Locking up third

[Watt-Zeefuik]

There's very little work left to be done to ice third.

 

Motherwell, Aberdeen, St. Johnstone, Ross County, and Livingston cannot mathematically finish level with or in front of us.

 

For the other four, here are their maximum theoretically possible points totals:

 

Killie: 70

St. Mirren: 69

Dundee: 65

Hibs: 64

 

But of course they're not winning all their matches. In their close run last season where they overtook us, Aberdeen won 28 points in 14 games, and realistically 2ppg is probably the absolute maximum any non-OF club can sustain even over its most purple patch.

 

Maxing out at 2 PPG, the best reasonably plausible points total for each team is:

 

Killie: 60

St. Mirren: 59

Dundee 54

Hibs: 53

 

We are currently on 52 points. Effectively, three wins should put third on ice.

 

To ice third, we need to beat St. Johnstone, Livi, and cobble together three points from any of 8 other matches.

 

Folk  will say, "but last season!!!" During our absolute worst 10 game stretch last season, we managed 7 points. We need to do 2 points better than our absolute worst last season  over our last 10 games and we should be fine.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

It’s Hearts. 
Im a little concerned. 
The last two games we’ve dropped off a cliff. 

[Watt-Zeefuik]

2 minutes ago, Ron Burgundy said:

It’s Hearts. 
Im a little concerned. 
The last two games we’ve dropped off a cliff. 

Still work to be done for sure.

 

But we're nearly there.

[Famous 1874]

I don’t think we’ll win on Sunday but there has to be an application and an effort.

 

Loses against the old firm are far too normalised, especially at home. Obviously there is a major financial gap but teams worse than us often give them a far better game at their own grounds than us. Always just seem to concede early on and collapse. 
 

Can we please just see a fast start. No nonsense formation shite like we did tonight - with some complex fluid front 3, a slow shit winger on the right and nobody marking their number 10

[Jeremy Goss]

2 minutes ago, Ron Burgundy said:

It’s Hearts. 
Im a little concerned. 
The last two games we’ve dropped off a cliff. 

This. We never seem to do things the easy way. Expecting a hiding on Sunday to further dent the confidence. 

[SomethingAboutObua]

Im confused, can Aberdeen not get 60 points? 

[Jamboross]

My biggest concern is Killie look far more likely to pick up results in the post split games against the OF than we do. They've picked up 10 points from a possible 18 against them this season. We've managed 3 out of 15 and I don't see us improving that at the weekend.

 

We also still have to play Killie twice. We could quite easily lose both those games and that's obviously a massive swing in their favour in terms of points, confidence and momentum. 

 

I'm hopeful our last two games have been a slight blip and even if we get tanked by Celtic at the weekend we follow that up with Morton which should help to restore a little confidence so still pretty sure we'll get third. Can see it being a lot closer come May than it is just now though. 

Edited February 28 by Jamboross

[GinRummy]

If Killie win on Saturday and we lose against Celtic there’ll be 9 points in it. We play them at Tynie in a couple of weeks and it could be an important game

[Jim_Duncan]

8 minutes ago, SomethingAboutObua said:

Im confused, can Aberdeen not get 60 points? 

Doubtful 😄

[Jim_Duncan]

22 minutes ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

There's very little work left to be done to ice third.

 

Motherwell, Aberdeen, St. Johnstone, Ross County, and Livingston cannot mathematically finish level with or in front of us.

 

For the other four, here are their maximum theoretically possible points totals:

 

Killie: 70

St. Mirren: 69

Dundee: 65

Hibs: 64

 

But of course they're not winning all their matches. In their close run last season where they overtook us, Aberdeen won 28 points in 14 games, and realistically 2ppg is probably the absolute maximum any non-OF club can sustain even over its most purple patch.

 

Maxing out at 2 PPG, the best reasonably plausible points total for each team is:

 

Killie: 60

St. Mirren: 59

Dundee 54

Hibs: 53

 

We are currently on 52 points. Effectively, three wins should put third on ice.

 

To ice third, we need to beat St. Johnstone, Livi, and cobble together three points from any of 8 other matches.

