love it.

Has she done some porn? Even better ??

[SwindonJambo]

And the shitshow goes on..  May's making a complete arse of herself. If her deal fails for a 3rd time as it surely will, surely it's time to walk for the sake of her own health if nothing else. EU now dictating to us, which will only harden the resolve of the hard brexiteers as will May's stupid speech last night.

 

Probably  a new PM soon. Please let it not be Leadsom or Baw Jaws.

 

I'm a bit uncomfortable about a 2nd referendum, and it would have to have a largish margin of victory in the opposite direction to be credible. 

[Unknown user]

1 minute ago, SwindonJambo said:

And the shitshow goes on..  May's making a complete arse of herself. If her deal fails for a 3rd time as it surely will, surely it's time to walk for the sake of her own health if nothing else. EU now dictating to us, which will only harden the resolve of the hard brexiteers as will May's stupid speech last night.

 

Probably  a new PM soon. Please let it not be Leadsom or Baw Jaws.

 

I'm a bit uncomfortable about a 2nd referendum, and it would have to have a largish margin of victory in the opposite direction to be credible. 

 

Could you be more specific?

[Jambos1983]

13 minutes ago, Notts1874 said:

I hope this goes on for as long as possible. Mainly as it keeps Katya Adler on my tv every day.

Have you been sleeping for a year? 

[Jambos1983]

15 minutes ago, Dannie Boy said:

 

Indeed. However if the momentum to revoke grows massively then it could well make a second referendum the best way out of this mess which would be the best thing IMO.

 

It would need over 17.4m UK eligible voters on the petition to be relevant. It's a remain vote trying to overturn the result of a referendum 

Edited March 22, 2019 by Jambos1983

[SwindonJambo]

5 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

Could you be more specific?

The Johnson geezer that used to be foreign secretary.

[Notts1874]

1 minute ago, Jambos1983 said:

Have you been sleeping for a year? 

Eh?

[Jambos1983]

Just now, Notts1874 said:

Eh?

Quoted the wrong reply. Apologies!

[Jambos1983]

19 minutes ago, Notts1874 said:

Not in Parliament.

It really has. Every option has. 

[Notts1874]

Just now, Jambos1983 said:

It really has. Every option has. 

There hasn't been a specific debate about revoking article 50 which is what the petition is asking.

[Jambos1983]

3 minutes ago, Notts1874 said:

There hasn't been a specific debate about revoking article 50 which is what the petition is asking.

?. Yeah they've never thought of that. Oh wait its literally been debated every day

[...a bit disco]

40 minutes ago, Notts1874 said:

I hope this goes on for as long as possible. Mainly as it keeps Katya Adler on my tv every day.

 

Katya Adler.

 

 

Oh yes.

[AlphonseCapone]

9 hours ago, hughesie27 said:

He explicitly said it would require a substantial change to the motion.

 

Surely just an extension isn't enough? That changes nothing.

 

It's more about the wording of motions. The 3rd iteration will make it clear what the consequences are, for example it might say, the house agrees to the agreed deal with the EU and an extension of article 50 to the 30th May to enact legal proceedings. 

 

Obviously I don't write Parliamentary motions so it won't sound like that but the bolded addition above will be what makes it sufficiently different that the speaker will allow it I think. 

[Jamboelite]

2 hours ago, Lord BJ said:

Mmm it’s hard to read this, however, i think we will ultimately see Mays deal fail and we will see a longer extension with the a new PM trying to reach a consensus across parliament which I suspect will lead to a softer Brexit.

 

Mays deal, I think, is dead on water as it stands. Her statement the other night was a massive miscalculation and appears to antagonised mp’s and had the opposite effect.

 

The house has pretty much ruled out a no deal and despite it appearing more likely the last few days, it’s not a position the vast majority of MP’s want. I think the two stage extension will give MP’s some confidence that they can go and get a long extension. 

 

Most are sensible enough, as are most of the electorate, to understand that an extension doesn’t mean the cancellation of Brexit. It’s just taking a bit of extra time to arrange a orderly transfer. The calls that a extension are undemocratic and in the face in referendum is ‘where the bear’ stuff; distraction tactics. 

 

I suspect Mays deal will resign after her deal fails, this will be part of agreeement for a longer extension. Who the tories next leader being key to the new direction, on balance I suspect they will elect a more moderate Tory as the brexiteees are viewed more toxic than most and a no deal could have massive implications for their electability of the future. We will see the house reach broad agreement on a deal or direction to go: 

 

May was a tad more conciliatory in her tone last night and I think part of that is because she knows her statement back fired and a long extension is then the most likely and least damaging  outcome right now.

