Russia Invades Ukraine

[jack D and coke]

4 minutes ago, JFK-1 said:

 

MOSCOW/KYIV, June 24 (Reuters) - Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Saturday his Wagner fighters had crossed the border into Russia from Ukraine and were prepared to go "all the way" against Moscow's military, hours after the Kremlin accused him of armed mutiny.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moscow-try-wagner-head-mutiny-ukraine-prepares-main-thrust-counteroffensive-2023-06-23/

Is he going to fall out a window soon then…😐

[JFK-1]

3 minutes ago, jack D and coke said:

Is he going to fall out a window soon then…😐

 

I don't see anyone with a gang as big as his flying out of any windows, I don't think anyone knows what's going to happen now. He crossed another red line by saying the rationale fore "the special military operation" was a pack of lies. While we all knew that right from the start he's now openly admitting it. Where do they go from there?

 

I think they have issued an arrest warrant, he wont be hard to find he's with a 25,000 strong army of the best fighters they have and he says he's heading for Moscow. Try serving that warrant. He says the bulk of the regular army is behind him, be interesting to know if that's true and I personally wouldn't rule it out. They have been taking horrific casualties from the start.

 

I would imagine Ukraine are watching very closely indeed, this could open up an opportunity to go at them in numbers when they're in disarray. Or I might say even more disarray than usual.

 

"There are 25,000 of us and we are going to figure out why chaos is happening in the country."

 

Prigozhin said his actions were "not a military coup", but added: "Most of the military support us fervently."

 

[jack D and coke]

1 minute ago, JFK-1 said:

 

I don't see anyone with a gang as big as his flying out of any windows, I don't think anyone knows what's going to happen now. He crossed another red line by saying the rationale fore "the special military operation" was a pack of lies. While we all knew that right from the start he's now openly admitting it. Where do they go from there?

 

I think they have issued an arrest warrant, he wont be hard to find he's with a 25,000 strong army of the best fighters they have and he says he's heading for Moscow. Try serving that warrant. He says the bulk of the regular army is behind him, be interesting to know if that's true and I personally wouldn't rule it out. They have been taking horrific casualties from the start.

 

I would imagine Ukraine are watching very closely indeed, this could open up an opportunity to go at them in numbers when they're in disarray. Or I might say even more disarray than usual.

 

"There are 25,000 of us and we are going to figure out why chaos is happening in the country."

 

Prigozhin said his actions were "not a military coup", but added: "Most of the military support us fervently."

 

I find it brutal to follow anything anymore. At the start you’re led to believe it’s all evil Russian aggression but then the counter claims appear and I end up just checking out. It’s anything nowadays it’s just claim then counter claim. 
I don’t think any of us can understand Russia or how insane you’d have to be to try what this guy is appearing to try do. 
Is he in the right do you think?

 

 

[JFK-1]

9 minutes ago, jack D and coke said:

I find it brutal to follow anything anymore. At the start you’re led to believe it’s all evil Russian aggression but then the counter claims appear and I end up just checking out. It’s anything nowadays it’s just claim then counter claim. 
I don’t think any of us can understand Russia or how insane you’d have to be to try what this guy is appearing to try do. 
Is he in the right do you think?

 

I think this Wagner guy may also have international arrest warrants hanging over him, as does Putin. Could this guy be starting to think this war is going to be lost, there's likely going to be regime change which could be hostile to me.

 

Would they maybe go down a path of handing over people the international community want to try, with him being a prime candidate as an offering while begging them to let us back into the world. He's maybe trying to get in first so to speak.

There have to be many people inside Russia, and I would say the majority in politics who recognise this is a total disaster, they're going to be an impoverished and isolated international pariah like NK. Best they can look forward to is Chinese puppet, not the superpower Putin wants to be.

 

This could become very interesting indeed. Immediate thought is will the Russian army take him on if he is indeed heading to Moscow.

[Dennis Reynolds]

Benefit of having a teething bairn is being able to watch this all unfold.

 

 

 

[jack D and coke]

1 minute ago, JFK-1 said:

 

I think this Wagner guy may also have international arrest warrants hanging over him, as does Putin. Could this guy be starting to think this war is going to be lost, there's likely going to be regime change which could be hostile to me.

 

Would they maybe go down a path of handing over people the international community want to try, with him being a prime candidate as an offering while begging them to let us back into the world. He's maybe trying to get in first so to speak.

