JudyJudyJudy Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 34 minutes ago, redjambo said: If it's very low yield, its effects may be reasonably contained (I'm no scientist, I'm just thinking out aloud). Putin may have his army launch an artillery shell with a low yield nuclear warhead to make a statement that more high-yield projectiles will be used if Ukraine don't back off. If Putin does resort to going nuclear, which I certainly wouldn't put past him, there is going to be some really quick horse trading going on, the likes of which we haven't seen since 1962. There's even an outside possibility that in this event, the USA and China would join together in a game of brinkmanship with Russia to force it to stop walking down the nuclear path. Without sounding too pessimistic, those guys with the Doomsday Clock must be wondering how close they can move the hands to midnight without actually touching it. However, hope springs eternal. Once all that palaver kicked off in feb I made a conscious decision to blank it all out . It’s helped me not too anxious . There is nothing I can do about it therefore what’s the point in worrying about it . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jack D and coke Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 It’s Cummings I know but could it be true? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redjambo Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 19 minutes ago, Dirk McClaymore said: F minus. Go to the bottom of the class. Prepare to give me a G minus. For quite a while now, Putin has been gradually pushed into a corner, both as a result of his own actions and also of the resultant actions against him in response (the latter with which I wholeheartedly agree, btw). We know how a cornered animal can get however, and this one is a cornered animal with a red button. Lately, it is actually Putin who has been intentionally forcing himself into that corner. Mass mobilisation, fake referenda backed up by the statement that the annexed territories will be defended as if they were the motherland by any means possible, blowing up Nord Stream... For some reason, Putin *wants* to be in that corner. If he ever did, he now doesn't appear to give a shit about the lives of other humans, and he knows he's on the way out. He has lost the plot. China should have, and could have, been putting the pressure on Putin a long while ago, imo. He doesn't care what the West has to say, at all, but he may care what China says. India could have helped in this regard too. If it were the rest of the world protesting against Russia then he may have come to his senses, but it has turned into the West vs Russia and Putin loves that - it's the fight he's always wanted. The other powers have remained virtually silent. Despite great support for the Ukrainians in their fight, many countries have remained neutral, thus signalling to Russia that they still had some sort of support outwith Belarus, Eritrea and chums. It's not too late, of course, but the countries who have remained on the fence must step up now, and they have to give Putin an out that would be acceptable to Ukraine. Or we have to see Putin removed from power, but he's had many years of being at the top and running his country to ensure that potential putsches will be very difficult.. Anything else, imo, means conflagration. Sorry to say that. I feel like Lance Corporal Jones. Ok, an H minus will do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redjambo Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 (edited) 23 minutes ago, Mister T said: So basically a tactical nuke is like the bomb dropped on hiroshima? I think this whole tactical / strategic labelling is a load of pish. They're nightmare weapons that must never be used. I wholeheartedly agree. No, the Hiroshima and Nagasaki nukes were strategic. Tactical nukes are designed to be used in the battlefield. Edited September 29, 2022 by redjambo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redjambo Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 10 minutes ago, JudyJudyJudy said: Once all that palaver kicked off in feb I made a conscious decision to blank it all out . It’s helped me not too anxious . There is nothing I can do about it therefore what’s the point in worrying about it . Spot on, Judy, we can do nothing about it. I'm just irked that we as a human race have got ourselves to the brink again. We just keep on fecking it up. We just keep giving power to fruit loops, or letting them hang on to it. On the bright side, had a nice Cabernet-Sauvignon tonight. 🥂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redjambo Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 11 minutes ago, jack D and coke said: It’s Cummings I know but could it be true? Why would they brief that? Weird. The only reason I could see would be to put the wind up Putin (not going to happen) or provide confidence to his would-be usurpers (strange way to do it if so). I'm calling fake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JudyJudyJudy Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 minute ago, redjambo said: Spot on, Judy, we can do nothing about it. I'm just irked that we as a human race have got ourselves to the brink again. We just keep on fecking it up. We just keep giving power to fruit loops, or letting them hang on to it. On the bright side, had a nice Cabernet-Sauvignon tonight. 