Hard Brexit

[Francis Albert]

1 hour ago, Normthebarman said:

Hard Brexit is looking more likely. Anyone know what the status of EU nationals in the UK would be if that happens? 

They will be fine. The UK has said so from the day after the referendum and has never suggested otherwise. Unfortunately the EU has not reciprocated in relation to the UK nationals in the rest of the EU but instead prioritised the "divorce bill" and exploitation of the Irish border issue under the threat of renewed terrorist action.

Its called "nuanced" negotiation I believe.

[Norm]

9 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

They will be fine. The UK has said so from the day after the referendum and has never suggested otherwise. Unfortunately the EU has not reciprocated in relation to the UK nationals in the rest of the EU but instead prioritised the "divorce bill" and exploitation of the Irish border issue under the threat of renewed terrorist action.

Its called "nuanced" negotiation I believe.

That's what I thought but I saw a snippet that said the legal status would be unclear if no deal. I wasn't sure if the proposed plan relied on a deal. 

[Victorian]

The new Foreign Secretary now briefing against the government.     Might as well carry on the recent tradition.

 

Absolute circus show.

[Ulysses]

4 hours ago, Francis Albert said:

They will be fine. The UK has said so from the day after the referendum and has never suggested otherwise. Unfortunately the EU has not reciprocated in relation to the UK nationals in the rest of the EU but instead prioritised the "divorce bill" and exploitation of the Irish border issue under the threat of renewed terrorist action.

Its called "nuanced" negotiation I believe.

 

The problem with this debate is that the only way that hardliners and right-wingers can "win" the debate is to set up a false premise and then attack it.  The British Government has sought to have the same access to EU 27 markets after Brexit as it had before, while at the same time reducing the access of EU 27 citizens to the UK.  Not unreasonably, the EU 27 has said that if the UK wishes to restrict access for EU 27 citizens, then the EU 27 in return will restrict UK access to EU 27 markets.  The debate is not about whether these restrictions on trade and free movement happen, but about the extent of the restrictions and whether both sides regard them as proportionate to each other.

 

As regards the border issue, the British Government is proposing to unilaterally abrogate a set of agreements on the common travel area between the UK and Ireland that date back to 1923.  If the British Government wishes to do so that is its entitlement, but they needn't expect an open top bus and free bubbly from either Dublin or Brussels in return.

[Ulysses]

Anyway, those who are ITK suggest that the key to a deal lies in the UK letting the EU 27 pretend that the UK's national holiday is May 17th.   

[Francis Albert]

4 hours ago, Ulysses said:

 

The problem with this debate is that the only way that hardliners and right-wingers can "win" the debate is to set up a false premise and then attack it.  The British Government has sought to have the same access to EU 27 markets after Brexit as it had before, while at the same time reducing the access of EU 27 citizens to the UK.  Not unreasonably, the EU 27 has said that if the UK wishes to restrict access for EU 27 citizens, then the EU 27 in return will restrict UK access to EU 27 markets.  The debate is not about whether these restrictions on trade and free movement happen, but about the extent of the restrictions and whether both sides regard them as proportionate to each other.

 

As regards the border issue, the British Government is proposing to unilaterally abrogate a set of agreements on the common travel area between the UK and Ireland that date back to 1923.  If the British Government wishes to do so that is its entitlement, but they needn't expect an open top bus and free bubbly from either Dublin or Brussels in return.

My point was that the UK from day one after the referendum said that EU citizens living in the UK would be free to stay. Not unreasonably the  UK sought reciprocal rights for the smaller numbers of UK citizens living in the rest of the EU. The EU refused such reciprocal assurances as part of its negotiating stance. As of course it is entitled to do. Some might describe that as a hardliners' position I suppose.

 

Edited July 20, 2018 by Francis Albert

[Ulysses]

21 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

My point was that the UK from day one after the referendum said that EU citizens living in the UK would be free to stay. Not unreasonably the  UK sought reciprocal rights for the smaller numbers of UK citizens living in the rest of the EU. The EU refused such reciprocal assurances as part of its negotiating stance. As of course it is entitled to do. Some might describe that as a hardliners' position I suppose.

