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Sturgeon shelves plan for quick second Scottish independence referendum


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Space Mackerel

You do realise that if independent and in the European Union those costs for foreign affairs, international development and for things like defence and things which are UK wide costs at the moment.

 

Meaning the deficit would be a lot higher than ?2.5billion.

You done the public expenditure surveys too for the next 3 years?

 

 

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As for the government's legislative program, a lot of promise in the language used and looking forward to the social security bill but I think the Air Passenger Duty cut is shambolic. A cut to throw ?250 million of tax receipts out the window and to big business is an utterly farce given the climate change targets and the wider cuts they're passing on.

 

I think the intent and the language is good. But I'm skeptical about the will to be really radical. Detail seems timid.

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You done the public expenditure surveys too for the next 3 years?

 

 

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No but it's basic to assume Scotland would run her own foreign policy, be a contributor to aid, have an army and navy and fill in the gaps that leaving the UK would cause as an independent nation.

 

Hence higher spending than currently incurred in Scotland.

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Space Mackerel

No but it's basic to assume Scotland would run her own foreign policy, be a contributor to aid, have an army and navy and fill in the gaps that leaving the UK would cause as an independent nation.

 

Hence higher spending than currently incurred in Scotland.

A ken, we need to max the tax payers credit card on behalf of big business to blooter countries into submission. You costed that too?

 

 

 

 

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One thing is certain - change.

 

Seems the polls will decide if there is a referendum. But SNP dominance going forwsrd is not certain.

 

When Labour won a landslide in 2001 at UK election they thought they would be government for a generation or more.

 

The policy of pushing for independence over economy and social reform could be a mistake to equal anything else. While a bit more patience to build the case for independence through good government seems too hard for SNP.

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A ken, we need to max the tax payers credit card on behalf of big business to blooter countries into submission. You costed that too?

 

 

 

 

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No. But we're maxing the credit card out in Scotland to give airlines more money by cutting Air Passenger Duty. Thoughts on that?

 

So Scotland is to have no embassies to represent us and to look after her citizens abroad, no defence forces, is to cut all foreign aid and is to join the European Union but not pay the dues...

 

 

...aye. Smashing future.

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A ken, we need to max the tax payers credit card on behalf of big business to blooter countries into submission. You costed that too?

 

 

 

 

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No. But we're maxing the credit card out in Scotland to give airlines more money by cutting Air Passenger Duty. Thoughts on that?

 

So Scotland is to have no embassies to represent us and to look after her citizens abroad, no defence forces, is to cut all foreign aid and is to join the European Union but not pay the dues...

 

 

...aye. Smashing future.

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Space Mackerel

No. But we're maxing the credit card out in Scotland to give airlines more money by cutting Air Passenger Duty. Thoughts on that?

 

So Scotland is to have no embassies to represent us and to look after her citizens abroad, no defence forces, is to cut all foreign aid and is to join the European Union but not pay the dues...

 

 

...aye. Smashing future.

I thought the whole point of cutting tax is to entice more passengers and create more business? Swings and roundabouts?

 

As for embassies? What do you want? Is a wee consulate not enough? Are you smuggling dope likes and might need help in the future? [emoji23]

 

 

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Space Mackerel

Not relevant to the debate but I share your amusement in this instance.

Mind that ?180 million extra per week to the NHS though? [emoji23]

 

 

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I thought the whole point of cutting tax is to entice more passengers and create more business? Swings and roundabouts?

 

As for embassies? What do you want? Is a wee consulate not enough? Are you smuggling dope likes and might need help in the future? [emoji23]

 

 

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There's an argument to be had that it won't entice any more people than already come. I think Edinburgh is the second biggest tourist destination in the UK after London. What more do we want?

 

A consulate is an embassy. It's an embassy in a nation which is not based in the capital. The USA has its embassy in London and a consulate in Edinburgh. So you're point makes no sense.

 

A diplomatic trade helps creates trade and allows for a direct local point of contact. The idea we don't need that stuff is laughable.

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Mind that ?180 million extra per week to the NHS though? [emoji23]

 

 

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Went the same way as your old fund.

