The 'Battle' for 3rd ( merged )

[Waterboy]

There have been a couple threads on here recently around 3rd place and what we'll need to secure it. Just out of interest I started pulling this together - I'll continue to update for my own benefit, but if anyone else finds it interesting I can continue to share.  It's obviously nothing groundbreaking but interesting all the same, in my opinion 😀

 

I guess in summary:

 

- We're doing well in comparison to our rivals vs the Old Firm.

- We're underperforming vs our rivals.

- We're performing strongly vs the bottom 6, and it's these results that are the driver behind our lead in 3rd.

- Given the gulf in resources between ourselves and the Old Firm, it always seems unlikely we'll ever get close to them - but if we can continue to perform against bottom 6 sides like we are, and improve some of results vs our rivals, we'd be a lot closer than you'd think. 

 

[Homme]

Really good work there. Thanks for posting. 

 

It'll be the usual here after a defeat on Sunday but you've just proved these matches have virtually no impact on our season.

[Wee Mikey]

Well done. 👍

[Norfolk and Chance]

Really good resource. Thanks for sharing

[Drew Wallace]

A wee bit of luck and we  might be thinking of better fair

 

I know ifs and ands were pots and pans 

 

But we are in good shape

And for me will only get better

[Homme]

The result v our 'rivals' are actually ok.

 

Only lost 2 in 7.  Draws are fine because they aren't gaining points on us.

 

The loss to Motherwell was negated by beating them twice. 

 

Against the OF we have the most points from our rivals too.

 

We are pretty much better than them in every department.vthe results v the rest are exceptional.

 

Edited February 5, 2022 by Homme

[Waterboy]

1 minute ago, Homme said:

The result v our 'rivals' are actually ok.

 

Only lost 2 in 7. 

 

The loss to Motherwell was negated by beating them twice. 

 

Against the OF we have the most points from our rivals too.

 

We are pretty much better than them in every department.

 

Agreed, they are okay - but my personal opinion is that with the squad we've put together, the improvements made behind the scenes, and the strong financial position we've gotten ourselves in to, we can do a lot better. Definitely the fixtures to target if we're to reach the 'next level'...

[JimmyCant]

10 minutes ago, Homme said:

Really good work there. Thanks for posting. 

 

It'll be the usual here after a defeat on Sunday but you've just proved these matches have virtually no impact on our season.

It some ways you are right I suppose, losing to the OF has no adverse impact on us because everyone else loses to them. On the other hand the impact of splitting the points with them over a season would be huge. It’s not over ambitious IMO and it’s doable. Every time we take a point from the OF, they have dropped two points.

 

Having said that, us taking anything on Sunday seems unlikely to me unless they are psychologically damaged by their last 2 results

[Mr Elwood P]

24 minutes ago, Waterboy said:

There have been a couple threads on here recently around 3rd place and what we'll need to secure it. Just out of interest I started pulling this together - I'll continue to update for my own benefit, but if anyone else finds it interesting I can continue to share.  It's obviously nothing groundbreaking but interesting all the same, in my opinion 😀

 

I guess in summary:

 

- We're doing well in comparison to our rivals vs the Old Firm.

- We're underperforming vs our rivals.

- We're performing strongly vs the bottom 6, and it's these results that are the driver behind our lead in 3rd.

- Given the gulf in resources between ourselves and the Old Firm, it always seems unlikely we'll ever get close to them - but if we can continue to perform against bottom 6 sides like we are, and improve some of results vs our rivals, we'd be a lot closer than you'd think. 

 

Brilliant post. 

[1971fozzy]

Superb work. Thank you 🇱🇻🇱🇻

[Homme]

9 minutes ago, Waterboy said:

 

Agreed, they are okay - but my personal opinion is that with the squad we've put together, the improvements made behind the scenes, and the strong financial position we've gotten ourselves in to, we can do a lot better. Definitely the fixtures to target if we're to reach the 'next level'...

 

We should always strive for better. It's the results v our rivals / OF that get the fans on board the most.

[jamboinglasgow]

31 minutes ago, Waterboy said:

 

Agreed, they are okay - but my personal opinion is that with the squad we've put together, the improvements made behind the scenes, and the strong financial position we've gotten ourselves in to, we can do a lot better. Definitely the fixtures to target if we're to reach the 'next level'...

 

agree that we can always do better. But also think we should forget how much we have progressed in such a short time. We were in the Championship last season, we have a massive turnover of players in the Summer, our rivals for third have had established periods to build on. We also have a smaller budget than Aberdeen and Hibs at the moment. Now success this season will improve all that further and we should expect to push ourselves further.

[Kiwidoug]

41 minutes ago, Homme said:

 

We should always strive for better. It's the results v our rivals / OF that get the fans on board the most.

