U.S. Politics megathread (merged)

[redjambo]

4 hours ago, Justin Z said:

 

They might pass a non-binding resolution to do that, in either chamber. It won't actually have any legal effect. Kind of like House Republicans calling votes to repeal Obamacare every f***ing day during your presidency.

 

 

OMG, is Barack really Barack, the ex-president?! I thought it was just a humorous JKB username.

[redjambo]

2 minutes ago, Barack said:

You think I talk about US Constitutional stuff for fun...?

 

No, Sir, not now anyway.

 

P.S. What's the real reason you didn't endorse Beto O'Rourke? We won't tell anyone.

[redjambo]

2 minutes ago, Barack said:

Don't like skateboards. Fell off one, once.

 

It hurt.

 

Sounds reasonable enough to me. Please accept my thoughts and prayers for your pain.

[Sharpie]

Trump also being looked at because of his gains through the White House using his facilities. On trips to his golf courses he gains from golf cart rentals for Secret Service and other costs relative to security, the amounts are quite outstanding.

[Craig Gordons Gloves]

I think regardless of your political persuasion you have to look at his behavior last night and wonder how far down a hole of lack of decency the presidency has fallen.  Fair enough if you don't believe Ford, fair enough if you think it's a conspiracy but for an actual president to stand there and mock an alleged victim of a current investigation and for women to be standing there cheering while waving a "women for Trump" sign was just disgraceful.  

 

FA makes a good point too, the singular lack of leadership amongst the Democrats is a reason he and the rest are getting away with whatever they actually want.  

[Watt-Zeefuik]

6 minutes ago, Craig Gordons Gloves said:

I think regardless of your political persuasion you have to look at his behavior last night and wonder how far down a hole of lack of decency the presidency has fallen.  Fair enough if you don't believe Ford, fair enough if you think it's a conspiracy but for an actual president to stand there and mock an alleged victim of a current investigation and for women to be standing there cheering while waving a "women for Trump" sign was just disgraceful.  

 

FA makes a good point too, the singular lack of leadership amongst the Democrats is a reason he and the rest are getting away with whatever they actually want.  

 

I think this last bit is wrong -- the most important thing in standing against Trump is the midterms coming up in a month. There used to be some degree of bipartisan accord in the Senate, but McConnell (who's really the bigger villain in all of this than Trump) has completely ended that, all the while whining about Democrats being mean to him. The House has generally always gone the way of the majority party, unless it's narrowly divided and enough members of the majority feel like they have to be seen as centrists (which was the case for most of the Democratic majorities in the last two decades).

 

The Senate is a very long shot for Democrats because of the way the map just happens to shake out this year, but a big margin in the House would make a huge difference in slowing down Trump. If we wait until 2020, it's probably way too late.

[Craig Gordons Gloves]

2 hours ago, Barack said:

 

Thought he would've held off, considering his last attempt to mock.

 

Oh, and this, from the other day...

 

 

Never mind, eh...

 

 

 

Exactly - sadly his comments last night weren't in the least bit surprising.

[Craig Gordons Gloves]

2 hours ago, Ugly American said:

 

I think this last bit is wrong -- the most important thing in standing against Trump is the midterms coming up in a month. There used to be some degree of bipartisan accord in the Senate, but McConnell (who's really the bigger villain in all of this than Trump) has completely ended that, all the while whining about Democrats being mean to him. The House has generally always gone the way of the majority party, unless it's narrowly divided and enough members of the majority feel like they have to be seen as centrists (which was the case for most of the Democratic majorities in the last two decades).

 

The Senate is a very long shot for Democrats because of the way the map just happens to shake out this year, but a big margin in the House would make a huge difference in slowing down Trump. If we wait until 2020, it's probably way too late.

