Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[Ray Gin]

7 minutes ago, Adam_the_legend said:

Every time one of his ridiculous predictions is shown to be complete nonsense I think, that’s it, the media will stop listening to this joker but no, he’s always a go to “expert”. 5000 deaths a day from omicron with “no evidence” it’s milder. Aye, ok mate 🙄

 

Did he say that's what will happen or that it could happen in a worst case scenario?

(I didn't see it)

[Footballfirst]

Ireland implementing an 8pm curfew in restaurants and bars.

 

Venues at 50% of capacity.

Edited December 17, 2021 by Footballfirst

[Dennis Denuto]

1 minute ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Did he say that's what will happen or that it could happen in a worst case scenario?

(I didn't see it)

It’s all over the news paper sites. They dismissed that it might be less severe than Delta but included that vaccines aren’t going to work. Best case was 3000 deaths a day, previously 1800 was the highest. 
 

 

[DB-14]

1 minute ago, Footballfirst said:

Ireland implementing an 8pm curfew in restaurants and bars.

 

Venues at 50% of capacity.

Farcical. 

[Malinga the Swinga]

11 minutes ago, Adam_the_legend said:

Every time one of his ridiculous predictions is shown to be complete nonsense I think, that’s it, the media will stop listening to this joker but no, he’s always a go to “expert”. 5000 deaths a day from omicron with “no evidence” it’s milder. Aye, ok mate 🙄

Well, if you ignore the evidence from South Africa and ignore what Danes are saying and basically put all your trust into an algorithm that has been shown up as absolutely useless in the past, then Ferguson is your man.

[Taffin]

If Ferguson is saying it's bad at least that now some solid evidence that it definitely isn't as bad. 

 

Things are looking up.

[Dennis Denuto]

4 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Well, if you ignore the evidence from South Africa and ignore what Danes are saying and basically put all your trust into an algorithm that has been shown up as absolutely useless in the past, then Ferguson is your man.

TBF he will be correct with the parameters he put into the model. 
 

Let’s just hope it’s total baws. 

[DB-14]

Leitch on the news again saying cases are going to double every day. An absolutely ludicrous claim.

[Dennis Denuto]

1 minute ago, Taffin said:

If Ferguson is saying it's bad at least that now some solid evidence that it definitely isn't as bad. 

 

Things are looking up.

You’re a cynical man Taff. 
 

He’s not been as wrong as you make out, he has over hyped things before though and hopefully he isn’t the one that bounces into lockdown again. 

[Malinga the Swinga]

Just now, Dennis Denuto said:

TBF he will be correct with the parameters he put into the model. 
 

Let’s just hope it’s total baws. 

The same accuracy as his Sara predictions, his Bird flu predictions and even his predictions from earlier in this shitstorm.

All wildly inaccurate, all over estimated by miles yet no apology, just smug look and carry on milking as much money as he can grab. There are other examples of his predictions as well, think they are quoted on this thread. The man's an imposter.

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

21 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Did he say that's what will happen or that it could happen in a worst case scenario?

(I didn't see it)

Private Eye have done some good hits on him. His MO is to predict horrific outcomes and recommend massive restrictions at the same time. The horrific outcomes never come to pass but he sidesteps those questions by claiming they never came to pass because of the massive restrictions he recommended - thus meaning his predictions are never actually put to the test. Plenty of evidence to suggest he’s a total chancer.

[theshed]

20 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Ireland implementing an 8pm curfew in restaurants and bars.

 

Venues at 50% of capacity.

Mental….I don’t understand how it’s ok to sit down for a meal at say 7pm but it’s not safe to have a meal at 830pm

[Gizmo]

Omicron trends from Travelling Tabby. 

Feel free to understand the data or, alternatively, extrapolate it along the usual biases that have been on display on this thread for the last two years. The data never lies. 

 

[Malinga the Swinga]

20 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Ireland implementing an 8pm curfew in restaurants and bars.

 

Venues at 50% of capacity.

Cause Covid only strikes after 8pm and only in bars and restaurants. 

Leave there churches open though, got to have somewhere for their priests to take the kids for a party.

[Malinga the Swinga]

3 minutes ago, theshed said:

Mental….I don’t understand how it’s ok to sit down for a meal at say 7pm but it’s not safe to have a meal at 830pm

Of course you don't understand, no-one does. It's utter bullshit made up on the hoof by people who are so out of their depth it would be funny if it wasn't so scary.

Edited December 17, 2021 by Malinga the Swinga

[Dennis Denuto]

1 minute ago, theshed said:

Mental….I don’t understand how it’s ok to sit down for a meal at say 7pm but it’s not safe to have a meal at 830pm

It’s about reducing the number of contacts, the specific time doesn’t matter. 
 