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Space Mackerel

A diplomatic trade helps creates trade and allows for a direct local point of contact. The idea we don't need that stuff is laughable.

Just as well "we" all voted out of Europe then [emoji849]

 

 

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No. But we're maxing the credit card out in Scotland to give airlines more money by cutting Air Passenger Duty. Thoughts on that?

 

So Scotland is to have no embassies to represent us and to look after her citizens abroad, no defence forces, is to cut all foreign aid and is to join the European Union but not pay the dues...

 

 

...aye. Smashing future.

We are not maxing out any credit card and we are not giving money to airlines. Air passenger duty is paid to the government. Removing APD means the government doesn't get the money any more. The position of the airline remains the same.

 

The Scottish government balances it's income and expenditure.

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Mind that ?180 million extra per week to the NHS though? [emoji23]

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Why are you dragging that into the debate? It's irrelevant ! I voted remain and can't stand Gove. Most Politicians build promises on sand at one time or another. Remember Mr Salmond basing his budgets on oil always being above $113 a barrel?

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We are not maxing out any credit card and we are not giving money to airlines. Air passenger duty is paid to the government. Removing APD means the government doesn't get the money any more. The position of the airline remains the same.

 

The Scottish government balances it's income and expenditure.

Within its span of control as a devolved administration, that may well be true. But it does not necessarily follow that it would continue to do so if fully independent. Totally different situation. Total Public spending on and on behalf of Scotland substantially exceeds the taxes it raises - ?15bn by the GERS measure and ?2.5bn according to Mr Mackerel's article from an unknown source which assumes that EU Membership would be free, no interest would be payable on debt and no FCO.

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The answer is simple and confirms why Indy is sunk.

 

Many people think Scotland is best represented by Westminister so are happy for SNP to fulfil that role. That's the opposite of Indy. In fact if the polling for a GE would be 100% SNP that would be a disaster for Indy.

54% exactly the vote for Indy from Scots. So be prepared for rUK resident in Scotland to be sidelined at Indyref2 too. Nae luck.

 

Bye bye England, Hello my EU brothers and sisters.

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Went the same way as your old fund.

Ask deeside why our Yankee friends are sitting tight regarding the oil.

A two year lull what about the other 40 years.

 

It doesn't matter true Scots wouldn't vote no, fact.

We don't need any convincing to free Scotland and be Scots. We are Scots.

 

No long to the 2nd Anniversary of traitors day. You joining the party?.

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What a sad, bitter bunch.

 

I'm still waiting on a response to my initial post...

Who?

Oh right the flutists. What sort bases their vote on religion and fitbaw.

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What a terrible argument. Properly moronic.

 

The blind who are voting for independence appear not to give a shit about the rest of us, who will have to cover a significant (whether that is ?9,10,15,20bn a year) deficit just to keep things where they are.

 

What planet do these people live on. Scotland has been a net contributor and a net receiver of UK finds at different times over the last few hundred years. At the moment, we are significantly funded by the rest of the U.K.

 

People arguing that the economy isn't the only thing to consider would be right, if the black hole wasn't so farcically large. ?15bn works out at ?4500pa (and that's on the assumption that everyone between 16-65 was contributing).

 

If me and my wife had to stump up ?10-15k a year in additional tax, we'd be headed down south tomorrow. I'm sure that applies to nearly everybody.

 

The fact that such a large proportion of our society would vote for this absolutely baffles me. It's not like 'things are bad now, might as well vote for change and see what happens' kind of scenario. It's blatantly obvious that independence would be catastrophic for Scotland in the current climate.

Why in gods name would you have to pay an extra 10 grand I tax?.

Its 15b without the powers of Independence.

The UK had a Deficit of over 150b 8 years ago, that maybe halved now but what did they do pay for things, they borrowed.

The debt which no voters seem to like to gloss over is over 1.5 Trillion, ffs give me peace about a 15b deficit and 10 or 15 grand tax grabs. A tenth of that and better management of funding.

 

 

Oh why dont unionist just ask the UK gov to cut our budget by ?15b ?. I seem to remember the SNP getting it in the neck for half a billion under spends at one point. Ridiculous.

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What a sad, bitter bunch.