Spot on.  

[Watt-Zeefuik]

Yeah, I did a retrospective thing on the Neilson thread and one interesting thing I found was that if we had taken full points against the bottom three teams in 97/98, we'd have won the league.

[Kiwidoug]

Very good research.  Confirms what most of us think I believe which is that we should be beating the lower level sides home and away and at the least, holding our own against Hibs and Aberdeen.  Pretty much anything we get from the OF is a bonus.

 

That doesn't mean we'll always beat St j or St M for example nor does it mean that we'll take nothing from the OF.

 

So far, the research shows that we've been doing that.

 

If we're reasonably lucky with injuries and suspensions, I think we'll sustain our current form to the split and probably improve on it.

 

Losing to Rangers won't be a setback in this scenario but failing to beat Dundee in midweek will be.

[karipidis]

Think the initial aim should be to improve the results against our ‘rivals’. 12 points we have dropped in those games. The consistency against the bottom 6 has been impressive though, despite what some people say the league is not easy. 

[Rattatooi]

Cracking post. Thanks Waterboy.

 

If we had rightly been given the penalties and red card in the Hibs game, we would most likely have topped the “v rivals” section as well. Always the if’s and buts, but it makes very positive reading.

[Captain Sausage]

Brilliant post @Waterboy 

 

Thanks!

[copa-mundial]

8 hours ago, Waterboy said:

There have been a couple threads on here recently around 3rd place and what we'll need to secure it. Just out of interest I started pulling this together - I'll continue to update for my own benefit, but if anyone else finds it interesting I can continue to share.  It's obviously nothing groundbreaking but interesting all the same, in my opinion 😀

 

I guess in summary:

 

- We're doing well in comparison to our rivals vs the Old Firm.

- We're underperforming vs our rivals.

- We're performing strongly vs the bottom 6, and it's these results that are the driver behind our lead in 3rd.

- Given the gulf in resources between ourselves and the Old Firm, it always seems unlikely we'll ever get close to them - but if we can continue to perform against bottom 6 sides like we are, and improve some of results vs our rivals, we'd be a lot closer than you'd think. 

 

 

Superb work waterboy. 

Brilliant breakdown of how it's panned out so far. 

 

 

[Bazzas right boot]

46 minutes ago, karipidis said:

Think the initial aim should be to improve the results against our ‘rivals’. 12 points we have dropped in those games. The consistency against the bottom 6 has been impressive though, despite what some people say the league is not easy. 

 

 

Agreed, but in the context of being newly promoted it's very good. 

 

Next season what you say will be the goal. 

 

 

[scott herbertson]

Excellent analysis and graphic  - thanks for sharing that

[TyphoonJambo]

Top top work. Appreciate your efforts mate 

[August Landmesser]

8 hours ago, Waterboy said:

There have been a couple threads on here recently around 3rd place and what we'll need to secure it. Just out of interest I started pulling this together - I'll continue to update for my own benefit, but if anyone else finds it interesting I can continue to share.  It's obviously nothing groundbreaking but interesting all the same, in my opinion 😀

 

I guess in summary:

 

- We're doing well in comparison to our rivals vs the Old Firm.

- We're underperforming vs our rivals.

- We're performing strongly vs the bottom 6, and it's these results that are the driver behind our lead in 3rd.

- Given the gulf in resources between ourselves and the Old Firm, it always seems unlikely we'll ever get close to them - but if we can continue to perform against bottom 6 sides like we are, and improve some of results vs our rivals, we'd be a lot closer than you'd think. 

 

Great stuff thanks, interesting record v the OF, off the top of my head Livi have the same record (W1 D1 L the rest) but worse GD, so we really are the best of the rest!

[Nelly Terraces]

Going off on a tangent somewhat, does anyone have any ideas how much 3rd place would be worth to us if we manage it & qualify for Europe, I’ve heard sums of around 2 or 3 million being mentioned, not sure how true that is but obviously hoping that it is as even the lesser figure would be huge for & enable us to strengthen further for next season & allow us to pull away further from the rest of the league, hopefully managing to secure 3rd regularly & have a shout for the cups as well.

 

Cheers!

[August Landmesser]

1 minute ago, Nelly Terraces said:

Going off on a tangent somewhat, does anyone have any ideas how much 3rd place would be worth to us if we manage it & qualify for Europe, I’ve heard sums of around 2 or 3 million being mentioned, not sure how true that is but obviously hoping that it is as even the lesser figure would be huge for & enable us to strengthen further for next season & allow us to pull away further from the rest of the league, hopefully managing to secure 3rd regularly & have a shout for the cups as well.

 

Cheers!