We are two years in why do people still not understand that. Agree with restrictions or don’t but at least understand why they think they need them and what they are trying to achieve, then make up your mind. 
 

I don’t think we need restrictions right now. 

[Don Dan]

56 minutes ago, Dusk_Till_Dawn said:

That Neil Ferguson making outlandish predictions again 

 
Indeed. Stats today.  20,713 new cases and 35 new deaths in South Africa 

[BigAlim]

Seems like a relevant thread to post this in....

 

My works christmas night out is tonight and the rules are as follows:

 

Masks must be worn unless you are on the dancefloor.

 

People who cannot show proof of vaccination will be asked to leave at midnight (the event finishes at 1am).

 

So basically I could be dancing with people who are unvaccinated before midnight without masks. 

 

Is this event worth attending or should I throw a sicky?

[Taffin]

18 minutes ago, Dennis Denuto said:

You’re a cynical man Taff. 
 

He’s not been as wrong as you make out, he has over hyped things before though and hopefully he isn’t the one that bounces into lockdown again. 

 

😂😂 I am pretty cynical. 

 

He lost me with the certainty of 100k cases for England a few months back. 

 

'chat ****, get banged' as Jamie Vardy might say.

[theshed]

2 minutes ago, BigAlim said:

Seems like a relevant thread to post this in....

 

My works christmas night out is tonight and the rules are as follows:

 

Masks must be worn unless you are on the dancefloor.

 

People who cannot show proof of vaccination will be asked to leave at midnight (the event finishes at 1am).

 

So basically I could be dancing with people who are unvaccinated before midnight without masks. 

 

Is this event worth attending or should I throw a sicky?

You could be dancing with someone who’s had all their vaccines and still might be positive and pass it on to you   
 

Go and enjoy yourself. After a few drinks you probably won’t care 

[Dennis Denuto]

1 minute ago, Taffin said:

 

😂😂 I am pretty cynical. 

 

He lost me with the certainty of 100k cases for England a few months back. 

 

'chat ****, get banged' as Jamie Vardy might say.

Which is one that he can’t dodge as it didn’t happen and he can’t hide behind anything to say why. 
 

The worry when challenged is as why he should be trusted now is he can always point out it’s better to back him and be wrong than ignore him and he’s correct. 
 

Politicians need to hold their nerve. 

[BigAlim]

2 minutes ago, theshed said:

You could be dancing with someone who’s had all their vaccines and still might be positive and pass it on to you   
 

Go and enjoy yourself. After a few drinks you probably won’t care 

 

Thanks mate, I needed that

[Victorian]

I don't blame people for being very dubious about Ferguson's latest predictions.  He has what might be described as an imperfect record so far.  But some of the predictions he made on the basis of no mitigation being ridiculed after the fact of mitigations being there isn't necessarily very astute.  How do you guage the accuracy of a scenario that was prevented by a critical input being removed from the equation?  Not by citing the end result of a different set of inputs.  Ridiculous.

 

Ferguson's latest appears to take no real account of a couple of important unknown factors.  It's dubious science if some of the inputs are blind.  That does not preclude the possibility of it being bad though.  

[Malinga the Swinga]

13 minutes ago, Dennis Denuto said:

Which is one that he can’t dodge as it didn’t happen and he can’t hide behind anything to say why. 
 

The worry when challenged is as why he should be trusted now is he can always point out it’s better to back him and be wrong than ignore him and he’s correct. 
 

Politicians need to hold their nerve. 

For a politician to hold their nerve, would take backbone, a willingness to put themselves out on a limb and a willingness to take responsibility if things go wrong.

There isn't one of the current breed of politicians, of any political persuasion, who will do that.

Their first, main and sole concern is their own personal career.

[Nucky Thompson]

11 times less severe and past the peak already

 

 

11 TIMES fewer Covid patients in Omicron-ravaged South Africa are being admitted to hospital | Daily Mail Online

 

 

 

[The Real Maroonblood]

32 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Cause Covid only strikes after 8pm and only in bars and restaurants. 

Leave there churches open though, got to have somewhere for their priests to take the kids for a party.

A  bit like the Xmas shite that is spouted.

[Malinga the Swinga]

1 minute ago, Victorian said:

I don't blame people for being very dubious about Ferguson's latest predictions.  He has what might be described as an imperfect record so far.  But some of the predictions he made on the basis of no mitigation being ridiculed after the fact of mitigations being there isn't necessarily very astute.  How do you guage the accuracy of a scenario that was prevented by a critical input being removed from the equation?  Not by citing the end result of a different set of inputs.  Ridiculous.