 

Folk  will say, "but last season!!!" During our absolute worst 10 game stretch last season, we managed 7 points. We need to do 2 points better than our absolute worst last season  over our last 10 games and we should be fine.

 

Ice Ice Baby

[GinRummy]

27 minutes ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

There's very little work left to be done to ice third.

 

Motherwell, Aberdeen, St. Johnstone, Ross County, and Livingston cannot mathematically finish level with or in front of us.

 

For the other four, here are their maximum theoretically possible points totals:

 

Killie: 70

St. Mirren: 69

Dundee: 65

Hibs: 64

 

But of course they're not winning all their matches. In their close run last season where they overtook us, Aberdeen won 28 points in 14 games, and realistically 2ppg is probably the absolute maximum any non-OF club can sustain even over its most purple patch.

 

Maxing out at 2 PPG, the best reasonably plausible points total for each team is:

 

Killie: 60

St. Mirren: 59

Dundee 54

Hibs: 53

 

We are currently on 52 points. Effectively, three wins should put third on ice.

 

To ice third, we need to beat St. Johnstone, Livi, and cobble together three points from any of 8 other matches.

 

Folk  will say, "but last season!!!" During our absolute worst 10 game stretch last season, we managed 7 points. We need to do 2 points better than our absolute worst last season  over our last 10 games and we should be fine.

 

Do you mean st Mirren and Livi rather than st Johnstone?

[kila]

4 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

If Killie win on Saturday and we lose against Celtic there’ll be 9 points in it. We play them at Tynie in a couple of weeks and it could be an important game

 

Right after the international break too where a number of our players will be away on.

 

[GinRummy]

1 minute ago, kila said:

 

Right after the international break too where a number of our players will be away on.

 

Yeah I’m not over confident. If Dundee can get something at Home to killie on Saturday I’ll start to relax a wee bit. 

[jr ewing]

Been here before. 

[loveofthegame]

Failing to finish 3rd from here is a sackable offence. Simple as that.

 

Im very confident it won’t come to that. 

[henrysmithsgloves]

I'm sure the lads are working to make sure it doesn't happen ❤️❤️G❤️👍🏻

[heartsfc_fan]

4 more wins from our last 10 matches should comfortably see it.

[spacerjoe]

52 minutes ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

Motherwell, Aberdeen, St. Johnstone, Ross County, and Livingston cannot mathematically finish level with or in front of us.

 

Is that true?

 

Point taken in the rest though. 3 wins probably enough.

[boag1874]

We’ll finish third, this isn’t last season. No danger we see a 12 point swing in 10 games.

 

 

My biggest concern is making sure we don’t get beat off a non-of side in the cup

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

BTW, we are officially in the Top 6 and safe from relegation. No one else other than the gruesomes can say that.

[AlphonseCapone]

54 minutes ago, Ron Burgundy said:

It’s Hearts. 
Im a little concerned. 
The last two games we’ve dropped off a cliff. 

 

Last two games have been crap but we won't keep being as crap as that, plus these 3 games (OF and Hibs) were always going to be tough.

[Pasquale for King]

We will limp over the line if we keep starting slowly with the wrong team. 

[Pasquale for King]

9 minutes ago, heartsfc_fan said:

4 more wins from our last 10 matches should comfortably see it.

We keep being outplayed by bottom 6 teams you have to worry about us managing that.

[Jim_Duncan]

6 minutes ago, Geoff Kilpatrick said:

BTW, we are officially in the Top 6 and safe from relegation. No one else other than the gruesomes can say that.

Thank god for that. That Livvy team really look like they could put a strong run together 😁

[BackOfTheNet]

39 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

If Killie win on Saturday and we lose against Celtic there’ll be 9 points in it. We play them at Tynie in a couple of weeks and it could be an important game

Do have to say our games before the split seem a combination of tough and potential banana skins.

 

Celtic (H) - likely lose

Ross County (A) - potential banana skin, we’ve struggled there before

Kilmarnock (H) - BIG game this one potentially, they’ve already drawn against us at Tynecastle

St. Mirren (A) - certainly not a forgone conclusion

Livingston (H) - likely win

 

Only one I’m genuinely confident about would be the Livi game, and even then depending on their perilous position, they might be fighting hard for survival so you never know.