 

Yeah, i agree that the mid terms are important with regards standing against him and his 'policies' and even at the level of congress or senate there isn't a clear leader of the democrat party. Pelosi and Schumer don't stand out as galvanizing leaders and the entire party is suffering from throwing everything behind Hillary with no thought to any succession/future planning.  No doubt someone will appear but Sanders and to a lesser extent Warren (who've both been mentioned as potential challengers in 2020) would struggle to gain popularity/support among the 20% of floating voters.

[Ulysses]

4 hours ago, Craig Gordons Gloves said:

 

Yeah, i agree that the mid terms are important with regards standing against him and his 'policies' and even at the level of congress or senate there isn't a clear leader of the democrat party. Pelosi and Schumer don't stand out as galvanizing leaders and the entire party is suffering from throwing everything behind Hillary with no thought to any succession/future planning.  No doubt someone will appear but Sanders and to a lesser extent Warren (who've both been mentioned as potential challengers in 2020) would struggle to gain popularity/support among the 20% of floating voters.

 

 

I get what you're saying, but people didn't name Obama as a genuine potential leader in 2006 - he was a part-term Senator at that stage.  Obama and Hillary Clinton were regarded as possible candidates at that stage - but so too were the likes of Al Gore, John Kerry, John Edwards and Joe Biden.  Likewise, was Bill Clinton on the Democrat radar in 1990?

 

Bill Clinton had to gain momentum in the primary season before being seen as the potential winner.  For a long time in the 2008 primary campaign Obama and Hillary Clinton were neck and neck.

 

The main characters seen as party leaders and likely candidates at mid-term in recent years who then went on to be candidates were all on the Republican side - Bob Dole (lost in 1996), Mitt Romney (lost in 2012) and George W. Bush (won in 2000).

Edited October 3, 2018 by Ulysses

[Eldar Hadzimehmedovic]

I think it's a good thing the Dems don't yet have a clear figurehead leader. Trump and the GOP are so masterful at targetting their enemies by whatever means necessary, and their supporters so dripping with resentment and ignorance, that having a target for all of that will only energise them even more. 

Edited October 3, 2018 by Eldar Hadzimehmedovic

[Francis Albert]

29 minutes ago, Eldar Hadzimehmedovic said:

I think it's a good thing the Dems don't yet have a clear figurehead leader. Trump and the GOP are so masterful at targetting their enemies by whatever means necessary, and their supporters so dripping with resentment and ignorance, that having a target for all of that will only energise them even more. 

The Democrats have hardly been reticent about targeting Trump, a target (in football terms) as easy to hit as a barn door, but so far with limited success.

[Francis Albert]

5 hours ago, Craig Gordons Gloves said:

 

Yeah, i agree that the mid terms are important with regards standing against him and his 'policies' and even at the level of congress or senate there isn't a clear leader of the democrat party. Pelosi and Schumer don't stand out as galvanizing leaders and the entire party is suffering from throwing everything behind Hillary with no thought to any succession/future planning.  No doubt someone will appear but Sanders and to a lesser extent Warren (who've both been mentioned as potential challengers in 2020) would struggle to gain popularity/support among the 20% of floating voters.

It would be going with a weaker candidate than last time (much as I admire Bernie).

Edited October 3, 2018 by Francis Albert

[ri Alban]

Michelle would wipe the floor with this clown. She's everything he's not and he hates. 

[Seymour M Hersh]

22 hours ago, Barack said:

You think I talk about US Constitutional stuff for fun...?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So how did you afford that big old house in Chicago? A lot of folk from there are keen to know.

[peter_hmfc]

"As the suspect barricaded himself in the home with children, authorities used a mine-resistant ambush protected (MRAP) vehicle -- something usually associated with war zones -- to get all the wounded officers to safety, Boone said."

 

"They say it's like a war-zone folks, they say it's like a war-zone."

 

Florence (South Carolina) shooting, 1 officer dead, 6 other officers shot, plus a civilian shot.

 

But I thought more guns equals less crime?

Edited October 4, 2018 by peter_hmfc

[Francis Albert]

11 hours ago, ri Alban said:

Michelle would wipe the floor with this clown. She's everything he's not and he hates. 

