Russia Invades Ukraine

[Cade]

Seems that the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Dnieper is strengthening.

 

They've been using counter-battery fire and heavy-duty drones to destroy all the Russian short range artillery and hidden tanks in the area.

As usual, they've also been identifying and hitting Russian troop concentrations as they assemble for attacks.

Russia is still attacking but they're not being all that effective due to the weakened state of their forces.

Ukraine is continuing to deliver men and supplies over the river in a constant rotation of fast boats and have also thrown up two light pontoon bridges.

They're getting quite firmly established on the left bank.

They won't be able to advance beyond the range of their own artillery on the east bank until they can install heavier bridges or bring in landing craft to deliver their own artillery and tanks, but so far so good.

Nobody expected them to open another front, and especially not across the river.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

On 17/11/2023 at 09:12, Jim_Duncan said:

Perhaps all the people in the west who changed their social media pictures to Ukraine flags (until whatever next came along) could be conscripted instead?

I think most are now in Gaza fighting the good fight.

[Mikey1874]

Back to reality on the ground

 

 

[Jeffros Furios]

2 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

Back to reality on the ground

 

 

[Cade]

That's the first winter snows falling in Ukraine now.

Both sides will be making last ditch efforts to take ground before digging in deep for the winter.

Russia has been stockpiling cruise and ballistic missiles (by not firing any for ages) so they can do their usual thing over the winter and target Ukraine's electricity grid.

Ukraine will just continue to hit barracks, HQs, ammo dumps, airfields, train lines, oil refineries, artillery, e-war systems and other such actual strategic targets.

 

Russia seems to have over-extended itself north of Avdiivka.

For some reason they've stopped using tanks and IFVs up there and are attacking with purely infantry. The armour seems to have been moved to the south of Avdiivka.

Their advance heading north is wedged between two fortified railway embankments and they're not getting very far, as they're being gunned down from both sides.

They did try to storm the small village of Stepove to the west but were very quickly eliminated.

Ukraine has launched a counter attack eastwards out of Stepove, pushing the Russians all the way back to the treeline on the Russian side of the railway line, which is threatening to outflank their push north. 

Avdiivka may well still turn out to be this year's Bakhmut.

Around Bakhmut itself, things are relatively static, with Russia launching attacks towards the liberated town of Klishchiivka but are being repulsed each time. They're still using all their best equipment on this front, so there's been a fair few T-90M tanks, Terminator IFVs and other such fancy toys being blown up here. Things which Russia cannot replace.

Up in Luhansk, things are likewise static.
Same goes for the Zaporizhzia region.

Kherson continues to be very interesting with the Ukrainian marines and other special forces widening their bridgehead over the river and linking up the different landing zones.
Russia, having lost hundreds of men and machines in counter attacks, is now resorting to air power and trying to just carpet bomb the entire left bank.

Ukraine is mitigating this by keeping the special forces on the move and never clumping together, so all the Russians are doing is wasting bombs blowing up empty ground.
Two small pontoon bridges have been thrown across the river and these are being used to bring over more supplies like food, ammo, man portable anti tank and anti air systems and building materials for winter entrenching.
A few IFVs have been brought over by landing craft.

Ukraine will need to push the Russian aircraft away with bigger and meaner air defences if they want to turn this beachhead into a proper invasion and build heavier bridges.

Watch this space.

[Jeffros Furios]

34 minutes ago, Jim_Duncan said:

 

Nowt better than dead Russian singers, eh. 

She's performing  in another country infront of a bunch of murdering and raping pigs ..

So aye **** her ! 

[Mikey1874]

48 minutes ago, Jim_Duncan said:

 

Nowt better than dead Russian singers, eh. 

 

She wasn't the target. Russian soldiers were. Unlucky. You can contribute to her memorial. I've quoted her theatre so you can contact them. Her final moments if you want to do your own grieving. 

 

 

 

[Jeffros Furios]

Just now, Jim_Duncan said:

Like Taylor Swift doing a gig in EH7. 

I'd abduct Taylor Swift before she steps foot in the piggery. 

[Cade]

NATO says that Ukraine will join the alliance after the war.

Which is a double-edged sword.

It means that Ukraine will be untouchable if they win.

