Russia Invades Ukraine

[il Duce McTarkin]

10 minutes ago, Cade said:

Russians are launching berserk, illogical and reckless counter attacks on recently liberated Ukrainian towns and villages.

 

The first thing Ukraine has been doing when taking a town is to dig in hard and establish a defendable line, use the 152mm mine-laying artillery shells to mine the approaches to the town and zero-in their artillery on likely counter attack routes.

 

Russia is throwing everything it has at the first defence line; heavy artillery, tanks, IFVs, helicopters, the lot.

But it's all being fed directly into the mincer and not being used carefully or intelligently.

They're running straight into the minefields and artillery kill zones and then trying to breach the Ukrainian defences head on, losing even more armour to Stugna missiles, helicopters are being shot down....then once all the vehicles are gone they're actually re-forming the surviving troopers for human wave attacks, resulting in piles of dead Russians.

 

None of it makes any sense.

How the hell are they managing to take more casualties than the Ukrainians when it's the Ukrainians on the attack?!

 

 

This reads a lot like what other sources tell us the Ukrainians are doing, tbf.

[Mikey1874]

Full mobilisation or defeat.

[Lovecraft]

2 hours ago, Cade said:

 

That pish is aimed at an audience of one.

 

One Vladimir Putin.

Yup

 

 

[Mikey1874]

All the talk has been of Western weapons. But meantime Ukraine has been doing this. Russia is able to defend against drones but just needs some to get through.

 

 

[henrysmithsgloves]

3 hours ago, periodictabledancer said:

Just imagime a union jack background and Farage talking his usual crap - people are lapping it up because they want to. This guy (like Farage does in/to the UK) takes them back to a time when Russia was a feared global super power. These folk yearn for that and if it means a return of a "proper" communist regime (or just a Putin-led dictatorship) then so be it. The folk who yearn for it, of course, aren't the ones who wil be doing the fighting. And so long as Putin can amange casualties to keep the big cities like Moscow & StPetersburg out of the picture (in the early days of the was , there was a significantly high number of deaths from minority groups - eg people who white Russians don't regard as being Russian) then he'll carry on regardless. 

Sounds like a rangers AGM

[Cade]

Piatykhaty village continues to be heavily contested.

 

After having zeroed-in the main supply road with their heavy artillery, the Ukrainians have been taking a heavy toll on the Russian reinforcements as they drive up the road.

 

The Russians then tried to drive through the fields to attack the village from the south, but hit mines.

Their own mines.

This forced them to slow down and weave their way through their own minefields, being hit with artillery and drones all the time.

Then when they reach the village it was in small groups which were hit with mortars and anti tank missiles.

The few survivors then pulled back.

 

Reports from the Russian side suggests that Chechen mercenaries are being used as "blocker" units, which it what the Russians are calling their execution squads.

Any retreating Russian soldier is gunned down by their own side.

This explains their stupid, reckless assaults on Piatykhaty.

Can't go back, certain death if you go forwards, so what do you do?

 

As usual, all this is achieving is heavy loses of Russian equipment and manpower and destroying the morale of their own army. Good job, guys.

[Pap]

Edit. Apparently an old video

Edited June 22, 2023 by Pap

[periodictabledancer]

1 hour ago, Cade said:

Piatykhaty village continues to be heavily contested.

 

After having zeroed-in the main supply road with their heavy artillery, the Ukrainians have been taking a heavy toll on the Russian reinforcements as they drive up the road.

 

The Russians then tried to drive through the fields to attack the village from the south, but hit mines.

Their own mines.

This forced them to slow down and weave their way through their own minefields, being hit with artillery and drones all the time.

Then when they reach the village it was in small groups which were hit with mortars and anti tank missiles.

The few survivors then pulled back.

 

Reports from the Russian side suggests that Chechen mercenaries are being used as "blocker" units, which it what the Russians are calling their execution squads.

Any retreating Russian soldier is gunned down by their own side.

This explains their stupid, reckless assaults on Piatykhaty.

Can't go back, certain death if you go forwards, so what do you do?

 

As usual, all this is achieving is heavy loses of Russian equipment and manpower and destroying the morale of their own army. Good job, guys.

Still using 1930s NKVD tactics, throw 'em in the meat grinder and if they try to flee, execute them. Rinse & repeat. 

