Russia Invades Ukraine

[fabienleclerq]

21 hours ago, Sawdust Caesar said:

Well at least they got what it says on the tin, a few months back there was a video of a Russian soldier opening a tin can which was just filled with water, not sure what it was meant to hold but it wasn't water. 

 

Tbf, Moldovan guy u knew who basically considered himself Russian used to order pigs heads to eat!

[Cade]

Ukraine has crossed the river in force again at a town called Krynky, 20km further upstream from the previous landings at Poima and Pischanivka.

They've liberated the town and pushed out to dig in along the surrounding tree lines.

 

 

[redjambo]

1 hour ago, Cade said:

Ukraine has crossed the river in force again at a town called Krynky, 20km further upstream from the previous landings at Poima and Pischanivka.

They've liberated the town and pushed out to dig in along the surrounding tree lines.

 

 

 

Nice. I hope that they keep up the pressure and encourage another Russian "tactical withdrawal".

[Cade]

Now that Ukrainians are in three different locations on the east bank of the river, the Russians will have to redeploy some troops away from either defending the southern front or attacking the eastern and northern fronts.

If they don't do it right now then Ukraine will throw pontoon bridges up and bring some heavier gear over.

 

[Mikey1874]

Although the full extent of Russian atrocities is yet to be written (albeit there are already examples) there is already a fuller story from the relatively recent past - Afghanistan where they killed 1 million civilians.

 

This also has a little historical summary of Russian history.

 

https://publishing.cdlib.org/ucpressebooks/view?docId=ft7b69p12h&chunk.id=d0e5195#:~:text=Three considerations prompted the invading,be detached from the people.

Edited October 22, 2023 by Mikey1874

[Lone Striker]

Looks like Putin's request to Xi Jinping to stop exports of drones & components  could be starting to bite.    Hopefully Uncle Sam has a sustainable alternative supply chain.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67078089

[Sawdust Caesar]

That's some explosion!

[Sooperstar]

No idea how reliable this source is. Taken with a large pinch of salt. 

 

 

[milky_26]

13 minutes ago, Sooperstar said:

No idea how reliable this source is. Taken with a large pinch of salt. 

 

 

its an AI generated image first shown back in march

[Dirty Deeds]

1 hour ago, milky_26 said:

its an AI generated image first shown back in march

Plus I doubt even the Russians would resuscitate that ****.

[hughesie27]

Came from a telegram account supposedly run by an ex Kremlin employee.

[Cade]

Russian troops reportedly at the foot of the giant spoil heap north of Avdiivka.

They managed to get there by the genius tactic of sending wave after wave of men and machines at the Ukrainians until the Ukrainians ran out of ammo.

Several dozen tanks and IFVs and several thousand dead Russians later, they managed to get to the foot of the mound.

Russian commanders seem to not care about either the lives of their men or preserving their equipment.

Expending both in ludicrous amounts.

 

Meanwhile, south of Avdiivka, Ukraine has launched a counter offensive of their own and are chasing that wing of the Russian offensive back to their starting lines.

 

 

[Dirty Deeds]

57 minutes ago, Cade said:

Russian troops reportedly at the foot of the giant spoil heap north of Avdiivka.

They managed to get there by the genius tactic of sending wave after wave of men and machines at the Ukrainians until the Ukrainians ran out of ammo.

Several dozen tanks and IFVs and several thousand dead Russians later, they managed to get to the foot of the mound.

Russian commanders seem to not care about either the lives of their men or preserving their equipment.

Expending both in ludicrous amounts.

 

Meanwhile, south of Avdiivka, Ukraine has launched a counter offensive of their own and are chasing that wing of the Russian offensive back to their starting lines.

 

 

Stalin: “Quantity has a quality of its own.”

 

It's pretty obvious by now that the human cost is of no consequence to Putin.

[Cade]

4 minutes ago, Dirty Deeds said:

Stalin: “Quantity has a quality of its own.”

 

It's pretty obvious by now that the human cost is of no consequence to Putin.

 

So far they've been pressing ethnic minorities into the army, not white Russians.

They're even calling up migrants who have been given Russian passports in the last ten years.
Passports seized, forced to join the army under threat of having their citizenship revoked, deportation and not being allowed back.
They'll eventually have to start calling up white Russians from the big cities of western Russia, and that's when Russian public opinion will change.

