Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[redjambo]

Per-board per-100,000 case stats:

 

Lanarkshire 48, Ayrshire & Arran 47, Greater Glasgow 44, Forth Valley 18, Lothian 18, Tayside 17, Fife 16, Western Isles 11, Dumfries & Galloway 10.

 

Others: less than 10.

[Enzo Chiefo]

9 minutes ago, redjambo said:

Per-board per-100,000 case stats:

 

Lanarkshire 48, Ayrshire & Arran 47, Greater Glasgow 44, Forth Valley 18, Lothian 18, Tayside 17, Fife 16, Western Isles 11, Dumfries & Galloway 10.

 

Others: less than 10.

Into Tier 2 for Lothian next week then Red??

[steve123]

2 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Are folk in Lanarkshire just walking around chucking bottles of Covid at each other?

Looks like it, if ever there was  sure certs for tier 4 it is surely the top 3 absolutely no chance Lothian should have the same restrictions as them.

Edited October 24, 2020 by steve123

[Enzo Chiefo]

5 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Are folk in Lanarkshire just walking around chucking bottles of Covid at each other?

Makes you wonder tbh. Outwith care homes,  hospitals etc, how exactly are people catching this?? Wtf are they doing? We all know how to avoid being infected.

Edited October 24, 2020 by Enzo Chiefo

[redjambo]

17 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Into Tier 2 for Lothian next week then Red??

 

Ah, the $64,000 question, Enzo. It all depends on the criteria that the SG actually use, and I have no idea of those. Lothian is certainly better than it was and could well be on the margins of tiers 2 or 3, trending towards 2. It's kind of too early to say, and for that reason, the SG might decide to stick to 3. However, as I've expressed before, I would have thought that the tiers chosen for Lanarkshire, Greater Glasgow and Ayrshire should be higher than those for Lothian, Forth Valley etc.

 

It all depends whether they decide to apply the tiers on an NHS board or council basis. Has there been any news about that?

[steve123]

1 minute ago, redjambo said:

 

Ah, the $64,000 question, Enzo. It all depends on the criteria that the SG actually use, and I have no idea of those. Lothian is certainly better than it was and could well be on the margins of tiers 2 or 3, trending towards 2. It's kind of too early to say, and for that reason, the SG might decide to stick to 3. However, as I've expressed before, I would have thought that the tiers chosen for Lanarkshire, Greater Glasgow and Ayrshire should be higher than those for Lothian, Forth Valley etc.

 

It all depends whether they decide to apply the tiers on an NHS board or council basis. Has there been any news about that?

According to Sturgeon yesterday it will be by Council ( although we know that could well have changed by today)

[The Real Maroonblood]

7 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Are folk in Lanarkshire just walking around chucking bottles of Covid at each other?

It’s not as if it’s the marching season.

[steve123]

3 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Nah, cannot be too careful. Special Tier 5 for Auld Reekie - no leaving the house unless you voted SNP.

Not far from the mark to be fair.

[redjambo]

5 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Are folk in Lanarkshire just walking around chucking bottles of Covid at each other?

 

Very probably.

 

Believe it or not, the figure has actually dropped for Lanarkshire today - it was up in the 60's/70's over the last week. Maybe they're running out of bottles.

[Weakened Offender]

1 hour ago, Lone Striker said:

Good point ....... which then carries through to what ends up in food banks.  Most of it will be the cheap and nasty stuff.   Contrast that with a few good-hearted chefs and cooks featured on the TV news during lockdown who were cooking quality food  to deliver free to old  & vulnerable folk.

 

I'd like to see professional cookery schools offer free courses to folk on benefits or low incomes (maybe vouchers dished out by GPs or DWP ?)  ..... and a compulsory return to good old home economics classes at school.  It's a massive problem, but some small  improvements could have huge benefits throughout society.

 

 

I think teaching kids the basics of cooking a nutritional meal is essential and it needs to be done from an early an age as possible. 

Edited October 24, 2020 by Weakened Offender

[redjambo]

1 minute ago, steve123 said:

According to Sturgeon yesterday it will be by Council ( although we know that could well have changed by today)

 

Thanks Steve. My per-board information will be pretty useless then. The Travelling Tabby site usually produces the per-council data at 3pm each day so I may just post a wee summary of the significant movements in that each day if I get the time.

