Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[vegas-voss]

2 hours ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

No news was good news, and she's heard nothing, so looking good, so far, others though haven't been so fortunate.

Good to hear but as you say not so good for others.Unfortunately its going to become a recurring theme in the months ahead.

[Weakened Offender]

11 minutes ago, Lone Striker said:

Back on topic ... did anyone else see the BBC documentary "Surviving the Virus" tonight about the real front line of ICU staff treating COVID patients ?    It was a stark picture of incredibly ill people, half of whom end up dying. Even the survivors developed lots of unexpected health issues around lungs, kidneys, brain, heart (some suffer strokes) - all of which are still not understood by medical researchers.     So, when most of us just look at the headline detected infections stats (and fatalities) which until recently had fallen to relatively low levels, the range of disabling repercussions which folk can suffer from for many years afterwards is quite worrying.

 

Dafties won't care though - they're immune ..... apparently,

 

 

 

The shamdemics, flu-comparers and all-round cretinous plebs on this thread will find a meme to disprove those findings. 

[Taffin]

18 minutes ago, Lone Striker said:

Back on topic ... did anyone else see the BBC documentary "Surviving the Virus" tonight about the real front line of ICU staff treating COVID patients ?    It was a stark picture of incredibly ill people, half of whom end up dying. Even the survivors developed lots of unexpected health issues around lungs, kidneys, brain, heart (some suffer strokes) - all of which are still not understood by medical researchers.     So, when most of us just look at the headline detected infections stats (and fatalities) which until recently had fallen to relatively low levels, the range of disabling repercussions which folk can suffer from for many years afterwards is quite worrying.

 

Dafties won't care though - they're immune ..... apparently,

 

 

 

 

Pretty frightening stuff. Fortunately >40% of those who catch it seem to be completely asymptomatic, not that it makes it any less awful for those who do suffer.

[The Mighty Thor]

7 hours ago, Lone Striker said:

Back on topic ... did anyone else see the BBC documentary "Surviving the Virus" tonight about the real front line of ICU staff treating COVID patients ?    It was a stark picture of incredibly ill people, half of whom end up dying. Even the survivors developed lots of unexpected health issues around lungs, kidneys, brain, heart (some suffer strokes) - all of which are still not understood by medical researchers.     So, when most of us just look at the headline detected infections stats (and fatalities) which until recently had fallen to relatively low levels, the range of disabling repercussions which folk can suffer from for many years afterwards is quite worrying.

 

Dafties won't care though - they're immune ..... apparently,

 

 

Drama queens and pant wetter apparently. 

[The Mighty Thor]

9 hours ago, Governor Tarkin said:

We need more bullying behaviour imo.

 

 

This.

 

Kickback has a fine long standing tradition of calling out utter melts with contradictory nonsense and gobshites.

 

Apart from the champion boxing, bollywood shagging philanthropist. He passed everybody by.  

[Seymour M Hersh]

From todays Daily Mail.

 

Britain's gone from lockdown to la-la-land! Doctor JOHN LEE says that as the devastation to our health and wealth becomes clear, our leaders are still in a fantasy world, in thrall to dodgy science
By DR JOHN LEE FOR THE DAILY MAIL
PUBLISHED: 23:17, 5 August 2020 | UPDATED: 23:26, 5 August 2020

     e-mail  


Grounded in dubious science and cowardly politics, the grievous wounds we have inflicted upon ourselves with the Covid-19 lockdown are becoming more evident every day.

Britain's economic outlook is dire and job losses are mounting daily. It is clear many of those currently bankrolled by the Government's furlough scheme to lie on the beach, lawn or sofa will soon discover that they have no employment to return to in the autumn.

Meanwhile, disturbing figures reported in the Mail yesterday, reveal how alarm is spreading among doctors and patients at the continued mothballing of sectors of the NHS.

The grievous wounds we have inflicted upon ourselves with the Covid-19 lockdown are becoming more evident every day 
 

Measures designed to help the health service withstand coronavirus cases served their purpose. But now tens of thousands of people with cancer, heart disease and diabetes find themselves consigned to ever-longer waiting lists, left undiagnosed and untreated.

The damning survey by the Royal College of Physicians showed more than two-thirds of senior doctors and consultants were experiencing delays accessing outpatients' diagnostic tests and procedures.