 

Based on our position and games we should be favourites in, a neutral would be expecting us to take anywhere from 10-12 points. But we know us, we know what can happen (like last year), it could genuinely be anywhere from 6-8 points out of that run too.

 

Main thing we’ve got to hope for is the others teams syphoning points from each other…

[Zico]

46 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

If Killie win on Saturday and we lose against Celtic there’ll be 9 points in it. We play them at Tynie in a couple of weeks and it could be an important game

Killie are the only team who look good enough to catch us if we go on a bad run. Big game at the end of March. 

[Ked]

But still the stupid reactions from stupid posters.

[pettigrewsstylist]

1 hour ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

There's very little work left to be done to ice third.

 

Motherwell, Aberdeen, St. Johnstone, Ross County, and Livingston cannot mathematically finish level with or in front of us.

 

For the other four, here are their maximum theoretically possible points totals:

 

Killie: 70

St. Mirren: 69

Dundee: 65

Hibs: 64

 

But of course they're not winning all their matches. In their close run last season where they overtook us, Aberdeen won 28 points in 14 games, and realistically 2ppg is probably the absolute maximum any non-OF club can sustain even over its most purple patch.

 

Maxing out at 2 PPG, the best reasonably plausible points total for each team is:

 

Killie: 60

St. Mirren: 59

Dundee 54

Hibs: 53

 

We are currently on 52 points. Effectively, three wins should put third on ice.

 

To ice third, we need to beat St. Johnstone, Livi, and cobble together three points from any of 8 other matches.

 

Folk  will say, "but last season!!!" During our absolute worst 10 game stretch last season, we managed 7 points. We need to do 2 points better than our absolute worst last season  over our last 10 games and we should be fine.

 

Deny killie and st liedoon wins in our 4 matches, should be enough.

[GinRummy]

24 minutes ago, BackOfTheNet said:

Do have to say our games before the split seem a combination of tough and potential banana skins.

 

Celtic (H) - likely lose

Ross County (A) - potential banana skin, we’ve struggled there before

Kilmarnock (H) - BIG game this one potentially, they’ve already drawn against us at Tynecastle

St. Mirren (A) - certainly not a forgone conclusion

Livingston (H) - likely win

 

Only one I’m genuinely confident about would be the Livi game, and even then depending on their perilous position, they might be fighting hard for survival so you never know.

 

Based on our position and games we should be favourites in, a neutral would be expecting us to take anywhere from 10-12 points. But we know us, we know what can happen (like last year), it could genuinely be anywhere from 6-8 points out of that run too.

 

Main thing we’ve got to hope for is the others teams syphoning points from each other…

Fair summary. I do think we;ll get three points from Ross Count or St Mirren (if not both) and also Livi and think we’ll be ok for third. It’s just too early to be confident after last season. Beat Kilmarnock at home and it’s likely all over. 

Edited February 29 by GinRummy

[BackOfTheNet]

3 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

Fair summary. I do think we;ll get three points from Ross Count or St Mirren (if not both) and also Livi and think we’ll be ok for third. It’s just too early to be confident after last season. Beat Kilmarnock at home and it’s likely all over. 

We certainly have the ability to get 12 points out of 15, and I’d be disappointed if we didn’t. But I know football isn’t that simple. We can take solace that any team in the top 6 will have to face each other after the split and therefore take points off each other. That being said, our post split record hasn’t been the best.

[GinRummy]

3 minutes ago, BackOfTheNet said:

We certainly have the ability to get 12 points out of 15, and I’d be disappointed if we didn’t. But I know football isn’t that simple. We can take solace that any team in the top 6 will have to face each other after the split and therefore take points off each other. That being said, our post split record hasn’t been the best.

There’s signs that the post split record might improve, maybe not against the OF but our away record is better so that might help.

[Watt-Zeefuik]

1 hour ago, GinRummy said:

Do you mean st Mirren and Livi rather than st Johnstone?

I meant County and Livi. Apologies I’m still recovering from COVID and I’m making stupid mistakes like that a bit more than usual.

[Watt-Zeefuik]

1 hour ago, spacerjoe said:

 

Is that true?