[redjambo]

7 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Makes you wonder tbh. Outwith care homes,  hospitals etc, how exactly are people catching this?? Wtf are they doing? We all know how to avoid being infected.

 

If folk are worried, I tell them that as long as they follow the common sense advice (FACTS, I know, I know) and try to avoid situations where others are blatantly not following the advice, then their chances of catching Covid are very slim. So, I assume that if folk are catching it then they are not doing that.

[Enzo Chiefo]

8 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Ah, the $64,000 question, Enzo. It all depends on the criteria that the SG actually use, and I have no idea of those. Lothian is certainly better than it was and could well be on the margins of tiers 2 or 3, trending towards 2. It's kind of too early to say, and for that reason, the SG might decide to stick to 3. However, as I've expressed before, I would have thought that the tiers chosen for Lanarkshire, Greater Glasgow and Ayrshire should be higher than those for Lothian, Forth Valley etc.

 

It all depends whether they decide to apply the tiers on an NHS board or council basis. Has there been any news about that?

I think it was suggested it would be by council area but I don't know if that was confirmed. Tier 2 or Tier 3?? Getting out for a beer or staying at home with a can😁. No mention of restaurants either iirc??

[Nucky Thompson]

20 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Are folk in Lanarkshire just walking around chucking bottles of Covid at each other?

I don't know about chucking bottles of covid, but they could be pissing on each other, especially in Hamilton

Edited October 24, 2020 by Nucky Thompson

[Enzo Chiefo]

2 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

If folk are worried, I tell them that as long as they follow the common sense advice (FACTS, I know, I know) and try to avoid situations where others are blatantly not following the advice, then their chances of catching Covid are very slim. So, I assume that if folk are catching it then they are not doing that.

Yes, completely agree.  Saw a young couple in Tesco yesterday maskless. Those that don't wear them are always the ones who swagger and strut about. No shame at all...but maybe if they were told they weren't getting served then the penny would drop. I think that the messaging has to change so that those people are criticised and barred from buses, supermarkets etc rather than encouraged and coaxed.  It should also imo be made clear to them that they are putting THEMSELVES at risk of catching it.

[Lone Striker]

20 minutes ago, redjambo said:

Per-board per-100,000 case stats:

 

Lanarkshire 48, Ayrshire & Arran 47, Greater Glasgow 44, Forth Valley 18, Lothian 18, Tayside 17, Fife 16, Western Isles 11, Dumfries & Galloway 10.

 

Others: less than 10.

Question -  to make these stats meaningful in terms of identifying true  local infection rates,  are the actual number of tests being  carried out each day  roughly in proportion to the local populations ?     

 

Example - Western Isles (population say 20k) has stat of  11 per 100k ..... so 2 cases

                - Glasgow (population say 800k) has stat of 44 per 100k    .... so 352 cases

 

Are the number of tests being done in Glasgow approx 40 times the number being done in Western Isles ?    You'd think it would be a lot more than 40 times  in a city that size.  So if they're doing (say) 200 times the number of WI tests per day and the current total cases is 352 , that's not as severe as it first  looks.

 

Sorry... maybe I'm being thick, but its a bit awkward to explain what I'm getting at.

 

 

[Nucky Thompson]

Dodgey Flu jab?

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/23/asia/south-korea-flu-vaccine-deaths-intl-hnk/index.html

[graygo]

This is what prohibition gets you.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-police-find-suspected-illegal-pub-complete-with-bar-70in-tv-toilet-pool-table-and-smoking-area-12113000

[redjambo]

1 minute ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Yes, completely agree.  Saw a young couple in Tesco yesterday maskless. Those that don't wear them are always the ones who swagger and strut about. No shame at all...but maybe if they were told they weren't getting served then the penny would drop. I think that the messaging has to change so that those people are criticised and barred from buses, supermarkets etc rather than encouraged and coaxed.  It should also imo be made clear to them that they are putting THEMSELVES at risk of catching it.

 

Yup, I see the same thing in Tesco as well. I don't understand why the supermarkets don't insist on masks. Perhaps they don't want the hassle of the inevitable confrontations?

 

[Enzo Chiefo]

1 minute ago, redjambo said:

 

Yup, I see the same thing in Tesco as well. I don't understand why the supermarkets don't insist on masks. Perhaps they don't want the hassle of the inevitable confrontations?