 

The various private mercenary companies are the ones hiring the white Russians, for way more money then the government can offer.
They're considered elite units and thrown into the hardest fighting, which utterly destroyed Wagner over the previous winter.
And as we know, they're taking in prisoners who are given pardons for signing up, who are then expended as cannon fodder.

 

The conflict has turned into a positional war of attrition, and Russia is being bled dry.

UK intelligence briefing reckons 150,000-190,000 dead or permanently maimed and unable to fight.

290,000 total casualties. But that's just from the regular Russian army, not counting the private companies.

 

[periodictabledancer]

18 minutes ago, Dirty Deeds said:

Stalin: “Quantity has a quality of its own.”

 

It's pretty obvious by now that the human cost is of no consequence to Putin.

 10 deaths is a tragedy, 10,000 a statistic.

Or some such.

 

 

 

[Mikey1874]

Interesting to see a lot of supporters of Ukraine online presumably some based in Ukraine completely supporting Israel. Not wiling to consider the suffering of the Palestinians and simply basing it on the Hamas attack. 

 

Not sure what to make of that. Ukraine needs US support and US totally supports Israel. Where it might leave Ukraine longer term though. Probably just online stuff to be ignored. 

[ri Alban]

On 22/10/2023 at 17:51, Cade said:

Ukraine has crossed the river in force again at a town called Krynky, 20km further upstream from the previous landings at Poima and Pischanivka.

They've liberated the town and pushed out to dig in along the surrounding tree lines.

 

 

How do you know this stuff. Are you in Ukraine,  are you a spy.

[Nucky Thompson]

18 hours ago, Cade said:

 

So far they've been pressing ethnic minorities into the army, not white Russians.

They're even calling up migrants who have been given Russian passports in the last ten years.
Passports seized, forced to join the army under threat of having their citizenship revoked, deportation and not being allowed back.
They'll eventually have to start calling up white Russians from the big cities of western Russia, and that's when Russian public opinion will change.

 

The various private mercenary companies are the ones hiring the white Russians, for way more money then the government can offer.
They're considered elite units and thrown into the hardest fighting, which utterly destroyed Wagner over the previous winter.
And as we know, they're taking in prisoners who are given pardons for signing up, who are then expended as cannon fodder.

 

The conflict has turned into a positional war of attrition, and Russia is being bled dry.

UK intelligence briefing reckons 150,000-190,000 dead or permanently maimed and unable to fight.

290,000 total casualties. But that's just from the regular Russian army, not counting the private companies.

 

That sounds like a fairy story 

[Cruyff]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Lovecraft]

Some things never change.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67234144

 

 

[redjambo]

The new right-wing government in Slovakia has announced the end of military aid to Ukraine and will only give humanitarian aid from now on. They will also oppose EU sanctions if those sections harm Slovakia. Not entirely unexpected, and it won't make much difference (especially not when viewed against the potential threat to U.S. aid from the new House régime), but it doesn't do European unity much good when Hungary and Slovakia are putting up opposition to the EU helping Ukraine in the fight, while Austria and Switzerland are noping out of military aid due to "neutrality". But that's democracy, and hopefully Ukraine will have sufficient allies left to get the job done.

[Cade]

6 minutes ago, redjambo said:

The new right-wing government in Slovakia has announced the end of military aid to Ukraine and will only give humanitarian aid from now on. They will also oppose EU sanctions if those sections harm Slovakia. Not entirely unexpected, and it won't make much difference (especially not when viewed against the potential threat to U.S. aid from the new House régime), but it doesn't do European unity much good when Hungary and Slovakia are putting up opposition to the EU helping Ukraine in the fight, while Austria and Switzerland are noping out of military aid due to "neutrality". But that's democracy, and hopefully Ukraine will have sufficient allies left to get the job done.

 

As long as they spend the same on humanitarian aid as they did on military aid, then someone else will be ale to reduce the equivalent amount of humanitarian aid and increase their weapons supply.

Hopefully it'll balance out that way.

The one thing Ukraine needs right now is ammo.

Lots of ammo.

The Russians are throwing everything at them right now in stupid kamikaze attacks and the only reason they've managed to take any ground at all is because Ukraine keeps running out of ammo to mow them down and has to withdraw.

It's like Bakhmut last year all over again, with similar loss rates in terms of both men and machines.