I think Europa League groups would be 2.5m (share of TV/sponsorship), plus bonuses for points gained/games won, Vanarama obvs a bit less, but still a decent chunk

[Waterboy]

9 minutes ago, August Landmesser said:

Great stuff thanks, interesting record v the OF, off the top of my head Livi have the same record (W1 D1 L the rest) but worse GD, so we really are the best of the rest!

Dundee Utd have also W1 D1, but yep your point still stands.

 

Interestingly, they've also beaten Hibs, Aberdeen and Motherwell this season, but lost twice to us. We like Dundee Utd

Edited February 5, 2022 by Waterboy

[Biffa Bacon]

I knew our wins away has been poor for decades, but I was surprised how few the others had managed, Hibs 3, Motherwell and Aberdeen only 2. Hearts have managed 4 so far.

[kingantti1874]

After this weekend our pre split old firm firm fixtures are over.. Aberdeen and hibs will have to play them another twice.. AND they both have to play each other and come to tynecastle.. 

 

id say 5 more wins secures third. 

[Zaba]

I would say it’s worth noting that we are the only team from our “mini league” to have played the OF 5 times as well.

 

After this weekend, we’ll have played our quota of 6 pre-split matches against them and Motherwell will have played 5. Hibs and Aberdeen will still have to play two more old firm games which, based on your table, is likely worth 0 points. More opportunity to pull away, perhaps.

[Zaba]

5 minutes ago, kingantti1874 said:

After this weekend our pre split old firm firm fixtures are over.. Aberdeen and hibs will have to play them another twice.. AND they both have to play each other and come to tynecastle.. 

 

id say 5 more wins secures third. 

Basically, yeah. Cheers 😂

[TyphoonJambo]

19 minutes ago, Biffa Bacon said:

I knew our wins away has been poor for decades, but I was surprised how few the others had managed, Hibs 3, Motherwell and Aberdeen only 2. Hearts have managed 4 so far.

And tomorrow makes 5

[gordiegords]

Incredible work!

[kingantti1874]

6 minutes ago, Zaba said:

Basically, yeah. Cheers 😂

😂 great minds 

[Rogue Daddy]

Interesting when you see it all broken down. Top work @Waterboy👍... we're definitely going in the right direction.

[No Idle Talk]

It's more of a bludgeoning than a battle at this point. 🙂

[Bazzas right boot]

41 minutes ago, Nelly Terraces said:

Going off on a tangent somewhat, does anyone have any ideas how much 3rd place would be worth to us if we manage it & qualify for Europe, I’ve heard sums of around 2 or 3 million being mentioned, not sure how true that is but obviously hoping that it is as even the lesser figure would be huge for & enable us to strengthen further for next season & allow us to pull away further from the rest of the league, hopefully managing to secure 3rd regularly & have a shout for the cups as well.

 

Cheers!

 

 

Conservatively £4-5m for Europa league and £2-£3m for conference. 

 

That's all in, prize money, TV money, gate receipts etc. 

 

 

[Bazzas right boot]

38 minutes ago, Biffa Bacon said:

I knew our wins away has been poor for decades, but I was surprised how few the others had managed, Hibs 3, Motherwell and Aberdeen only 2. Hearts have managed 4 so far.

 

 

We're 3rd in the away table and having played less games than many. 

 

I think this has been pointed out to many who go on about our away form. 

[jam doughnut]

Excellent analysis and graphic.

 

Quite revealing and a tad depressing that the 4 teams below have only managed to take 7 points out of 51 versus the old firm. 

[jamboozy]

Top work Waterboy, It’s interesting to note Livingston‘s results, anyone looking for an easy cup win would be better looking at these stats.

[Jack Torrance]

Nice work. Thanks for posting.

 

Just to throw fuel on the fire, it would be interesting to see a similar comparison for these clubs, based around who has refereed the games, to see if there's any trends.

 

 

[August Landmesser]

1 hour ago, Waterboy said:

Dundee Utd have also W1 D1, but yep your point still stands.

 

Interestingly, they've also beaten Hibs, Aberdeen and Motherwell this season, but lost twice to us. We like Dundee Utd

👍

 

[jamboozy]

5 minutes ago, Jack Torrance said:

Nice work. Thanks for posting.

 

Just to throw fuel on the fire, it would be interesting to see a similar comparison for these clubs, based around who has refereed the games, to see if there's any trends.

 

 

Ooh! Good shout Jack👍 I would be interested to see that.

looks like Waterboy’s work is cut out😁

[Getintaethem]

After Sunday, with 8 more games to the split, we’ll be the only team who won’t have to face the old firm again.

