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Mathematically calculating when we wrap up the league


Restonbabe

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Hagar the Horrible
1 hour ago, David McCaig said:
  P PTS PPG 27 Games MAX games required to reach 42 points
Hearts 19 42 2.21 59.68 66 0.0
Raith 16 27 1.69 45.56 60 8.9
Dunfermline 17 27 1.59 42.88 57 9.4
QOS 19 27 1.42 38.37 51 10.6
Dundee 17 24 1.41 38.12 54 12.8
Arbroath 19 21 1.11 29.84 45 19.0
Inverness 17 20 1.18 31.76 50 18.7
Ayr Utd 17 20 1.18 31.76 50 18.7
Morton 18 19 1.06 28.50 46 21.8
Alloa 19 14 0.74 19.89 38 38.0

 

 

Based on PPG we need 4 points to win the League and 1 point to finish 2nd.

6 more wins WILL win us the league on GD in any case, 4 will be enough, 2 should be enough and chances are we are already over the line if RR or anybody else even reaches the 42 marker.

 

Its a big ask for RR to win 11 games IAR when they have only won 8 so far 50%, even wiining the next 5 and we lose the next 2 two is a huge ask, and then to out perform us just in the last 6 games.

 

So we should bookmark the actual game we did win the league, as well as the game when we do, as chances are we have already crossed the line, but i do predict RR will reach 44, so this weekends game against Ayr could result in us running amok in Gorgie breaking lockdown restrictions....oh wait we are not mental.

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David McCaig
35 minutes ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

6 more wins WILL win us the league on GD in any case, 4 will be enough, 2 should be enough and chances are we are already over the line if RR or anybody else even reaches the 42 marker.

 

Its a big ask for RR to win 11 games IAR when they have only won 8 so far 50%, even wiining the next 5 and we lose the next 2 two is a huge ask, and then to out perform us just in the last 6 games.

 

So we should bookmark the actual game we did win the league, as well as the game when we do, as chances are we have already crossed the line, but i do predict RR will reach 44, so this weekends game against Ayr could result in us running amok in Gorgie breaking lockdown restrictions....oh wait we are not mental.

You might need need to scroll right on your phone to see the final column but based on Raith's current point accrual it would take them another 9 matches to reach our current points total of 42.

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Hagar the Horrible
27 minutes ago, David McCaig said:

You might need need to scroll right on your phone to see the final column but based on Raith's current point accrual it would take them another 9 matches to reach our current points total of 42.

Sorry bud a bit of cross purposes here, you are right based on PPG so far, but they are 15 points behind us, in real terns they would need to win the next 5 games, but we would have 2 games where we would both be on 21 games, and would have to lose both.  But as you said after 9 games based on PPG to be where we are now and after 11 games best they can hope for is 46, even at a push 50 points, thats still just 3 games we need to win

 

Dunfermline, RR, QOS and Scumdee all play each other, one wont dominate the others

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David McCaig
2 hours ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

Sorry bud a bit of cross purposes here, you are right based on PPG so far, but they are 15 points behind us, in real terns they would need to win the next 5 games, but we would have 2 games where we would both be on 21 games, and would have to lose both.  But as you said after 9 games based on PPG to be where we are now and after 11 games best they can hope for is 46, even at a push 50 points, thats still just 3 games we need to win

 

Dunfermline, RR, QOS and Scumdee all play each other, one wont dominate the others

 

The view point I'm coming from is trying to rebut the suggest that somehow we are just creeping over the line, when in reality we are clear by a country mile.

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Hagar the Horrible
3 minutes ago, David McCaig said:

 

The view point I'm coming from is trying to rebut the suggest that somehow we are just creeping over the line, when in reality we are clear by a country mile.

The arguement against that is if we played better in the 3 drawn games we would already have sprinted towards the line. We will do as you say, but it is just a hard watch, to be fair I have watched Liverpools last few home games and bejeezus its just as bad with a billion dollar squad trying to walk the ball in, so its all relative

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The sooner it’s confirmed the sooner we can make moves for players ahead of next season.....not many pre contract signings have been made by the others as yet.

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davemclaren
2 minutes ago, DH1986 said:

The sooner it’s confirmed the sooner we can make moves for players ahead of next season.....not many pre contract signings have been made by the others as yet.

