The 2015 General Election Megathread

[deesidejambo]

I saw on the BBC today that they're investing 750million into oil exploration just off Shetland. Kind of contradicts what you've been sayin of late.

No it doesn't.    The amount of exploration has dropped significantly in recent years, and the "increase" you allude to is still tiny and targeted at nowhere near 24 billion barrels recoverable.        The recent investment by BP in ETAP is to maintain current production, not to increase it.  Also that came due to a significant tax reduction announced in March, leading to significantly reduced exchequer income, at $50/bbl. not $100..

 

Either way, look at the decline plot that I posted, from that you will get less than 10 billion barrels from current fields.  You do the analysis yourself, tell the forum where the extra oil will come from.     No need to listen to me or Alex - the data is public domain - you do the extrapolation and you calculate how many large fields need to be "discovered" to make up the 24 billion.

 

Let me know when you've done the analysis.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

It is.

 

I've never met a nationalist suffering from narcissism that wants someone to plead that they stay in union. It's nonsensical.

So what's your problem with the English "wanting rid" of you?

[deesidejambo]

The president of ETAP stated that the investment is securing the future of the fields until 2030 and EXTENDING the life of the assets. The money is also being used to invest in NEW developments such as Clair Ridge and Quad204.

 

24billion barrells, 10billion barrels. Either way, there's still clearly much more oil out there.

Wrong again.   Its extending the field life to maintain the decline forecast that was shown in my plot, not increase it.   If they don't do that then the line on the plot drops further as ETAP facilities would have to be closed-in.    and also it is at a very low tax take so income to the Country is far lower than previously.

 

So there is no extra oil from ETAP, none at all.

 

So plase do the extrapolation yourself and tell the forum where the oil will come from.

 

For other forum members - the forecast of current remaining oil is easily determined form the decline data, and is far less than 10 billion barrels, and Alexs extra 14 billion will not happen.   And the real number will not be at Alexs $100/bbl, and it will also be at a far lower tax income than Alexs.   It was simple porkies.     But Nats will fall for it so there you go.

[Thunderstruck]

It's the highest that it's ever been, I have already posted links.

 

Blaming the SNP for the conservatives winning. Do you know how stupid that 'theory' is?

1. They are not and, even if they were, still a gulf to cross.

 

2. Did you not pay any attention to the election campaign. The Tories played a blinder and the vanity of Salmond and Sturgeon played right into their hands by offering them the opportunity to put out the poster with Salmond in Milliband's pocket - one of the most effective and influential psyops since the "Labour isn't Working" campaign.

 

Go speak to some English voters.

[deesidejambo]

1. They are not and, even if they were, still a gulf to cross.

 

2. Did you not pay any attention to the election campaign. The Tories played a blinder and the vanity of Salmond and Sturgeon played right into their hands by offering them the opportunity to put out the poster with Salmond in Milliband's pocket - one of the most effective and influential psyops since the "Labour isn't Working" campaign.

 

Go speak to some English voters.

DC did do a blinder.

 

Not only did he cast Salmond as a bogeyman, resulting in significant switch to Tory, as evidenced by many many analyses post the elections, but he is now casting the Tories as the "Party of working people" i.e. stealing that moniker straight from under Labours nose.

 

If this continues they will walk into a second term, but if Labour move to the left and take note of electorate wishes, they may recover.   I personally would support renationalisation of certain industries.     But if the go into cancelling Trident, the silent majority will see to it that they crater.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

No issue, you've mis-interpreted my post.

How? You claimed their antagonism was media inspired. Whatever the reason for it, surely it is a positive?

 

In addition, what do you think the media should be reporting?

[Thunderstruck]

The president of ETAP stated that the investment is securing the future of the fields until 2030 and EXTENDING the life of the assets. The money is also being used to invest in NEW developments such as Clair Ridge and Quad204.

 

24billion barrells, 10billion barrels. Either way, there's still clearly much more oil out there.

There are megatonnes of coal beneath us (England to be precise) but until market conditions and settling ecological concerns make it winnable it is just a black geological seam of sedimentary materials.