There have to be many people inside Russia, and I would say the majority in politics who recognise this is a total disaster, they're going to be an impoverished and isolated international pariah like NK. Best they can look forward to is Chinese puppet, not the superpower Putin wants to be.

 

This could become very interesting indeed. Immediate thought is will the Russian army take him on if he is indeed heading to Moscow.

👍🏼

I read this thread and im fascinated by people’s knowledge on these things. 
Appreciate the replies cos I’ll be honest I’m punching smoke when it comes to this conflict. 

[JFK-1]

7 minutes ago, Dennis Reynolds said:

Benefit of having a teething bairn is being able to watch this all unfold.

 

 

 

 

Rostov is only 120 miles or so from Moscow, if he's serious they could be there in a matter of a few hours or so.

 

Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin says that his forces have crossed into Russia with intentions to "destroy" anyone standing in their path to Moscow.

 

https://www.newsweek.com/prigozhin-claims-wagner-forces-are-entering-rostov-ready-destroy-1808792

[JFK-1]

DW News currently covering it live.

 

 

[Watt-Zeefuik]

Rostov-on-Don is in Wagner hands. For the moment, the civil war appears to be on.

 

 

17 minutes ago, JFK-1 said:

 

Rostov is only 120 miles or so from Moscow, if he's serious they could be there in a matter of a few hours or so.

 

Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin says that his forces have crossed into Russia with intentions to "destroy" anyone standing in their path to Moscow.

 

https://www.newsweek.com/prigozhin-claims-wagner-forces-are-entering-rostov-ready-destroy-1808792

 

Wrong Rostov I think. Rostov-on-Don is 750 miles from Moscow.

[Watt-Zeefuik]

LOL

 

 

[JFK-1]

3 minutes ago, Led Tasso said:

Rostov-on-Don is in Wagner hands. For the moment, the civil war appears to be on.

 

 

 

Wrong Rostov I think. Rostov-on-Don is 750 miles from Moscow.

 

Yeah I took it from a wiki source, didn't know there was more than one.

 

Rostov is a town in Yaroslavl Oblast, Russia, one of the oldest in the country and a tourist center of the Golden Ring. It is located on the shores of Lake Nero, 202 kilometers northeast of Moscow.

[Watt-Zeefuik]

5 minutes ago, JFK-1 said:

 

Yeah I took it from a wiki source, didn't know there was more than one.

 

Rostov is a town in Yaroslavl Oblast, Russia, one of the oldest in the country and a tourist center of the Golden Ring. It is located on the shores of Lake Nero, 202 kilometers northeast of Moscow.

 

Right, easy mistake to make. Rostov-on-Don, of course, is right next to Aberdeen.

[JFK-1]

14 minutes ago, Led Tasso said:

 

Right, easy mistake to make. Rostov-on-Don, of course, is right next to Aberdeen.

 

Makes it less urgent than I initially thought, I was speculating a battle for Moscow beginning overnight. But this is still a major crisis with the analysts saying the longer this goes in while Putin doesn't say anything about it, the weaker it makes him look.

 

I do get the feeling something has to give here, he openly confessed the rationale for the war was a pack of lies. Though also suggested Putin didn't know it was lies.

 

How can they resolve this? Somebody has to go right? If Putin were to take his side, agree yep I was lied to, these army guys lied to me, then they have to go don't they. Into jail, out of a window, whatever, gone.

 

Alternatively if he wants to continue insisting the rationale is true then the Wagner guy has to go, but he's leading a band of 25,000 battle hardened soldiers, and if it's him who has to go he's not going to go quietly is he? The very best he could hope for would be taken alive and jailed for decades.  

 

He claims the bulk of the army are behind him, maybe that's plausible we will see. We will see if the Russian army engage his forces. If they don't and he continues heading for Moscow saying all the same stuff then something really has to give. This could be a turning point.

[Unknown user]

9 hours ago, Homme said:

🍿

 

So I haven't really read up on Wagner but aren't they pretty much guns for hire? So theoretically Ukraine / the west could pay them to side against Russia? Or are they engrained in the Russian psyche?

 

Looks like they are working for free now anyway

 

They exist as a means to keep military action at arm's length - when Wagner are fighting, it's just Russia with plausible deniability. They use state equipment, state training facilities and operate in the state's interests.

 

This is big, the guy's a strong ally of Putin, but he's turned, and is marching on Moscow with what are essentially Russian forces.

