Brexit Deal agreed ( updated )

[ri Alban]

9 hours ago, Pans Jambo said:

Im smelling proper fear & desperation on this thread. The unionists are shitting it. 
 

Now praying they dont loose Brexit as its not going as Boris planned, & now trying to change the rules on a Scottish independence referendum. 
 

2 completely different things & in any case, it was Cameron’s fault for pushing a simple Yes/No referendum on Brexit before knowing any of the details on how it would look. At least the Scottish version will have some kind of roadmap. No doubt that’ll be open to interpretation but its better than a fantasy plastered on the side of a bus. 

 

Anyway, the smell of unionists arses collapsing on here is a beautiful thing. 

Let them have their changes. 60%, Remain/leave. But they'll have to give the SNP one of their own. Scots only!

[Montgomery Brewster]

10 hours ago, JackLadd said:

 

It should be a min of 66% to take us out of a 300 year old union and not up to a 1% margin that might well consist of 16 y/o kids who can't vote otherwise and have no property or careers to lose. 

 

I really don't see us holding many aces in a break up to make England roll over. It's going to be extremely painful for us on some new currency, reduced budgets, start up costs and higher interest rate borrowing. Money and business will flood out of Scotland and there will be nothing the SNP can do about it. Best case for them is on the Euro quick and vassal status in Brussels ala Finland. 

Money and business will flood out of Scotland - what absolute nonsense.

 

ireland with a smaller population and lower amounts of natural resources is doing very well. 
 

It’s time people living  in Scotland Got off their knees and stopped being 2nd class citizens. 
 

we are big enough and good enough to stand on our own 2 feet.

[Mikey1874]

11 hours ago, Victorian said:

The upcoming programme bill, second reading,  committee stage and Lords reading is an absolute quagmire.     All kinds of variables.    It's about 6 months business to get done in a few days.    Will never happen.

 

The difficulty is that the bill / legislation is based on the agreement with EU.

 

If anything major changes there would be a need to go back to EU. 

[dobmisterdobster]

8 hours ago, Jambo, Goodbye said:

 

This would only happen if the SNP went into Indy negotiations as a minority government. Which I think we can safely assume won't happen. 

 

Had TM not handed over her majority two years ago in that snap GE, Stage 1 of Brexit would probably be resolved by now. 

The SNP are in a minority government right now with the Greens.

[Jambo, Goodbye]

14 minutes ago, dobmisterdobster said:

The SNP are in a minority government right now with the Greens.

 

I know, but any future negotiations would conclude after the next scottish election. 

 

If they concluded before, we still have a pro-indy majority, as you rightly pointed out. 

[Mikey1874]

EU pressing UK on guaranteeing rights for EU citizens including those who don't apply for settled status. 

[AlimOzturk]

Can more knowledgeable Kickbackers on brexit let me know if boris has any chance of pulling off Brexit by the 31 of October? 

[Victorian]

56 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

The difficulty is that the bill / legislation is based on the agreement with EU.

 

If anything major changes there would be a need to go back to EU. 

 

Indeed.   It will be a free for all in amendments and the bill,   if not pulled,   will be profoundly altered from the deal agreed by the EU.    In hindsight,   there was always the probability that the legislation could become bogged down in the mire.     It could have been avoided if Theresa May had listened and considered that other people were capable of making decisions as well as her and set up cross party executive body of limited numbers to manage the entire thing.     

[Don Dan]

Another factor has now entered the considerations especially on the EU side. 
It may well change the thinking of the EU regarding Brexit as losing our contribution makes things more difficult as Germany as a major contributor won’t have as money available to help out if needed. 
How it plays out I’ve no real idea yet as I’m no expert but no doubt it will have an impact.

 

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-7597465/Germany-tumbles-recession-global-trade-tensions-worries-Brexit-toll.html

 

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&ved=2ahUKEwijk6WAzK_lAhXAVRUIHRKnBgIQFjACegQIDBAH&url=https%3A%2F%2Fmarkets.businessinsider.com%2Fnews%2Fstocks%2Fgerman-economy-may-be-in-recession-bundesbank-says-2019-10-1028615602&usg=AOvVaw2tLlzArCiRZgGULCVaQosZ
 

 

"German economic output could have decreased slightly in the third quarter of 2019," the Bundesbank said in its monthly report. If it did, Germany will have contracted for two consecutive quarters — it shrank by 0.1% in the three months to June — meaning it's officially in recession.”

[Mikey1874]

12 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

Can more knowledgeable Kickbackers on brexit let me know if boris has any chance of pulling off Brexit by the 31 of October? 

 

Not more knowledgeable. 