Damning

Typically some 30,000 cases of cancer are diagnosed every month; since lockdown it has been roughly half that. And the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics reveal cancer deaths were almost four times higher than they should have been in June.

What this means in reality is that tens of thousands more people will die of cancer due to counter-measures for a virus that, according to the latest figures, is killing less than a tenth of the number it was at its peak and overall has resulted in a similar number of fatalities to those we'd expect during a bad influenza season.

At the same time, waiting times nationwide for routine and even acute surgery are lengthening alarmingly.

In London alone, those waiting for procedures for more than a year have shot up to almost 20,000 from just 1,154 across England 18 months ago.

We may never know precisely how many people in Britain have died and will die of Covid-19, but we know the death rate globally is very low, between 0.1 and 0.5 per cent of those infected, according to research group Swiss Policy Research.

We know that the majority of deaths occurred in people with pre-existing conditions and we also know that in England, the median age of those who died from Covid is above 80.

Every death is sad but should the country have been brought to such an abrupt halt — with catastrophic consequences?

Typically some 30,000 cases of cancer are diagnosed every month; since lockdown it has been roughly half that (Stock image)    +3
Typically some 30,000 cases of cancer are diagnosed every month; since lockdown it has been roughly half that (Stock image) 

In the eyes of many in the political and scientific establishment it was necessary. But as I warned on these pages back in May, the Government's eagerness to lockdown amounts to nothing more than the medicine of the madhouse.

There were no demands for a national shutdown in Britain in the winter of 2014/15, when more than 28,000 people died from seasonal flu; or during the Hong Kong flu epidemic of 1968, when a million people died worldwide, some 80,000 of them in Britain.

To put that in perspective, when Boris Johnson saw fit to implement total lockdown on March 23 there had been just 335 Covid deaths in Britain.

Of course, we are much more risk-averse today than in the Sixties, far less willing to accept death as our ultimate destiny or able to have a grown-up public discussion about it.

Part of the story has also been bad luck, with Boris Johnson contracting the virus and falling seriously ill in April. Clearly he was scarred by his ordeal, and since then, normal politics has been in abeyance, as a small group of Cabinet ministers absolve themselves of responsibility by deferring to what they call 'The Science'.

Yet the advice emerging from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) committee has been markedly unimpressive.

The problem with epidemiologists is that they are essentially modellers of the progress of a disease, so they are only as good as the assumptions and data they put in their models.

Parallels can be drawn with the models used by the banks before the 2008 financial crisis. Their creators thought they had modelled every eventuality. But their inputs were faulty, so they reached entirely the wrong conclusions about the solidity of global banks.

Apocalyptic

The same fate befell Professor Neil Ferguson, whose record for apocalyptic forecasting didn't stop the Government taking unprecedented action based on his data.

Yesterday, I listened in disbelief as Ferguson, a member of SAGE until he was forced to resign for allowing a girlfriend to visit him in defiance of a lockdown he helped devise, appeared on the BBC Radio 4 Today programme to warn that reopening schools next month risked increasing the infection rate.

 

His shamelessness is astounding. Here we had a scientist who has been proven wrong on countless predictions, pronouncing on the futures of millions of schoolchildren who have been out of school for six months, and whose chances of succumbing to the virus are minuscule. 

He isn't alone in his doom-mongering. The day before his appearance, Dr David Nabarro, the World Health Organisation's special envoy on Covid-19, told the same programme we will see 'very bad surges' if more action isn't taken.

Throughout this crisis, watching the Prime Minister and his committee of experts puts me in mind of the brilliant Sky series Chernobyl, about Ukraine's nuclear disaster.

In it, we see ultimate rule by committee, the failure of political accountability and all the hallmarks of totalitarianism that have characterised our own handling of Covid-19.

Farcical

We like to believe we are better than the Soviet Union. But time and again we have seen the same totalitarian impulse in the Government's instructions, from Stay Home, Save Lives, Protect the NHS, to social distancing and wearing face masks — all in the absence of reliable evidence these measures do any real good and plenty to suggest harm.

In this crazy world, citizens who thought they lived in a sane, civilised country are treated like imbeciles, unable to make everyday risk assessments for themselves.

