Indy Ref Part Deux

[Space Mackerel]

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear. [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]

 

Spain just vetoed the U.K over Brexit and Gibraltar and any future deals with a press release.

 

What were you Yoons saying about Scotland joining the EU again?

 

Wee Ginger Dug, his take on it.

 

 

Petard, by, hoist, own, your. Arrange these words into a well known phrase or saying. It?s been a bad day for the Unionist parties. Remember how all those Unionist parties and their supporters were screaming to the rafters that there would be a Spanish veto? Well it turns out that they were right. It?s just that it?s not an independent Scotland that will be subject to a Spanish veto, it?s the UK?s Brexit. That?s what comes of giving Spain ideas about vetos.

 

The EU?s official reply to Theresa May?s Brexit letter has been received, and in paragraph 22 it says ?After the United Kingdom leaves the Union, no agreement between the EU and the United Kingdom may apply to the territory of Gibraltar without agreement between the Kingdom of Spain and the United Kingdom.?

 

This paragraph gives Spain what it said it wanted prior to Brexit, but which was ignored by a Unionist media that was far more interested in trumpeting a non-existent threat to veto an independent Scotland. It gives Spain an explicit veto power over any Brexit agreement that includes Gibraltar. That Spain was going to seek this explicit veto power was obvious to anyone who was paying attention. That doesn?t include much of the British media, and particularly not the Brexiteer branch which is now howling with outrage that their plans to take the UK into a dystopian neo-conservative tax haven have just run into a Spanish veto threat.

 

According to some reports today in the British media, the veto power that Spain now has to veto any Brexit deal that includes Gibraltar has come as a surprise. As I type this, the announcer on Sky News introduced a Brexiteer commentator and said that the Spanish veto seems to have caught a lot of analysts off guard. But it?s only come as a surprise to British nationalists who weren?t paying attention, and who were desperately trying to spin any statement from a Spanish official into a blow for Nicola Sturgeon while at the same time ignoring the things that the Spanish government was explicitly saying. Spain had loudly advertised its desire to seek a veto over Gibraltar, and it was very clear to anyone who had been following the statements of Spanish politicians instead of relying on what was filtered through the pages of the Express or the Telegraph.

 

The Spanish veto over Gibraltar won?t come as a surprise to anyone who?s been following this blog. Back in July last year I pointed out in this blog that Spain was going to veto any Brexit that included Gibraltar. Wee Ginger Dug 1, Metrocommentariat 0. I noted that the then Spanish foreign minister had stated that Spain would have the right to veto any Brexit deal including Gibraltar and that he said Spain would make it ?clear that Gibraltar does not belong to the UK?. But none of the Unionist media outlets were interested, it didn?t suit their narrative that it was only an independent Scotland that needed to be worried about Spain.

 

In the cosmic scheme of things, Spain isn?t really particularly concerned about Scotland or Scottish independence. There is considerable sympathy for Scotland in Spain, even amongst people who are viscerally opposed to Catalan independence. Spanish people know that Scotland was an independent state for almost a thousand years before it merged with the Kingdom of England to form the UK. Scotland was in fact an independent state long before the Spanish state existed. In Spain?s view, Scottish independence can be managed, and as I?ve written numerous times in this blog before, vetoing Scottish membership of the EU would undermine the argument Spain has consistently made against permitting Catalan self-determination. Following Brexit, the Spanish government has made clear what some of us have been saying for a long time, they will not veto Scottish membership of the EU if Scotland becomes independent legally and constitutionally.

 

On the other hand, Spain is very interested indeed in the status of Gibraltar. The UK will not be permitted to waltz off into the Brexit sunset without coming to an agreement with Spain over the position of Gibraltar. The decision of voters in England and Wales to give majority support to Brexit gives Spain a massive advantage in future negotiations over the status of what?s called el Pe??n in Spanish. That?s an advantage that Spain will press home to maximum effect. The Telegraph is suddenly outraged that Spain might wield a veto. They were pretty cheerful about it when they were claiming that it was Scotland which might be vetoed. Threats are just fine when they?re directed against Scotland. That?s the double standards of Unionism in full flow.