 

Watch out for the vote later today on the proposed timetable to pass the legislation ie this week. If that passes he has a chance. Because any serious amendment eg Referendum or Customs Union I think is likely to be voted down in a quick timetable.

 

If loses that vote it will not be possible. 

Edited October 22, 2019 by Mikey1874

[Brighton Jambo]

Looks like any meaningful amendments will fail (customs union, 2nd referendum) as they are nowhere near the numbers for both.  Particularly disappointing regarding customs union as that had been the most previously preferred option but they are miles away from the numbers needed.  

[Mikey1874]

4 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

Looks like any meaningful amendments will fail (customs union, 2nd referendum) as they are nowhere near the numbers for both.  Particularly disappointing regarding customs union as that had been the most previously preferred option but they are miles away from the numbers needed.  

 

Looks like we'll need to elect a Labour Government then. 

 

This Government is dead against a Customs Union.

 

This is where a temporary Government could deliver that. Not a big change needed in Withdrawal Agreement. Just a rewrite of the Political Declaration and  would be supported by EU. That seems very unlikely though. 

Edited October 22, 2019 by Mikey1874

[Brighton Jambo]

2 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Looks like we'll need to elect a Labour Government then. 

 

This Government is dead against a Customs Union.

 

This is where a temporary Government could deliver that. 

Would need to be a labour majority  post an election though as SNP have said they will categorically never vote for any form of brexit including customs union, neither will Lib Dem’s. So even a temp government wouldn’t have the votes for that.  

 

not sure I see labour getting a majority.   

 

 

[Mikey1874]

1 minute ago, Brighton Jambo said:

Would need to be a labour majority  post an election though as SNP have said they will categorically never vote for any form of brexit including customs union, neither will Lib Dem’s. So even a temp government wouldn’t have the votes for that.  

 

not sure I see labour getting a majority.   

 

 

 

SNP moving towards supporting a Customs Union.

 

SNP did vote for one of the options when there were a series of votes. They did show some flexibility.

 

Unlike the Lib Dems. 

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

26 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Looks like we'll need to elect a Labour Government then. 

 

This Government is dead against a Customs Union.

 

This is where a temporary Government could deliver that. Not a big change needed in Withdrawal Agreement. Just a rewrite of the Political Declaration and  would be supported by EU. That seems very unlikely though. 

I don’t see Labour winning an outright majority in an election. And a temporary government would make no difference because you’re still talking about the same MPs with the same leanings

[RobboM]

11 hours ago, graygo said:

 

I thought they voted against that even being possible?

They did BUT it was only an amendment to the Withdrawl Agreement Bill and as soon as it was passed the Government withdrew its own bill and the amendment died with it. Hence why the speaker yesterday disallowed them just bringing it back again for discussion 2 days after they themselves had withdrawn it.

[Mikey1874]

The vote on the timetable (all done this week in Commons then over weekend at Lords) will be around 7pm.

 

After they discuss the bill from around 1pm with a vote on basically accepting the bill will be considered. 

Edited October 22, 2019 by Mikey1874

[dobmisterdobster]

There is an SNP amendment for a Scottish veto over Brexit.

I don't see how that's fair at all.

[Unknown user]

1 hour ago, AlimOzturk said:

Can more knowledgeable Kickbackers on brexit let me know if boris has any chance of pulling off Brexit by the 31 of October? 

 

It's possible that a deal could be voted through but I'd say it's very unlikely that we'll be out with no deal on 1st November.

As I've boringly repeated often the country can't deal with a sudden no deal brexit, we'd be in genuine, actual trouble as we head into winter. The tories would be to blame in the eyes of the electorate, no deal is seen as largely their game, and they wouldn't get voted in for a long time as a result, with Bawjaws, Walter the softy and that lot at the forefront.

It's too mental to push through for anyone who's read up on the consequences.

[RobboM]

4 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

It's possible that a deal could be voted through but I'd say it's very unlikely that we'll be out with no deal on 1st November.

As I've boringly repeated often the country can't deal with a sudden no deal brexit, we'd be in genuine, actual trouble as we head into winter. The tories would be to blame in the eyes of the electorate, no deal is seen as largely their game, and they wouldn't get voted in for a long time as a result, with Bawjaws, Walter the softy and that lot at the forefront.

It's too mental to push through for anyone who's read up on the consequences.

Agreed Smithee hence why "No Deal" has never been a useful or sensible negotiating chip. It's us standing with a gun to our own head threatening to pull the trigger. Of course there would be some splatter on the EU bystanders but it would damage us an awful lot more!

