Locking up third

[davemclaren]

30 minutes ago, jr ewing said:

Very lucky last night. Not sure who'll step up on Sunday or even who the best XI are after Saturday and Wednesday. 

Luckily you're not the manager then.  

[Nookie Bear]

3 hours ago, jr ewing said:

Sincerely hope you're right and our luck doesn't run out. 

Luck? 
 

The table doesn’t lie after 28 games , no matter how much it annoys you. 

[jr ewing]

43 minutes ago, davemclaren said:

Luckily you're not the manager then.  

Not sure either of us know 🤔 

[jr ewing]

10 minutes ago, Nookie Bear said:

Luck? 
 

The table doesn’t lie after 28 games , no matter how much it annoys you. 

Have you watched the games? 

[chrisyboy7]

1 minute ago, jr ewing said:

Have you watched the games? 

Have you watched the other teams games?   We are 3rd for a reason. 

[jr ewing]

Just now, chrisyboy7 said:

Have you watched the other teams games?   We are 3rd for a reason. 

True 

[davemclaren]

10 minutes ago, jr ewing said:

Not sure either of us know 🤔 

You and the manager or you and me? I don't that's for sure. I'm trusting the manager does   😄

[Hearts1975]

One game at a time. We need to focus on doing what got us here in the first place. Not looking any further than the weekend. 

We are still in a great position even although the last few games, we haven't played as well as we can.

 

We ust need to keep the momentum up, keep building the performances and ultimately keep winning games. We will be fine.

[karipidis]

1 hour ago, DC_92 said:

 

The gap was significantly smaller last season. We went on a bad run of results. Aberdeen went on an exceptional run of results over 8 or 9 games. If the same very unlikely event happens this year, we still finish 3rd.

 

 

 

This hopefully calms some of the unnecessary panic after a draw in a derby and gained points on our nearest rival. 

[FarmerTweedy]

21 hours ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

There's very little work left to be done to ice third.

 

Motherwell, Aberdeen, St. Johnstone, Ross County, and Livingston cannot mathematically finish level with or in front of us.

 

For the other four, here are their maximum theoretically possible points totals:

 

Killie: 70

St. Mirren: 69

Dundee: 65

Hibs: 64

 

But of course they're not winning all their matches. In their close run last season where they overtook us, Aberdeen won 28 points in 14 games, and realistically 2ppg is probably the absolute maximum any non-OF club can sustain even over its most purple patch.

 

Maxing out at 2 PPG, the best reasonably plausible points total for each team is:

 

Killie: 60

St. Mirren: 59

Dundee 54

Hibs: 53

 

We are currently on 52 points. Effectively, three wins should put third on ice.

 

To ice third, we need to beat St. Johnstone, Livi, and cobble together three points from any of 8 other matches.

 

Folk  will say, "but last season!!!" During our absolute worst 10 game stretch last season, we managed 7 points. We need to do 2 points better than our absolute worst last season  over our last 10 games and we should be fine.

 

The only team that can't catch us is Livingston. None of the others you mentioned in the bold bit will get to our current points total, but it's mathematically possible for them to do so.  Maths obviously not your strong point! 

[FarmerTweedy]

20 hours ago, Pasquale for King said:

We keep being outplayed by bottom 6 teams you have to worry about us managing that.

No we don't. That's utter nonsense. 

[FarmerTweedy]

20 hours ago, Ked said:

But still the stupid reactions from stupid posters.

Indeed.  At least one or two are surely trolling, but some people seriously need to see a therapist! 

[jamboinglasgow]

2 hours ago, DC_92 said:

 

The gap was significantly smaller last season. We went on a bad run of results. Aberdeen went on an exceptional run of results over 8 or 9 games. If the same very unlikely event happens this year, we still finish 3rd.

 

 

 

 

 

I think people dont appreciate how close a thing it was last season and required to spectacular events to happen and even then, if we had drawn with Aberdeen away instead of losing (or won against St Mirren instead of losing) or even if Rangers had beaten Aberdeen at Pittodrie, we would have finished third. For Kilmarnock to match Aberdeen they would have to step up their form dramatically. 

[FarmerTweedy]

20 hours ago, GinRummy said:

Fair summary. I do think we;ll get three points from Ross Count or St Mirren (if not both) and also Livi and think we’ll be ok for third. It’s just too early to be confident after last season. Beat Kilmarnock at home and it’s likely all over. 

It's too early to be saying 3rd is in the bag, but there's a difference between thinking it's job done already and being confident that we will get the job done, and it's by no means too early to be confident. 

[Watt-Zeefuik]

28 minutes ago, FarmerTweedy said:

The only team that can't catch us is Livingston. None of the others you mentioned in the bold bit will get to our current points total, but it's mathematically possible for them to do so.  Maths obviously not your strong point! 