[N Lincs Jambo]

Brilliant OP from @Waterboy. It reflects our massive improvement this season. We're beating the teams we expect to beat, being close head to head with teams with similarish resources (Hibs, Aberdeen) and coming unstuck v the OF. I think we were very fortunate to get Celtic at home first game as Postecoglou hadn't had time to put his stamp on them. Not complaining though! Just checked the current league table and the difference between us and Rangers is 13 points (obviously down to 10 IF we win tomorrow) whilst the difference between us and Motherwell in 4th is 10 points. From Motherwell in 4th and Ross County in 10th the gap is also 10 points. 

 

For me we can only blow 3rd and I would prefer us to be aiming higher. Over the last 5 games we are 3 points better off than Rangers which will be 6 from 6 games if they lose to us tomorrow.

 

I read Kenny Dalglish's autobiography and he talks about momentum. Great when you have it, shit when you lose it.

 

In season 1974-75 Celtic were going for 10IAR. After 19 games they were on 34 points (2 points for a win) with 16 wins, two draws and one defeat. Rangers scudded them 3-0 at the start of January and in the remaining 15 games they lost 8, drew 3 and only won 4. Rangers scooshed the title by 7 points from Hibs with Celtic and Dundee Utd four points behind Hibs.

 

Now whilst everyone and his dog expects Rangers to beat us tomorrow just as they did at the start of the 2014-15 season, if we can beat them tomorrow we should be looking up at 2nd not thinking about protecting 3rd. FWIW despite Rangers only being 1 point behind Celtic, Celtic have momentum. Since they lost at Livi in September they have won 15 and drawn 3 of the last 18. That's championship winning form in any country. Even if we don't close the gap on Rangers I fully expect Celtic to win the title comfortably but I really would love it if we could nick the 2nd CL spot.

[TyphoonJambo]

1 hour ago, Jack Torrance said:

Nice work. Thanks for posting.

 

Just to throw fuel on the fire, it would be interesting to see a similar comparison for these clubs, based around who has refereed the games, to see if there's any trends.

 

 

Good shout. C'mon Waterboy get it done ya lazy git😀

For the record I couldn't even spell Eggsell spraidshite so well done. Loving your work

[davemclaren]

2 minutes ago, N Lincs Jambo said:

Brilliant OP from @Waterboy. It reflects our massive improvement this season. We're beating the teams we expect to beat, being close head to head with teams with similarish resources (Hibs, Aberdeen) and coming unstuck v the OF. I think we were very fortunate to get Celtic at home first game as Postecoglou hadn't had time to put his stamp on them. Not complaining though! Just checked the current league table and the difference between us and Rangers is 13 points (obviously down to 10 IF we win tomorrow) whilst the difference between us and Motherwell in 4th is 10 points. From Motherwell in 4th and Ross County in 10th the gap is also 10 points. 

 

For me we can only blow 3rd and I would prefer us to be aiming higher. Over the last 5 games we are 3 points better off than Rangers which will be 6 from 6 games if they lose to us tomorrow.

 

I read Kenny Dalglish's autobiography and he talks about momentum. Great when you have it, shit when you lose it.

 

In season 1974-75 Celtic were going for 10IAR. After 19 games they were on 34 points (2 points for a win) with 16 wins, two draws and one defeat. Rangers scudded them 3-0 at the start of January and in the remaining 15 games they lost 8, drew 3 and only won 4. Rangers scooshed the title by 7 points from Hibs with Celtic and Dundee Utd four points behind Hibs.

 

Now whilst everyone and his dog expects Rangers to beat us tomorrow just as they did at the start of the 2014-15 season, if we can beat them tomorrow we should be looking up at 2nd not thinking about protecting 3rd. FWIW despite Rangers only being 1 point behind Celtic, Celtic have momentum. Since they lost at Livi in September they have won 15 and drawn 3 of the last 18. That's championship winning form in any country. Even if we don't close the gap on Rangers I fully expect Celtic to win the title comfortably but I really would love it if we could nick the 2nd CL spot.

Very unlikely but a worthy ambition. 

[N Lincs Jambo]

7 minutes ago, davemclaren said:

Very unlikely but a worthy ambition. 

 

Totally agree that it is very unlikely but why not? Financial implosion at Ibrox?? Luvly jubbly!

[davemclaren]

4 minutes ago, N Lincs Jambo said:

 

Totally agree that it is very unlikely but why not? Financial implosion at Ibrox?? Luvly jubbly!

We can but hope. 👍

[Darkwhisky7]

Am I right in saying that 3rd gets us into the last qualifying round before the Europa League group stage, if we win that we go into the groups, worth 3-4 million minimum, if we lose that we go into the group stage of the Conference automatically, worth maybe 1.5-2 million? Also if we win the Scottish Cup does that change anything, would it make it easier to get into the group stages?

[skinnybob72]

In a nutshell, our away form against the bottom 6 is why we are clear in the race for 3rd. Normally it's our away form that's our downfall - shows what can happen when you start winning away.