Brexit Deal agreed ( updated )

[SE16 3LN]

7 minutes ago, alfajambo said:

I know what you mean, but remember its just is a message board, a medium where a person’s insecurities are often amplified. And sticks are often incorrectly held.

Agreed

[Ulysses]

58 minutes ago, SE16 3LN said:

You took one sentence to change the meaning and then attempted to take the piss. Its a small minded game for a small minded man. Do one

 

I nailed it, and I wasn't taking the piss.  You're well capable of figuring out what the writer was on about if you want, but you're just not going to bother because that would require you to challenge your own assumptions. Your rude and childish comment above sums your view up perfectly. 

 

Others will get past that and put in an effort to understand differing perspectives, even if you won't. 

[Pans Jambo]

This "backstop" is starting to fry my wee brain.

 

So I get that the Backstop is the position of last resort after the UK eventually leaves the EU in relation to what happens at the border between the UK and the EU (N.I. & Ireland) but what EXACTLY does that look like in reality?

 

Both saying there should be no hard border (I think most sensible people would agree with that) but how will they account for the movement of goods, services and people between Northern Ireland and Eire (UK & EU) without physical checks etc.?

 

I read that the EU have suggested that N.I. remain (in some part) in the customs union but the DUP & the UK Govt dont want N.I. to be treated any differently to the UK.

 

Can someone put this down in writing on this thread what the **** is going on for the layman?

 

The right wing tory & UKIP liars really have made an arse of this whole Brexit thing.

[Mikey1874]

4 minutes ago, Pans Jambo said:

This "backstop" is starting to fry my wee brain.

 

So I get that the Backstop is the position of last resort after the UK eventually leaves the EU in relation to what happens at the border between the UK and the EU (N.I. & Ireland) but what EXACTLY does that look like in reality?

 

Both saying there should be no hard border (I think most sensible people would agree with that) but how will they account for the movement of goods, services and people between Northern Ireland and Eire (UK & EU) without physical checks etc.?

 

I read that the EU have suggested that N.I. remain (in some part) in the customs union but the DUP & the UK Govt dont want N.I. to be treated any differently to the UK.

 

Can someone put this down in writing on this thread what the **** is going on for the layman?

 

The right wing tory & UKIP liars really have made an arse of this whole Brexit thing.

 

There will NOT under any circumstances be a Hard Border (NI Peace Deal, practicalities etc). 

 

BUT in the world of laws, procedures there needs to be a formal, legal framework to confirm that. 

[Mikey1874]

Confirmed vote on Deal will be next year. 

[JyTees]

8 hours ago, ri Alban said:

Maybe you're the problem. Up your game .

 

True to form NAT desciple. Deny, deflect then reapportion blame. 

 

They'd be so proud. Bravo ?

[Pans Jambo]

2 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

There will NOT under any circumstances be a Hard Border (NI Peace Deal, practicalities etc). 

 

BUT in the world of laws, procedures there needs to be a formal, legal framework to confirm that. 

I know that mate but whats the alternative plan? That is essentially what I am asking.

[Mikey1874]

8 minutes ago, Pans Jambo said:

I know that mate but whats the alternative plan? That is essentially what I am asking.

 

There isn't an alternative.

 

Seems some sort of wording to say Backstop won't happen or would need extra approvals including by Parliament.

 

But the problem is it could happen. Because EU can use the Backstop to get everything it wants. 

 

Deal has no chance of being approved. Then in 'No Deal' situation it will be proved Backstop isn't needed because there will never by a Hard Border. And everyone will say "you lied". 

Edited December 13, 2018 by Mikey1874

[Shanks said no]

11 minutes ago, Pans Jambo said:

I know that mate but whats the alternative plan? That is essentially what I am asking.

You are not alone, I too don’t get it.

 

for example, a plane load of EU citizens get off in Dublin. When will there passports be checked if they head for mainland UK?

[Pans Jambo]

6 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

There isn't an alternative.

 

Seems some sort of wording to say Backstop won't happen or would need extra approvals including by Parliament.

 

But the problem is it could happen. Because EU can use the Backstop to get everything it wants. 

 

Deal has no chance of being approved. Then in 'No Deal' situation it will be proved Backstop isn't needed because there will never by a Hard Border. And everyone will say "you lied". 

I thought so...a cluster feck!

