Russia Invades Ukraine

[Cade]

47 minutes ago, scott herbertson said:

 

 

 

 

The Uk is far from supporting on its own - many EU countries have provided far more support per capita than the UK (particularly Germany and the Scandinavian/ Baltic countries)

 

This is a good factual site

 

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

 

The UK military support has been shrinking - probably because we have limited spare stuff, having cvut back for years now.

 

The spares is a very good point.

The West may have collectively supplied Ukraine with lots of surplus equipment, but precisely because it was old surplus equipment, we didn't have any large stocks of spare parts for it.

So once that bit of kit breaks down, they have to cannibalise other equipment to get replacement parts.

Which is one of the reasons that Ukraine is signing deals with western arms manufacturers to build new kit inside Ukraine.

The companies get a nice wee tax break and very short (i.e. non existent) delivery routes and Ukraine gets a discount on the kit produced and immediate delivery.

On top of that, Western governments can scale back their direct aid but continue to provide financial and humanitarian aid.

Weaning Ukraine off relying on handouts and building up their own arms industry.

 

[Cade]

The story of the killed Russian Major General in Krynky continues to develop.

The story now is that when he was assessing the situation on the front lines, he was shown a captured Western made IFV/APC.

He asked for a demonstration and took off on a joy ride to test the capabilities.

Unfortunately nobody told the Russian units in the area that a General was testing a vehicle.

They thought it was a Ukrainian advance and opened fire.

In a panic, the driver took evasive action directly into a Russian minefield, where the vehicle and General were both lost.

 

 2nd best army in the world

[henrysmithsgloves]

24 minutes ago, Cade said:

The story of the killed Russian Major General in Krynky continues to develop.

The story now is that when he was assessing the situation on the front lines, he was shown a captured Western made IFV/APC.

He asked for a demonstration and took off on a joy ride to test the capabilities.

Unfortunately nobody told the Russian units in the area that a General was testing a vehicle.

They thought it was a Ukrainian advance and opened fire.

In a panic, the driver took evasive action directly into a Russian minefield, where the vehicle and General were both lost.

 

 2nd best army in the world

Hibsit 🤣

[Cruyff]

Unfortunately, the US & to a lesser extent the EU have Ukraine over a barrel.

I'd imagine that Ukraine will only come to the negotiating table if they have security guarantees, e.g. NATO membership and probably EU membership. 

[Cade]

Ukraine was SUPPOSED to have security guarantees from The West as part of the deal made in 1993 to give their nukes to the Russians.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum

Oooooops.

 

 

Edited December 5, 2023 by Cade

[henrysmithsgloves]

16 minutes ago, Cade said:

Ukraine was SUPPOSED to have security guarantees from The West as part of the deal made in 1993 to give their nukes to the Russians.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum

Oooooops.

 

 

Now Putin has placed nukes back in Belarus....

[Mikey1874]

35 minutes ago, Cruyff said:

Unfortunately, the US & to a lesser extent the EU have Ukraine over a barrel.

I'd imagine that Ukraine will only come to the negotiating table if they have security guarantees, e.g. NATO membership and probably EU membership. 

 

Bit of a problem then. Russia absolutely will not let Ukraine join NATO. 

[Cade]

1 hour ago, henrysmithsgloves said:

Now Putin has placed nukes back in Belarus....

Presumably under security guarantees for Belarus BY Russia.

 

NATO have stated that Ukraine can join after the war, which means it has to win the war in order to join NATO.

Putin knows then that he cannot take a breath in Ukraine; he has to prosecute the war all the way to regime change in Ukraine and total victory, or he'll never get a 2nd chance at it.

So, NATO have upped the stakes on Ukraine's behalf there, which is why NATO needs to maintain support for Ukraine. We've provoked Putin to go all in.

If we abandon Ukraine to the Russians then they'll never trust us again.

And nations The West backstabs like that tend to hold a grudge and become a problem down the line. 
The bitterness that the abandoned people will feel will probably lead to a Russia-friendly government back in power and it ends up like Belarus.
Then it's Iron Curtain and Cold War for another 50 feckin years.