 

Similarly, there are billions of barrels of oil under the UK section of the Continental Shelf. The vast majority of that oil is unrecoverable. Even the much vaunted Claire Ridge now requires advanced (and expensive) techniques to win the oil.

[deesidejambo]

What I typed was a direct quote from ETAP and the BBC, it's available to read for yourself.

 

Who knows how much oil is out there. The recent press releases however refer to NEW investments. And again, it might hit $100 again by the time that Scotland would have became independent in 2016. You berate Salmond for speculation, but are equally guilty of it yourself.

I'm not speculating at all - I am extrapolating the actual production decline data as publicly available and used for Industry Corporate reporting to shareholders and Gov't, and I am using the actual oil price as it is today, and the actual tax take, as it is today.

 

No speculation at all - real data, with evidence, public domain, all used.  

 

Bu you keep on adding imaginary volumes, using an imaginary doubling of price, and a tax take that no longer exists.     Are you Alex?

 

The oil price "may" got up to $500/bbl so are you OK to use that?

 

ETAP rejuvenation is to maintain current production, otherwise the fields will be closed in very soon.    Like it or not, thats what the Project is.  it adds not a single barrel of additional oil to the decline plot that I posted.

Edited August 6, 2015 by deesidejambo

[deesidejambo]

Historically support for independence was always around 33%. It's been consistantly 45% whilst the No vote decreases.

 

I don't know what world you'd have to live in to believe that SNP were to blame for the conservatives putting up negative posters. They had little control over it, were too busy presumably winning Scotland. You need to look introspectively at your own party.

Negative campaigning is done by all parties.

 

i remember the "we will not be ruled by Tory Toffs" approach that works well in the schemes I guess.

[coconut doug]

Wrong again.   Its extending the field life to maintain the decline forecast that was shown in my plot, not increase it.   If they don't do that then the line on the plot drops further as ETAP facilities would have to be closed-in.    and also it is at a very low tax take so income to the Country is far lower than previously.

 

So there is no extra oil from ETAP, none at all.

 

So plase do the extrapolation yourself and tell the forum where the oil will come from.

 

For other forum members - the forecast of current remaining oil is easily determined form the decline data, and is far less than 10 billion barrels, and Alexs extra 14 billion will not happen.   And the real number will not be at Alexs $100/bbl, and it will also be at a far lower tax income than Alexs.   It was simple porkies.     But Nats will fall for it so there you go.

Extrapolation is price and technology dependent. Some of us are unable to predict the future but if you think everything stays the same you may be right, Who could have predicted U.S.A.'s rise to NO 1 producer and a near doubling of production in around 6 years?

 

http://www.scottishenergynews.com/platform/bp-global-energy-report-us-becomes-worlds-no-1-oil-producer-energy-c02-emissions-fall-to-17-year-low-renewables-picture-unclear/

[Psychedelicropcircle]

You should perhaps take yourself off to read the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey. The percentage in favour of Independence has, since 2000 varied between 25% and 39% with the highest recorded support happening in 2005; the actual Yes vote in last September being circa 37% of adult population.

 

It has changed from Sept 14 but in a downward direction. The numbers polling in support of SNP last May lies within that range and, as we have been repeatedly told, included those who will continue to vote No but were conned into thinking that the SNP was the best way to keep DC out of No. 10 when, in fact, the Tories couldn't have hoped for a better a Recruiting Sergeant than the SNP. I hope your are happy with your part in giving us five more years of "Tory Rule".

**** me its my fault! I thought the SNP were the blame game players. You'll find polls have found the SNP card played by the Tories made no difference. So maybe it's down to the Labour Party and its continuing struggle soul searching who it should represent? Painful when your party used to be a big team eh!

[deesidejambo]

Extrapolation is price and technology dependent. Some of us are unable to predict the future but if you think everything stays the same you may be right, Who could have predicted U.S.A.'s rise to NO 1 producer and a near doubling of production in around 6 years?

