Russia Invades Ukraine

[redjambo]

21 minutes ago, Dusk_Till_Dawn said:

 

lots of deaths?

 

Hopefully that's not bloodlust, DTD. The main thing is that the boat is out of action.

[henrysmithsgloves]

 

[Sawdust Caesar]

Incompetent or drunk?

 

 

[Cade]

2 hours ago, Sawdust Caesar said:

Incompetent or drunk?

 

 

 

 

Yes

 

As far as we can tell, the Russians lost somewhere around 100 armoured vehicles of various descriptions during the attempted blitzkrieg, to a combination of mines, artillery and ATGMs

No full count of the loss of life has been made but estimates have it at several hundred.

They're still attacking, but without armour support now.

Which, as you can imagine, is not going so well.

Maybe the Russians are going to do another Bakhmut this winter and lose 100,000 men over the next few months to take one small town of little strategic value.

 

 

Edited October 12, 2023 by Cade

[henrysmithsgloves]

Says some things that just make you wonder 🤔

 

[Sawdust Caesar]

Talk about a close shave. 

 

 

[ri Alban]

22 hours ago, henrysmithsgloves said:

Says some things that just make you wonder 🤔

 

The Israeli president was under pressure,  now he's not. Funny that. 

 

 

 

[henrysmithsgloves]

3 hours ago, ri Alban said:

The Israeli president was under pressure,  now he's not. Funny that. 

 

 

 

Too true mate

[redjambo]

The Russians seem to be attacking more than normal. Perhaps they're trying to draw Ukrainians away from elsewhere on the front and stretch them, or they're going for motivational advances to try and demoralise the Ukrainians. It all seems to be ramping up, in any case. I suspect the Russians are afraid that they might not be able to hold on in the south west.

[Cade]

So far this summer/autumn, Russia has launched two major offensives.

The first one in the northern sector in the Luhansk region was widely publicised and they made a big thing about it.

1,000 tanks and 100,000 men were the headlines. All their most modern equipment (T-90 tanks, Terminator IFVs etc) were put on the front.

This massive offensive has achieved nothing.

 

So now they're tying for Avdiivka again, but didn't make a big media circus about it.

They've been attacking Avdiivka on and off since 2014.

And they're still no further forwards.

 

Ukraine has crossed the railroad south of Bakhmut and may be able to break out eastwards and outflank the city itself.

They're also still probing the three main villages on the Tokmak front, looking for a weak spot.

And Crimea is under constant drone and missile attack. This has diverted tons of Russian air defence to the peninsula and forced the Black Sea Fleet to scatter.

 

Both sides are trying to push forward in some areas and defend in others at the same time, attempting to make the enemy re-deploy troops away from certain places where they want to make a breakthrough.

 

Political support for Ukraine from the bampot eastern nations of the EU may be waning. The big nations remain solidly allied.

The Russian economy is still in deep doo-doo. They remain unable to replace any high tech gear they lose, and they're losing an awful lot of it, which is why they're buying stuff from North Korea.

 

Things are still on a knife edge but the advantage is still just about with Ukraine.

[Mikey1874]

1 hour ago, redjambo said:

The Russians seem to be attacking more than normal. Perhaps they're trying to draw Ukrainians away from elsewhere on the front and stretch them, or they're going for motivational advances to try and demoralise the Ukrainians. It all seems to be ramping up, in any case. I suspect the Russians are afraid that they might not be able to hold on in the south west.

 

Yup

 

 

[Mikey1874]

It's an offensive. Doesn't seem the Russians can do a proper major offensive. Though Ukrainian defences could now be very very good. 

[Mister T]

4 minutes ago, Jim_Duncan said:

Didn’t realise my missus had gone to join the Russian Army. 

Have to say with everything going on at the moment that lifted my mood 👏😃

[Cade]

Just in case people think this war is coming to a close or something.....

 

Ukraine are still on the offensive in the south (on the so-called Tokmak front), and are broadening their front by attacking towards the town of Kopani in the west as well as continuing to push to Verbova in the east and Novoprokopivka in the centre.