[Pans Jambo]

Just now, The Frenchman Returns said:

You are not alone, I too don’t get it.

 

for example, a plane load of EU citizens get off in Dublin. When will there passports be checked if they head for mainland UK?

It's just getting silly now.

[Mikey1874]

Government will publish its immigration plans next week. 

[Cade]

1 hour ago, Mikey1874 said:

Government will publish its immigration plans next week. 

That'll just be a post-it note with "kick em out" written on it

[Martin_T]

14 minutes ago, Cade said:

That'll just be a post-it note with "kick em out" written on it

 

Despite 'em being largely responsible for filling labour market shortages in agriculture, manufacturing and service and hospitality.

 

 

[mutley]

30 minutes ago, Martin_T said:

 

Despite 'em being largely responsible for filling labour market shortages in agriculture, manufacturing and service and hospitality.

 

 

I can’t wait for a post Brexit meal when the kitchens are staffed by the previously unemployable instead of hard working eu nationals ?

[jake]

30 minutes ago, mutley said:

I can’t wait for a post Brexit meal when the kitchens are staffed by the previously unemployable instead of hard working eu nationals ?

My god.

[jake]

But who will clean our toilets they wail?

?

[Pans Jambo]

No doubt it'll be a "points based" immigration policy similar to Australia's.

 

I dont think the Oz's are particularly happy with their immigration policy either.

 

If we do "free trade deals" with the likes of India, Saudi Arabia, Brazil & South Africa etc. Will there not be a free movement of people (or similar) clause inserted into it?

 

So we wont have to put up with poles, French students and those pesky Germans any more but...

[Governor Tarkin]

9 minutes ago, jake said:

But who will clean our toilets they wail?

?

 

The second worst job I ever had, Jake, was cleaning the toilets on a camp site in Biot on the cote d'azur.

 

Works both ways.

[Governor Tarkin]

5 minutes ago, Pans Jambo said:

No doubt it'll be a "points based" immigration policy similar to Australia's.

 

I dont think the Oz's are particularly happy with their immigration policy either.

 

If we do "free trade deals" with the likes of India, Saudi Arabia, Brazil & South Africa etc. Will there not be a free movement of people (or similar) clause inserted into it?

 

So we wont have to put up with poles, French students and those pesky Germans any more but...

 

We won't see much of a change in terms of absolute numbers post Brexit.

 

Those pesky capitalists are going to need their cheap and plentiful labour even more in the race to the bottom they've just convinced us to vote ourselves into.

 

Folk who voted for Brexit on an anti immigration ticket have been unashamedly hoodwinked.

[Pans Jambo]

5 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

We won't see much of a change in terms of absolute numbers post Brexit.

 

Those pesky capitalists are going to need their cheap and plentiful labour even more in the race to the bottom they've just convinced us to vote ourselves into.

 

Folk who voted for Brexit on an anti immigration ticket have been unashamedly hoodwinked.

Thats so true. If it was middle England worried about brown/black folk coming to these shores I can tell you theres not too many of those that came from Lithuania.

My neighbour is Polish. Pays a mortgage. He has a management role in Edinburgh Council where I assume he pays PAYE & his wife works full time as a dental assistant. Such a strain on our economy and public services eh?

I visit many customers of mine who are "food packers" (soft fruit, ready meals, meat & fish processing etc) who are already struggling to get bodies to stand on a production line all day and process/pack food. Shiting themselves for the future as they can't give the jobs away to the locals. I'm talking about dozens of factories all over Scotland who need thousands of people to do the work. The younsters just dont want to do it for the minimum wage and I can understand that but it kind of takes away the theory of the Poles etc. "coming here and stealing our jobs".

 

Perhaps they will pay a couple of pounds an hour more and make standing on a production line putting lettuce on a sandwich  all day more appealing.

Edited December 13, 2018 by Pans Jambo

[Francis Albert]

3 minutes ago, Pans Jambo said:

Thats so true. If it was middle England worried about brown/black folk coming to these shores I can tell you theres not too many of those that came from Lithuania.

My neighbour is Polish. Pays a mortgage. He has a management role in Edinburgh Council where I assume he pays PAYE & his wife works full time as a dental assistant. Such a strain on our economy and public services eh?

