The 'Battle' for 3rd ( merged )

[JimmyCant]

27 minutes ago, Darkwhisky7 said:

Am I right in saying that 3rd gets us into the last qualifying round before the Europa League group stage, if we win that we go into the groups, worth 3-4 million minimum, if we lose that we go into the group stage of the Conference automatically, worth maybe 1.5-2 million? Also if we win the Scottish Cup does that change anything, would it make it easier to get into the group stages?

1. If we finish 3rd AND one of the top 3 wins the cup we are in the play off for the Europa Cup Group stages, dropping into the Confernce league Group stages if we lose.

2. If we win the cup, league position doesn’t matter, we will be the same as above

3. If we finish 3rd and a team OUTWITH the top 3 wins the cup, we will be in Q3 of the Europa Conference, with 2 round to negotiate to get to the groups.

4. I’ve not even looked at what happens if we finish 4th and don’t win the cup. Conference League somewhere with an early start I would think

[Factuer Moi]

At this early stage in our resurgence, we are showing signs we have already grabbed the reigns of a very special era. Thanks  Waterboy , excellent work. 

[adso7]

3 hours ago, Nelly Terraces said:

Going off on a tangent somewhat, does anyone have any ideas how much 3rd place would be worth to us if we manage it & qualify for Europe, I’ve heard sums of around 2 or 3 million being mentioned, not sure how true that is but obviously hoping that it is as even the lesser figure would be huge for & enable us to strengthen further for next season & allow us to pull away further from the rest of the league, hopefully managing to secure 3rd regularly & have a shout for the cups as well.

 

Cheers!

If we get to group stages of either then you'd be looking at circa £5m additional income I reckon.

 

Three home games with gate receipts you'd think of circa £1-£1.5m. Plus:

 

Europa Conference:

For the 2021–22 season, group stage participation in the Europa Conference League is awarded a base fee of €2,940,000. A victory in the group pays €500,000 and a draw €166,000. Also, each group winner earns €650,000 and each runner-up €325,000. Reaching the knock-out stage triggers additional bonuses: €300,000 for the round of 32, €600,000 for the round of 16, €1,000,000 for the quarter-finals and €2,000,000 for the semi-finals. The losing finalists receive €3,000,000 and the champions receive €5,000,000.

 

Europa League:

For the 2021–22 season, group stage participation in the Europa League awarded a base fee of €3,630,000. A victory in the group pays €630,000 and a draw €210,000. Also, each group winner earns €1,100,000 and each runner-up €550,000. Reaching the knock-out stage triggers additional bonuses: €500,000 for the round of 32, €1,200,000 for the round of 16, €1,800,000 for the quarter-finals and €2,800,000 for the semi-finals. The losing finalists receive €4,600,000 and the champions receive €8,600,000.

[Nelly Terraces]

6 hours ago, August Landmesser said:

I think Europa League groups would be 2.5m (share of TV/sponsorship), plus bonuses for points gained/games won, Vanarama obvs a bit less, but still a decent chunk

 

2 hours ago, adso7 said:

If we get to group stages of either then you'd be looking at circa £5m additional income I reckon.

 

Three home games with gate receipts you'd think of circa £1-£1.5m. Plus:

 

Europa Conference:

For the 2021–22 season, group stage participation in the Europa Conference League is awarded a base fee of €2,940,000. A victory in the group pays €500,000 and a draw €166,000. Also, each group winner earns €650,000 and each runner-up €325,000. Reaching the knock-out stage triggers additional bonuses: €300,000 for the round of 32, €600,000 for the round of 16, €1,000,000 for the quarter-finals and €2,000,000 for the semi-finals. The losing finalists receive €3,000,000 and the champions receive €5,000,000.

 

Europa League:

For the 2021–22 season, group stage participation in the Europa League awarded a base fee of €3,630,000. A victory in the group pays €630,000 and a draw €210,000. Also, each group winner earns €1,100,000 and each runner-up €550,000. Reaching the knock-out stage triggers additional bonuses: €500,000 for the round of 32, €1,200,000 for the round of 16, €1,800,000 for the quarter-finals and €2,800,000 for the semi-finals. The losing finalists receive €4,600,000 and the champions receive €8,600,000.

Thanks guys. Clearly we absolutely have to do everything we can to get that 3rd place as the potential sums of money available are game changing figures for us. 

[RENE]

3 hours ago, JimmyCant said:

1. If we finish 3rd AND one of the top 3 wins the cup we are in the play off for the Europa Cup Group stages, dropping into the Confernce league Group stages if we lose.