 

[JFK-1]

Interesting point being made here around what this guy calls CQB, close quarter battle. He says the Russians are hopeless at this while Ukrainian western trained and equipped guys are slaughtering them. They are "frequently" conducting special forces raids on Russian trenches.

 

Imagine a dozen or so SAS types armed to the teeth getting into your trench.

 

'We don't want to talk to them, we want to kill them' say Ukrainians on the front 

 

"Russians are not better than Ukrainians. We have better training, better equipment, better support, better motivation, better morale...Russians have absolutely no reason to be here and they realise that."

 

 

[JFK-1]

Another good point he makes. He says that the Russians are totally predictable in the way they set up their positions, they literally do it by the book. They're using field manuals first produced in the 1940's which the Ukrainians obviously have copies of, and they follow the book religiously.

 

When Ukrainians see Russians set up an artillery position for example they know exactly the layout all around the weapon without examining it closely, machine gun nest here, this there, things like that. Because of this they could as an example take out a single machine gun nest blind. It's always going to be an exact distance and orientation around the main weapon.

 

You have to think it could take Russia decades to start from scratch almost and change the entire structure and thinking of their military. Also makes you wonder what China might be like.

 

Who have they fought recently? Western analysts are saying combined arms operations are very complex and difficult to execute.

 

NATO is a master of it because for decades NATO has been running mass drills involving not just different elements of the same army, but different elements of multiple armies from multiple nations, all with their own commanders.

 

Apparently Russia simply cannot organise a large scale combined arms operation in just it's own army, NATO most certainly can, China an unknown. 

[JFK-1]

I think this is an interesting 6 minute listen speaking of Zelensky and his wartime leadership. What interested me about it is this was recorded just one week to the day after the invasion prior to which apparently no one really took him too seriously.

 

During that first week he soared in everyone's estimation and was already being hailed an inspirational wartime leader. I would suggest during the intervening time if anything he has enhanced his legacy as great wartime leader.

 

https://www.npr.org/transcripts/1084310503

[Diadora Van Basten]

8 hours ago, JFK-1 said:

Another good point he makes. He says that the Russians are totally predictable in the way they set up their positions, they literally do it by the book. They're using field manuals first produced in the 1940's which the Ukrainians obviously have copies of, and they follow the book religiously.

 

When Ukrainians see Russians set up an artillery position for example they know exactly the layout all around the weapon without examining it closely, machine gun nest here, this there, things like that. Because of this they could as an example take out a single machine gun nest blind. It's always going to be an exact distance and orientation around the main weapon.

 

You have to think it could take Russia decades to start from scratch almost and change the entire structure and thinking of their military. Also makes you wonder what China might be like.

 

Who have they fought recently? Western analysts are saying combined arms operations are very complex and difficult to execute.

 

NATO is a master of it because for decades NATO has been running mass drills involving not just different elements of the same army, but different elements of multiple armies from multiple nations, all with their own commanders.

 

Apparently Russia simply cannot organise a large scale combined arms operation in just it's own army, NATO most certainly can, China an unknown. 

A friend who was in the army said they had a briefing from an American colonel. On Russian military tactics he described them as “Hey diddle diddle, tanks through the middle”

[Mikey1874]

Could be false. Could be true.

 

Could be a revolt.

 

 

[Mikey1874]

 

[Cruyff]

 

 

Wagner troops trying to take Russian trenches dressed as Ukrainian SOF. Seems mental. 

[RS86]

1 hour ago, Mikey1874 said:

Could be false. Could be true.

 

Could be a revolt.

 

 

I've been sent a video on instagram this evening of Prigozhin basically calling out generals based in Donbas. The long and short being they claimed to have far more soldiers than they did and were claiming circa £20k per person wages, but siphoning off large amounts of money for themselves while having much smaller units than they were suggesting to the Russian gvt.

 

I was then sent a video of what was meant to be the aftermath of missile strikes on a Wagner camp - will not share as this was very graphic unfortunately.

 

And then follow that an apparent declaration of war against Russia forces by Wagner, promising tens of thousands of men will now suffer as a consequence of this action.

 

All bizarre and not quite sure what to read of it. But if true this Wagner group are effectively now trapped between two forces both wanting them dead.

[Homme]

🍿

 

So I haven't really read up on Wagner but aren't they pretty much guns for hire? So theoretically Ukraine / the west could pay them to side against Russia? Or are they engrained in the Russian psyche?