I visit many customers of mine who are "food packers" (soft fruit, ready meals, meat & fish processing etc) who are already struggling to get bodies to stand on a production line all day and process/pack food. Shiting themselves for the future as they can't give the jobs away to the locals. I'm talking about dozens of factories all over Scotland who need thousands of people to do the work. The younsters just dont want to do it for the minimum wage and I can understand that but it kind of takes away the theory of the Poles etc. "coming here and stealing our jobs".

 

Perhaps they will pay a couple of pounds an hour more and make standing on a production line putting lettuce on a sandwich  all day more appealing.

Doesn't your last sentence kind of make the point about Poles stealing jobs? They are willing to work for lower pay than Scots youngsters. Which is great for them and great for their employers. Not so great for Scots yoingsters.

[Shanks said no]

26 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

The second worst job I ever had, Jake, was cleaning the toilets on a camp site in Biot on the cote d'azur.

 

Works both ways.

I’ll bite

what was the worst?

[Pans Jambo]

Just now, Francis Albert said:

Doesn't your last sentence kind of make the point about Poles stealing jobs? They are willing to work for lower pay than Scots youngsters. Which is great for them and great for their employers. Not so great for Scots yoingsters.

I can see your point but the Government set the minimum rates of pay that the businesses are legally allowed to offer. Its not the person who works there's fault and if Scots dont want to do the work then who will? These jobs are offered to the public, they can only hire those willing to apply.

 

I believe the minimum rate of pay should be around £10 an hour or more and perhaps Brexit will push this up closer to that however; some of the work I am talking about is soul destroying repetitive and mundane. The locals just dont want to do it so the Poles etc are actually providing a service (which allows us to buy cheap sandwiches in the Co-op/Spar etc) 

[Governor Tarkin]

1 minute ago, The Frenchman Returns said:

I’ll bite

what was the worst?

 

Cleaning the women's shower block on the same campsite.

[Francis Albert]

31 minutes ago, Pans Jambo said:

No doubt it'll be a "points based" immigration policy similar to Australia's.

 

I dont think the Oz's are particularly happy with their immigration policy either.

 

If we do "free trade deals" with the likes of India, Saudi Arabia, Brazil & South Africa etc. Will there not be a free movement of people (or similar) clause inserted into it?

 

So we wont have to put up with poles, French students and those pesky Germans any more but...

Free trade agreements do not necessarily or even normally involve free movement. An EU free trade agreement with Japan or China or India will not give the populace of these countries the right to live and work in the EU.

 

[Pans Jambo]

Just now, Francis Albert said:

Free trade agreements do not necessarily or even normally involve free movement. An EU free trade agreement with Japan or China or India will not give the populace of these countries the right to live and work in the EU.

 

Yes I probably phrased that incorrectly. Not the general populace but if these countries are dealing with us on trade then that will mean people from those countries will be coming here to work as no doubt companies from these countries will set up here and UK companies will set up there (its the nature of trade). The workers will bring their families and BOOM! Brown faces everywhere and Nigel Farrage & his supporters going apeshit!

 

Immigration & "control of our borders" is a big red herring. We have always been able to control our borders its just that the UK government chose to have a shit immigration policy and did nothing to deal with the thousands that are already here!

 

I personally know of a Zimbabwean national who has been here for 18 years. Has a N.I. number and pays income tax. the UK government know that person is here but because she pays tax they dont care.

 

They lied about immigration.

 

The fact is foreigners in Scotland CONTRIBUTE more to society than they take out but dont let the truth get in UKIP's way.

 

[Francis Albert]

36 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

We won't see much of a change in terms of absolute numbers post Brexit.

 

Those pesky capitalists are going to need their cheap and plentiful labour even more in the race to the bottom they've just convinced us to vote ourselves into.

 

Folk who voted for Brexit on an anti immigration ticket have been unashamedly hoodwinked.

People who voted for Brexit on an anti immigration ticket were voting against the German chancellor having the right to decide who has the right of freedom of movement to the UK. The biggest by far effect of the Brexit vote has  been to rebalance net immigration towards those from less white parts of the world.

I haven't seeen too many Leavers objecting.

Edited December 13, 2018 by Francis Albert

[Pans Jambo]

Genuine question.

 

Does anyone on here personally know (I am talking about seen first hand) of anyone who didn't get a job because of a Non-Scot was willing to do it for less money, or lost a job they had because a non-Scot was willing to undercut them?

 

Or, who couldnt get a doctors appointment because the waiting room was full of foreigners?

