Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[AlimOzturk]

So are Russia keeping this vaccine to themselves or what? Why isn’t this bigger news? 

[The Real Maroonblood]

1 minute ago, AlimOzturk said:

So are Russia keeping this vaccine to themselves or what? Why isn’t this bigger news? 

The bigger news is that the experts on this thread are still here but a good laugh still.

[Enzo Chiefo]

5 minutes ago, Mauricio Pinilla said:

 

It's a dangerous road to go down if we're not trusting science but yeah there's so many agendas out there and scientific facts being taken out of context or over simplified into headline format for political reasons that it's just a minefield. World is a mess. 

I agree but we have to differentiate between science , proven science, rather than the modelling  which has proved to be so wildly wrong. Universities and colleges churning out studies based sometimes not even on predictions and forecasts but on what COULD happen.  Governments and policy makers can't make sound decisions based on this form of "science". Thankfully, I think certainly at Westminster they will focus on what we know and have learned from the facts so far and disregard the professional scaremongering 

[AlimOzturk]

I mean, Russia is hardly some sort of backwater country. If they say they have a vaccine we should be taking that seriously, no? 
 

Thought this would be all over the news. Seems something positive like this doesn’t appeal to the story selling negatives that they want. 

[Francis Albert]

11 minutes ago, Mauricio Pinilla said:

 

It's a dangerous road to go down if we're not trusting science but yeah there's so many agendas out there and scientific facts being taken out of context or over simplified into headline format for political reasons that it's just a minefield. World is a mess. 

Agree but also there is no established "science" in relation to this virus and certainly no consensus among scientists about how best deal with it. 

[Francis Albert]

4 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

So are Russia keeping this vaccine to themselves or what? Why isn’t this bigger news? 

Because no-one  believes what news come out of Russia?

[AlimOzturk]

5 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Because no-one  believes what news come out of Russia?

well it would be embarrassing for them if it turns out they are talking shit about a vaccine. What would they stand to gain from that?

 

I am just curious why this isn’t bigger news. Surely those in charge arent to proud to accept the Russians won the race to a vaccine. 

Edited August 11, 2020 by AlimOzturk

[Nucky Thompson]

14 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

So are Russia keeping this vaccine to themselves or what? Why isn’t this bigger news? 

It's been on MSN today and the ITV Evening news reported it.

 

They seem to have bypassed phase 3 where you need to trial it on about 50k people. The Oxford one is doing that now in Brazil 

 

It might be a genuine contender, but it looks like they are desperate to be first 

[TheOak88]

16 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

well it would be embarrassing for them if it turns out they are talking shit about a vaccine. What would they stand to gain from that?

 

I am just curious why this isn’t bigger news. Surely those in charge arent to proud to accept the Russians won the race to a vaccine. 

 

Think they have skipped phases of the vaccine testing process. Russian state media will want to tell their people they created a vaccine first. 

 

 

[Francis Albert]

27 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

well it would be embarrassing for them if it turns out they are talking shit about a vaccine. What would they stand to gain from that?

 

I am just curious why this isn’t bigger news. Surely those in charge arent to proud to accept the Russians won the race to a vaccine. 

I think the Russian government has a pretty high  embarrassment threshold. 

The better question is why we have over-hyped news about vaccine breakthroughs here.

Edited August 11, 2020 by Francis Albert

[Pasquale for King]

1 hour ago, AlimOzturk said:

So are Russia keeping this vaccine to themselves or what? Why isn’t this bigger news? 

It said they had agreed to sell it on, but as it’s been said it’s not been through the proper tests yet.Unlike Trump trying to buy vaccines for the US only. 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/11/russia-approves-coronavirus-vaccine-despite-testing-safety-concerns-vladimir-putin

Edited August 11, 2020 by Pasquale for King

[Weakened Offender]

1 hour ago, Francis Albert said:

I think the Russian government has a pretty high  embarrassment threshold. 

The better question is why we have over-hyped news about vaccine breakthroughs here.

 

It's pretty low compared to the usual half dozen utter beamers on this thread, you included. 

Edited August 11, 2020 by Weakened Offender

[Francis Albert]

38 minutes ago, Weakened Offender said:

 

It's pretty low compared to the usual half dozen utter beamers on this thread, you included. 