As a result, they are bound by farcical rules, exemplified by those governing the re-implemented Northern lockdown, where it is permitted to meet a lover with whom you do not co-habit in a hotel, but not in either of your private homes.

Meanwhile, no one dares to admit the lockdown itself may be completely misguided, because then everything that has been done in its name will be seen to have been pointless.

For months it has been clear that our own government and administrations internationally are in a fantasy world, determined to contain a virus which cannot be stamped out.

Yet rather than face the uncomfortable truth we may have to learn to live with Covid-19, politicians are intent on pursuing policies which have devastating real-world effects.

No one can predict the precise course of this pandemic, but we can be certain many thousands will die who would not have but for the draconian Covid counter-measures.

And even for those who do survive, many of the experiences that make life worthwhile may become things of the past — unless we wake up to the fact that lockdown could have a higher cost than Covid itself. 

Dr John Lee is a former Professor of Pathology at Hull York Medical School and a recently retired NHS consultant

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8597815/Britains-gone-lockdown-la-la-land-says-DR-JOHN-LEE.html

 

 

[ri Alban]

17 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

BoE has kept interest rates at 0.1% and avoided going into negative rates. Looks like recovery period for this will be extended with realisation it’s won’t be v shape recession. 
 

QE was not be increased either, I think. 
 

 

I think they said this morning, that they don't think the dip will be as severe, but the recovery will be a little longer. 

 

Savings will be a bit shite if it goes negative. 

 

 

Also, there's rumbles that the government may ask companies to pay back furlough if and when they start making profits. That's a bit questionable, I don't remember that being part of the deal. 

[jack D and coke]

1 hour ago, ri Alban said:

I think they said this morning, that they don't think the dip will be as severe, but the recovery will be a little longer. 

 

Savings will be a bit shite if it goes negative. 

 

 

Also, there's rumbles that the government may ask companies to pay back furlough if and when they start making profits. That's a bit questionable, I don't remember that being part of the deal. 

My brothers partner works with these bounce bank loans. Been getting abused to the absolute max. I’d say these furlough grants were too. People take the absolute piss. I know of a few. 

[GinRummy]

32 minutes ago, jack D and coke said:

My brothers partner works with these bounce bank loans. Been getting abused to the absolute max. I’d say these furlough grants were too. People take the absolute piss. I know of a few. 

After the ridiculous hoops you had to jump through for the original CBILs loans they had to make it easier. They swung completely the other way with the Bounce Back Loans. Absolute piece of piss to apply and get it. Totally open to abuse. 

[vegas-voss]

 

[Ray Gin]

Not looking great in France and Spain. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53672991

 

 

"France has recorded its highest number of daily coronavirus infections in more than two months.

Figures released on Wednesday showed 1,695 new cases within 24 hours."

 

"On Wednesday, Spain reported its highest number of new cases since it began easing lockdown restrictions in June, with 1,772 infections."

 

[ri Alban]

2 hours ago, Lord BJ said:

Still haven’t managed to read it all but yeah your correct. Drops in gdp and unemployment forecasts have been improvement still horrific. 
 

The curve moves from a v to a tick, which is reflective of the fact the economy can’t be turned back on with immediate effect. Essentially they have flattened the invert curve😂 

 

Unfortunately, still worst recession in 100 years. 

 

Negative interest rates would be really shite imo I appreciate the principal to get money in the economy but it does nothing to solve the fundamental issue of creating demand. Whilst, we’d likely see sell off of the pound and all that comes with that.

 

If you read the small print on grants etc to business, pretty sure those mechanisms where there. Know a couple of people who were very selective about what they took for that reason.

 

This bailout won’t come for free and they will be looking to get tax takes up. I guess they will look to recover that from some business

Cheers 👍 I didn't know about the payback terms. 

[ri Alban]

1 hour ago, jack D and coke said:

My brothers partner works with these bounce bank loans. Been getting abused to the absolute max. I’d say these furlough grants were too. People take the absolute piss. I know of a few. 

Your not wrong. I've heard a few stories about folk being furlough and made to work on 80%. Hopefully these people get their collars felt. 👍

 

[ri Alban]

1 hour ago, jack D and coke said:

My brothers partner works with these bounce bank loans. Been getting abused to the absolute max. I’d say these furlough grants were too. People take the absolute piss. I know of a few. 

