Russia Invades Ukraine

[indianajones]

12 hours ago, henrysmithsgloves said:

Scorched earth policy is the Russian M O 

 

How very nazi of them. 

[henrysmithsgloves]

1 hour ago, indianajones said:

 

How very nazi of them. 

Oh! They were just as guilty 😔

Edited June 7, 2023 by henrysmithsgloves

[Mikey1874]

The media is full of brave rescues of people and animals. But don't be in any doubt. Thousands will be killed by this. Its mainly the elderly and disabled that have stayed in a lot of these areas. And they won't be climbing onto their roofs. 

[indianajones]

Ukraine claiming Russians shooting at rescue boats. 

[redjambo]

2 hours ago, indianajones said:

Ukraine claiming Russians shooting at rescue boats. 

 

The Ukrainians have been forced to go into Russian-held territory to rescue folk whom the Russians are refusing to rescue, so that doesn't surprise me one iota.

[JFK-1]

Wondering how long it will continue, they filled that dam to the max before doing this, I have no idea how long it will take to empty it through that gap. The gap is estimated to be around 200 metres or so.

 

Weeks? I have no idea. Incidentally I saw one civil engineer say it must have taken a huge amount of explosives to do that, he suspected it would have taken them weeks to prepare it. 

[JFK-1]

Reported sightings of leopard tanks in the Donetsk region, among other things this video discusses is that significant in terms of the possible direction of an offensive? Or it just another feature of the subterfuge that will be prevalent?

 

Maybe keep them guessing where the main blow will fall while keeping them agitated by introducing a dangerous new weapon Putin has no match for in a location. They're also going to talk about cutting off the Crimean land bridge.

 

I was unaware of this prewar but it seems the land route into Crimea is relatively very narrow, I think I read maybe around 5 miles or so wide. Sort of like the straits of Gibraltar controlling access to the Mediterranean, I think the straits are around 8 miles wide giving Gibraltar it's obvious strategic importance.

 

If they take control of that land access into the Crimean peninsula then Russia is down to just the bridge to supply it, and I think relying on a bridge 12 miles long is risky indeed. I don't know if storm shadow could knock a span out of that, I do know it could hit it.

 

I'm sure they have other methods to knock a chunk out of that bridge, and that's all it takes, just one chunk. 

 

Why cutting Crimea land bridge could 'erode' Putin's army | Maj. Gen. Chip Chapman

 

"Unless Russia can mobilise least another four or 500,000 people and have a third party supplier of weapons, they will not be able to do any major offensive operations in the future"

 

Russia's army could 'wither on the vine and die' if Ukraine is successful in cutting the land bridge to Crimea, Major General Chip Chapman tells Frontline on #timesradio .

 

 

 

[JFK-1]

6 hours ago, Mikey1874 said:

The media is full of brave rescues of people and animals. But don't be in any doubt. Thousands will be killed by this. Its mainly the elderly and disabled that have stayed in a lot of these areas. And they won't be climbing onto their roofs. 

 

It's being reported that a lot of mines have been displaced and carried by the floodwaters, who knows where they will end up but it could be a problem in the making for the period after the water goes down.

 

I think Zelensky mentioned the threat of "eco terrorism" in a peace plan he proposed late last year. Since the plan involved get out of my country and stop bombing us Putin wasn't interested. But it looks like he was interested in the eco terrorism part.

 

They appear up for anything, and there have been rumours about that nuclear plant for a long time. Makes me wonder if that might be a red line for NATO, nuclear incident that could have continental consequences extending into NATO nations.

 

Is that the point it would be decided okay you're done here, we're ending this. 

[Captain Sausage]

NATO won’t get involved directly unless there is a clear attack on one of its members. 
 

I doubt use of tactical nuclear weapons within Ukraine would push NATO to act. 
 

Plenty of posters on here are (understandably) optimistic on Ukraines firepower and the upcoming offensive. I reckon there’ll be some decent gains, but Russian footholds in Donetsk and Luhansk will remain and it’ll force everyone to the table. 

[JFK-1]

Zelensky asking for international assistance to join the rescue operation in the flooded zones. But to be fair to the international community how practical is it for say the likes of the Red Cross to go into not just a disaster zone but a war zone?