On topic do you think Russia is a credible source of information about a new vaccine? Do you think the much hyped British breakthroughs on vaccinations and new tests have been accurate?

Off topic do you think calling other posters utter beamers is in any way a positive or useful contribution to.the thread?

Edited August 11, 2020 by Francis Albert

[tcjambo]

This whole situation is getting to the farcical stage. More people dying at home than in hospitals. The lockdown has been a spectacular failure and with each reported cluster the country goes into panic mode. There are only two ways that crisis will end. The first one is natural herd immunity (through speading amongst the least vulnerable)  and the second one is artificially induced herd immunity (a vaccine that works). The government is not being honest with people. Having caused the panic and failed to protect those most at risk they can hardly admit that they got it wrong but there will be a price to pay when this is analysed in a few months time and one country held its nerve whilst everybody else lost the bloody plot.

Edited August 11, 2020 by tcjambo

[JFK-1]

3 hours ago, JamesM48 said:

I think someone just actually called you out for your own Trumpism in a post .  I am facing reality but with a healthy  degree of positiveness.  You aren't. Im reading the stats which Nicky Thomson posted about the incredible drop of hospital admissions from the beginning of March to now. Plummeting by nearly 96% .  Thats reality.  Your thinking of what will happen in the future and the truth is we dont know what shall happen with this virus in the future.  After all who would have predicted hospital admissions plummeting so drastically.  Certainly not Neil Ferguson who said there would be a death rate of around 500. 000.  I'm not painting  a " rosy picture" I'm interpreting the stats for hospital admissions and deaths and that fills me with hope that things are turning the corner with this virus.  Lord knows what your basing your future analysis  regarding the virus.  Im certainly in no fantasy bubble and if i am its  a happy place just now. 

 

Well firstly I couldn't care less what any babbler has to say about me being like Trump, that's as ludicrous as your current utter pish. It doesn't matter what Nicky whoever says, that doesn't change the findings of these scientists which is all I post. Is that getting through?
 

And I feel no need to sugar coat it with some airy fairy shite i'm not qualified to comment on to give it a positive spin for those of a delicate anxious nature.

You are  in a frankly infantile fantasy bubble if you're going to whine like a bitch because someone posts recent data then doesn't make something up to put a "healthy degree of positiveness" on it for the anxious like you.

And here you are again babbling away with absolutely nothing but utter pish that amounts to some non entity said this and another said that. That's not data.

You're one of those people  who just want to be talking. Even when you have nothing of any worth to say. Reminds me of an ancient quote.

[Weakened Offender]

1 hour ago, Francis Albert said:

On topic do you think Russia is a credible source of information about a new vaccine? Do you think the much hyped British breakthroughs on vaccinations and new tests have been accurate?

Off topic do you think calling other posters utter beamers is in any way a positive or useful contribution to.the thread?

 

Yes. No. Absolutely. 

[Governor Tarkin]

In other medical news, JFK-1's charisma bypass appears to have been a complete success.

 

Edited August 12, 2020 by Governor Tarkin

[Sidelight]

11 hours ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

That IS my argument.  That we need to treat all announced figures , and scientific modelling, with a great deal of scepticism. For those who have lived lockdown by graphs and bar charts, that might prove to be a problematic inconvenience. 

 

[Bull's-eye]

As someone who is an NHS contractor and has been working in Hospitals throughout this pandemic I thought I'd give you all a bit of advice.

When I'm at work I stay 2 metres away from everybody, I dont wear a mask but I do wear gloves, when i finish work I go home and don't leave the house again until it's time to go to work. I have repeated this ground breaking formula since the beginning and have so far not contracted the virus.

 

Maybe it's just luck I suppose. 

[Governor Tarkin]

20 minutes ago, Bull's-eye said:

As someone who is an NHS contractor and has been working in Hospitals throughout this pandemic I thought I'd give you all a bit of advice.

When I'm at work I stay 2 metres away from everybody, I dont wear a mask but I do wear gloves, when i finish work I go home and don't leave the house again until it's time to go to work. I have repeated this ground breaking formula since the beginning and have so far not contracted the virus.

 

Maybe it's just luck I suppose. 