Your not wrong. I've heard a few stories about folk being furlough and made to work on 80%. Hopefully these people get their collars felt. 👍

 

[Victorian]

20 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

Not looking great in France and Spain. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53672991

 

 

"France has recorded its highest number of daily coronavirus infections in more than two months.

Figures released on Wednesday showed 1,695 new cases within 24 hours."

 

"On Wednesday, Spain reported its highest number of new cases since it began easing lockdown restrictions in June, with 1,772 infections."

 

 

Aye but apparently we shouldn't really bother trying to suppress outbreaks until they translate through to deaths.   🤡

 

 

[Victorian]

4 minutes ago, jonesy said:

 

It’s like the tag team of doom!

 

Cases, admissions and yes, deaths, are all likely to rise when people have more contact again. Removing the risk, removing contact and keeping people locked up in their own homes is a great way of suppressing virus transmission but a terrible way of seeing out your existence (as, of course, is dying from Covid).
 

However, unless we give up on careers, education and the idea that everyday life can and will have an element of risk, what is the alternative?

 

Don't think anyone is suggesting such a thing but plough on.

 

Stamping down on outbreaks with targetted lockdown measures and contact tracing systems.    That's all countries can do.   Like the SG measures introduced in the Aberdeen area... that were denounced so readily.

 

 

[Victorian]

8 minutes ago, jonesy said:

I’ve already had to give up one job because I wasn’t allowed to take my kids to my mum's to babysit. Should an Aberdeen-style lockdown come to Edinburgh, the same would happen again. 
 

The lack of conviction around the opening up and the consistent rhetoric of ‘we won’t hesitate to keep you all at home again’ from government has created a climate where those of us who cannot work from home all the time are just waiting to lose our jobs.
 

Feeding my kids and paying bills is more important than wielding fear-inducing stats about who has a virus. Like Taffin said yesterday, this approach is not sustainable, and like many are now saying, is doing much more damage to our society in both the short and long term. 
 

I applaud your faith in the authorities’ measures. I don’t share it at all. 

 

There's no easy route.    It's becoming increasingly clear that this virus is not going away and not becoming less transmissible.    If it's allowed to spread unchecked again then the NHS would inevitably be overwhelmed.

 

What is the alternative to trying to keep a lid on outbreaks by reducing chains of transmission?    Ask everyone to just take their chances and accept some horrendous numbers?

[Ray Gin]

33 minutes ago, jonesy said:

 

It’s like the tag team of doom!

 

Cases, admissions and yes, deaths, are all likely to rise when people have more contact again. Removing the risk, removing contact and keeping people locked up in their own homes is a great way of suppressing virus transmission but a terrible way of seeing out your existence (as, of course, is dying from Covid).
 

However, unless we give up on careers, education and the idea that everyday life can and will have an element of risk, what is the alternative?

 

Believe it or not, we're not responsible for those rising cases. Just posting the latest news.

 

 

"Those were the headlines. God, I wish they weren't."

[TheOak88]

21 hours ago, jack D and coke said:

Mate I’m almost amused at people putting time scales on this. How many businesses can cope with another 6-12 months of this? 
Im genuinely concerned about the state of the country. This isn’t going away in 6 or 12 months. 
A vaccine is almost pointless imo for the amount of people who will refuse it. 
I had a guy tell me he’d watched something the other night that had brought it all home to him apparently. He’s normally not one for these posts so I asked what it was thinking maybe I’d be surprised. I wasn’t surprised at all. It was all the same garbage I’ve read a hundred times already. Minutes in and Bill Gates etc were getting mentioned as well as things like mercury in vaccines and fluoride in the water supply. Soros and the Rockefellers etc and it just kept coming. Millions of people are down these rabbit holes that aren’t coming back out of them. 
The world is messed because of social media. Absolutely and utterly messed. 

 

I don’t know how many businesses will be able to survive the next 6-12 months. The reality is some businesses will be totally fine, some will take a bit of a hit but be alright and some industries will see a lot go under; how many businesses will fit into each of those categories is totally up for debate really. None of us really know. 

 

On the anti-Vaxxer point. Same as all social media really, the minority that shouts the loudest get the most attention. 