 

 

It doesn't matter how often you repeat your point.  It's still inaccurate.  The position is that the British Government has offered more limited residency rights for EU 27 citizens than they currently have, while expecting the EU 27 to offer the same freedom of access for trade.  The EU 27 is prepared to give the same rights of residency and access for UK citizens - whether already in the EU 27 or arriving there in the future - as exist right now, in return for full freedom of movement of trade and reciprocal rights for EU 27 citizens in the UK.  So far, the UK is offering more limited rights of residency and access, and less freedom of movement of trade, which is why the EU have offered less in return.  The only exception to that is the the UK Government have claimed that the Common Travel Area with Ireland will remain operational - without properly explaining how they plan for that to happen.

[Francis Albert]

9 hours ago, Ulysses said:

 

It doesn't matter how often you repeat your point.  It's still inaccurate.  The position is that the British Government has offered more limited residency rights for EU 27 citizens than they currently have, while expecting the EU 27 to offer the same freedom of access for trade.  The EU 27 is prepared to give the same rights of residency and access for UK citizens - whether already in the EU 27 or arriving there in the future - as exist right now, in return for full freedom of movement of trade and reciprocal rights for EU 27 citizens in the UK.  So far, the UK is offering more limited rights of residency and access, and less freedom of movement of trade, which is why the EU have offered less in return.  The only exception to that is the the UK Government have claimed that the Common Travel Area with Ireland will remain operational - without properly explaining how they plan for that to happen.

I (perhaps wrongly although I think my reply to you makes my interpretation clear) interpreted Normthebarman's question about  EU nationals in the UK as referring to EU nationals currently living in the UK. I think there is zero chance of these being deported or expelled as a result of Brexit (nor indeed despite the EU's unwillingness to admit the possibility of cakes being had and eaten even to that limited humanitarian extent) do I think there any real risk of UK nationals currently living in the EU being expelled.

What you say about future rights of EU nationals currently in the rest of the EU and UK nationals in the UK reflects accurately the EU position in the negotiations as I understand it.

 

 

Edited July 21, 2018 by Francis Albert

[maroonlegions]

 

 

 

[jake]

1 hour ago, maroonlegions said:

 

 

 

Cutting edge stuff.

[maroonlegions]

21 minutes ago, jake said:

Cutting edge stuff.

More of a piss take than anything else.

[jake]

9 minutes ago, maroonlegions said:

More of a piss take than anything else.

Mate I have no sense of humour when brexit is attacked.

It must be defended.

?

[Ulysses]

Apparently the UK Treasury will instruct officials not to collect duties if there are delays at ports in the event of a no-deal Brexit.  This would mean a loss of tax revenues and the risk of being "soft on tax evasion".  The logic seems to be that it would be better to lose that tax revenue than to lose even more tax revenue by stopping businesses from functioning.   But this also means more Government borrowing or else higher taxes being paid by other businesses and (more likely) people.

 

Financial Times: UK Treasury ready to relax border tax under ‘no deal’ Brexit

[Cade]

The government doesn't even know how many border guards or customs officials there are:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-customs-officers-eu-uk-no-deal-europe-ports-airports-home-office-a8456881.html

 

 

Also today, the EU has said that if the UK wants an extension to the negotiations (the timing of which the UK set by triggering Article 50), they'd only consider it in extreme circumstances, such as a second referendum or a change in government.

 

 

[The Mighty Thor]

The new developing narrative of the Brexiteers that the brexit dividend not being felt for 50 years. 

 

What a shower of fecking shysters.

[jake]

2 hours ago, Cade said:

The government doesn't even know how many border guards or customs officials there are:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-customs-officers-eu-uk-no-deal-europe-ports-airports-home-office-a8456881.html

 

 

Also today, the EU has said that if the UK wants an extension to the negotiations (the timing of which the UK set by triggering Article 50), they'd only consider it in extreme circumstances, such as a second referendum or a change in government.

 

 

No doubt a shambles.

But saying as this thread is about brexit then it's worth noting that German politics is on the cusp of real upheaval and indeed at crisis levels.

With the far right dictating mainstream.

Europe is about to shut it's borders.

Funnily enough brexit may see the UK as more tolerant and welcoming than those on the continent.

 

?

[jake]

3 hours ago, Ulysses said:

Apparently the UK Treasury will instruct officials not to collect duties if there are delays at ports in the event of a no-deal Brexit.  This would mean a loss of tax revenues and the risk of being "soft on tax evasion".  The logic seems to be that it would be better to lose that tax revenue than to lose even more tax revenue by stopping businesses from functioning.   But this also means more Government borrowing or else higher taxes being paid by other businesses and (more likely) people.