The uncertainty around crowds returning will inhibit that I imagine. 

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In the 3 drawn games we had 45 shots at goal with 10 on target, if we had just been less wasteful the league would be over already.

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Hagar the Horrible
6 hours ago, brux said:

In the 3 drawn games we had 45 shots at goal with 10 on target, if we had just been less wasteful the league would be over already.

And that has been my issue, the reason so few on target is endlessly keeping the ball and trying to walk it in, and extra pass or an extra touch allowing defenders to get a block in.  keeping possetion is more important that shooting or crossing the ball

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iwasthere1954
44 minutes ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

And that has been my issue, the reason so few on target is endlessly keeping the ball and trying to walk it in, and extra pass or an extra touch allowing defenders to get a block in.  keeping possetion is more important that shooting or crossing the ball

I remember a couple of seasons under CL when in quite a few games we had no shots on target. Now that was worth complaining about. 

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Restonbabe
4 hours ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

And that has been my issue, the reason so few on target is endlessly keeping the ball and trying to walk it in, and extra pass or an extra touch allowing defenders to get a block in.  keeping possetion is more important that shooting or crossing the ball

I've always said that. Even said it to Euan Henderson when I seen him Riccarton. I explained if you didn't look for a pass and instead of took a shot at goal, us fans would applaud the effort, even if it did hit the corner flag. The end game is the ball in the back of the net 

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Juho_Makela_Goal_Machine

Raith playing Ayr tonight. Would be nice to see them get beat to nudge the date we officially win the league a bit closer.

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DETTY29
15 minutes ago, Juho_Makela_Goal_Machine said:

Raith playing Ayr tonight. Would be nice to see them get beat to nudge the date we officially win the league a bit closer.

I'd take a draw.

 

There are no good guys outside of us and ICT in this league but some of the bad guys are worse than the rest.  Ayr is one of the really bad guys so I wouldn't want them getting all 3 to keep them away from the danger zone.

 

Alloa automatic relegation and Ayr in play off place is probably best option as it's unlikely McPake will take Dundee down.

Edited by DETTY29
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Juho_Makela_Goal_Machine
2 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

I'd take a draw.

 

There are no good guys outside of us and ICT in this league but some of the bad guys are worse than the rest.  Ayr is one of the really bad guys so I wouldn't want them getting all 3 to keep them away from the danger zone.

 

Alloa automatic relegation and Ayr in play off place is probably best option as it's unlikely McPake will take Dundee down.

 

While I appreciate the sentiment, after we're out this league they will all go back to their miserable existence of the prospect of a Kilmarnock away day being the highlight of their season. Therefore, the best thing we can do is get the league wrapped up as quickly as possible.

 

I do agree that it is important that fans keep in their mind the teams that shafted us, as the confusion over the Arbroath pish has shown. For me, if they voted for reconstruction but also for ending the league, its a 5 year spell of no cash from me in any way. If they voted against reconstruction and for ending the season, its 10. Special cases like Dundee, Dundee United, Raith etc. I'll really struggle to ever give them cash again.

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Footballfirst

Updated table

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG
Hearts 19 42 24 66 2.21
Raith 17 28 30 58 1.65
Dunfermline 17 27 30 57 1.59
QOTS 19 27 24 51 1.42
Dundee 17 24 30 54 1.41
Morton 19 22 24 46 1.16
Ayr 18 21 27 48 1.17
Arbroath 19 21 24 45 1.11
ICT 18 20 27 47 1.11
Alloa 19 14 24 38 0.74
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Restonbabe

Still sticking to dunfermline away 3rd April when we win it 

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hmfc_liam06
7 hours ago, Restonbabe said:

I've always said that. Even said it to Euan Henderson when I seen him Riccarton. I explained if you didn't look for a pass and instead of took a shot at goal, us fans would applaud the effort, even if it did hit the corner flag. The end game is the ball in the back of the net 

 

I'm sure he appreciated the insight...

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2205ian
11 minutes ago, Restonbabe said:

Still sticking to dunfermline away 3rd April when we win it 

We will be playing Stranraer in Scottish Cup that day after beating Brora in Rd 2.

 

Potentially lots of midweek league games in April if we keep progressing in SC.