How many trillions were spent over those many decades in the last Cold War? And we're moaning about a few billion now?

 

[Cruyff]

1 hour ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Bit of a problem then. Russia absolutely will not let Ukraine join NATO. 

That's why it's called "negotiations". 

[henrysmithsgloves]

46 minutes ago, Cade said:

Presumably under security guarantees for Belarus BY Russia.

 

NATO have stated that Ukraine can join after the war, which means it has to win the war in order to join NATO.

Putin knows then that he cannot take a breath in Ukraine; he has to prosecute the war all the way to regime change in Ukraine and total victory, or he'll never get a 2nd chance at it.

So, NATO have upped the stakes on Ukraine's behalf there, which is why NATO needs to maintain support for Ukraine. We've provoked Putin to go all in.

If we abandon Ukraine to the Russians then they'll never trust us again.

And nations The West backstabs like that tend to hold a grudge and become a problem down the line. 
The bitterness that the abandoned people will feel will probably lead to a Russia-friendly government back in power and it ends up like Belarus.
Then it's Iron Curtain and Cold War for another 50 feckin years.

How many trillions were spent over those many decades in the last Cold War? And we're moaning about a few billion now?

 

Technically, NATO is not officially providing military aid,but just happens the countries that are helping are NATO members...

[Cade]

9 minutes ago, henrysmithsgloves said:

Technically, NATO is not officially providing military aid,but just happens the countries that are helping are NATO members...

 

Much in the same way as "neutral" nations are donating/selling weapons to other nations that then pass them on to either side.

Technically neutral but aye right.

[henrysmithsgloves]

Just now, Cade said:

 

Much in the same way as "neutral" nations are donating/selling weapons to other nations that then pass them on to either side.

Technically neutral but aye right.

Devil in the details 🥺

[Cade]

2 hours ago, henrysmithsgloves said:

Devil in the details 🥺

 

Plenty of sanctions busting going on too.

Lots of western nations are suddenly having massive spikes in exports to Central Asian nations, who may or may not be punting it on to Russia.

[Mac_fae_Gillie]

59 minutes ago, Cade said:

 

Plenty of sanctions busting going on too.

Lots of western nations are suddenly having massive spikes in exports to Central Asian nations, who may or may not be punting it on to Russia.

Many of these nations got most of thier kit from Russia but as it needs all it can get has stopped exporting.

[henrysmithsgloves]

2 hours ago, Cade said:

 

Plenty of sanctions busting going on too.

Lots of western nations are suddenly having massive spikes in exports to Central Asian nations, who may or may not be punting it on to Russia.

 

[jimbojambo]

On 03/12/2023 at 09:51, Sawdust Caesar said:

  Hide contents

Utter scum. It's not worth surrendering if that is the outcome, be as well fighting to the death.

I read that they had run out of ammunition and had no option but to surrender but agreed about the dregs that they are trying to eradicate from their country and their barbaric nature's. 

[Tommy Brown]

On 04/12/2023 at 18:10, Cade said:

So we spent all that money for......a Russian victory?

 

 

 

As I have said countless times, if they are allowed to win, the Russians will simply re-arm, reorganise then go again, either in Ukraine or in central Asia and re-conquer the Stans.
Then we have USSR Mk2 to deal with.

 

 

Totally the way I see it.

[Boris]

On 04/12/2023 at 18:10, Cade said:

 

 

As I have said countless times, if they are allowed to win, the Russians will simply re-arm, reorganise then go again, either in Ukraine or in central Asia and re-conquer the Stans.
Then we have USSR Mk2 to deal with.

 

 

 

Possible, but not sure how China may react to that?

[Boris]

4 hours ago, Jim_Duncan said:

Not to mention Tucci. 

Ogden ready to lend handers

Edited December 6, 2023 by Boris

[Cade]

Venezuela illegally annexes almost three quarters of Guyana.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67635646

 

See, this is what happens when you let people get away with illegal territorial annexations; other people start doing it too.

