Mathematically calculating when we wrap up the league

[iwasthere1954]

44 minutes ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

And that has been my issue, the reason so few on target is endlessly keeping the ball and trying to walk it in, and extra pass or an extra touch allowing defenders to get a block in.  keeping possetion is more important that shooting or crossing the ball

I remember a couple of seasons under CL when in quite a few games we had no shots on target. Now that was worth complaining about. 

[Restonbabe]

4 hours ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

And that has been my issue, the reason so few on target is endlessly keeping the ball and trying to walk it in, and extra pass or an extra touch allowing defenders to get a block in.  keeping possetion is more important that shooting or crossing the ball

I've always said that. Even said it to Euan Henderson when I seen him Riccarton. I explained if you didn't look for a pass and instead of took a shot at goal, us fans would applaud the effort, even if it did hit the corner flag. The end game is the ball in the back of the net 

[Juho_Makela_Goal_Machine]

Raith playing Ayr tonight. Would be nice to see them get beat to nudge the date we officially win the league a bit closer.

[DETTY29]

15 minutes ago, Juho_Makela_Goal_Machine said:

Raith playing Ayr tonight. Would be nice to see them get beat to nudge the date we officially win the league a bit closer.

I'd take a draw.

 

There are no good guys outside of us and ICT in this league but some of the bad guys are worse than the rest.  Ayr is one of the really bad guys so I wouldn't want them getting all 3 to keep them away from the danger zone.

 

Alloa automatic relegation and Ayr in play off place is probably best option as it's unlikely McPake will take Dundee down.

Edited March 9, 2021 by DETTY29

[Juho_Makela_Goal_Machine]

2 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

I'd take a draw.

 

There are no good guys outside of us and ICT in this league but some of the bad guys are worse than the rest.  Ayr is one of the really bad guys so I wouldn't want them getting all 3 to keep them away from the danger zone.

 

Alloa automatic relegation and Ayr in play off place is probably best option as it's unlikely McPake will take Dundee down.

 

While I appreciate the sentiment, after we're out this league they will all go back to their miserable existence of the prospect of a Kilmarnock away day being the highlight of their season. Therefore, the best thing we can do is get the league wrapped up as quickly as possible.

 

I do agree that it is important that fans keep in their mind the teams that shafted us, as the confusion over the Arbroath pish has shown. For me, if they voted for reconstruction but also for ending the league, its a 5 year spell of no cash from me in any way. If they voted against reconstruction and for ending the season, its 10. Special cases like Dundee, Dundee United, Raith etc. I'll really struggle to ever give them cash again.

[Footballfirst]

Updated table

 

	P	Pts	Avail	Max	PPG
Hearts	19	42	24	66	2.21
Raith	17	28	30	58	1.65
Dunfermline	17	27	30	57	1.59
QOTS	19	27	24	51	1.42
Dundee	17	24	30	54	1.41
Morton	19	22	24	46	1.16
Ayr	18	21	27	48	1.17
Arbroath	19	21	24	45	1.11
ICT	18	20	27	47	1.11
Alloa	19	14	24	38	0.74

[Restonbabe]

Still sticking to dunfermline away 3rd April when we win it 

[hmfc_liam06]

7 hours ago, Restonbabe said:

I've always said that. Even said it to Euan Henderson when I seen him Riccarton. I explained if you didn't look for a pass and instead of took a shot at goal, us fans would applaud the effort, even if it did hit the corner flag. The end game is the ball in the back of the net 

 

I'm sure he appreciated the insight...

[2205ian]

11 minutes ago, Restonbabe said:

Still sticking to dunfermline away 3rd April when we win it 

We will be playing Stranraer in Scottish Cup that day after beating Brora in Rd 2.

 

Potentially lots of midweek league games in April if we keep progressing in SC.

[graygo]

7 hours ago, Restonbabe said:

I've always said that. Even said it to Euan Henderson when I seen him Riccarton. I explained if you didn't look for a pass and instead of took a shot at goal, us fans would applaud the effort, even if it did hit the corner flag. The end game is the ball in the back of the net 

 

How does hitting the corner flag help if the end game is the ball in the back of the net?

Unless it hits the corner flag and someone runs out to get the ball then maybe looks for a pass to someone who can then walk the ball into the net.

[DETTY29]

40 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Updated table

 

	P	Pts	Avail	Max	PPG
Hearts	19	42	24	66	2.21
Raith	17	28	30	58	1.65
Dunfermline	17	27	30	57	1.59
QOTS	19	27	24	51	1.42
Dundee	17	24	30	54	1.41
Morton	19	22	24	46	1.16
Ayr	18	21	27	48	1.17
Arbroath	19	21	24	45	1.11
ICT	18	20	27	47	1.11
Alloa	19	14	24	38	0.74

So at Raith's current PPG, we likely win the league with a win on Saturday.