 

In other news, Theresa May?s cunning plan to block a Scottish referendum by claiming that she?s acting for the majority of Scots received a bit of a blow today. Is it OK to say ?blow for Theresa May?? I have to ask seeing as how that?s a phrase you never seem to see in the newspapers on account of how it?s only ever Nicola Sturgeon that?s on the receiving end of them. On the day that Theresa received the official letter from Nicola requesting a Section 30 Order, an opinion poll was published showing that a large majority of voters in Scotland expect that it should be the Scottish Parliament which decides on whether and when a Scottish independence referendum should be held.

 

According to the poll, carried out by Survation, 61% of Scottish voters believe that it?s the Scottish Parliament and not Westminster which should have the right to decide. Theresa May?s high risk strategy of blocking a Scottish referendum looks like it?s going to end badly for her. By a very significant margin the people of Scotland believe that it?s their own parliament which should decide on a Scottish referendum, and they?re not going to look positively on an intransigent Tory party with just one MP and a mere 22% of Holyrood votes telling them that they can?t.

 

We?re only a couple of days into the Brexit process and already the fantasies of the Tories about facing down Scotland, and the fantasies of the Brexiteers about how the EU would fall over itself to give Britain everything it wanted have crashed into the hard brick wall of reality. Now where?s that Spanish dictionary, I want to look up the word for Schadenfreude.

 

If you?d like me and the dug to come and give a talk to your local group, email me at [email protected]

[deesidejambo]

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear. [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]

 

Spain just vetoed the U.K over Brexit and Gibraltar and any future deals with a press release.

 

What were you Yoons saying about Scotland joining the EU again?

 

Wee Ginger Dug, his take on it.

 

 

Petard, by, hoist, own, your. Arrange these words into a well known phrase or saying. It?s been a bad day for the Unionist parties. Remember how all those Unionist parties and their supporters were screaming to the rafters that there would be a Spanish veto? Well it turns out that they were right. It?s just that it?s not an independent Scotland that will be subject to a Spanish veto, it?s the UK?s Brexit. That?s what comes of giving Spain ideas about vetos.

 

The EU?s official reply to Theresa May?s Brexit letter has been received, and in paragraph 22 it says ?After the United Kingdom leaves the Union, no agreement between the EU and the United Kingdom may apply to the territory of Gibraltar without agreement between the Kingdom of Spain and the United Kingdom.?

 

This paragraph gives Spain what it said it wanted prior to Brexit, but which was ignored by a Unionist media that was far more interested in trumpeting a non-existent threat to veto an independent Scotland. It gives Spain an explicit veto power over any Brexit agreement that includes Gibraltar. That Spain was going to seek this explicit veto power was obvious to anyone who was paying attention. That doesn?t include much of the British media, and particularly not the Brexiteer branch which is now howling with outrage that their plans to take the UK into a dystopian neo-conservative tax haven have just run into a Spanish veto threat.

 

According to some reports today in the British media, the veto power that Spain now has to veto any Brexit deal that includes Gibraltar has come as a surprise. As I type this, the announcer on Sky News introduced a Brexiteer commentator and said that the Spanish veto seems to have caught a lot of analysts off guard. But it?s only come as a surprise to British nationalists who weren?t paying attention, and who were desperately trying to spin any statement from a Spanish official into a blow for Nicola Sturgeon while at the same time ignoring the things that the Spanish government was explicitly saying. Spain had loudly advertised its desire to seek a veto over Gibraltar, and it was very clear to anyone who had been following the statements of Spanish politicians instead of relying on what was filtered through the pages of the Express or the Telegraph.

 

The Spanish veto over Gibraltar won?t come as a surprise to anyone who?s been following this blog. Back in July last year I pointed out in this blog that Spain was going to veto any Brexit that included Gibraltar. Wee Ginger Dug 1, Metrocommentariat 0. I noted that the then Spanish foreign minister had stated that Spain would have the right to veto any Brexit deal including Gibraltar and that he said Spain would make it ?clear that Gibraltar does not belong to the UK?. But none of the Unionist media outlets were interested, it didn?t suit their narrative that it was only an independent Scotland that needed to be worried about Spain.