 

I'm still waiting on a response to my initial post...

We also need a growth in population and that comes with independence.
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I'm past arguing over Scottish independence, all that needs to be said has been said.

 

With that in mind, I hope all of you Uncle Toms suffer a painful and horrible death. Toddle pip.

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I'm past arguing over Scottish independence, all that needs to be said has been said.

 

With that in mind, I hope all of you Uncle Toms suffer a painful and horrible death. Toddle pip.

If this is an example of your debating skills I doubt your input will be missed.

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If this is an example of your debating skills I doubt your input will be missed.

Nope, just this topic. The debate is over, anyone who is still a no voter is clearly too thick or too selfish to ever change their view. And in my view, anyone that votes no does so fully in the knowledge that they are causing unnecessary suffering to my country folk, so they deserve all the disdain I have. You choose suffering for me, I will wish suffering on you. But mines are only a wish, my actions cause no suffering, theirs does.

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Andrew Hughes Hallet got this completely wrong and subsequent letters to the FT proved as much. More worrying is that he is one of the SNP's big finance minds and yet he got his facts wrong

 

http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2016/08/response-to-prof-hughes-hallett-letter.html?m=1

Hallet may have got something wrong over accountancy or he may not, Hague only asserts, he proves nothing.

 

The issue surrounds oil and our use of it. Why has Norway made so much and the U.K. made so little? We gave our oil away to private companies and allowed them to manipulate markets resulting in higher profits and lower taxation revenue. http://www.resourcegovernance.org/blog/did-uk-miss-out-%C2%A3400-billion-worth-oil-revenue

 

Looks like a ?400billion subsidy from the taxpayer to oil companies. No wonder the U.K. has a deficit. This figure is about 2/3rds of the Norwegian oil fund which is the biggest sovereign wealth fund on the planet and has .

 

Some commentators quote figures for last year showing Norway producing twice as much oil as U.K. but generating almost 200 times the amount of revenue for their government.

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Ask deeside why our Yankee friends are sitting tight regarding the oil.

A two year lull what about the other 40 years.

It doesn't matter true Scots wouldn't vote no, fact.

We don't need any convincing to free Scotland and be Scots. We are Scots.

No long to the 2nd Anniversary of traitors day. You joining the party?.

I'd hate to be as bitter as you. Who is anyone to define a true Scot? Do you keep changing the rules and having more referenda until you win one? E.g. Scots born residents of Scotland only next time etc etc. What on Earth makes you think the population would rise with independence? I voted remain and was sad when it didn't happen, but accept the result and move on. I'd do the same in the event of Independence. I'd hope for the best, like any true Scot.

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Space Mackerel

I'd hate to be as bitter as you. Who is anyone to define a true Scot? Do you keep changing the rules and having more referenda until you win one? E.g. Scots born residents of Scotland only next time etc etc. What on Earth makes you think the population would rise with independence? I voted remain and was sad when it didn't happen, but accept the result and move on. I'd do the same in the event of Independence. I'd hope for the best, like any true Scot.

Do you live in Swindon?

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Hallet may have got something wrong over accountancy or he may not, Hague only asserts, he proves nothing.

 

The issue surrounds oil and our use of it. Why has Norway made so much and the U.K. made so little? We gave our oil away to private companies and allowed them to manipulate markets resulting in higher profits and lower taxation revenue. http://www.resourcegovernance.org/blog/did-uk-miss-out-%C2%A3400-billion-worth-oil-revenue

 

Looks like a ?400billion subsidy from the taxpayer to oil companies. No wonder the U.K. has a deficit. This figure is about 2/3rds of the Norwegian oil fund which is the biggest sovereign wealth fund on the planet and has .

 

Some commentators quote figures for last year showing Norway producing twice as much oil as U.K. but generating almost 200 times the amount of revenue for their government.

 

Wasn't just Hague saying that, many pointed it out to be nonsense. There is a sentence in the ONS that says UK accounts do conform with the European System of National Accounts so Hallet is fundamentally wrong when he says that they don't

 

Norway has higher taxes than the UK and so hasn't needed to dip into oil revenues to fund the country. 