 

Poland managed to elect a decent government, so that was a bit of a relief just when it looked like all of Eastern Europe was about to start leaning more towards allowing Russia to win the war.

Hungary continues to act the prick; not out of any real conviction but just so people realise it's still there. It's 100% attention seeking from them.

Biden's been wise enough to roll Ukraine, Taiwan and Israeli aid into a single package, which will dare the Republican trolls to block an aid bill for Israel. Smart move.

China's sending 6 ships into the Mediterranean too, purely for political posturing. 

North Korea has sent around 1,000 shipping containers of weapons and ammo to Russia. Whether it's worth a shite remains to be seen.
Iran and Russia are developing new longer range drones since Ukraine keeps blowing the shite out of Russian airbases.
And Russia did a nuclear strike drill because that kind of petulant willy waving is exactly what people winning wars do. Posturing and trying to look dead hard when your army is being reduced to drunken conscripts armed with surplus North Korean weapons from the 1970s.

 

[redjambo]

1 minute ago, Cade said:

 

As long as they spend the same on humanitarian aid as they did on military aid, then someone else will be ale to reduce the equivalent amount of humanitarian aid and increase their weapons supply.

 

 

Good point. Hopefully the Ukrainian supply chain is ramping up ammo production. To be honest, you would have thought that we should have done this a long while ago, but then again I imagine no-one thought that there would be a war of this nature going on for this long, particularly against a foe that uses its people as cannon fodder.

[Cade]

Russia started the war attempting a modern, Western-style "shock and awe" blitzkreig.

But they fecked it up and got stopped. Because their army wasn't good enough to do that kind of operation.
Then they melted on all fronts during the first big Ukrainian counter offensive. Because Ukraine was using modern tactics and western equipment.
So the Russians dug in over winter and went WW1 with trenches and artillery. Ukraine had to respond in kind and the war turned positional/attritional.
And this year the Russians are back trying what worked in WW2 with human wave attacks.

They care not how many men and machines are lost as long as the commanders can report back to their own political superiors that "town x" has been taken.
The Russians are obsessed with taking towns even though they have little strategic value.
Although they're mobilising more and more men all the time, they're losing equipment they can't replace and all their best men are dead. They're replacing quality with quantity. And even they can't do that forever. 

[Mikey1874]

9 hours ago, redjambo said:

The new right-wing government in Slovakia has announced the end of military aid to Ukraine and will only give humanitarian aid from now on. They will also oppose EU sanctions if those sections harm Slovakia. Not entirely unexpected, and it won't make much difference (especially not when viewed against the potential threat to U.S. aid from the new House régime), but it doesn't do European unity much good when Hungary and Slovakia are putting up opposition to the EU helping Ukraine in the fight, while Austria and Switzerland are noping out of military aid due to "neutrality". But that's democracy, and hopefully Ukraine will have sufficient allies left to get the job done.

 

 

[redjambo]

42 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

 

 

Now that's a shift in position. Might augur well for his ability as speaker, unless he's speaking with forked tongue.

[Boab]

9 hours ago, redjambo said:

 

Good point. Hopefully the Ukrainian supply chain is ramping up ammo production. To be honest, you would have thought that we should have done this a long while ago, but then again I imagine no-one thought that there would be a war of this nature going on for this long, particularly against a foe that uses its people as cannon fodder.

I disagree, Red.

I couldn’t see how this wasn’t going to go on for a very long time. The support for Ukraine is in the Russian’s long term strategy and they’ll keep going to test the Americans and others resolve to continue that support. I think that was evident even after Crimea was annexed.

 

[redjambo]

2 minutes ago, Boab said:

I disagree, Red.

I couldn’t see how this wasn’t going to go on for a very long time. The support for Ukraine is in the Russian’s long term strategy and they’ll keep going to test the Americans and others resolve to continue that support. I think that was evident even after Crimea was annexed.

 

Fair point. What I think I meant to say, perhaps, if I can wriggle around, was that it may have been difficult to predict that the war would be so attritional in terms of ammo, especially to predict that the Russians would actually resort to WW1 tactics of throwing hundreds of thousands of men into the meat grinder, treating them in such an expendable way as they have done. Ukraine should never have got to the stage of looking down at the bottom of an almost empty ammo barrel, and I suppose I'm trying to find excuses/reasons that that allies of Ukraine haven't adequately both reacted and planned ahead in order to keep them well stocked.