 

 

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

On 04/12/2023 at 18:10, Cade said:

So we spent all that money for......a Russian victory?

 

 

 

As I have said countless times, if they are allowed to win, the Russians will simply re-arm, reorganise then go again, either in Ukraine or in central Asia and re-conquer the Stans.
Then we have USSR Mk2 to deal with.

 

 

Going back months, I’ve posted numerous times saying this conflict was going nowhere. It was obvious because 

 

1) the counter offensive was making zero tangible progress

 

2) the west were not backing Ukraine in a way which was going to let them win.

 

The weapons given to Ukraine since the initial Russian offensive was repelled have done nothing more than given them the means to maintain a stalemate. That’s where it is now, where it’s been for ages and will remain for a long while yet.

 

The west didn’t really want to back Ukraine. It wanted to be seen to back Ukraine. If that meant defeat for Russia then great but the priority of NATO/the West has been to avoid getting actively involved in the conflict, even though it had good reason to.

 

Like you say, this will happen again. NATO will make the same idle threats but in reality, do nothing which brings about the right conclusion. NATO is a waste of time and, as far as I can see, will only ever jump to it if we’re literally talking about the end of civilisation. 

[Ulysses]

Why do people think the United States is about to stop backing Ukraine?

 

It's costing **** all compared to overall military spending.  The GOP nutsos in the House are opposing it, and opposing spending on Israel, but that's a negotiation ploy to get leverage on domestic political issues, and eventually it'll get sorted.  AFAIK the GOP aren't even quibbling at the amount, which will bog the Russians down for ages.

 

The point isn't to win, because that's too expensive and too risky.  The point is to keep the Russians tied up in knots and give them every opportunity to keep shooting themselves in the feet.

[Cade]

Ukrainian intelligence agents have assassinated a former Ukrainian MP who defected to Russia and scarpered to Moscow as soon as the full scale invasion was launched.

Since then he's been one of Russia's most prolific propagandists.

The intelligence cell machine gunned him in a park when he was on his morning run.

 

Ukraine's intelligence and special forces seem to be able to operate anywhere in Russia and hit various targets with impunity, and that's seriously embarrassing for Putin.

[AlimOzturk]

43 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

Why do people think the United States is about to stop backing Ukraine?

 

It's costing **** all compared to overall military spending.  The GOP nutsos in the House are opposing it, and opposing spending on Israel, but that's a negotiation ploy to get leverage on domestic political issues, and eventually it'll get sorted.  AFAIK the GOP aren't even quibbling at the amount, which will bog the Russians down for ages.

 

The point isn't to win, because that's too expensive and too risky.  The point is to keep the Russians tied up in knots and give them every opportunity to keep shooting themselves in the feet.

Your last point is how I feel. If the west wanted Ukraine to win we would have sent over the big weapons by now. 
 

 

[Jeff]

1 hour ago, Ulysses said:

Why do people think the United States is about to stop backing Ukraine?

 

It's costing **** all compared to overall military spending.  The GOP nutsos in the House are opposing it, and opposing spending on Israel, but that's a negotiation ploy to get leverage on domestic political issues, and eventually it'll get sorted.  AFAIK the GOP aren't even quibbling at the amount, which will bog the Russians down for ages.

 

The point isn't to win, because that's too expensive and too risky.  The point is to keep the Russians tied up in knots and give them every opportunity to keep shooting themselves in the feet.

 

The worry is of course what happens if/when Trump gets back into power.

[Jeff]

7 hours ago, Cade said:

Venezuela illegally annexes almost three quarters of Guyana.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67635646

 

See, this is what happens when you let people get away with illegal territorial annexations; other people start doing it too.

 

 

 

Can't help but think Bald & Bankrupt is to blame for all of this

[Ulysses]

19 hours ago, AlimOzturk said:

Your last point is how I feel. If the west wanted Ukraine to win we would have sent over the big weapons by now. 
 