2. If we win the cup, league position doesn’t matter, we will be the same as above

3. If we finish 3rd and a team OUTWITH the top 3 wins the cup, we will be in Q3 of the Europa Conference, with 2 round to negotiate to get to the groups.

4. I’ve not even looked at what happens if we finish 4th and don’t win the cup. Conference League somewhere with an early start I would think

What if we lose in play off for Europa Cup group stages, how much do we get?

[JimmyCant]

Just now, RENE said:

What if we lose in play off for Europa Cup group stages, how much do we get?

£3m for getting to the conference group stages 

[RENE]

15 minutes ago, JimmyCant said:

£3m for getting to the conference group stages 

OK so we go straight into conference group stage. Ta.

[Factuer Moi]

3 minutes ago, RENE said:

OK so we go straight into conference group stage. Ta.

Win win all the way , what if we do better and finish second. 

Far greater sums of money than a shitty boxing bout on our pitch

Edited February 5, 2022 by Factuer Moi

[JimmyCant]

3 minutes ago, Factuer Moi said:

Win win all the way , what if we do better and finish second. 

Far greater sums of money than a shitty boxing bout on our pitch

I’ll leave you to look that up as a wee project since it’s not happening anyway.

[Factuer Moi]

1 minute ago, JimmyCant said:

I’ll leave you to look that up as a wee project since it’s not happening anyway.

True, was sarcasm though 

[Darkwhisky7]

2 hours ago, JimmyCant said:

£3m for getting to the conference group stages 

Wonga all the way! 😁

[jamboinglasgow]

After the results for Aberdeen and Hibs, you have they say they most likely blown any chance of third (we could still implode so wont rule them completely out.) When we are playing the old firm its vital for those teams to get wins. Even in getting fourth it was an ideal time for Hibs to get 3 points on the board and move above Motherwell, who will most likely lose to Celtic tomorrow. It at least would put pressure on them. 

 

We have done really well this season, but our rivals are imploding and at this rate would not be surprised if the top six at the split did not include Aberdeen or Hibs.

[Japan Jambo]

Thanks for working this up. Good to see some thoughtful analysis.

[davemclaren]

2 minutes ago, Japan Jambo said:

Thanks for working this up. Good to see some thoughtful analysis.

Unusual as well. 😄

[cookieboy]

there is no battle 

[FarmerTweedy]

20 hours ago, Waterboy said:

 

Agreed, they are okay - but my personal opinion is that with the squad we've put together, the improvements made behind the scenes, and the strong financial position we've gotten ourselves in to, we can do a lot better. Definitely the fixtures to target if we're to reach the 'next level'...

I'm not sure if, with the bit in bold, you mean that we could do better in future seasons, or that we should have done better this season. 

 

I think there's the potential to ultimately do a lot better in future, but the reality is that the squad is still very much a work in progress. There are at least a few who aren't really of the quality to go to that 'next level', assuming that is taking the challenge to the arsecheeks and trying to split them, or maybe even go one better!  And I think last summer's transfer business was almost certainly made more difficult by us having just been promoted than the coming transfer window will be, with us probably having just finished 3rd, and almost certainly having qualified for Europe, quite possibly with guaranteed group stage qualification!  Plus, it takes time (usually) to bring a squad together and for players to fully adjust to new leagues, new teammates, etc. 

 

So my view is that we've done probably about as well as we could have realistically been expected to so far this season, but that we can, and should, be able to push on further in the coming seasons, probably looking to get closer to the arsecheeks initially, and right in among them in time.

[alanbauld]

No reason why we cannot progress a reasonable distance in whatever competition we are in, out with the really top teams in Europe there is not much to be afraid of, motivated and with a strong team spirit we can do things.

[FarmerTweedy]

13 hours ago, Nelly Terraces said:

Going off on a tangent somewhat, does anyone have any ideas how much 3rd place would be worth to us if we manage it & qualify for Europe, I’ve heard sums of around 2 or 3 million being mentioned, not sure how true that is but obviously hoping that it is as even the lesser figure would be huge for & enable us to strengthen further for next season & allow us to pull away further from the rest of the league, hopefully managing to secure 3rd regularly & have a shout for the cups as well.

 

Cheers!

As long as ourselves or one of the arsecheeks wins the Scottish Cup, we'd go into the Europa League playoff round. Win that tie and we're in the Europa League group stage, with some really serious money to be made.