[Boab]

18 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Fair point. What I think I meant to say, perhaps, if I can wriggle around, was that it may have been difficult to predict that the war would be so attritional in terms of ammo, especially to predict that the Russians would actually resort to WW1 tactics of throwing hundreds of thousands of men into the meat grinder, treating them in such an expendable way as they have done. Ukraine should never have got to the stage of looking down at the bottom of an almost empty ammo barrel, and I suppose I'm trying to find excuses/reasons that that allies of Ukraine haven't adequately both reacted and planned ahead in order to keep them well stocked.

The barrel has a bottom and I’m sure the Russians will try to exploit that to their gain. The election of Mike Johnson must be a worry to Zelensky, as, with other right wing elements of the US government, he is opposed to more aid to Ukraine. 
If Putin is one thing, apart from other nefarious attributes, it’s his ruthlessness. This will go on for a while yet, which is a tragedy, and it’s effects globally far-reaching.

[Cade]

Russian central bank rises interest rates to 15%

 

Everything is going juuuust fine

 

 

[Cruyff]

3 hours ago, Boab said:

I disagree, Red.

I couldn’t see how this wasn’t going to go on for a very long time. The support for Ukraine is in the Russian’s long term strategy and they’ll keep going to test the Americans and others resolve to continue that support. I think that was evident even after Crimea was annexed.

 

The end game of this war is difficult to see or predict. This is maybe just the beginning. How terrifying is that thought. 

 

Chatter that Putin died today (I think it's just pish tbh) but there could be a number of coup attempts if he has/when he does or when he leaves office. A complete power vacuum if ever there was one. A very high potential for a war between breakaway regions in Russia. 

 

The break up of the Russian Federation could be catastrophic for peace and the power balance in the region, all those nukes etc... NATO might have to go in and secure those sites themselves. China might attempt a land grab for territory they claim is theirs. All sorts of scenarios. 

 

If Russia are under serious threat, there's a very real threat of nuclear Armageddon, especially if it's someone worse than Putin that takes over or if Putin himself gets to desperado stage. 

 

Then there's Belarus. That has a very high potential to become another battleground. 

 

As for Ukraine. They have a number of regions that are ethnically Russia, always have been. The Donbas and Crimea in particular. Even if they take those regions back, it's a N.Ireland situation for them. Democratically they'll have to give them some autonomy and they will always be pro-Russia. That's always going to be an issue now. 

 

There is a level of nationalistic sentiment and the hatred of Russia in Ukraine. It already existed pre 2014 but clearly they are now more united than ever. That could lead to persecution, forced displacement of ethnic Russians or worse, some good ole' fashioned ethnic cleansing. Ukraine could be a potential issue in the future, it's ripe for a far right party to take over. They could become a very powerful force, possibly more so than Poland. 

 

The only good outcome for everyone involved is a Democratic Coup in Russia. They withdraw or negotiate peace. Where there are free & fair elections and they start to face towards Europe and becoming part of it. That seems far fetched given their history. 

 

The probability of this ending well is extremely low. I don't think Ukraine can defeat Russia and Russia isn't moving forward. It's either a forever war or they will have to negotiate at some point. 

 

[Boab]

6 minutes ago, Cruyff said:

The end game of this war is difficult to see or predict. This is maybe just the beginning. How terrifying is that thought. 

 

Chatter that Putin died today (I think it's just pish tbh) but there could be a number of coup attempts if he has/when he does or when he leaves office. A complete power vacuum if ever there was one. A very high potential for a war between breakaway regions in Russia. 

 

The break up of the Russian Federation could be catastrophic for peace and the power balance in the region, all those nukes etc... NATO might have to go in and secure those sites themselves. China might attempt a land grab for territory they claim is theirs. All sorts of scenarios. 

 

If Russia are under serious threat, there's a very real threat of nuclear Armageddon, especially if it's someone worse than Putin that takes over or if Putin himself gets to desperado stage. 

 

Then there's Belarus. That has a very high potential to become another battleground. 

 

As for Ukraine. They have a number of regions that are ethnically Russia, always have been. The Donbas and Crimea in particular. Even if they take those regions back, it's a N.Ireland situation for them. Democratically they'll have to give them some autonomy and they will always be pro-Russia. That's always going to be an issue now. 

