Russia Invades Ukraine

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

I reckon this is over 

[Unknown user]

1 minute ago, Norm said:

Nice to see the JTs at the party

[Lovecraft]

"We are little-by-little running out of popcorn,” jokes Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine's defence minister.

Sak has, like the rest of the world, been watching events unfold in Russia at an “unprecedented speed”.

Speaking to BBC World Service Newshour, Saks says just before Russia began its 2022 attack on Ukraine the world thought Russia had “the second most powerful army in the world”.

“Yesterday everybody knew that Russia was the second most powerful army in Ukraine and today we're seeing how... the Russian army is becoming the second most powerful army in Russia."

 

 

 

[redjambo]

Despite Wagner's withdrawal of men and matériel from Ukraine, the Ukrainians would probably be wise to pause close combat engagement at the moment and carefully monitor the situation to see if there may be an opportunity for a less bloody conclusion to the war due to Russian withdrawal or even surrender. In saying that, explosions have just been reported in Berdyans'k so the long-range munitions or local partisans are still pressing on.

[Unknown user]

Just now, Lovecraft said:

"We are little-by-little running out of popcorn,” jokes Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine's defence minister.

Sak has, like the rest of the world, been watching events unfold in Russia at an “unprecedented speed”.

Speaking to BBC World Service Newshour, Saks says just before Russia began its 2022 attack on Ukraine the world thought Russia had “the second most powerful army in the world”.

“Yesterday everybody knew that Russia was the second most powerful army in Ukraine and today we're seeing how... the Russian army is becoming the second most powerful army in Russia."

 

 

 

 

Zing!

[Lovecraft]

2 minutes ago, Dusk_Till_Dawn said:

I reckon this is over 

Hopefully

 

 

[ToadKiller Dog]

Puttin certainly sounds rattled if not a bit scared . 

Marshall law declared in some areas with 30 days detention .

Dangers of getting carried away with the news in the west ,Putin is a surviver .

The head of wagner group is acting in self interest ,and yet to be seen what if any support he has among lower level officers ,normal Russian (non wagner ) troops and the  Russian public which he will need  .

 

Can't see the wagner group on its own achieve a revolution and change  .

 

That said the Ukraine invasion was always going to not end well for Putin long term .

 

 

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by ToadKiller Dog

[Lovecraft]

1 minute ago, redjambo said:

Despite Wagner's withdrawal of men and matériel from Ukraine, the Ukrainians would probably be wise to pause close combat engagement at the moment and carefully monitor the situation to see if there may be an opportunity for a less bloody conclusion to the war due to Russian withdrawal or even surrender. In saying that, explosions have just been reported in Berdyans'k so the long-range munitions or local partisans are still pressing on.

I'm sure they will be getting far better information that is out to the public/news, so they will have a better idea what is happening on the ground.

 

I can't imagine they will just recklessly push forward.

 

 

[periodictabledancer]

15 minutes ago, Locky said:

Just catching up with this on Twitter and the news in the last hour. Let me get this right:

 

A private militia owned by a once friend of Putin, has revolted against the Kremlin and are perhaps looking to overthrow old Vlad and his cronies, and free the Russian people from his dictatorship. Or at the very least, demand the war stops. 

 

As a result, Lukashenko has shat it and fled Belarus because if Putin falls, there's every chance he falls too and Belarus too becomes free. Ukraine is no doubt monitoring closely and will look to assist Belarus with that very revolt should it look likely. 

 

Either way, Putin is looking very vulnerable here and this could ultimately ease a lot of the tension in Ukraine.

 

Have I got that right?

No, he's p'd off with the army top brass (Shoigu & Gerasimov) - at least that's what he's been saying, and he wants them removed. He hasn't publicly said anything about toppling Putin, he hasn't mentioned Putin by name at all- so far. Prighozin has repeatedly condemned the top brass as being useless- which has resulted (he claims) in him being robbed of much needed ammo and recently being subjected to air strikes. 