 

On the eastern front, they've also crossed the railway embankment south of Bahkmut which was the 2nd and final major obstacle (they crossed the canal a few weeks ago).

 

Russia is performing a major offensive around Avdiivka in the south east but are getting their teeth kicked in.

They're losing men and machines at rates not seen since their stupid Bakhmut assault last year.

 

Russia is also on the offensive in the north but this front is more of a slow burn, with nothing much happening other than lots of dead bodies and wrecked machinery.

 

On the Crimean front, Ukraine has captured and fortified all the oil rigs off the west coast and are launching constant drone and missile attacks on the peninsula which has forced the Russians to station more and more air defence here and away from the front. Which will become a big thing after the Ukrainians get their hands on F-16s in the next few months.

Russia has also scattered the Black Sea Fleet after several ships got hit.

No blockade of the Black Sea for Putin. They're not capable of that any more. Not bad for Ukraine, which has no navy.

 

Russian artillery shells fired per day is dropping rapidly. This is either because their artillery systems are being wrecked, or because they're running out of ammo, or both.

It remains to be seen what the recent deliveries from North Korea have brought.

 

So both sides are going for it before the big freeze hits, and as usual Ukraine is having the best of it.

 

[henrysmithsgloves]

 

[Sawdust Caesar]

15 hours ago, Cade said:

Just in case people think this war is coming to a close or something.....

 

Ukraine are still on the offensive in the south (on the so-called Tokmak front), and are broadening their front by attacking towards the town of Kopani in the west as well as continuing to push to Verbova in the east and Novoprokopivka in the centre.

 

On the eastern front, they've also crossed the railway embankment south of Bahkmut which was the 2nd and final major obstacle (they crossed the canal a few weeks ago).

 

Russia is performing a major offensive around Avdiivka in the south east but are getting their teeth kicked in.

They're losing men and machines at rates not seen since their stupid Bakhmut assault last year.

 

Russia is also on the offensive in the north but this front is more of a slow burn, with nothing much happening other than lots of dead bodies and wrecked machinery.

 

On the Crimean front, Ukraine has captured and fortified all the oil rigs off the west coast and are launching constant drone and missile attacks on the peninsula which has forced the Russians to station more and more air defence here and away from the front. Which will become a big thing after the Ukrainians get their hands on F-16s in the next few months.

Russia has also scattered the Black Sea Fleet after several ships got hit.

No blockade of the Black Sea for Putin. They're not capable of that any more. Not bad for Ukraine, which has no navy.

 

Russian artillery shells fired per day is dropping rapidly. This is either because their artillery systems are being wrecked, or because they're running out of ammo, or both.

It remains to be seen what the recent deliveries from North Korea have brought.

 

So both sides are going for it before the big freeze hits, and as usual Ukraine is having the best of it.

 

I've read/heard that some of the NK ordnance is garbage and unusable. Also their grad rockets are 1mm bigger than the ones Russia uses. Now you'd think 1mm is almost a negligible difference but there is video footage of Russians trying to pound grad rockets into the tubes by hitting the base of the rocket with lumps of wood as they don't properly fit. A former military bod, when watching the video, commented that he "wouldn't want to be anywhere near that grad launcher when they hit the fire button".

[Cruyff]

I saw that Russian artillery rounds per day have dropped to their lowest point in the war. 

 

I've also seen videos however of a lot of dead Ukrainian troops in positions they've held and from failed assaults. Both sides are just chucking meat at it. One day they might capture a square mile but then they lose it the next day. 

It's a stalemate and has been so for a long time now. 

[Dawnrazor]

27 minutes ago, Sawdust Caesar said:

I've read/heard that some of the NK ordnance is garbage and unusable. Also their grad rockets are 1mm bigger than the ones Russia uses. Now you'd think 1mm is almost a negligible difference but there is video footage of Russians trying to pound grad rockets into the tubes by hitting the base of the rocket with lumps of wood as they don't properly fit. A former military bod, when watching the video, commented that he "wouldn't want to be anywhere near that grad launcher when they hit the fire button".