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Awbdy Oot
7 hours ago, Restonbabe said:

I've always said that. Even said it to Euan Henderson when I seen him Riccarton. I explained if you didn't look for a pass and instead of took a shot at goal, us fans would applaud the effort, even if it did hit the corner flag. The end game is the ball in the back of the net 

 

How does hitting the corner flag help if the end game is the ball in the back of the net?

Unless it hits the corner flag and someone runs out to get the ball then maybe looks for a pass to someone who can then walk the ball into the net.

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DETTY29
40 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Updated table

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG
Hearts 19 42 24 66 2.21
Raith 17 28 30 58 1.65
Dunfermline 17 27 30 57 1.59
QOTS 19 27 24 51 1.42
Dundee 17 24 30 54 1.41
Morton 19 22 24 46 1.16
Ayr 18 21 27 48 1.17
Arbroath 19 21 24 45 1.11
ICT 18 20 27 47 1.11
Alloa 19 14 24 38 0.74

So at Raith's current PPG, we likely win the league with a win on Saturday.

Edited by DETTY29
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Footballfirst
3 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

So at Raith's current PPG, we win the likely league with a win on Saturday.

Yes.  I've added an extra column to show that.

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @PPG
Hearts 19 42 24 66 2.21 59.7
Raith 17 28 30 58 1.65 44.5
Dunfermline 17 27 30 57 1.59 42.9
QOTS 19 27 24 51 1.42 38.4
Dundee 17 24 30 54 1.41 38.1
Morton 19 22 24 46 1.16 31.3
Ayr 18 21 27 48 1.17 31.5
Arbroath 19 21 24 45 1.11 29.8
ICT 18 20 27 47 1.11 30.0
Alloa 19 14 24 38 0.74 19.9
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ToqueJambo
7 hours ago, DETTY29 said:

I'd take a draw.

 

There are no good guys outside of us and ICT in this league but some of the bad guys are worse than the rest.  Ayr is one of the really bad guys so I wouldn't want them getting all 3 to keep them away from the danger zone.

 

Alloa automatic relegation and Ayr in play off place is probably best option as it's unlikely McPake will take Dundee down.

 

The reconstruction vote is the unclear one as not every club seems to have confirmed their position, but I think Edinburgh City and East Fife tried to do the right thing, at least in the first vote, which is the key one. Did only these L1 and L2 clubs vote against - Edinburgh City, East Fife, Falkirk, Stranraer, PT?

 

The REAL bad guys voted for the Resolution, against reconstruction and against the inquiry into the SPFL.

 

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/rangers-spfl-resolution-breakdown-every-22016931

 

Edited by ToqueJambo
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GinRummy
15 hours ago, Restonbabe said:

I've always said that. Even said it to Euan Henderson when I seen him Riccarton. I explained if you didn't look for a pass and instead of took a shot at goal, us fans would applaud the effort, even if it did hit the corner flag. The end game is the ball in the back of the net 

What did he say in reply?

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Smith's right boot
18 hours ago, Restonbabe said:

I've always said that. Even said it to Euan Henderson when I seen him Riccarton. I explained if you didn't look for a pass and instead of took a shot at goal, us fans would applaud the effort, even if it did hit the corner flag. The end game is the ball in the back of the net 

 

Tbh, hitting the shots hasn't been the issue, it's hitting the target, especially in the 3 draws, we seemed to miss the target a lot.

 

 

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Restonbabe
4 hours ago, GinRummy said:

What did he say in reply?

He scored so. Quiet laddie really. He needs a run of games and faith put in him. Don't think it will happen for him at hearts. Not under Robbie 

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wavydavy
12 hours ago, DETTY29 said:

So at Raith's current PPG, we likely win the league with a win on Saturday.

 

You know what that means now you have suggested this?

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Juho_Makela_Goal_Machine

Another good result for us again last night. The teams in this league are totally humpty. I think mathematically it will get done with 4 straight wins from here, or 2 wins and a draw from the next 3 and then beating Dunfermline. One last push and then the younger players can get a few games under their belts.

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DETTY29
31 minutes ago, wavydavy said:

 

You know what that means now you have suggested this?

Haha.

 

All of Raith, Dunfermline, Dundee, QOS get beat.

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Longbaws
39 minutes ago, wavydavy said:

 

You know what that means now you have suggested this?