 

Ferguson's latest appears to take no real account of a couple of important unknown factors.  It's dubious science if some of the inputs are blind.  That does not preclude the possibility of it being bad though.  

As Denis says above, predict the absolute worst, a shitshow of epic proportions and demand that all kinds of restrictions are brought in.

As long as one restriction is actually brought in, he's laughing as he can claim his numbers were right but restrictions saved us.

He will never have to justify predictions because you can't change the past. It's the best job in town, he literally cannot lose.

[FWJ]

30 minutes ago, Dennis Denuto said:

It’s about reducing the number of contacts, the specific time doesn’t matter. 
 

We are two years in why do people still not understand that. Agree with restrictions or don’t but at least understand why they think they need them and what they are trying to achieve, then make up your mind. 
 

I don’t think we need restrictions right now. 

There are none so blind as those that will not see.

[Malinga the Swinga]

1 minute ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

A  bit like the Xmas shite that is spouted.

Even the Welsh decision to close night clubs after Christmas is mad. What, your safe till then, and then Covid will suddenly appear.

It's nonsense decisions like this that piss me off most about politicians, especially the shite ones we have at present.

[Victorian]

Just now, Malinga the Swinga said:

As Denis says above, predict the absolute worst, a shitshow of epic proportions and demand that all kinds of restrictions are brought in.

As long as one restriction is actually brought in, he's laughing as he can claim his numbers were right but restrictions saved us.

He will never have to justify predictions because you can't change the past. It's the best job in town, he literally cannot lose.

 

I don't know or care about his motivations.  What I suspect is that a charlatan would quickly be found out in his profession and amongst his peers.  I tend to remain cautious about dismissing him completely.  I just wont pay too much attention to his predictions yet.

[FWJ]

23 minutes ago, theshed said:

You could be dancing with someone who’s had all their vaccines and still might be positive and pass it on to you   
 

Go and enjoy yourself. After a few drinks you probably won’t care 

And I think this is why some places are  closing early.

Of course you can start earlier or drink faster or whatever - but my suspicion is (and it’s only my suspicion) that people in general will drink less and not become as disinhibited.

[Enzo Chiefo]

1 hour ago, Dusk_Till_Dawn said:

That Neil Ferguson making outlandish predictions again 

Everyone dead by Feb?

[The Real Maroonblood]

4 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Even the Welsh decision to close night clubs after Christmas is mad. What, your safe till then, and then Covid will suddenly appear.

It's nonsense decisions like this that piss me off most about politicians, especially the shite ones we have at present.

Totally this.

An absolute nonsense. 

Exactly similar to last year.

[Enzo Chiefo]

9 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

11 times less severe and past the peak already

 

 

11 TIMES fewer Covid patients in Omicron-ravaged South Africa are being admitted to hospital | Daily Mail Online

 

 

 

Yet another positive indicator from SA. Hopefully our doomster scientists are starting to listen.

[Adam_the_legend]

17 minutes ago, Victorian said:

I don't blame people for being very dubious about Ferguson's latest predictions.  He has what might be described as an imperfect record so far.  But some of the predictions he made on the basis of no mitigation being ridiculed after the fact of mitigations being there isn't necessarily very astute.  How do you guage the accuracy of a scenario that was prevented by a critical input being removed from the equation?  Not by citing the end result of a different set of inputs.  Ridiculous.

 

Ferguson's latest appears to take no real account of a couple of important unknown factors.  It's dubious science if some of the inputs are blind.  That does not preclude the possibility of it being bad though.  

At the same time as his UK predictions he did one for Sweden. There’s a lot of unknowns in this pandemic but NF being wrong is one of the certainties.

 

[Jeff]

Hat trick of Pfizers. Anyone struggling to get a good 5g signal stand near me

Edited December 17, 2021 by Steak

[Seymour M Hersh]

21 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Yet another positive indicator from SA. Hopefully our doomster scientists are starting to listen.

 

No ****ing chance of that ever happening Enzo. 

[Malinga the Swinga]

6 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

I don't know or care about his motivations.  What I suspect is that a charlatan would quickly be found out in his profession and amongst his peers.  I tend to remain cautious about dismissing him completely.  I just wont pay too much attention to his predictions yet.

You say you don't care about his motivation. This is a man who saw nothing wrong with taking money from pharmaceutical companies during SARS crisis, while advising for the WHO. No contrition of conflict of interest, as long as he got paid, he was willing to produce what was required.

Let's have a look at his work 

Foot and Mouth - Ferguson stated there could be up to 150,000 deaths. There were under 200. 11 million sheep and cattle were slaughtered.l during this period.

BSE - Ferguson predicted anywhere between 50 & 50,000 deaths. There were 177 deaths. 

