Cooncil Elections

[Dawnrazor]

Meanwhile in Sturgeons patch

Well that was uncomfortable!!!

I do think though that the people of the Govenhill Ghetto are being a tad unreasonable, don't they know She has independence to deliver?

Freeeeeeeeeeeeedooooooooommmmmm!

[Mikey1874]

Being thick C, D, E types of underclass voters as you imagine, I wonder what the final number of SNP votes might have been if you added in the spoilt papers.

As above also are you saying people in lower income groups are less intelligent? Not my experience. My family and extended lot were all really bright. Mining families and poverty is just circumstances.

 

The main problem with this election is people not getting the 1, 2, 3 listing. The vast majority of ballots that were rejected were where people put 2 xs or listed two candidates with the same number. Only the very odd boaby or message.

[Space Mackerel]

As above also are you saying people in lower income groups are less intelligent? Not my experience. My family and extended lot were all really bright. Mining families and poverty is just circumstances.

 

The main problem with this election is people not getting the 1, 2, 3 listing. The vast majority of ballots that were rejected were where people put 2 xs or listed two candidates with the same number. Only the very odd boaby or message.

Deeside is the one who calls lower income people stupid, not me.

[Seymour M Hersh]

Sturgeon nails it:

 

The Tories? share of the vote in Scotland was no better than Labour?s in England, which was regarded as a ?disaster? for Jeremy Corbyn, the first minister said.

 

What was that share in the previous local elections?

[deesidejambo]

Deeside is the one who calls lower income people stupid, not me.

Show me where I said that or retract. I didn't.

[Cade]

What was that share in the previous local elections?

13.3% is the data for 2012

 

I've not seen the data for the scottish tories in 2017 yet.

 

Labour (UK wide) picked up 27%

[markphmfc]

Vested up for the British state a few times. Oh how times change with a little bit knowledge, wisdom and age.

Cook by any chance? Spacey Rybeck. I'd put money on it you didn't see front line action.

[Seymour M Hersh]

13.3% is the data for 2012

 

I've not seen the data for the scottish tories in 2017 yet.

 

Labour (UK wide) picked up 27%

 

So possibly at worst doubled their share. Hardly a disaster is it. Nippy trying desperately to put a negative spin on a resurgent Scottish Conservative party and failing. Rather like she is doing for the people of Scotland, failing them.

[JamboX2]

The so called core is much smaller than it used to be then. That can't be a good thing for the party. The fact that many labour voters have switched to conservative is something that I could never have imagined 20 years ago.

 

Labour have lost their way trying to please too many different kinds of voters.

On your last point - all parties seeking to govern under the Scottish and UK electoral systems need to do this appeal to the most people. It's hardly new to balance principles with the will to govern. The SNP need to temper independence with a will to govern.

 

Voters have changed as society has. We are less so a nation of predominantly working class, mass industrialised workers based mainly in the big cities. The bonds and communities Labour represented for decades have changed. Their middle class voters are increasingly drawn to the centre rather than the centre left.

 

Labour needs to change to meet a changing nation now.

 

The fact it hasn't has helped it bleed votes away. And I'd argue it needs to start from basics and focus on developing a vision for Scotland and the UK or it'll be lost to fighting old battles.

[Bowmans_Boot]

So possibly at worst doubled their share. Hardly a disaster is it. Nippy trying desperately to put a negative spin on a resurgent Scottish Conservative party and failing. Rather like she is doing for the people of Scotland, failing them.

It demonstrates that they improved massively but came from such a poor starting point that they still performed worse than the laughing stock of Labour.

[Thunderstruck]

Ruth, Kezia, wee Wullie R, you, Deeside, Thundergob, i8hobo were adamant that this was a time to send a message to the SNP, none of us were saying this message.

 

All that's happened is the Yoons have re-arranged the deck chairs on the ship. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

26 percent and you've maxed out you're core Tory voters.

I find that in poor taste. There is banter and there is going beyond the bounds.

 

I know it has been a setback but do try and be civil.

[Rudy T]

What remains a fact is the party who only a few years ago were virtually dead in Scotland have come back from nowhere. It's without doubt a vote against independence. Now the labour voters have witness their party die, and it's a foregone conclusion the tory party will be in power, many will vote tory to stop the SNP mafia railroading us into another referendum.

[maroonlegions]

It demonstrates that they improved massively but came from such a poor starting point that they still performed worse than the laughing stock of Labour.

Still believe that the Tory "mantra" that is  outside of their anti independent and pro Unionist mantas  will be rejected AGAIN by large numbers of the Scottish electoral.

 

Corbyn is the main thorn in Labours ability to sustain any real threat and alternative to a Tory one party state. He needs to chuck it.

[Cade]

So possibly at worst doubled their share. Hardly a disaster is it. Nippy trying desperately to put a negative spin on a resurgent Scottish Conservative party and failing. Rather like she is doing for the people of Scotland, failing them.