 

I would happily bet 95%+ of the population who require the vaccine would take it when it comes to the crunch. Assuming it has been properly tested etc. 

[Victorian]

2 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Overwhelmed? Folk I know that work in hospitals have been wondering where the patients are! The extra hospitals they built were quickly mothballed. 
 

There’s a morbid, macabre fascination among a lot of people in relation to case numbers and deaths that ignores the more complex, real world picture of how focusing attention and resources on one challenge to life is causing massive harm to many others. 

 

Hospitals were near to breaking point at the peak of the initial outbreak.   More so in England than in Scotland.   Please don't try to re-write history in that regard.   Obviously it's been much, much quieter in recent weeks because cases were suppressed to very low numbers.    Nightingale hospitals were a contingency and rightly created.   At that time,  nobody knew what the scale of demand was going to be.

 

The country can either attempt to suppress outbreaks via the measures we've seen,  or we can just bury our heads in the sand and do nothing.   All of the interacting issues of health,  education and the economy are complex as you say,   but nobody is ignoring them.   Far from it.

 

So what's your alternative to the policy of attempting to keep a lid on outbreaks?    Anyone can be a contrarian but the more credible thing is to offer an alternative way.

[JudyJudyJudy]

1 hour ago, jonesy said:

 

It’s like the tag team of doom!

 

Cases, admissions and yes, deaths, are all likely to rise when people have more contact again. Removing the risk, removing contact and keeping people locked up in their own homes is a great way of suppressing virus transmission but a terrible way of seeing out your existence (as, of course, is dying from Covid).
 

However, unless we give up on careers, education and the idea that everyday life can and will have an element of risk, what is the alternative?

Jonesy you might find this great article of interest . Others will more than likely trash it . https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/07/31/opinion/dangerous-pursuit-safety/?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true

[Ray Gin]

1 minute ago, JamesM48 said:

Jonesy you might find this great article of interest . Others will more than likely trash it . https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/07/31/opinion/dangerous-pursuit-safety/?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true

 

Post some opinion pieces from virologists or epidemiologists rather than a "Professor of Classics" and they won't be trashed so easily.

 

[JudyJudyJudy]

17 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Post some opinion pieces from virologists or epidemiologists rather than a "Professor of Classics" and they won't be trashed so easily.

 

I think many of these will agree with him 👍

[Ray Gin]

15 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

I think many of these will agree with him 👍

Prove it

[AlimOzturk]

1 bar and a small spike in cases and all of a sudden a City is is shutting down causing more untold damage to the local economy. Crazy.

[Victorian]

With this new tranche of infections happening in areas of the UK and throughout Europe,   it will be interesting to see how these numbers translate into outcomes in terms of severity and mortality.    There are a number of more recent medical interventions that will hopefully prove their effectiveness.    We'll hopefully see a much improved picture regarding outcomes.

 

 

[Don Dan]

2 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

1 bar and a small spike in cases and all of a sudden a City is is shutting down causing more untold damage to the local economy. Crazy.

 Numbers growing and spreading rapidly. Mostly due to drinkers going on a pub crawl in Aberdeen. 
 

 

39 new cases in NHS Grampian region

 

17 new cases in Greater Glasgow and Clyde

67 new infections in Scotland

There have been 67 new infections confirmed in Scotland in the last 24 hours, but no new deaths.

Ms Sturgeon said 270 people were in Scottish hospitals being treated for the virus, and four were in ICU.

[Victorian]

4 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

1 bar and a small spike in cases and all of a sudden a City is is shutting down causing more untold damage to the local economy. Crazy.

 

20 bars and a growing number of linked cases.   Shut down for an initial 7 days before being reviewed.    Contact tracing doing a heroic job of trying to get on top of it.

 

Not crazy.

 

Your alternative idea is?

[JudyJudyJudy]

44 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Post some opinion pieces from virologists or epidemiologists rather than a "Professor of Classics" and they won't be trashed so easily.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000lk7m/newsnight-05082020

[milky_26]

5 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

20 bars and a growing number of linked cases.   Shut down for an initial 7 days before being reviewed.    Contact tracing doing a heroic job of trying to get on top of it.

 

Not crazy.

