Weakened Offender Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 9 minutes ago, Victorian said: Think I saw a stat of India's population being 50% under 25. Really??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brighton Jambo Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 Very interesting thread posted on Twitter about the reality of Scotland elimination claims. The good news is that this aligns to other experts who say elimination is not possible. I don’t mean it’s good news it can’t be eliminated but it’s good news we aren’t all going to be subjected to the pain of lengthy and harsh restrictions for something that can’t be achieved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victorian Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 That greatly depends on one's definition and contextulisation of "elimination" and "close". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taffin Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 8 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said: Very interesting thread posted on Twitter about the reality of Scotland elimination claims. The good news is that this aligns to other experts who say elimination is not possible. I don’t mean it’s good news it can’t be eliminated but it’s good news we aren’t all going to be subjected to the pain of lengthy and harsh restrictions for something that can’t be achieved. I think he's in the scientific expert who we aren't meant to listen to category though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Footballfirst Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 38 minutes ago, DETTY29 said: @FootballfirstI'm sure put up some info that the UK Gov is looking for 79.1% of the adult population to be vaccinated. I think they all need to move away from this 'offered' a vaccine being the be all and end all target and focus more on jags administered. Northern Ireland is a prime example of being the first UK nation to call out having met the first 'offered' all Category 1-4 JCVI cohorts when at that time 'only' 75% (still good) of 70-74s had been vaccinated and are now pushing the over 70s to make appointments via their GPs if the mass vaccinations centres didn't work for them. And their clinically vulnerable stats at the time was only 23% with the other 3 nations @80+%. The modelling paper used the following assumptions to come up with the 79.1% of those eligible: Care home residents - 95% Care home workers - 85% 80 plus - 95% 50-80 - 85% Under 50s - 75% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Gin Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 (edited) . Edited February 25, 2021 by Ray Gin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weakened Offender Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ray Gin said: You're both being drama queens. James has been a primary antagonist on this thread throughout. Playing the 'B' card when someone loses patience and dishes it back at him is a bit rich. I'm glad someone else sees this. James was called out by Red and a few people reacted positively to his post. Jonsey chips in for his mascot and lobs a bullying accusation into the mix which James is unsurprisingly all over bigtime. Red crumbles and decides that Kickback is an airport where his departure has to be repeatedly announced whilst James sits back and says its nothing to do with me and Jonsey disappears. Pathetic. 😀 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DETTY29 Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 12 minutes ago, Footballfirst said: The modelling paper used the following assumptions to come up with the 79.1% of those eligible: Care home residents - 95% Care home workers - 85% 80 plus - 95% 50-80 - 85% Under 50s - 75% Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Real Maroonblood Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, Weakened Offender said: I'm glad someone else sees this. James was called out by Red and a few people reacted positively to his post. Jonsey chips in for his mascot and lobs a bullying accusation into the mix which James is unsurprisingly all over bigtime. Red crumbles and decides that Kickback is an airport where his departure has to be repeatedly announced whilst James sits back and says its nothing to do with me and Jonsey disappears. Pathetic. 😀 Also the resident expert goes for a lie down in a darkened room.😏 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weakened Offender Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, jonesy said: I actually grudgingly admire your contribution to the proceedings, it worked a treat. 😐 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankblack Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 3 hours ago, Brian Dundas said: This should help get the debate off and running today https://www.ft.com/content/e1eddd2f-cb0b-4c7a-8872-2783810fae8d It’s the FT view on Scotland’s management of wave 2 Looks like that is paywalled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JudyJudyJudy Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 27 minutes ago, Weakened Offender said: I'm glad someone else sees this. James was called out by Red and a few people reacted positively to his post. Jonsey chips in for his mascot and lobs a bullying accusation into the mix which James is unsurprisingly all over bigtime. Red crumbles and decides that Kickback is an airport where his departure has to be repeatedly announced whilst James sits back and says its nothing to do with me and Jonsey disappears. Pathetic. 😀 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 56 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said: Very interesting thread posted on Twitter about the reality of Scotland elimination claims. The good news is that this aligns to other experts who say elimination is not possible. I don’t mean it’s good news it can’t be eliminated but it’s good news we aren’t all going to be subjected to the pain of lengthy and harsh restrictions for something that can’t be achieved. Why is he advising a holyrood committee and not devi? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enzo Chiefo Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 57 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said: Very interesting thread posted on Twitter about the reality of Scotland elimination claims. The good news is that this aligns to other experts who say elimination is not possible. I don’t mean it’s good news it can’t be eliminated but it’s good news we aren’t all going to be subjected to the pain of lengthy and harsh restrictions for something that can’t be achieved. So, Devi wants to pull up the drawbridge and, aside from curtailing our freedom to travel, more importantly, cut off the vital trade and tourism that a small country like Scotland relies on. All on the spurious grounds of an elimination strategy. She has been told by many other experts, and now by one of her Edin Uni colleagues that it is unachievable and damaging in a trading nation like the UK. Given that she, and others, seem to be informing Scot Gov policy, will she admit she is wrong and advise the FM to change course? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Governor Tarkin Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said: Devi wants to pull up the drawbridge. A lot of that going about, Enzo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enzo Chiefo Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 Just now, Governor Tarkin said: A lot of that going about, Enzo. 