Have at least one thing in common. Never a politician and never held any political office (before in Trump's case the highest political office in the world). Michelle would be like following Cathro with another rookie.

[Sharpie]

So the investigation is over, no new corroborating evidence so Kavanaugh will be confirmed, Flake already showing weakness and will vote yes.

So Kavanaugh beomes a Judge in the S.C.U.S.A, Trump then fires Rosenstein, appoints another lackey, who cancels the Mueller probe, Republican majority in the Court so he will be free to do what he likes, Kavanaugh for sure will make sure this president will never be subpoenad, never as sitting president be investigated or charged, and we worry about firearms control. There will be no controls over a lieing, cheating, tax fraud suspect, mebbe someone should ask the religious right how this equates to god blessing America. My friend on the forum constantly uses history, so I will quote some of my own, Greece, Rome, Great Britain, all in their day empires, the United States has never claimed Empirism, but oft say they are the greatest country ever, their present dupe talks about the worlds greatest armies, the richest country in history, all of the aforementioned empires made similar claims, and the saying the bigger they are the harder they fall certainly rings true here.

Donald Trump singlehandedly has raised in me the strongest politically based emotions I am ever aware of feeling. There is not a lot of harm he can cause me personally, I have achieved all my ambitions, bucket lists, and life goals, but I have a son, four grandchildren, and two great grandchildren, and I despair for their lives if Trump is an example of the worlds future leaders.

 

 

 

Edited October 4, 2018 by bobsharp

[Seymour M Hersh]

4 hours ago, Barack said:

Kenyan Blood Diamonds.

 

Nope, wrong answer. 

Edited October 4, 2018 by Seymour M Hersh

[redjambo]

28 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

Nope, wrong answer. 

 

Hey, if anyone's going to know, it's the ex-president.

[Unknown user]

12 hours ago, ri Alban said:

Michelle would wipe the floor with this clown. She's everything he's not and he hates. 

What, black and a woman?

[Seymour M Hersh]

13 hours ago, ri Alban said:

Michelle would wipe the floor with this clown. She's everything he's not and he hates. 

 

I doubt she would. The Obamas are about as well liked as the Clintons. 

[ri Alban]

1 hour ago, Francis Albert said:

Have at least one thing in common. Never a politician and never held any political office (before in Trump's case the highest political office in the world). Michelle would be like following Cathro with another rookie.

She has the coolest President ever to help her learn. 

Edited October 4, 2018 by ri Alban

[ri Alban]

52 minutes ago, Smithee said:

What, black and a woman?

Intelligent! 

[Watt-Zeefuik]

Folks Michelle isn't running. The only people talking about her running are has-been talking heads like Glenn Beck. Trump was partly the fault of Obama's general willingness to believe the best in people, even when they were being complete and utter arseholes like McConnell and Ryan.

 

I wouldn't re-nominate Obama at this point even if it were allowed. And Michelle is obviously sick of the limelight and has been getting back to work that doesn't involve sparring with racist shitheads and having to pretend to respect them.

 

The stats-heads at FiveThirtyEight ran a "fantasy draft"-style pick here this week: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-third-ish-2020-democratic-primary-draft-got-weird/

 

This is theoretically whom they think would win the nomination, although it's also about banter with each other so take with a grain of salt. I'm only including this because they scrape the barrel for  candidates to fill it out. The order they picked in:

 

Elizabeth Warren (Massachusetts Senator)

Kamala Harris (California Senator)

Kirsten Gillibrand (NY Senator)

Joe Biden (Former Delaware Sen, VP)

Bernie Sanders (Vermont Senator, etc.)

Cory Booker (New Jersey Senator)

Beto O'Rourke (Texas Senate candidate)

Eric Holder (former Attorney General)

Michael Avenatti (dear God no but Stormy Daniels' lawyer and rising TV personality)

Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota Senator)

Jeff Merkley (Oregon Senator)

John Kasich (Republican Ohio Governor, notably very conservative but anti-Trump. They're getting silly now.)