 

Or who's kids couldnt get a place in the local school because lots of non-english speaking kids took up all the placements?

 

Edited December 13, 2018 by Pans Jambo

[Governor Tarkin]

2 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

People who voted for Brexit on an anti immigration ticket were voting against the German chancellor having the right to decide who has the right of freedom of movement to the UK. The biggest by far egfect of the Brexit vote has  been to rebalance net immigration towards those from less white parts of the world.

I haven't seeen too many Leavers objecting.

 

The term 'leave voters' encompasses a diverse demographic.

In order to force your point your giving swathes of it too much credit.

[Cade]

17 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Free trade agreements do not necessarily or even normally involve free movement. An EU free trade agreement with Japan or China or India will not give the populace of these countries the right to live and work in the EU.

 

Last week, Japan changed their constitution and relaxed immigration laws to allow more overseas workers in.

Then they signed a trade deal with the EU.

 

Join ze dots.

 

 

[Francis Albert]

2 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

The term 'leave voters' encompasses a diverse demographic.

In order to force your point your giving swathes of it too much credit.

I didn' t say all leave voters. Leave voters are demonised as thick racists without any attempt at discriminaton.

[Francis Albert]

2 minutes ago, Cade said:

Last week, Japan changed their constitution and relaxed immigration laws to allow more overseas workers in.

Then they signed a trade deal with the EU.

 

Join ze dots.

 

 

And how free is the freedom of movement to Japan?

[Governor Tarkin]

1 minute ago, Francis Albert said:

I didn' t say all leave voters. Leave voters are demonised as thick racists without any attempt at discriminaton.

 

Yeh, I should've been clearer in my original post but my point stands.

 

Those who opted to leave because they want to see less Johnny Foreigners around (and I know a few) were cynically courted by a Leave campaign that knew fine that there would be no appreciable long-term change to the number of Johnny Foreigners around whether out of the EU or not.

[JimKongUno]

9 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

And how free is the freedom of movement to Japan?

 

They havnt joined the EU just a trade agreement so i dont think they'll have to worry about 10 million poles flying in to clean their toilets just yet

[Martin_T]

11 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

I didn' t say all leave voters. Leave voters are demonised as thick racists without any attempt at discriminaton.

 

Just as well you voted remain, so can't be accused of that.

[Martin_T]

Genuine question, is there any evidence of wage deflation caused by EU migrants? I know that Scotland has in the past openly appealed for people to come here because we can't fill all our vacancies.

 

Again I can only re-iterate that I am a pragmatist, not an ideologue. The obvious consequence of labour market shortages, is either an inability to supply the given service, or alternatively wage inflation, with a knock on effect of increasing the cost of the underlying goods and services. Either way the poorest in society is negatively affected the most.

 

 

[Francis Albert]

14 minutes ago, Martin_T said:

 

Just as well you voted remain, so can't be accused of that.

So if I had voted Leave I would be fair game?

[Francis Albert]

6 minutes ago, Martin_T said:

Genuine question, is there any evidence of wage deflation caused by EU migrants? I know that Scotland has in the past openly appealed for people to come here because we can't fill all our vacancies.

 

Again I can only re-iterate that I am a pragmatist, not an ideologue. The obvious consequence of labour market shortages, is either an inability to supply the given service, or alternatively wage inflation, with a knock on effect of increasing the cost of the underlying goods and services. Either way the poorest in society is negatively affected the most.

 

 

The poorest might just gain from wage inflation driven by inflation of the lowest wages.

 

And you assume low wages necessarily flow through to low prices? I am not sure that is how it works. Just by observing the price of a cup of coffee in Starbucks I have my doubts.

[Francis Albert]

3 hours ago, Cade said:

That'll just be a post-it note with "kick em out" written on it

It won't.

[Martin_T]

17 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

The poorest might just gain from wage inflation driven by inflation of the lowest wages.

 

And you assume low wages necessarily flow through to low prices? I am not sure that is how it works. Just by observing the price of a cup of coffee in Starbucks I have my doubts.

 

Wage inflation rarely exceeds price inflation IIRC.

[Francis Albert]

9 minutes ago, Martin_T said:

 

Wage inflation rarely exceeds price inflation IIRC.

Quite. My point really.

[Mikey1874]

1 hour ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

We won't see much of a change in terms of absolute numbers post Brexit.