I fear for the benches on Princes St

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hmfc_steve
3 hours ago, Smith's right boot said:

 

Tbh, hitting the shots hasn't been the issue, it's hitting the target, especially in the 3 draws, we seemed to miss the target a lot.

 

 

Maybe we should practice shooting ?

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Hagar the Horrible
13 hours ago, Footballfirst said:

Yes.  I've added an extra column to show that.

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @PPG
Hearts 19 42 24 66 2.21 59.7
Raith 17 28 30 58 1.65 44.5
Dunfermline 17 27 30 57 1.59 42.9
QOTS 19 27 24 51 1.42 38.4
Dundee 17 24 30 54 1.41 38.1
Morton 19 22 24 46 1.16 31.3
Ayr 18 21 27 48 1.17 31.5
Arbroath 19 21 24 45 1.11 29.8
ICT 18 20 27 47 1.11 30.0
Alloa 19 14 24 38 0.74 19.9

This is good stuff FF, the pleasing thing, is arithmaticaly we cannot be automatically religated.  and based on PPG at that all other clubs play each other, its near arithmatically impossible for us not to be in the play-offs, but 2 wins should be enough, but I think we will get 6 minimum in anycase

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1 hour ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

This is good stuff FF, the pleasing thing, is arithmaticaly we cannot be automatically religated.  and based on PPG at that all other clubs play each other, its near arithmatically impossible for us not to be in the play-offs, but 2 wins should be enough, but I think we will get 6 minimum in anycase

I think you’re right, two more wins or 6 points will be enough as I think any of the rest will do well to reach 45 given the number of points they’re dropping against each other.

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Winning by 28 points would have been ideal though unlikely now, that way we can say the reduction to 27 games had no impact as we still would have won it if all 36 games were play and we lost the last nine.

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Footballfirst

Update after ICT v Raith  (almost there?)

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts 19 42 24 66 2.21 59.68
Raith 18 29 27 56 1.61 43.50
Dunfermline 17 27 30 57 1.59 42.88
QOTS 19 27 24 51 1.42 38.37
Dundee 17 24 30 54 1.41 38.12
Morton 19 22 24 46 1.16 31.26
ICT 19 21 24 45 1.11 29.84
Ayr 18 21 27 48 1.17 31.50
Arbroath 19 21 24 45 1.11 29.84
Alloa 19 14 24 38 0.74 19.89
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It’s a long shot, but Alloa are starting to string a few results together.

 

There will be a few wet pairs of bloomers on here until they, mathematically, are out the window, so to speak.

 

Will sleep come easy?

 

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16 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Update after ICT v Raith  (almost there?)

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts 19 42 24 66 2.21 59.68
Raith 18 29 27 56 1.61 43.50
Dunfermline 17 27 30 57 1.59 42.88
QOTS 19 27 24 51 1.42 38.37
Dundee 17 24 30 54 1.41 38.12
Morton 19 22 24 46 1.16 31.26
ICT 19 21 24 45 1.11 29.84
Ayr 18 21 27 48 1.17 31.50
Arbroath 19 21 24 45 1.11 29.84
Alloa 19 14 24 38 0.74 19.89

Two to two and a half games, arithmetically, and it’s done.

 

Let’s make it quick and painless, Hearts.  

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Lone Striker
16 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Update after ICT v Raith  (almost there?)

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts 19 42 24 66 2.21 59.68
Raith 18 29 27 56 1.61 43.50
Dunfermline 17 27 30 57 1.59 42.88
QOTS 19 27 24 51 1.42 38.37
Dundee 17 24 30 54 1.41 38.12
Morton 19 22 24 46 1.16 31.26
ICT 19 21 24 45 1.11 29.84
Ayr 18 21 27 48 1.17 31.50
Arbroath 19 21 24 45 1.11 29.84
Alloa 19 14 24 38 0.74 19.89

Another good result tonight from our point of view.  Let's just keep our  foot on the pedal and try to win every game, regardless.        

 

p.s.  Interesting to see  both teams tonight miss a sitter too - so its not just Boycie / GMS / Gnando that do it.  

 

 

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Lone Striker
6 minutes ago, Morgan said:

It’s a long shot, but Alloa are starting to string a few results together.