The point is that the Tories are only attracting voters from Labour, whilst the SNP vote remains intact and way, way ahead.

[deesidejambo]

The point is that the Tories are only attracting voters from Labour, whilst the SNP vote remains intact and way, way ahead.

Yes still only at 40% due to the split of the Union votes.

 

The objective of the SNP is Indy. Not to attend Westminster or to run Scotland at Holyrood or Councils. The more they do that, the less likely they will get Indy as voters are happy with the current setup.

 

It doesn't matter if the SNP get every single Westminster vote and run every single Council. They are still as far away from Indy as in 2014.

[deesidejambo]

I find that in poor taste. There is banter and there is going beyond the bounds.

 

I know it has been a setback but do try and be civil.

He is hurting.

 

And his 26% is wrong due to the Independent votes not being removed.

 

Wait till he sees the SNP percentage though.

[Sraman]

He is hurting.

 

And his 26% is wrong due to the Independent votes not being removed.

 

Wait till he sees the SNP percentage though.

 

Why would you remove perfectly good votes for Independent candidates to work out percentages of the whole vote? You're at it.

[deesidejambo]

Why would you remove perfectly good votes for Independent candidates to work out percentages of the whole vote? You're at it.

Not correct. You remove the Independents to get a true picture of the support for the parties because at the GE there will be no Independent candidates.

 

Anyway no problem, leave the raw data - it also means the SNP percentage will be lower than actual.

 

Or do we remove the Indys from SNP but not the Tory calculation?

[manaliveits105]

Sturgeon has become the Corbyn of SNP 

[SwindonJambo]

Still believe that the Tory "mantra" that is outside of their anti independent and pro Unionist mantas will be rejected AGAIN by large numbers of the Scottish electoral.

 

Corbyn is the main thorn in Labours ability to sustain any real threat and alternative to a Tory one party state. He needs to chuck it.

Agreed, but the Momentum organisation have such a grip of the Labour Party that you cannot discount the possibility that he'll simply be replaced by someone similar, continuing the destruction of the Labour Party as a credible party of government. They're like the Mafia, with a big say on selection of candidates, which will prevent moderate centrists from even standing. Labour could easily just regress to bring a pressure group, carrying the support of the sizeable 'vote for anything in a red rosette' hard core vote. Very worrying times.

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

Sturgeon nails it:

 

The Tories? share of the vote in Scotland was no better than Labour?s in England, which was regarded as a ?disaster? for Jeremy Corbyn, the first minister said.

 

Can't tell who's more thick, her or her disciples.

[HaymarketJambo]

Sturgeon has become the Corbyn of SNP 

 

How?

[i8hibsh]

So let me get this straight...

 

SNP need a huge swing in votes in their favour to get their dream. SNP votes are declining and it was a good day.

 

 

Er ok then.

[deesidejambo]

So let me get this straight...

 

SNP need a huge swing in votes in their favour to get their dream. SNP votes are declining and it was a good day.

 

 

Er ok then.

They are not the smartest.    The interesting thing is now what does Sturgeon do?  Plough on with Indy support nowhere near what she needs, or delay till later?   Yesterday she said she will continue on with IndyRef2 so lets get things done and dusted.

[Sraman]

Not correct. You remove the Independents to get a true picture of the support for the parties because at the GE there will be no Independent candidates.

 

Anyway no problem, leave the raw data - it also means the SNP percentage will be lower than actual.

 

Or do we remove the Indys from SNP but not the Tory calculation?

 

 

Yes it is correct. You can't take out independents to make anyone look better than they actually are, not the Tories or the SNP or anyone else for that matter. As for a comparison to the GE it's impossible to do that from a local election using STV rather than FPTP but you bash on with your ridiculous spin if that's what makes you happy.

[deesidejambo]

Yes it is correct. You can't take out independents to make anyone look better than they actually are, not the Tories or the SNP or anyone else for that matter. As for a comparison to the GE it's impossible to do that from a local election using STV rather than FPTP but you bash on with your ridiculous spin if that's what makes you happy.

No problem.  Lets leave the Independent voters in.  Will put the SNP below 40% so fine with me!   

 

And the STV first preference votes are used by analysts to get an indication of voter intent at a GE as its pretty obvious that SNP supporters will choose an SNP candidate as first preference, as will the other voters to their preferred parties.  Its pretty normal to do this and will be done by the analysts once the first preference data is released.

 

But feel free to ignore it once the data comes out - it sinks Indy so best you ignore it.

[Bowmans_Boot]

Yes still only at 40% due to the split of the Union votes.

 

The objective of the SNP is Indy. Not to attend Westminster or to run Scotland at Holyrood or Councils. The more they do that, the less likely they will get Indy as voters are happy with the current setup.