🥂 Yes it’s all very depressing really , hence my head in the sand approach . It keeps me relatively sane. I / we just have to hope that those who have influence use it wisely and sort all the shit out . Enjoy your wine ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JudyJudyJudy Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, redjambo said: Why would they brief that? Weird. The only reason I could see would be to put the wind up Putin (not going to happen) or provide confidence to his would-be usurpers (strange way to do it if so). I'm calling fake. Yes that’s a load of balls 🏀 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redjambo Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, JudyJudyJudy said: Yes it’s all very depressing really , hence my head in the sand approach . It keeps me relatively sane. I / we just have to hope that those who have influence use it wisely and sort all the shit out . Enjoy your wine ! Cheers Judy. Just to distract you from the doom and gloom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JudyJudyJudy Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 6 minutes ago, redjambo said: Cheers Judy. Just to distract you from the doom and gloom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Footballfirst Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 If Putin fired off a Nuclear weapon in some uninhabited part of Russia, as a show of strength (this is what we can do) then I don't think the West would act other than to up the rhetoric and up the readiness of their own nukes. If it escalated to a tactical sized weapon on Ukraine forces, then I think that the West would not respond immediately in kind. Instead, I think they would offer Russia the opportunity to de-cap Putin and his minions themselves, or that Nato would do it for them, by any means possible. Any escalation beyond that, then we are talking mass casualties across the US, Europe and the total annihilation of Russia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFK-1 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 2 hours ago, Mister T said: So basically a tactical nuke is like the bomb dropped on hiroshima? I think this whole tactical / strategic labelling is a load of pish. They're nightmare weapons that must never be used. The Hiroshima bomb had a yield around 20,000 tons of TNT while these tactical battlefield nukes can have a yield as low as around 100 tons. That's just half a percent of the yield at Hiroshima but that would still be one almighty bang. If it were detonated low enough for the fireball to touch the ground then we would be looking at fallout. If it were an airburst high enough that the fireball did not touch the ground then you're looking at a wider area of blast destruction but little to no fallout. If they were to do it, fingers crossed they don't, I suspect the airburst is what they would go with. That would wipe out any men and equipment over a fair area below the blast. But no fallout for the world to castigate them about. And Ukraine plus the West would be left thinking well what now? If we let this fly will he just keep doing that till we have nothing left to fight with? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trotter Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 3 hours ago, Mister T said: So basically a tactical nuke is like the bomb dropped on hiroshima? I think this whole tactical / strategic labelling is a load of pish. They're nightmare weapons that must never be used. In simple terms, a tactical nuke is generally of smaller size and is designed to be used in a dynamically changing battlefield as threats appear an example would be a bunch of tanks punch through a forward line and are at risk of over-running your position. A strategic nuke is one that is designed to go after a specific target for a specific reason (think of an ICBM headed for Washington DC). Agree on your last point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFK-1 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Putin’s mobilisation is ‘backfiring’ on him | Lord Richard Dannatt "What’s gone on in Ukraine, as far as most Russians are concerned, has been somebody else’s problem. But now mass mobilisation is everybody’s problem." Putin’s mobilisation is ‘backfiring’ on him and will see ‘more Russians getting killed’, Lord Richard Dannatt and Dr Domitilla Sagramoso tell #TimesRadio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFK-1 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 General Petraeus: Putin is desperate and in an irreversible situation Four Star General Petraeus told DW that Ukraine should become a NATO member after the war with Russia is over. "The success of some kind of Marshall Plan for Ukraine needs a security guarantee, otherwise it will not succeed." He doesn't see any changes after the midterms regarding support from the US: "The midterms will not change this. There will be enough support no matter who controls which house." He said, "Putin is in a very desperate situation which is irreversible for him if the US and other NATO members continue to provide the support." Asked about the possible use of nuclear weapons he said: "The use of tactical weapons would actually not reverse Russia's fortunes on the battlefield. It would be very destructive, very lethal in a specific area on that battlefield, but it would not reverse this reality that confronts Russia. And that is the new development." Asked about when the war might be over, he said that one of the factors he is watching most closely has to do with "Russian morale and does individual soldiers, do small units, do large units surrender or meld away, collapse? This is going to be a tougher winter for Russian soldiers than it will be for the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians are on their own soil with a very supportive citizenry around them. Doing whatever they can to support. The Russians are in areas where the citizens hate them. They're occupiers." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mister T Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 8 hours ago, redjambo said: I wholeheartedly agree. No, the Hiroshima and Nagasaki nukes were strategic. Tactical nukes are designed to be used in the battlefield. But if tactical ones can have the same yield as Hiroshima then what's the difference? They all have the same outcome whether it's on a battlefield or city. And what's a battlefield? We saw what putin did to mariupol. He doesn't care about anything the prick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trotter Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 9 minutes ago, Mister T said: But if tactical ones can have the same yield as Hiroshima then what's the difference? They all have the same outcome whether it's on a battlefield or city. And what's a battlefield? We saw what putin did to mariupol. He doesn't care about anything the prick. As I said above, whilst tactical nukes are generally smaller than strategic ones, but it's not the size that defines them, rather the way that they are used. The decision where and when to use tactical weapons is generally left to the commander in the field (once authorization is given from above) based on how things are happening at the time, whilst strategic weapons are used to take out specific targets as part of a wider strategy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pap Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 (edited) Getting ready for their big party in Red Square. Horrible horrible *******s. And there wont even be any tribute to their 50 odd thousand soldiers that have been killed. I wondering now if a bomb will go off at it? Nothing would surprise me at all. It genuinely be amazing if someone did a different kind of job on the big screens at the concert - Edited September 30, 2022 by Pap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cade Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cade Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 (edited) And in their latest war crime atrocity, the Russian orcs have shelled a convoy of civilian vehicles heading into the Zaporizhzhia oblast to help family members escape. At last count, 23 dead and 28 injured. Edited September 30, 2022 by Cade Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFK-1 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 A crater left by a Russian missile strike, that hit a convoy of civilian vehicles amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, is seen in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine September 30, 2022. REUTERS/Stringer A missile gouged a crater in the ground near two lines of vehicles. The impact had thrown chunks of dirt into the air and sprayed the vehicles with shrapnel. The windows of the vehicles - mostly cars and three vans, were blown out. Reuters saw around a dozen bodies, four of them in cars. "So far, 23 dead and 28 wounded. All civilians," Zaporizhzhia regional governor Oleksandr Starukh wrote on Telegram. FULL ARTICLE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cade Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scott herbertson Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Russians apparently withdrawing from their front line positions in Lyman and preparing to try to break out back to their main lines. Could get messy in the next few hours - either a big battle massacre or surrender, lets hope the latter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redjambo Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Cade said: And in their latest war crime atrocity, the Russian orcs have shelled a convoy of civilian vehicles heading into the Zaporizhzhia oblast to help family members escape. At last count, 23 dead and 28 injured. And this was almost certainly not accidental. It was no doubt targetted as a bloody message to those in the "annexed" territories not to flee and to those outside not to help them flee. This is what we are dealing with here, and why the fight must continue to drive Russia back to their borders and keep up the economic and political pressure for regime change in Russia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cade Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 14 minutes ago, redjambo said: And this was almost certainly not accidental. It was no doubt targetted as a bloody message to those in the "annexed" territories not to flee and to those outside not to help them flee. This is what we are dealing with here, and why the fight must continue to drive Russia back to their borders and keep up the economic and political pressure for regime change in Russia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikey1874 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 (edited) Some reporting from inside Russia. The key message is Putin will take any action needed to win. Interviews with people in Government. Edited September 30, 2022 by Mikey1874 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikey1874 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 (edited) 50 minutes ago, redjambo said: And this was almost certainly not accidental. It was no doubt targetted as a bloody message to those in the "annexed" territories not to flee and to those outside not to help them flee. This is what we are dealing with here, and why the fight must continue to drive Russia back to their borders and keep up the economic and political pressure for regime change in Russia. Reports say they were going TO annexed territories due to relatives there or where home was originally. This still happens daily too. Edited September 30, 2022 by Mikey1874 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redjambo Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 20 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said: Reports say they were going TO annexed territories due to relatives there or where home was originally. Yes, I appreciate that. They were heading into the territory to pick up relatives and deliver aid to others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFK-1 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 It's becoming harder to see how to resolve this and it certainly can't be resolved anytime soon. Putin just guaranteed it's going to be extended with this mobilisation which he had sorely wanted to avoid. The fact he has done it perfectly demonstrates