2021 Scottish Parliament Election (Thursday 6th May 2021)

[Ron Burgundy]

5 minutes ago, Dazo said:

Probably conjecture because the snp have never addressed it. I’ve no idea why this hasn’t been fully put in front of us so those that are swaying can make an informed decision. Independence is going to cost us a lot of money, let the country know how much extra tax it will cost us then people can judge whether it is worth it. 

That's where I am at. Show me the real cost and let me decide.

If me and my kids are going to benefit then I'm in. If you can't show me that then I can't afford the risk.

[Pasquale for King]

15 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

• The nationalists won't say how they will finance their share of the national debt.  It isn't likely to be pretty reading for their supporters.
• Scotland has an unsubstainable deficit.
• Scotland hasn't got a central bank.
• Scotland won't be in the EU.
• A Scottish currency would be worth less than sterling based on our economy vs rUK.
• Scotland would need a trade deal with the rest of the UK, let alone agree how to transport goods to the continent without charges at Berwick.

....

We don’t have to legally take a share of the UK debt. 
Central bank can be opened in a morning. 
Scottish currency tied to a failing pound will be worth the same. 
Why would England not trade with us? 
We can export goods from Scotland. 
The EU have said they will accepts us with open arms.

Borrowing or QE is what the U.K. and every other country does, everyone runs a deficit but we would don’t currently have one. 
https://www.gov.scot/publications/foi-19-02287/

[Cade]

It's impossible to predict global markets on a long or even medium range basis.

That's how we keep having crashes.

 

Folk saying they'll not vote for Independence unless they get a cast-iron guarantee of the next 30 years of the economy are living in fantasy land.

 

 

[Unknown user]

1 hour ago, JKBMod 3 said:

Please try and post on topic and leave the outing of members with multiple accounts, or otherwise, to the moderating team. 
 

 

Wait, which ones are you?

[DETTY29]

29 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

• The nationalists won't say how they will finance their share of the national debt.  It isn't likely to be pretty reading for their supporters.
• Scotland has an unsubstainable deficit.
• Scotland hasn't got a central bank.
• Scotland won't be in the EU.
• A Scottish currency would be worth less than sterling based on our economy vs rUK.
• Scotland would need a trade deal with the rest of the UK, let alone agree how to transport goods to the continent without charges at Berwick.

....

That reads like a list of things an abuser would say to his,her victim.

 

Edited May 10, 2021 by DETTY29

[Ron Burgundy]

1 minute ago, Cade said:

It's impossible to predict global markets on a long or even medium range basis.

That's how we keep having crashes.

 

Folk saying they'll not vote for Independence unless they get a cast-iron guarantee of the next 30 years of the economy are living in fantasy land.

 

 

I know we cant get cast iron guarantees over the next thirty year period but we can certainly be told the immediate and short term effects.

If anyone is living in fantasy land it's those that are willing to jump blindly off a cliff on the promise you'll land on a bed of tartan cash and free stuff.

[Pasquale for King]

20 minutes ago, Dazo said:

Probably conjecture because the snp have never addressed it. I’ve no idea why this hasn’t been fully put in front of us so those that are swaying can make an informed decision. Independence is going to cost us a lot of money, let the country know how much extra tax it will cost us then people can judge whether it is worth it. 

It won’t necessarily be tax based, like other countries we will borrow or just use Quantitative Easing to stimulate growth in the huge amounts of resources that we have. 
It’s just numbers on a computer screen after all, nobody ever pays it back do they? 11 years of austerity and the U.K. was still in more debt before the pandemic hit, yet found the magic money tree to give contracts worth billions to friends and donors. 

[Pasquale for King]

17 minutes ago, Ron Burgundy said:

That's where I am at. Show me the real cost and let me decide.

If me and my kids are going to benefit then I'm in. If you can't show me that then I can't afford the risk.

You think your kids would benefit in the UK? Did they get free Uni for instance?

[Unknown user]

Just now, Ron Burgundy said:

I know we cant get cast iron guarantees over the next thirty year period but we can certainly be told the immediate and short term effects.

If anyone is living in fantasy land it's those that are willing to jump blindly off a cliff on the promise you'll land on a bed of tartan cash and free stuff.