But that very same fact means that Russia will just go even harder, so they win and destroy the entire Ukrainian state so there is nothing TO join NATO.
Putin now knows that he either wins this war or Ukraine becomes untouchable.

Which is kind of a trap for him. Will he increase mobilisation and risk instability and unrest at home? Will he throw even more Russian lives away in reckless actions? Will he achieve a pyrrhic victory but have basically no military left when it's all over?

Both sides have gone all-in.

If this wasn't an existential war for Ukraine before, it is now.

 

UK intelligence says that Ukrainian claims of 1,000 Russian dead per day throughout November is "plausible", which shows the scale of Russian losses on the ground.

 

On the ground itself, Avdiivka continues to be the main hot spot.

In the north, Ukraine has been utterly demolishing the Russian supply lines, assembly areas, command posts, barracks, artillery, ammo dumps and so on, resulting in only 25% of the Russian attackers on that flank even making it to the front lines.

And on those front lines the Russians are only attacking with human wave infantry attacks, which simply get mown down as they charge across open fields.

Ukraine has also launched some fairly substantial raids towards the main logistics hub town of Horlivka which is further hampering Russian efforts on this northern flank.
 

In the centre front of Avdiivka, Russians have finally launched some attacks from the 2014 line of contact along the highway.
Having been shelled for nearly 10 years, the nearby industrial estate is a tangle of wreckage.

Ukraine knew that trying to hold that was a waste of time so they withdrew to fortifications to the north, south and west of that.

Russian infantry then entered the industrial estate and got cut down from all three sides.

 

The southern flank of Avdiivka is the only vector where the Russians are still using heavy armour, but they're getting demolished by mines, artillery, drones and ATGMs without gaining any ground.

 

Just like Bakhmut last year, Russia seems obsessed with taking towns and doesn't care how many of its own people get killed in taking them.

Only this time they don't have Wagner to do the fighting and they don't have the prison battalions to do the dying. 

Just their own badly trained, poorly equipped, mostly pished and incompetently led army.

 

One other thing of note over the last few days was the sighting of some Abrams tanks up near Kupiansk in the north, where Russia has all its most modern gear in use.

Maybe we'll see Abrams taking out some T-90s which if nothing else would be a nice bit of propaganda for Ukraine.

Tank-on-tank action has been very rare in this war despite both sides fielding large numbers of them.

 

Some reports say that Russia has been stripping its border stations and bases of air defence systems and sending them to Ukraine.

This includes the Kaliningrad enclave in the Baltic.

So this indicates that they're unable to build new systems to replace destroyed ones.

 

Snowfall has hit eastern Ukraine already so things will be grinding to a halt in the near future.

A giant winter storm with 9 metre high waves smashed Crimea a couple of days ago, resulting in around 50% of the peninsula losing electricity.

[Sawdust Caesar]

At least the storm washed away some of the Russian defences.

 

 

Guerillas at work. Not much left for the firemen to put out.

 

Don't know if a uniform warehouse is all that great a target, unless it was full of winter gear destined for the front lines.

[Hagar the Horrible]

It said on the radio earlier, a rare thing on the radio that this is still active, but Russia has has lost the highest amount of troops in the last 6 weeks than in relative terms over the same time scale since the war started.  Its as though there is no end game in this apart from losing a vast number of people for no gain, and nobody will mourn nor remember them.  At what point will the russian people say enough is enough?

[Cade]

3 minutes ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

  At what point will the russian people say enough is enough?

 

When they run out of private mercenary companies, prisoners and ethnic minorities to call up.

The problems for Putin will start when he starts calling up white Russian laddies from the big cities.

[Mikey1874]

Since Wagner was mentioned.

 

 

[Mikey1874]

Also

(US Congress Speaker)

 

[cosanostra]

I'm in Thailand at the moment. South of Phuket. The place isn't busy but about 90% of people here are Russian. Very surly, unhappy looking people who don't really understand friendly. 🤣 

The chicks seem to be hugely breast augmentation surgery though. I don't mind that so much. They kind of have this outraged facial expression all the time though. Like someone has farted directly under their nose. 

The guys seem to love steroids. 

Definitely a weird contrast to the incredibly friendly, smiley Thai people.