 

Financial Times: UK Treasury ready to relax border tax under ‘no deal’ Brexit

Hopefully mean cheaper fags for us chavvies who voted brexit.

?

[Ulysses]

46 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

The new developing narrative of the Brexiteers that the brexit dividend not being felt for 50 years. 

 

What a shower of fecking shysters.

 

 

This the self-serving patriot Rees-Mogg again?

 

In other news, he's opening a second financial fund based in Ireland.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/22/jacob-rees-mogg-second-irish-fund-scm

 

 

[Ulysses]

^^^^

 

I dunno if the last few letters of that link should say "scm" or "scam". 

[Boab1874]

The UK has 24 trade deals alone and 64 with EU. All will be lost after brexit.i support E U over U K so don’t blame me when it all blows up.

[The Mighty Thor]

1 hour ago, Ulysses said:

 

 

This the self-serving patriot Rees-Mogg again?

 

In other news, he's opening a second financial fund based in Ireland.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/22/jacob-rees-mogg-second-irish-fund-scm

 

 

Tis indeed. 

To be fair he appears to be the main player now anyway, he's certainly working Treeza from the back whilst manoeuvring like minded people into place for when they finally politically euthanise May and put the hapless bint out her misery.

[The Mighty Thor]

New Brexit minister that no one had ever heard of, who has been subsequently replaced at the negotiations by strong and stable herself, has refused to confirm that the UK government is stockpiling food and medicines for after 29th March next year. 

 

Was that written on the other side of Boris' battle bus? 

[Boris]

I found this a rather interesting, but depressing read.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-eu-negotiator-europe-euratom-airline-safety-negotiations-theresa-may-worse-anyone-guessed-a7858586.html

 

 

[jambo lodge]

1 hour ago, Boris said:

I found this a rather interesting, but depressing read.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-eu-negotiator-europe-euratom-airline-safety-negotiations-theresa-may-worse-anyone-guessed-a7858586.html

 

 

Makes you wonder how we all managed to exist before the EU. Reminds me of the millenial scare stories.

[Boris]

13 minutes ago, jambo lodge said:

Makes you wonder how we all managed to exist before the EU. Reminds me of the millenial scare stories.

 

Prior to the EU we were probably signatories of agreements and that sort of worked.  Also, the world has changed a bit since pre-1973!

 

The crux of the article that is very frightening is this Governments inability to do anything!  They are burying their head in the sand.

[jambo lodge]

10 minutes ago, Boris said:

 

Prior to the EU we were probably signatories of agreements and that sort of worked.  Also, the world has changed a bit since pre-1973!

 

The crux of the article that is very frightening is this Governments inability to do anything!  They are burying their head in the sand.

So we cant buy food or medicine from countries that don't belong to the cartel that is the EU. Problem with EU officials is they cannot even think about life out of the EU because they are so indoctrinated.

[Victorian]

15 minutes ago, Boris said:

 

Prior to the EU we were probably signatories of agreements and that sort of worked.  Also, the world has changed a bit since pre-1973!

 

The crux of the article that is very frightening is this Governments inability to do anything!  They are burying their head in the sand.

 

This has been evident for some time.    Indicated by having to stage a set-piece Cabinet summit at Chequers to 'agree' to something that was later described as a strategy.     Impotent against the reality that the real power brokers do not occupy a Cabinet position.     The 'strategy' to be quickly ripped up for arse paper,  re-hashed, re-worded.

 

A subsequent indicator is the comments of Dominic Raab.     Holder of the job title Secretary for leaving the EU.      (Paraphrased) The onus is on the EU to compromise,  suggest solutions, mske offers.      This is a cast iron giveaway of a government depleted of ideas.     A white flag of surrender.     We have nothing left.     We are powerless to proceed with a strategy that will not be challenged and scrapped from enemies within.      The ball's in your court.      Please help us out of the quagmire we put ourselves in and dragged you into.

[Boris]

9 minutes ago, jambo lodge said:

So we cant buy food or medicine from countries that don't belong to the cartel that is the EU. Problem with EU officials is they cannot even think about life out of the EU because they are so indoctrinated.

 

No, I don't think that is the issue.  It's going to take longer for products to get into the country due to the chaos that will be ports due to customs bureaucracy.

 

Euroatom, and the airlines and air safety is pretty messed up.  