Can we though? No one can tell us for sure what's coming next in the UK when we (hopefully) come out of the covid stuff so why the expectation for Scotland with hundreds of variables years into the future? Why can it not just be that if the country hits trouble it has to borrow and pay back in better times, like every other country on the planet. Especially the UK by the way.

[frankblack]

3 minutes ago, Pasquale for King said:

It won’t necessarily be tax based, like other countries we will borrow or just use Quantitative Easing to stimulate growth in the huge amounts of resources that we have. 
It’s just numbers on a computer screen after all, nobody ever pays it back do they? 11 years of austerity and the U.K. was still in more debt before the pandemic hit, yet found the magic money tree to give contracts worth billions to friends and donors. 

 

What central bank will support that?  It won't be the BOE.

[Unknown user]

1 minute ago, frankblack said:

 

What central bank will support that?  It won't be the BOE.

Romanov started a bank in the UK ffs, how would it be mission impossible for Scotland?

 

How shite do you guys think we are as a nation??

[frankblack]

3 minutes ago, Pasquale for King said:

You think your kids would benefit in the UK? Did they get free Uni for instance?

 

If the government is saddled with a huge debt from day 1 I doubt things like Free Uni will continue without raising taxes.

[Pasquale for King]

2 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

What central bank will support that?  It won't be the BOE.

It’s as easy as sitting someone qualified at a desk and saying your a central bank, get on with it. 
https://commonweal.scot/policy-library/scotlands-national-bank-central-banking-independent-scotland

https://commonweal.scot/New Common Weal/cache/file/7CD60AE9-A989-89DE-7BA6D326AE799439.pdf

[frankblack]

Just now, Smithee said:

Romanov started a bank in the UK ffs, how would it be mission impossible for Scotland?

 

How shite do you guys think we are as a nation??

 

Did his bank even open?

 

Remind me again how it worked out for his bank? 🤔

 

You have seen the troubles that RBS and HBOS got into which needed WM to bail them out.  Do you think an Indy Scotland could have done that?

[Pasquale for King]

9 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

If the government is saddled with a huge debt from day 1 I doubt things like Free Uni will continue without raising taxes.

You just borrow more, it’s not rocket science. Every country does it. The U.K. Government debt in the United Kingdom reached 2.14 trillion British pounds in March 2021, compared with 1.8 trillion pounds in March 2020.

Theres no guarantee we will have any debt I’m afraid. If the U.K. want a velvet glove deal like the USSR it had better be nice. 

Edited May 10, 2021 by Pasquale for King

[pablo]

35 minutes ago, Dazo said:

Probably conjecture because the snp have never addressed it. I’ve no idea why this hasn’t been fully put in front of us so those that are swaying can make an informed decision. Independence is going to cost us a lot of money, let the country know how much extra tax it will cost us then people can judge whether it is worth it. 

 

The SNP have never addressed it publicly because they have the answers! 

[frankblack]

Just now, Pasquale for King said:

It’s as easy as sitting someone qualified at a desk and saying your a central bank, get on with it. 
https://commonweal.scot/policy-library/scotlands-national-bank-central-banking-independent-scotland

https://commonweal.scot/New Common Weal/cache/file/7CD60AE9-A989-89DE-7BA6D326AE799439.pdf

 

I don't have time to read through that just now, but does it cover funding that central bank to cover the inherited share of the UK national debt and national deficit?

[JudyJudyJudy]

1 hour ago, Ron Burgundy said:

If we were to have a referendum where both sides were honest and the financial implications were laid out honestly then I would have no problem with that. 

More people voted for unionist parties so I doubt that the SNP will go near one for a very long time but they can bluster their way round it by pretending to demand one.

 

The question asked should be , should Scotland leave the current union to attempt to re-join the EU.

These should be completely separate issues . If Scotland got Indy then a seperate vote needs to take place about rejoining the EU . It should be added as any addendum to an Indy view 

[frankblack]

3 minutes ago, Pasquale for King said:

You just borrow more, it’s not rocket science. Every country does it. The U.K. Government debt in the United Kingdom reached 2.14 trillion British pounds in March 2021, compared with 1.8 trillion pounds in March 2020.