 

http://www.scottishenergynews.com/platform/bp-global-energy-report-us-becomes-worlds-no-1-oil-producer-energy-c02-emissions-fall-to-17-year-low-renewables-picture-unclear/

Thats easy to explain.

 

The USAs production increase has been due to massive investment in thousands of onshore wells (including fraccing almost every one!) in pre-discovered areas.    for this to happen in the UKCS, the first thing that needs to happen is discover and develop about 10 billion barrels of new recoverable reserves.   

 

But lets just agree to keep Nats happy that there are 300 billion barrels left, and the oil price will rise to $800/bbl.  Independence here we come!

[coconut doug]

You should perhaps take yourself off to read the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey. The percentage in favour of Independence has, since 2000 varied between 25% and 39% with the highest recorded support happening in 2005; the actual Yes vote in last September being circa 37% of adult population.

 

It has changed from Sept 14 but in a downward direction. The numbers polling in support of SNP last May lies within that range and, as we have been repeatedly told, included those who will continue to vote No but were conned into thinking that the SNP was the best way to keep DC out of No. 10 when, in fact, the Tories couldn't have hoped for a better a Recruiting Sergeant than the SNP. I hope your are happy with your part in giving us five more years of "Tory Rule".

Professor Green, having carried out extensive research, does not agree with your notion that the SNP were recruiting sergeants for the Tories.

http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-nuances-of-the-night/

 

Look at the extract from the BBC parliament programme.

[deesidejambo]

Deeside. I was quoting exactly what was said. Take it up with ETAP.

You are reading into it what you want and you are wrong.  ETAP is clearly, clearly, explained, in the report, to be a rejuvenation Project aimed, in your own words, at extending field life go 2030, i.e extending the current production decline, that is part of the plot.

 

For others (not Hunky-Dory)  - there is no additional oil coming from the ETAP rejuvenation Project, it is aimed to safeguard the current decline.  If the Project were not to happen, ETAP would close-in altogether and the oil would be lost.  Its not an addition, its a project to maintain current rates.

[Thunderstruck]

I'm not speculating at all - I am extrapolating the actual production decline data as publicly available and used for Industry Corporate reporting to shareholders and Gov't, and I am using the actual oil price as it is today, and the actual tax take, as it is today.

 

No speculation at all - real data, with evidence, public domain, all used.

 

Bu you keep on adding imaginary volumes, using an imaginary doubling of price, and a tax take that no longer exists. Are you Alex?

 

The oil price "may" got up to $500/bbl so are you OK to use that?

 

ETAP rejuvenation is to maintain current production, otherwise the fields will be closed in very soon. Like it or not, thats what the Project is. it adds not a single barrel of additional oil to the decline plot that I posted.

You could also add that the future price of oil is immaterial. It has now been shown to be unpredictable and public finance (the stuff that pays for NHS, Welfare, Education) abhors uncertainty in its tax revenues.

[coconut doug]

Thats easy to explain.

 

The USAs production increase has been due to massive investment in thousands of onshore wells (including fraccing almost every one!) in pre-discovered areas.    for this to happen in the UKCS, the first thing that needs to happen is discover and develop about 10 billion barrels of new recoverable reserves.   

 

But lets just agree to keep Nats happy that there are 300 billion barrels left, and the oil price will rise to $800/bbl.  Independence here we come!

No! The point is that this new oil in the USA was previously unrecoverable (extrapolate from start to 2008). New technology/legislation etc made it recoverable.This oilt also played a major part in the drop in price which made some North Sea deposits no longer economically recoverable. When the price goes back up the amount of recoverable oil in the North Sea will increase commensurately.

  I don't agree with the 300 billion figure though, that's not price or technology dependent. It just isn't there.

[deesidejambo]

The link so people can make up their own minds:

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-33786118

lol no problem.

 

All - please note where it mentions the additional volumes that will be produced from ETAP rejuvenation.

 

Nowhere.  Thats because there aint any.  Hunky-Dory has no idea what a rejuvenation Project means.  Don't get a job as an Oil Analyst mate.

