Locking up third

[A_A wehatethehibs]

54 minutes ago, hearts00 said:

Third is over. Unless Kent is out and then agreed panic stations. 
 

 

Yeah if Kent is out for any extended time and we’re back to Sibbick Rowles I’m keekin myself tbh 

[hmfc_liam06]

We need 8 more points. A win over Killie would effectively seal it though.

[Muppetboy]

8 hours ago, boag1874 said:

We’ll finish third, this isn’t last season. No danger we see a 12 point swing in 10 games.

 

 

My biggest concern is making sure we don’t get beat off a non-of side in the cup

We're not getting near a cup mate, don't worry

[TexasAndy]

Every team has wobbly spells during a season.  Our points tally from Celtic away to Motherwell home has been nothing short of magnificent and has given us a buffer to ride the current storm.  Form is not something you can control so we just need to get the heads down and work through this.  Also we didn't lose last night AND we are a point further clear in 3rd.  We have had much worse bad nights!

[boag1874]

55 minutes ago, Muppetboy said:

We're not getting near a cup mate, don't worry

We’re odds on favourites to reach the semi final, luck of the draw could see us favourites to reach the final where anything can happen.

 

I know it’s not been the best week but jeezo, try & have a wee bit of optimism!
 

Plus even if we don’t win it, the maximum priority is making sure nobody outside the top 3 gets the chance to snatch Europe away from us which is the point I was making.

[By The Light..]

Hearts are 1/33 to finish third.

 

I have closed my 7/4 bet at £100 to return £275 at £252

 

No more bets please. 

[RustyRightPeg]

1 hour ago, TexasAndy said:

Every team has wobbly spells during a season.  Our points tally from Celtic away to Motherwell home has been nothing short of magnificent and has given us a buffer to ride the current storm.  Form is not something you can control so we just need to get the heads down and work through this.  Also we didn't lose last night AND we are a point further clear in 3rd.  We have had much worse bad nights!

 

Genuinely one of the more switched on posts we've seen over the last 12 hours.

 

I genuinely cannot believe the meltdown we're seeing. 

 

That was Hibs cup final last night, and we were a yard off it. So what? As you say, we've had worse nights and we didn't lose. 

 

This place genuinely cannot wait to put the foot in at any opportunity, it's quite sad actually. 

 

Everyone knew that this week in particular would be difficult. Your 3 biggest games of the season back to back to back. Energy sapping. Ride the storm of Sunday, whatever it brings. Onwards after that.

[Chuck Berry]

11 hours ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

There's very little work left to be done to ice third.

 

Motherwell, Aberdeen, St. Johnstone, Ross County, and Livingston cannot mathematically finish level with or in front of us.

 

For the other four, here are their maximum theoretically possible points totals:

 

Killie: 70

St. Mirren: 69

Dundee: 65

Hibs: 64

 

But of course they're not winning all their matches. In their close run last season where they overtook us, Aberdeen won 28 points in 14 games, and realistically 2ppg is probably the absolute maximum any non-OF club can sustain even over its most purple patch.

 

Maxing out at 2 PPG, the best reasonably plausible points total for each team is:

 

Killie: 60

St. Mirren: 59

Dundee 54

Hibs: 53

 

We are currently on 52 points. Effectively, three wins should put third on ice.

 

To ice third, we need to beat St. Johnstone, Livi, and cobble together three points from any of 8 other matches.

 

Folk  will say, "but last season!!!" During our absolute worst 10 game stretch last season, we managed 7 points. We need to do 2 points better than our absolute worst last season  over our last 10 games and we should be fine.

 

 

Good analysis.

 

Forget Ibrox, last night we were poor against a Hibs side buoyed by their Dundee win and dare I say it, desire? We still got a point out of it and could have won it in the end.  Regardless of what happens on Sunday, we have more than enough to pick up the neccesary points, we're not doing a Neilson collapse.

[Chuck Berry]

1 hour ago, TexasAndy said:

Every team has wobbly spells during a season.  Our points tally from Celtic away to Motherwell home has been nothing short of magnificent and has given us a buffer to ride the current storm.  Form is not something you can control so we just need to get the heads down and work through this.  Also we didn't lose last night AND we are a point further clear in 3rd.  We have had much worse bad nights!