 

There is a level of nationalistic sentiment and the hatred of Russia in Ukraine. It already existed pre 2014 but clearly they are now more united than ever. That could lead to persecution, forced displacement of ethnic Russians or worse, some good ole' fashioned ethnic cleansing. Ukraine could be a potential issue in the future, it's ripe for a far right party to take over. They could become a very powerful force, possibly more so than Poland. 

 

The only good outcome for everyone involved is a Democratic Coup in Russia. They withdraw or negotiate peace. Where there are free & fair elections and they start to face towards Europe and becoming part of it. That seems far fetched given their history. 

 

The probability of this ending well is extremely low. I don't think Ukraine can defeat Russia and Russia isn't moving forward. It's either a forever war or they will have to negotiate at some point. 

 

That’s a pretty good summary and I agree with it completely. As regards Putin, there surely must be some “ black op “ skullduggery going on to at least remove him and attempt some kind of sea change. 
It’s when you research this and the Middle East…and elsewhere..conflicts, that it can look quite frightening, and it probably will be. 

[Mikey1874]

One of the less discussed war crimes. Ukrainian citizens in occupied areas forced to fight for Russia.

 

 

[Cade]

People in the "annexed" regions were "offered" a Russian passport.

Sounds nice until you realise that if they refused then they became 2nd class citizens in the stolen territories with them being placed at the back of the queue for just about everything, from humanitarian aid to social housing to jobs to everything else.

So of course most of them felt pressured into accepting a Russian passport.

Only then to find out that the conscriptions into the Russian army were heavily weighted to citizens of those stolen lands.

 

So their choices were;

1) Become a 2nd class citizen in an annexed region

or

2) Become a Russian citizen and get immediately called up to the Army to get blown to bits by your own former countrymen.

or

3) Leave the region and have your house, job and old and life taken over by a Russian immigrant

 

And on the opinion that the stolen lands will be like Northern Ireland should Ukraine win the war and have all stolen lands returned....

I don't think that will happen.

As the vast swathes of stolen land were liberated in the astonishing Ukrainian counter-offensive last year, most of the pro-Russian citizens simply left.

Much like the ethnic Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh, they chose to leave all on their own despite assurances of not being 2nd class citizens after the fact.

Some of the pro-Russian population only moved into more securely held parts of Russian occupied Ukraine.

Some fled all the way into Russia itself with no intention of ever returning.

I reckon we'll see a mass exodus of pro-Russians should the lands be returned following a Ukrainian victory.

Let's be clear on this point; these regions are only pro-Russian in the first place because during the USSR the native populations were forcibly removed and replaced with ethnic Russian settlers.

This is especially true of Crimea where the native Tatars were forcibly removed to Central Asia and their lands given to Russian immigrants.

So the claim that these regions have always been Russian is quite simply a lie.

Population transfer within the USSR was state policy, in order to stop uprisings. If you remove people from their land, you remove a major thing they have to fight for. If a fringe region is even a possibility of being rebellious and breaking away, you move the people deep within the USSR and replace them with rabid loyalists.
It was also a racist ethnic cleansing effort, to replace non-white ethnicities in nice fertile land with white Russian settlers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_transfer_in_the_Soviet_Union
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deportation_of_the_Crimean_Tatars

Edited October 29, 2023 by Cade

[Cade]

The Russian economy is still under immense pressure, with Putin signing various decrees trying to stabilise the Rouble.

Several large companies have been forced to convert their foreign currency reserves into Roubles.

International companies quitting the Russian market are being forced to sell their assets for Roubles.

Carlsberg tried to sell its Russian wing but Putin seized it before they could flog it.

This is all on top of the base rate of interest being hiked to 15%.

The sanctions are biting and these kind of one-off measures are only temporary sticking plasters.

 

On the ground in Ukraine, Russian losses of BTR armoured car/troop transports have taken a sudden upswing.

Analysts are trying to work out why. Have they run out of BMPs and having to field the more lightly-armoured BTRs? Are they using more BTRs because they hold more men than BMPs?
Whatever the reason for it, BTRs are exploding in large numbers and taking large numbers of Russian soldiers with them.

 

In the south-east, Russia continues to inch forward around Avdiivka, taking appalling losses for very little gain.
In the south-west, Russian troop transports are being annihilated by Ukrainian FPV drone operators who have stationed themselves on the east bank of the Dnieper. The Russians are trying to bring in more troops to dislodge the Ukrainian bridgehead but are being intercepted before they get close to the contact line.
On the Crimean peninsula, electronic warfare, air defence and naval bases continue to be hit by storm shadow and other long range missiles almost as fast as Russia can replace them. It's a serious drain on the Russians but they can't not replace them or risk leaving a wide open flank. So they'll keep feeding equipment to the Ukrainians.