 

 

[redjambo]

It has been reported that a large amount of cash has been found by authorities at Prigozhin’s St Petersburg office, totalling 4 billion roubles (£37 million). This perhaps illustrates that the "march" can't have been all that pre-planned.

[Locky]

19 minutes ago, Lovecraft said:

And latest reports are Wee Putin has legged it.

 

 

Brilliant. Really hope this is the beginning of the end for the conflict in Ukraine. Lukashenko and Putin getting launched would be the icing on the cake.

[periodictabledancer]

13 minutes ago, Lovecraft said:

"We are little-by-little running out of popcorn,” jokes Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine's defence minister.

Sak has, like the rest of the world, been watching events unfold in Russia at an “unprecedented speed”.

Speaking to BBC World Service Newshour, Saks says just before Russia began its 2022 attack on Ukraine the world thought Russia had “the second most powerful army in the world”.

“Yesterday everybody knew that Russia was the second most powerful army in Ukraine and today we're seeing how... the Russian army is becoming the second most powerful army in Russia."

 

 

 

[Horatio Caine]

BBC reporting that Putin's private jet has flown north-westwards but it's also true that his `country home` is north west of Moscow so it's probably better to assume he has gone there, rather than completely legged it.

[Cade]

2 minutes ago, Horatio Caine said:

BBC reporting that Putin's private jet has flown north-westwards but it's also true that his `country home` is north west of Moscow so it's probably better to assume he has gone there, rather than completely legged it.

 

Not sure that hiding on the Finnish border will help

 

[redjambo]

7 minutes ago, periodictabledancer said:

No, he's p'd off with the army top brass (Shoigu & Gerasimov) - at least that's what he's been saying, and he wants them removed. He hasn't publicly said anything about toppling Putin, he hasn't mentioned Putin by name at all- so far. Prighozin has repeatedly condemned the top brass as being useless- which has resulted (he claims) in him being robbed of much needed ammo and recently being subjected to air strikes.

 

He did comment that Putin was “deeply mistaken” to call his actions a betrayal, but that's pretty mild. He has had plenty opportunity to lay the boot into Putin and hasn't done so.

[stevie1874]

Things seem to be developing at pace and pretty mental claims on Twitter. That mental that I now wouldn’t be surprised to see Mr Romanov appear on the scene. 

[Locky]

13 minutes ago, periodictabledancer said:

No, he's p'd off with the army top brass (Shoigu & Gerasimov) - at least that's what he's been saying, and he wants them removed. He hasn't publicly said anything about toppling Putin, he hasn't mentioned Putin by name at all- so far. Prighozin has repeatedly condemned the top brass as being useless- which has resulted (he claims) in him being robbed of much needed ammo and recently being subjected to air strikes. 

 

 

That makes sense. Although, while not maybe coming for Putin directly, if Prighozin's mission continues to progress, it's only going to end up with him and Putin ultimately coming to blows.

[periodictabledancer]

3 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

He did comment that Putin was “deeply mistaken” to call his actions a betrayal, but that's pretty mild. He has had plenty opportunity to lay the boot into Putin and hasn't done so.

Pretty mild but possibly a serious mistake. He has to succeed (somehow) although what success would look like is anyone's guess. He's a marked man now after that remark. 

[hughesie27]

Are Wagner still pro Ukrai e war but anti Putins approach?

[Craig_]

46 minutes ago, Pap said:

Ukraine forces seemingly advancing in the Bakhmut area and in the Zaporozhzhia area without resistance.

 

This is absolutely massive if true

 

Just from a couple of unsourced Tweets.

 

I just hope they can retake that massive nuclear power station smoothly.

 

Has always worried me that the Russians might do something really stupid there. 

[indianajones]

He'll end up in South America like the very nazis he claims to hate. 

 

Poetic. 