 

This ^^

[vegas-voss]

2 hours ago, Dia Liom said:

There was a thread on our points total from the three games and plenty folk were saying 5 points would be ok, fine, decent. Funny how confidence changes in football 🤠.

I had 3 or 4 , it  I automatically just put us down as beating Hibs but **** me sometimes it doesn't happen.Who knows we might miraculously beat Celtic and that will give me my optimistic 4 points but I doubt it as we have had our great display against them for the season no doubt.Its what we do after the Celtic game that really matters.

[Muppetboy]

34 minutes ago, boag1874 said:

We’re odds on favourites to reach the semi final, luck of the draw could see us favourites to reach the final where anything can happen.

 

I know it’s not been the best week but jeezo, try & have a wee bit of optimism!
 

Plus even if we don’t win it, the maximum priority is making sure nobody outside the top 3 gets the chance to snatch Europe away from us which is the point I was making.

Yeah mate very true. I imagine it's pretty much a certainty that one of the old firm will win it. It's the last two games that have shown us up in a way and I'm 85 percent sure Sunday won't be pretty either. Which is a shame because these 3 games were opportunities to put down a marker. 

[pettigrewsstylist]

One game at a time. Livi and Killie at home are key wins.

[Tour22]

10 hours ago, boag1874 said:

We’ll finish third, this isn’t last season. No danger we see a 12 point swing in 10 games.

 

 

My biggest concern is making sure we don’t get beat off a non-of side in the cup

 

With Killie to play us twice I wouldn't be saying there is no danger of it happening. County away and killie at home will be massive games. The gap could easily start to dwindle.

[vegas-voss]

21 minutes ago, pettigrewsstylist said:

One game at a time. Livi and Killie at home are key wins.

As long as we don't lose to Killie

[jamboinglasgow]

1 minute ago, vegas-voss said:

As long as we don't lose to Killie

 

Yup, I would argue that the Killie games are must win for them but a draw benefits us (obviously I want a win)

[Dia Liom]

40 minutes ago, vegas-voss said:

I had 3 or 4 , it  I automatically just put us down as beating Hibs but **** me sometimes it doesn't happen.Who knows we might miraculously beat Celtic and that will give me my optimistic 4 points but I doubt it as we have had our great display against them for the season no doubt.Its what we do after the Celtic game that really matters.

 I was hoping for 9 and a title challenge! just pointing out that expectations on here are often not realistic. 4 points out of these three games would be very good at basically any point in the last 50 years.

[chrystaf]

11 hours ago, Pasquale for King said:

We will limp over the line if we keep starting slowly with the wrong team. 

Yes this slow start to every game does my head in.

[vegas-voss]

19 minutes ago, Dia Liom said:

 I was hoping for 9 and a title challenge! just pointing out that expectations on here are often not realistic. 4 points out of these three games would be very good at basically any point in the last 50 years.

Aye folk get carried away but why not , when reality bites though just take a step back and think as you say look back over the years.

[Pingu]

12 hours ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

There's very little work left to be done to ice third.

 

Motherwell, Aberdeen, St. Johnstone, Ross County, and Livingston cannot mathematically finish level with or in front of us.

 

For the other four, here are their maximum theoretically possible points totals:

 

Killie: 70

St. Mirren: 69

Dundee: 65

Hibs: 64

 

But of course they're not winning all their matches. In their close run last season where they overtook us, Aberdeen won 28 points in 14 games, and realistically 2ppg is probably the absolute maximum any non-OF club can sustain even over its most purple patch.

 

Maxing out at 2 PPG, the best reasonably plausible points total for each team is:

 

Killie: 60

St. Mirren: 59

Dundee 54

Hibs: 53

 

We are currently on 52 points. Effectively, three wins should put third on ice.

 

To ice third, we need to beat St. Johnstone, Livi, and cobble together three points from any of 8 other matches.

 

Folk  will say, "but last season!!!" During our absolute worst 10 game stretch last season, we managed 7 points. We need to do 2 points better than our absolute worst last season  over our last 10 games and we should be fine.

 

 

Completely agree with this analysis. I'd calculated exactly the same!