 

 

True. Arming Ukraine well enough to win would be a very dangerous strategy for the West, because it could lead to an extreme action by one side or the other which would result in NATO being dragged into direct war with Russia.  The more logical course of action is to arm Ukraine well enough to mean that Russia has to commit enormous resources to that war and has almost no attack/projection capabilities elsewhere.

[Ulysses]

19 hours ago, Jeff said:

 

The worry is of course what happens if/when Trump gets back into power.

 

Indeed, and not just in Ukraine.

[Cade]

Russia failing to achieve its stated aims is a loss for them.

Russia failing to take more ground is a loss for them.

Russia having its army destroyed is a loss for them.

Russia being attacked at home is a loss for them.

Russia's economy in big trouble is a loss for them.

Russia losing international trade is a loss for them.

Russia refusing to negotiate is a loss for them.

Finland and Sweden joining NATO is a loss for Russia.

 

And on the other hand, all of those same factors are big wins for Ukraine.

On top of those factors, Ukraine has promises of future memberships of both the EU and NATO and is manufacturing western equipment inside its own borders.

 

Ukraine isn't negotiating as they still stand a good chance of degrading the Russians to the point where they can militarily liberate all "annexed" territories.

Russia isn't negotiating as that would be a sign of weakness and Russia doesn't do that.

The longer this has lasted, the higher the stakes have become and the less likely any negotiations have become.

It's all-in for both of them now.

[Japan Jambo]

On 05/12/2023 at 16:36, Cade said:

Presumably under security guarantees for Belarus BY Russia.

 

NATO have stated that Ukraine can join after the war, which means it has to win the war in order to join NATO.

Putin knows then that he cannot take a breath in Ukraine; he has to prosecute the war all the way to regime change in Ukraine and total victory, or he'll never get a 2nd chance at it.

So, NATO have upped the stakes on Ukraine's behalf there, which is why NATO needs to maintain support for Ukraine. We've provoked Putin to go all in.

If we abandon Ukraine to the Russians then they'll never trust us again.

And nations The West backstabs like that tend to hold a grudge and become a problem down the line. 
The bitterness that the abandoned people will feel will probably lead to a Russia-friendly government back in power and it ends up like Belarus.
Then it's Iron Curtain and Cold War for another 50 feckin years.

How many trillions were spent over those many decades in the last Cold War? And we're moaning about a few billion now?

 

 

Not just the Ukrainians. If America and to a much lesser extent the UK/France don't hold the course it'll massively undermine confidence in NATO itself. My concern with the US is that it's only reliable when it suits America.

[Sawdust Caesar]

We have the 'before' picture, wish we had the 'after' picture as I'd love to have seen how that played out, assuming the cameraman is still alive that is.

[Mikey1874]

Something from today's public phone in that Putin does every year (apart from last year).

 

He said Russia has 617,000 fighting in Ukraine. Earlier this week Ukraine said it has 600,000 fighters. 

[Cade]

In the south-east, Russia has declared the complete capture of Marinka.

Marinka has been on the front line since 2014.

The town is totally destroyed.

It's taken Russia two years to advance 5km to the other end of the town.

Surely an epoch defining victory.

 

In the north-east, the Russian push towards Kupiansk remains more or less where it was when they launched the offensive.

If you recall, this was the major offensive of the year, hyped up by the Russian media and ministries.

100,000 men, 1,000 tanks was the headline.

All of their best kit is up here. T-90M tanks, Terminator infantry support vehicles (of which only 23 have been built), BTR-90 APCs (of which only 12 have been built) and all their other most modern equipment is up here.

Unfortunately for the Russians, they have not had the propaganda they wanted from this offensive.

They've just gotten their best kit destroyed for no territorial gain.

 

Speaking of high losses for no gains, around Avdiivka things continue on as they have been for the last few weeks.

Russia launches raids, Ukraine cuts down the infantry and blows up the tanks.

Do it all over again the next day.