Edited March 9, 2021 by DETTY29

[Footballfirst]

3 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

So at Raith's current PPG, we win the likely league with a win on Saturday.

Yes.  I've added an extra column to show that.

 

	P	Pts	Avail	Max	PPG	Pts @PPG
Hearts	19	42	24	66	2.21	59.7
Raith	17	28	30	58	1.65	44.5
Dunfermline	17	27	30	57	1.59	42.9
QOTS	19	27	24	51	1.42	38.4
Dundee	17	24	30	54	1.41	38.1
Morton	19	22	24	46	1.16	31.3
Ayr	18	21	27	48	1.17	31.5
Arbroath	19	21	24	45	1.11	29.8
ICT	18	20	27	47	1.11	30.0
Alloa	19	14	24	38	0.74	19.9

[Guest ToqueJambo]

7 hours ago, DETTY29 said:

I'd take a draw.

 

There are no good guys outside of us and ICT in this league but some of the bad guys are worse than the rest.  Ayr is one of the really bad guys so I wouldn't want them getting all 3 to keep them away from the danger zone.

 

Alloa automatic relegation and Ayr in play off place is probably best option as it's unlikely McPake will take Dundee down.

 

The reconstruction vote is the unclear one as not every club seems to have confirmed their position, but I think Edinburgh City and East Fife tried to do the right thing, at least in the first vote, which is the key one. Did only these L1 and L2 clubs vote against - Edinburgh City, East Fife, Falkirk, Stranraer, PT?

 

The REAL bad guys voted for the Resolution, against reconstruction and against the inquiry into the SPFL.

 

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/rangers-spfl-resolution-breakdown-every-22016931

 

Edited March 9, 2021 by ToqueJambo

[GinRummy]

15 hours ago, Restonbabe said:

I've always said that. Even said it to Euan Henderson when I seen him Riccarton. I explained if you didn't look for a pass and instead of took a shot at goal, us fans would applaud the effort, even if it did hit the corner flag. The end game is the ball in the back of the net 

What did he say in reply?

[Penrices left boot]

18 hours ago, Restonbabe said:

I've always said that. Even said it to Euan Henderson when I seen him Riccarton. I explained if you didn't look for a pass and instead of took a shot at goal, us fans would applaud the effort, even if it did hit the corner flag. The end game is the ball in the back of the net 

 

Tbh, hitting the shots hasn't been the issue, it's hitting the target, especially in the 3 draws, we seemed to miss the target a lot.

 

 

[Restonbabe]

4 hours ago, GinRummy said:

What did he say in reply?

He scored so. Quiet laddie really. He needs a run of games and faith put in him. Don't think it will happen for him at hearts. Not under Robbie 

[wavydavy]

12 hours ago, DETTY29 said:

So at Raith's current PPG, we likely win the league with a win on Saturday.

 

You know what that means now you have suggested this?

[Juho_Makela_Goal_Machine]

Another good result for us again last night. The teams in this league are totally humpty. I think mathematically it will get done with 4 straight wins from here, or 2 wins and a draw from the next 3 and then beating Dunfermline. One last push and then the younger players can get a few games under their belts.

[DETTY29]

31 minutes ago, wavydavy said:

 

You know what that means now you have suggested this?

Haha.

 

All of Raith, Dunfermline, Dundee, QOS get beat.

[Longbaws]

39 minutes ago, wavydavy said:

 

You know what that means now you have suggested this?

I fear for the benches on Princes St

[hmfc_steve]

3 hours ago, Smith's right boot said:

 

Tbh, hitting the shots hasn't been the issue, it's hitting the target, especially in the 3 draws, we seemed to miss the target a lot.

 

 

Maybe we should practice shooting ?

[Hagar the Horrible]

13 hours ago, Footballfirst said:

Yes.  I've added an extra column to show that.

 

	P	Pts	Avail	Max	PPG	Pts @PPG
Hearts	19	42	24	66	2.21	59.7
Raith	17	28	30	58	1.65	44.5
Dunfermline	17	27	30	57	1.59	42.9
QOTS	19	27	24	51	1.42	38.4
Dundee	17	24	30	54	1.41	38.1
Morton	19	22	24	46	1.16	31.3
Ayr	18	21	27	48	1.17	31.5
Arbroath	19	21	24	45	1.11	29.8
ICT	18	20	27	47	1.11	30.0
Alloa	19	14	24	38	0.74	19.9

This is good stuff FF, the pleasing thing, is arithmaticaly we cannot be automatically religated.  and based on PPG at that all other clubs play each other, its near arithmatically impossible for us not to be in the play-offs, but 2 wins should be enough, but I think we will get 6 minimum in anycase

[sac]

1 hour ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

This is good stuff FF, the pleasing thing, is arithmaticaly we cannot be automatically religated.  and based on PPG at that all other clubs play each other, its near arithmatically impossible for us not to be in the play-offs, but 2 wins should be enough, but I think we will get 6 minimum in anycase

I think you’re right, two more wins or 6 points will be enough as I think any of the rest will do well to reach 45 given the number of points they’re dropping against each other.