 

61 points should be enough barring something outlandish happening. I think we will have a bit of a wobble, but my best guess is that we'll finish on around 65. 

 

Of our rivals, Killie are the most likely to go on a strong run so the game at Tynie on 30th March looks really important. Win that, and we're pretty much there.

[Turkishcap]

Shanks not suspended for County game?

If so makes it harder.

6 bookings I think.

[Pasquale for King]

11 minutes ago, chrystaf said:

Yes this slow start to every game does my head in.

I said last week we would be better going to the game at HT, there is rarely any attack of note in a 1st half. Two shots on target, one in each half would be bad enough against the uglies or a decent European team away from home , but Hibs at Tynecastle 🤬🤦🏽.

[Texaco]

12 hours ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

There's very little work left to be done to ice third.

 

Motherwell, Aberdeen, St. Johnstone, Ross County, and Livingston cannot mathematically finish level with or in front of us.

 

For the other four, here are their maximum theoretically possible points totals:

 

Killie: 70

St. Mirren: 69

Dundee: 65

Hibs: 64

 

But of course they're not winning all their matches. In their close run last season where they overtook us, Aberdeen won 28 points in 14 games, and realistically 2ppg is probably the absolute maximum any non-OF club can sustain even over its most purple patch.

 

Maxing out at 2 PPG, the best reasonably plausible points total for each team is:

 

Killie: 60

St. Mirren: 59

Dundee 54

Hibs: 53

 

We are currently on 52 points. Effectively, three wins should put third on ice.

 

To ice third, we need to beat St. Johnstone, Livi, and cobble together three points from any of 8 other matches.

 

Folk  will say, "but last season!!!" During our absolute worst 10 game stretch last season, we managed 7 points. We need to do 2 points better than our absolute worst last season  over our last 10 games and we should be fine.

 

Good work. Fits in with my thinking.  The nine teams below are drawing on average every 3rd game. We're the odd one out at 1 in 7. Draws are a killer for the chasing  pack. Don't see this changing for them. So that should  be around 8points dropped by our closest rivals in the ten remaining  games add in a loss or two against the arse cheeks and your analysis is about right. For us we may see a few more draws as the nerves kick in. In effect  becoming a average  team. I would suggest we've done our good work and now will be 'drawn' across the line with a wee bit to spare...

[soonbe110]

2 hours ago, boag1874 said:

We’re odds on favourites to reach the semi final, luck of the draw could see us favourites to reach the final where anything can happen.

 

I know it’s not been the best week but jeezo, try & have a wee bit of optimism!
 

Plus even if we don’t win it, the maximum priority is making sure nobody outside the top 3 gets the chance to snatch Europe away from us which is the point I was making.

Morton are unbeaten in 17.  We could be without our two main defenders.  Greenock on a wet windy night and I’m not sure we will be odds on. 

[boag1874]

Just now, soonbe110 said:

Morton are unbeaten in 17.  We could be without our two main defenders.  Greenock on a wet windy night and I’m not sure we will be odds on. 

They're a championship side I couldn't give a **** if they're unbeaten in 27, we should be beating them 100/100 times, we're not a toiling bottom 6 side we're the 3rd best in the country with breathing room. If they beat us it's an utter embarrassment. That might sound arrogant but if we can't beat a Championship side I'd be ****ing fuming.

[Bindy Badgy]

3 hours ago, Muppetboy said:

We're not getting near a cup mate, don't worry

 

We've got a decent chance in Hibs manage to pull off a miracle and beat Rangers. We've beaten Celtic in Glasgow once this season. Don't see why we can't do it again.

 

 

[EIEIO]

Third place is sealed. European group stages are not. We need to progress in the cup and hope Aberdeen/Killie/Hibs don't get to the final (unless they are playing us obviousy).

[Percival King]

1 hour ago, Tour22 said:

 

With Killie to play us twice I wouldn't be saying there is no danger of it happening. County away and killie at home will be massive games. The gap could easily start to dwindle.