 

Unless the SNP have a time machine up their sleeves, the issue is in the past. We can't go back and make an oil fund retrospectively. Scotland more than paid its way in the UK since the 80's, providing for the rest of the UK. Now we are benefiting from the sharing that the union offers. 

 

SNP are aiming to achieve independence by spreading of misinformation. People will see through that eventually.

 

You seem a sensible chap Coconut, i'm amazed you are so blinkered to not see through the whole charade

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Captain Sausage

Why in gods name would you have to pay an extra 10 grand I tax?.

Its 15b without the powers of Independence.

The UK had a Deficit of over 150b 8 years ago, that maybe halved now but what did they do pay for things, they borrowed.

The debt which no voters seem to like to gloss over is over 1.5 Trillion, ffs give me peace about a 15b deficit and 10 or 15 grand tax grabs. A tenth of that and better management of funding.

 

 

Oh why dont unionist just ask the UK gov to cut our budget by ?15b ?. I seem to remember the SNP getting it in the neck for half a billion under spends at one point. Ridiculous.

Cheers for the reply.

 

I put out my reasoning as clearly as I could. Without raising money elsewhere, or reducing public spending, we would have roughly a ?15bn black hole. The 10-15k per couple is fairly easy to extrapolate from that.

 

What would an independent Scotland do that could reduce that ?15bn to ?0? What gives you confidence that Scotland will somehow be that much better at 'management of funding' that we will be able to get rid of the deficit? I'm intrigued to understand if I've missed something here.

 

I don't think anyone is happy with our astronomical debt, or how the government is going about correcting the deficit. But the independence supporters throwaway comments about leaving Britain and this deficit disappearing are a bit disparaging.

 

If you'd ever managed a budget, you'd understand that gross misunderspend is an issue as it totally screws budget allocation going forward. Obviously not as big a problem as overspending, but it has its own complications.

 

All in all, I just cannot see how independence is financially viable. No one has al the answers, and I wouldn't expect that. But it's obvious that the SNP know the damage independence would have and yet they are pursuing it anyway. That frightens me.

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Thunderstruck

Cheers for the reply.

 

I put out my reasoning as clearly as I could. Without raising money elsewhere, or reducing public spending, we would have roughly a ?15bn black hole. The 10-15k per couple is fairly easy to extrapolate from that.

 

What would an independent Scotland do that could reduce that ?15bn to ?0? What gives you confidence that Scotland will somehow be that much better at 'management of funding' that we will be able to get rid of the deficit? I'm intrigued to understand if I've missed something here.

 

I don't think anyone is happy with our astronomical debt, or how the government is going about correcting the deficit. But the independence supporters throwaway comments about leaving Britain and this deficit disappearing are a bit disparaging.

 

If you'd ever managed a budget, you'd understand that gross misunderspend is an issue as it totally screws budget allocation going forward. Obviously not as big a problem as overspending, but it has its own complications.

 

All in all, I just cannot see how independence is financially viable. No one has al the answers, and I wouldn't expect that. But it's obvious that the SNP know the damage independence would have and yet they are pursuing it anyway. That frightens me.

It is also a concern that the proponents of Independence seem to adopt the Micawber macro-economic theory of "something will turn up". Unfortunately, what will turn up might not be beneficial.

 

What WILL turn up to affect the deficit is the cost of servicing Scotland's current debt in the form of PFI/NPD. When charted, it looks like a tsunami with a wave crest 10 years hence.

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Space Mackerel

It is also a concern that the proponents of Independence seem to adopt the Micawber macro-economic theory of "something will turn up". Unfortunately, what will turn up might not be beneficial.

 

What WILL turn up to affect the deficit is the cost of servicing Scotland's current debt in the form of PFI/NPD. When charted, it looks like a tsunami with a wave crest 10 years hence.

Too wee, too stupid

Too wee, too stupid

 

And on and on and on...

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In other words...

 

"I read the Scotsman and watch the BBC news, so there!"

 

[emoji23]

 

 

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Says the poster quoting the bbc when its a brexit vote.

Hows your european business venture doing haha.