 

Your alternative idea is?

re that bit about contact tracing, i'm sure i saw a report that some of the bars only found out from customers rather than contact tracers. if so that is very poor

[AlimOzturk]

6 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

20 bars and a growing number of linked cases.   Shut down for an initial 7 days before being reviewed.    Contact tracing doing a heroic job of trying to get on top of it.

 

Not crazy.

 

Your alternative idea is?

Shut the affected bars down and use contact and trace systems that have been put in place.  Otherwise wtf is the point in having contact trace if they just lockdown a city due to a spike in cases? putting a whole city in lockdown due to it is bonkers. 
 

If contact tracing didn’t work and numbers continue to rise then it maybe justified. But that would only contact tracing systems have failed
 

 

Edited August 6, 2020 by AlimOzturk

[Enzo Chiefo]

56 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Overwhelmed? Folk I know that work in hospitals have been wondering where the patients are! The extra hospitals they built were quickly mothballed. 
 

There’s a morbid, macabre fascination among a lot of people in relation to case numbers and deaths that ignores the more complex, real world picture of how focusing attention and resources on one challenge to life is causing massive harm to many 

The one thing we should have learned since March is that apocalyptic predictions from modellers should be ignored. Even at it's worst , hospitals were nowhere near being "overwhelmed" and that was despite the virus probably having been in circulation since the end of last year. Remember Jean Jeanie Freeman scaremongering about 80% of Scotland being infected and half of those being off sick from work. Arrant nonsense and most of us saw through it back then.  Yes  we should treat it with caution but not to the detriment of the thousands of people with other illnesses that are every bit as entitled to treatment , to the economy, to childrens education, nor to people wanting to live rather than exist. 30 or 40 years ago, no way would lockdown have been suggested, and life would have continued more or less as normal. Today's risk averse society along with rolling news and social media have given a platform to myriad scientists and politicians who want to impose their view on how we should live our lives.

[Don Dan]

3 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

Shut the affected bars down and use contact and trace systems that have been put in place.  Otherwise wtf is the point in having contact trace if they just lockdown a city due to a spike in cases? putting a whole city in lockdown due to it is bonkers. 
 

If contact tracing didn’t work and numbers continue to rise then it maybe justified. But that would only contact tracing systems have failed
 

 

 

The problem is people from the bars went home, work and mixed with others out in the community. You need to stop the infection chain and that can only be done by a wider lockdown.

[AlimOzturk]

Just now, Boy Daniel said:

 

The problem is people from the bars went home, work and mixed with others out in the community. You need to stop the infection chain and that can only be done by a wider lockdown.

See no point in contact tracing then. The whole point of it was to help reopen society. However it seems that it will only go as far to identify folk that have had it then cause a panic and more shut downs.

[Victorian]

3 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

Shut the affected bars down and use contact and trace systems that have been put in place.  Otherwise wtf is the point in having contact trace if they just lockdown a city due to a spike in cases? putting a whole city in lockdown due to it is bonkers. 
 

If contact tracing didn’t work and numbers continue to rise then it maybe justified. But that would only contact tracing systems have failed
 

 

 

Nope.

 

The cluster has already occured and is growing.   It needs to be put into full reverse by maximising the number of chains of infections you remove.    Merely shutting down the initial locations is bolting the stable door after the horse has done a nash.     

 

The contact tracing task is complex and exhaustive enough as it is.    It's absolutely vital to minimise the workload in battling a cluster with contact tracing.    The wider lockdown is fully justified.

[Pasquale for King]

10 minutes ago, milky_26 said:

re that bit about contact tracing, i'm sure i saw a report that some of the bars only found out from customers rather than contact tracers. if so that is very poor

Unfortunately giving your information is voluntary and if people refuse or don’t answer when contacted the system falls down. As long as people find out ASAP that’s all that really matters.

[Ray Gin]

8 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

The one thing we should have learned since March is that apocalyptic predictions from modellers should be ignored. Even at it's worst , hospitals were nowhere near being "overwhelmed" and that was despite the virus probably having been in circulation since the end of last year. Remember Jean Jeanie Freeman scaremongering about 80% of Scotland being infected and half of those being off sick from work. Arrant nonsense and most of us saw through it back then.

 

Can you think of anything that might have happened to stop this from happening?