 

Based on this season's money, it's €3.63m (not £!) for being in the group for starters.  Then the 32 teams in the groups are ranked from 1st to 32nd on their coefficient, and each receives a multiple of €132k from 1x for the lowest to 32x for the highest!  Realistically, we'd be near or at the bottom!  There's then a 'market pool' payment which for any particular team seems to depend on a combination of how many countries have teams in the group stage, how many teams from their country are in, and whether they, or another participating team from their country, won their domestic cup!  As far as I can tell, Scottish clubs would share a figure probably in the ballpark of €3-4m, all of which would obviously be ours if we're the only Scottish team in, but if one of the arsecheeks drops in from CL qualifying it'd be 50/50 split if neither won the cup or 60/40 if one of them did. If both arsecheeks somehow  dropped in (which might not be possible depending on how this season's competitions go), it'd be 40/30/30 split (it wouldn't be possible for none of them to have won the cup)!   There's then another €210k per point scored in the group games.

 

Losing the Europa League playoff tie would drop us into the Europa Conference League group stage, where it's €2.94m for being in it, a €44,500 multiplier for the (1-32) coefficient rankings, and €166k per point picked up in the group stage. There doesn't seem to be a 'market pool' payment for the Conference League group stage. 

 

None of that includes what we could make from ticket and hospitality revenue, etc. I'd imagine about £500k from each home game would probably be a decent ballpark figure (I expect they'd all sell out), so with four guaranteed home games, that's around £2m from tickets, etc, plus probably about £2.5m minimum from the Conference League group stage, or about £4m minimum (and quite possibly more like £6m) from the Europa League group stage, and that's without picking up a point!

 

You're probably looking at making from £4.5m if we lose pretty much every game to £10m or more if we win the playoff tie then do even reasonably well in the Europa League group! 

 

It's really important though that if we don't win the Scottish Cup, one of the arsecheeks does, otherwise whoever does win the Scottish Cup will be looking forward to that payday (probably with a lot less ticket revenue)!

 

This is all assuming the following site is reasonably accurate! 

 

https://www.football-coefficient.eu/money/

[Waterboy]

1 hour ago, FarmerTweedy said:

I'm not sure if, with the bit in bold, you mean that we could do better in future seasons, or that we should have done better this season. 

 

I think there's the potential to ultimately do a lot better in future, but the reality is that the squad is still very much a work in progress. There are at least a few who aren't really of the quality to go to that 'next level', assuming that is taking the challenge to the arsecheeks and trying to split them, or maybe even go one better!  And I think last summer's transfer business was almost certainly made more difficult by us having just been promoted than the coming transfer window will be, with us probably having just finished 3rd, and almost certainly having qualified for Europe, quite possibly with guaranteed group stage qualification!  Plus, it takes time (usually) to bring a squad together and for players to fully adjust to new leagues, new teammates, etc. 

 

So my view is that we've done probably about as well as we could have realistically been expected to so far this season, but that we can, and should, be able to push on further in the coming seasons, probably looking to get closer to the arsecheeks initially, and right in among them in time.

 

I'm in agreement with you - this season has been above all of my expectations so far, but in terms of what we should be able to achieve in future seasons, I think we can do even better.

[Russ1977]

There is no race for 3rd. It’s done and dusted bar the biggest crumble in sporting history. 

[8skacel8]

3rd seems to be in the bag. After the Rangers game, we have a good run of fixtures up until the split. We will have 3rd confirmed by that point, if not before.

 

The Scottish Cup is so important for the European places next season. If us or the 2 arse cheeks win it then we are going to be quids in and this will be a game changer for the club. 
 

Obviously we want to win it. Thats why we need to get as many people at the game next weekend against Livingston to help the team into the quarter finals. Currently sales are pretty poor, for what is a very important match.

[FarmerTweedy]

9 hours ago, Factuer Moi said:

Win win all the way , what if we do better and finish second. 

Far greater sums of money than a shitty boxing bout on our pitch

The 2nd place team (whether they win the cup or not) isn't actually guaranteed any group stage. They go into Champions League qualifying with three rounds to get through. Lose in first and they drop into Europa League qualifying with two rounds to get through. Lose in the first of those and it's into the final round of Europa Conference League qualifying you go, and if you lose that, the passports can be put away for the season! 

 

I'm sure there's some prize money, etc, to be made from these qualifying rounds, even if you lose them all, plus ticket revenue, etc, obviously, and winning any of them gets you into the group stage of one of the competitions! 