Yep, of course there's a possibility of it happening. Lots of things can happen between now and the end of the season, we could go on a poor run, Kilmarnock could go on a great run, Shankland could get injured and Vargas spends the rest of the season kicking the ball into the stand. Hopefully none of those things happen and we're definitely in a strong position. Despite what some pundits etc are saying (some of whom have written both Celtic and Rangers off as title winners at points this season), I'm hoping Naismith and the players aren't assuming that 3rd place is ours. Feels like deja vu from this time last year, and sorry to be boring, but having been at Dens in 1986, I never believe anything is achieved until it's actually achieved.

[cazzyy]

14 hours ago, Jamboross said:

My biggest concern is Killie look far more likely to pick up results in the post split games against the OF than we do. They've picked up 10 points from a possible 18 against them this season. We've managed 3 out of 15 and I don't see us improving that at the weekend.

 

We also still have to play Killie twice. We could quite easily lose both those games and that's obviously a massive swing in their favour in terms of points, confidence and momentum. 

 

I'm hopeful our last two games have been a slight blip and even if we get tanked by Celtic at the weekend we follow that up with Morton which should help to restore a little confidence so still pretty sure we'll get third. Can see it being a lot closer come May than it is just now though. 

 

You seem to be using form as an argument for Killie being a concern yet form has us 12 points clear of them. Fair enough if all the remaining games were just against the OF.

[cazzyy]

2 hours ago, Tour22 said:

 

With Killie to play us twice I wouldn't be saying there is no danger of it happening. County away and killie at home will be massive games. The gap could easily start to dwindle.

 

It could but the opposite is more likely.

[Chuck Berry]

2 hours ago, Turkishcap said:

Shanks not suspended for County game?

If so makes it harder.

6 bookings I think.

 

No.

[Chuck Berry]

So in theory, the last 5 fixtures it should look something like;

 

Rangers home

Celtic away

Killie away

St.Mirren home

Plus AN Other home or away

 

[Taffin]

It's already on ice.

 

If we fail to seal it again this year the board should walk. 

[Luckies1874]

15 minutes ago, Chuck Berry said:

So in theory, the last 5 fixtures it should look something like;

 

Rangers home

Celtic away

Killie away

St.Mirren home

Plus AN Other home or away

 

 

 

Looking at the fixtures Hibs are most likely to get 6th. 

[Nookie Bear]

15 hours ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

There's very little work left to be done to ice third.

 

Motherwell, Aberdeen, St. Johnstone, Ross County, and Livingston cannot mathematically finish level with or in front of us.

 

For the other four, here are their maximum theoretically possible points totals:

 

Killie: 70

St. Mirren: 69

Dundee: 65

Hibs: 64

 

But of course they're not winning all their matches. In their close run last season where they overtook us, Aberdeen won 28 points in 14 games, and realistically 2ppg is probably the absolute maximum any non-OF club can sustain even over its most purple patch.

 

Maxing out at 2 PPG, the best reasonably plausible points total for each team is:

 

Killie: 60

St. Mirren: 59

Dundee 54

Hibs: 53

 

We are currently on 52 points. Effectively, three wins should put third on ice.

 

To ice third, we need to beat St. Johnstone, Livi, and cobble together three points from any of 8 other matches.

 

Folk  will say, "but last season!!!" During our absolute worst 10 game stretch last season, we managed 7 points. We need to do 2 points better than our absolute worst last season  over our last 10 games and we should be fine.

 

 

These clubs also have to play each other. Killie play Dundee and St Mirren in 2 out of their next 3 fixture before they come to Tynie.

[DC_92]

8 of Kilmarnock's 10 remaining games are against the current top 6. They would probably have to win at least 6 to be in the conversation. They've won 10/28 so far.

 

Even if they do manage those 6 wins, if we win 3/10 we're home and hosed. Even 2 wins and a couple of draws likely does it.

[Nookie Bear]

3 hours ago, Tour22 said:

 

With Killie to play us twice I wouldn't be saying there is no danger of it happening. County away and killie at home will be massive games. The gap could easily start to dwindle.

 

Chill. We haven't become a bad team overnight and why is County away suddenly harder than usual?

[Muppetboy]

1 hour ago, Bindy Badgy said:

 

We've got a decent chance in Hibs manage to pull off a miracle and beat Rangers. We've beaten Celtic in Glasgow once this season. Don't see why we can't do it again.