On the so-called "Tokmak front", Ukraine is still pushing west around Robotyne to widen their front lines and stabilise the flanks.
Around Bahkmut, Ukraine also continues to make incremental gains and are demolishing large amounts of Russian equipment as the Russians try to counter attack and push Ukraine back over the railway. On this front the Russians seem to be using shorter ranged artillery systems which are easy prey for HIMARS and even FPV drone operators as they're easily within range.

 

 

[Cade]

Ursula von der Leyen is doing a whistlestop visit to Bosnia to advance EU accession (and, more importantly, EU funding) talks with Bosnia and also mentioned Serbia as part of the visit.
EU officials stated that it's time to stop appeasing Serbia as it's letting them drift further away from the EU and not closer.

This comes after high level meetings with Serbian officials last week, in which Serbia rejected a new US/EU plan for Kosovo.

 

Serbia's pro-Russian president responded by dissolving parliament and calling a snap election.

[BudgeUp]

@Cade

 

Until this war is over please don't stop. You're doing a service here. 

[Cade]

Russia, as last year, is attacking near Vuhledar with heavy armour.

And, as last year, they're being utterly destroyed by mines, artillery and ATGMs.

 

In Kherson region, the commander of the Russian forces stationed there has been removed and replaced with the guy that got fired after being chased over the river last year.

Perhaps they believe that his passion for redemption will inspire the Russian defenders to great feats, or something.

But I'm unsure as to the wisdom of returning a discredited commander to the front lines, especially on the front he lost so badly last time he was there.

 

On the northern flank of Avdiivka, the giant spoil heap is now disputed, with both sides blasting the shite out of it with heavy artillery and air dropped bombs.

Neither side can hold it and neither side can afford to lose it, so that's become a giant meat grinder for both of them.

It's by far the highest point for many miles around and as such is strategically important.

 

Analysts reckon that Russia is calling up around 20,000 people per month at the moment, and is suffering 16,000 losses every month.

So as far as Russian central command is concerned, it's still increasing the size of the army by 4,000 a month.

This does mean that the life expectancy for new recruits is rather short.

 

[Dirty Deeds]

2 hours ago, Cade said:

Russia, as last year, is attacking near Vuhledar with heavy armour.

And, as last year, they're being utterly destroyed by mines, artillery and ATGMs.

 

In Kherson region, the commander of the Russian forces stationed there has been removed and replaced with the guy that got fired after being chased over the river last year.

Perhaps they believe that his passion for redemption will inspire the Russian defenders to great feats, or something.

But I'm unsure as to the wisdom of returning a discredited commander to the front lines, especially on the front he lost so badly last time he was there.

 

On the northern flank of Avdiivka, the giant spoil heap is now disputed, with both sides blasting the shite out of it with heavy artillery and air dropped bombs.

Neither side can hold it and neither side can afford to lose it, so that's become a giant meat grinder for both of them.

It's by far the highest point for many miles around and as such is strategically important.

 

Analysts reckon that Russia is calling up around 20,000 people per month at the moment, and is suffering 16,000 losses every month.

So as far as Russian central command is concerned, it's still increasing the size of the army by 4,000 a month.

This does mean that the life expectancy for new recruits is rather short.

 

Another great post, just a comment re the discredited commander - he's stayed alive and is now more experienced so maybe not a bad choice !

 

Also, Russia clearly does not care about human losses as long as they have more cannon fodder in the pipeline.  This is perhaps their biggest advantage in this war.

Edited November 3, 2023 by Dirty Deeds

[Cade]

6 minutes ago, Dirty Deeds said:

Another great post, just a comment re the discredited commander - he's stayed alive and is now more experienced so maybe not a bad choice !

 

Also, Russia clearly does not care about human losses as long as they have more cannon fodder in the pipeline.  This is perhaps their biggest advantage in this war.

 

As said before, they attempted a Western-style "shock and awe" blitzkrieg at the very start of the invasion.
When that got demolished they reverted to type and went back to WW2 tactics of massive armoured columns and frontal human wave assaults.