[FarmerTweedy]

13 hours ago, JimmyCant said:

1. If we finish 3rd AND one of the top 3 wins the cup we are in the play off for the Europa Cup Group stages, dropping into the Confernce league Group stages if we lose.

2. If we win the cup, league position doesn’t matter, we will be the same as above

3. If we finish 3rd and a team OUTWITH the top 3 wins the cup, we will be in Q3 of the Europa Conference, with 2 round to negotiate to get to the groups.

4. I’ve not even looked at what happens if we finish 4th and don’t win the cup. Conference League somewhere with an early start I would think

For point 4, we'd just a round earlier in the Europa Conference qualifying, i.e. Q2, with 3 rounds to get through to get to the group stage. We'd probably be playing a team of Cypriot waiters or something, so no need to worry about that!

[FarmerTweedy]

4 hours ago, davemclaren said:

Unusual as well. 😄

It's funny cos it's true!

[FarmerTweedy]

2 hours ago, Waterboy said:

 

I'm in agreement with you - this season has been above all of my expectations so far, but in terms of what we should be able to achieve in future seasons, I think we can do even better.

Yep, exciting times ahead, I think.  I feel more optimistic now than I think I have since the early days of the Romanov regime and Burley's departure (or maybe Rix's arrival). We're not going to see the sort of flamboyant spending we did back then, but we're in the best place I can ever remember for being able to spend in a sustainable manner, and with people in the key roles who look capable of delivering the returns we should get on the park from that spending.  In addition to that, while there will always be some who don't rate whoever happens to be in the manager and sporting director positions going forward, we know the club's in safe hands now between the board and FOH, and that even if things don't go as well as we hope/expect on the park, there's absolutely no chance, for the foreseeable future at least, of us finding ourselves in a position of worrying about the very existence of the club again!

[ri Alban]

We should just concentrate on winning the cup from now on, if 3rd means less for Europe. Shocking.

[Harry Potter]

On 05/02/2022 at 00:02, Waterboy said:

There have been a couple threads on here recently around 3rd place and what we'll need to secure it. Just out of interest I started pulling this together - I'll continue to update for my own benefit, but if anyone else finds it interesting I can continue to share.  It's obviously nothing groundbreaking but interesting all the same, in my opinion 😀

 

I guess in summary:

 

- We're doing well in comparison to our rivals vs the Old Firm.

- We're underperforming vs our rivals.

- We're performing strongly vs the bottom 6, and it's these results that are the driver behind our lead in 3rd.

- Given the gulf in resources between ourselves and the Old Firm, it always seems unlikely we'll ever get close to them - but if we can continue to perform against bottom 6 sides like we are, and improve some of results vs our rivals, we'd be a lot closer than you'd think. 

 

Great stats bud, need more threads like this.

[Brighton Jambo]

Good work - thanks for posting.  I for one would certainly be interested in seeing this regularly as the season progresses.  

[JimmyCant]

8 hours ago, FarmerTweedy said:

For point 4, we'd just a round earlier in the Europa Conference qualifying, i.e. Q2, with 3 rounds to get through to get to the group stage. We'd probably be playing a team of Cypriot waiters or something, so no need to worry about that!

Or Maltese Postmen ?

[1971fozzy]

Imagine theoretically we could be wanting an arse cheek to win the cup (if we were to go out) . The horror of that 

[pettigrewsstylist]

So, if we exit the cup we have to root for one of the uglies to win it...painful.

[pettigrewsstylist]

Its quite some time since i looked at Europa League play off round and thought, when you take seeding into account, that we could compete in that round. I reckon Europa league Groups are beyond us nowadays.

Guess im therefore hoping uglies win the cup, if we cant.

Edited February 6, 2022 by pettigrewsstylist

[Factuer Moi]

11 hours ago, FarmerTweedy said:

The 2nd place team (whether they win the cup or not) isn't actually guaranteed any group stage. They go into Champions League qualifying with three rounds to get through. Lose in first and they drop into Europa League qualifying with two rounds to get through. Lose in the first of those and it's into the final round of Europa Conference League qualifying you go, and if you lose that, the passports can be put away for the season! 

 

I'm sure there's some prize money, etc, to be made from these qualifying rounds, even if you lose them all, plus ticket revenue, etc, obviously, and winning any of them gets you into the group stage of one of the competitions! 

We really are living the dream, it seems we have it good either way. As long as we take third, we avoid all other scenarios. Dunno though, would be cracking to finish with a second go at the Champions League qualifiers. This is a season out of nowhere, said it before. Someone said it was expected we would be where we are in the league. what a pile of shite talk that was.