 

Maybe the lockdown you keep moaning about?

 

 

[Ray Gin]

17 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000lk7m/newsnight-05082020

 

I don't have time to watch a 42 minute video. What bit are you referring to?

[AlimOzturk]

4 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

Nope.

 

The cluster has already occured and is growing.   It needs to be put into full reverse by maximising the number of chains of infections you remove.    Merely shutting down the initial locations is bolting the stable door after the horse has done a nash.     

 

The contact tracing task is complex and exhaustive enough as it is.    It's absolutely vital to minimise the  workload in battling a cluster with contact tracing.    The wider lockdown is fully justified.

Justified or not, any hope of a return normality is ****ed. How can businesses plan ahead if at any moment a spike in cases could cause them to completely shut down? 

Edited August 6, 2020 by AlimOzturk

[Victorian]

Contact tracing is never fully effective.   It's purpose is to capture as many contacts and break as many chains as can be achieved.    It's not always about identifying every early contact and getting every person to isolate.    It's a fire fighting exercise to steadily suppress a growth of onward transmission.

[TheOak88]

22 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

 

 

39 new cases in NHS Grampian region

 

17 new cases in Greater Glasgow and Clyde

67 new infections in Scotland

There have been 67 new infections confirmed in Scotland in the last 24 hours, but no new deaths.

Ms Sturgeon said 270 people were in Scottish hospitals being treated for the virus, and four were in ICU.

 

Is that today’s numbers, mate? Or was that yesterday?

[Victorian]

Just now, AlimOzturk said:

Justified or not, then way of life is ****ed if this is a sign of things to come. 

 

Yes and no.

 

It's much,  much better than a full lockdown.   Hopefully it prevents the necessity to have one.

 

 

[Victorian]

6 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

Justified or not, any hope of a return normality is ****ed. How can businesses plan ahead if at any moment a spike in cases could cause them to completely shut down? 

 

Yeah,  not easy for them.   But at least this type of localised lockdown will tend to be short term.    Better than a full lockdown though.   Better than an unchecked infection resulting in much reduced public confidence to visit these businesses.

 

It's a situation with zero perfect solutions.    

[Don Dan]

9 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

See no point in contact tracing then. The whole point of it was to help reopen society. However it seems that it will only go as far to identify folk that have had it then cause a panic and more shut downs.

You need both. Tracing identifies those infected so they know they are infected and can isolated and be treated if necessary. Lockdown helps stop the spread of infections till it’s under control. The sooner you hit the outbreak on the head the better and quicker we can continue with the new normal. 
The biggest culprits are those that wilfully or drunkenly choose to ignore the advice. A few scoops and common sense goes out the window. We seen that on the Riordan thread where everyone in his boozer were sitting shoulder to shoulder. 

[Don Dan]

8 minutes ago, TheOak88 said:

 

Is that today’s numbers, mate? Or was that yesterday?

Todays

 

https://www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus-scotland-live-updates-aberdeen-enters-first-day-local-lockdown-2934477

Edited August 6, 2020 by Boy Daniel
https://www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus-scotland-live-updates-aberdeen-enters-first-day-local-lockdown-2934477

[frankblack]

I do wonder with contact tracing how many people are giving false details when they have to register to enter a business?

 

Must be a fair few Mickey and Minnie Mouses in the registrars.

[JudyJudyJudy]

5 minutes ago, jonesy said:

 

Obviously I liked the article because it chimes with my take on things, but I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss a historian/classicist who has spent their career looking at long term perspectives on events. 
 

 

Exactly It’s more a sociological analysis of the current situation with figures to back up his arguments 

[The Internet]

 

Genuinely can't get my head round 60k new cases a day after FIVE months  how have they managed that.

[milky_26]

5 minutes ago, Mauricio Pinilla said:

 

Genuinely can't get my head round 60k new cases a day after FIVE months  how have they managed that.

i think your second bullet point might suggest how they got to under 60,000 new cases per day. following the trump methodology of them only having such a high number of cases because they are doing lots of tests

[Dagger Is Back]

2 minutes ago, milky_26 said:

i think your second bullet point might suggest how they got to under 60,000 new cases per day. following the trump methodology of them only having such a high number of cases because they are doing lots of tests

Exactly what I thought when I read it.