Walter mitty ltd

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I'd hate to be as bitter as you. Who is anyone to define a true Scot? Do you keep changing the rules and having more referenda until you win one? E.g. Scots born residents of Scotland only next time etc etc. What on Earth makes you think the population would rise with independence? I voted remain and was sad when it didn't happen, but accept the result and move on. I'd do the same in the event of Independence. I'd hope for the best, like any true Scot.

 

This is the same poster who blabs on about little englanders mate.

He just doesn't see it.

He and space makeral (european businessman) just dont have the concept.

 

Facebook memes from those two.

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Wasn't just Hague saying that, many pointed it out to be nonsense. There is a sentence in the ONS that says UK accounts do conform with the European System of National Accounts so Hallet is fundamentally wrong when he says that they don't

 

Norway has higher taxes than the UK and so hasn't needed to dip into oil revenues to fund the country. 

 

Unless the SNP have a time machine up their sleeves, the issue is in the past. We can't go back and make an oil fund retrospectively. Scotland more than paid its way in the UK since the 80's, providing for the rest of the UK. Now we are benefiting from the sharing that the union offers. 

 

SNP are aiming to achieve independence by spreading of misinformation. People will see through that eventually.

 

You seem a sensible chap Coconut, i'm amazed you are so blinkered to not see through the whole charade

Obviously we cant go back but we might consider learning from our mistakes. What is the saying? Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome is the definition of insanity.

 

We have the Norway model and whether it's UK or indy Scotland it is a far better way if doing things than we currently have and just because most of the oil is gone that is no reason to limit the damage as much as possible.

 

The issue with Norway isn't to do with higher taxes and whether or not to dip into the oil fund it is about where the wealth generated by the oil goes. In their case it is used for the benefit of their country and it's people in ours far too much of it goes to corporate interests and often into tax havens. 

 

I genuinely don't know what misinformation is being spread by the SNP and what charade I am too blinkered to see. What I do know is that people in Scotland were promised EU membership if they voted No and probable exclusion should they vote yes. I believe leaving the EU  will be damaging to UK and Scotland not least because it has revealed a new low in UK governmental ineptitude.

 

In contrast I see almost every performance indicator of governance in Scotland improving sometimes by very high margins and currently at least 54% of us on board with it. This against a backdrop of a declining block grant.

 

The notion that the UK will support us because of our previous contribution through oil is frankly na?ve imo.  It was and still is UK oil. In any case the issue of inequality is more a social than a geographical issue. It's crystal clear to me that the Tories or their clones will be in power in the UK for many years to come. They have no commitment to reducing inequality or building a decent country or society in terms that I would want. There is no alternative to Indy and every day more people are realising this. We are not all blinkered, quite the contrary. We have widened our horizons thanks to the example of Norway.

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Nope, just this topic. The debate is over, anyone who is still a no voter is clearly too thick or too selfish to ever change their view. And in my view, anyone that votes no does so fully in the knowledge that they are causing unnecessary suffering to my country folk, so they deserve all the disdain I have. You choose suffering for me, I will wish suffering on you. But mines are only a wish, my actions cause no suffering, theirs does.

 

Causing unnecessary suffering In your humble opinion.  So wishing a painful death on those whose views you disagree with yet claiming the moral high ground.  Very civilised.

 

It concerns me hugely the extreme reactions and emotions close binary votes cause.  It's been the same with Brexit (which I opposed but accept) with all these public protests by in denial Remainers. Like  I say, Independence would make me sad, but I would wish those in charge the very best and hope it all went  as well as possible.  Even if it did work out well in the end, it would very likely be turbulent and disruptive to start with.

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Space Mackerel

Nice see Ms Sturgeon set out what's happening:

 

The First Minister has set out the Scottish Government?s plans for the next year.

 

Against the backdrop of the economic uncertainty caused by Brexit, here?s what the Scottish Government is doing to support businesses, grow our economy and create jobs.

 

 

 

The Scottish Growth Scheme will provide up to ?500 million over three years of investment guarantees and some loans, and will be focussed on start-up companies who have the potential to grow and export more.

 

 

 

From April next year, 100,000 premises will be removed from the burden of business rates entirely. And, the government will act on the outcomes of the review of business rates that is already underway.