[manaliveits105]

2 hours ago, cosanostra said:

I'm in Thailand at the moment. South of Phuket. The place isn't busy but about 90% of people here are Russian. Very surly, unhappy looking people who don't really understand friendly. 🤣 

The chicks seem to be hugely breast augmentation surgery though. I don't mind that so much. They kind of have this outraged facial expression all the time though. Like someone has farted directly under their nose. 

The guys seem to love steroids. 

Definitely a weird contrast to the incredibly friendly, smiley Thai people.

Spot on descriptions I was in Thailand earlier in year and they were struttin about with Russia T-shirts they are snapping up houses in Spain now but an equal amount of Ukranians live here too you wouldn't know there's a war on 

The Russians are unhappy people and loud bad drunks but tend to not drink in the bars thankfully 

[Cade]

It's also a cultural thing.

Citizens of all three of those nations are raised from birth to believe that they are the best nation in the world with a golden destiny and everybody else is beneath them.

Propaganda is a disease.

[Ulysses]

1 hour ago, Jim_Duncan said:

Broadly speaking, the three worst tourist nationalities are Russian, Chinese and American.

 

[Ulysses]

Just now, Jim_Duncan said:

The Vulcans get GTF, too. Mind melding all over the beaches in Aya Napa and doing their death grips to innocent bar staff in Cancun. 

 

Nearly there. 

[Craig_]

1 hour ago, Jim_Duncan said:

Broadly speaking, the three worst tourist nationalities are Russian, Chinese and American. It’s no coincidence that, to be rich/successful enough in countries with large populations like them, you have to be a bit of an arsehole. When you visit those countries, they tend to be quite sound, but the nationalistic education systems and exceptionalist mentalities promoted within them don’t produce curious, well-rounded tourists. 

 

Honourable mentions for the British and Australians too.

[Ulysses]

8 minutes ago, Jim_Duncan said:

You keep your garden Sherman updates to yourself, sir. 

 

Jealous, eh? 

[Jeff]

2 hours ago, manaliveits105 said:

Spot on descriptions I was in Thailand earlier in year and they were struttin about with Russia T-shirts they are snapping up houses in Spain now but an equal amount of Ukranians live here too you wouldn't know there's a war on 

The Russians are unhappy people and loud bad drunks but tend to not drink in the bars thankfully 

 

Are they still allowed in Turkey?

 

Would see them drinking in one bar at 10am and they'd be at the same seat at 11pm still going strong.

[Ulysses]

2 minutes ago, Craig_ said:

 

Honourable mentions for the British and Australians too.

 

I saw an article that said that the British listed the British as their least favourite tourists, while the Australians listed the Australians.  At least that shows a degree of awareness that other nationalities might lack.

 

I've only once been around large-ish numbers of Russians on holiday.  I'd prefer not to repeat the experience.

[cosanostra]

1 hour ago, Ulysses said:

 

I saw an article that said that the British listed the British as their least favourite tourists, while the Australians listed the Australians.  At least that shows a degree of awareness that other nationalities might lack.

 

I've only once been around large-ish numbers of Russians on holiday.  I'd prefer not to repeat the experience.

 

That makes sense. Most of the times I've met other Scottish tourists in weird places they tend to be the most cringeworthy, embarrassing type. 

The Russians are an extremely weird bunch. I can occasionally see glimpses of humanity and kindness in the ones that have young kids the same age as my rabble but most of them just look angry and like they're going to be beating someone up in their near future.

The way they treat the locals is pretty poor as well. 

[Ulysses]

13 minutes ago, cosanostra said:

 

That makes sense. Most of the times I've met other Scottish tourists in weird places they tend to be the most cringeworthy, embarrassing type. 

The Russians are an extremely weird bunch. I can occasionally see glimpses of humanity and kindness in the ones that have young kids the same age as my rabble but most of them just look angry and like they're going to be beating someone up in their near future.

The way they treat the locals is pretty poor as well. 

 

I have a bit of a tendency to avoid the Irish abroad, mainly because they make too many assumptions about me.

 

You meet nice people and fuds in all nationalities.  But I get a sense that there's a higher percentage of aggressive headbangers among Russians - and a lot of other former Soviet bloc nationalities as well.

[Sawdust Caesar]

Looks like a lot of Finnish kids will be getting a bike this Christmas.