[Thunderstruck]

I found a link proving that what you were claiming surrounding the conservative posters is absolute nonsense:

 

https://archive.is/uGG6E

What you have there is one of a number of Polling Companies who, you will remember, made a complete a**e of predicting the outcome of the GE. They have now to convince themselves and their clients that there was good reason for their failure.

 

If you really believe that the SNP played no part in influencing the outcome of the GE, you add to the growing public perception that SNP adherents have a fairly flimsy grasp of political and economic realities.

[deesidejambo]

What you have there is one of a number of Polling Companies who, you will remember, made a complete a**e of predicting the outcome of the GE. They have now to convince themselves and their clients that there was good reason for their failure.

 

If you really believe that the SNP played no part in influencing the outcome of the GE, you add to the growing public perception that SNP adherents have a fairly flimsy grasp of political and economic realities.

But the good news is 56 of them are now sitting in Westminster "representing Scotland".  If they do their job properly there will be less appetite for Independence by the undecided.  The ultimate irony.

[deesidejambo]

Investing in new developments was the giveaway. I quoted word for word what it stipulated in the article.

 

No plans to become an oil analyst, there's no future in it anyway given that the oil is running out.

The new development they are referring to is Clair Ridge.   No problem there, I already quoted that in earlier post.  How many barrels is it planned to recover?  24 billion?

[coconut doug]

What you have there is one of a number of Polling Companies who, you will remember, made a complete a**e of predicting the outcome of the GE. They have now to convince themselves and their clients that there was good reason for their failure.

 

If you really believe that the SNP played no part in influencing the outcome of the GE, you add to the growing public perception that SNP adherents have a fairly flimsy grasp of political and economic realities.

What was professor Green's problem? Is she another with a fairly flimsy grasp of politics and economics?

[deesidejambo]

The proof is there. There's more substance to that than your conjecture.

 

Labour have enacted their own downfall. How could your party not win against a conservative party that has bled this country dry?

 

The facts are - Tory vote went down, your vote went up, the people that decided to vote increased substantially. Perhaps that was something to do with the fact that the options on the ballot paper were: Tories, Tories (Red), ex-Tories (Lib-dem), Tories (UKIP).

How have the Tories bled Scotland dry?

[deesidejambo]

You're fixated with 24billion, quoting Salmond from last year.

 

We'll find out soon enough how much oil is there.

I'm not fixated on 24.  Alex Salmond is.   All i am doing is showing its lies.

 

Anyway, how have the Tories bled scotland dry?

[deesidejambo]

When I mentioned country, I was referring to the UK.

 

Austerity, penalising the poor, cutting budgets etc.

Well some people still vote for them.  you must have a low opinion of the majority of the electorate.  How did the evil tories manage to hoodwink everyone?

[deesidejambo]

No one from the SNP side has mentioned "24billion" for nearly 12 months. Just looked on google.

Yes i know, but Alex now claims the Oil Companies are "hiding" oil.   Again porkies Alex.    But I expect you will believe that as well.

[Thunderstruck]

You're fixated with 24billion, quoting Salmond from last year.

 

We'll find out soon enough how much oil is there.

You seem to have an almighty fixation on a commodity which will provide tax revenues that will only be a "bonus".

 

Deeside is involved in that sector and his opinions are clearly in line with the rational analysis found in economic and financial publications (for the record - again - these sources do not include "Wings" which seems to be the comic of choice on this thread). You could do worse than give some credence to what he says.

[jambos are go!]

No, but you can extrapolate whatever you want from what I said.

People can vote for whoever they want, habits die hard in politics. Tories keep the rich, rich and appeal to a percentage of the electorate.

How many posts on there this thread now? I can't recall once, a Labour supporter, with a positive case for the party.

So you have not read any of my posts about all the social reforms and massive increases in public spending was down to Labour policies since the war including the Brown/Blair Governments. Compare and contrast that with the Timid SNP Administrations in charge at Holyrood. They will get a third term but no way do they deserve it. They had to clone the Labour manifesto for goodness sake. And now dont talk about the O Level White paper they produced before the Referendum.