 

Yes, it was a mistake, as I admitted further along the thread. I had done the calculation using the 2ppg as the "reasonable maximum" but then goofed and said the wrong thing when writing it out.

[FarmerTweedy]

9 hours ago, Turkishcap said:

Shanks not suspended for County game?

If so makes it harder.

6 bookings I think.

So 6 bookings away from a suspension then!

[Kalamazoo Jambo]

22 hours ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

There's very little work left to be done to ice third.

 

 

21 hours ago, Jim_Duncan said:

Ice Ice Baby

I’m glad you used that term as it comes up occasionally in the New York Times crossword but I never see it on Kickback!

 

[FarmerTweedy]

8 minutes ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

 

Yes, it was a mistake, as I admitted further along the thread. I had done the calculation using the 2ppg as the "reasonable maximum" but then goofed and said the wrong thing when writing it out.

Yeah, sorry, saw that and went to edit my post but it wouldn't let me!

[Watt-Zeefuik]

5 minutes ago, Kalamazoo Jambo said:

 

I’m glad you used that term as it comes up occasionally in the New York Times crossword but I never see it on Kickback!

 

LOL, Americans, what can you do with us . . .

 

1 minute ago, FarmerTweedy said:

Yeah, sorry, saw that and went to edit my post but it wouldn't let me!

 

No worries, it was certainly a mistake in the OP.

[Vlad Magic]

2 hours ago, jr ewing said:

Have you watched the games? 

How many accounts you got on here?

[jr ewing]

Just now, Vlad Magic said:

How many accounts you got on here?

 

Just now, Vlad Magic said:

How many accounts you got on here?

How many do you?

[King Of The Cat Cafe]

Looking at the league table, it's clear that Kilmarnock are being crippled by the same thing that ruined our charge for third last season - draws.

 

They have drawn 10 so far to our four and are 12 points behind us.

 

Only one team has drawn fewer than us this term, Rangers.

 

Last season over the 38 games we drew nine to Aberdeen's three and they finished three points ahead of us.

 

The message is clear: keep on winning.

 

[gordon simpson]

21 hours ago, Ked said:

But still the stupid reactions from stupid posters.

spot on 

[Vlad Magic]

35 minutes ago, jr ewing said:

 

How many do you?

1

 

How many people vouch for you on here?

 

I will answer your next question in advance. About 30.

 

You?

[Ked]

34 minutes ago, King Of The Cat Cafe said:

Looking at the league table, it's clear that Kilmarnock are being crippled by the same thing that ruined our charge for third last season - draws.

 

They have drawn 10 so far to our four and are 12 points behind us.

 

Only one team has drawn fewer than us this term, Rangers.

 

Last season over the 38 games we drew nine to Aberdeen's three and they finished three points ahead of us.

 

The message is clear: keep on winning.

 

Keep winning.

Love it

[jr ewing]

30 minutes ago, Vlad Magic said:

1

 

How many people vouch for you on here?

 

I will answer your next question in advance. About 30.

 

You?

Good for you 👍 

[Pasquale for King]

3 hours ago, FarmerTweedy said:

No we don't. That's utter nonsense. 

So Ross County didn’t outplay us? Nor Hibs, or Motherwell, or Aberdeen up there or Dundee (bottom 6 at the time)? We are constantly garbage in the first half, not just this season btw, and theres only so long you can get away with playing crap until the manager decides to play our best team/formation/tactics to win games. It cost RN the job, SN needs to fix it before it costs him that too 

[Pasquale for King]

4 hours ago, jamboinglasgow said:

 

 

I think people dont appreciate how close a thing it was last season and required to spectacular events to happen and even then, if we had drawn with Aberdeen away instead of losing (or won against St Mirren instead of losing) or even if Rangers had beaten Aberdeen at Pittodrie, we would have finished third. For Kilmarnock to match Aberdeen they would have to step up their form dramatically. 

Or had Clark not thrown in two goals away to Kilmarnock and home to Hibs. 

[Pasquale for King]

3 hours ago, King Of The Cat Cafe said:

Looking at the league table, it's clear that Kilmarnock are being crippled by the same thing that ruined our charge for third last season - draws.

 

They have drawn 10 so far to our four and are 12 points behind us.

 

Only one team has drawn fewer than us this term, Rangers.

 

Last season over the 38 games we drew nine to Aberdeen's three and they finished three points ahead of us.

 

The message is clear: keep on winning.

 

You’re right but we can’t keep on winning as we stopped that two games ago, we need to start winning again which looks a little harder to do than say.