😳😂 KABOOOOM!!!

[escobri]

[Cade]

Russia's latest lunacy has seen them attacking a giant spoil heap north of Avdiivka that has been fortified by Ukraine.

They're sending human waves to try to climb up the slope and they're just being cut down in huge numbers.

 

Not the smartest of chaps, the Russian military.

[Konrad von Carstein]

33 minutes ago, Cade said:

Russia's latest lunacy has seen them attacking a giant spoil heap north of Avdiivka that has been fortified by Ukraine.

They're sending human waves to try to climb up the slope and they're just being cut down in huge numbers.

 

Not the smartest of chaps, the Russian military.

Jeezo, that reads like one of Simon Scarrow's Roman Empire books describing the British tribes trying to overwhelm Roman formations...Carnage!

[Cade]

3 hours ago, Cruyff said:

I saw that Russian artillery rounds per day have dropped to their lowest point in the war. 

 

I've also seen videos however of a lot of dead Ukrainian troops in positions they've held and from failed assaults. Both sides are just chucking meat at it. One day they might capture a square mile but then they lose it the next day. 

It's a stalemate and has been so for a long time now. 

 

It's only a territorial stalemate.

It's a positional war of attrition since both sides spent all last year digging in.

But Russia is losing the war of attrition, by a long chalk.

They're expending men and machines at an astonishing rate with very little to show for it.

[Mister T]

2 hours ago, Cade said:

Russia's latest lunacy has seen them attacking a giant spoil heap north of Avdiivka that has been fortified by Ukraine.

They're sending human waves to try to climb up the slope and they're just being cut down in huge numbers.

 

Not the smartest of chaps, the Russian military.

The Battle of Loos being recreated in 2023.

[Cruyff]

53 minutes ago, Cade said:

 

It's only a territorial stalemate.

It's a positional war of attrition since both sides spent all last year digging in.

But Russia is losing the war of attrition, by a long chalk.

They're expending men and machines at an astonishing rate with very little to show for it.

 

Ukraine depends on external factors which they have no control over.

 

How can they fight an attritional war when they don't know if they will have an ally in the White House and in Congress for the next 4 years? It's just not possible for them. They're between a rock and a hard place when it comes to medium and long term goals. 

 

The minute US funding disappears and it could, Ukraine run out of ammunition in months, possibly weeks. It might not even lead to a lack of funding, it might be a case that Ukraine doesn't get ATACMS or F-16'S and they need these things to win. 

 

[Mikey1874]

First actual real chance of a ceasefire. As everyone watches the trial.

 

 

[Cade]

13 minutes ago, Cruyff said:

 

Ukraine depends on external factors which they have no control over.

 

How can they fight an attritional war when they don't know if they will have an ally in the White House and in Congress for the next 4 years? It's just not possible for them. They're between a rock and a hard place when it comes to medium and long term goals. 

 

The minute US funding disappears and it could, Ukraine run out of ammunition in months, possibly weeks. It might not even lead to a lack of funding, it might be a case that Ukraine doesn't get ATACMS or F-16'S and they need these things to win. 

 

 

Quite right, Ukraine is reliant on others to keep the supply lines open.

But Russia is also having supply problems, if not a relaxing of any political will.

They're having to buy stuff from the North Koreans, that's how bad their shortages are.

The sanctions are preventing them from being able to replace all the good gear they keep losing, so they're going backwards in terms of military capability.

Advanced technology is being replaced with Cold War relics.

And for the moment Ukraine's losses are being replaced with state of the art Western equipment.

 

Russia will be hoping that the far right lunatics take over the USA and cut off the supplies to Ukraine.
We'll then see how much political will the EU has.

Not sure the EU would want a belligerent Russia on its actual geographic doorstep, so I'm sure they'd keep supplies up. Whether or not they'd be able to match what the USA was supplying is another matter.
So far EU nations have been donating their ageing surplus previous generation stuff, with new stuff being on order from (mostly) the USA. 

 

At least Poland will stop being such a dick now that moderates are in charge (at least it appears they are).

That will maybe calm the boots of Hungary and Bulgaria.