 

Labour must reform to regain power its true. People are crying out for that not nonsense on stilts

[aussieh]

If there was another referendum next year and it was another "No", would you accept that? Judging by your usual Tourette's-like responses, probably not. So, how many times would we have to vote No for you to accept it?

 

The 2014 Referendum was lauded as a superb example of voter engagement with a huge turnout and debate engaged in a generally civilised manner. In short, an example of the best of democratic processes. Despite claims of interference by MI5/MFI/CIA/GCHQ/NCIS/SMERSH/U.N.C.L.E.* it was conducted fairly and, the view of international observers, the outcome was an entirely accurate measure of voter intention.

 

* delete according to your personal paranoia.

 

The point is that, if ever a vote accurately reflected the voice of the people, this was it but you and your fellow travellers cannot accept the settled will of the Scottish People.

I see your true mantra slipped into view.

Flute in mouth disease I see.

[aussieh]

Freedom of speech - like where no voters were threatened to stay away from "yes" streets, where no campaigners were heckled and abused at meetings or followed round the streets? Where journalists speak to people with Police Scotland snooping on them? Where No voters were intimidated into silence during the referendum?

 

Did Nicola ever get heckled at public meetings? Were there "No" streets that Yes supporters got threatened to stay away from? You can point to a few Rangers idiots in George Sq doing what old firm fans do and winding up the opposition but on the whole No was the side which showed the most respect to the opposition.

 

SNP may say the referendum was a wonderful process but I disagree. Yes tried to silence the No voters and as a result we mainly just kept to ourselves, didn't disclose our voting intentions publicly and won comfortably in the end. Unlike many Yes voters who were voting with their heart, myself and many others voted with our head as the risk was too high and the economic case not made. The vow made no difference to me nor anyone i know who shared that they also voted no.

Lies

[aussieh]

You are reading into it what you want and you are wrong. ETAP is clearly, clearly, explained, in the report, to be a rejuvenation Project aimed, in your own words, at extending field life go 2030, i.e extending the current production decline, that is part of the plot.

 

For others (not Hunky-Dory) - there is no additional oil coming from the ETAP rejuvenation Project, it is aimed to safeguard the current decline. If the Project were not to happen, ETAP would close-in altogether and the oil would be lost. Its not an addition, its a project to maintain current rates.

Theres Billions, The Greatest Living Scotsman is right.

[aussieh]

lol no problem.

 

All - please note where it mentions the additional volumes that will be produced from ETAP rejuvenation.

 

Nowhere. Thats because there aint any. Hunky-Dory has no idea what a rejuvenation Project means. Don't get a job as an Oil Analyst mate.

The should sack you.

[aussieh]

But the good news is 56 of them are now sitting in Westminster "representing Scotland". If they do their job properly there will be less appetite for Independence by the undecided. The ultimate irony.

Theyve done well, but 56 cant get far, without help.

When are you planning to relocate, now the oil is running out.

Stay away from renewables, theyll run out too.

Edited August 7, 2015 by aussieh

[aussieh]

So you have not read any of my posts about all the social reforms and massive increases in public spending was down to Labour policies since the war including the Brown/Blair Governments. Compare and contrast that with the Timid SNP Administrations in charge at Holyrood. They will get a third term but no way do they deserve it. They had to clone the Labour manifesto for goodness sake. And now dont talk about the O Level White paper they produced before the Referendum.

 

Labour must reform to regain power its true. People are crying out for that not nonsense on stilts

Or we can change the voting system @ Holyrood, that allows, an unelected Tory Leader, in its chamber.(

That to me, is an affront to democracy.

Edited August 7, 2015 by aussieh

[Stuart Lyon]

Another sign of the declining NS oil industry

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-33809007

 

No doubt the SNP and it's supporters will say this is wrong and as usual they are right (on all things).

Edited August 7, 2015 by Stuart Lyon

[AlphonseCapone]

The Unionist Handbook to Irony:

 

Page 1: I will complain independence supporters keep going on about referendums while myself constantly bleating on about referendums.