[jambo lodge]

11 minutes ago, Boris said:

 

No, I don't think that is the issue.  It's going to take longer for products to get into the country due to the chaos that will be ports due to customs bureaucracy.

 

Euroatom, and the airlines and air safety is pretty messed up.  

Products from Australia, New Zealand, Africa have been imported for many years without difficulty. We have world class nuclear scientists and the EU countries will still want to access their expertise. As for aviation, several thousand aircraft per day go from Europe over our airspace to the USA, I'm sure that a mutually beneficial agreement regarding air travel will be found just in time. The most profitable routes for airlines are the transatlantic ones.  

[Boris]

3 minutes ago, jambo lodge said:

Products from Australia, New Zealand, Africa have been imported for many years without difficulty. We have world class nuclear scientists and the EU countries will still want to access their expertise. As for aviation, several thousand aircraft per day go from Europe over our airspace to the USA, I'm sure that a mutually beneficial agreement regarding air travel will be found just in time. The most profitable routes for airlines are the transatlantic ones.  

 

Did you read the article?

 

 

[Francis Albert]

5 minutes ago, jambo lodge said:

Products from Australia, New Zealand, Africa have been imported for many years without difficulty. We have world class nuclear scientists and the EU countries will still want to access their expertise. As for aviation, several thousand aircraft per day go from Europe over our airspace to the USA, I'm sure that a mutually beneficial agreement regarding air travel will be found just in time. The most profitable routes for airlines are the transatlantic ones.  

The Irish Prime Minister's threat of a "no fly zone" over Ireland has been one of the more ridiculous "Project Fear" claims. And that's saying something.

Edited July 26, 2018 by Francis Albert

[jambo lodge]

1 minute ago, Boris said:

 

Did you read the article?

 

 

I certainly did, that one and many more. I also read a blog from a UK farmer last night tearing apart the scare stories of food shortages.

[Boris]

1 minute ago, jambo lodge said:

I certainly did, that one and many more. I also read a blog from a UK farmer last night tearing apart the scare stories of food shortages.

 

Well, that's good to hear about the scran!  Could you link to that?

 

Still, open skies, what's going to happen there?  Or the safety certs for the planes? 

[Francis Albert]

I see we are being lectured on politics by Gary Lineker now. It was bad enough having to see him advertising crisps. "Did anyone vote for this mess?". Well no. The Leave voters probably assumed a level of competence and serious intent to deliver Leave in those negotiating a post-Brexit deal. Instead we have Europhiles like Olly Robbins and Remain supporters in Governmment and the Civil Service running the show

[jambo lodge]

4 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

The Irish Prime Minister's threat of a "no fly zone" over Ireland has been one of the more ridiculous "Project Fear" claims. And that's saying something.

Correct, that's when I first looked for a quote of how many planes fly over the UK each day to the States. 

[jambo lodge]

2 minutes ago, Boris said:

 

Well, that's good to hear about the scran!  Could you link to that?

 

Still, open skies, what's going to happen there?  Or the safety certs for the planes? 

Will try and find it on Twitter, my son showed me it. There will need to be a deal on aircraft or all with ground to a halt....not even the EU would contemplate that.

[Francis Albert]

2 hours ago, Boris said:

I found this a rather interesting, but depressing read.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-eu-negotiator-europe-euratom-airline-safety-negotiations-theresa-may-worse-anyone-guessed-a7858586.html

 

 

Reads like a truly "Independent" view!

[Boris]

Just now, jambo lodge said:

Will try and find it on Twitter, my son showed me it. There will need to be a deal on aircraft or all with ground to a halt....not even the EU would contemplate that.

 

You think?

 

Everything re routes via Schipol, or CDG or Frankfurt?

 

Not sure they'd be too bothered...

[jambo lodge]

4 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

I see we are being lectured on politics by Gary Lineker now. It was bad enough having to see him advertising crisps. "Did anyone vote for this mess?". Well no. The Leave voters probably assumed a level of competence and serious intent to deliver Leave in those negotiating a post-Brexit deal. Instead we have Europhiles like Olly Robbins and Remain supporters in Governmment and the Civil Service running the show

He does work for the BBC so perhaps his views are not a surprise.  

[Boris]

Just now, Francis Albert said:

Reads like a truly "Independent" view!

 

Well, it is an opinion piece from one of the UK negotiators, so will have some bias, yet given their position, I'd accept their words pretty much.