 

 

[Cade]

32 minutes ago, Sawdust Caesar said:

Looks like a lot of Finnish kids will be getting a bike this Christmas.

 

 

 

There's been plenty of young Russian men leaving the nation to avoid being conscripted.

Mainly middle class boys from the bigger cities.

[Greedy Jambo]

Looks like the media have lost interest in this wee battle. 

[Cade]

Another Russian Major General has been killed.

Reports are still hazy but it appears to have been a mine that did for him.
Whether he was in a vehicle which was hit or if he was on foot at the time is not understood but he's certainly dead.

 

In the centre of the Avdiivka front, Russians are now unable to use heavy armour due to the deteriorating winter weather conditions, so they're just launching more human wave attacks at the industrial park which has been shelled since 2014 and is nothing but a killing zone of rubble surrounded by Ukrainian artillery on three sides.

Some reports suggest the Russians are losing hundreds of men per day in this tiny area alone.

 

In the southern part of the Avdiivka front, Ukraine has set up remote control machine gun nests around the main highway junctions which have kept the Russians at bay so far.

Russians are hitting the area hard with artillery and air dropped bombs but unless they score a direct hit then the guns keep working.

No soft human defenders to kill with overpressure.

Ukraine still playing smarter.

 

Both sides are gearing up for Russia's usual winter war crime strategy of firing cruise and ballistic missiles at civilian power infrastructure in an effort to freeze as many people to death as they can.

Russia has been slowing down the use of these weapons to save them for winter and Ukraine is beefing up the air defence around major power plants and big cities.

 

The massive storm that hit Crimea seems to have damaged or destroyed the submarine nets at Sevastopol so maybe Ukraine can sneak more naval drones in.

[Mikey1874]

Position of the Russian public. 

 

 

[redjambo]

10 hours ago, Jim_Duncan said:

Broadly speaking, the three worst tourist nationalities are Russian, Chinese and American. It’s no coincidence that, to be rich/successful enough in countries with large populations like them, you have to be a bit of an arsehole. When you visit those countries, they tend to be quite sound, but the nationalistic education systems and exceptionalist mentalities promoted within them don’t produce curious, well-rounded tourists. 

 

In my experience, it's Russian, Israeli and South African. Strange how folk have different experiences of life.

[Mikey1874]

The right bears out tonight

 

 

[mrmarkus1981_1]

Watching this - https://20daysinmariupol.com/

 

Really grim stuff

[henrysmithsgloves]

44 minutes ago, mrmarkus1981_1 said:

Watching this - https://20daysinmariupol.com/

 

Really grim stuff

😪

[Cade]

Ukrainian special forces have blown up a railway line inside a very long tunnel in Siberia which connects to China and is being used as a major supply line of military goods between the two nations.

The amount of damage done is not known but for Russia to have even acknowledged the attack must mean it's fairly severe.

If Ukraine's special forces are operating in Siberia then nowhere in the Russian Federation is safe.

 

In Kherson, Ukraine continues to increase the amount of men and materials being ferried over the Dnieper.

The winter weather is preventing the Russians from being able to launch armoured attacks on the beachheads and they're relying on artillery, air bombing and infantry assaults, none of which are achieving anything.
Russian soldiers are complaining that the air force is not bombing the correct targets, drone operators are being hampered by the bad weather and the infantry are being mown down as they approach.

Ukraine is using small teams of special forces to locate Russian air defence, artillery and electronic warfare systems then calling in pinpoint HIMARS strikes on these targets.

Footage of troops practising fording wide rivers riding on amphibious tanks has been seen, so Ukraine is preparing to bring in the big stuff should they be able to destroy enough artillery to allow it.

 

 

[Sawdust Caesar]

Spoiler

Utter scum. It's not worth surrendering if that is the outcome, be as well fighting to the death.

Edited December 3, 2023 by Sawdust Caesar
Beware Distressing viewing.

[henrysmithsgloves]

19 minutes ago, Sawdust Caesar said:

  Hide contents

Utter scum. It's not worth surrendering if that is the outcome, be as well fighting to the death.

Hardly unexpected,sad but true 😞

[Cade]

We finally have some more concrete information about the Russian Major General who was killed a few days ago.