[Lovecraft]

4 minutes ago, hughesie27 said:

Are Wagner still pro Ukrai e war but anti Putins approach?

He seems to be saying he didn't want the war with Ukraine and that the Russian Military leader Shoigu did.

 

 

[kingantti1874]

6 minutes ago, hughesie27 said:

Are Wagner still pro Ukrai e war but anti Putins approach?

I don’t think anyone knows for sure tbh. But he did call it for what is was publicly 

[Lovecraft]

Lipetsk governor confirms Wagner is moving through region

The governor of the Lipetsk region, Igor Artamonov, has confirmed that Wagner is moving "equipment" in the region.

As we mentioned previously, a social media video - which the BBC verified - showed a Wagner convoy of armed vehicles travelling in the region of Lipetsk, which is located between the city of Voronezh and Moscow.

Writing on social media, Artamonov said: "Law enforcement agencies and authorities... are taking all necessary measures to ensure the safety of the population. The situation is under control."

Artamonov also reminded residents that "they are strongly advised not to leave their homes and avoid travelling by any means".

 

 

 

 

[Lovecraft]

Looks like they are actually heading for Moscow.

 

 

[Cade]

I'm not going to speculate on any of this.

 

I'm just going to watch it all unfold.

 

 

[redjambo]

1 minute ago, periodictabledancer said:

Pretty mild but possibly a serious mistake. He has to succeed (somehow) although what success would look like is anyone's guess. He's a marked man now after that remark. 

 

He was a marked man anyway, and it had been coming for a while. He's approaching it publicly from an "I'm selflessly doing this for the mother country, not because I want Putin to be replaced" position, and probably also still holds out some hope that Putin may turn on Shoigu so doesn't want to do anything that damages that possibility. Very small chance of that happening though, imo, as Putin will have to admit that he has been massively duped for a long period of time.

[indianajones]

9 minutes ago, hughesie27 said:

Are Wagner still pro Ukrai e war but anti Putins approach?

 

They are still odious scumbags yep. 

[Sertse]

7 minutes ago, hughesie27 said:

Are Wagner still pro Ukrai e war but anti Putins approach?

Sort of, it's pretty complicated. He said they have done as ordered but been betrayed by Moscow.

My impression is he was pro war (means money for him) but was surprised at how corrupt it was, he routinely done videos showcasing Wagner dead and blaming Moscow for not giving them enough ammunition/shells etc. 

Part of me thinks that he believes they should be fighting the war his way. I don't think he'd want to continue it if he did take over power but he's pretty unhinged.

[redjambo]

10 minutes ago, hughesie27 said:

Are Wagner still pro Ukrai e war but anti Putins approach?

 

I know nothing (ripe for a ftfy there) but I think from his pronouncements that he would probably withdraw the Russian army to the post-invasion 2014 borders if he had his way.

[hughesie27]

Don't finish work till 9ish Hopefully the exciting stuff doesn't happen till I'm home in my garden enjoying a beer or 2 in the war. 20 degree heat forecast.

[Sertse]

 

 

[AlphonseCapone]

Would just add a bit of caution about claims folk will be seeing online. There's so much misinformation and accidental mistakes that rumours grow arms and legs very easily. 

 

Take Putin's plane. There's not actually any evidence he's left Moscow on that plane, even if it has left. Doesn't mean he wasn't but big difference between could have, likely has and definitely has. 

[Mac_fae_Gillie]

33 minutes ago, periodictabledancer said:

No, he's p'd off with the army top brass (Shoigu & Gerasimov) - at least that's what he's been saying, and he wants them removed. He hasn't publicly said anything about toppling Putin, he hasn't mentioned Putin by name at all- so far. Prighozin has repeatedly condemned the top brass as being useless- which has resulted (he claims) in him being robbed of much needed ammo and recently being subjected to air strikes. 

 

 

If he names Putin he is declaring a coup, I think that is his end game just can't think how he thinks he can carry on if Putin remains in power after this. 