 

Global politics is out of Ukraine's hands. All they can do is continue to degrade the Russian war machine and they're doing a right good job of that.

[henrysmithsgloves]

 

[AlimOzturk]

There isn’t a single chance USA let’s Russia win this war with Ukraine after the amount of cash they have pumped into it. 

 

They would be seen as week if they did. 

Edited October 17, 2023 by AlimOzturk

[Cade]

Ukraine has reportedly hit two major Russian air bases with ATACMS missiles.

Multiple attack helicopters reported destroyed as well as many servicemen killed.

This is the first major strike using ATACMS and means nowhere on Ukrainian soil will be safe for the Russians.

And that includes the entire Crimean peninsula.

 

[Pap]

1 hour ago, Cade said:

Ukraine has reportedly hit two major Russian air bases with ATACMS missiles.

Multiple attack helicopters reported destroyed as well as many servicemen killed.

This is the first major strike using ATACMS and means nowhere on Ukrainian soil will be safe for the Russians.

And that includes the entire Crimean peninsula.

 

 

I'm sure it was just the Russian blogger speculating that it was ATACMS. I'd love it to be true though.

[Cade]

The location of the bases makes ATACMS a prime suspect, as does the reported damage.

Storm Shadow and other missiles are all in range of those bases also but don't have the area coverage that ATACMS does, especially as we know that the USA has only provided the cluster munition warhead for it and not the single warhead version.
Makes it perfect for attacking things like airbases with lots of comparatively lightly armoured targets spread over an area.

 

Ukraine are confirming the attack but not the method.

[Footballfirst]

The US is unlikely to allow ATACMS to be used to hit Russian territory.

[Sawdust Caesar]

Copied from another forum, no idea if legit or not.

 

Operation "DRAGONFLY". Successful operation of the SSO of Ukraine to attack the airfields in Berdyansk and Luhansk

Special operations forces received information about the enemy's use of the airfields in the temporarily occupied Berdyansk and Luhansk, as well as the presence of a significant amount of aviation and special equipment and ammunition.

The specified information has been verified and confirmed. The coordinates and the necessary data have been transferred to the units of the Defense Forces. As a result of the fire strike on the night of October 16-17, the occupiers suffered significant losses.

According to the latest data, the following were destroyed in Berdyansk and Luhansk:

nine helicopters of various modifications
special equipment that was located at airfields
anti-aircraft launcher
ammunition warehouse
runways of airfields were damaged.

The ammunition depot in Berdyansk detonated until 4 in the morning. The detonation in Luhansk lasted until 11 am.

Losses in the enemy's manpower amount to dozens of dead and wounded. Bodies are still being pulled from the rubble.

[henrysmithsgloves]

29 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

The US is unlikely to allow ATACMS to be used to hit Russian territory.

The yanks have made it clear to avoid russian sovereign territory, it could escalate out of control😬

[Cade]

52 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

The US is unlikely to allow ATACMS to be used to hit Russian territory.

That was one of the conditions of them being given to Ukraine yes.

Which is why they've hit bases inside Ukrainian territory.

 

[OBE]

22 hours ago, Cade said:

Russia's latest lunacy has seen them attacking a giant spoil heap north of Avdiivka that has been fortified by Ukraine.

They're sending human waves to try to climb up the slope and they're just being cut down in huge numbers.

 

Not the smartest of chaps, the Russian military.

 

You sittin there watchin this fi a fair distance thru binoculars, like? How the ***k di you ken what you're readin is gen...sponge heid?

[henrysmithsgloves]

Putin's on the ropes now. Economy on its knees, losing troops and hardware. Is he just playing for extra time? Mentioned the American aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean and how his aircraft are armed and ready for anything 😯

 

[Cade]

Some reports reckon that Ukraine was only given 12 of the ATACMS cluster warheads.

We know it's fired 5 of them so far, 3 on one airbase and 2 on another, with very encouraging results.

 

Other previous reports had said that 60 rockets were in the deal.
Whether that was 5 batches of 12 or if this first 12 had to be seen to be effective before the other 48 were sent, we don't know.