[Biko]

Winning by 28 points would have been ideal though unlikely now, that way we can say the reduction to 27 games had no impact as we still would have won it if all 36 games were play and we lost the last nine.

[Footballfirst]

Update after ICT v Raith  (almost there?)

 

	P	Pts	Avail	Max	PPG	Pts @ PPG
Hearts	19	42	24	66	2.21	59.68
Raith	18	29	27	56	1.61	43.50
Dunfermline	17	27	30	57	1.59	42.88
QOTS	19	27	24	51	1.42	38.37
Dundee	17	24	30	54	1.41	38.12
Morton	19	22	24	46	1.16	31.26
ICT	19	21	24	45	1.11	29.84
Ayr	18	21	27	48	1.17	31.50
Arbroath	19	21	24	45	1.11	29.84
Alloa	19	14	24	38	0.74	19.89

[Morgan]

It’s a long shot, but Alloa are starting to string a few results together.

 

There will be a few wet pairs of bloomers on here until they, mathematically, are out the window, so to speak.

 

Will sleep come easy?

 

[Morgan]

16 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Update after ICT v Raith  (almost there?)

 

	P	Pts	Avail	Max	PPG	Pts @ PPG
Hearts	19	42	24	66	2.21	59.68
Raith	18	29	27	56	1.61	43.50
Dunfermline	17	27	30	57	1.59	42.88
QOTS	19	27	24	51	1.42	38.37
Dundee	17	24	30	54	1.41	38.12
Morton	19	22	24	46	1.16	31.26
ICT	19	21	24	45	1.11	29.84
Ayr	18	21	27	48	1.17	31.50
Arbroath	19	21	24	45	1.11	29.84
Alloa	19	14	24	38	0.74	19.89

Two to two and a half games, arithmetically, and it’s done.

 

Let’s make it quick and painless, Hearts.  

[Lone Striker]

16 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Update after ICT v Raith  (almost there?)

 

	P	Pts	Avail	Max	PPG	Pts @ PPG
Hearts	19	42	24	66	2.21	59.68
Raith	18	29	27	56	1.61	43.50
Dunfermline	17	27	30	57	1.59	42.88
QOTS	19	27	24	51	1.42	38.37
Dundee	17	24	30	54	1.41	38.12
Morton	19	22	24	46	1.16	31.26
ICT	19	21	24	45	1.11	29.84
Ayr	18	21	27	48	1.17	31.50
Arbroath	19	21	24	45	1.11	29.84
Alloa	19	14	24	38	0.74	19.89

Another good result tonight from our point of view.  Let's just keep our  foot on the pedal and try to win every game, regardless.        

 

p.s.  Interesting to see  both teams tonight miss a sitter too - so its not just Boycie / GMS / Gnando that do it.  

 

 

[Lone Striker]

6 minutes ago, Morgan said:

It’s a long shot, but Alloa are starting to string a few results together.

 

There will be a few wet pairs of bloomers on here until they, mathematically, are out the window, so to speak.

 

Will sleep come easy?

 

😀    Interesting to see what rabbits the SPFL pull out the hat to enable Mulraney's Alloa to avoid relegation.  

 

[Morgan]

11 minutes ago, Lone Striker said:

Another good result tonight from our point of view.  Let's just keep our  foot on the pedal and try to win every game, regardless.        

 

p.s.  Interesting to see  both teams tonight miss a sitter too - so its not just Boycie / GMS / Gnando that do it.  

 

 

 

👍. 

 

That won’t go down well with some.  😀

 

1 minute ago, Lone Striker said:

😀    Interesting to see what rabbits the SPFL pull out the hat to enable Mulraney's Alloa to avoid relegation.  

 

 

 

True.

 

They will, no doubt, indulge in some skullduggery.

[Thomaso]

On 09/03/2021 at 13:45, Restonbabe said:

I've always said that. Even said it to Euan Henderson when I seen him Riccarton. I explained if you didn't look for a pass and instead of took a shot at goal, us fans would applaud the effort, even if it did hit the corner flag. The end game is the ball in the back of the net 

The corner flag?? 🙄

[Restonbabe]

6 hours ago, Thomaso said:

The corner flag?? 🙄

Yeah. See when your running in from the side and scuff your shot across the goal but miss the target. Chances are your gonna hit the corner flag. 