Sherrod Brown (Ohio Senator, I'd have him a lot higher)

Oprah Winfrey (Oprah)

Mazie Hirono (Hawaii Senator, rightly called bullshit on live TV on a lot the way the GOP ran the Kavenaugh hearings)

John Hickenlooper (Colorado Governor)

Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson (IT DOESN'T MATTER!)

Michelle Obama (they note she's almost certainly not running)

Deval Patrick (former Massachusetts Governor)

John Delaney (back-bench Maryland House Representative)

 Eric Garcetti  (Los Angeles Mayor)

Doug Jones (Alabama Senator, first Democrat to hold a Senate seat from AL in eons)

Jay Inslee (Washington Governor)

Andrew Gillum (Florida Governor candidate)

Mitch Landreu (New Orleans Mayor)

Steve Bullock (Montana Governor)

 

Now I'd take issue with a few things about this order -- I think they have way too many Senators high and many of the governors down low, but please understand when a bunch of people who make their living doing political and sports handicapping (Nate Silver, founder of the site, basically made a fortune on baseball betting using advanced stats before he founded the site) have Michelle below Oprah and the Rock, that's how unlikely this is.

[Watt-Zeefuik]

I think it's highly possible the 2020 nominee is someone none of us know very much about. The closest situation we've been to this recently was 1976, and the nominee was a barely known Governor of Georgia and peanut farmer named Jimmy Carter.

[Sharpie]

I think you made a spelling mistake with one candidate, the Avenatti guy, President Trump the  man with the superior brain power, mentioned him las night, that sleazebag lawyer Aviante. Brought to my attention by Steven Colbert

[Craig Gordons Gloves]

The big orange one  is about 3 miles away from me at MSP airport just now,, he stopped here on his way to Rochester for a wee rally,   so if you switch on the news and see a black SUV with the reg plate HMFC1 burst through the perimeter of the airport and chase air force 1 then it was nice knowing you all

 

 

[Francis Albert]

4 hours ago, ri Alban said:

She has the coolest President ever to help her learn. 

So she has to learn from her husband to help her and in so learning she is a good candidate for President?

Isn't that just a bit insulting to her? And to her sex?

[ri Alban]

1 hour ago, Francis Albert said:

So she has to learn from her husband to help her and in so learning she is a good candidate for President?

Isn't that just a bit insulting to her? And to her sex?

We all learn from experience. All of us.  Arrogance is the downfall of many an individual. 

[Francis Albert]

14 hours ago, ri Alban said:

We all learn from experience. All of us.  Arrogance is the downfall of many an individual. 

True but not much to indicate Michelle is a likely victim of that weakness. Anyway I hope the American flirtation with dynastic politics is over and people wiil be judged on their experience and record not family connections

Edited October 5, 2018 by Francis Albert

[Francis Albert]

Looks like the FBI investigation has been a damp squib in the campaign to stop Kavanaugh.

[Francis Albert]

19 hours ago, Ugly American said:

I think it's highly possible the 2020 nominee is someone none of us know very much about. The closest situation we've been to this recently was 1976, and the nominee was a barely known Governor of Georgia and peanut farmer named Jimmy Carter.

Good news given some of the names touted so far. There must be people without baggage who would easily look principled and competent in a fight with Trump

[Watt-Zeefuik]

17 hours ago, Craig Gordons Gloves said:

The big orange one  is about 3 miles away from me at MSP airport just now,, he stopped here on his way to Rochester for a wee rally,   so if you switch on the news and see a black SUV with the reg plate HMFC1 burst through the perimeter of the airport and chase air force 1 then it was nice knowing you all

 

 

 

I'll start a gofundme for your legal defense and I guarantee you it'll have 10 million in it before dinner time.