[FarmerTweedy]

On 01/03/2024 at 00:09, Pasquale for King said:

So Ross County didn’t outplay us? Nor Hibs, or Motherwell, or Aberdeen up there or Dundee (bottom 6 at the time)? We are constantly garbage in the first half, not just this season btw, and theres only so long you can get away with playing crap until the manager decides to play our best team/formation/tactics to win games. It cost RN the job, SN needs to fix it before it costs him that too 

Ross County didn't outplay us.  They were probably slightly better in the first half and had a good spell in the second half after we'd been denied a stonewall penalty, took their two good chances in that spell, then we got our act together again and were the better team from that point on, got ourselves level and really should have won the game.

 

Hibs, I'll give you, they did outplay us a bit on Wednesday and we were fortunate to get the draw.

 

Motherwell?  Never in a million years. We were easily better than them, a ten minute spell at the start of the second half aside, although struggled for a fair while to cut open their defence. 

 

Aberdeen up there?  Yeah, certainly in the second half. 

 

Dundee?  Nope.  At home, there was very little in it in the first half other than them finishing their couple of good chances better than we did ours. In the second half, we totally outplayed them and could and should have scored about half a dozen at least.  Up there, there wasn't really an awful lot in it, they probably had a couple more good chances than us over the 90 that they missed, but they didn't outplay us. We were fortunate to win, but certainly were worth a draw.

 

We're not constantly garbage in the first half, we've usually played decent but with a frustrating lack of cutting edge in attack against teams defending in numbers.  Naismith's job isn't in any danger at all if we carry on playing as we have been, last couple of games aside, obviously. 

[chrystaf]

3 minutes ago, FarmerTweedy said:

Ross County didn't outplay us.  They were probably slightly better in the first half and had a good spell in the second half after we'd been denied a stonewall penalty, took their two good chances in that spell, then we got our act together again and were the better team from that point on, got ourselves level and really should have won the game.

 

Hibs, I'll give you, they did outplay us a bit on Wednesday and we were fortunate to get the draw.

 

Motherwell?  Never in a million years. We were easily better than them, a ten minute spell at the start of the second half aside, although struggled for a fair while to cut open their defence. 

 

Aberdeen up there?  Yeah, certainly in the second half. 

 

Dundee?  Nope.  At home, there was very little in it in the first half other than them finishing their couple of good chances better than we did ours. In the second half, we totally outplayed them and could and should have scored about half a dozen at least.  Up there, there wasn't really an awful lot in it, they probably had a couple more good chances than us over the 90 that they missed, but they didn't outplay us. We were fortunate to win, but certainly were worth a draw.

 

We're not constantly garbage in the first half, we've usually played decent but with a frustrating lack of cutting edge in attack against teams defending in numbers.  Naismith's job isn't in any danger at all if we carry on playing as we have been, last couple of games aside, obviously. 

But it seems that the players themselves accept that our slow and at times sloppy first half performances - at least the first 30 minutes - are not acceptable and need to be addressed.

[bobskeldon]

On 29/02/2024 at 20:33, FarmerTweedy said:

No we don't. That's utter nonsense. 

I think PFK is correct. We have beaten most of them BUT for large parts of most of these games the other sides have had a better shape, played more incisively, passed the ball quicker. If you haven’t seen that you aren’t watching!

[davemclaren]

8 minutes ago, bobskeldon said:

I think PFK is correct. We have beaten most of them BUT for large parts of most of these games the other sides have had a better shape, played more incisively, passed the ball quicker. If you haven’t seen that you aren’t watching!

...but we have beaten most of them. 

[Kennyfragg13]

All we have to do is win 3out off 10 games

[PaddysBar]

2 minutes ago, Kennyfragg13 said:

All we have to do is win 3out off 10 games

It’ll be done before the break. 

[Irufushi]

After last season I want it done as quickly as possible! 

[ShedBoy]

We have Killie at home and then St Mirren away in the same week. Win those two and it’s job done for me. Massive games. 

[skacel103]

2 hours ago, chrystaf said:

But it seems that the players themselves accept that our slow and at times sloppy first half performances - at least the first 30 minutes - are not acceptable and need to be addressed.

Maybe it's just me but I thought it's obvious that our tactic since promotion is to keep possession. This means we keep the ball and tire the teams out then we eventually score. Also it limits the other teams shot at goals. Teams always press us 1st half. Hence why we seem to start slow. 

 

[FarmerTweedy]

50 minutes ago, bobskeldon said:

I think PFK is correct. We have beaten most of them BUT for large parts of most of these games the other sides have had a better shape, played more incisively, passed the ball quicker. If you haven’t seen that you aren’t watching!

To a fair extent, you're right in much of what you say here BUT none of it makes PFK right. 