 

 

 

In the coming year more than ?572 million will be invested in affordable housing - supporting jobs and economic growth across the country.

 

 

 

We have brought forward ?100 million of infrastructure spending to tackle the economic impact of Brexit and support jobs.

 

 

 

We will continue to do everything we can to protect Scotland?s place in the European single market. Find out why that?s important here.

 

 

 

Energy efficiency will be made a national infrastructure priority and will be supported with more than half a billion of public funding over the next four years.

 

 

 

We will invest ?90 million over the next year to ensure we deliver broadband to 95 per cent of premises by the end of 2017. And, we?ll reach 100 per cent by 2021.

 

 

 

The First Minister has confirmed the approval of European Structural Funds, meaning ?650 million in investment will be delivered for communities and businesses across Scotland.

 

 

 

We?ll invest ?3.5 million to establish and support Innovation and Investment Hubs in London, Dublin and Brussels. The Hubs will attract investment to Scotland and help Scottish firms access new markets.

 

 

 

Over the next year we will develop the business case for a new National Manufacturing Institute to help companies innovate and compete in international markets.

 

 

 

?12.5 million will be made available for oil and gas innovation and business support, including ?10 million to reduce risks associated with research and development, and to improve access to experts.

 

 

 

We will develop a comprehensive Decommissioning Action Plan to ensure our economy gets maximum benefit from planned oil and gas decommissioning.

 

 

 

A new Energy Strategy will reaffirm our commitment to reducing energy demand and the development of renewable sources of energy.

 

 

 

We will continue to work towards increasing the number of Living Wage accredited employers to 1000 by this time next year.

 

 

 

We have set up a new Business Information Service, to provide advice and support for businesses worried about Brexit.

 

 

 

We are establishing a new Post-Referendum Business Network, bringing together the Scottish Government, the Scotland Office, the STUC and business organisations, to help shape future policy and support.

 

 

 

We will introduce a Bill to replace Air Passenger Duty. Our intention is to halve the overall level of APD by the end of this parliament to support growth and improve our connections with the rest of the world.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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All this planning now but she couldn't tell us what currency Scotland would use if we voted for independence.

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All this planning now but she couldn't tell us what currency Scotland would use if we voted for independence.

 

And that's a crucial issue.  It would be ludicrous to share the pound with a post-Brexit rUK.  At present we don't even come close to meeting the criteria to join the Euro (even if allowed immediate EU membership).  So the only possibility would be a brand new currency and all the huge risks that entails.

 

Ms Sturgeon's plans as pasted in by Space Mackerel above actually seem sensible to me and I wish her every success with them.  But at present, the balance of Taxes raised and Public Spending would hole us below the waterline, before we even consider the currency issue, where her answers have never convinced me.

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Space Mackerel

And that's a crucial issue. It would be ludicrous to share the pound with a post-Brexit rUK. At present we don't even come close to meeting the criteria to join the Euro (even if allowed immediate EU membership). So the only possibility would be a brand new currency and all the huge risks that entails.

 

Ms Sturgeon's plans as pasted in by Space Mackerel above actually seem sensible to me and I wish her every success with them. But at present, the balance of Taxes raised and Public Spending would hole us below the waterline, before we even consider the currency issue, where her answers have never convinced me.

You never answered, do live in Swindon, yes or no?

 

 

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The separatists know it all, what currency will we be using if they get indy Is it the boaby, the smackeroonie, Is it the Euro?Sturgeon has had years to tell us.

Why don't they tell us, it is all planned and easy.

Who will be our lender of last resort.

We are a worse basket case than Greece, is that possible?

 

Oil would be 7 billion a year, now it is 60 million,promises and lies.

But feck all that we will have oor freeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeedom

Thank god enough of us seen through the lies and fantasy and voted No.

We would be out of Europe already and on our knees.

Not true Scots,quislings and traitors, because we are not stupid and brainwashed.

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You never answered, do live in Swindon, yes or no?

 

 

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If I had previously lived in Scotland all my life and never had any real wish to leave, but agreed to move to Swindon because my wife wanted to be nearer her family, would that count against me in your book?

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