 

Yes, i think you're right,  they are wanting to avoid confrontation. But if they were stealing then they would be confronted so it should just be another rule that is enforced. Bus drivers would confront non-payers so why not non mask wearers?? 

[redjambo]

If you want to have a look at the per-council per-100,000 infection stats for today, these are available at https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/local (Breakdown by Council Area->Detailed).

 

 

 

[The Real Maroonblood]

4 minutes ago, redjambo said:

If you want to have a look at the per-council per-100,000 infection stats for today, these are available at https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/local (Breakdown by Council Area->Detailed).

 

 

 

👍

[redjambo]

5 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Yes, i think you're right,  they are wanting to avoid confrontation. But if they were stealing then they would be confronted so it should just be another rule that is enforced. Bus drivers would confront non-payers so why not non mask wearers?? 

 

Perhaps because verbal confrontation might result in the transmission of the virus from the transgressor to the bus driver, and that worries bus drivers?

 

I agree in that I would like to see facemask-wearing enforced where it has been made mandatory. It's just a shame that we live in a society where so many folk don't "get it" when it comes to doing what's best for society as a whole. By all means protest, by all means make representations or boycott, whatever, but don't carry out actions that endanger the healths of other people. Anyway, I'm sure that raises a whole other debate, that has often been discussed on here , so I'll climb gracefully back down from my hastily-assembled soap box.

[steve123]

7 minutes ago, redjambo said:

If you want to have a look at the per-council per-100,000 infection stats for today, these are available at https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/local (Breakdown by Council Area->Detailed).

 

 

 

So on that per 100,000 population Edinburgh is nowhere near the highest, infact is under tighter restrictions than other places with higher numbers !!

[redjambo]

1 minute ago, steve123 said:

So on that per 100,000 population Edinburgh is nowhere near the highest, infact is under tighter restrictions than other places with higher numbers !!

 

With a value of 14 today and an average value of 13 over the last week, the City of Edinburgh is looking very good, imo.

 

When deciding on the tiers though, it's very possible that the SG will treat areas a bit more strictly if they are surrounded by higher-value areas where there is large-scale movement between these areas. I don't think it will be as simplistic as a straight per-capita infection rate -> tier number translation.

 

But yes, your analysis is correct. However, given that the central belt was placed under current restrictions when the Lothians etc. had higher infection rates, and everything was just lumped together, the fact that Edinburgh is in this situation is historical, and perhaps we should wait until the new tiers are implemented to get a better idea of anomalies like the one you're highlighting.

[steve123]

4 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

With a value of 14 today and an average value of 13 over the last week, the City of Edinburgh is looking very good, imo.

 

When deciding on the tiers though, it's very possible that the SG will treat areas a bit more strictly if they are surrounded by higher-value areas where there is large-scale movement between these areas. I don't think it will be as simplistic as a straight per-capita infection rate -> tier number translation.

 

But yes, your analysis is correct. However, given that the central belt was placed under current restrictions when the Lothians etc. had higher infection rates, and everything was just lumped together, the fact that Edinburgh is in this situation is historical, and perhaps we should wait until the new tiers are implemented to get a better idea of anomalies like the one you're highlighting.

Yea fair analysis, in all honesty pubs etc don't effect me that much as not in them every week but I feel for the businesses  that are under so much pressure.

Edited October 24, 2020 by steve123

[Francis Albert]

One of the "non-essentials" you can't buy in Welsh supermarkets are phone rechargers. 

So much for the crucial role of the NHS APP.

[redjambo]

44 minutes ago, Lone Striker said:

Question -  to make these stats meaningful in terms of identifying true  local infection rates,  are the actual number of tests being  carried out each day  roughly in proportion to the local populations ?     

 

Example - Western Isles (population say 20k) has stat of  11 per 100k ..... so 2 cases

                - Glasgow (population say 800k) has stat of 44 per 100k    .... so 352 cases

 

Are the number of tests being done in Glasgow approx 40 times the number being done in Western Isles ?    You'd think it would be a lot more than 40 times  in a city that size.  So if they're doing (say) 200 times the number of WI tests per day and the current total cases is 352 , that's not as severe as it first  looks.

 

Sorry... maybe I'm being thick, but its a bit awkward to explain what I'm getting at.