 

Those pesky capitalists are going to need their cheap and plentiful labour even more in the race to the bottom they've just convinced us to vote ourselves into.

 

Folk who voted for Brexit on an anti immigration ticket have been unashamedly hoodwinked.

 

I'm less up to date but certainly peak period including David Cameron government half of all new jobs were taken by immigrants. So there weren't UK workers available to take half of all new jobs created. 

[AlphonseCapone]

What an absolute mess. May's little venture to Europe today is a waste of time, the EU have been unequivocal, there will be no changes to the legality of the backstop. 

 

She's playing a game here whereby the vote has been delayed while she pretends she might get something from Europe on the backstop, despite the DUP and many other Brexiteers saying the backstop either must go or the UK must be able to unilaterally leave, so as to run down the clock and make it a game of chicken whereby the meaningful vote really does become her deal or no deal. 

 

Except parliament won't accept no deal so they'd need to ask to extend article 50. The can gets kicked down the road. 

 

I am predicting 5 key votes next year; meaningful vote in Parliament, no confidence vote in Parliament, Tory leadership vote, General Election and Scottish Independence vote. 

[Mikey1874]

41 minutes ago, Martin_T said:

Genuine question, is there any evidence of wage deflation caused by EU migrants? I know that Scotland has in the past openly appealed for people to come here because we can't fill all our vacancies.

 

Again I can only re-iterate that I am a pragmatist, not an ideologue. The obvious consequence of labour market shortages, is either an inability to supply the given service, or alternatively wage inflation, with a knock on effect of increasing the cost of the underlying goods and services. Either way the poorest in society is negatively affected the most.

 

 

 

Generally evidence suggests there can be an affect locally but overall not. 

 

But there is another issue - low paid jobs which cheap labour can supply versus investing in technology and other productivity measures which increase wages. 

[JudyJudyJudy]

4 hours ago, Mikey1874 said:

Government will publish its immigration plans next week. 

it will appease the Brexit mob by stating " those with a Brown skin" will find it much more difficult to gain entry to the UK.....

 

4 hours ago, Mikey1874 said:

Government will publish its immigration plans next week. 

 

[Francis Albert]

9 minutes ago, AlphonseCapone said:

What an absolute mess. May's little venture to Europe today is a waste of time, the EU have been unequivocal, there will be no changes to the legality of the backstop. 

 

She's playing a game here whereby the vote has been delayed while she pretends she might get something from Europe on the backstop, despite the DUP and many other Brexiteers saying the backstop either must go or the UK must be able to unilaterally leave, so as to run down the clock and make it a game of chicken whereby the meaningful vote really does become her deal or no deal. 

 

Except parliament won't accept no deal so they'd need to ask to extend article 50. The can gets kicked down the road. 

 

I am predicting 5 key votes next year; meaningful vote in Parliament, no confidence vote in Parliament, Tory leadership vote, General Election and Scottish Independence vote. 

Is there any evidence that the 27 would be willing to extend Article 50. Ien't seem any

One think that strikes me about the whole parliamentary  debate and indeed beyond parliament is that in some way the UK has sovereign control of the outcome. For example the idea that a UK general election and a Corbyn government would be able to negotiate a better deal is surely pure fantasy.

[JudyJudyJudy]

on meeting a Polish person who doesnt work in Edinburgh !

[Francis Albert]

14 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Generally evidence suggests there can be an affect locally but overall not. 

 

But there is another issue - low paid jobs which cheap labour can supply versus investing in technology and other productivity measures which increase wages. 

Indeed. One of the key failings of the UK economy for most of the last 70 years. Which membership of the EU has exacerbated rather than addressed. After all why invest in a domestic car industry when you can just import cars from the rest of the EU? 

[AlphonseCapone]

6 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Is there any evidence that the 27 would be willing to extend Article 50. Ien't seem any

One think that strikes me about the whole parliamentary  debate and indeed beyond parliament is that in some way the UK has sovereign control of the outcome. For example the idea that a UK general election and a Corbyn government would be able to negotiate a better deal is surely pure fantasy.

 

I don't know if they would, that's why I said they'd need to ask. Depending how the EU want to play it they would be within their rights to say no and ramp up the accept May's deal, revoke article 50 or no deal choice. 

 

I agree there isn't a better deal to be had if the UK sticks to its current red lines. 

 

It genuinely feels like unfixable situation. I can only see melt down at Westminster in the coming year.