[graygo]

1 hour ago, RobboM said:

They did BUT it was only an amendment to the Withdrawl Agreement Bill and as soon as it was passed the Government withdrew its own bill and the amendment died with it. Hence why the speaker yesterday disallowed them just bringing it back again for discussion 2 days after they themselves had withdrawn it.

 

Right but if the government try to get the withdrawal agreement bill through again then surely Letwins amendment will come into play again. Point being that they can't get the bill through without the relevant legislation being passed first,

[Boof]

1 hour ago, Smithee said:

Walter the softy

 

 

[Mikey1874]

20 minutes ago, graygo said:

 

Right but if the government try to get the withdrawal agreement bill through again then surely Letwins amendment will come into play again. Point being that they can't get the bill through without the relevant legislation being passed first,

 

The plan before was Meaningful Vote then the legislation.

 

Letwin amendment as you say said legislation must also pass.

 

Now it's all on the legislation (the bill). 

Edited October 22, 2019 by Mikey1874

[Mysterion]

14 minutes ago, Barack said:

 

Would rather not have a GE. 2nd vote would be better to determine if we stay/leave or take a deal. After that then a GE so parties can put forward their manifesto based on supporting the country not arguing over what the "will of the people" actually is. 

[dobmisterdobster]

18 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

There is not enough support in the house for a second referendum. The option has been voted on a few times and got nowhere. 
 

There is a fundamental issue with the numbers in the house. A GE would most likely change this in normal circumstance but unfortunately it will return a minority government IMO and we may have the same issue.

 

I agree it would seem to make more sense for reasons you say just don’t see it happening.

Even so, an election would clear a lot of dead weight. No more Soubry, Hammond, Boles, Letwin, Clarke, Bercow etc.

Parliament will be a lot less toxic with them gone.

[Mikey1874]

2 minutes ago, dobmisterdobster said:

Even so, an election would clear a lot of dead weight. No more Soubry, Hammond, Boles, Letwin, Clarke, Bercow etc.

Parliament will be a lot less toxic with them gone.

 

Boris Johnson among others vulnerable too.

 

A whole host of bright young new MPs. 

[Mikey1874]

35 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

 

 

 

Has confirmed legislation will not go ahead if Parliament votes against the 3 day timetable. 

 

Boris stopping Brexit happening. He is a Remainer!

[The Real Maroonblood]

13 minutes ago, dobmisterdobster said:

Even so, an election would clear a lot of dead weight. No more Soubry, Hammond, Boles, Letwin, Clarke, Bercow etc.

Parliament will be a lot less toxic with them gone.

The ones you don't agree with.

 

[Mikey1874]

Just now, Lord BJ said:

That by nature a nailed on seat for the tories. However, his majority was about 5k last time and it wouldn’t surprise if we so some weird tactic at that seat to try and depose him. Maybe some parties not standing to try and get behind a single candidate.

 

How successful something like that plays out no idea. I can’t see the PM would not being re-elected. 

 

Momentum target with young candidate.

 

Demographic changes a little unpredictable. 

[Mikey1874]

Big risk to ditch the legislation by Boris Johnson.

 

More debate might actually help set the way to the future relationship. 

 

And its surely correct to properly debate some complex matters. 

[gjcc]

I like the whole hypocrisy of the brexiteers. “Bercow is stopping us voting for the deal” meanwhile fighting to stop the people voting on the deal. 😂

[Victorian]

Needs a FTP act derived election soon to prevent a no confidence derived caretaker gvt taking over and causing all manner of sense happening.    Needs election very soon to maximise turnout as well.   Low turnout winter election not ideal for the Tories.     Total desperation.

[Mikey1874]

6 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

Whats Labours plans for MP who voted with govt?

 

They are working to retain a degree of unity but also not antagonising Leave voters. 

 

So no plans to remove whip which forces them out of party.

 

Corbyn just answered that very question in Parliament "I believe in the powers of persuasion".

Edited October 22, 2019 by Mikey1874

[dobmisterdobster]

23 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

Well I don’t doubt the tories candidates will tie the party line this time round. Whilst the polls seem to suggest they have a 8-10 point lead. So it entirely possible they would be in a stronger position. 
 

Though not sure I would term some of those politicians dead weight probably more just having a different opinion from the govt and yourself. 
 

However, the tories will undoubtably get rid of the dissenting MP’s, they’ve already done it. 
 

The numbers in the house need to change to force things through. Whether a GE does that time will tell.  

 

Change UK and Tory rebels are essentially lame ducks. They have no future in Westminster and will spend the time they have left going scorched earth against the government.

At least some have had the foresight to join the Lib Dems where they might have a future or announce their retirement.