 

42 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Good news given some of the names touted so far. There must be people without baggage who would easily look principled and competent in a fight with Trump

 

IMO all depends on how the midterms go. If there's a sizable Democratic majority in the House and maybe a 50-50 Senate, and for once they're not afraid to lay down a strong agenda and brawl for it, then we can run more of a steady hand for the White House, like one of the Western governors.  In any case, right now Kamala Harris would be my pick but it's very, very early yet.

[The Real Maroonblood]

I bet Trumpet is gutted he didn’t get the Nobel Peace Ptize.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

1 hour ago, Francis Albert said:

Looks like the FBI investigation has been a damp squib in the campaign to stop Kavanaugh.

 

In fairness it was a super quick 5 day investigation, so not sure how such a short timeframe could even be considered as being a thorough and complete investigation.

[Kalamazoo Jambo]

5 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

In fairness it was a super quick 5 day investigation, so not sure how such a short timeframe could even be considered as being a thorough and complete investigation.

 

The problem was only partly the timeline. More importantly there were many key players who simply weren't interviewed - apparently at the direction of the White House, who ultimately controlled how much leeway the FBI had in the process. So, the process was a farce, but it's probably not the FBI's fault. Of course, the White House won't actually confirm what direction they gave the FBI.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

14 minutes ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

I bet Trumpet is gutted he didn’t get the Nobel Peace Ptize.

 

Something a bit ironic there don't you think, both recipients are campaigners for the victims of sexual abuse towards women etc etc, whilst Trump is a self confessed perpetrator of sexual abuse.

 

Methinks the right people won the award.

[Kalamazoo Jambo]

Murkowski is a no on Kavanaugh. Flake is a yes. All eyes are now on Collins (who will announce how she intents to vote at 3pm EST today) and Manchin (who has said he won't announce until it's time for the final vote).

 

Ironically, if Kavanaugh does get confirmed, it would be a disaster for the legitimacy of the Supreme Court, but (in my opinion) it would benefit the Democrats in the November elections because of the outrage factor. If Kavanaugh doesn't get appointed, the Republicans will be driven by a sense of resentment and midterms will be a lot closer, as it's largely going to be a question of turnout rather than changing hearts and minds.

 

 

 

[Sharpie]

So Kavanaugh is through succesfully the procedural vote. I again say I think he will be confirmed. Flake will not say no as he has plans to run for President at some time, he cannot displease McConnel etc. Menchin will go against party and vote yes, and Collins will vote yes, the best that could happen is a tie vote, and of course a principled man like Pence will vote no, thats if he is not too busy trying to start a trade and nuclear war with China.

 

I cannot in any way think what is motivating McConnel and the other eighty year olds on the Senate to support Trump the way they are. Have they looked at their birth certificate, drivers licence or other document with their birth date, if they were an item in a supermarket they would see that they have gone past their best used by date. I speak here from experince actual, not hypothetical.

 

 

It is hard to believe that governance in the United States is in such a state of chaos, yes there are some pieces of good news, unemployment figures are excellent, and other successes, but the country is being run by a man who seems to see a mafia type of leadership as a positive. He like many others have used shady business and tax avoidance systems to progress, even the mafia were good for some but ultimately the leadership went too far and were largely brought down, a country cannot afford that to happen.

 

Apologies to those who's names I have mispelled.

Edited October 5, 2018 by bobsharp

[The Real Maroonblood]

20 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

Something a bit ironic there don't you think, both recipients are campaigners for the victims of sexual abuse towards women etc etc, whilst Trump is a self confessed perpetrator of sexual abuse.

 

Methinks the right people won the award.

Agreed.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

2 minutes ago, Kalamazoo Jambo said:

 

The problem was only partly the timeline. More importantly there were many key players who simply weren't interviewed - apparently at the direction of the White House, who ultimately controlled how much leeway the FBI had in the process. So, the process was a farce, but it's probably not the FBI's fault. Of course, the White House won't actually confirm what direction they gave the FBI.