 

Page 2: I will accuse independence supporters of not understanding politics or democracy while complaining about what a political party puts in it's manifesto and the consequences of a majority voting for that manifesto.

[jack D and coke]

And I thought the Indy thread went round in circles [emoji1]

[deesidejambo]

I countered what he posted a couple of days ago with a press release, quoting word-for-word, that there were investments in NEW areas.

Wrong again.  The new areas they refer to is Clair Ridge, which is targetting 0.65 billion bbls, using the same data you are quoting.   Note that is a "target", not a forecast, the internal corporate forecasts are significantly lower.    I am not denying there are soem new fields to be developed, never have, but with these added in, the number will never get anywhere near 24 billion.  

 

A long way short of Alexes 24 billion.  Where is the rest coming from?    Let me know.

[deesidejambo]

Another sign of the declining NS oil industry

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-33809007

 

No doubt the SNP and it's supporters will say this is wrong and as usual they are right (on all things).

Sad but true.    You will soon hear of the next fields to be abandoned.    The govts fiscal forecasts will be revised significantly further downwards this year.         But the Nats will still believe any old number Alex makes up.  

[Thunderstruck]

Almost on cue, an article from this morning's Herald:

 

http://m.heraldscotland.com/politics/13580400.Crosby__Tories_targeted_voter_fears_Sturgeon_would_pull_Miliband_strings_back_in_November/

[jambo1185]

And I thought the Indy thread went round in circles [emoji1]

 

[Psychedelicropcircle]

Sad but true. You will soon hear of the next fields to be abandoned. The govts fiscal forecasts will be revised significantly further downwards this year. But the Nats will still believe any old number Alex makes up.

Wot ever you do in this industry I hope to duck it's not PR.

[deesidejambo]

Wot ever you do in this industry I hope to duck it's not PR.

lol point taken.

 

I'm more involved in the truth than PR.

 

At current fiscalised production rates, it will take 82 years to produce 24 billion barrels.      Thats a simple calculation anyone can make.     Do it yourself to check.     It assumes no decline whatsoever.    However the production plots that are freely avaialble in public domain, show a steady and steep decline, so 82 years is an absolute minimum unless rates can be very significantly increased from the current 900,000 barrels per day.

 

Clair Ridge and Mariner etc will increase NS production , but that increase will simply offset the decline from the other fields, a number of which are now being abandoned as we speak (you wont see that in the News, I wonder why).   The increase will be nowhere near enough to get to 24 billion barrels.

  

Current offshore facilities will never last for another 82 years.   They corrode, they leak, and they need high levels of maintenance juyst to keep them going.  ETAP being the obvious example.    Massive tax incentives were needed to allow ETAP to proceed, resulting in significant fiscal income reduction.

 

The SNPs plans for FFA are garbage.

 

But keep on believing Alex.

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

At times this thread was quite good.

 

Now it's stuck in the SNP/oil debate.

 

Laters.

[XB52]

Another sign of the declining NS oil industry

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-33809007

 

No doubt the SNP and it's supporters will say this is wrong and as usual they are right (on all things).

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-33786118   

[Cairneyhill Jambo]

Another sign of the declining NS oil industry

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-33809007

 

No doubt the SNP and it's supporters will say this is wrong and as usual they are right (on all things)

 

BP have just announced they are investing ?670m in the North Sea to increase production.

 

http://www.scotsman.com/news/scotland/top-stories/bp-to-spend-670m-on-boosting-north-sea-assets-1-3850166

[XB52]

5 by-elections last night in the Glasgow area, 5 victories for the SNP, lowest share of the vote was 48%. IMO the council elections in 2017 are the real test for the SNP. If the old Glasgow labour cartel can be kicked out of power in the council there, then labour truly is finished.  