They've turned it into a war of attrition, and life is cheap in Russia.

[Cruyff]

30 minutes ago, Cade said:

 

As said before, they attempted a Western-style "shock and awe" blitzkrieg at the very start of the invasion.
When that got demolished they reverted to type and went back to WW2 tactics of massive armoured columns and frontal human wave assaults.

They've turned it into a war of attrition, and life is cheap in Russia.

Latest maps. 

 

 

[AlphonseCapone]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/us-european-officials-broach-topic-peace-negotiations-ukraine-sources-rcna123628

 

Obviously a lot of unnamed sources etc but not inconceivable that this is being whispered now. Despite what they say, Western support from a financial and weapons perspective is not unlimited, it's not feasible, so if this stalemate or war of inches as they are calling it, continues into Spring and Summer next year, it'll be interesting to see how the narrative changes.

 

It also seems inconceivable that Ukraine would accept any peace that involves loss of land, but without Western support, they couldn't go on indefinitely so that offer of security from NATO (however that would work which I'm still not sure if it isn't proper membership) might be their best security option.

[Cade]

Letting Russia keep any of the stolen lands hands them the victory.

It will only embolden them.

Which means they'll do it again, probably in central Asia.

The Stans will be next.

Or Belarus.

Then it's right back to the days of the Iron Curtain and Cold War.

Which will cost The West significantly more money each year over a far longer period of time than providing weapons and training and humanitarian aid to Ukraine is costing right now.

 

We either spend a moderate amount on helping Ukraine put Russia back in the box now, or we spend a shit ton later during another Cold War.

[Dirty Deeds]

1 hour ago, Cade said:

Letting Russia keep any of the stolen lands hands them the victory.

It will only embolden them.

Which means they'll do it again, probably in central Asia.

The Stans will be next.

Or Belarus.

Then it's right back to the days of the Iron Curtain and Cold War.

Which will cost The West significantly more money each year over a far longer period of time than providing weapons and training and humanitarian aid to Ukraine is costing right now.

 

We either spend a moderate amount on helping Ukraine put Russia back in the box now, or we spend a shit ton later during another Cold War.

This all comes down to American public opinion and tragically they have a significant voting population that are bonkers.

[Mikey1874]

Hard to see how these would be any ceasefire or even any negotiations.

 

When Ukraine is smashing Russian navy and air forces at Crimea. When its killing thousands of Russian soldiers every week. When the people remain resilient. 

 

Preparing and discussing possible ends to war isn't the same. Ukraine has been doing that. 

 

 

[Footballfirst]

Reports in the last couple of hours that Ukraine may have lost as many as 20 men as a result of a missile strike during an awards ceremony, near the front line.

 

And I thought that it was just the Russians that did stupid things like that.

[Mikey1874]

On 04/11/2023 at 22:00, Footballfirst said:

Reports in the last couple of hours that Ukraine may have lost as many as 20 men as a result of a missile strike during an awards ceremony, near the front line.

 

And I thought that it was just the Russians that did stupid things like that.

 

More likely from Russian supporting Ukrainian spies and collaborators. A lesser reported major problem. 

 

This one too.

 

 

[Cade]

Storm Shadow 1

Russian ship 0

 

This attack was on the Kerch harbour in the shadow of the big bridge.
So the missile had to fly all the way across Crimea to hit it.

 

[Mikey1874]

Ukraine have confirmed and taken credit for this. No safe place. 

 

 

[Cade]

Ukraine has almost linked up all the bridgeheads along the east bank of the Dnieper around Kherson.

They've also been ferrying over some armoured light troop transports such as BTRs.

This has gone from harassing commando activity during the winter to a fairly serious, yet slow motion, crossing of the river in force.

 

On the other fronts, pressure has been taken off by the forced relocation of Russia's attack helicopters.
After hitting al the nearby airbases and destroying a good handful of the irreplaceable ka-52 ground attack choppers, Russia relocated them onto another airbase in the Rostov region.

Which, in turn, got hit a couple of days ago.

They've now moved the helicopters deeper inside Russian territory, meaning they cannot launch rapid reaction strikes on the active fronts any more.
Russia began the war with a couple of hundred of these machines. It's lost around 50 of them and the rest are now off the front lines.

 

Again today Russia has been banging on about nukes.

And chemical and biological weapons also, just for fun.

 

Edited November 8, 2023 by Cade