[Cade]

These are the same boys that have been committing war crimes and crimes against humanity around the world for over a decade.

Good guys they are not.

They're just blowing up other bad guys right now instead of civilians.

[redjambo]

7 minutes ago, hughesie27 said:

Don't finish work till 9ish Hopefully the exciting stuff doesn't happen till I'm home in my garden enjoying a beer or 2 in the war. 20 degree heat forecast.

 

I'll try to get them to hold off for you.

[Mikey1874]

Putin will be okay. He has Steven Seagal on his side.

[redjambo]

6 minutes ago, Sertse said:

 

 

 

That was unexpectedly quick if true.

[Cruyff]

 

 

[Mikey1874]

1 minute ago, redjambo said:

 

That was unexpectedly quick if true.

 

How many Russian soldiers are defecting or just letting them through is the key factor.

[Sertse]

8 minutes ago, AlphonseCapone said:

Would just add a bit of caution about claims folk will be seeing online. There's so much misinformation and accidental mistakes that rumours grow arms and legs very easily. 

 

Take Putin's plane. There's not actually any evidence he's left Moscow on that plane, even if it has left. Doesn't mean he wasn't but big difference between could have, likely has and definitely has. 

It switched it's tracking off after leaving Moscow apparently

[Cruyff]

4 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

That was unexpectedly quick if true.

All Russian troops are in Ukraine or Syria. 

[Locky]

29 minutes ago, hughesie27 said:

Are Wagner still pro Ukrai e war but anti Putins approach?

 

24 minutes ago, Lovecraft said:

He seems to be saying he didn't want the war with Ukraine and that the Russian Military leader Shoigu did.

 

 

 

18 minutes ago, Sertse said:

Sort of, it's pretty complicated. He said they have done as ordered but been betrayed by Moscow.

My impression is he was pro war (means money for him) but was surprised at how corrupt it was, he routinely done videos showcasing Wagner dead and blaming Moscow for not giving them enough ammunition/shells etc. 

Part of me thinks that he believes they should be fighting the war his way. I don't think he'd want to continue it if he did take over power but he's pretty unhinged.

From what I've read and gathered, private militia companies like Wagner are actually illegal in Russia. Their very existence is aided by the previous close bond Prigozhin and Putin had. They've obviously towed the line and did whatever Russia needed and wanted them to do up until now.

[redjambo]

Wagner fighters reportedly offered amnesty if they surrender.

[hughesie27]

 

[Cruyff]

 

 

 

[Locky]

2 minutes ago, Sertse said:

It switched it's tracking off after leaving Moscow apparently

Lukashenko's plane turned tracking off during the entire time it was over Russian airspace.

[Cruyff]

1 minute ago, Locky said:

Lukashenko's plane turned tracking off during the entire time it was over Russian airspace.

Whole family been taken to Turkey.

 

Something big is going down, could be a bluff while they all disappear and blow up that Nuclear Power Plant. 

[ri Alban]

2 hours ago, Dusk_Till_Dawn said:

Wouldn’t want to be a Russian citizen in Ukraine when this is all over

 

Are you saying Putin was right?

[Lone Striker]

38 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

He did comment that Putin was “deeply mistaken” to call his actions a betrayal, but that's pretty mild. He has had plenty opportunity to lay the boot into Putin and hasn't done so.

Is it beyond the realms of possibility that Prigozhin ends  up striking a pact with his pal Putin ?  Something along the lines of "You fire all your the senior military top-brass like Shoigu,  put me in charge of  all Russian Defence and military decisions, and in return Wagner allows you to remain President."

 

At the end of the day, his anger is at the senior military generals who were too scared to tell Putin the truth about the limitations the Russian army had to sustain an invasion of Ukraine - and he runs  an army of convicts &  thugs who perform much better than the Russian army units do.    I find it hard to believe he's actually wanting to become the new Russian President himself.