 

In the cosmic scheme of things, Spain isn?t really particularly concerned about Scotland or Scottish independence. There is considerable sympathy for Scotland in Spain, even amongst people who are viscerally opposed to Catalan independence. Spanish people know that Scotland was an independent state for almost a thousand years before it merged with the Kingdom of England to form the UK. Scotland was in fact an independent state long before the Spanish state existed. In Spain?s view, Scottish independence can be managed, and as I?ve written numerous times in this blog before, vetoing Scottish membership of the EU would undermine the argument Spain has consistently made against permitting Catalan self-determination. Following Brexit, the Spanish government has made clear what some of us have been saying for a long time, they will not veto Scottish membership of the EU if Scotland becomes independent legally and constitutionally.

 

On the other hand, Spain is very interested indeed in the status of Gibraltar. The UK will not be permitted to waltz off into the Brexit sunset without coming to an agreement with Spain over the position of Gibraltar. The decision of voters in England and Wales to give majority support to Brexit gives Spain a massive advantage in future negotiations over the status of what?s called el Pe??n in Spanish. That?s an advantage that Spain will press home to maximum effect. The Telegraph is suddenly outraged that Spain might wield a veto. They were pretty cheerful about it when they were claiming that it was Scotland which might be vetoed. Threats are just fine when they?re directed against Scotland. That?s the double standards of Unionism in full flow.

 

In other news, Theresa May?s cunning plan to block a Scottish referendum by claiming that she?s acting for the majority of Scots received a bit of a blow today. Is it OK to say ?blow for Theresa May?? I have to ask seeing as how that?s a phrase you never seem to see in the newspapers on account of how it?s only ever Nicola Sturgeon that?s on the receiving end of them. On the day that Theresa received the official letter from Nicola requesting a Section 30 Order, an opinion poll was published showing that a large majority of voters in Scotland expect that it should be the Scottish Parliament which decides on whether and when a Scottish independence referendum should be held.

 

According to the poll, carried out by Survation, 61% of Scottish voters believe that it?s the Scottish Parliament and not Westminster which should have the right to decide. Theresa May?s high risk strategy of blocking a Scottish referendum looks like it?s going to end badly for her. By a very significant margin the people of Scotland believe that it?s their own parliament which should decide on a Scottish referendum, and they?re not going to look positively on an intransigent Tory party with just one MP and a mere 22% of Holyrood votes telling them that they can?t.

 

We?re only a couple of days into the Brexit process and already the fantasies of the Tories about facing down Scotland, and the fantasies of the Brexiteers about how the EU would fall over itself to give Britain everything it wanted have crashed into the hard brick wall of reality. Now where?s that Spanish dictionary, I want to look up the word for Schadenfreude.

 

If you?d like me and the dug to come and give a talk to your local group, email me at [email protected]

So Spain can block Brexit?

 

Well that position will be added into the negotiations and is not a surprise

 

Meanwhile back home I note the freedom of movement card played by Nicola is not supported by a large majority of Scottish voters.

 

Oh dear indeed.

 

But keep ignoring that.

[Space Mackerel]

So Spain can block Brexit?

 

Well that position will be added into the negotiations and is not a surprise

 

Meanwhile back home I note the freedom of movement card played by Nicola is not supported by a large majority of Scottish voters.

 

Oh dear indeed.

 

But keep ignoring that.

It'll be the deal after the leaving bits been agreed.

 

All this time banging about Scotland getting vetoed and look who gets it in the neck first.

 

What a riddy.

[frankblack]

It'll be the deal after the leaving bits been agreed.

 

All this time banging about Scotland getting vetoed and look who gets it in the neck first.

 

What a riddy.

If we have to sacrifice Gibraltar, which is a token British shithole, we would demand a better deal elsewhere. Other parts of Spain are more British than that dump.

[deesidejambo]

It'll be the deal after the leaving bits been agreed.

 

All this time banging about Scotland getting vetoed and look who gets it in the neck first.

 

What a riddy.

And the freedom of movement issue? You seem to keep missing that.

[Adam Murray]

It also shows Spain, among others, will play hardball when it comes to Brexit, or any Independent Scotland entering/remaining in the EU.

[Trapper John McIntyre]

Nails it!