 

In most of these games, teams have been primarily defending while we've had most of the ball, and credit to them, they've generally been well organised and drilled, and maintained their shape well. And debit to us, we've lacked the guile and creativity to open them up, and that absolutely needs to be improved if we're going to "go to the next level".  As for the other teams playing more incisively and passing the ball quicker, that's often what happens when one team has loads of the ball and is camped in and around the other team's penalty box for large periods, and the other team hits on the break when it gets the ball, and has about 80% of the pitch in front of them to run and pass into.  None of this means we've been regularly getting outplayed though, that's just nonsense. 

 

I'm not trying to argue that everything we're doing is great, and we don't need to improve, there's definitely lots of scope to improve and we absolutely need to look to do so, with adding more guile and creativity being really important, and we could do with moving the ball more quickly at times too. Hopefully, Dhanda will help us here next season, and Barrie McKay at some point too if he can get over his injury problems. Naismith has talked repeatedly about needing to do better going forward too, so I think we can be confident that the coaching staff are working on that, although obviously that doesn't automatically mean that we'll see that improvement! 

 

[FarmerTweedy]

3 hours ago, chrystaf said:

But it seems that the players themselves accept that our slow and at times sloppy first half performances - at least the first 30 minutes - are not acceptable and need to be addressed.

I'm not arguing first half performances don't need to improve. I'm arguing that we're not being regularly outplayed. Because we aren't. 

[Fozzyonthefence]

1 hour ago, ShedBoy said:

We have Killie at home and then St Mirren away in the same week. Win those two and it’s job done for me. Massive games. 

Win any 2 games and it’s job done.  No other team will get 58 points. 

[jamboinglasgow]

4 minutes ago, Fozzyonthefence said:

Win any 2 games and it’s job done.  No other team will get 58 points. 

 

You could be right, still think 3 wins would wrap it up.

 

As it stands the most any team below us can get is 69 points. So 70 points would require 18 points, or 6 wins from our last 10 games. If we were to beat St Mirren as one of our wins, then it require only 5 wins (St Mirren game included.) Same points stand for Kilmarnock.

 

Basically regardless how tomorrow goes, its about getting back to the form we showed before against the non-Old Firm teams when we play the remaining fixtures before the split.

[karipidis]

Ross County away and Killie St Mirren next league games seems pivotal. We win our game then it’s pretty much done. Only team who looks capable of putting a result together at the moment is Hibs and they are too far behind to even be in with a remote chance of catching us. 

[pettigrewsstylist]

1 hour ago, ShedBoy said:

We have Killie at home and then St Mirren away in the same week. Win those two and it’s job done for me. Massive games. 

Stopping them winning them would see us in extremely strong position, presuming we beat Livi.

[Lone Striker]

1 hour ago, ShedBoy said:

We have Killie at home and then St Mirren away in the same week. Win those two and it’s job done for me. Massive games. 

They are indeed.  We were lucky to get a 0-0 draw at home to Killie back in August  - McInnes has them playing very solidly and they carry a real goal threat too.      The 2 games that stick out as the most win-able  (pre-split) are both away - Ross CO and Livi.      I really hope we can break the 60 points barrier, even though we probably don't need to.

 

 

[Chuck Berry]

Just now, Lone Striker said:

They are indeed.  We were lucky to get a 0-0 draw at home to Killie back in August  - McInnes has them playing very solidly and they carry a real goal threat too.      The 2 games that stick out as the most win-able  (pre-split) are both away - Ross CO and Livi.      I really hope we can break the 60 points barrier, even though we probably don't need to.

 

 

 

Livi is a home game.

[Lone Striker]

4 minutes ago, Chuck Berry said:

 

Livi is a home game.

Doh !!  Mis-read the fixture list.  Thanks .....  definitely win-able then. 👍 

[Chuck Berry]

Beat Ross County, don't lose to Killie or St.Mirren, beat Livi

 

That puts us on 60 points (if none come from tomorrow), no other team will get 60 IMO.

[Lone Striker]

37 minutes ago, Chuck Berry said:

Beat Ross County, don't lose to Killie or St.Mirren, beat Livi

 

That puts us on 60 points (if none come from tomorrow), no other team will get 60 IMO.

Yes, I'd gladly accept that - and hopefully get a minimum of  4 points after the split too

[FarmerTweedy]

54 minutes ago, Lone Striker said:

They are indeed.  We were lucky to get a 0-0 draw at home to Killie back in August  - McInnes has them playing very solidly and they carry a real goal threat too.      The 2 games that stick out as the most win-able  (pre-split) are both away - Ross CO and Livi.      I really hope we can break the 60 points barrier, even though we probably don't need to.

 

 

Livi is at home, and we've got St Johnstone at home too, which I'd be inclined to say strikes me as more likely for us to win than Ross County away, even taking into account our away record so far this season! 

 

Edit: I see Livi has been covered already! 

Edited March 2 by FarmerTweedy