He died near Krynky on the west bank of the Dnieper.

He was on the front lines in an effort to stem a mutiny as several Russian units are refusing to attack.

They are refusing to attack due to Ukrainian drone superiority, a lack of communication between themselves and their own drone operators, their air force and their artillery.

So they're attacking without any proper support and are being decimated.

And, crucially, because the Russian units who had been in that area last but who have since been rotated back off the front lines had heavily mined the area to the south of Krynky to prevent a Ukrainian advance, but did not accurately mark the minefields, and now the incoming Russian units are being told to advance through their own minefields and are taking heavy casualties.

It turns out that the Major General was killed by a Russian mine during his tour of the front.

Oops.

 

As well as blowing up a fuel train in the rail tunnel connecting Russia and China, Ukrainian special forces also blew up a fuel train on a bridge that connects Russia and North Korea.

Supplies will be severely limited until those structures can be declared safe and deliveries resume.

 

As well as hitting rail connections, Ukraine's special forces have hit several factories, warehouses, training camps and airfields deep within Russia.

Even though the locations hit are hundreds of miles apart and in totally different regions, the local authorities have claimed that every single one of the dozens of explosions was "an electrical malfunction".

So now we know that every time the Russians mention "an electrical malfunction" we can guess what actually happened. Either the Russian electrical grid is dangerous as feck, or Ukraine is blowing up military infrastructure.

It should be noted that it is only military installations that seem to suffer from these "electrical faults".

 

German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall has signed a deal to "lease" Ukrainian factories to produce IFVs, APCs and other such military equipment.

This will then allow Ukraine to build and maintain heavier Western equipment on their own soil, which will not just shorten the supply lines and time taken to repair such equipment but will also reduce the need for foreign government aid. 
Other Western arms manufacturers are in talks to sign more such deals, so Ukraine can build its own arms instead of having to rely on donations and having to ship damaged kit all the way back to Poland to be fixed.

[Captain Sausage]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67565508
 

A bit of balance to Cade’s positivity on the Ukrainian performance. 
 

Sad fact is that this is now a stalemate, neither side is budging much and winter is coming. Like anything, western demand for supporting Ukraine will diminish over time as priorities closer to home come into focus. 
 

I don’t have an answer, but sometimes it’s worth acknowledging that it isn’t a one sided battering like Cade’s posts often suggest. 

[Cade]

Territorially it's not moving very much. This much is true.

Attritionally, Russia's army is being dismantled. This is also true.

 

The Russians who killed those Ukrainian prisoners in the video posted recently on this thread are probably already dead.

The incident happened to the south of the railway line on the northern front of Avdiivka. 

The Ukrainians surrendered because they totally ran out of ammo.

Having mown down dozens of Russians, the Russian survivors killed the Ukrainians and occupied the trenches.

Ukraine counter-attacked, surrounded the occupied trenches and used drones to flush the Russians out of the trenches where they became easy targets.
Ukraine then re-occupied their trenches.

The Russian advance has been pushed back over the railway and back to the forest in the north.

So the war criminals have very probably been dealt with already.

 

In Russia, several protests by wives and mothers of serving solders took place in several cities, protesting about the length of service the contracts of their husbands/sons are.

Basic pay for soldiers and compensation to the families were both increased in an effort to appease the protestors, which will put even more strain on the Russian coffers.

Putin has also mobilised another 170,000 men.

[Dirty Deeds]

1 hour ago, Captain Sausage said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67565508
 

A bit of balance to Cade’s positivity on the Ukrainian performance. 
 

Sad fact is that this is now a stalemate, neither side is budging much and winter is coming. Like anything, western demand for supporting Ukraine will diminish over time as priorities closer to home come into focus. 
 

I don’t have an answer, but sometimes it’s worth acknowledging that it isn’t a one sided battering like Cade’s posts often suggest. 

Russia has had nothing but defeats and pyric victories since the early days of the war but they're still there, happily wrecking Ukraine.

 

Sadly I don't think they'll be out of Ukraine until Russian society breaks down and they throw out Putin and his heirs. That's a good decade away.

 

The gripes of soldier wives won't make it to mainstream news in Russia. They'll be silenced and the noisiest killed or locked up if they're lucky.