 

It's struck me as something akin to a show trial type of predetermined result following a sham show piece type investigation, the sort of thing which if it had taken place in Iran it would have been condemned by President Orange and his cohorts as being a sham investigation and the result not worthy of being taken seriously etc etc, but because it's been conducted by the FBI (probably with both hands tied behind their backs) and in the good ole US of A then it'll be deemed as being legit, fair and balanced by the Republicans on the hill.

 

However I wonder if this is the defining moment that'll cost the Republicans the mid-terms, I think they'll have lost a very large % of the Woman's vote through this, irrespective whether Kavanaugh has done anything wrong or not, it's the whole process which has shown how much the Republicans on the hill and the President himself hold woman's sensitivities in such low regard.

 

[J.T.F.Robertson]

3 minutes ago, Kalamazoo Jambo said:

Murkowski is a no on Kavanaugh. Flake is a yes. All eyes are now on Collins (who will announce how she intents to vote at 3pm EST today) and Manchin (who has said he won't announce until it's time for the final vote).

 

Ironically, if Kavanaugh does get confirmed, it would be a disaster for the legitimacy of the Supreme Court, but (in my opinion) it would benefit the Democrats in the November elections because of the outrage factor. If Kavanaugh doesn't get appointed, the Republicans will be driven by a sense of resentment and midterms will be a lot closer, as it's largely going to be a question of turnout rather than changing hearts and minds.

 

 

 

 

Putting aside the harassment allegations, his rant during the interview process re the Clintons, coupled with his conspiracy theories involving the Democrats should automatically disqualify him for the position. Is one of the the the main demands of a SCJ not supposedly non-partisanship, (rhetorical) though I suppose he could just have been being overly-emotional,  another negative.

That'll be a lifetime of overly-emotional bias then. (generalisation, but you get my drift)

 

[Maple Leaf]

1 hour ago, Francis Albert said:

Looks like the FBI investigation has been a damp squib in the campaign to stop Kavanaugh.

 

Trump is a self-confessed sexual predator, and the Republicans love him.  There is no way a decades old, unsubstantiated sexual allegation against Kavanaugh was going to deter the Republicans from getting their man onto the SCOTUS.  With the Republicans, it's Party before morality every time.

[J.T.F.Robertson]

18 hours ago, Craig Gordons Gloves said:

The big orange one  is about 3 miles away from me at MSP airport just now,, he stopped here on his way to Rochester for a wee rally,   so if you switch on the news and see a black SUV with the reg plate HMFC1 burst through the perimeter of the airport and chase air force 1 then it was nice knowing you all

 

 

 

A couple of days earlier and we could both have gone out in a blaze of glory. 

 

[Maple Leaf]

4 minutes ago, J.T.F.Robertson said:

 

Putting aside the harassment allegations, his rant during the interview process re the Clintons, coupled with his conspiracy theories involving the Democrats should automatically disqualify him for the position. Is one of the the the main demands of a SCJ not supposedly non-partisanship, (rhetorical) though I suppose he could just have been being overly-emotional,  another negative.

That'll be a lifetime of overly-emotional bias then. (generalisation, but you get my drift)

 

 

If he'd confessed to rape his nomination would have been withdrawn.  Other than that, he was going to get the job.

[Sidelight]

Soros called out.

Coming straight out and calling the tactics of the Democrats in 2018 comparable to the tactics used by the 'Brown Shirts' of Germany in the 1930's, Senator Perdue says what Americans need to hear in 2018 with America torn apart and starving for truth, truth that the mainstream media refuses to give us. CAP.
 

[Kalamazoo Jambo]

1 hour ago, Ugly American said:

 

I'll start a gofundme for your legal defense and I guarantee you it'll have 10 million in it before dinner time.

 

 

IMO all depends on how the midterms go. If there's a sizable Democratic majority in the House and maybe a 50-50 Senate, and for once they're not afraid to lay down a strong agenda and brawl for it, then we can run more of a steady hand for the White House, like one of the Western governors.  In any case, right now Kamala Harris would be my pick but it's very, very early yet.