 

As said in the trump thread, when you attack the state, the state's reaction will be massive. And if it isn't, it's a huge sign of weakness

[JFK-1]

22 minutes ago, Smithee said:

This is big, the guy's a strong ally of Putin, but he's turned, and is marching on Moscow with what are essentially Russian forces.

 

I don't know if what he has already done in for example taking his forces from Ukraine into Russia heading for Moscow and saying the things he is saying already qualifies as crossing the Rubicon. But I think it might. How can this be undone?

 

Is he going to be talked down? Then say oh btw it was me who was lied to, I shot those liars? Highly unlikely, I see no way to spin it all back. The way I see it he has to attempt a coup now if he wants to live. Trying to defect to the west would be a better option even though they would throw him in jail.  

[OBE]

Who's paying Prigo's wages now?

[henrysmithsgloves]

16 minutes ago, OBE said:

Who's paying Prigo's wages now?

 

[Class of 75]

This hopefully looks like the beginning of the end for Putin. 

[JFK-1]

Just now, Class of 75 said:

This hopefully looks like the beginning of the end for Putin. 

 

Not so fast, Putin is reportedly going to speak soon. I wondered how long it would take him to say something, this could be interesting.

[JFK-1]

Ominous signs.

 

Metrics show that Google News has become unavailable for many users in Russia, according to NetBlocks, a group tracking internet disruption.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/23/russia-ukraine-war-live-russia-investigates-mutiny-as-wagner-chief-says-evil-military-leaders-must-be-stopped?page=with:block-649646fd8f08c081c5bb75ec#block-649646fd8f08c081c5bb75ec

[Dirty Deeds]

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1672506763600437249?s=20

 

Multiple reports of MoD forces just surrendering to Wagner with no resistance. Like these soldiers allegedly in Voronezh region.

Edited June 24, 2023 by Dirty Deeds

[AlphonseCapone]

Putin pretty much saying this will be put down and hard. This Wagner lad has one option really, properly go for it now. Be interesting to see now that Putin has been explicit, no confusion, how much of the regular army is or isn't with him. 

[Des Lynam]

3 hours ago, JFK-1 said:

 

Makes it less urgent than I initially thought, I was speculating a battle for Moscow beginning overnight. But this is still a major crisis with the analysts saying the longer this goes in while Putin doesn't say anything about it, the weaker it makes him look.

 

I do get the feeling something has to give here, he openly confessed the rationale for the war was a pack of lies. Though also suggested Putin didn't know it was lies.

 

How can they resolve this? Somebody has to go right? If Putin were to take his side, agree yep I was lied to, these army guys lied to me, then they have to go don't they. Into jail, out of a window, whatever, gone.

 

Alternatively if he wants to continue insisting the rationale is true then the Wagner guy has to go, but he's leading a band of 25,000 battle hardened soldiers, and if it's him who has to go he's not going to go quietly is he? The very best he could hope for would be taken alive and jailed for decades.  

 

He claims the bulk of the army are behind him, maybe that's plausible we will see. We will see if the Russian army engage his forces. If they don't and he continues heading for Moscow saying all the same stuff then something really has to give. This could be a turning point.

It would be extremely dangerous for Putin to turn on his defence minister Sergei Shoigu. His stranglehold over Russia could evaporate quickly as there is various factions always vying for power. This might be the end game for Vlad but personally I think we’re witnessing Prigozhin’s ego going out of control. Hopefully he has the backing of the army as he states otherwise this coup won’t get anywhere near Moscow. Hope I’m wrong though. 

[Homme]

This is ****ing hilarious 😂 

[Victorian]

Russian army troops and commanders waving through Wagner seems like a fairly poor outlook for Putin.  

 

 

[Class of 75]

45 minutes ago, JFK-1 said:

 

Not so fast, Putin is reportedly going to speak soon. I wondered how long it would take him to say something, this could be interesting.

Wishful thinking on my part. Either way this will have Putin rattled and could lessen his grip on the Kremlin. The perception by the Russian public is key here. 

[Jeffros Furios]

[Pap]

Seemingly 2 Russian helicopters have been shot down by Wagner.

 

Oh and -

 

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by Pap

[Class of 75]

Putin now referencing 1917. He is worried.

Edited June 24, 2023 by Class of 75

[Fire_At_The_Disco]

Took over the full military base in Rostov-on-don including the airfield  which is where Russia bases all attacks on Ukraine….weapons fighter jets the lot. 

[JFK-1]

BBC

 

In the last few minutes we have had an intelligence update from the UK's Ministry of Defence.