 

 

A cup woukd be great, but for me it's all about group stage European football.  Guaranteed revenue of 5 million or so ,year on year, would facilitate an ability to bring a better calibre of player than we currently have. Pulling away from the rest is our primary focus, only then can we look above us and at least make an attempt to cut the gap

[2205ian]

15 hours ago, Jamboross said:

My biggest concern is Killie look far more likely to pick up results in the post split games against the OF than we do. They've picked up 10 points from a possible 18 against them this season. We've managed 3 out of 15 and I don't see us improving that at the weekend.

 

We also still have to play Killie twice. We could quite easily lose both those games and that's obviously a massive swing in their favour in terms of points, confidence and momentum. 

 

I'm hopeful our last two games have been a slight blip and even if we get tanked by Celtic at the weekend we follow that up with Morton which should help to restore a little confidence so still pretty sure we'll get third. Can see it being a lot closer come May than it is just now though. 

Sorry to be pedantic, but no points are awarded for League Cup ko stage games.

 

Killie have taken 4 points off Celtic & 3 points off The Rangers this season in the League.

 

We need to get back on our run against non OF teams which will ensure 3rd place & in turn, keep progressing in SC

 

[Selkirkhmfc1874]

3rd pretty much wrapped up imo , us or the arse cheeks need to win the Scottish Cup though 

[jr ewing]

6 minutes ago, Selkirkhmfc1874 said:

3rd pretty much wrapped up imo , us or the arse cheeks need to win the Scottish Cup though 

Remember last season?

[Watt-Zeefuik]

6 minutes ago, jr ewing said:

Remember last season?

 

As mentioned in the OP, it would currently require both one of Killie or Mirren hitting the same run of form that Aberdeen hit last season over their best run (2ppg) and us being every bit as bad as we were over our worst 10 game stretch that season (7 points). If both of those hit, we could lose third by 1-2 points.

 

If basically we're any better than our worst last season OR any of the chasing clubs are any worse than Aberdeen last season, we get third.

[jr ewing]

Just now, Watt-Zeefuik said:

 

As mentioned in the OP, it would currently require both one of Killie or Mirren hitting the same run of form that Aberdeen hit last season over their best run (2ppg) and us being every bit as bad as we were over our worst 10 game stretch that season (7 points). If both of those hit, we could lose third by 1-2 points.

 

If basically we're any better than our worst last season OR any of the chasing clubs are any worse than Aberdeen last season, we get third.

I'd pick Kilmarnock. 

[Selkirkhmfc1874]

17 minutes ago, jr ewing said:

Remember last season?

Hard to forget that collapse buddy but a don't see lightning striking twice 

[jr ewing]

Just now, Selkirkhmfc1874 said:

Hard to forget that collapse buddy but a don't see lightning striking twice 

Sincerely hope you're right and our luck doesn't run out. 

[Tour22]

1 hour ago, Nookie Bear said:

 

Chill. We haven't become a bad team overnight and why is County away suddenly harder than usual?

 

Just think it will be a tough game, they are in a real scrap at the bottom, and it's the time of season where they must pick up points. 

[Watt-Zeefuik]

16 minutes ago, jr ewing said:

I'd pick Kilmarnock. 

 

Certainly the biggest threat IMO.

 

Let's just go win three games before the split and put it on ice.

[karipidis]

Defat at Ibrox and draw in a derby, hardly a disaster. Granted performances were not good enough but we all knew this overreaction was inevitable when we hit a stumbling block. We just need to keep doing what we were prior to these games and we will be fine. 

[jr ewing]

1 hour ago, karipidis said:

Defat at Ibrox and draw in a derby, hardly a disaster. Granted performances were not good enough but we all knew this overreaction was inevitable when we hit a stumbling block. We just need to keep doing what we were prior to these games and we will be fine. 

Very lucky last night. Not sure who'll step up on Sunday or even who the best XI are after Saturday and Wednesday. 

[Turkishcap]

3 hours ago, Chuck Berry said:

 

No.

Great!

[DC_92]

2 hours ago, jr ewing said:

Remember last season?

 

The gap was significantly smaller last season. We went on a bad run of results. Aberdeen went on an exceptional run of results over 8 or 9 games. If the same very unlikely event happens this year, we still finish 3rd.