 

The House should be well within reach for Democrats but the Senate is a real push, especially given the particular set of seats that are up for election this time. I think Heidi Heitkamp is in real trouble as could other Democrats be (especially if Kavanaugh doesn't get confirmed and Republicans are highly motivated),  And even if the Senate goes 50/50, Pence is basically the deciding vote. I just struggle to see Dems getting to 51 in the Senate this year. I really hope I'm wrong.

 

Anyway, Harris 2020 is a good shout and Klobuchar has done well recently too. Landrieu and Gillibrand are other possibilities. I actually had Jason Kander as a long-shot VP candidate but given that he's withdrawn from the Kansas City mayoral race to deal with PTSD from his time in Afghanistan (I sincerely wish the best of luck to him), that doesn't look too likely.

 

So, bluntly, none of us has a clue, and I'm OK with that - for now.

 

[Sharpie]

Flake says he is a yes vote unless something else bigger turns up.

[Watt-Zeefuik]

18 minutes ago, alfajambo said:

Soros called out.

Coming straight out and calling the tactics of the Democrats in 2018 comparable to the tactics used by the 'Brown Shirts' of Germany in the 1930's, Senator Perdue says what Americans need to hear in 2018 with America torn apart and starving for truth, truth that the mainstream media refuses to give us. CAP.
 

 

The Soros allegation is absurd in the extreme -- that hundreds of thousands of women across the country would come forward about their sexual assaults to plead with the Senate to take it serious because they got some paycheck from some central organization, rather than out of their own volition, is beyond ridiculous. Where are the job applications for this? And nobody's had a second thought and come forward with documentation to say, "I got payed by Soros, here's my pay stub?" Do you know what kind of HR effort would be required?

 

That's the absurd thing about these conspiracy theories (see also : Democrats bussing thousands of black voters from Georgia into Alabama to defeat Roy Moore). They are so ridiculously easy to disprove. The notion that this could be happening on this scale all because of one man, who apparently has superpowers of corruption but isn't clever enough to defeat a con man game show host, is pathetic. The only reason it gets any traction is because of anti-Semitism and its rank remnant.

 

Soros' money is quite easy to track. The expenditures are very easy to find. They mostly go to a bunch of garden variety advocacy organizations in DC and a few other large cities that employ a hundred or so young idealistic people who largely just send people like me lots of form fundraising emails for various candidates. It's ineffective and it contributes to the malaise of the Democratic party. It is not, by any means, some kind of shadowy conspiracy capable of stirring up the amount of white-hot raw rage that exists at this intemperate political operative shoved forward for the highest court in the land.

[Watt-Zeefuik]

25 minutes ago, Kalamazoo Jambo said:

 

The House should be well within reach for Democrats but the Senate is a real push, especially given the particular set of seats that are up for election this time. I think Heidi Heitkamp is in real trouble as could other Democrats be (especially if Kavanaugh doesn't get confirmed and Republicans are highly motivated),  And even if the Senate goes 50/50, Pence is basically the deciding vote. I just struggle to see Dems getting to 51 in the Senate this year. I really hope I'm wrong.

 

Anyway, Harris 2020 is a good shout and Klobuchar has done well recently too. Landrieu and Gillibrand are other possibilities. I actually had Jason Kander as a long-shot VP candidate but given that he's withdrawn from the Kansas City mayoral race to deal with PTSD from his time in Afghanistan (I sincerely wish the best of luck to him), that doesn't look too likely.

 

So, bluntly, none of us has a clue, and I'm OK with that - for now.

 

 

Yes, pretty much. The hope, and I emphasize *hope*, is that there are enough Democrats who have been in basically a state of constant disbelief and rage for two years who will turn out in numbers and bring our friends, versus enough Republicans who won't say much but are disappointed enough in this circus that they'll stay home. Turnout is always down in the midterms, so it matters a lot which party turns out and which doesn't.

 

And that's almost impossible for pollsters to figure out ahead of time.