The only limiting factor on this front is the amount of ammunition that Ukraine has. The very small gains that Russia has made have only happened because the Ukrainians ran out of bullets.
Russia seems to be moving its heavy gear around, sometimes it's on the northern flank, sometimes its on the southern flank. All of it gets smashed by drones, javelins, mines and artillery.
The Russians seem to have finally understood their error in trying to advance through the pile of rubble that used to be an industrial estate in the centre of the Avdiivka sector.
Being nothing but a pile of rubble with no cover and being surrounded on three sides by Ukrainians, things have gone badly for them there and their attacks in that direction seem to have halted entirely.

 

In the south-west, Russia is also unable to dislodge the Ukrainian marines who crossed the river a month or so ago. Due to spotting and taking out Russian electronic warfare systems, the Ukrainian drone operators have total freedom on that side of the river. Russian artillery, tanks, APCs and troops are taken out as soon as they are spotted, before they even reach the contact line.
Russia has resorted to using air bombing to try to blast the Ukrainians out but the air force relies on information from the ground and communication between the two is poor.

Ground troops report that the air force constantly misses the targets they called, and the air force says "nope, mission was a success".

 

In the south, on the so-called "Tokmak front", things are as they were. The lines are holding steady and there probably wont be any more movement over the winter.

Same goes for Bakhmut.

 

In total, on all fronts, Russia is still losing around 1,000 casualties per day, about 10 tanks, a dozen artillery pieces and 20 APC/IFVs.

And they're barely moving.

If they try to continue their offensives through the winter then this will only get higher as weather conditions worsen.
Putin and the Russian commanders seem determined to bleed their army white.

They cannot sustain those kind of losses for long.

[Cade]

Putin has reiterated that his goals have not changed. 

Ukraine must be "denazified" and demilitarised as it poses an existential threat to Russian sovereignty.

There will be no peace until that happens.

So he's still going for regime change and a military solution.

In response, the NATO chief has stated:
"If Putin wins in Ukraine, there is real risk that his aggression will not end there.
Our support is not charity. It is an investment in our security.
The only way to reach a just and lasting solution is to convince President Putin that they will not win on the battlefield.

And the only way to ensure that President Putin realises that he is not winning on the battlefield is to continue to support Ukraine."

 

The EU is holding a summit to discuss future expansions and the war in Ukraine.

Zelensky is there in person.

 

[Cade]

EU votes to open formal accession talks with both Ukraine and Moldova.

 

Hungary did not vote. So much for Orban being "billy big baws" and vetoing the accession talks. Bluff called, arsehole put back in his box.

Edited December 14, 2023 by Cade

[Dirty Deeds]

This opinion piece has a different take to most as it suggests that an outright Russian victory is their worst outcome

 

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4356135-in-ukraine-time-is-not-on-russias-side/

 

I don't like it's conclusions for peace as it leaves a huge Russian footprint on Ukrainian land but I do wonder if today's EU good news is an early step to a peaceful settlement.

[Cade]

1 hour ago, Jim_Duncan said:

Huge amounts of corruption in both countries. Did joining the EU help sort out similar issues in Bulgaria?

 

They're only opening the formal process.

How long it takes for Ukraine and Moldova to meet the various levels dictated by the "chapters" of accession remains to be seen.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_Perceptions_Index

[redjambo]

1 hour ago, Cade said:

EU votes to open formal accession talks with both Ukraine and Moldova.

 

Hungary did not vote. So much for Orban being "billy big baws" and vetoing the accession talks. Bluff called, arsehole put back in his box.

 

I don't like Orban one bit, but his removing himself from the vote in order to allow it to pass, and then expressing why he thought it was a bad decision was a good move from him. It didn't feck everyone else up but it got his (invalid) points across. He should be accepting that he is an outlier to general EU consensus and doing more of that rather than throwing spanners into works.

[Cade]

Orban knows that Hungary NEEDS the multi billions of EU money that is currently on ice due to his authoritarian policies.

He may have been hoping to tie that cash into his voting for Ukraine and Moldova.

It seems that he's been telt.

He'll not permanently jeopardise all that cash. He'll have to climb down eventually. Hungary leaving the EU would mean never getting that money AND huge trade barriers being thrown up. Not sure he'd win another election if that happened.