 

 

[jambo lodge]

1 minute ago, Boris said:

 

You think?

 

Everything re routes via Schipol, or CDG or Frankfurt?

 

Not sure they'd be too bothered...

They couldn't put at risk 3000 plus flights per day being banned from UK airspace if there is no deal. 

[Boris]

2 minutes ago, jambo lodge said:

He does work for the BBC so perhaps his views are not a surprise.  

 

It's amazing how people view the BBC.  Surprised GL hasn't been given the tin tac!

[Boris]

1 minute ago, jambo lodge said:

They couldn't put at risk 3000 plus flights per day being banned from UK airspace if there is no deal. 

 

I'm sure they could re route?

[jambo lodge]

4 minutes ago, Boris said:

 

I'm sure they could re route?

Apart from extra cost not sure the air traffic control infrastructure elsewhere could cope with 3000 extra flights per day.

[Francis Albert]

7 minutes ago, Boris said:

 

Well, it is an opinion piece from one of the UK negotiators, so will have some bias, yet given their position, I'd accept their words pretty much.

 

 

Presumably a former UK negotiator. Unless they are free to undermine the UK negotiating position without even bothering to do so through a third party.

[Francis Albert]

7 minutes ago, Boris said:

 

I'm sure they could re route?

That people are so desperate as to invent this fantasy of a post-Brexit UK being subject to a total air embargo with the rest of the world suggests there might still be a small chance of the voters getting what they voted for.

[Boris]

 

13 minutes ago, jambo lodge said:

They couldn't put at risk 3000 plus flights per day being banned from UK airspace if there is no deal. 

 

6 minutes ago, jambo lodge said:

Apart from extra cost not sure the air traffic control infrastructure elsewhere could cope with 3000 extra flights per day.

 

2 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

That people are so desperate as to invent this fantasy of a post-Brexit UK being subject to a total air embargo with the rest of the world suggests there might still be a small chance of the voters getting what they voted for.

 

I may have misinterpreted the Air thing - air space is fine, is it not, but flights from EU couldn't land in UK then go onward to US as no agreement in place?  In other words, would the UK have agreements in place at Brexit d-day?

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

 

[Boris]

 

4 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

 

4 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

 

You tend to fly into uk get off plane and then get on another plane to go to the US. We’re not going to stop people entering and leaving UK!

 

 Whilst I could expand on the answer and I suspect your next question.It’s maybe best to move on accept maybe misinterpreted or misunderstood. 

 

I agree some of the stuff link is concerning but not unknown and not really evidence of anything imo.

 

So what's the deal with these air deals then?  Why are they seen as a stumbling block?

[Boris]

2 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

 

There is a central ECAA which governs a central standard for the EU and a number of non - EU countries. Technically we leave the EU we leave this.

 

Now we can re-join the very minute after we leave. However, that would require us to accept a variety of standard (which should t be a issue) the issue comes around the acceptance of certain EU law to do. Something that some may argue that is not acceptable but that’s more a political football. There are also another number of ways to resolve the issue bi-lateral agreements, ,just do what the US or revert previous treaties which remain. 

 

As you can imagine this isn’t ideal and airlines don’t want to deal with risk/hassle of unknown. So they are very likely to hedge bets and go to somewhere where that is not a issue EasyJet for example of now set up in Europe in an attempt to get round the regs from memory its to do with ownership location. I think some of the other airlines may be doing similar.

 

So flying isn’t a issue as such imo (unless a catrisohic **** up down the line) it’s more the impact on business and as such potentially jobs etc. The issues get slightly more complicated due to a bit of a turf war in Europe. A lot of EU national airline got hit badly by rise of low cost airlines and they may be able to use the opportunity but I don’t know about that if honest.

 

The truth of the matter is as with most thing there is a will in parties to sort this out except maybe politicians lol. Business demands it though!!!

 

Anyway common sense will kick we will still be able to go on holidays. I suspect it will have a economic impact which won’t be good but I suspect that in general about brexit ?

 

It’s not an area I know that much about my knowledge is coming from some conversations with someone who is involved in this. So I may have got a few of the finer details wrong. However, hopefully get the gist.

 

i need to stop with the long posts!!

 

Appreciate the reply LBJ

 

Cheers!

[jake]

Air deals cheap fags etc .

 

Is this what we are selling out for?

 

So we can be governed undemocratically?