 

I think this is very much best case scenario but i dont disagree that this would be seem the most sensible outcome.

 

Who takes over and based on her personality would she walk?

 

She has made her deal as toxic as it could possibly be, from those that wanted to remain right through to the hard line eurosceptics and members of the EU.

 

It takes will and commitment to piss that many people off across all opinions so well done her.

 

It was always going to be difficult to get a transition deal through but from the off her tone and stance with everyone has been all wrong.

Edited March 22, 2019 by Jamboelite

[hughesie27]

Check out @richardpbacon’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/richardpbacon/status/1108878401144868865?s=09

[Mikey1874]

2 hours ago, Lord BJ said:

Mmm it’s hard to read this, however, i think we will ultimately see Mays deal fail and we will see a longer extension with the a new PM trying to reach a consensus across parliament which I suspect will lead to a softer Brexit.

 

That does seem to be what the EU did yesterday.

 

Showing they are in a stronger position unlike the fantasists who said 'keep No Deal to force EU to change'. It's the other way round.

 

But how that happens in Parliament is still unclear. 

[The Doc]

May won’t go of her own accord.

 

She’s completely deranged and devoid of any self awareness.

 

The decision may be made for her but I’d be very surprised if she stepped down.

 

That time has long passed.

 

[Victorian]

May will carry on as long as the govenment has full control of the house business agenda.    But if it gets taken away from them,    not only will it be another unprecedented embarrassment but it kill off the last remaining chances of her finally delivering Brexit on her own terms (or the impression of her own terms).      I can't see any way she would continue then,    or even want to.

 

This has been about her delivering a successful conclusion on her terms.     Forced to follow another path or sidelined while parliament takes over both equal the same thing.    An obvious and public departure from her plan.     Abject failure.     

Edited March 22, 2019 by Victorian

[Victorian]

The irony is that she's been steered and worked up the arse by every faction in the Tory party.      She's never had control in the party so she compensates by being a dictator in parliament.

[Boris]

23 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

 

I think she would little option but to go and suspect, she will do so for the good of the ‘party’. Particulary after a third defeat on parliament on her deal and I think the EU will insist on a fresh tact for any extension and she can’t be part of that.

 

Who would replace her, I’m not sure I suspect you would see a battle between a ERG type and the moderate in the party. I suspect a more moderate would win out, but certainly someone who would need to bring parliament together. Thar ain’t going to be a characteur type torie like bojo, JRM or Leadsom as I think don’t think in the current climate those types would be all that popular at the polls. Tories want power over all else I believe.

 

The people in favour of no deal exit are ultimately the minority in the tories and they will become even more of a minority when we’re in the land of extensions. 

 

Someone like Rudd or maybe a camera friendly outsider would be my guess. I suspect that leader will effectively hand over brexit to a consensus in parliament and try and distance the tories from the May disaster and try and rebuild the tories image for the next election. 

 

May needs to go in the near future for the good of the Country, her party and her own self. I think that will be hammered home to after a 3rd defeat.

 

If she did resign, you would, as you say, see a battle between the Tory party factions.  BJ may see it as his time (riffing on his Churchillian destiny fantasy) and may well just get the support of the party membership.  But whether he would get enough support from the parliamentary party to get to the last two and thus the membership vote, would have to be seen.

 

[Victorian]

BJ will not be party leader.     Even in a perennial nest of vipers like the Tory party,    his toxicity and arsepiecenicity are unrivalled.     Too extreme,    even for them.     Rudd has a bit of sense and presents well,    but possibly isn't popular enough amongst the membership.     Leadsom's brand of upper middle class elitist protectionism will appeal to the neo-blue rinse brigade.

[Victorian]

Good point made by someone earlier.

 

That May's absolute refusal to allow anyone else within the UK parliament to have an input has led to her handing over control to the EU and it's powerful state leaders.    What an irony when considered in the context of the whole narrative of laws,   destiny and sovereignty.      An insight into the zero value May has for her colleagues.

Edited March 22, 2019 by Victorian

[Francis Albert]

12 hours ago, Pans Jambo said:

Revoke article 50 petition at almost 2 million as of 2230 tonight. Most signatures on the government petition website ever. 

 

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

 

As I understand the way Remainer arithmetic works that makes it about 2m who want to revoke and  31m who don't.

 

[AlphonseCapone]

4 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

As I understand the way Remainer arithmetic works that makes it about 2m who want to revoke and  31m who don't.

 

 

do you ever make a contribution to this thread that isn't snide? 