 

Looks like they are working for free now anyway

[Lovecraft]

59 minutes ago, Cruyff said:

 

 

Wagner troops trying to take Russian trenches dressed as Ukrainian SOF. Seems mental. 

?

 

I thought this was Ukrainians?

 

 

[Jeffros Furios]

Wagner and Russian army killing each other ? 

[Mikey1874]

12 Ukraine battalions become 13

[henrysmithsgloves]

 

[henrysmithsgloves]

 

[Malinga the Swinga]

Well this has potential to upset applecart. Very hard to trust a word Wagner Group or Russia but hard to see how this plays out without one side being ended.

[indianajones]

Defo sounds like the start of a potential coupe. 

[Homme]

3 minutes ago, indianajones said:

Defo sounds like the start of a potential coupe. 

 

 

[Watt-Zeefuik]

Russia announces criminal proceedings against the Wagner guy whose name I don't want to type.

[Mikey1874]

Should all be clearer by the morning. 

[Daktari]

Reasonable theory put forward that this could be a way to blame the defence minister and give Putin a way out and keep face....

 

[Homme]

1 minute ago, Daktari said:

Reasonable theory put forward that this could be a way to blame the defence minister and give Putin a way out and keep face....

 

 

Yeah could see this Wagner guy heading up their MOD soon.

[Pap]

 

[Daktari]

Prigozhin tweeted earlier - 

 

"The Ministry of Defence is trying to deceive the public, deceive the president and tell a story that there was some crazy aggression by Ukraine, that - together with the whole Nato bloc - Ukraine was planning to attack us," he said.

 

Putin gets plausible deniability.

[Diadora Van Basten]

I get the feeling the Russian army hates the Wagner Group more than the Ukrainians and that’s why they left them to fight for Bakhmut a city with no strategic importance throughout the winter when the rest of the army was resting.

[Cade]

[Pap]

 

 

[Dawnrazor]

1 minute ago, Pap said:

 

 

Nukes.

[Mikey1874]

Just normal at this time in Moscow

 

 

[Watt-Zeefuik]

Josh Marshall has this  curated Twitter list of Russian and Ukrainian experts.

 

 

This one has been getting some boosts. It seems to think Wagner's about to be utterly flattened but has a longer read on the situation.

 

 

 

 

 

Others noting that Prigozhyn seems pretty calm so at the very least he thinks he knows how this is going to go down and is confident about it.

 

Rumors of columns rolling towards Rostov and Moscow with little resistance from the Russian military. 

 

 

[Homme]

Prigozhyn reminds me of Mike from Breaking Bad.

[Watt-Zeefuik]

FFS didn't realize that list link was going to embed 200 tweets or whatever. Nice one, Elon.

 

Trying to edit now. . . 

 

EDIT: Sorry, my internet is too slow on the train that I wasn't able to get to that post in the edit window. Sorry for the stupidly long load. Twitter is a candy-ass website anyway.

Edited June 23, 2023 by Led Tasso

[AlphonseCapone]

5 minutes ago, Led Tasso said:

FFS didn't realize that list link was going to embed 200 tweets or whatever. Nice one, Elon.

 

Trying to edit now. . . 

 

Just finished reading through it, was really good! 

 

Obviously no one knows for sure what any of this means but we can least be confident it's probably good for Ukraine. 

[Watt-Zeefuik]

3 minutes ago, AlphonseCapone said:

 

Just finished reading through it, was really good! 

 

Obviously no one knows for sure what any of this means but we can least be confident it's probably good for Ukraine. 

 

Ukraine isn't waiting around to find out, apparently. Taking ground in Bahkmut already and that's according to the Russian MOD. I'm sure that's not their only action either.

[AlphonseCapone]

3 minutes ago, Led Tasso said:

 

Ukraine isn't waiting around to find out, apparently. Taking ground in Bahkmut already and that's according to the Russian MOD. I'm sure that's not their only action either.

 

I'm going to be really optimistic and see this as the beginning of the end for the war in Ukraine, either because it's all an intentional Putin ploy to blame the military leadership and pull out or it's a legit civil war situation and Ukraine will drive them out fairly quickly / the Russians will retreat quickly back to the motherland to help with what is going down. 