I reckon a good 85% of the pish he comes out with is purely for the domestic market. Talking himself up as the "defender of Hungarian identity" when he's at home in order to win votes.

Then quite happily being smacked down at EU summits and telling his domestic audience that he tried.

[Jeffros Furios]

Russian *******s 

[Cade]

A couple of other points from the EU summit.

Georgia has been granted Candidate status (which Putin will LOVE!)

Bosnia&Herzegovina may be granted Candidate status at the next summit in March if they manage to comply with the membership criteria.

Candidate status means "may begin formal accession talks at some point in the future" so it's just a small transition step along the way. 

 

[Cade]

Orban blocks a new 50billions Euro aid package for Ukraine.

This money was coming from the main EU budget.

All the other 26 member states have said they'll just give the money themselves as individual nations so it's not coming out of the EU budget.

A new EU budget will be put together in March.

 

[henrysmithsgloves]

1 hour ago, Cade said:

Orban blocks a new 50billions Euro aid package for Ukraine.

This money was coming from the main EU budget.

All the other 26 member states have said they'll just give the money themselves as individual nations so it's not coming out of the EU budget.

A new EU budget will be put together in March.

 

Wonder how much of a kick back he's getting from Putin 🤔🤔

[Mikey1874]

Zelensky speaking just now in end of year Q&A. Military want another 500,000 soldiers. Its also the case they are looking at scheme for people to be demobilised after 2 or 3 years. A bit of PR here of course.

 

 

Edited December 19, 2023 by Mikey1874

[Cade]

Wee Vlad's been screeching about Nukes again.

He's also permanently staging more troops on the Finnish border. So that means less of them in Ukraine, so job done for NATO.
Once again he's doubling down on his wee "special military operation" saying that he's at war with The West who are waging a "hybrid war" against Russian sovereignty and Russia won't ever stop "taking what is ours"

 

but aye wi shud negotiate likesay

[Mikey1874]

 

[Maple Leaf]

3 hours ago, Mikey1874 said:

Zelensky speaking just now in end of year Q&A. Military want another 500,000 soldiers. Its also the case they are looking at scheme for people to be demobilised after 2 or 3 years. A bit of PR here of course.

 

 

IN WWII British soldiers were called up "for the duration".

 

I'm guessing that would not work for 2023 Ukraine.

[Cade]

It seems that Russia has finally gotten sick of being demolished in the north (towards Kupiansk) and in the south (Avdiivka).

 

They've moved lots of heavy armor down from Kupiansk and many troops up from Avdiivka.

They're now massing around Bakhmut again, including the remnants of Wagner that have signed regular Russian army contracts.

It seems that they have a force of 80,000 personnel plus hundreds of tanks ready to conduct a winter assault towards the next large town to the west of Bakhmut, Chasiv Yar.

 

Looks like Putin is not willing to halt operations for the winter, seeing as he has an "election" to "win" early next year.

He'll be demanding some sort of victory to aid his election chances, which is bad news for the Russian army and their families.
 

Ukraine will be hoping to get ammunition supplies increased to deal with this suicidal Russian nonsense.

It's not a lack of ability, strategy, tactics, equipment or manpower that's hobbling Ukraine.

It's simply a lack of ammo.

They kill Russians by the thousands until they run out of bullets then have no option but to step back and wait for the next delivery to the front lines.

Ukraine is expanding its production infrastructure as fast as it can but it needs its allies to pull the finger out and go into full production mode.

 

We heard direct from Putin himself this week that he believes Ukraine doesn't exist and is simply a renegade region of Russia and that his war goals have not changed one bit since he invaded.

It's time to stop fannying about and give Ukraine everything it needs to put Russia back in its box.

We don't want a resurgent, re-established USSR and another Cold War that lasts decades and costs trillions.

[Mikey1874]

Mainly defensive use I think

 

 

[Mikey1874]

Although there are a lot of difficulties, it does seen that air defence is improving. With the F16s above to come soon too.