What is the scenario if we finish third and win the SC. 

[jbee647]

13 hours ago, Waterboy said:

 

I'm in agreement with you - this season has been above all of my expectations so far, but in terms of what we should be able to achieve in future seasons, I think we can do even better.

Even just to stand still, ie remaining in 3rd place, we will need to constantly invest in the playing staff, bringing in better players and when our players move on, replacing them with comparable or better players

Aberdeen and Hibs etc won’t remain crap forever, they will at some point in time improve, by changing there management and recruitment.

We must always be one step ahead and never rest on our laurels, in the past when we have had a good side, within 2 years it’s been decimated.

First we must consolidate every year in third place, challenging for trophies, if we can do this for a period of at least 5 years, then and only then can we seriously consider challenging the old firm, however unfortunately that maybe only for a short period of time, as the old firm at that point would decimate our squad

[JimmyCant]

1 hour ago, pettigrewsstylist said:

Its quite some time since i looked at Europa League play off round and thought, when you take seeding into account, that we could compete in that round. I reckon Europa league Groups are beyond us nowadays.

Guess im therefore hoping uglies win the cup, if we cant.

Double edged sword for me. VERY favourable draw and it’s doable on our best day. And the money is huge. But then your in the group stage against big hitters and your going to take a few bloody noses.

 

It’s not just about US getting that slot. It’s also about stopping a close rival getting all that money. It’s game changing for future seasons and if we have to hope The OF win the cup (if we can’t) then for one day I’ll suffer it

 

Can you imagine someone like Partick or ICT winning the cup this year and getting the best part of £4 million for it ? You could probably BUY both clubs for that, and that scenario doesn’t seem fair given minnows can win the cup in 5 games with good draws

Edited February 6, 2022 by JimmyCant

[1971fozzy]

22 minutes ago, Factuer Moi said:

 

What is the scenario if we finish third and win the SC. 

just the same as it would be if we finish 3rd and an ugly sister win the cup. Play off for Europa Cup group stage. 
we don’t want anyone outside the 3 of us to win the cup if we finish 3rd

 

Hibs thankfully missed out last season because StJohnstone won the cup. Forever thankful to Saints for doing that.

Edited February 6, 2022 by 1971fozzy

[Bazzas right boot]

On 05/02/2022 at 09:45, jamboozy said:

Top work Waterboy, It’s interesting to note Livingston‘s results, anyone looking for an easy cup win would be better looking at these stats.

 

 

They've definitely improved since last at Tynecastle when quite frankly they looked like a poor championship side. 

[Factuer Moi]

3 minutes ago, 1971fozzy said:

just the same as it would be if we finish 3rd and an ugly sister win the cup. Play off for Europa Cup group stage. 
we don’t want anyone outside the 3 of us to win the cup if we finish 3rd

 

Hibs thankfully missed out last season because St Johnstone won the cup. Forever thankful to Saints for doing that.

What a spot to be in, we can do it. Such a big teasing pot of cash ahead. The part i love is we are doing things with Europe in mind. Not just hoping, we are aiming at it. Makes me feel great knowing we are working to a proper plan, with people on board who can guide us to it. 

Thanks for that information. 

[Bazzas right boot]

2 hours ago, 1971fozzy said:

Imagine theoretically we could be wanting an arse cheek to win the cup (if we were to go out) . The horror of that 

 

 

The most nervous case would be us the v the likes of Aberdeen in the final. 

 

The cup is priority but the winner is Litterally playing for millions of £ and game changing money. 

[jamboozy]

7 minutes ago, Bazzas right boot said:

 

 

They've definitely improved since last at Tynecastle when quite frankly they looked like a poor championship side. 

Definitely improved as you say, good result yesterday, they will be growing in confidence.

[1971fozzy]

3 minutes ago, Bazzas right boot said:

 

 

The most nervous case would be us the v the likes of Aberdeen in the final. 

 

The cup is priority but the winner is Litterally playing for millions of £ and game changing money. 

That’s a scenario that really would be off the scale.  However imagine an all Edinburgh final - ooooft

[Bazzas right boot]

7 minutes ago, 1971fozzy said:

That’s a scenario that really would be off the scale.  However imagine an all Edinburgh final - ooooft

 

 

I'd be quite confident we'd beat hibs😎

[FarmerTweedy]

1 hour ago, Factuer Moi said:

We really are living the dream, it seems we have it good either way. As long as we take third, we avoid all other scenarios. Dunno though, would be cracking to finish with a second go at the Champions League qualifiers. This is a season out of nowhere, said it before. Someone said it was expected we would be where we are in the league. what a pile of shite talk that was.