[Mikey1874]

6 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

 

As Labour appear unlikely at the moment to be elected, you would imagine Corbyn will be ditched after a GE. Would a change of leader mean a different policy/strategy around brexit?

 

 

Position under Corbyn has been

 

1. Implementing Referendum result

 

2. Close relationship with EU - Customs Union/ close to Single Market

 

Gradually the Labour members have forced them towards a second Referendum. If the chance arises a new Labour leadership could go all in on stopping Brexit. 

.

[dobmisterdobster]

31 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Momentum target with young candidate.

 

Demographic changes a little unpredictable. 

Putting a Momentum candidate in Ruislip isn't the smartest idea.

It's not hard to see where Labour have gone wrong in recent times.

[Victorian]

Better to earth scorch the gvt than the ****ing gvt earth scorching the country.

[hughesie27]

Shirley they will vote for a GE effectively now tonight?

[Victorian]

Saying now that Johnson's exact words don't preclude him 'allowing' weeks of delay.    EU might shorten extension to a month to allow legislation and bill to be passed.

[Mikey1874]

14 minutes ago, dobmisterdobster said:

Putting a Momentum candidate in Ruislip isn't the smartest idea.

It's not hard to see where Labour have gone wrong in recent times.

 

He's a local guy. You would like him. 

[DETTY29]

3 hours ago, dobmisterdobster said:

There is an SNP amendment for a Scottish veto over Brexit.

I don't see how that's fair at all.

Salmond tried that before but told not necessary as Referendum was advisory.

 

 

[dobmisterdobster]

50 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

Salmond tried that before but told not necessary as Referendum was advisory.

 

 

Scotland shouldn't have special powers like that just because it's a nation of the UK.

Self govern all you want but Scotland cannot just be given a constitutional veto like that.

[J.T.F.Robertson]

1 hour ago, Victorian said:

Saying now that Johnson's exact words don't preclude him 'allowing' weeks of delay.    EU might shorten extension to a month to allow legislation and bill to be passed.

 

Admirably making the supreme sacrifice, but how do we find the ditch? 

 

[hughesie27]

4 minutes ago, dobmisterdobster said:

Scotland shouldn't have special powers like that just because it's a nation of the UK.

Self govern all you want but Scotland cannot just be given a constitutional veto like that.

Northern Ireland will effectively have a veto to remain in single market won't they?

[ri Alban]

7 minutes ago, dobmisterdobster said:

Scotland shouldn't have special powers like that just because it's a nation of the UK.

Self govern all you want but Scotland cannot just be given a constitutional veto like that.

The UK had a veto in the EU. What's the difference?

Edited October 22, 2019 by ri Alban

[dobmisterdobster]

10 minutes ago, hughesie27 said:

Northern Ireland will effectively have a veto to remain in single market won't they?

NI has an EU frontier. Scotland is part of the mainland.

8 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

The UK had a veto in the EU. What's the difference?

We are not a federation. If Scotland gets a veto should London or Yorkshire have one?

[Justin Z]

18 minutes ago, dobmisterdobster said:

Scotland shouldn't have special powers like that just because it's a nation of the UK.

Self govern all you want but Scotland cannot just be given a constitutional veto like that.

 

There's a pretty compelling argument that constitutional change as overwhelmingly massive as removal from the European Union, if you're going to hold a referendum on it, ought not to pass unless every constituent nation in the UK votes in favour of it.

David Cameron, when the need for such a safeguard was mentioned, reportedly replied that he doesn't lose, therefore no such requirement would be necessary for the Brexit referendum.

[Unknown user]

21 minutes ago, dobmisterdobster said:

Scotland shouldn't have special powers like that just because it's a nation of the UK.

Self govern all you want but Scotland cannot just be given a constitutional veto like that.

 

So the UK yields more power in the EU than Scotland does in the UK then?

 

[Justin Z]

Just now, Smithee said:

So the UK yields more power in the EU than Scotland does in the UK then?

 

[dobmisterdobster]

6 minutes ago, Justin Z said:

 

There's a pretty compelling argument that constitutional change as overwhelmingly massive as removal from the European Union, if you're going to hold a referendum on it, ought not to pass unless every constituent nation in the UK votes in favour of it.

David Cameron, when the need for such a safeguard was mentioned, reportedly replied that he doesn't lose, therefore no such requirement would be necessary for the Brexit referendum.

We are not the USA where every state legislature has to agree to a constitutional amendment.

 

The Supreme Court has definitively said that any Brexit deal does not require the approval of the Scottish Parliament.

 

5 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

So the UK yields more power in the EU than Scotland does in the UK then?

 

Yes