 

I bet you don't live near a 5G mast either.

[The Real Maroonblood]

9 hours ago, Weakened Offender said:

 

It's pretty low compared to the usual half dozen utter beamers on this thread, you included. 

[AlimOzturk]

32 minutes ago, Bull's-eye said:

As someone who is an NHS contractor and has been working in Hospitals throughout this pandemic I thought I'd give you all a bit of advice.

When I'm at work I stay 2 metres away from everybody, I dont wear a mask but I do wear gloves, when i finish work I go home and don't leave the house again until it's time to go to work. I have repeated this ground breaking formula since the beginning and have so far not contracted the virus.

 

Maybe it's just luck I suppose. 

Pretty boring life if you ask me. 

[Ray Gin]

11 hours ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

I agree but we have to differentiate between science , proven science, rather than the modelling  which has proved to be so wildly wrong. Universities and colleges churning out studies based sometimes not even on predictions and forecasts but on what COULD happen.  Governments and policy makers can't make sound decisions based on this form of "science". Thankfully, I think certainly at Westminster they will focus on what we know and have learned from the facts so far and disregard the professional scaremongering 

 

The modelling suggested 250k deaths in the UK with no lockdown. We've had about 50k with a lockdown, so it probably wasn't far wrong.

 

 

[Francis Albert]

56 minutes ago, Bull's-eye said:

As someone who is an NHS contractor and has been working in Hospitals throughout this pandemic I thought I'd give you all a bit of advice.

When I'm at work I stay 2 metres away from everybody, I dont wear a mask but I do wear gloves, when i finish work I go home and don't leave the house again until it's time to go to work. I have repeated this ground breaking formula since the beginning and have so far not contracted the virus.

 

Maybe it's just luck I suppose. 

Surprised at the gloves. I visited an A&E at close to the peak of the pandemic. A woman patient wearing gloves was immediately told to remove them and told that unless she changed them every 15 minutes they were worse than useless as they just acted as a second skin which was much less easy and less practical to wash than her hands. 

[Francis Albert]

5 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

The modelling suggested 250k deaths in the UK with no lockdown. We've had about 50k with a lockdown, so it probably wasn't far wrong.

 

 

In "proper" science rather than computer modelling you could only draw that conclusion if you had a control which did not involve lock down. 

 

There is one but I can't mention it because doing so gets people angry for some reason.

[TheOak88]

8 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

In "proper" science rather than computer modelling you could only draw that conclusion if you had a control which did not involve lock down. 

 

There is one but I can't mention it because doing so gets people angry for some reason.

 

Don't mention the “S” word!! 

[coconut doug]

15 hours ago, Francis Albert said:

China has succeeded economically by abandoning anything that could reasonably be described as socialism. It did in Mao's day, and still does today, grind millions into the dirt and worse.

Cuba never really succeeded as a state but did well in certain areas (health and education notably) despite American policy in South and Central America to suppress anything that looked like socialism. 

Few would consider the Soviet empire and its East European satellites as having "worked" least of all those who lived in them..

Where are the successful socialist models? I'd say Scandinavia but many socialists would say they are not really socialist but to coin a phrase "capitalists with  a human face".

 

Why did every republic vote in favour of the retention of the Soviet Union if what you say is true? 

[Enzo Chiefo]

33 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

The modelling suggested 250k deaths in the UK with no lockdown. We've had about 50k with a lockdown, so it probably wasn't far wrong.

 

 

The modelling predicted up to 500k deaths and assumed an infection rate of 80%. That was never going to happen, lockdown or no lockdown, as proved in Sweden, where the same model predicted 44k deaths by early May if they didn't lockdown. 

We now know that the UK have been over reporting deaths, counting any Covid patients that have died, regardless of the cause.  The only true measure will be the number of excess deaths at the year end. Although that won't pinpoint the exact cause, it will be more accurate than the daily figures.

[Herbert.]

See Russia is the first to produce a vaccine. If only we could move as quick as them. 

[Bull's-eye]

1 hour ago, AlimOzturk said:

Pretty boring life if you ask me. 

 

That's why jkb was invented. 