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JudyJudyJudy Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, jonesy said: You're giving me far to much credit. Far from being a Machiavellian genius, I was actually mentioning to Malinga that I hesitated to call red's post as bullying, but did understand how he saw it as such. Fashionable modern politics would seem to suggest that James' interpretation of the post trumps red's intentions, anyway. As an SNP supporter, I'm sure you'd agree Yes he has twisted and distorted the whole sorry incident yesterday to suit his narrative about me and probably you . His understanding and interpretation of what was actually said yesterday is completely skewered .I’m over it . It’s yesterday’s news . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weakened Offender Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, jonesy said: You're giving me far to much credit. Far from being a Machiavellian genius, I was actually mentioning to Malinga that I hesitated to call red's post as bullying, but did understand how he saw it as such. Fashionable modern politics would seem to suggest that James' interpretation of the post trumps red's intentions, anyway. As an SNP supporter, I'm sure you'd agree Aye, OK then. 😊 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brighton Jambo Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said: A lot of that going about, Enzo. There is which is why it’s vital we hear from the experts on why it won’t work. It seems to me that the majority view is that elimination is not a viable option so hopefully common sense starts to prevail. Frankly I think Nicola Sturgeon knows this as if she was genuinely following elimination you wouldn’t have opened schools this week with current rates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enzo Chiefo Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said: I found more interesting from Prof Woolhouse was that the lowering rates of infection are only in the old variant and the new one is just being contained not reduced. That's got to be a slight worry and maybe justifies a slower approach to opening up, we need to wait until the vaccination numbers are higher. Yes, that was interesting but then he went on to say that the data was good, which could justify accelerating the removal of restrictions. Seemed a bit contradictory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weakened Offender Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, jonesy said: Cool. I'll bash on at being the pantomime villain, James can bash on with his personal development, and WO can bash on mashing his keyboard with his Wotsit-stained index fingers in the hope that, one day, a decent post will emerge on the screen. Practise makes perfect 😉 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enzo Chiefo Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Brian Dundas said: It might be the way it was presented on twitter, but a lot of what he 'said' seemed confused. Yes, could be the way it was presented, Brian. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JudyJudyJudy Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 19 minutes ago, jonesy said: Cool. I'll bash on at being the pantomime villain, James can bash on with his personal development, and WO can bash on mashing his keyboard with his Wotsit-stained index fingers in the hope that, one day, a decent post will emerge on the screen. Sounds like a good plan 😎 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Gin Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 33 minutes ago, jonesy said: Cool. I'll bash on at being the pantomime villain, James can bash on with his personal development, and WO can bash on mashing his keyboard with his Wotsit-stained index fingers in the hope that, one day, a decent post will emerge on the screen. Stop bullying WO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DETTY29 Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 1 hour ago, Enzo Chiefo said: So, Devi wants to pull up the drawbridge and, aside from curtailing our freedom to travel, more importantly, cut off the vital trade and tourism that a small country like Scotland relies on. All on the spurious grounds of an elimination strategy. She has been told by many other experts, and now by one of her Edin Uni colleagues that it is unachievable and damaging in a trading nation like the UK. Given that she, and others, seem to be informing Scot Gov policy, will she admit she is wrong and advise the FM to change course? Really don't know why scientists use terminology that they really don't mean, or not match the dictionary comparison. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JudyJudyJudy Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 1 minute ago, jonesy said: What actually is an elimination strategy? I'm guessing it's not as clear cut as 100% elimination of the virus within a geographical area. I wondered that too . It’s what it says on the tin I suppose which is clearly impossible ! But that won’t prevent some Govts from trying too achieve it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manaliveits105 Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 Oh dear did someone really suggest that she stops doing the daily briefings !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GinRummy Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 Just now, manaliveits105 said: Oh dear did someone really suggest that she stops doing the daily briefings !! Someone on here or in real life? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manaliveits105 Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 1 minute ago, GinRummy said: Someone on here or in real life? a conservative msp in FM questions - following on a recommendation from the peoples forum or something that the scientists and clinicians not politicians should be doing them Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victorian Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 1 minute ago, jonesy said: So does that contrast with an eradication strategy, or is just two terms for the same thing? Eradication is much more clearly defined. It's an absolute. Elimination is essentially temporary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GinRummy Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 Just now, manaliveits105 said: a conservative msp in FM questions - following on a recommendation from the peoples forum or something that the scientists and clinicians not politicians should be doing them Sounds like a decent idea. Don't normally bother watching her these days but might watch that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scott herbertson Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 As I understand it eradication is the complete global absence of the virus - ie it's not anywhere and therefore won't come back. Elimination is trying to stop community transmission in a geographic area ~We came very close to elimination in Scotland in the summer (NZ has achieved it of course) To use NZ as an example it has eliminated the virus from its own country but it can't eradicate the virus as its still kicking around elsewhere, waiting to get in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JudyJudyJudy Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 9 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said: Eradication is complete global wipe out of the virus, it