 

However, borrowing is based on your credit rating, which for a brand new independent country inheriting a sizable share of the UK national debt and having a big deficit might not be too good.

Edited May 10, 2021 by frankblack

[Ron Burgundy]

4 minutes ago, Smithee said:

Can we though? No one can tell us for sure what's coming next in the UK when we (hopefully) come out of the covid stuff so why the expectation for Scotland with hundreds of variables years into the future? Why can it not just be that if the country hits trouble it has to borrow and pay back in better times, like every other country on the planet. Especially the UK by the way.

I think if we are to become independent then a concrete plan on currency and the issue of a hard border are just a couple of the things we must know. No conjecture.

Also some think we can just walk away from the national debt whilst other independence supporters admit that can't/wont happen. Me personally? I have no idea about that.

At the moment I'm more stick than twist.

 

Also I think the attitude that if you don't want it you must be a flag waving union jack Tory does nothing but show up the nasty bigoted side of a fair few supporters.

 

The whole thing is now a complete car crash and could you imagine if another referendum is as close or maybe even closer? It doesn't bear thinking about.

 

Scotland's split now for the foreseeable future and it's horrible to see.

 

[Pasquale for King]

5 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

Did his bank even open?

 

Remind me again how it worked out for his bank? 🤔

 

You have seen the troubles that RBS and HBOS got into which needed WM to bail them out.  Do you think an Indy Scotland could have done that?

Not quite just WM, another myth. 
https://www.businessforscotland.com/bizforscotland-destroys-the-no-campaigns-bank-bail-out-lies/

[Unknown user]

1 minute ago, frankblack said:

 

Did his bank even open?

 

Remind me again how it worked out for his bank? 🤔

 

You have seen the troubles that RBS and HBOS got into which needed WM to bail them out.  Do you think an Indy Scotland could have done that?

 

Yes, his bank got a license and traded for a while. Would that be impossible for a nation to do? Are Scotland going to set up banking laws then deny itself a banking license ffs?

 

I don't think the government should have bailed them out, but yes, Scotland would have access to borrowing as well.

[Unknown user]

3 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

However, borrowing is based on your credit rating, which for a brand new independent country inheriting a sizable share of the UK national debt and having a big deficit might not be too good.

Nope, I read an interview with one of the main guys at Standard & Poors who said that as a first world economy and no track record of bad debt or missed payments (unlike the UK) that Scotland would receive a favourable credit rating.

[Boab]

1 hour ago, Ron Burgundy said:

If we were to have a referendum where both sides were honest and the financial implications were laid out honestly then I would have no problem with that. 

More people voted for unionist parties so I doubt that the SNP will go near one for a very long time but they can bluster their way round it by pretending to demand one.

 

The question asked should be , should Scotland leave the current union to attempt to re-join the EU.

With respect, mate, but honesty and politicians ?

Some of the stuff the last time was at best conjecture, at worst downright lies.

[Pasquale for King]

4 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

I don't have time to read through that just now, but does it cover funding that central bank to cover the inherited share of the UK national debt and national deficit?

As you been told we might not have to take any debt and there’s no deficit, it’s pointless talking to you as you’re entrenched with your debunked myths and won’t even read the links I’ve given you. Here’s another one to ignore. Enjoy your night pal. 
https://www.thenational.scot/politics/18080216.scotland-need-not-accept-share-uks-debt/

 

[Pasquale for King]

8 minutes ago, Ron Burgundy said:

I think if we are to become independent then a concrete plan on currency and the issue of a hard border are just a couple of the things we must know. No conjecture.

Also some think we can just walk away from the national debt whilst other independence supporters admit that can't/wont happen. Me personally? I have no idea about that.

At the moment I'm more stick than twist.

 

Also I think the attitude that if you don't want it you must be a flag waving union jack Tory does nothing but show up the nasty bigoted side of a fair few supporters.

 

The whole thing is now a complete car crash and could you imagine if another referendum is as close or maybe even closer? It doesn't bear thinking about.

 

Scotland's split now for the foreseeable future and it's horrible to see.