[Bull's-eye]

56 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Surprised at the gloves. I visited an A&E at close to the peak of the pandemic. A woman patient wearing gloves was immediately told to remove them and told that unless she changed them every 15 minutes they were worse than useless as they just acted as a second skin which was much less easy and less practical to wash than her hands. 

 

I don't believe anything you post. 

[Ray Gin]

21 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

The modelling predicted up to 500k deaths and assumed an infection rate of 80%. That was never going to happen, lockdown or no lockdown, as proved in Sweden, where the same model predicted 44k deaths by early May if they didn't lockdown. 

We now know that the UK have been over reporting deaths, counting any Covid patients that have died, regardless of the cause.  The only true measure will be the number of excess deaths at the year end. Although that won't pinpoint the exact cause, it will be more accurate than the daily figures.

 

Sweden is a different kettle of fish.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53233974

 

Prof Kao said Scotland would have had an R number of about one if it had adopted the Swedish approach. The R number is the number of individuals who, on average, will be infected by a single infected person.

"You have two very different possible outcomes and they hinge on this idea that it depends on the R number being above one or below one," said Prof Kao.

 

"If the R number remains above one, you could have had 40,000 deaths, and if it's below one, 7,000.

 

"It's fair to say that the chance of there being substantially more deaths is very high. There's a 50:50 chance we would have had a much worse epidemic. Is 50:50 worth gambling on? I would suspect not."

 

 

 

 

Edited August 12, 2020 by Ray Gin

[Governor Tarkin]

28 minutes ago, coconut doug said:

 

Why did every republic vote in favour of the retention of the Soviet Union if what you say is true? 

 

The Soviet Union is famous for it's encouragement of fair and impartial voting, right enough.

 

Wrong thread for this shite though.

[Governor Tarkin]

8 minutes ago, Bull's-eye said:

 

That's why jkb was invented. 

 

[coconut doug]

1 minute ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Sweden is a different kettle of fish.

 

 

 

  Other countries can't compete with the Uk. We are worst for death rate and worst for economic performance. It's not easy to be the worst at both of these at the same time. This takes world beating levels of arrogance and supernatural levels of incompetence. Who could have predicted such a thing. Just imagine how much worse it would have been with Corbyn though.

[coconut doug]

7 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

The Soviet Union is famous for it's encouragement of fair and impartial voting, right enough.

 

Wrong thread for this shite though.

 

The context is that over 70% of the voters of the Soviet Union voted to retain their state. The capitalistic, western stooge government dissolved it anyway allowing the oligarchs to plunder USSR resources. Many of them are now ensconced in our metropolis with positions in our parliament and ruling party. They have as much regard for UK citizens as they had for those of the Soviet Union. Our response to Covid has been influenced by them.  

[Ray Gin]

12 minutes ago, coconut doug said:

 

  Other countries can't compete with the Uk. We are worst for death rate and worst for economic performance. It's not easy to be the worst at both of these at the same time. This takes world beating levels of arrogance and supernatural levels of incompetence. Who could have predicted such a thing. Just imagine how much worse it would have been with Corbyn though.

 

I can't imagine it would have been worse under Corbyn at all. BoJo has shown himself to be utterly incompetent on every level. 

[Francis Albert]

51 minutes ago, coconut doug said:

 

Why did every republic vote in favour of the retention of the Soviet Union if what you say is true? 

See Czechoslovakia in 1968 and Hungary in 1956 for example.  

 

[TheOak88]

19 minutes ago, coconut doug said:

 

  Other countries can't compete with the Uk. We are worst for death rate and worst for economic performance. It's not easy to be the worst at both of these at the same time. This takes world beating levels of arrogance and supernatural levels of incompetence. Who could have predicted such a thing. Just imagine how much worse it would have been with Corbyn though.

 

Agreed. Johnson and Sturgeon have a lot to answer for with regard to their handling of this. 

[Governor Tarkin]

20 minutes ago, coconut doug said:

 

The context is that over 70% of the voters of the Soviet Union voted to retain their state. The capitalistic, western stooge government dissolved it anyway allowing the oligarchs to plunder USSR resources. Many of them are now ensconced in our metropolis with positions in our parliament and ruling party. They have as much regard for UK citizens as they had for those of the Soviet Union. Our response to Covid has been influenced by them.  