[LeftBack]

40 minutes ago, Victorian said:

BJ will not be party leader.     Even in a perennial nest of vipers like the Tory party,    his toxicity and arsepiecenicity are unrivalled.     Too extreme,    even for them.     Rudd has a bit of sense and presents well,    but possibly isn't popular enough amongst the membership.     Leadsom's brand of upper middle class elitist protectionism will appeal to the neo-blue rinse brigade.

I agree about BJ...but if he by some miracle was it would be, in my opinion, the greatest possible  boost for the Independence movement. I dont even think Sturgeon would have to ask for another referendum, Hadrian's wall would be rebuilt by the following Monday.

[Costanza]

 

[Francis Albert]

32 minutes ago, AlphonseCapone said:

 

do you ever make a contribution to this thread that isn't snide? 

Do you ever reply to a post without insulting the poster? Well obviously yes, when the poster in question shares your opinion.

I was just making the point others have made - the petition is silly and even sillier is the attention the media is giving it.

[Cade]

Govt doubles down on May's "MP's are the enemy of the people" statement.

[Cade]

As long as any of those petitions receives over 10,000 signature then Parliament is forced to debate it.

 

After that the scale of the signatures means little other than to perhaps add weight to the seriousness of the debate.

 

Anybody can raise any petition they want on that site (you should browse it, some of them are properly bonkers).

[AlphonseCapone]

34 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Do you ever reply to a post without insulting the poster? Well obviously yes, when the poster in question shares your opinion.

I was just making the point others have made - the petition is silly and even sillier is the attention the media is giving it.

 

Quite regularly. I also didn't insult you, I asked you a question. 

 

You weren't just making that point though, you were making a snide comment about some people's arithmetic. Had you just made a point about the petition and your view on it's validity then we wouldn't be having this conversation. 

[Francis Albert]

1 minute ago, AlphonseCapone said:

 

Quite regularly. I also didn't insult you, I asked you a question. 

 

You weren't just making that point though, you were making a snide comment about some people's arithmetic. Had you just made a point about the petition and your view on it's validity then we wouldn't be having this conversation. 

The point wasn't really about anyone's arithmetic was it?. It was about some people's double standards.

And your question was not really a genuine question was it? It  was a rhetorical question. A slightly insulting one.

[Mikey1874]

Numbers are used all the time to justify positions.

 

17.4 million isn't going  to be trumped. It was an impressive turnout.

 

As is now 3 million plus for a petition. 

 

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

[Taffin]

The petition is a joke.

 

Taken from their description on it: 

 

The government repeatedly claims exiting the EU is 'the will of the people'. We need to put a stop to this claim by proving the strength of public support now, for remaining in the EU. A People's Vote may not happen - so vote now.

 

The government repeatedly claim that exiting the EU is the will of the people because, sadly, that was the will of the people. Leave won the vote. 

 

The only frustrating thing is that they haven't just got on with it. 

[Jamboelite]

22 minutes ago, Taffin said:

The petition is a joke.

 

Taken from their description on it: 

 

The government repeatedly claims exiting the EU is 'the will of the people'. We need to put a stop to this claim by proving the strength of public support now, for remaining in the EU. A People's Vote may not happen - so vote now.

 

The government repeatedly claim that exiting the EU is the will of the people because, sadly, that was the will of the people. Leave won the vote. 

 

The only frustrating thing is that they haven't just got on with it. 

I think the vote is trying to indicate based on this cluster**** it is no longer the will of the people.

 

And it is absolutely not the only frustrating thing on this 2 year shambles.

Edited March 22, 2019 by Jamboelite

[Costanza]

Im still waiting for the Government or one of the prominent Leave campaigners to justify:

 

A) Why bringing back the same Withdrawal agreement without material change is acceptable but another referendum when clearly the terms of exit and the implications of Brexit are clearer, isn't.

B ) Why a no deal Brexit wouldn't be anything other than disastrous for the economy 

Edited March 22, 2019 by Costanza

[Jamboelite]

1 minute ago, Costanza said:

Im still waiting for the Government or one of the prominent Leave campaigners to justify:

 

A) Why bringing back the same Withdrawal agreement without material change is acceptable but another referendum when clearly the terms of exit and the implications of Brexit are clearer, isn't.

B ) Why a no deal Brexit wouldn't be anything other than disastrous for the economy 

Good luck waiting for that mate.

[Taffin]

9 minutes ago, Jamboelite said:

I think the vote is trying to indicate based on this cluster**** it is no longer the will of the people.

 

And it is absolutely not the only frustrating thing on this 2 year shambles.

 

This was always going to be the play out of voting leave though; if people wanted it then I don't get why they wouldn't want it now. It was never going to be anything other than a cluster****. It's a high price but it's the price people were happy to pay when voting 

 

The petition is just sour grapes by remainers who can't let it go. We lost, accept that and should now move on...and that's why it's frustrating because we can't move on until it's delivered. If the deal wasn't considered good enough we should have left next week with no deal. Dragging it out forever is just prolonging everyone's frustration.