 

It doesn't matter if the SNP get every single Westminster vote and run every single Council. They are still as far away from Indy as in 2014.

You are completely simplyfying these local council elections to make them all about independence (as did Ruth Davidson). They were actually there to, surprise, surprise, elect local councils.

 

I do not believe that every single Labour supporter is a No voter nor that every single SNP voter is a Yes. Life isnt that simple, believe it or not. I know Labour voters who voted Yes and vice verca for SNP.

[deesidejambo]

You are completely simplyfying these local council elections to make them all about independence (as did Ruth Davidson). They were actually there to, surprise, surprise, elect local councils.

 

I do not believe that every single Labour supporter is a No voter nor that every single SNP voter is a Yes. Life isnt that simple, believe it or not. I know Labour voters who voted Yes and vice verca for SNP.

Of course I accept that, but at the same time the Council first preference votes are a reasonable indication of what party a voter will vote for in a GE.

 

I always said its an indication but it wont be far off.   SNP supporters vote SNP in Council Elections and vote SNP in GE.  Tories do the same.  Labour do the same.   I can see voters switching between Tory/LibDem/Labour but I think people switching to and from SNP will be limited.

 

Your pal Spacey is quoting the Tories at 26% and nobody objects to that.  But when it turns out that the SNP are less than 40% using exactly the same data you don't appear to like it.

 

The reason I (and analysts) remove the Independent first preference votes is to get an indication of the likely voting preferences in the GE.

 

Anyway, ignore it all if you wish.  I bet a pint the SNP vote on June 8th is around 40%.  In fact two pints.

[Sraman]

No problem.  Lets leave the Independent voters in.  Will put the SNP below 40% so fine with me!   

 

And the STV first preference votes are used by analysts to get an indication of voter intent at a GE as its pretty obvious that SNP supporters will choose an SNP candidate as first preference, as will the other voters to their preferred parties.  Its pretty normal to do this and will be done by the analysts once the first preference data is released.

 

But feel free to ignore it once the data comes out - it sinks Indy so best you ignore it.

 

 

It's not really all that obvious though is it? If your party of choice fields a candidate in your area from the other side of the country then it would be complete folly to vote for them and you would probably end up voting for an independent/local candidate instead. Someone who knows about the area and it's issues. 

 

Anyway, I look forward to that data being published but won't read too much into it.

[i8hibsh]

You are completely simplyfying these local council elections to make them all about independence (as did Ruth Davidson). They were actually there to, surprise, surprise, elect local councils.

 

I do not believe that every single Labour supporter is a No voter nor that every single SNP voter is a Yes. Life isnt that simple, believe it or not. I know Labour voters who voted Yes and vice verca for SNP.

wtf?

 

I would say 99.9% of every single person who votes SNP at anytime want indy. Seriously the clue is in the ****ing name.

[deesidejambo]

It's not really all that obvious though is it? If your party of choice fields a candidate in your area from the other side of the country then it would be complete folly to vote for them and you would probably end up voting for an independent/local candidate instead. Someone who knows about the area and it's issues. 

 

Anyway, I look forward to that data being published but won't read too much into it.

OK no problem.    The real measure will be on June 8th.   Pint says SNP end up around 40% based on the Council first preference data.

[deesidejambo]

wtf?

 

I would say 99.9% of every single person who votes SNP at anytime want indy. Seriously the clue is in the ******* name.

Actually no.   Poll data says a number of voters vote for SNP to represent them at Westminster or Holyrood but wont vote for Indy.  That is why SNP polled higher percentage in the recent GE and Holyrood elections than the 45% in the IndyRef.  The delta is around 5-10%.

 

The reason for this is some people are happy for SNP to be an effective opposition in Westminster as opposed to an Independent Scotland.  

 

I personally would be happy to vote for Callum McCaig in my Constituency as he is doing a decent job imo.     But that does not mean I want Scotland to be Independent.

 

But thanks to IndyRef2 being called I will vote Tory to boot him out.  Well done Nicola.

[Bowmans_Boot]

wtf?

 

I would say 99.9% of every single person who votes SNP at anytime want indy. Seriously the clue is in the ******* name.

I do know people in that category. They liked their policies and the way they were running but didnt want to leave the UK. Politics isnt all black and white, you know.

 

Do you think every single Labour/Lib Dem voter in Scotland votes No? Seriously?

[Bowmans_Boot]

Actually no. Poll data says a number of voters vote for SNP to represent them at Westminster or Holyrood but wont vote for Indy. That is why SNP polled higher percentage in the recent GE and Holyrood elections than the 45% in the IndyRef. The delta is around 5-10%.

 

The reason for this is some people are happy for SNP to be an effective opposition in Westminster as opposed to an Independent Scotland.

 

Exactly.