the corner he's boxing himself into. He's not going to take that politically detrimental step then back down, he's going to commit minimum hundreds of thousands more cannon fodder to this. And the current reality is it's absolutely pointless, it's not going to change the military situation either in the short term or even the medium term. That's not my view, that's the view of the expert Western analysts and it's easy to see why. Aside from their equipment and supply deficiencies Russia has been exposed as having an army of largely semi educated ethnics from outlying Eastern territories. Poorly trained and any training they did get would be of no use in what they're facing against Ukraine. Russia for decades has been fighting wars against insurgencies and the like which is not comparable at all to fighting NATO. And in effect that's what's happened. They're not fighting the full giant that is NATO, that would be a walkover. But they are fighting a NATO proxy armed with weaponry and technology no insurgents ever got anywhere near. Plus this Ukrainian military is not just armed with hi tech weaponry but has massively increased it's size since the beginning of the war. Putin's army has been shrinking while Ukraine's has been growing. Ukraine's army is now populated with many thousands of soldiers experienced in this type of modern combat. And their growth isn't fueled by unwilling untrained conscripts. It's growing in the tens of thousands with freshly Western trained and equipped soldiers. People who have a will and reason to fight against poorly equipped reluctant almost press ganged conscripts. I foresee many tens of thousands more Russian dead, the current total will more than double. The United States just agreed to send in 18 more HIMARS. That lone will account for a mass slaughter of these unfortunate cannon fodder. And that's going to make it even harder to find a clean way out of this mess. Unless Putin were out of the equation. Somehow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scott herbertson Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, JFK-1 said: It's becoming harder to see how to resolve this and it certainly can't be resolved anytime soon. Putin just guaranteed it's going to be extended with this mobilisation which he had sorely wanted to avoid. The fact he has done it perfectly demonstrates the corner he's boxing himself into. He's not going to take that politically detrimental step then back down, he's going to commit minimum hundreds of thousands more cannon fodder to this. And the current reality is it's absolutely pointless, it's not going to change the military situation either in the short term or even the medium term. That's not my view, that's the view of the expert Western analysts and it's easy to see why. Aside from their equipment and supply deficiencies Russia has been exposed as having an army of largely semi educated ethnics from outlying Eastern territories. Poorly trained and any training they did get would be of no use in what they're facing against Ukraine. Russia for decades has been fighting wars against insurgencies and the like which is not comparable at all to fighting NATO. And in effect that's what's happened. They're not fighting the full giant that is NATO, that would be a walkover. But they are fighting a NATO proxy armed with weaponry and technology no insurgents ever got anywhere near. Plus this Ukrainian military is not just armed with hi tech weaponry but has massively increased it's size since the beginning of the war. Putin's army has been shrinking while Ukraine's has been growing. Ukraine's army is now populated with many thousands of soldiers experienced in this type of modern combat. And their growth isn't fueled by unwilling untrained conscripts. It's growing in the tens of thousands with freshly Western trained and equipped soldiers. People who have a will and reason to fight against poorly equipped reluctant almost press ganged conscripts. I foresee many tens of thousands more Russian dead, the current total will more than double. The United States just agreed to send in 18 more HIMARS. That lone will account for a mass slaughter of these unfortunate cannon fodder. And that's going to make it even harder to find a clean way out of this mess. Unless Putin were out of the equation. Somehow. As I mentioned above there is currently a battle for Lyman which could be quite significant. there are an estimated 2,000 - 3,000 Russian troops plus their equipment there. And Putin has apparently denied their request to withdraw and sent reservist reinforced battalions up to a nearby town to assist them. Should Lyman fall (and it seems highly likely) it will be a big loss to Putin, not just in terms of the trained troops which he will lose, but in terms of the perception of his failed strategy. I can't see the Russian troops wanting to do a Mariupol so I'd think it will be over today or tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pap Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 I think its time we upped the ante and started sending heavier weapons to Ukraine. We need to really stand up to this prick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Dan Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Putin waffling on at the moment. Failing to justify his invasion🫣 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFK-1 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, scott herbertson said: As I mentioned above there is currently a battle for Lyman which could be quite significant. there are an estimated 2,000 - 3,000 Russian troops plus their equipment there. And Putin has apparently denied their request to withdraw and sent reservist reinforced battalions up to a nearby town to assist them. Should Lyman fall (and it seems highly likely) it will be a big loss to Putin, not just in terms of the trained troops which he will lose, but in terms of the perception of his