 

I preferred the retort on twitter to Ruth Davidson when she drew similarities between the photo of Sturgeon on the couch and one of Thatcher on a couch.

 

https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/847552540959002624

 

 

so someone posted

 

 

Which I found quite amusing.

 

Boris is immediately censured for mentioning a Nazi on a nationalism thread.

[Unknown user]

If we have to sacrifice Gibraltar, which is a token British shithole, we would demand a better deal elsewhere. Other parts of Spain are more British than that dump.

That's a disgraceful comment, there are tens of thousands of good people on Gib, British citizens. Just **** them aye? The vast vast majority of them are more proud of being British than anyone else I know

[Trapper John McIntyre]

Some light entertainment for you all:

 

[Boris]

Boris is immediately censured for mentioning a Nazi on a nationalism thread.

Which one?

[Dawnrazor]

Some light entertainment for you all:

 

[manaliveits105]

In full: Nicola Sturgeon's letter to Theresa May - The Telegraph

https://apple.news/Amg0s2IKmThCkJYEBK7oDHg

 

Not sure if work as from news feed but letter from NS to TM.

That photo of Krankie with the shoes off writing the letter is so unprofessional and insulting - she just continues with poor judgement.

Sturgeon oot !

[manaliveits105]

HILARIOUS BUT TYPICAL OF Still No Policies Party

[Roxy Hearts]

It's seps you're dealing with so of course playground rules apply.

Seps? Playground stuff right there.

 

We support self governance. Are all independent countries seps? What is it with you people who can't see Scotland for its value rather than its worth. Some of my fellow country people do my head in.

 

Narrow minded, parochial, subservient Westminster propaganda lead irrationals.

[Trapper John McIntyre]

Seps? Playground stuff right there.

 

We support self governance. Are all independent countries seps? What is it with you people who can't see Scotland for its value rather than its worth. Some of my fellow country people do my head in.

 

Narrow minded, parochial, subservient Westminster propaganda lead irrationals.

 

Or just ordinary people who aren't guided by flags but by pragmatism and common sense?

 

Never knew a flag could pay a mortgage.

[Roxy Hearts]

Or just ordinary people who aren't guided by flags but by pragmatism and common sense?

 

Never knew a flag could pay a mortgage.

Who said anything about flags? I see being independent as ordinary and pragmatic. I'm sure other countries see themselves that way too.

[Trapper John McIntyre]

Who said anything about flags? I see being independent as ordinary and pragmatic. I'm sure other countries see themselves that way too.

 

You go your way and I'll go mine.

 

As far as I'm concerned, I already live in an independant country called the United Kingdom which does alright for me and my family. I can go anywhere I like in this country and feel at home wherever I may be. The only thing that differs are the accents. 

 

How pragmatic and ordinary is that?

[Roxy Hearts]

Or just ordinary people who aren't guided by flags but by pragmatism and common sense?

 

Never knew a flag could pay a mortgage.

Why so many UJ's on goods, buildings etc. Imposing propaganda upon the weak. It has always been thus.

[AlphonseCapone]

Who said anything about flags? I see being independent as ordinary and pragmatic. I'm sure other countries see themselves that way too.

Independence is only weird for Scotland apparently. Being in EU doesn't make you independent either, sorry Germany and France. Not running a surplus economy also means you can't be independent, sorry every country in the world.

 

Disclaimer: none of this has applied to the UK.

[Trapper John McIntyre]

Why so many UJ's on goods, buildings etc. Imposing propaganda upon the weak. It has always been thus.

 

Never seen as many UJ's as I've seen Saltires lately.

[Roxy Hearts]

You go your way and I'll go mine.

 

As far as I'm concerned, I already live in an independant country called the United Kingdom which does alright for me and my family. I can go anywhere I like in this country and feel at home wherever I may be. The only thing that differs are the accents.

 

How pragmatic and ordinary is that?

I'm happy for you but UK is not a country. I like different parts of this island too.

 

There is a democratic defecit as most Scots don't agree with the type of tory we have but we are governed by them. You could say the same about the SNP but at least you can attempt to vote them out. I get lumbered with tories or labour.