 

There are now known to be mines floating in those waters and that's aside from potential war activity.

 

This is from the BBC's live news page

 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called on "international organisations, such as the International Committee of the Red Cross, to immediately join the rescue operation and help people in the occupied part of Kherson region".

 

In a video address late last night, he said: "Each person who dies there is a verdict on the existing international architecture and international organisations that have forgotten how to save lives.

 

"If there is no international organisation in the area of this disaster now, it means that it does not exist at all, that it is incapable of functioning. All the relevant appeals from Ukraine and our government are in place."

 

And in an interview to Germany's Bild magazine, Zelensky said he was "shocked" by the lack of help from the UN and the Red Cross.

[Mikey1874]

8 hours ago, JFK-1 said:

Wondering how long it will continue, they filled that dam to the max before doing this, I have no idea how long it will take to empty it through that gap. The gap is estimated to be around 200 metres or so.

 

Weeks? I have no idea. Incidentally I saw one civil engineer say it must have taken a huge amount of explosives to do that, he suspected it would have taken them weeks to prepare it. 

 

Russia mined the dam around New Year. That doesn't prove they blew it up but it was already ready and prepared well in advance. 

Edited June 8, 2023 by Mikey1874

[Mikey1874]

1 hour ago, JFK-1 said:

Zelensky asking for international assistance to join the rescue operation in the flooded zones. But to be fair to the international community how practical is it for say the likes of the Red Cross to go into not just a disaster zone but a war zone?

 

There are now known to be mines floating in those waters and that's aside from potential war activity.

 

This is from the BBC's live news page

 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called on "international organisations, such as the International Committee of the Red Cross, to immediately join the rescue operation and help people in the occupied part of Kherson region".

 

In a video address late last night, he said: "Each person who dies there is a verdict on the existing international architecture and international organisations that have forgotten how to save lives.

 

"If there is no international organisation in the area of this disaster now, it means that it does not exist at all, that it is incapable of functioning. All the relevant appeals from Ukraine and our government are in place."

 

And in an interview to Germany's Bild magazine, Zelensky said he was "shocked" by the lack of help from the UN and the Red Cross.

 

Fair comment.

 

But international rescue organizations went to a war zone in Syria / Turkey recently after the earthquake there. 

[Cade]

Big NATO conference in Vilnius next week.

 

Some rumours are being banded about that some eastern European members (led by Poland) are going to demand that NATO provides a security guarantee for Ukraine as it is now a prospective member.

These nations are also saying that if a security guarantee is not provided at next week's conference then they may assemble a "coalition of the willing" and either send vastly more equipment to Ukraine or even send their own troops in to guard Ukrainian cities in the west of the country.

 

 

[il Duce McTarkin]

25 minutes ago, Cade said:

Big NATO conference in Vilnius next week.

 

Some rumours are being banded about that some eastern European members (led by Poland) are going to demand that NATO provides a security guarantee for Ukraine as it is now a prospective member.

These nations are also saying that if a security guarantee is not provided at next week's conference then they may assemble a "coalition of the willing" and either send vastly more equipment to Ukraine or even send their own troops in to guard Ukrainian cities in the west of the country.

 

 

 

The Poles are straining at the leash.

[JFK-1]

3 hours ago, Captain Sausage said:

I doubt use of tactical nuclear weapons within Ukraine would push NATO to act.

 

I think it might, though have doubts Russia would use them. But right now I have doubts they can be trusted not to create a disaster at a nuclear power station, that could have continental ramifications a tactical nuclear weapon would not.

 

A Chernobyl with perhaps no one able to get in there to just examine it far less start trying to contain it. 

[JFK-1]

‘Floating landmines’ warning as Ukrainians flee dam disaster - BBC News

 

The breaching of a major dam in southern Ukraine will have a catastrophic effect on locating landmines, the Red Cross has warned. Thousands of people have already been evacuated from parts of the Kherson region as water continues to surge down the Dnipro river which divides Russian and Ukrainian-controlled territory.

 

Both Ukraine and Russia blame each other for sabotaging the Kakhovka dam. Three flood-related deaths have been reported in Russian-held Oleshky.

 

 

[Victorian]

A vast humanitarian,  environmental,  ecological and agricultural disaster zone,  incapable of being attended to by international agencies.  A literal dystopian wasteland,  no-go area.  Plus the further projection of Russia being prepared to carry out any act,  no matter how heinous and unthinkable.  It suits them down to the ground because their primary strategy is to divide and frighten.  Unfortunately they'll continue to carry out unthinkable acts in the same vein.

[highlandjambo3]

10 hours ago, JFK-1 said:

Wondering how long it will continue, they filled that dam to the max before doing this, I have no idea how long it will take to empty it through that gap. The gap is estimated to be around 200 metres or so.

 

Weeks? I have no idea. Incidentally I saw one civil engineer say it must have taken a huge amount of explosives to do that, he suspected it would have taken them weeks to prepare it. 

Not really…….you get a thing called RCK (rapid cratering kit) which is used in route denial, it makes big holes in the road.  It is detonated in 2 stages, the first stage is a fairly big shaped charge (centre of the picture) which blows a channel about 8in in diameter, 2m down…..you then empty the two bags of granulated explosives into the channel and blast that giving you a 2m deep crater about 6m in diameter.  From blasting the pilot hole to blasting the main charge would take about 1-2 minutes.  Remember the strength of a dam is based on its curvature shape, like an egg shell, crack that shape and its strength is gone.  The breach gap is about 200m but most of that gap (I suspect) would have been a natural collapse due to the water pressure on the initial breach…….I’d be fairly confident of blowing that dam with 2-3 RCK’s running front to back in 2 minutes.

 

 

 

 

[Footballfirst]

Looking at the image below (from a drone video), it appears the that flow of water downstream has just about stabilised (no longer a rush/waterfall). Hopefully that will mean the the flood waters will soon start to recede and the river will return to its previous channel. 

 

Edited June 8, 2023 by Footballfirst

[Cade]

Top working theory at the moment is that the Russians blew a series of mines in the electricity plant, knocking a section of that out and allowing the water to rush through.

Due to hydrodynamics and the sheer weight of millions of tons of water trying to burst out, the water itself then collapse the other sections of the dam.

Seemingly, the Russians only intended to cause a medium breach and not a catastrophic one, simply to prevent Ukraine from attacking the rest of the Kherson region over the river.

But due to their sheer incompetence and ineptitude, the entire thing went and now we have a huge ecological disaster on our hands.

One small comfort is that the main Russian defences on the left bank of the river are now 6 feet underwater as as soon as the waters recede that flank will be wide open.

 

 

[Footballfirst]

Looking at recent tweets from my collection of Ukraine news feeds, it looks like the Ukrainians are intent on pushing south towards Melitopol (Tokmak has been targeted over the last few days) and there is fighting going on in Robotyne and Lobkove (20k N and 30k NE from Tokmak).

 

There are also battles going on around Rivnopil which is approx 50k N of Mariupol

 

If the Ukranians are successful, it will cut off the land route to Crimea and isolate Russians in in control of the Zaporizhzhia power plant and elsewhere on the left bank of the Dnipro River.

[Cade]

First Leopard 2 confirmed to have been lost in the Zaporizhzhia region.

Saturation artillery strike over a wide area caught it.

[Dirty Deeds]

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1666724116815048704?s=20

[Cade]

Twitter and Telegram are fun right now.

 

Russia loses 2,000++ tanks. Nae bother, they're still winning the war.  

 

Ukraine loses a single Leopard 2. Ukraine may as well surrender now.

 

 

 

[Ked]

On 07/06/2023 at 07:44, Debut 4 said:

You really hate the West, don’t you?

Actually no I don't. 

It just nips my head this thread.

 

[Footballfirst]

4 hours ago, Cade said:

Twitter and Telegram are fun right now.

 

Russia loses 2,000++ tanks. Nae bother, they're still winning the war.  

 

Ukraine loses a single Leopard 2. Ukraine may as well surrender now.

Makes a change that the Russians have a confirmed Leopard kill, unlike the one they claimed a couple of days ago.

 

 

[JFK-1]

Think it might be unclear whether a leopard was destroyed, something was but we're not certain what. 

 

 

[indianajones]

Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think the Leopards were ever marketed as indestructible. Strange thing to jump on by Russia and it's sympathisers. 

[Libertarian]

It's worrying that so many ordinary people swallow what amounts to propaganda from government owned broadcasters such as the BBC and media outlets owned by billionaires. One indisputable fact is that Ukraine at independence in 1991 had a population of over 52 million, the current population is now down to around 18 million.

 

 

[cosanostra]

3 minutes ago, Libertarian said:

It's worrying that so many ordinary people swallow what amounts to propaganda from government owned broadcasters such as the BBC and media outlets owned by billionaires. One indisputable fact is that Ukraine at independence in 1991 had a population of over 52 million, the current population is now down to around 18 million.

 

 

 

Ukrainecast refers to Ukraine as a country of 40 million. Are you suggesting they're lying or just misinformed?

[Victorian]

[Cade]

1 hour ago, indianajones said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think the Leopards were ever marketed as indestructible. Strange thing to jump on by Russia and it's sympathisers. 

 

The Leopards sent to Ukraine are A4 variants, dating from the late 80's.

They're far better than most of the Russian tanks but by no means indestructible and no tank in the world survives a direct hit from heavy artillery.

 

Despite the loss of 4 APCs and the Leopard 2, the attack they were part of seems to have been a success, with Ukraine taking a series of trenches up on a hill overlooking several towns.

 

Edited June 9, 2023 by Cade

[il Duce McTarkin]

42 minutes ago, Libertarian said:

 One indisputable fact is that Ukraine at independence in 1991 had a population of over 52 million, the current population is now down to around 18 million.

 

 

 

Are the missing 34 million currently engaged in mining and heavy manufacturing in Siberia?

[Lovecraft]

1 hour ago, Libertarian said:

It's worrying that so many ordinary people swallow what amounts to propaganda from government owned broadcasters such as the BBC and media outlets owned by billionaires. One indisputable fact is that Ukraine at independence in 1991 had a population of over 52 million, the current population is now down to around 18 million.

 

 

Where did you get your indisputable fact?

 

Did you count them yourself?

 

 

[il Duce McTarkin]

It's just as well the Russian state media doesn't go in for propaganda and disinformation, imo.

Edited June 9, 2023 by Dirk McTarkin

[All roads lead to Gorgie]

9 minutes ago, Dirk McTarkin said:

It's just as well the Russian state media doesn't go in for propaganda and disinformation, imo.

That would be unheard-of in a libertarian country like Russia. Who could possibly believe that would happen!

[redjambo]

1 hour ago, Libertarian said:

It's worrying that so many ordinary people swallow what amounts to propaganda from government owned broadcasters such as the BBC and media outlets owned by billionaires. One indisputable fact is that Ukraine at independence in 1991 had a population of over 52 million, the current population is now down to around 18 million.

 

Whence the threat to peace, eh? You and your mob still playing by the same playbook after all this time.

[highlandjambo3]

2 hours ago, indianajones said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think the Leopards were ever marketed as indestructible. Strange thing to jump on by Russia and it's sympathisers. 

I did mention earlier (weeks ago) that all tanks are vulnerable to top attack weapons and tanks must always be supported by infantry (obviously).  I had read on here that it was an artillery strike…..that would be an extremely lucky shot if it were. Direct hit…….calling an artillery strike on armour is mainly to cause superficial damage to sights, range finders, antennas etc…..and to get the crew to batten down (close the hatches), that way they become less situational aware of their environment, As high tech as some of these tanks are, when your battened down it’s like looking through a smarty tube, the driver is only ever looking forward, commanders face is buried in a map, gunners eye is on the gun sight etc……it’s quite easy to sneak up on them.

Edited June 9, 2023 by highlandjambo3

[Cruyff]

14 hours ago, JFK-1 said:

Think it might be unclear whether a leopard was destroyed, something was but we're not certain what. 

 

 

Ukraine have taken a bit of a pasting over the last two days according to reports. 

 

 

 

[Mikey1874]

15 minutes ago, Cruyff said:

Ukraine have taken a bit of a pasting over the last two days according to reports. 

 

 

 

 

Looks pretty normal 

 

 

[Cade]

36 minutes ago, Cruyff said:

Ukraine have taken a bit of a pasting over the last two days according to reports. 

 

 

 

 

But still achieved their goals of taking the positions they were attacking.

"bit of a pasting" is a bit of an exaggeration.
 

This group was hit on the Ukrainian side of the lines, en route to launching their attack.

They were in single file on a narrow road because there were Ukrainian minefields on either side.

Russian drones operators had previously sighted this as a potential attack route and had artillery ready to go.

 

Tactical errors by the Ukrainian commanders here.

Should not be so close together even on your side of the line anywhere within enemy artillery range.

Drones should be spotted.

Anti-drone electronic warfare and air defence should be established before moving.

Hopefully they'll learn from the mistakes made by this column.

[Mikey1874]

British Army lost equipment in 1945 too in Germany. The Soviets too as they destroyed the German army. 

[doctor jambo]

6 hours ago, Libertarian said:

It's worrying that so many ordinary people swallow what amounts to propaganda from government owned broadcasters such as the BBC and media outlets owned by billionaires. One indisputable fact is that Ukraine at independence in 1991 had a population of over 52 million, the current population is now down to around 18 million.

 

 

It’s odd what an invading force raping, shelling, bombing and torturing your population does to it.

Especially when your neighbours are willing to keep you safe from the child snatchers until the right thinking people of nearly the entire world assist your army to try and liberate you

[Homme]

6 hours ago, Libertarian said:

It's worrying that so many ordinary people swallow what amounts to propaganda from government owned broadcasters such as the BBC and media outlets owned by billionaires. One indisputable fact is that Ukraine at independence in 1991 had a population of over 52 million, the current population is now down to around 18 million.

 

 

 

 

Brilliant!

[Cade]

More photography from the contact line has shown that two Leopards were knocked out.

One totally burned out, one with just track damage.

Both of them were Leopard 2A6, which only entered service in 2007. So much more modern that the A4 versions which they were misidentified as being yesterday.

 

Seems that the more senior officers of the Ukrainian army need to be sent for NATO training as well as the frontline troops, if costly errors like this one are to be avoided.

 

[Cruyff]

2 hours ago, Cade said:

 

But still achieved their goals of taking the positions they were attacking.

"bit of a pasting" is a bit of an exaggeration.
 

This group was hit on the Ukrainian side of the lines, en route to launching their attack.

They were in single file on a narrow road because there were Ukrainian minefields on either side.

Russian drones operators had previously sighted this as a potential attack route and had artillery ready to go.

 

Tactical errors by the Ukrainian commanders here.

Should not be so close together even on your side of the line anywhere within enemy artillery range.

Drones should be spotted.

Anti-drone electronic warfare and air defence should be established before moving.

Hopefully they'll learn from the mistakes made by this column.

It's been widely acknowledged by the Ukrainians and Western media that Ukraine's initial efforts have been met with fierce resistance and they've taken huge losses thus far. I don't know what's controversial about that. 

 

The Russians have spent months building multiple defensive lines. Ukraine are going to lose vast amounts of troops and equipment if this is the outcome of their initial efforts to break through the first defensive positions. 

 

 

2 hours ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Looks pretty normal 

 

 

 

Yeah, the maps look similar and the offensives coming in the same places but look at the defensive lines in a very small geographical area. As I said to Cade, they are going to lose a lot of troops and equipment, especially without air superiority.  

[Cruyff]

31 minutes ago, Cade said:

More photography from the contact line has shown that two Leopards were knocked out.

One totally burned out, one with just track damage.

Both of them were Leopard 2A6, which only entered service in 2007. So much more modern that the A4 versions which they were misidentified as being yesterday.

 

Seems that the more senior officers of the Ukrainian army need to be sent for NATO training as well as the frontline troops, if costly errors like this one are to be avoided.

 

I've seen at least 2 possibly 5 Leopards already and multiple Bradley's that are out of action. It's not been a great start. 

[Bauld]

It shouldn't really come as a surprise that the Ukraine are losing a certain amount of their arsenal.

 

Soon as you break cover and attack you're giving away your position and putting yourself in the line of fire. 

 

It is impossible for Ukraine to attack and attempt to break through the Russian lines without losing something. 

[Mikey1874]

 

[Mikey1874]

58 minutes ago, Cruyff said:

I've seen at least 2 possibly 5 Leopards already and multiple Bradley's that are out of action. It's not been a great start. 

 

Not how you start its how you finish.