[Mikey1874]

3 hours ago, Cade said:

Some reports reckon that Ukraine was only given 12 of the ATACMS cluster warheads.

We know it's fired 5 of them so far, 3 on one airbase and 2 on another, with very encouraging results.

 

Other previous reports had said that 60 rockets were in the deal.
Whether that was 5 batches of 12 or if this first 12 had to be seen to be effective before the other 48 were sent, we don't know.

 

 

[Cade]

Elements from three Ukrainian brigades have reportedly crossed the Dnieper and have liberated the village and railway station of Poima in the Zaporizhzhia region and pushing north to the larger town of Pishchanivka.

 

Special forces have been moving up and down the river for months, launching raids, gathering intel and tying up quite a few Russian units that could have been sent elsewhere.

[Cruyff]

4 hours ago, Cade said:

Some reports reckon that Ukraine was only given 12 of the ATACMS cluster warheads.

We know it's fired 5 of them so far, 3 on one airbase and 2 on another, with very encouraging results.

 

Other previous reports had said that 60 rockets were in the deal.
Whether that was 5 batches of 12 or if this first 12 had to be seen to be effective before the other 48 were sent, we don't know.

Great news if true. 

[Mikey1874]

There's a spreadsheet 

 

 

[Cade]

Pishchanivka is also now back under Ukrainian control.

That's a decent bridgehead over the river.

 

Russian reports think that another crossing further up the river at Kozachi is likely.

 

The main strategic goal for Ukraine will be Oleshky to the south, so Ukraine can repair the main Antonovskiy bridge and start moving heavy equipment over.

There's a railway bridge at Poima but that was also destroyed some time ago.

 

[Sawdust Caesar]

Well at least they got what it says on the tin, a few months back there was a video of a Russian soldier opening a tin can which was just filled with water, not sure what it was meant to hold but it wasn't water. 

[ArcticJambo]

Together with a slice of watermelon (sitting on his lap), it probably goes quite well. Worth a wee smile.

[henrysmithsgloves]

1 hour ago, Sawdust Caesar said:

Well at least they got what it says on the tin, a few months back there was a video of a Russian soldier opening a tin can which was just filled with water, not sure what it was meant to hold but it wasn't water. 

Not to be sniffed at😬

[indianajones]

1 hour ago, Sawdust Caesar said:

Well at least they got what it says on the tin, a few months back there was a video of a Russian soldier opening a tin can which was just filled with water, not sure what it was meant to hold but it wasn't water. 

 

Better than eating your enemies when you dont have to like some absolute weirdos over there have already done. 

[Cade]

Russian losses on the Avdiivka front are astronomical.
Yesterday alone they reportedly lost 120 AFVs, 55 Tanks, 33 Artillery pieces, 33 Trucks and around 1,400 men.

 

Since they launched the offensive on the 11th, that brings the totals to 426 AFVs, 218 tanks, 402 Artillery pieces, 245 Trucks, 7 helicopters, 4 ground attack aircraft and nearly 9,000 men.
And they've gained next to no ground.

 

The Russian generals are utterly insane.

[AlimOzturk]

3 hours ago, Cade said:

Russian losses on the Avdiivka front are astronomical.
Yesterday alone they reportedly lost 120 AFVs, 55 Tanks, 33 Artillery pieces, 33 Trucks and around 1,400 men.

 

Since they launched the offensive on the 11th, that brings the totals to 426 AFVs, 218 tanks, 402 Artillery pieces, 245 Trucks, 7 helicopters, 4 ground attack aircraft and nearly 9,000 men.
And they've gained next to no ground.

 

The Russian generals are utterly insane.

Just to compare and contract what have Ukrainian army lost? 
 

Would be interesting to know what percentage of their army they lose in comparison to Russian losses. 

[Cade]

1 hour ago, AlimOzturk said:

Just to compare and contract what have Ukrainian army lost? 
 

Would be interesting to know what percentage of their army they lose in comparison to Russian losses. 

 

Ukraine is losing about 5x less than Russia on that particular front.