 

There will be a few wet pairs of bloomers on here until they, mathematically, are out the window, so to speak.

 

Will sleep come easy?

 

😀    Interesting to see what rabbits the SPFL pull out the hat to enable Mulraney's Alloa to avoid relegation.  :whistling:

 

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11 minutes ago, Lone Striker said:

Another good result tonight from our point of view.  Let's just keep our  foot on the pedal and try to win every game, regardless.        

 

p.s.  Interesting to see  both teams tonight miss a sitter too - so its not just Boycie / GMS / Gnando that do it.  

 

 

 

👍

 

That won’t go down well with some.  😀

 

1 minute ago, Lone Striker said:

😀    Interesting to see what rabbits the SPFL pull out the hat to enable Mulraney's Alloa to avoid relegation.  :whistling:

 

 

 

True.

 

They will, no doubt, indulge in some skullduggery.

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Thomaso
On 09/03/2021 at 13:45, Restonbabe said:

I've always said that. Even said it to Euan Henderson when I seen him Riccarton. I explained if you didn't look for a pass and instead of took a shot at goal, us fans would applaud the effort, even if it did hit the corner flag. The end game is the ball in the back of the net 


The corner flag?? 🙄

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Restonbabe
6 hours ago, Thomaso said:


The corner flag?? 🙄

Yeah. See when your running in from the side and scuff your shot across the goal but miss the target. Chances are your gonna hit the corner flag. 

Fans are going to applaud the effort. 

Reset and go again. 

Still very much against modern day football. Stop passing it about the 18 yard box. Find some space and have a dig. 

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allystrachan
8 hours ago, Morgan said:

It’s a long shot, but Alloa are starting to string a few results together.

 

There will be a few wet pairs of bloomers on here until they, mathematically, are out the window, so to speak.

 

Will sleep come easy?

 

Don’t worry mate. They are mathematically out of the picture. We officially cant be relegated. 

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Fxxx the SPFL
2 hours ago, Restonbabe said:

Yeah. See when your running in from the side and scuff your shot across the goal but miss the target. Chances are your gonna hit the corner flag. 

Fans are going to applaud the effort. 

Reset and go again. 

Still very much against modern day football. Stop passing it about the 18 yard box. Find some space and have a dig. 

shoot shoot shoot say fans totally agree

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schillaci

Big match today. If we win and either Morton or Arbroath fail to win, we can't finish in bottom two. I might be able to sleep tonight!

 

Oh no! What if we have points deducted?

 

Edited by schillaci
Thought of a new thing to worry about.
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GinRummy
11 minutes ago, schillaci said:

Big match today. If we win and either Morton or Arbroath fail to win, we can't finish in bottom two. I might be able to sleep tonight!

 

Oh no! What if we have points deducted?

 

Did anyone remember to register Andy Irving this year 😎

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Smith's right boot
10 hours ago, Morgan said:

It’s a long shot, but Alloa are starting to string a few results together.

 

There will be a few wet pairs of bloomers on here until they, mathematically, are out the window, so to speak.

 

Will sleep come easy?

 

 

 

Alloa can't catch us! 

Arbroath are the ones you want to keep an eye on. 

And Forget Dunfermline led by Wighton at your peril, he's gonna blast them to promotion and we'll regret letting him go. 

 

 

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Smith's right boot
39 minutes ago, schillaci said:

Big match today. If we win and either Morton or Arbroath fail to win, we can't finish in bottom two. I might be able to sleep tonight!

 

Oh no! What if we have points deducted?

 

 

 

6 pointer! 

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Footballfirst

Latest update

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts 20 45 21 66 2.25 60.75
Dunfermline 18 30 27 57 1.67 45.00
Raith 18 29 27 56 1.61 43.50
QOTS 20 27 21 48 1.35 36.45
Dundee 18 27 27 54 1.50 40.50
Morton 20 22 21 43 1.10 29.70
ICT 19 21 24 45 1.11 29.84
Ayr 19 21 24 45 1.11 29.84
Arbroath 20 21 21 42 1.05 28.35
Alloa 20 17 21 38 0.85 22.95
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davemclaren
2 minutes ago, sum31uk said:

Congratulations to Hearts for winning the league!

A bit premature. 😄

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