 

Whilst I don't disagree with much of the bit in bold, I'm yet to be convincet that the Soviet Union was any more a bastion of freedom and equality than what existed elsewhere and what has replaced it. 

 

Lets not digress any further in search of points we can win.

[Enzo Chiefo]

53 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Sweden is a different kettle of fish.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53233974

 

Prof Kao said Scotland would have had an R number of about one if it had adopted the Swedish approach. The R number is the number of individuals who, on average, will be infected by a single infected person.

"You have two very different possible outcomes and they hinge on this idea that it depends on the R number being above one or below one," said Prof Kao.

 

"If the R number remains above one, you could have had 40,000 deaths, and if it's below one, 7,000.

 

"It's fair to say that the chance of there being substantially more deaths is very high. There's a 50:50 chance we would have had a much worse epidemic. Is 50:50 worth gambling on? I would suspect not."

 

 

 

 

Again, you're quoting from one of many individuals looking for their moment of fame. That's the very scientific modelling that I'm pointing out should be treated with a great deal of scepticism.  Hopefully, our decision makers base their policy on facts from now on.

[Francis Albert]

1 hour ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

The modelling predicted up to 500k deaths and assumed an infection rate of 80%. That was never going to happen, lockdown or no lockdown, as proved in Sweden, where the same model predicted 44k deaths by early May if they didn't lockdown. 

We now know that the UK have been over reporting deaths, counting any Covid patients that have died, regardless of the cause.  The only true measure will be the number of excess deaths at the year end. Although that won't pinpoint the exact cause, it will be more accurate than the daily figures.

While excess deaths are a good measure  if other things are stable  currently the number of excess deaths will include many thousands dying of delayed medical treatment for other ailments including many  too afraid to visit their GP (or indeed unable to) and A&E and other hospital departments. And in time the many thousands who will die due  to the worst recession  for nearly a century at least.

Edited August 12, 2020 by Francis Albert

[Enzo Chiefo]

Just now, Francis Albert said:

While excess deaths are a good measure  if other things are stable  currently the number of excess deaths will include many thousands dying of delayed medical treatment for other ailments including many  too afraid to visit their GP (or indeed unable to) and A&E and other hospital departments.

Well, yes, that's right. There will be many like that I think. Not Covid deaths but indirectly linked ,due to the reasons you mention.

[kila]

Glove wearing is a terrible idea.

 

Wash hands regularly. Gloves just act as sponges.

 

[Ray Gin]

29 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Again, you're quoting from one of many individuals looking for their moment of fame. That's the very scientific modelling that I'm pointing out should be treated with a great deal of scepticism.  Hopefully, our decision makers base their policy on facts from now on.

 

I'm quoting from a professor of Epidemiology at Edinburgh Uni. I'd wager he is more clued up than you. 

[Enzo Chiefo]

5 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

I'm quoting from a professor of Epidemiology at Edinburgh Uni. I'd wager he is more clued up than you. 

Who probably knows as much about what will happen with Coronavirus as the rest of us. Plenty other "experts" would conpletely disagree with him. Let's stick with the facts , not what could happen or what might have happened had we not...👍

[Ray Gin]

1 minute ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Who probably knows as much about what will happen with Coronavirus as the rest of us. Plenty other "experts" would conpletely disagree with him. Let's stick with the facts , not what could happen or what might have happened had we not...👍

 

Do you think that you are better placed to give your opinion than a Professor of Epidemiology? 

[TheOak88]

Cases have risen massively in France. They are averaging about 1,600 new cases per day just now. 

 

Deaths do not seem to be increasing tho.

[John Gentleman]

14 hours ago, AlimOzturk said:

I mean, Russia is hardly some sort of backwater country. If they say they have a vaccine we should be taking that seriously, no? 
 

Thought this would be all over the news. Seems something positive like this doesn’t appeal to the story selling negatives that they want. 

If the Russians pull it off they'll be the first in humanity's history to develop an effective vaccine for a coronavirus. And all without undertaking Phase 2 & 3 trials.

Just like they were 'first' with the Concord[ski]. That worked out well, didn't it?

[The Real Maroonblood]

40 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

I'm quoting from a professor of Epidemiology at Edinburgh Uni. I'd wager he is more clued up than you.