[jambo1185]

Good results for the SNP for sure, although they only represent one gain (and that was from the Greens, not Labour) but on a diabolical turnout (16% in one ward was about the best of the night) these sort of elections are all down to which party is best structured on the ground to get their vote out, because an extra 50 votes can result in a big difference to your vote share, and with their current wave of dedicated support that's easily the SNP in areas that are traditionally the most apathetic to elections in Scotland. This guarantee of getting people along to the polling station on the day is what will make the SNP very, very hard to beat even in the more closely contested areas - their supporters are guaranteed to vote in a way no other party can be sure of.

 

I agree on 2017. Labour will be wiped out, and I would be astonished for that reason if Matheson gets the backing for deputy leadership in a few weeks time. They know it's coming.

Edited August 7, 2015 by jambo1185

[JamboX2]

Historically support for independence was always around 33%. It's been consistantly 45% whilst the No vote decreases.

 

I don't know what world you'd have to live in to believe that SNP were to blame for the conservatives putting up negative posters. They had little control over it, were too busy presumably winning Scotland. You need to look introspectively at your own party.

It has been shown in a series of reports that aside from Labour not offering answers to certain issues on immigration, austerity etc, that the fact that the Tories played the growth of the SNP in the polls was a killer blow.

 

The Tories could effectively campaign in the rest of the UK as the party against nationalism and the Scottish National Party. It swung votes in England and detracted some in Wales from voting Plaid. The effect of having Alex Salmond, a man not very well loved by many down south, as a bogeyman about to run riot in Westminster and influence the direction of government but the scare on many voters to jump into the Tory boat.

 

Not to mention the unprecedented Liberal collapse.

 

The SNP winning 50% of the vote and 90% of the seats in Scotland was massively influential in making English minds up. Miliband actually answered the question on would he work with them and it was still thrown back at them. The SNP and Tory campaigns were synced. Not intentionally. But by saying to Scots a vote for the SNP would bring about a Labour government and that they could block the Tories out of power helped the Tories in England say that Labour would be weak and run from Salmond's office.

 

None of which, on both sides, was remotely true.

 

If you ask me it proved we needelectoral reform. When half the voting public are represented by 3 MPs you begin to question the system.

[JamboX2]

5 by-elections last night in the Glasgow area, 5 victories for the SNP, lowest share of the vote was 48%. IMO the council elections in 2017 are the real test for the SNP. If the old Glasgow labour cartel can be kicked out of power in the council there, then labour truly is finished.

Good result for the SNP. I think Labour will likely lose Glasgow in 2017. The 2012 result there was rightly a triumph to hold the council under STV in majority for Labour but was sadly not capitalised on by Labour across the country. Matheson rightly told Scottish Labour HQ to butt out of the race then.

 

I don't live in Glasgow. But the increase in the number of companies paying the living wage due to a Council initiative led by Matheson, his success in delivering the commonwealth games and the improvements made in combatting health inequalities on his watch have been very impressive.

 

Could be a good deputy leader for labour. Brings a local view to a national body.

[JamboX2]

The Unionist Handbook to Irony:

 

Page 1: I will complain independence supporters keep going on about referendums while myself constantly bleating on about referendums.

 

Page 2: I will accuse independence supporters of not understanding politics or democracy while complaining about what a political party puts in it's manifesto and the consequences of a majority voting for that manifesto.

You're totally correct on both points.

 

I voted yes as a soft no because I thought if no won this debate would never end and the SNP would remain largely unaccountable to the people as a result as they're masters of passing the buck.

 

If people vote for an SNP party committed to a second referendum then they should of course bro the second vote. If they lose that then they should, in my view, drop their quest for a generation perhaps. But the time is ripe for them to test it again with a Tory majority so why not go again?

 

Personally, as someone who believes in a more socialist way of doing things I think many on here and in Scotland as a whole would be hugely disappointed by an independent Scotland, as I just don't think it would be a centre left nation. Much like Ireland and the Scandinavian nations, there'd be a growth in in he centre right. After all, who are the oil barons going to back? Who will big business back? Who will middle class people support?

 

Personally, they won't run to the left to build a socialist Scotland. They'll run for low tax and back it.