Bird flu - Ferguson said there could be up to 150 million deaths. There were 282 deaths.

Swine Flu - Ferguson said there could be up to 65000 deaths. There were 457 deaths.

You see, he is very careful. He doesn't actually commit to a number. He says it could be this, it could be that. If you say it may be between 0 and 100 million almost certainly you will be in your parameters.

 

Remembering first of all he trained in theoretical Physics, he isn't actually a medical person, he swapped to current profession because of opportunity, and gap in market.

Now, Ferguson is rumoured to earn around £300,000 a year and he has to justify this somehow. He is a mathematician, who learned to code and wrote his own modelling software.

Using this software, he made the estimates above. This is private protected software and is not available for checking.

The important thing is it was one of the first software products to be developed and as such, Ferguson became an expert on them. Once you become an expert on your field, it is almost impossible to lose that status, as long as you quote between a ridiculously low base and an equally as ridiculous high ceiling. Anywhere between them is a success.

The software used for his Covid work was queries by other academics and Ferguson refused to let it be examined.

Eventually, it was released, after he had 6 weeks to rework it and was found to be difficult to understand, basic and error ridden.

Now where are we now in 2021 and Covid.

Again, Ferguson doesn't commit to a specific total in his Covid work regarding deaths or cases, he says between X and y, X being really low and y being unbelievably high. As such, he will be able to say he was right, regardless of the number in reality.

There is academic criticism of Ferguson and his work, it's just not publicised on media as it wouldn't do to cast doubt on a key player in the fight against Covid.

In any case, he won't be wrong with his figures, he can't be because he builds in an unbelievable margin of error.

Is Ferguson clever? Undoubtedly he is.

Is Ferguson the man who the current government should be placing it's trust in implicitly, and to the detriment of other academics, I would say not.

[GinRummy]

Similar article to the Daily Mail one here -

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/s-africa-says-hospitalizations-in-omicron-wave-much-lower

[Malinga the Swinga]

5 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

Similar article to the Daily Mail one here -

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/s-africa-says-hospitalizations-in-omicron-wave-much-lower

Unlikely Drakeford, Sturgeon or Johnson will read or care.

They're locked into worst case scenario and changing tack now would mean them losing face. There is absolutely no chance of that happening.

[GinRummy]

3 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Unlikely Drakeford, Sturgeon or Johnson will read or care.

They're locked into worst case scenario and changing tack now would mean them losing face. There is absolutely no chance of that happening.

Anything they do, without financial support is  just going to be ineffective anyway, imo. They need to make noise I suppose. 

Edited December 17, 2021 by GinRummy

[Adam_the_legend]

11 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

Similar article to the Daily Mail one here -

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/s-africa-says-hospitalizations-in-omicron-wave-much-lower

Think this 🧵 is from that data. Very encouraging. 

 

[Irufushi]

£2.99 for an exempt badge off Amazon. Magic. 
 

keep it in your pocket and if anyone asks , show them the fraudulent card and carry on with your day . 

[Don Dan]

28 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Unlikely Drakeford, Sturgeon or Johnson will read or care.

They're locked into worst case scenario and changing tack now would mean them losing face. There is absolutely no chance of that happening.

It’s a win win scenario for them. Low numbers they claim the plaudits. High numbers they claim they warned you.

[Nucky Thompson]

5 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

It’s a win win scenario for them. Low numbers they claim the plaudits. High numbers they claim they warned you.

Sturgeon should get shot if this blows over without major incident.

Nobody except her devout followers will take any notice of her again

[Don Dan]

BREAKING: Cabinet Secretary Simon Case STEPS DOWN from leading the Downing Street 'Partygate' probe after claims lockdown-busting bashes were held in his OWN office last Christmas

[been here before]

29 minutes ago, Irufushi said:

£2.99 for an exempt badge off Amazon. Magic. 
 

keep it in your pocket and if anyone asks , show them the fraudulent card and carry on with your day . 

 

2.99 for something you dont even need?

 

Sounds barry.

[Nucky Thompson]

16 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

BREAKING: Cabinet Secretary Simon Case STEPS DOWN from leading the Downing Street 'Partygate' probe after claims lockdown-busting bashes were held in his OWN office last Christmas

You couldn't make this shit up.

 

 

[Irufushi]

52 minutes ago, been here before said:

 

2.99 for something you dont even need?

 

Sounds barry.

Cheers pet . X

[Unknown user]

9 hours ago, been here before said:

 

Is that that Cherry lassie from Inside The Factory?

 

I don't know the show but she was in a series of things years ago, Cherry Has a Baby, Cherry Eats a Sandwich. I thought she was alright at first til I realised she's doing investigative journalism into looking for her keys and that.