 

It will depend on negotiations if we walk away from the debt, if not we are liable for 8.4% of it. Should we hang around with the folk that have 100% of it? £2.14t.

 

10 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

However, borrowing is based on your credit rating, which for a brand new independent country inheriting a sizable share of the UK national debt and having a big deficit might not be too good.

You’ve heard of QE?

[Pasquale for King]

7 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

 

It most certainly does get paid back and if it didn’t, the country would pretty much grind to a halt. Most bonds are short term used for borrowing by govt as well. It’s not that different to individuals borrowing money, you default you find it harder and more expensive to borrow money. 

 

A independent Scotland borrowing would need to be much higher initially and the cost of that borrowing would be more expensive. That’s not a case for or against indepedence just the reality of what the situation would be. 
 

QE is beginning to cause problems as an aside. There was huge inflationary pressures from COVID, however, the QE many countries have intensified this pressure. The cost increases around raw materials such as steel and timber is mental, that is going to flow through to most aspects of our life, 

 

I wouldn’t be surprised if we seen hyper inflation occur, I don’t think we will but indicators point to it being a real possibility. 

Who is paid back to? The BoE is the U.K. bank, it’s bought most of the debt and used QE to fund the pandemic, Ira kept interest rates low to help. Borrowed against future resource profits.  Are you saying we can’t do all of that? Experts think differently. 

[Ron Burgundy]

11 minutes ago, Boab said:

With respect, mate, but honesty and politicians ?

Some of the stuff the last time was at best conjecture, at worst downright lies.

I agree 100%. We now decide who has lied the least in order for us to choose who to vote for.

 

The SNP and Tories are as bad as each other but they are both the only show in  town in Scotland and England.

 

I despise the Tories but the last few months  have shown the SNP up for being as equally disgusting. We have a First Minister who has the memory of a brain damaged goldfish ffs.

I would love to see NS and BJ both locked up.

 

[Pasquale for King]

9 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

The money is paid back to the buyers of the bonds. These are a wide range of financial institutions and they get paid back as per the terms of the bond. If you have a pension or certain types of investment, it’s likely they will be dealing in govt bonds. You questioned if it gets paid back it does. 

 

I was just pointing out how it works as you seemed to believe we don’t have to pay borrowing back. We do. 

 

As I said I wasn’t arguing for or against just clarifying how things work. I’ll leave the arguing for and against it to the fanatics. 👍

 

How does it get paid back, where does the money come from? More QE, UK debt is over 84% of GDP. It just keeps growing, robbing Peter to pay Paul. As I said the BoE owns most of the UK debt so it won’t need to paid back will it?

[Pasquale for King]

9 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

As an aside if Scotland does decide to go independent it should do so with its own currency and central bank, otherwise you will be setting up to fail.

That’s the plan. 

[Jeffros Furios]

33 minutes ago, Pasquale for King said:

As you been told we might not have to take any debt and there’s no deficit, it’s pointless talking to you as you’re entrenched with your debunked myths and won’t even read the links I’ve given you. Here’s another one to ignore. Enjoy your night pal. 
https://www.thenational.scot/politics/18080216.scotland-need-not-accept-share-uks-debt/

 

Sturgeon on  Radio 4 said Scotland would take a negotiated amount of the national debt

If was posted on this or the other thread within the last 2 weeks .

[Unknown user]

9 minutes ago, Jeffros Furios said:

Sturgeon on  Radio 4 said Scotland would take a negotiated amount of the national debt

If was posted on this or the other thread within the last 2 weeks .

Yeah but she isn't emperor or anything, I have a major problem with that.

[OmiyaHearts]

If scotland goes independent and has to take on xx percent of the UK debt, I assume it also gets the same percentage of UK assets?

[OmiyaHearts]

Sorry if that's a daft assumption. I'm now trying to get my head round it all.

 

Sounds like the whole thing is a simple process but people against it are trying to make it sound a lot more complicated?

Edited May 10, 2021 by OmiyaHearts

[Jeffros Furios]

3 minutes ago, Smithee said:

Yeah but she isn't emperor or anything, I have a major problem with that.

Yeah I remember you mentioning it previously,  its good to know what she intends to do though. 

We have enough lies and spin as it is .