[Notts1874]

Indicative votes it is then when May's deal fails again. ERG are raging as they know they are a busted flush.

[JamboX2]

3 minutes ago, Notts1874 said:

Indicative votes it is then when May's deal fails again. ERG are raging as they know they are a busted flush.

 

Overplayed their hand. Ignored everything they said in the referendum:

 

Mogg - "I'd back a confirmatory referendum"

Paterson - "Only a madman would leave the Single Market"

Fox - "We can replicate all our trade deals before we leave." 

 

Hope we end up with a Norway type arrangement now.

[Mikey1874]

7 minutes ago, Notts1874 said:

Indicative votes it is then when May's deal fails again. ERG are raging as they know they are a busted flush.

 

7 possible options 

 

But no time to debate them properly 

 

[Mikey1874]

Meanwhile

 

 

[SwindonJambo]

11 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

Meanwhile

 

 

 

The most recent Indy Poll, conducted by Survation earlier this month showed a  lead of 6 or 7% pro Union.  A lot of undecideds though, about 16-17%.

[Cade]

40 years of constant pissing and moaning and STILL nobody has a clear vision of how to exit the EU or what do do after that.

 

It's astonishing that nobody has actually thought any of this through.

[JamboX2]

2 minutes ago, Cade said:

40 years of constant pissing and moaning and STILL nobody has a clear vision of how to exit the EU or what do do after that.

 

It's astonishing that nobody has actually thought any of this through.

 

The answer is simple: Norway +.

 

It's all that is left frankly.

[Cade]

Norway + won't stand.

A couple of years ago, the EU released this handy infographic which shows that all of the UK's mental red lines leave us with basically no options other than something similar to Canada.

 

Since then, the EU has signed more big deals, most notably with Japan and even that included a change in the Japanese constitution to allow more foreign workers into the country.

Edited March 22, 2019 by Cade

[Francis Albert]

1 hour ago, Jamboelite said:

I think the vote is trying to indicate based on this cluster**** it is no longer the will of the people.

 

And it is absolutely not the only frustrating thing on this 2 year shambles.

What vote? It is a petition not a vote. Even polls/votes on JKB offer alternatives. Should Levein be sacked. Vote yes or no or don't know. Not should Levein be sacked? Vote yes.

[AlphonseCapone]

2 hours ago, Francis Albert said:

The point wasn't really about anyone's arithmetic was it?. It was about some people's double standards.

And your question was not really a genuine question was it? It  was a rhetorical question. A slightly insulting one.

 

You're right it wasn't but that is what I am getting at, just actually state your point rather than trying be smart about it. 

 

My question was probably more rhetorical, though it wasn't intended to be insulting and I still don't believe it was but if you've taken that way then apologies. 

[Victorian]

Been here before.

 

1. Government indicates possibility of free vote indicative votes in the event of MV3 being pied.    Implied message to leavers is that there is one last chance to get meaningful Brexit.  Vote for deal or parliament takes over and you'll get a soft Brexit or no Brexit.

 

2.   MV3 pied anyway.

 

3.  Government does NOT allow free vote indicative votes after all.    Backbench proxy acting for government puts forward amendment that changes indicative votes.   Government whips against indicative votes on the basis that they are not what government proposed.     

[Mikey1874]

44 minutes ago, JamboX2 said:

 

The answer is simple: Norway +.

 

It's all that is left frankly.

 

That is what there is a majority in Parliament for. Basically Labour's plan albeit of course there are challenges. 

 

The path would be to agree the current withdrawal deal but change the political declaration on the future relationship.

 

It suits the EU. And matches Labour talks with EU (as official Opposition gets to talk about it's plans) over last 2 years including this week.

 

But getting it to actually happen is an entirely different matter. 

[Mikey1874]

1 minute ago, Victorian said:

Been here before.

 

1. Government indicates possibility of free vote indicative votes in the event of MV3 being pied.    Implied message to leavers is that there is one last chance to get meaningful Brexit.  Vote for deal or parliament takes over and you'll get a soft Brexit or no Brexit.

 

2.   MV3 pied anyway.

 

3.  Government does NOT allow free vote indicative votes after all.    Backbench proxy acting for government puts forward amendment that changes indicative votes.   Government whips against indicative votes on the basis that they are not what government proposed.     

 

Leading to No Deal on 12 April. 

 

Via 3 more votes on the Deal. 

Edited March 22, 2019 by Mikey1874