failed strategy. I can't see the Russian troops wanting to do a Mariupol so I'd think it will be over today or tomorrow I just see this as unwinnable for Russia now, but it wont stop till he agrees to stop it. And as it stands, he's not going to. How do we stop this? Regarding the strengthening of Ukraine since the beginning. This is a photograph of Ukrainians at the beginning when Kiev came under threat. They're making petrol bombs, this is what they deploy now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFK-1 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 For anybody who is interested I read an article in the New Yorker magazine published just yesterday so it's up to date with events. But a large part of it is about how wars end which is now a field of study following a dissertation by a guy called Hein Goemans. He also published a book based around his dissertation which was published in 2000. This is an excerpt from the article which in full is maybe around 3,000 words long. Wars end for different reasons. Some of them repetitive. Quote Dictators, because they have total control of their domestic audience, can also end wars when they need to. After the first Gulf War, Saddam Hussein was such a leader; he simply killed anyone who criticized him. The trouble, Goemans found, lay with the leaders who were neither democrats nor dictators: because they were repressive, they often met with bad ends, but because they were not repressive enough, they had to think about public opinion and whether it was turning on them. These leaders, Goemans found, would be tempted to “gamble for resurrection,” to continue prosecuting the war, often at greater and greater intensity, because anything short of victory could mean their own exile or death. He reminded me that on November 17, 1914—four months after the First World War began—Kaiser Wilhelm II met with his war cabinet and concluded that the war was unwinnable. “Still, they fought on for another four years,” Goemans said. “And the reason was that they knew that if they lost they would be overthrown, there would be a revolution.” And they were right. Leaders like these are very dangerous. According to Goemans, they were the reason that the First World War, and many others, had dragged on much longer than they should have. https://www.newyorker.com/culture/annals-of-inquiry/how-the-war-in-ukraine-might-end Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
132goals1958 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 He should have been done in when he choried the biscuits on visiting the Pans The day when Vladimir Putin visited East Lothian and visited a bakery in Prestonpans in 1991 This photo shows Vladimir Putin standing with East Lothian Council chairman George Wanless seated on the left and the Mayor of Leningrad (now St. Petersburg) Anatoly Sobchak on the right. Vladimir Putin then was head of the Committee for External Relations at the Mayor of Leningrad's office and was responsible for promoting International Relations and Foreign Investments and registering business ventures. When in East Lothian he visited Ford's Bakery at Prestonpans with the aim of clinching a deal with Ford's directors in establishing a similar bakery in St. Petersburg. It was alleged that when he left his pocket was stuffed with biscuits. 7777 20 comments 40 shares Like Comment Share Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lovecraft Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 BREAKINGZelensky requests fast-track Nato membership In Ukraine, President Zelensky has announced that he is requesting fast-track Nato membership after Vladimir Putin attempted to annex four Ukrainian regions. In a Telegram post, he said: Quote Message: We have already proven our compatibility with Alliance standards. We have already proven our compatibility with Alliance standards. Quote Message: We are taking a decisive step by signing Ukraine's application for accelerated accession to NATO." We are taking a decisive step by signing Ukraine's application for accelerated accession to NATO." A video of Zelensky's statement was also posted by the Ukrainian presidency on social media. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajones Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 So the special military operation was a land grab all along. Well I never. The west have been playing dodgy games since the soviet union dissolved in the 90s. Doesn't excuse the invasion and land grab though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JudyJudyJudy Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Very interesting tweets . Translation of Putins speech today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cade Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 "The West are neo-colonists!" "Yes but haven't you just illegally annexed 4 regions of a neighbouring nation?" "THE WEST ARE THE BAD GUYS HERE" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
il Duce McTarkin Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 23 minutes ago, JudyJudyJudy said: Very interesting tweets . Translation of Putins speech today Some charming comments from the attendees, there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