[Konrad von Carstein]

1 hour ago, frankblack said:

 

Truth hurts.

I'm sure you'll get over it.

[Gizmo]

58 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

However, borrowing is based on your credit rating, which for a brand new independent country inheriting a sizable share of the UK national debt and having a big deficit might not be too good.

 

If - and its an if since international precedent is that the seceding country takes NO debt - then we’ll be taking a pro ratA share of assets, too. 

That, plus the ransom over the siting of Trident for X years will cover us. The bailing out of the banks was mostly financed by the US, btw. 

Regarding currency, the Scottish pound will be a hard currency, we are an established, wealthy economy with our own separate judicial system, education and NHS. We won’t be starting from scratch.  

It’s insulting that you somehow believe that Scotland is a basket case when it has a diverse economy and major assets like having a huge share of Europe’s renewable energy, whilst also being secure in terms of fresh water provision and power generation. 

If you don’t want to leave the UK, that’s your prerogative naturally, identity is a big thing. But to say we can’t go it alone  is just bullshit. Especially if your figures are based on the UK government borrowing and spending on our behalf.
 

[Unknown user]

6 minutes ago, Jeffros Furios said:

Yeah I remember you mentioning it previously,  its good to know what she intends to do though. 

We have enough lies and spin as it is .

Well this is very true, I'd much prefer for intentions to be up front and up for debate.

 

But you'll need to get used to hearing this one I'm afraid, it's not one I'm going to let lie when the global established standard is that a successor nation doesn't take a share of national debt with it.

[Cade]

Hyper inflation?

 

Interest rates are at historic lows.

Interest rate rises combat inflation as people will prefer to save rather than spend and because borrowing money gets more expensive. 

Printing money (Quantitative Easing) increases inflation.

There is plenty headroom to print billions before inflation becomes an issue.

The only reason the UK isn't doing that is due to political dogma and an unwillingness to devalue it's own currency even a tiny bit.

Never mind that it's been almost constantly spinning new money out of thin air every year since 2008.

[Jeffros Furios]

1 minute ago, Smithee said:

Well this is very true, I'd much prefer for intentions to be up front and up for debate.

 

But you'll need to get used to hearing this one I'm afraid, it's not one I'm going to let lie when the global established standard is that a successor nation doesn't take a share of national debt with it.

It doesn't really bother me as I'm pretty pissed off with all political parties .

Next issue currency 

[OmiyaHearts]

1 minute ago, Lord BJ said:

As a matter of interest what do you view as U.K. assets? 

I have no idea, it's well beyond my comprehension. Just trying to get an understanding of the situation. 

[ri Alban]

56 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

As an aside if Scotland does decide to go independent it should do so with its own currency and central bank, otherwise you will be setting up to fail.

Ireland seem OK to me. They used the pound for a while, did they not. 

 

As for banks. The Scottish Parliament signed off on the Bank of scotland in 1695. I'm sure the Scottish Parliament can set up their own bank. But wait, its Scotland, the shitest wee country in the world, where nothing works or runs out as soon as it goes itself. 

 

 

Sorry. Let's just let WM take the lot. While telling us how skint and pathetic we are. And enough of you seem to believe it. 

[frankblack]

23 minutes ago, Gizmo said:

 

If - and its an if since international precedent is that the seceding country takes NO debt - then we’ll be taking a pro ratA share of assets, too. 

 

I posted a link a few weeks back on another thread.

 

In 2014 the White Paper accepted the need to divide the assets and national debt.

 

23 minutes ago, Gizmo said:

That, plus the ransom over the siting of Trident for X years will cover us. The bailing out of the banks was mostly financed by the US, btw. 

 

 

Trident etc would be resolved in the settlement arrangements.

 

23 minutes ago, Gizmo said:

Regarding currency, the Scottish pound will be a hard currency, we are an established, wealthy economy with our own separate judicial system, education and NHS. We won’t be starting from scratch.  

 

 

The UK is an established, wealthy economy, which supports the education and NHS funding.

 

Scotland is yet to be proven.

 

23 minutes ago, Gizmo said:

It’s insulting that you somehow believe that Scotland is a basket case when it has a diverse economy and major assets like having a huge share of Europe’s renewable energy, whilst also being secure in terms of fresh water provision and power generation. 