What is the scenario if we finish third and win the SC. 

Second would be cracking but there's absolutely no chance of it.

 

Finishing third and winning the cup is the same as finishing twelfth and winning the cup as far as Europe is concerned!  It's first and foremost winning the cup that brings the Europa League playoff round spot, not finishing third. Third place inherits the spot if the cup is won by one of the top two as they both go into the Champions League.

[Factuer Moi]

1 minute ago, FarmerTweedy said:

Second would be cracking but there's absolutely no chance of it.

 

Finishing third and winning the cup is the same as finishing twelfth and winning the cup as far as Europe is concerned!  It's first and foremost winning the cup that brings the Europa League playoff round spot, not finishing third. Third place inherits the spot if the cup is won by one of the top two as they both go into the Champions League.

Great information, sits well in my mind now. Winning the SC though, i would take that . 

[merseyjambo]

2 hours ago, JimmyCant said:

Double edged sword for me. VERY favourable draw and it’s doable on our best day. And the money is huge. But then your in the group stage against big hitters and your going to take a few bloody noses.

 

It’s not just about US getting that slot. It’s also about stopping a close rival getting all that money. It’s game changing for future seasons and if we have to hope The OF win the cup (if we can’t) then for one day I’ll suffer it

 

Can you imagine someone like Partick or ICT winning the cup this year and getting the best part of £4 million for it ? You could probably BUY both clubs for that, and that scenario doesn’t seem fair given minnows can win the cup in 5 games with good draws

Big Hitters - At present both Juve and Barca are in Europa Leagues spots. 
 

No bother for us there

[Waterboy]

Updated following the results at the weekend.  Aberdeen have let me down and dropped in to the bottom 6 - let's hope that's only temporary  In fairness, they have a game in hand, and I think are still more likely to finish top 6 than others round about them.

 

- Hearts record vs the Old Firm remains the strongest despite yesterday's defeat.

- Defeats against bottom 6 sides for Aberdeen and Hibs only worsens their situation.  It means that based on current averages, every time Hearts play a bottom 6 side, they gain 1 more point than either Aberdeen or Hibs did in those games.  As we play 18 games against bottom 6 sides each season, it means we're therefore on track to earn 18 points more than either of them during these fixtures alone.

 

 

Edited February 7, 2022 by Waterboy

[Gards]

Brilliant analysis and data.  Well done.

[August Landmesser]

This is brilliant @Waterboy, fast becoming my favourite thread!

Edited February 7, 2022 by August Landmesser

[Waterboy]

Updated following Aberdeen's game last night.  With the league now exceptionally close, and only 6 points separating 4th from 10th, it's tough to identify who our rivals for 3rd even are.  So have stuck with the same 3 for now, Motherwell remain one of the closest to us and have been up there all season, whilst Hibs and Aberdeen are likely to have similar budgets and aspirations to ourselves (compared to the other teams anyway).

 

In summary...

 

- Hearts defeat to Dundee was a shocker, but our record vs other 6 teams remains much stronger than any of our rivals.

- Hearts may struggle again this weekend based on form and the fact we've not beaten St Johnstone away over 90 mins in 16 attempts going back to 2010.

 

[CMc]

45 minutes ago, Waterboy said:

Updated following Aberdeen's game last night.  With the league now exceptionally close, and only 6 points separating 4th from 10th, it's tough to identify who our rivals for 3rd even are.  So have stuck with the same 3 for now, Motherwell remain one of the closest to us and have been up there all season, whilst Hibs and Aberdeen are likely to have similar budgets and aspirations to ourselves (compared to the other teams anyway).

 

In summary...

 

- Hearts defeat to Dundee was a shocker, but our record vs other 6 teams remains much stronger than any of our rivals.

- Hearts may struggle again this weekend based on form and the fact we've not beaten St Johnstone away over 90 mins in 16 attempts going back to 2010.

 

This is excellent! (Even if I’d like some of the recent updates to be different…)

 

It feeLs a bit like we had a purple patch at the start of the season and then have struggled once teams have figured us out. It looks like the others have also struggled. I guess playing everyone 4 times is likely to do this. 
 

The JS situation led to a bit of a shake up in January. I’m really hoping we improve in the rest of the 3rd round of fixtures as we settle. 
 

I guess the best bit of data is the other teams have slumped as we have, therefore maintaining our advantage.