 

Point taken in the rest though. 3 wins probably enough.

Another brain fart. If you assume two points per game is the reasonable maximum, they can’t catch us. Not mathematically certain though.

[jamborich]

2 hours ago, Ron Burgundy said:

It’s Hearts. 
Im a little concerned. 
The last two games we’ve dropped off a cliff. 

Pretty confident the other clubs would rather be in our position you never no but I’m confident we won’t feck this up this time

[gregzy2k7]

I think we will win 4 draw 3 and lose 3

 

That would put us on 67 points and comfortably 3rd.

 

Out of the last 10 

I predict We will do the following 

 

Celtic (h) lose

Ross County (a) Win

Kilmarnock (h) Win

St Mirren (a) Draw

Livingston (h) Win

 

And assuming the top six is as follows,

 

Celtic (a) Lose

Rangers (h) Lose

Kilmarnock (a) Draw

St Mirren (h) Win

Dundee/hibs (h/a) Draw

 

I would add, I think hibs will now get in the top six instead of Dundee.

[gregzy2k7]

Double post.

Edited February 29 by gregzy2k7

[WDJ87]

2 hours ago, SomethingAboutObua said:

Im confused, can Aberdeen not get 60 points? 

Only if they win every game.

[fila]

get it wrapped up before the split, is what we need to do by winning 

[vegas-voss]

This three game run was always going to be hard realistically we were always looking at 1-3 points with 4 being a great result from them.

[Sir PH]

7 hours ago, jr ewing said:

Been here before. 

Don't start him, please. 

[spacerjoe]

5 hours ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

Another brain fart. If you assume two points per game is the reasonable maximum, they can’t catch us. Not mathematically certain though.

Ah gotcha

[boag1874]

1 hour ago, vegas-voss said:

This three game run was always going to be hard realistically we were always looking at 1-3 points with 4 being a great result from them.

How I see it

[theshed]

Killie were unlucky against rangers last night and could have won that on another night. 
 

Killie are our only challengers 

[Jim Panzee]

2 hours ago, vegas-voss said:

This three game run was always going to be hard realistically we were always looking at 1-3 points with 4 being a great result from them.

A level headed "cold light of day" post.

 

👍

[hearts00]

Third is over. Unless Kent is out and then agreed panic stations. 
 

 

[Dia Liom]

2 hours ago, vegas-voss said:

This three game run was always going to be hard realistically we were always looking at 1-3 points with 4 being a great result from them.

There was a thread on our points total from the three games and plenty folk were saying 5 points would be ok, fine, decent. Funny how confidence changes in football 🤠.

[manaliveits105]

In Shanks we trust 

[DG_HMFC]

9 hours ago, Ron Burgundy said:

It’s Hearts. 
Im a little concerned. 
The last two games we’ve dropped off a cliff. 

 

I'm not sure we have tbh, we've been Shite for a long time.

 

We haven't been great for a while, and many a time during our unbeaten run, the chat leaving the stadium was that if we were up against a decent side they would've beaten us.

 

We got scudded from Rangers, and if Hibs were a decent side they probably put 3 or 4 past us as well.

Edited February 29 by DG_HMFC

[Ron Burgundy]

5 minutes ago, DG_HMFC said:

 

I'm not sure we have tbh, we've been Shite for a long time.

 

We haven't been great for a while, and many a time during our unbeaten run, the chat leaving the stadium was that if we were up against a decent side they would've beaten us.

 

We got scudded from Rangers, and if Hibs were a decent side they probably put 3 or 4 past us as well.

I agree we have flattered to deceive in a lot of games but I just feel the last two we have looked particularly panicky. Our squad is clearly short of quality. 

[jamboinglasgow]

After Sunday we have 9 games left, only 2 of which are against the Old Firm. So its 7 games against non-Old Firm teams.

 

I know last two games have not been great but we have a good record this season (after a poor start) against non-old firm games. In our last 19 games against non-old Firm teams we have won 14 games, drawn 3 games and lost 2. 

 

I also think people are over-estimating Kilmarnock. I thought they had been really strong but looking at their last 10 games, they have won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 games. They dont lose many games, but they are dropping more points then people think. Our last 10 games have been 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss.