Inflation

[BlueRiver]

2 minutes ago, periodictabledancer said:

In speaking with my mussus, not much has changed in her experience (and her role is to get the best deal she can for customers so she has a lot of dealing with a lot of lenders ).

It may be that stress testing doesn't (or maybe never did) anticipate high inflation , especially given that 2% was the "norm" for so many years. No one could've foreseen the current economic scenario - like I say,  a perfect storm of super inflation,  massive increase in energy prices/all foodstuffs  coupled with falling real incomes (and that's in spite of the wage increases we're seeing now - which are for from typical for the last 15 years). 

I don't see how a VAT reduction helps (unless we're talking about VAT on fuel* & utility bills - which the govt could've cut and still mainatined their tax take). There's no VAT on food anyway so that wouldn't help. 

*Sunak manged to rake in £2 billion in fuel duty when petrol prices were at their peak. Which he'd planned for tax cuts ahead of the next election. 

 

VAT has always been a touchy subject* because it hits the rich the most. The poor dont have much disposable income so you're not gonna get anything out of them and tories hate the idea of taxing luxury items (it's been mooted over the years and they always refuse). 

* It was orinibally 8% , then doubled to 15% and then "temporrily" incresed to 20% (which it's been at for over  decade now ?). Imagine, a Labour govt raising taxes to that level. 

 

See I thought even with the utilities as rates are 5% it would be a drop in the ocean for end users and as far as I know business can claim back VAT on energy costs? 

 

Cooling spending on the items that drive it that aren't essential by hiking rates seems much more sensible to me. 

 

I know! The party of low taxation sure loves high taxes on everything except capital gains. Wonder why that might be. 

Edited June 22, 2023 by BlueRiver

[JudyJudyJudy]

6 eggs £2.49 .....ffs 

[periodictabledancer]

7 minutes ago, BlueRiver said:

 

See I thought even with the utilities as rates are 5% it would be a drop in the ocean for end users and as far as I know business can claim back VAT on energy costs? 

 

Cooling spending on the items that drive it that aren't essential by hiking rates seems much more sensible to me. 

 

I know! The party of low taxation sure loves high taxes on everything except capital gains. Wonder why that might be. 

Yeah, what's so difficult about raising VAT on new car purchses. It's been done before, in effect, when a NEW CAR TAX was introduced (and that was a LONG time ago - by Thatcher in her first recession ? ) - it added around £800 to the purchase price. It's nothing new but the tories have no clue what to do so wring their hands and endlessly talk about interest rates.

See my comments about flights - the tories were asked to look at the profiteering on holiday prices  a few years back but refused to do anything.  Much like now. 

[Diadora Van Basten]

8 minutes ago, BlueRiver said:

 

See I thought even with the utilities as rates are 5% it would be a drop in the ocean for end users and as far as I know business can claim back VAT on energy costs? 

 

Cooling spending on the items that drive it that aren't essential by hiking rates seems much more sensible to me. 

 

I know! The party of low taxation sure loves high taxes on everything except capital gains. Wonder why that might be. 

Exactly Rishi Sunak paid an effective rate of Tax of 22% on his last three years income of £4.7 million.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-releases-tax-return-details-showing-income-while-chancellor-and-prime-minister-12840264

[Unknown user]

On the radio there they're just saying that the point of putting up interest rates is to take disposable income away and curb spending - it's intended to hurt.

 

See when you take a step back, it's some game we're playing when the rules say give the establishment even more money when times are tough.

[Fxxx the SPFL]

13 minutes ago, Shooter McGavin said:

Bank rate increased by 0.5%, new bank rate is 5%

i'm certain that pressure is being put on Bank of England from government desperate to reduce inflation before September when the rate is used as per the triple lock for April 2024 meaning at current rate another increase in the Pension of 8.7% 

[periodictabledancer]

Just now, Diadora Van Basten said:

Exactly Rishi Sunak paid an effective rate of Tax of 22% on his last three years income of £4.7 million.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-releases-tax-return-details-showing-income-while-chancellor-and-prime-minister-12840264

This is the problem in the UK - unearned income isn't taxed to the same extent because the UK economy is grounded largely in the proprty owning classes who don't see why they should pay 40% on THEIR incomes (and they don't). 

You watch, you'll see mention of death duties (paid by virtually no one)  getting a mention in the media over the next year or so. This is the tory bogeyman : it terrifies them. 

[henrysmithsgloves]

4 hours ago, BlueRiver said:

 

 

Drinks on you? 

In ten years 🤣

[periodictabledancer]

7 minutes ago, Smithee said:

On the radio there they're just saying that the point of putting up interest rates is to take disposable income away and curb spending - it's intended to hurt.

 

See when you take a step back, it's some game we're playing when the rules say give the establishment even more money when times are tough.

In the 1970s it worked because it took back the money won through crazy wage increases that caused an inflationary spiral. 

It's not working now because inflation isn't being driven by the money supply , it's driven by war and a failed (ie total absence) of an energy security policy that means the UK has to buy energy on a short term basis,  year after year (and that is NEVER going to change)  Putting up mortgage rates won't drive down the prices of these essentials, because it cannot possibly dampen demand in any meaningful way. 

We're heading for a recession and a house price crash - and we'll still have high inflation at the end of it. 

Someone up the thread (maybe you ?) mentioned only 30% of the population has a mortgage - how do you curb OVERALL spending/demand  by hammering ONLY the 30% who have a mortgage ? It's insanity. 

 

Edited June 22, 2023 by periodictabledancer

[The Mighty Thor]

just checking in......

 

is that right the new narrative is that you should have known that interest rates would go up as quickly, inflation would top 11% and food inflation would be near 20%?

 

Something about personal responsibility for macro economic factors and shit monetary policy decisions?

 

Aye?

 

[ri Alban]

5 hours ago, Dirk McTarkin said:

 

I take it you provide your roofing service for cost then?

 

 

You do a decent job, tbf.

 

 

In the same way that Walter Mitty owns half of your head?

I do. 👍

[Diadora Van Basten]

28 minutes ago, periodictabledancer said:

This is the problem in the UK - unearned income isn't taxed to the same extent because the UK economy is grounded largely in the proprty owning classes who don't see why they should pay 40% on THEIR incomes (and they don't). 

You watch, you'll see mention of death duties (paid by virtually no one)  getting a mention in the media over the next year or so. This is the tory bogeyman : it terrifies them. 

My opinion on Inheritance Tax is if the Duke of Westminster is able to pass on 9 billion without incurring Inheritance Tax then it should be scrapped.

 

https://amp.theguardian.com/money/2016/aug/11/inheritance-tax-why-the-new-duke-of-westminster-will-not-pay-billions

[ri Alban]

5 hours ago, Dirk McTarkin said:

 

I take it you provide your roofing service for cost then?

 

 

You do a decent job, tbf.

 

 

In the same way that Walter Mitty owns half of your head?

I like these thread, it unmarks the champagne socialists. Tories to the core, but don't have the balls to admit it.

[Diadora Van Basten]

33 minutes ago, periodictabledancer said:

In the 1970s it worked because it took back the money won through crazy wage increases that caused an inflationary spiral. 

It's not working now because inflation isn't being driven by the money supply , it's driven by war and a failed (ie total absence) of an energy security policy that means the UK has to buy energy on a short term basis,  year after year (and that is NEVER going to change)  Putting up mortgage rates won't drive down the prices of these essentials, because it cannot possibly dampen demand in any meaningful way. 

We're heading for a recession and a house price crash - and we'll still have high inflation at the end of it. 

Someone up the thread (maybe you ?) mentioned only 30% of the population has a mortgage - how do you curb OVERALL spending/demand  by hammering ONLY the 30% who have a mortgage ? It's insanity. 

 

Richard Murphy the economist made this point on BBC politics live that raising rates is from the 1970s playbook.

 

In the 1970s a lot more people rented than now and the policy is not working. He quoted Einstein theory of Insanity and also made the point that the Bank of England is not independent and that it has always been the case that the Government can overrule them and when pushed he said the Government should.

 

One of the panellists made the point what are we going to do next month and the month after if inflation doesn’t go down just keep on putting up rates. So the pain of battling inflation is paid for by the 30% of people mostly in their 30s and 40s who have a mortgage.

Edited June 22, 2023 by Diadora Van Basten

[ri Alban]

It's good to throw in some hook lines. It brings folks true colours to the surface. Socialism when it benefits them, don't be messing with ill gotten capitalism.

[Thunder and Lightning]

24 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

just checking in......

 

is that right the new narrative is that you should have known that interest rates would go up as quickly, inflation would top 11% and food inflation would be near 20%?

 

Something about personal responsibility for macro economic factors and shit monetary policy decisions?

 

Aye?

 

 

In short, yes, it's our fault.

[BlueRiver]

7 minutes ago, Diadora Van Basten said:

My opinion on Inheritance Tax is if the Duke of Westminster is able to pass on 9 billion without incurring Inheritance Tax then it should be scrapped.

 

https://amp.theguardian.com/money/2016/aug/11/inheritance-tax-why-the-new-duke-of-westminster-will-not-pay-billions

 

See I disagree. What needs scrapped is all the reliefs and mechanisms to avoid it. 

 

One of the greatest victories the Tories have won though is convincing people that are unlikely to ever really pay a penny in IHT that it's a massively unfair tax. 

 

A well worked IHT would do wonders for social mobility. Instead we have what we have. 

[ri Alban]

Starmer is perfect for the fake labour voters. A fecking Tory is Sir Kerr. A sir as the leader of the working class.

Edited June 22, 2023 by ri Alban

[Unknown user]

1 minute ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

 

In short, yes, it's our fault.

Yours maybe

[ri Alban]

Blaming folk for not predicting this shit storm. The fecking cheek .

[BlueRiver]

Just now, ri Alban said:

Starmer I perfect for the fake labour voters. A fecking Tory is Sir Kerr. A sir as the leader of the working class.

 

You might struggle with this by Starmer worked in his field and excelled and was then recognised for that. 

 

This denigration of his knighthood is just an extension of the kind of attitude that to do anything in life is to betray your roots. 

[Diadora Van Basten]

3 minutes ago, BlueRiver said:

 

See I disagree. What needs scrapped is all the reliefs and mechanisms to avoid it. 

 

One of the greatest victories the Tories have won though is convincing people that are unlikely to ever really pay a penny in IHT that it's a massively unfair tax. 

 

A well worked IHT would do wonders for social mobility. Instead we have what we have. 

I think the people who pay Inheritance Tax are generally people passing on their family home to dependents that they have spent a lifetime paying for. Whilst the very rich people it was intended to tax have found out ways of avoiding it. 

[The Real Maroonblood]

7 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

Starmer is perfect for the fake labour voters. A fecking Tory is Sir Kerr. A sir as the leader of the working class.

Don't forget that Tony Liar is now a sir.

[il Duce McTarkin]

7 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

I like these thread, it unmarks the champagne socialists. Tories to the core, but don't have the balls to admit it.

 

Tories are a bit left-wing for me, ri'. Not enough 'feeding to the lions', etc.

[Thunder and Lightning]

11 minutes ago, Smithee said:

Yours maybe

I get the blame for lots mate, one more thing, meh, ok.

[Gizmo]

31 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

just checking in......

 

is that right the new narrative is that you should have known that interest rates would go up as quickly, inflation would top 11% and food inflation would be near 20%?

 

Something about personal responsibility for macro economic factors and shit monetary policy decisions?

 

Aye?

 

Usual Tory rhetoric is to blame the plebs. Encourage spending and living a certain lifestyle when borrowing is cheap, then decry that same lifestyle when they lose control of the economy. 
 

Now that the inflationary waters are high enough to hurt the middle class, this group is now attracting increasing blame/patronisation/told you so - oh did you really think those interest rates would last…
 

 

[Pans Jambo]

The interest rate will do feck all for inflation. Its not personal spending or mega high wages that's causing it, so higher interest rates will do hee-haw.

 

What it will do is crash the economy, crash the new housing market, cause tens of thousands to lose their homes and put millions on the dole queue when the pubs/restaurants/shops etc. start closing.

 

Tories gonna tory!

They know they are a "dead man walking" and are looking to tank the economy so when Sir Kier and his red tories take over the ruins and ashes next year, we will have 5 years of the blue tories screaming that the red tories cant look after the economy and we should have trusted the blue tories with the economy all along!

 

Skip fire!

Edited June 22, 2023 by Pans Jambo

[Unknown user]

1 minute ago, Gizmo said:

Usual Tory rhetoric is to blame the plebs. Encourage spending and living a certain lifestyle when borrowing is cheap, then decry that same lifestyle when they lose control of the economy. 
 

Now that the inflationary waters are high enough to hurt the middle class, this group is now attracting increasing blame/patronisation/told you so - oh did you really think those interest rates would last…
 

 

 

And it's not like anyone else's problems have gone away, the Tories were patting themselves on the back for raising universal credit by 10%.

 

That amounts to about £1 a day.

That'll keep the wolf from the door!

[Malinga the Swinga]

Just now, Pans Jambo said:

The interest rate will do feck all for inflation. Its not personal spending or mega high wages that's causing it, so higher interest rates will do hee-haw.

 

What it will do is crash the economy, crash the new housing market, cause tens of thousands to lose their homes and put millions on the dole queue when the pubs/restaurants/shops etc. start closing.

 

Tories gonna tory!

They know they are a "dead man walking" and are looking to tank the economy so when Sir Kier and his red tories take over next year, we will have 5 years of the blue tories screaming that the red tories cant look after the economy and we should have trusted the blue tories with the economy all along!

 

Skip fire!

That's a the spirit. A positive outlook on things always makes you feel better.

[BlueRiver]

9 minutes ago, Diadora Van Basten said:

I think the people who pay Inheritance Tax are generally people passing on their family home to dependents that they have spent a lifetime paying for. Whilst the very rich people it was intended to tax have found out ways of avoiding it. 

 

Correct but even those numbers are low. There's primary residence exemptions and transferable nil rate bands that can mean you have assets well into a couple millions before you pay a penny. 

[Unknown user]

Just now, Malinga the Swinga said:

That's a the spirit. A positive outlook on things always makes you feel better.

What we need now is good old fashioned stiff upper delusion

[Pans Jambo]

Just now, Malinga the Swinga said:

That's a the spirit. A positive outlook on things always makes you feel better.

Give me one positive thing about people losing their homes, businesses and the housing market tanking?

 

 

[hughesie27]

26 minutes ago, Pans Jambo said:

Give me one positive thing about people losing their homes, businesses and the housing market tanking?

 

 

Will make it a bit easier for First Time Buyers to get on the market? 

[Unknown user]

1 minute ago, hughesie27 said:

Will make it a bit easier for First Time Buyers to get on the market? 

Rich first time buyers certainly

[Pans Jambo]

2 minutes ago, hughesie27 said:

Will make it a bit easier for First Time Buyers to get on the market? 

Not if they cant get an affordable mortgage mate.

 

This continually rising interest rates will only cause a large recession which will (ironically), cause even higher inflation.

[Jambof3tornado]

15 minutes ago, Smithee said:

Rich first time buyers certainly

And rich buy to let investors

 

[That thing you do]

7 minutes ago, Pans Jambo said:

Not if they cant get an affordable mortgage mate.

 

This continually rising interest rates will only cause a large recession which will (ironically), cause even higher inflation.

Yeah I watched a program last night about how interest rates wont solve inflation but will actually exaccerbate it.

 

The only true way raising interest rates solves inflation is if they are higher than the inflation rate. And even then, that wont solve the Ukraine war/Brexit induced element of it.

 

But that tanks the economy and noone is buying a house at a 10% + interest rate.

 

My cynical / consiracy theorist part of my brain says this is on purpose for several reasons of which fecking labour is one, but a CBDC digtal currency is the other. Because the USD and GBP are Donald Ducked long term. The debt isnt getting paid off and printing money is just about exhausted as an option.

 

What frightens me most about that is everything given the way the BOE has said it wants to do it. We will be like China if they do it the way they propose.

 

Tough times ahead 

[periodictabledancer]

Faisal Islam

 

@faisalislam

 

NEW Former Bank of Eng Dep Governor Charlie Bean to on Today: “It’s pretty clear that our inflation problem is a bit worse than elsewhere”… Points to post-pandemic labour market losing 500k workers, and then Brexit making access to workers “less elastic”

Edited June 22, 2023 by periodictabledancer

[periodictabledancer]

1 hour ago, The Mighty Thor said:

just checking in......

 

is that right the new narrative is that you should have known that interest rates would go up as quickly, inflation would top 11% and food inflation would be near 20%?

 

Something about personal responsibility for macro economic factors and shit monetary policy decisions?

 

Aye?

 

Only from the usual predictable sources. 

[Dazo]

1 hour ago, The Mighty Thor said:

just checking in......

 

is that right the new narrative is that you should have known that interest rates would go up as quickly, inflation would top 11% and food inflation would be near 20%?

 

Something about personal responsibility for macro economic factors and shit monetary policy decisions?

 

Aye?

 

Not as quickly no but I don’t think anyone said that, I know you like a good exaggeration to rally the lefties. You did know they were going to go up though, right ? 

[periodictabledancer]

1 hour ago, Diadora Van Basten said:

 

One of the panellists made the point what are we going to do next month and the month after if inflation doesn’t go down just keep on putting up rates. So the pain of battling inflation is paid for by the 30% of people mostly in their 30s and 40s who have a mortgage.

Which is what Peston was banging on about last night. 

If the govt wants to take money out of the economy quickly & fairly it must raise taxation (direct & indirect) . But of course, it won't because its better for bank shareholders to profit from this innefective misery than put the money into the public purse. 

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

3 hours ago, Jambof3tornado said:

I benefitted. Came off 3rd year of stepped mortgage onto rate guaranteed to be no more than base plus 0.5%. Sat on that until last year when we jumped onto a 10 year 2.19% as it was obvious the rates were scooting up. Had I had a crystal ball we'd have bought a more expensive house!!!!

Is precisely my point 

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

4 hours ago, kila said:

6% with excessive house prices is a significant chunk of people’s salaries. You can’t compare currently rates to 1970s, it’s entirely different. 
 

If we had cheaper housing then yes 6% wouldn’t be too big a deal for most. That’s the problem, house prices have spiralled out of control, and the banks are rolling in the profits. It’s a ****ed up game and fixed against the majority of us. 

I bought in 2006, not 1970. 6% was absolutely the norm. People have been stupid in assuming that it will sit at 0% indefinitely 

[That thing you do]

10 minutes ago, Dusk_Till_Dawn said:

I bought in 2006, not 1970. 6% was absolutely the norm. People have been stupid in assuming that it will sit at 0% indefinitely 

Yep. People got used to the low interest rates.

 

But also, the UK fascination that wealth = having a house is flawed, especially now. It isnt. The amount of people who mortgage themselves over 70% of their income to have a nice house yet have no other investments and little savings for a rainy day (or decade), is incredible. You bought a liability not an asset. Unless of course you rent out a room in which case its now an asset.

 

 

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

3 minutes ago, That thing you do said:

Yep. People got used to the low interest rates.

 

But also, the UK fascination that wealth = having a house is flawed, especially now. It isnt. The amount of people who mortgage themselves over 70% of their income to have a nice house yet have no other investments and little savings for a rainy day (or decade), is incredible. You bought a liability not an asset. Unless of course you rent out a room in which case its now an asset.

 

 

Correct and all mortgage support will do is encourage the housing market to carry on as it has before. The structure of the housing market is a fundamental problem which nobody is prepared to deal with because as you explain, everyone thinks buying a house on a mortgage is what everyone should be aspiring too.

 

The government needs to seriously regulate the buy to let market and tax the **** out of second homes. It needs to stop the ludicrous cycle of houses getting more and more expensive while people have less to spend. But they won’t do anything 

 

 

[fabienleclerq]

9 minutes ago, Dusk_Till_Dawn said:

Correct and all mortgage support will do is encourage the housing market to carry on as it has before. The structure of the housing market is a fundamental problem which nobody is prepared to deal with because as you explain, everyone thinks buying a house on a mortgage is what everyone should be aspiring too.

 

The government needs to seriously regulate the buy to let market and tax the **** out of second homes. It needs to stop the ludicrous cycle of houses getting more and more expensive while people have less to spend. But they won’t do anything 

 

 

 

I think the opposite tbh, it's not as profitable as you think and people are selling up because of it. Leaving less properties available for rent.

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

4 minutes ago, fabienleclerq said:

 

I think the opposite tbh, it's not as profitable as you think and people are selling up because of it. Leaving less properties available for rent.

Maybe it’s on the turn then. Buy to let has massively inflated house prices. It’s been one of the biggest problems, selling to people who are desperate to make money out of them. Should we bollocks be helping anyone who’s struggling to pay a second mortgage 

[il Duce McTarkin]

1 minute ago, fabienleclerq said:

 

it's not as profitable as you think

 

It's only worth it if you don't have a mortgage on your second property, unless you're big-time, and it pays off due to an old-fashioned economy of scale.

 

[Unknown user]

10 minutes ago, fabienleclerq said:

 

I think the opposite tbh, it's not as profitable as you think and people are selling up because of it. Leaving less properties available for rent.

The properties don't disappear though, they're generally still available for rent.

[periodictabledancer]

11 minutes ago, fabienleclerq said:

 

I think the opposite tbh, it's not as profitable as you think and people are selling up because of it. Leaving less properties available for rent.

Leaving more properties available to buy.