is a multi governmental long term project, like small pox for example. Both are laudable but are they achievable ? Small pox is similar to cV but it takes a longer exposure to it than cv . That’s why it’s almost impossible to eradicate / eliminate Cv unfortunately Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikey1874 Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scott herbertson Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said: I think the WHO say 28 days without a case is elimination, however that requires someone getting tested. The debate today has been around how low was the virus transmitting in the summer in Scotland? Was there just nobody getting tested but it still circulating widely? We were testing lower numbers (mainly through people coming forward ) but at the low points eg 25th June just 5 cases, over 4,000 people tested. So it was very low - probably less than 100 people with it. But you have to remember the airports were open, no quarantine, the trains were full from England to Scotland (and vice versa) so new cases regularly coming in. With really efficient test and trace we might have held it back at those kind of levels, much as sat, Australia has done, but looks like the new more virulent variants scuppered that prospect Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victorian Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 If we didn't have vaccines or if they were less efficacious then we would probably be seeing another attempt at elimination. We do have vaccines and they seem to be highly efficacious. No matter what anyone in gvt or science burbles about now, there wont be an attempt at elimination. Certainly not for long. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Gin Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 49 minutes ago, jonesy said: What actually is an elimination strategy? I'm guessing it's not as clear cut as 100% elimination of the virus within a geographical area. Eliminating = getting it pretty much down to zero and having extremely strict border control (no tourists) to keep it there. See Australia, New Zealand, China, Vietnam, Taiwan etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fxxx the SPFL Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said: Scottish numbers: 25 February 2021 Summary 769 new cases of COVID-19 reported 24,589 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results – 3.7% of these were positive 31 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive 89 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 967 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 1,515,980 people have received the first dose of the Covid vaccination and 56,661 have received their second dose slipping up BD are you not meant to show the drop from yesterday lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fxxx the SPFL Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 Just now, Brian Dundas said: Cases stagnating, everything else dropping nicely. Deaths down from 40 - 30 in the week. cheers BD and good effort at the spreadsheet big jump up for Auld Reeekie 24 in one day booooo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DETTY29 Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, jonesy said: What actually is an elimination strategy? I'm guessing it's not as clear cut as 100% elimination of the virus within a geographical area. Supress as much as possible and get test, trace and self solation sorted to break the transmission until vaccination is a BAU process? Edited February 25, 2021 by DETTY29 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Real Maroonblood Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 22 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said: Here is Red's spread sheet - I have changed a couple of things, being the negative lockdown junkie that he is, the table was the wrong way up, so now we have good areas at the top, bad areas at the bottom - the optimists view. Also I have included Scotland in the table rather than at the top so you can see who is pulling us up and who is letting us down!! 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Gin Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 15 minutes ago, jonesy said: Elimination, on the surface, appears like a short term approach with no end-game in mind. Only if they don't bother to vaccinate. It has allowed stuff like this to be going on, which looks a lot more fun that what we are going through here: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dazo Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 40 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said: Here is Red's spread sheet - I have changed a couple of things, being the negative lockdown junkie that he is, the table was the wrong way up, so now we have good areas at the top, bad areas at the bottom - the optimists view. Also I have included Scotland in the table rather than at the top so you can see who is pulling us up and who is letting us down!! Cheers Brian I also prefer the good areas at the top. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dennis Reynolds Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 Thanks for the numbers! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JudyJudyJudy Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 40 minutes ago, jonesy said: Elimination, on the surface, appears like a short term approach with no end-game in mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Dan Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 COVID-19: UK alert level downgraded as threat of NHS being overwhelmed recedes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Dan Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, JamesM48 said: But what about T cells? There will always be new variants and vaccine will be tweaked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
connlach Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 54 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said: Here is Red's spread sheet - I have changed a couple of things, being the negative lockdown junkie that he is, the table was the wrong way up, so now we have good areas at the top, bad areas at the bottom - the optimists view. Also I have included Scotland in the table rather than at the top so you can see who is pulling us up and who is letting us down!! Thank you to red for the hard work and to you taking over the baton. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JudyJudyJudy Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 13 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said: But what about T cells? There will always be new variants and vaccine will be tweaked Exactly ! It’s never ending fear to be perfectly . Live with it not in fear of it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JudyJudyJudy Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 11 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said: One of the advantages of an elimination strategy is it prevents variants traveling around the world, it is likely too late once one is discovered. So if travel was limited everywhere to actually essential then we should be able to go forward more quickly and avoid going backwards. That’s the problem it’s probably too late when they are discovered . It’s never ending . So need to think of what is the most realistic approach Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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