Edited June 23, 2023 by AlphonseCapone

[Watt-Zeefuik]

2 minutes ago, AlphonseCapone said:

 

I'm going to be really optimistic and see this as the beginning of the end for the war in Ukraine, either because it's all an intentional Putin ploy to blame the military leadership and pull out or it's a legit civil war situation and Ukraine will drive them out fairly quickly / the Russians will retreat quickly back to the motherland to help with what is going down. 

 

I think it could be a desperate ploy by a fairly unpredictable actor who's been backed into a corner with his rivalry and is playing his pocket ace in a last-ditch gambit, and which will end up in him being dead with his closest lieutenants by early next week. Even in that best case scenario for Putin, there's 15-20k fighters pulled out of Ukraine at a critical time and a huge distraction and internal inquiry in Defense.

 

In the worst case for Putin, for me the other option is that Prigozhin isn't the mastermind here but is rather a noisy provacateur that sets into motion the militarization of Moscow which allows for an actual military coup. And in that case, Putin ends up hiding in a fortified bunker while he totally loses the Russian state to generals who have decided they're sick of his shit.

[AlphonseCapone]

4 minutes ago, Led Tasso said:

 

I think it could be a desperate ploy by a fairly unpredictable actor who's been backed into a corner with his rivalry and is playing his pocket ace in a last-ditch gambit, and which will end up in him being dead with his closest lieutenants by early next week. Even in that best case scenario for Putin, there's 15-20k fighters pulled out of Ukraine at a critical time and a huge distraction and internal inquiry in Defense.

 

In the worst case for Putin, for me the other option is that Prigozhin isn't the mastermind here but is rather a noisy provacateur that sets into motion the militarization of Moscow which allows for an actual military coup. And in that case, Putin ends up hiding in a fortified bunker while he totally loses the Russian state to generals who have decided they're sick of his shit.

 

👍 

 

Either way, I'm stocking up on popcorn. 

[JFK-1]

Interesting development isn't it, something has to give, there can be no going back from this. Prigozhin has basically just outed Putin, saying this about the whole shit show.

 

"The Ministry of Defence is trying to deceive the public, deceive the president and tell a story that there was some crazy aggression by Ukraine, that - together with the whole Nato bloc - Ukraine was planning to attack us," he said.

 

Right there is the truth we were all aware of from day one, how can they possibly spin this. I think he's trying to give Putin a small exit ramp by saying Putin was lied to about Ukraine, Nazis, and NATO.

[Dawnrazor]

Just now, JFK-1 said:

Interesting development isn't it, something has to give, there can be no going back from this. Prigozhin has basically just outed Putin, saying this about the whole shit show.

 

"The Ministry of Defence is trying to deceive the public, deceive the president and tell a story that there was some crazy aggression by Ukraine, that - together with the whole Nato bloc - Ukraine was planning to attack us," he said.

 

Right there is the truth we were all aware of from day one, how can they possibly spin this. I think he's trying to give Putin a small exit ramp by saying Putin was lied to about Ukraine, Nazis, and NATO.

But who in Russia will even see that?

[JFK-1]

3 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

But who in Russia will even see that?

 

Lots, it's not as insulated as Putin would like it to be.

[JFK-1]

New Intel: Russian plot to blow up chemical factory to stop Ukrainian advance | Frontline

 

“There is a very large chemical factory in northwest Crimea, there is information and intelligence that the Russians might be planning to blow that up similar to ISIS.” The plan would put ‘thousands of tons’ of sulphur dioxide into the air, impacting the Ukrainian advance, says Hamish de Bretton Gordon, a chemical weapons expert and former tank commander.

 

 

[Lovecraft]

1 hour ago, Led Tasso said:

FFS didn't realize that list link was going to embed 200 tweets or whatever. Nice one, Elon.

 

Trying to edit now. . . 

 

EDIT: Sorry, my internet is too slow on the train that I wasn't able to get to that post in the edit window. Sorry for the stupidly long load. Twitter is a candy-ass website anyway.

Did you just ctrl - v the entire internet?

 

 

[Watt-Zeefuik]

40 minutes ago, Lovecraft said:

Did you just ctrl - v the entire internet?

 

 

It was one measly link! It's just supposed to take you to a page of tweets from a list of accounts. No idea why it embedded like it did. I was on a train and out in the sticks when I did it, so I didn't see that it had done that until it was too late.