 

I'm not sure that it's as simple as preferring that the per-capita testing rates are the same for all populations. Above a certain number of tests, you're going to get an increasingly small number of positives per test, essentially because you're "over-testing", beyond the sweet spot, if such a thing is possible. So, the Western Isles for example could test 100% of their population each week, and thus would have a testing ratio much greater than Lanarkshire, but how much value would those extra tests provide? I don't know if that makes sense or not. As long as the same criteria are used nationally in each area to determine who should be tested, then that should perhaps be enough to maintain some sort of consistency in the resulting data, imo.

 

I can see where you're coming from though. If you check out https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/local (Breakdown by Council Area->Detailed), then the final few columns concern testing. The per-100,000 testing over the last 7 days ranges from 341 in Orkney to 1506 in Stirling. So you're right in that there is a significant disparity in testing rates, and I'll have to leave it to you and any statisticians on here to determine what effect that might be having.

Edited October 24, 2020 by redjambo

[frankblack]

51 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

I don't know about chucking bottles of covid, but they could be pissing on each other, especially in Hamilton

 

Isn't there a poster on here who could police that? 🤔

[steve123]

4 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Halloween banned by the SG. No guising.

 

Chapping someone's door, singing a wee song from 2m away and having them toss a couple of wee packets of Haribo into their buckets is clearly going to kill millions.

 

 

I wonder if the will have the police out looking for groups of guisers 🤣🤣 we will be doing it in our street in a controlled environment with the parents taking all sensible precautions ( and only at houses we know) - in danger of going way over the top with this.

[redjambo]

Just now, jonesy said:

Halloween banned by the SG. No guising.

 

Chapping someone's door, singing a wee song from 2m away and having them toss a couple of wee packets of Haribo into their buckets is clearly going to kill millions.

 

Given that singing could well increase transmission of an infected aerosol and also that it has been shown that Covid can remain on surfaces (think sweet wrappers, coins etc), I think it's probably a good move. We're in the middle of a pandemic, trying to get it under control, so encouraging contact is not the wisest course of action.

[Enzo Chiefo]

3 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Halloween banned by the SG. No guising.

 

Chapping someone's door, singing a wee song from 2m away and having them toss a couple of wee packets of Haribo into their buckets is clearly going to kill millions.

 

 

Neil Ferguson,  Imperial College's resident doommonger, has now opined that if families mix on Christmas Day then "loved ones will die". Not sure if those deaths are included in the 500k that he previously modelled😁. Best get a couple of good bottles of red in and a finest malt so we can go out in style.

[Shanks said no]

1 hour ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Makes you wonder tbh. Outwith care homes,  hospitals etc, how exactly are people catching this?? Wtf are they doing? We all know how to avoid being infected.

 

It is a bit odd, listening to Leitch on OTB at lunchtime. Does he really need to explain to people how to wash their hands? Is that the standard of cleanliness in Lanarkshire, grown ups don't know how to wash?

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

This welsh leader is acting like a total cock

[JudyJudyJudy]

1 hour ago, jonesy said:

Nah, cannot be too careful. Special Tier 5 for Auld Reekie - no leaving the house unless you voted SNP.

Yes this is going to be more political than dictated by the “ science “ . I can’t imagine Lothian being in a less restrictive tier than Glasgow . 

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

1 minute ago, weehammy said:

AKA Dr Death ⚰️

There was a good piece on him in Private Eye, relating to foot and mouth.

 

His basic MO - predict huge casualties. The government then take drastic measures and the casualties are nowhere near the predicted levels. Take credit for the ‘reduction’, even though the original estimate was probably bollocks.

[AlimOzturk]

https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/edinburgh-news/edinburghs-hospitality-sector-launch-legal-19152624
 

[JudyJudyJudy]

16 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Neil Ferguson,  Imperial College's resident doommonger, has now opined that if families mix on Christmas Day then "loved ones will die". Not sure if those deaths are included in the 500k that he previously modelled😁. Best get a couple of good bottles of red in and a finest malt so we can go out in style.

He’s another one who can **** right off . 

[redjambo]

10 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Neil Ferguson,  Imperial College's resident doommonger, has now opined that if families mix on Christmas Day then "loved ones will die". Not sure if those deaths are included in the 500k that he previously modelled😁. Best get a couple of good bottles of red in and a finest malt so we can go out in style.