 

 

Where does that money go to - it hasn't stopped the energy cartel increasing prices.  How much does it contribute in tax revenues?

 

23 minutes ago, Gizmo said:

If you don’t want to leave the UK, that’s your prerogative naturally, identity is a big thing. But to say we can’t go it alone  is just bullshit. Especially if your figures are based on the UK government borrowing and spending on our behalf.
 

 

I am just saying that instead of being vague on the impact of independence it is time for the nationalists to commit to their strategy so it can be scrutinised.

[SwindonJambo]

4 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

 

I’m just not sure there is much of a discussion, what in Scotland belong to Scotland. I don’t really think the UK has any assets as such to get a share of.

 

 

Overseas territories (Falklands (which has oil), Gibraltar etc) and military assets such as ships and planes? Owned by the UK as a whole and perhaps scope for some offsetting against sovereign debt share?

[SwindonJambo]

1 minute ago, Lord BJ said:

 

Yeah fair enough, possibly. Maybe we could put some tartan tammies on the monkeys and puffins so we know which ones are Scottish are rUK.

 

I

🤣 And keep doing that as their offspring are born, to keep the numbers up...

[Pasquale for King]

1 hour ago, Jeffros Furios said:

Sturgeon on  Radio 4 said Scotland would take a negotiated amount of the national debt

If was posted on this or the other thread within the last 2 weeks .

I haven’t said we wouldn’t just that we don’t have to, it will depend on the negotiations and how undemocratic the U.K. is. 

[Pasquale for King]

52 minutes ago, OmiyaHearts said:

If scotland goes independent and has to take on xx percent of the UK debt, I assume it also gets the same percentage of UK assets?

Yes, the assets that are in the country. https://www.thenational.scot/politics/18080216.scotland-need-not-accept-share-uks-debt/

[hughesie27]

Why do people always associate tax going up as a bad thing? They don't see the bigger picture.

[Pasquale for King]

44 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

I genuinely not sure if your trolling me now.🤔

However, I’ll take it at face value. The government operates at a surplus and pays the debt back. That’s kind of the idea of austerity, you create a surplus to reduce debt.
 

The BofE doesn’t owe itself, money. Your fundamentally misunderstanding their role. 
They issue bonds to the financial markets, those bonds are bought up by financial institutions and the BofE buys any remaining bonds, that don’t sell. However, those bonds are issued back onto the financial market in the future. These bonds eventually find there way back onto financial markets and need to be paid back. The BofE are temporary holder until money is really borrowed, kind of helps with our countries cash flow.

 

It’s not just printing money and saying thats got another 200billion, that would devalue your currency and cause all manners of others issues. I would argue you can’t create value out of nothing but crypto currency has made me re-evaluate my views to extrintent value😂

 

The situation the U.K. and most developed countries, find themselves in due to COVID  is effectively  government having to adding massively to their debt. The pay back still has to happen and that burden will likely fall onto future generations (not dissimilar for us paying slavers off and for wars) the obvious answers is higher tax, lower services to create a budget surplus. The real issue countries face at the moment, is money is dirt cheap to borrow at the moment, that changes the challenges will become much more pressing. 

 

You can keep adding to your debt but at some point you reach a tipping point. That said the only ways you get yourself out the economic mess of COVID is to spend spend spend.
 

To be honest if Scotland was going to go independent, immediately after the COVID crisis had passed would be a good time. You likely leave a very expensive chunk of debt with rUK.🤷🏻‍♂️

 

 

Good explanation thanks for that. The BoE can make disappear though?

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-8801909/Free-money-Bank-England-150bn-UK-debt-disappear.html
We would take 8.4% of the debt if we choose too as that’s our population of the U.K. so would leave them with a huge debt and a lot less resources to cut the deficit with austerity. 
Im all for tax rises for the rich. 
Hopefully those running Scotland will pick the best time to have the referendum. 

[Pasquale for King]

3 minutes ago, hughesie27 said:

Why do people always associate tax going up as a bad thing? They don't see the bigger picture.

Exactly. As you say it’s people that look after themselves first and the rest later.