periodictabledancer Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 3 hours ago, JFK-1 said: It's becoming harder to see how to resolve this and it certainly can't be resolved anytime soon. Putin just guaranteed it's going to be extended with this mobilisation which he had sorely wanted to avoid. The fact he has done it perfectly demonstrates the corner he's boxing himself into. He's not going to take that politically detrimental step then back down, he's going to commit minimum hundreds of thousands more cannon fodder to this. And the current reality is it's absolutely pointless, it's not going to change the military situation either in the short term or even the medium term. That's not my view, that's the view of the expert Western analysts and it's easy to see why. Aside from their equipment and supply deficiencies Russia has been exposed as having an army of largely semi educated ethnics from outlying Eastern territories. Poorly trained and any training they did get would be of no use in what they're facing against Ukraine. Russia for decades has been fighting wars against insurgencies and the like which is not comparable at all to fighting NATO. And in effect that's what's happened. They're not fighting the full giant that is NATO, that would be a walkover. But they are fighting a NATO proxy armed with weaponry and technology no insurgents ever got anywhere near. Plus this Ukrainian military is not just armed with hi tech weaponry but has massively increased it's size since the beginning of the war. Putin's army has been shrinking while Ukraine's has been growing. Ukraine's army is now populated with many thousands of soldiers experienced in this type of modern combat. And their growth isn't fueled by unwilling untrained conscripts. It's growing in the tens of thousands with freshly Western trained and equipped soldiers. People who have a will and reason to fight against poorly equipped reluctant almost press ganged conscripts. I foresee many tens of thousands more Russian dead, the current total will more than double. The United States just agreed to send in 18 more HIMARS. That lone will account for a mass slaughter of these unfortunate cannon fodder. And that's going to make it even harder to find a clean way out of this mess. Unless Putin were out of the equation. Somehow. It ends when Ukraine wins or surrenders - and unless they're facing nuclear annihilation I don't see them surrendering, ever. Their people have already been brutalised , their infrastructure devastated and tens of thousand of their citizens taken hostage into Russia. This is a fight to the death for them. The tide is turning, the Ukraine army is well trained, battle hardened and well led/highly motivated. None of which you can say about the Russians. The fact Ukraine has HIMARS and can strike with deadly effect from long range is a game changer. The Russians have no clue what to do , other than throw cannon fodder into the battlefield and hope sheer weight of numbers wins it for them. They never anticipated that Ukraine could/would fight at all and certainly never with the amount of spohisticated weaponry the west/USA has provided. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cade Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Also today: Ukraine has formally requested to join NATO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
il Duce McTarkin Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Cade said: Also today: Ukraine has formally requested to join NATO. To be fair, they have been the de facto NATO front line since February, and they've performed admirably. So let's sum up. Russia partially isolated and massively weakened Militarily and economically. The west massively weakened economically, with political division, unrest or the potential for such across many countries. The war likely to grind to a winter stalemate before some compromise is reached on account of the above, where none of the belligerents really win, but lots of people lose. And folk wonder why India and China gave their tacit approval to Putin's plans. The ****ers are rubbing their hands. They're practically circling vultures. Edited September 30, 2022 by Dirk McClaymore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cade Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 It's all shits'n'giggles for shitehawk stalin, until 50 million screaming chinese come pouring into outer manchuria Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
il Duce McTarkin Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 26 minutes ago, Cade said: It's all shits'n'giggles for shitehawk stalin, until 50 million screaming chinese come pouring into outer manchuria Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victorian Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 As ever, most of the bullshit and insane ramblings is for domestic consumption. To reinforce a sense of patriotism and righteousness. To buy support and make opposition harder to flourish. But there may be a little inkling in there that might indicate that his use of nuclear munitions is not particularly imminent. I think he'll be content in the meantime to continue the long, atritional war. Obviously he doesn't care about losses, which will continue to be heavy. It certainly doesn't help people of Ukraine and particularly in the annexed regions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Watt-Zeefuik Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Clever move by Ukraine to go ahead and request NATO membership. If Putin retracts a bit, particularly on the "annexations," and agrees to negotiate, then NATO membership could be a bargaining chip. If Putin doesn't retract, absolutely nothing is lost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Watt-Zeefuik Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 2 hours ago, JudyJudyJudy said: Very interesting tweets . Translation of Putins speech today Cheers, thanks for posting this. Knowing ones enemy's rhetoric strikes me as a pretty important thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
il Duce McTarkin Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 10 minutes ago, Led Tasso said: Cheers, thanks for posting this. Knowing ones enemy's rhetoric strikes me as a pretty important thing. Thankfully, the west hasn't bought into the Russian rhetoric right from the off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redjambo Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Incoming aerial threat alerts went off all over Ukraine about an hour ago. Never seen so many on the map before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.