[jack D and coke]

UK Would be much closer to 0 deficit if it were for out part in it.. We should raise taxes to pay for our additional spent on Nicolas vote buying policies.. But we couldn't do that could we.. Would draw to much of a lens on the reality when people question why.. Would cost too many votes.. SNP will save all that nastiness for post independence..

Good lord....

[Sraman]

OK no problem.    The real measure will be on June 8th.   Pint says SNP end up around 40% based on the Council first preference data.

 

Do you have a link to that data you are basing your figure on?

[Bowmans_Boot]

Of course I accept that, but at the same time the Council first preference votes are a reasonable indication of what party a voter will vote for in a GE.

 

I always said its an indication but it wont be far off. SNP supporters vote SNP in Council Elections and vote SNP in GE. Tories do the same. Labour do the same. I can see voters switching between Tory/LibDem/Labour but I think people switching to and from SNP will be limited.

 

Your pal Spacey is quoting the Tories at 26% and nobody objects to that. But when it turns out that the SNP are less than 40% using exactly the same data you don't appear to like it.

 

The reason I (and analysts) remove the Independent first preference votes is to get an indication of the likely voting preferences in the GE.

 

Anyway, ignore it all if you wish. I bet a pint the SNP vote on June 8th is around 40%. In fact two pints.

Ill take that bet ?

[deesidejambo]

Ill take that bet ?

And some crisps.

[Space Mackerel]

Why would you remove perfectly good votes for Independent candidates to work out percentages of the whole vote? You're at it.

He used to write favourable PR friendly articles dressed as spin for the Fife Echo. He can turn any set of facts around.

[Bowmans_Boot]

And some crisps.

Haggis flavour.

[Sraman]

He used to write favourable PR friendly articles dressed as spin for the Fife Echo. He can turn any set of facts around.

 

 

If he leaves out votes for Independent candidates to make his position look more favourable for this it makes you wonder if he left the oil out of his other calculations.

[deesidejambo]

Do you have a link to that data you are basing your figure on?

I thought you said you didnt agree with this method?

 

Anyway the first preference percentages are not released yet (although Spacey seems to have it as he knows the Tories are at 26%).

 

i'm basing my assertion on the GE poll data which has the Tories forecast for the GE in Scotland at 28% with the SNP at around 40%.  If my memory is correct Labour are around 18% but I would need to check that.   Given that Spacey knows the Tories are as 26% from the Council preferences then its reasonable to conclude that the poll data is similar to the Council results, hence my estimate of 40%

 

But you are at liberty to ignore it and put the SNP at 60% for June!

[deesidejambo]

He used to write favourable PR friendly articles dressed as spin for the Fife Echo. He can turn any set of facts around.

The East Fife Mail.  Get it right.

[Space Mackerel]

If he leaves out votes for Independent candidates to make his position look more favourable for this it makes you wonder if he left the oil out of his other calculations.

I like Deeside, he's a harmless wee soul lost in life. He actually votes for the Yoons because his wife would go all teary eyed at the thought of not being able to watch the Eurovision Song Contest again under the Union Flag :-/

[deesidejambo]

If he leaves out votes for Independent candidates to make his position look more favourable for this it makes you wonder if he left the oil out of his other calculations.

Silly boy - it also makes the SNP more favourable.    But lets leave them in.  Your choice.

[deesidejambo]

I like Deeside, he's a harmless wee soul lost in life. He actually votes for the Yoons because his wife would go all teary eyed at the thought of not being able to watch the Eurovision Song Contest again under the Union Flag :-/

At least I have a wife.

 

Whens Eurovision anyway?   Are Scotland in it?

[jack D and coke]

I like Deeside, he's a harmless wee soul lost in life. He actually votes for the Yoons because his wife would go all teary eyed at the thought of not being able to watch the Eurovision Song Contest again under the Union Flag :-/

In seriousness though that argument that my wife is English or Welsh or whatever is ludicrous. Would it mean she'd be a pyoor foreigner in scoatland and shed huv tae go hame and that likes!??!

Hilarious argument.

[deesidejambo]

In seriousness though that argument that my wife is English or Welsh or whatever is ludicrous. Would it mean she'd be a pyoor foreigner in scoatland and shed huv tae go hame and that likes!??!

Hilarious argument.

Ach give her a break.      But she is a lifelong LibDem who is also going to vote Tory in June.

 

 

Well done Nicola.

[Space Mackerel]

In seriousness though that argument that my wife is English or Welsh or whatever is ludicrous. Would it mean she'd be a pyoor foreigner in scoatland and shed huv tae go hame and that likes!??!

Hilarious argument.

Never mind the big economic or social arguments for and against eh?

 

I just want to be British!!!!! End off!!!! You hear me!!!!

[deesidejambo]

Never mind the big economic or social arguments for and against eh?

 

I just want to be British!!!!! End off!!!! You hear me!!!!

 

Indeed.  You will vote SNP no matter what.     So you are no different.