Fans are going to applaud the effort. 

Reset and go again. 

Still very much against modern day football. Stop passing it about the 18 yard box. Find some space and have a dig. 

[allystrachan]

8 hours ago, Morgan said:

It’s a long shot, but Alloa are starting to string a few results together.

 

There will be a few wet pairs of bloomers on here until they, mathematically, are out the window, so to speak.

 

Will sleep come easy?

 

Don’t worry mate. They are mathematically out of the picture. We officially cant be relegated. 

[Fxxx the SPFL]

2 hours ago, Restonbabe said:

Yeah. See when your running in from the side and scuff your shot across the goal but miss the target. Chances are your gonna hit the corner flag. 

Fans are going to applaud the effort. 

Reset and go again. 

Still very much against modern day football. Stop passing it about the 18 yard box. Find some space and have a dig. 

shoot shoot shoot say fans totally agree

[schillaci]

Big match today. If we win and either Morton or Arbroath fail to win, we can't finish in bottom two. I might be able to sleep tonight!

 

Oh no! What if we have points deducted?

 

Edited March 13, 2021 by schillaci
Thought of a new thing to worry about.

[GinRummy]

11 minutes ago, schillaci said:

Big match today. If we win and either Morton or Arbroath fail to win, we can't finish in bottom two. I might be able to sleep tonight!

 

Oh no! What if we have points deducted?

 

Did anyone remember to register Andy Irving this year 😎

[Penrices left boot]

10 hours ago, Morgan said:

It’s a long shot, but Alloa are starting to string a few results together.

 

There will be a few wet pairs of bloomers on here until they, mathematically, are out the window, so to speak.

 

Will sleep come easy?

 

 

 

Alloa can't catch us! 

Arbroath are the ones you want to keep an eye on. 

And Forget Dunfermline led by Wighton at your peril, he's gonna blast them to promotion and we'll regret letting him go. 

 

 

[Penrices left boot]

39 minutes ago, schillaci said:

Big match today. If we win and either Morton or Arbroath fail to win, we can't finish in bottom two. I might be able to sleep tonight!

 

Oh no! What if we have points deducted?

 

 

 

6 pointer! 

[Footballfirst]

Latest update

 

	P	Pts	Avail	Max	PPG	Pts @ PPG
Hearts	20	45	21	66	2.25	60.75
Dunfermline	18	30	27	57	1.67	45.00
Raith	18	29	27	56	1.61	43.50
QOTS	20	27	21	48	1.35	36.45
Dundee	18	27	27	54	1.50	40.50
Morton	20	22	21	43	1.10	29.70
ICT	19	21	24	45	1.11	29.84
Ayr	19	21	24	45	1.11	29.84
Arbroath	20	21	21	42	1.05	28.35
Alloa	20	17	21	38	0.85	22.95

[sum31uk]

Congratulations to Hearts for winning the league!

[davemclaren]

2 minutes ago, sum31uk said:

Congratulations to Hearts for winning the league!

A bit premature. 😄

[schillaci]

5 minutes ago, davemclaren said:

A bit premature. 😄

But at least we know we can't be relegated. Take succour in that. 

[Penrices left boot]

Another step to get out this dog shit league.

 

Hopefully win the next 2 and build momentum for the SC.

 

[davemclaren]

5 minutes ago, schillaci said:

But at least we know we can't be relegated. Take succour in that. 

👍

[soonbe110]

All over now. Pars and Raith have to win 5/9 remaining games to match our current total, Dundee have to win 6/9. Unlikely that any of the three will do that. 45/46 points will get someone second place. 

[JamboBoy]

Even if the Pars and Raith up their PPG to 2pts a game, which I doubt they will, we only need 2 more wins to wrap it up in all probability.

[jamboinglasgow]

Worth remembering Dunfermline's two games in hand are against Raith and Dundee.

[Lone Striker]

Good chance we'll have this wrapped up by the end of March.  We have 2 matches to play (QoS and Arbroath), while Raith, Dundee & Dunfermline play their games in hand - including  against each other ☺️

[westbow]

2 minutes ago, soonbe110 said:

All over now. Pars and Raith have to win 5/9 remaining games to match our current total, Dundee have to win 6/9. Unlikely that any of the three will do that. 45/46 points will get someone second place. 

👍

I'd say we won the league today as neither Raith or Dunfermline will get to 45 points, certainly they won't get a +27 goal difference.

[JamboBoy]

All teams nearest us are actually nearer to the relegation play off spot (9 Pts) than topping our points total which is 15 pts away. This really is such a brutal league to play in, in more ways than one!