[Trapper John McIntyre]

I'm happy for you but UK is not a country. I like different parts of this island too.

 

There is a democratic defecit as most Scots don't agree with the type of tory we have but we are governed by them. You could say the same about the SNP but at least you can attempt to vote them out. I get lumbered with tories or labour.

The rest of us are lumbered with the SNP.

[Roxy Hearts]

Never seen as many UJ's as I've seen Saltires lately.

The saltire is our flag and countries are proud of theirs. It represent all from that country.

 

The UJ I feel is imposed upon us as we do not all agree with it.

[Trapper John McIntyre]

The saltire is our flag and countries are proud of theirs. It represent all from that country.

 

The UJ I feel is imposed upon us as we do not all agree with it.

 

I suddenly feel oppressed.

[Roxy Hearts]

The rest of us are lumbered with the SNP.

Lol that's what I mean. Independence would give us the opportunity to vote in the government Scotland wants. I would probably vote for a centre right party if we achieved it. You would have your chance to vote out the SNP but they may disband anyway.

[Roxy Hearts]

Independence is only weird for Scotland apparently. Being in EU doesn't make you independent either, sorry Germany and France. Not running a surplus economy also means you can't be independent, sorry every country in the world.

 

Disclaimer: none of this has applied to the UK.

You're on it AP.

[Trapper John McIntyre]

Lol that's what I mean. Independence would give us the opportunity to vote in the government Scotland wants. I would probably vote for a centre right party if we achieved it. You would have your chance to vote out the SNP but they may disband anyway.

If you think Independence will mean the splintering of the SNP, you're sadly mistaken.

 

They mean to hold on to power and they will do that for decades. 

 

 Just another myth peddled by the Natz, like hidden oilfields and phony GERS figures to fool the gullable.

[Roxy Hearts]

If you think Independence will mean the splintering of the SNP, you're sadly mistaken.

 

They mean to hold on to power and they will do that for decades.

 

Just another myth peddled by the Natz, like hidden oilfields and phony GERS figures to fool the gullable.

If you believe that then you would have the chance to vote them out. Natz crap bantz!

 

GERS gerrymandering nonsense.

 

 

Oilfields hidden or otherwise still exist.

 

I'm not gullible, I leave that too those who watch the BBC and buy papers.

[Trapper John McIntyre]

If you believe that then you would have the chance to vote them out. Natz crap bantz!

 

GERS gerrymandering nonsense.

 

 

Oilfields hidden or otherwise still exist.

 

I'm not gullible, I leave that too those who watch the BBC and buy papers.

Then goodnight.

[Roxy Hearts]

Then goodnight.

Goodnight

[Space Mackerel]

If we have to sacrifice Gibraltar, which is a token British shithole, we would demand a better deal elsewhere. Other parts of Spain are more British than that dump.

That token British shithole controls the strategic entrance to the Mediterranean Sea and has a easy access to deploy troops to the oilfields of North Africa such as Libya etc.

 

Bad idea when the Brits have lost Scottish oil :-/

[Space Mackerel]

.

[AlphonseCapone]

That token British shithole controls the strategic entrance to the Mediterranean Sea and has a easy access to deploy troops to the oilfields of North Africa such as Libya etc.

 

Bad idea when the Brits have lost Scottish oil :-/

Exactly. To call it a shithole shows a ridiculous lack of awareness. Also shows you how quickly some unionists will drop you when it suits.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

Exactly. To call it a shithole shows a ridiculous lack of awareness. Also shows you how quickly some unionists will drop you when it suits.

Agreed.

 

Time for the UK to annoy the Spanish by supporting a free Catalunya!

[Seymour M Hersh]

Agreed.

 

Time for the UK to annoy the Spanish by supporting a free Catalunya!

 

Maybe better supporting the Basques in their independence struggle as Catalonia really only wants to keep more of the money it generates there instead of it being hoovered up by Madrid.

[frankblack]

Exactly. To call it a shithole shows a ridiculous lack of awareness. Also shows you how quickly some unionists will drop you when it suits.

Probably true and a bit of a rash statement from me.

 

As a place to visit it is a shithole but it must have other uses as the Spanish have land access locked down.