[Cruyff]

As predicted, US funding is coming to an end. Klitschko attacking Zelensky for the failed counter offensive and the stalemate on the front with Russia now crawling forward. 

 

"Time to negotiate" seems to be the message from the White House. 

 

It's not right but it's the reality. 

[Cade]

So we spent all that money for......a Russian victory?

 

 

 

As I have said countless times, if they are allowed to win, the Russians will simply re-arm, reorganise then go again, either in Ukraine or in central Asia and re-conquer the Stans.
Then we have USSR Mk2 to deal with.

 

 

Edited December 4, 2023 by Cade

[Malinga the Swinga]

On 29/11/2023 at 18:11, Greedy Jambo said:

Looks like the media have lost interest in this wee battle. 

Pretty much because the Palestinian media machine is far better at getting it's message across. Look at the marches here and elsewhere demanding Israel stops defending itself compared to the lack of pro Ukrainian marches.

It also has the advantage of strategically placed stooges, Humza being a fine example, who constantly tweet and post pro Palestinian messages out into the public ensuring they are at forefront of news. Ukraine, although it has far more of a direct impact on our lives, Russian Gas and so on, has fallen out of view, because the public, thick as they appear to be, cannot cope with more than 1 story to be sympathetic to.

[Malinga the Swinga]

1 hour ago, Cade said:

So we spent all that money for......a Russian victory?

 

 

 

As I have said countless times, if they are allowed to win, the Russians will simply re-arm, reorganise then go again, either in Ukraine or in central Asia and re-conquer the Stans.
Then we have USSR Mk2 to deal with.

 

 

Not so sure that Russia will be allowed to win but they certainly aren't going to lose. It's harsh but it's reality as public attention span has been breached and they are now only focussing on Palestine.

Let's face it, how many pro Ukrainian tweets have we seen recently from our FM? Compare that to his actions on Palestine where he is constantly advocating for his mates.

[Mikey1874]

This is what the stalemate means.

 

 

[Cade]

2008: Russia/Georgia war. Russia gets away with annexing two regions of Georgia.

2014: Russia/Ukraine war 1. Russia gets away with annexing Crimea and half of the two Donbas regions.
2022: Russia/Ukraine war 2. Russia annexes both Donbas regions as well as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

 

Hands up who thinks appeasing Putin works?

[Malinga the Swinga]

4 minutes ago, Cade said:

2008: Russia/Georgia war. Russia gets away with annexing two regions of Georgia.

2014: Russia/Ukraine war 1. Russia gets away with annexing Crimea and half of the two Donbas regions.
2022: Russia/Ukraine war 2. Russia annexes both Donbas regions as well as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

 

Hands up who thinks appeasing Putin works?

Don't believe anyone on here really thinks appeasing Putin works. Trouble is, our politicians don't give a **** what we think. It's Palestine that grabs them the views and likes and therefore it's where their attention is.

It's also cheaper to align themselves with Palestine than it is with Ukraine so it's a problem that Ukraine can't beat.

 

[Dirty Deeds]

9 minutes ago, Cade said:

2008: Russia/Georgia war. Russia gets away with annexing two regions of Georgia.

2014: Russia/Ukraine war 1. Russia gets away with annexing Crimea and half of the two Donbas regions.
2022: Russia/Ukraine war 2. Russia annexes both Donbas regions as well as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

 

Hands up who thinks appeasing Putin works?

No one disagrees with you but the noises out of Washington are deeply disturbing. 

 

The EU is hamstrung by it's ex-Soviet block members who seem to have short memories and the UK cannot support on its own.

 

It's a worrying time.

Edited December 4, 2023 by Dirty Deeds
Typo

[scott herbertson]

11 minutes ago, Dirty Deeds said:

No one disagrees with you but the noises out of Washington are deeply disturbing. 

 

The EU is hamstrung by it's ex-Soviet block members who seem to have short memories and the UK cannot support on its own.

 

It's a worrying time.

 

 

 

 

The Uk is far from supporting on its own - many EU countries have provided far more support per capita than the UK (particularly Germany and the Scandinavian/ Baltic countries)

 

This is a good factual site

 

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

 

The UK military support has been shrinking - probably because we have limited spare stuff, having cvut back for years now.