 

It says some Wagner units "are moving north through Vorenezh Oblast, almost certainly aiming to get to Moscow".

 

Vorenezh lies halfway between the capital Moscow and Rostov-on-Don, the Russian city that the Wagner mercenary group claims it now controls. The UK MoD says Wagner has "almost certainly" occupied key sites in Rostov-on-Don.

 

The update describes this rebellion as "the most significant challenge to the Russian state in recent times".

[JFK-1]

You know I think this is an actual coup attempt, Prigozhin has crossed the Rubicon, he now has to go all the way or perish.

[Howdy Doody Jambo]

🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿

[Bauld]

So if the Wagner Group has marched over the border from Ukraine and taken the military base in Rostov.

 

What is stopping the Ukraine army walking right in behind them when they move towards Moscow? 

 

Surely the Russian defence between Ukraine and Russia in that area is now gone.

[manaliveits105]

From the Twitter 🙂

[micole]

2 minutes ago, Bauld said:

So if the Wagner Group has marched over the border from Ukraine and taken the military base in Rostov.

 

What is stopping the Ukraine army walking right in behind them when they move towards Moscow? 

 

Surely the Russian defence between Ukraine and Russia in that area is now gone.

That's what I was thinking, probably not as simple as that. Will just have to wait and see how it pans out.

[il Duce McTarkin]

The questions now have to be asked, if Prigozhin installs himself as leader, where does that leave the war in Ukraine, and how will it affect stability in Europe and relations with the West.

 

Prigozhin is an evil psychopath.

[Victorian]

If it genuinely isn't an actual attempted coup the Putin may well be forced into conceding to Prigozhin's stated demands to topple the Russian regular forces top brass and for Prigozhin to effectively succeed them.  So the previous attempt to absorb Wagner into regular forces would effectively be turned into the opposite.

[OBE]

1 hour ago, henrysmithsgloves said:

 

 

Thanks for the insight, what a fankle...

[Bauld]

4 minutes ago, Dirk McTarkin said:

The questions now have to be asked, if Prigozhin installs himself as leader, where does that leave the war in Ukraine, and how will it affect stability in Europe and relations with the West.

 

Prigozhin is an evil psychopath.

 

I don't think he has any interest in Ukraine. He said himself that it was the idea of others to invade. For the sake of medals. Nothing more.

 

He's used Ukraine to build himself a name and gain followers. Now that he has both he probably no longer cares.

[Victorian]

If some traction continues to this,  I wonder how long it will be before Putin declares that Wagner is now a NATO proxy.  

[il Duce McTarkin]

7 minutes ago, Victorian said:

If some traction continues to this,  I wonder how long it will be before Putin declares that Wagner is now a NATO proxy.  

 

This is the worry.

[Pap]

 if true.

 

 

[Victorian]

2 minutes ago, Dirk McTarkin said:

 

This is the worry.

 

It might be a bit of a concern.  

 

The period of flux during the green shoots of some kind of 'coup' or other upset of the status quo is always uncertain and potentially dangerous.

[davemclaren]

3 minutes ago, Jim_Duncan said:

Maybe they are. Maybe Prigozhin has been got at and paid off/given assurances by NATO/The US in order to draw the war to a close. 
 

Or he’s just a total bam in a country of total bams. 

A world of total bams. 😄

[il Duce McTarkin]

4 minutes ago, Jim_Duncan said:

 

Or he’s just a total bam in a country of total bams. 

 

I'd put my money on this.

[Victorian]

2 minutes ago, Jim_Duncan said:

Maybe they are. Maybe Prigozhin has been got at and paid off/given assurances by NATO/The US in order to draw the war to a close. 
 

Or he’s just a total bam in a country of total bams. 

 

It's not impossible.  You never know who has been talking to who.  Or who is already in alliance,  or who would like to be allied with.  

 

Various divisions and layers within the regular Russian forces.  Figures in the Kremlin.  The security and intelligence services.  Wagner and other ad hoc forces.  External actors.

[henrysmithsgloves]

29 minutes ago, OBE said:

 

Thanks for the insight, what a fankle...

🤣 Could always have a bake sale if times get tough 

[Boof]

 

Wagner and his troops currently approaching Kilmarnock...

 

 

[Mikey1874]

Who knows what's happening and how it ends.

 

Rostov is HQ for Russian invasion of Ukraine. The next step for Wagner could be to blockade Crimea. Reports they are heading that way. 

 

But who knows.