 

My personal opinion isn't likely to match the UK Government who will play hardball until this is off the table.

 

The Spanish will be after our fishing waters next and may have thrown this in ad a smokescreen. That is something the SNP would surrender in a flash.

 

The EU can't make grabs for land and waters we owned before the union.

[manaliveits105]

Correct the snp trip to spain will have gone along the lines of ;

 

snp - Will you please let us in to the EU if we become Independent ?

 

Spain - Will you stop supporting Catallan independence and let us fish in your waters ? - 

 

SNP - yes 

 

Spain - good but we cant let you in to the EU .

[Space Mackerel]

 

Cannae stop laughing at the real Spanish veto.

 

Well snookered.

 

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro

[Trapper John McIntyre]

Cannae stop laughing at the real Spanish veto.

 

Well snookered.

 

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro

Cheering a Spanish veto?

 

Get used to them.

[JamboX2]

Don't you think that the impact could be estimated from the outcome of the brexit negotiations?

No. It took nearly 30 years until the industrial boom took hold in Scotland post-1707. It took near 10 for the Glasgow merchants to establish a strong foothold in the American slave and tobacco trades post-1707. That early 10 year ripple caused the boom years later as the finances of Scottish industry swelled and ideas and new industrial methods arrived in Scotland from industrialised England. That set up a nation for nearly 150-200 years.

 

Are we really saying that Brexit talks now will really provide a full enough picture to assess the situation properly?

 

However, Parliament sits in terms. This Parliament by a majority of 10 wants a referendum by the end of this term. So we need to hold it by 2021.

[Space Mackerel]

Cheering a Spanish veto?

 

Get used to them.

[Space Mackerel]

I hope so as SNP will then get locked into the freedom of movement requirement. Then they will get hammered back home.

 

I guess the Curtice data is more lies?

I quite like the jib of this Curtice guy.

 

http://www.thenational.scot/news/15196794.Top_pollster_John_Curtice_predicts_attempt_to_hold_legal_referendum_without_Westminster_s_permission/?ref=fbshr

[argyjambo]

Some light entertainment for you all:

 

Funny, I always thought John Nicolson already had someone to "dig his hole" for him

[Space Mackerel]

Old Woody from Aiberdeen has changed his mind again about the oil again [emoji849]

 

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/north-seas-oil-industry-nowhere-near-the-end-of-its-life-says-top-tycoon/

[SwindonJambo]

Old Woody from Aiberdeen has changed his mind again about the oil again [emoji849]https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/north-seas-oil-industry-nowhere-near-the-end-of-its-life-says-top-tycoon/

Which is good news for the oil industry because it means that it's kept alive. But at $50 a barrel, it's barely profitable. And that $50 a barrel is only just propped up artificially by the recent OPEC Deal. The World is awash with a glut of cheap oil and most analysts think this will continue for many, many years. It will, of course, eventually rise but that's likely to be a long way off. To place your hopes on a single volatile and currently very cheap commodity is an extremely foolhardy gamble.

 

It's good that the exploration and production companies will be kept active and their expertise is not lost but they will not be making big profits at $50 a barrel and will only be profitable at all thanks to big tax breaks. So while the companies themselves will benefit to a degree, cash inflows to the treasury will be minimal. A rise in oils prices would change that but it's not on the horizon.

[The Comedian]

Here's hoping it's got a while to go, I'm away for a trade test on Wednesday for the Mariner hook-up with Aker Solutions. At 32 I'm hoping to get many more trips out of the North Sea.

 

[Space Mackerel]

Which is good news for the oil industry because it means that it's kept alive. But at $50 a barrel, it's barely profitable. And that $50 a barrel is only just propped up artificially by the recent OPEC Deal. The World is awash with a glut of cheap oil and most analysts think this will continue for many, many years. It will, of course, eventually rise but that's likely to be a long way off. To place your hopes on a single volatile and currently very cheap commodity is an extremely foolhardy gamble.

 

It's good that the exploration and production companies will be kept active and their expertise is not lost but they will not be making big profits at $50 a barrel and will only be profitable at all thanks to big tax breaks. So while the companies themselves will benefit to a degree, cash inflows to the treasury will be minimal. A rise in oils prices would change that but it's not on the horizon.