 

There's no way the SG will be able to keep families apart at Christmas. So, they're going to have to concentrate on very clear and concise advice (bubbles, isolation etc.) and plough resources into quick-result testing with the aim of carrying out a massive national testing program before Christmas. Alternatively they might possibly enforce a strict lockdown just before Christmas if need be in order to keep Christmas clear. However, as an optimist, I'm hoping that we'll have far more control of the virus by then and that infection rates will be well down.

 

If you're into malts by the way, the Arran distillery do a nice selection of cask finishes, including Amarone, Sauternes and Marsala. The Marsala one is superb, imo.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

28 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

Isn't there a poster on here who could police that? 🤔

 

Indeed there is, however they seem to go MIA at the weekends for some reason.

[Enzo Chiefo]

6 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

There's no way the SG will be able to keep families apart at Christmas. So, they're going to have to concentrate on very clear and concise advice (bubbles, isolation etc.) and plough resources into quick-result testing with the aim of carrying out a massive national testing program before Christmas. Alternatively they might possibly enforce a strict lockdown just before Christmas if need be in order to keep Christmas clear. However, as an optimist, I'm hoping that we'll have far more control of the virus by then and that infection rates will be well down.

 

If you're into malts by the way, the Arran distillery do a nice selection of cask finishes, including Amarone, Sauternes and Marsala. The Marsala one is superb, imo.

Yes, rapid, mass testing is surely the way out of this. I certainly hope your optimism is realised. 

I'm more of a good wine and real ale man but do have a malt occasionally, Christmas, New Year, during pandemics etc 😁, so thanks for the Arran recommendations.  

[Enzo Chiefo]

5 minutes ago, jonesy said:

That guy's more of a charlatan than Tim Burgess.

 

Just taken delivery of some lovely Californian Zinfandel x 6 and and Catalan Priorat. The only thing will be holding them back for Christmas...

Planning ahead, that's the spirit Jonesy👍. One step ahead of any SG complete alcohol ban

[redjambo]

1 minute ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Yes, rapid, mass testing is surely the way out of this. I certainly hope your optimism is realised. 

I'm more of a good wine and real ale man but do have a malt occasionally, Christmas, New Year, during pandemics etc 😁, so thanks for the Arran recommendations.  

 

I've never drunk as much whisky as during the current pandemic. To help kill the Covid virus of course...

[Enzo Chiefo]

Just now, redjambo said:

 

I've never drunk as much whisky as during the current pandemic. To help kill the Covid virus of course...

😁. For medicinal purposes only👍

[Enzo Chiefo]

26 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

He’s another one who can **** right off . 

Yes, indeed. Don't know why he gets so much air time.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

9 minutes ago, jonesy said:

I genuinely think that guy spends at least part of his time in an institution of some sorts and gets his internet access there. I hope he receives the help he needs. 

 

Probably on duty at the week-ends, as a face mask warden, can just picture him marching up and down the high street with his little baton under his arm shouting 'get your mask on, get your mask on, get your mask on, or I'll take your names down and report you'.

[Shanks said no]

4 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

Probably on duty at the week-ends, as a face mask warden, can just picture him marching up and down the high street with his little baton under his arm shouting 'get your mask on, get your mask on, get your mask on, or I'll take your names down and report you'.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

2 minutes ago, The Frenchman Returns said:

 

Similar, but these guys were often heroes........

[Lone Striker]

7 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

Probably on duty at the week-ends, as a face mask warden, can just picture him marching up and down the high street with his little baton under his arm shouting 'get your mask on, get your mask on, get your mask on, or I'll take your names down and report you'.

 

[JudyJudyJudy]

37 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

There's no way the SG will be able to keep families apart at Christmas. So, they're going to have to concentrate on very clear and concise advice (bubbles, isolation etc.) and plough resources into quick-result testing with the aim of carrying out a massive national testing program before Christmas. Alternatively they might possibly enforce a strict lockdown just before Christmas if need be in order to keep Christmas clear. However, as an optimist, I'm hoping that we'll have far more control of the virus by then and that infection rates will be well down.

 

If you're into malts by the way, the Arran distillery do a nice selection of cask finishes, including Amarone, Sauternes and Marsala. The Marsala one is superb, imo.

Aye they can forget about trying to police Xmas day.  Mass civil disobedience will be the order of the day , if it’s still the sand restrictions . It probably won’t be as the SG will try save face and “ Allow” family visits maybe wrapping them up as “ compassionate visits “ just for the 24 hours , then come Jan full lockdown as no one really goes out then and most people are depressed