That's all very well and said but I remember reading a few weeks ago that the oil producing nations have reached an agreement and are cutting production to boost the price.

 

What do you think a barrel of oil is going to cost come indyref2?

I'll go for $70 and my wee pal says it will be back up to $100 in 5 years.

[Space Mackerel]

Which is good news for the oil industry because it means that it's kept alive. But at $50 a barrel, it's barely profitable. And that $50 a barrel is only just propped up artificially by the recent OPEC Deal. The World is awash with a glut of cheap oil and most analysts think this will continue for many, many years. It will, of course, eventually rise but that's likely to be a long way off. To place your hopes on a single volatile and currently very cheap commodity is an extremely foolhardy gamble.

 

It's good that the exploration and production companies will be kept active and their expertise is not lost but they will not be making big profits at $50 a barrel and will only be profitable at all thanks to big tax breaks. So while the companies themselves will benefit to a degree, cash inflows to the treasury will be minimal. A rise in oils prices would change that but it's not on the horizon.

Oh, and here's a wee video for you to watch, 8 mins long.

 

If it was good enough to pull the UK out the shit in the 70's and 80's, it should be fine for a wee country like us with a 1/10th of the population.

 

[SwindonJambo]

That's all very well and said but I remember reading a few weeks ago that the oil producing nations have reached an agreement and are cutting production to boost the price.

What do you think a barrel of oil is going to cost come indyref2?

I'll go for $70 and my wee pal says it will be back up to $100 in 5 years.

I was following those negotiations very closely. The agreement took place a while ago and there was an initial boost in the oil price to around $57 but it quickly fell away to $50-52 as all that happens is that the US jacks up its production of shale oil, of which it has plenty and it can kick start production at short notice and switch off again if oil gets too cheap. The price of oil has a natural brake on it of around $50- $55 for as long as the US has stocks of shale oil. It's an absolute game changer.

 

I'd suggest that the chance of $100 a barrel oil or even $70 for the foreseeable future are non existent. It was down at $27 a barrel in January 2016 as OPEC tried to kill US shale oil by flooding the market with cheap oil, which they can still produced profitably at that price as it's onshore. The recent agreement to place a floor of $50 a barrel was effectively an admission of defeat on their part as they recognised that the US shale oil production can be turned on and off at short notice like a tap. Saudi tax receipts took a massive hit during this time of uber cheap oil.

 

Scotland's oil, although substantial is all offshore and expensive to drill, only really being profitable above $60 a barrel so it's not going to be a significant cash cow again for many many years.

 

Scotland must look elsewhere if it wants to become economically self sufficient. I thought Mr Salmond said we could be the Saudi Arabia of renewable energy? I'd like to see this developed more.

[Space Mackerel]

I was following those negotiations very closely. The agreement took place a while ago and there was an initial boost in the oil price to around $57 but it quickly fell away to $50-52 as all that happens is that the US jacks up its production of shale oil, of which it has plenty and it can kick start production at short notice and switch off again if oil gets too cheap. The price of oil has a natural brake on it of around $50- $55 for as long as the US has stocks of shale oil. It's an absolute game changer.

 

I'd suggest that the chance of $100 a barrel oil or even $70 for the foreseeable future are non existent. It was down at $27 a barrel in January 2016 as OPEC tried to kill US shale oil by flooding the market with cheap oil, which they can still produced profitably at that price as it's onshore. The recent agreement to place a floor of $50 a barrel was effectively an admission of defeat on their part as they recognised that the US shale oil production can be turned on and off at short notice like a tap. Saudi tax receipts took a massive hit during this time of uber cheap oil.

 

Scotland's oil, although substantial is all offshore and expensive to drill, only really being profitable above $60 a barrel so it's not going to be a significant cash cow again for many many years.

 

Scotland must look elsewhere if it wants to become economically self sufficient. I thought Mr Salmond said we could be the Saudi Arabia of renewable energy? I'd like to see this developed more.

Why can't we have both then?

 

Page 5 and this mans conclusions says the US shale production has nil effect on global price and never will have.

 

https://www.iaee.org/en/publications/newsletterdl.aspx?id=202