The 2015 General Election Megathread

[Cast No Shadow]

The SNP now consistently polling in excess of 50%. Just let that sink in.

 

Someone stick a fork in the Branch Office: they're done.

 

[jambo1185]

Slow growth rate of 0.3% - bad for the Tories.

 

IFS going to town on all the parties:-

 

50p top tax rate will hardly raise anything, possibly as little as ?100m (will anyone listen to how ineffective whacking up the top rate of tax is? Probably not because it sounds good to say you will tax the rich more even if it is of negligible benefit)

 

First-time buyer stamp duty break and widening right to buy will drive up prices

 

Tory IHT policy makes no economic sense

 

Labour?s proposals to remove the winter fuel payments from higher rate taxpaying pensioners and to limit cash increases to child benefit to 1 per cent this year and next would save "next to nothing"

 

So basically, all the parties (including the Greens, SNP, Plaid) are full of crap about how difficult things are going to be in the next 5 years. 

 

Also looks like Russell "I hate the man and Westminster and all politicians are evil and lets publicly hang everyone who has ever worked for a bank even the lady who says hello when you walk into your local high street branch cos she was also implicit in the crash" Brand, was having a cosy evening with Miliband and may publicly come out in support of Labour in the next couple of days.

Edited April 28, 2015 by jambo1185

[TheMaganator]

To be fair, the Tories are whipping up anti-Scotch feeling south of the border in an attempt to out UKIP UKIP. Labour, while not saying it in the same tone, are still disregarding the (potential) will of the electorate in Scotland. Both these things say to me, and no doubt to quite a lot of the electorate here, is "it's our ball, and you're not playing". Which is quite pathetic.

 

If anything stokes and fuels what you call grievance, then it is the actions of these two parties.

 

Yes, the SNP wants an independent Scotland, but it is the Labour party and more obviously the Conservatives, who are doing their best to wreck the Union. The SNP don't have to agitate for it. These two are doing a fine job all by themselves because they are so out of touch with the Scottish electorate that it's obscene.

Whipping up anti-SNP feeling and whipping up anti-Scottish feeling are not the same and should not be confused.

 

And you're ignoring the language used by the SNP throughout this - in terms of what they'll do when they get down there.

 

But if the will of the people of Scotland is to return a party that will likely have no real influence in a Westminster government then we cannot get upset if the SNP's demands are not met.

[Gizmo]

To be fair, the Tories are whipping up anti-Scotch feeling south of the border in an attempt to out UKIP UKIP.  Labour, while not saying it in the same tone, are still disregarding the (potential) will of the electorate in Scotland.  Both these things say to me, and no doubt to quite a lot of the electorate here, is "it's our ball, and you're not playing".  Which is quite pathetic.

 

If anything stokes and fuels what you call grievance, then it is the actions of these two parties.

 

Yes, the SNP wants an independent Scotland, but it is the Labour party and more obviously the Conservatives, who are doing their best to wreck the Union.  The SNP don't have to agitate for it.  These two are doing a fine job all by themselves because they are so out of touch with the Scottish electorate that it's obscene.

 

Well said, Boris.

 

EVEL and the outpouring of utter bile and outright racism from the English-controlled press and straight from the mouths of Cameron & Boris tells us all you need to know about our position in this "democratic union". It's an "affront to democracy" according to Theresa May, if we don't just do as we are told and vote for either of the establishment parties! And I thought the democratic process was that you vote for whomever you wish to represent your constituency and the FPTP system dealt with the totting up of constituency votes to see who forms the Government. How naive of me.

 

But of course those red & blue through & through voters will still tell us all that it's the SNP who are agitating and looking for grievance despite clear evidence to the contrary, as they cast their usual vote and ignore the decades of disinterest shown towards Scotland by the careerist Westminster politicians. They do not want to hear it and are happy to see the levels of poverty rise whilst billions are taken off our budget to pay for show-piece vanity projects that don't even get as far north as Berwick-Upon-Tweed.

 

 

[doctor jambo]

Whipping up anti-SNP feeling and whipping up anti-Scottish feeling are not the same and should not be confused.

 

And you're ignoring the language used by the SNP throughout this - in terms of what they'll do when they get down there.

 

But if the will of the people of Scotland is to return a party that will likely have no real influence in a Westminster government then we cannot get upset if the SNP's demands are not met.

Mag - I am not an SNP fan- boy but this is wrong

For years we have returned labour MP's and had no real influence on Westminster, even when labour were in power- because Labour took the Scots vote for granted, then used the block votes we provided to run rUK

The SNP will now control an entire country within the UK - a complete monopoly

whilst the other parties are weak

The Scots cannot be ignored now

[Boris]

Whipping up anti-SNP feeling and whipping up anti-Scottish feeling are not the same and should not be confused.

 

And you're ignoring the language used by the SNP throughout this - in terms of what they'll do when they get down there.

 

But if the will of the people of Scotland is to return a party that will likely have no real influence in a Westminster government then we cannot get upset if the SNP's demands are not met.

 

I agree that anti-snp is different from anti-scots, however I don't think that distinction is being heavily made down South.  Also, if Scotland sends down 40+ MP's the lines of distinction are again blurred.

 

What I've heard Sturgeon say is that the SNP will work for the best interests of Scotland (you would expect that from MP's representing Scottish constituencies) but also to do what is best for the UK.

 

As for your last point, well, I find it absurd that no party would wish to work with the third largest (potentially) party at Westminster.  Especially Labour, given the common ground that is there.  However, as you say, if they have no influence then it will be hard to get what they (the SNP) are after.  All this will do is further alienate the Scottish electorate who when they look at it historically will see that their voice doesn't count and isn't heard at Westminster.  So the next logical step is to go it alone, if there is a democratic deficit.

[Psychedelicropcircle]

Whipping up anti-SNP feeling and whipping up anti-Scottish feeling are not the same and should not be confused.

 

And you're ignoring the language used by the SNP throughout this - in terms of what they'll do when they get down there.

 

But if the will of the people of Scotland is to return a party that will likely have no real influence in a Westminster government then we cannot get upset if the SNP's demands are not met.

You and the few others have been abandoned by your Peodo protecting leader.

[Nookie Bear]

You and the few others have been abandoned by your Peodo protecting leader.

 

Nice.

[XB52]

Whipping up anti-SNP feeling and whipping up anti-Scottish feeling are not the same and should not be confused.

 

And you're ignoring the language used by the SNP throughout this - in terms of what they'll do when they get down there.

 

But if the will of the people of Scotland is to return a party that will likely have no real influence in a Westminster government then we cannot get upset if the SNP's demands are not met.

very true, absolutely no anti-Scots stuff coming from England -

•  

•  

 

'Load up all the Jocks and drop them off in Edinburgh': Kelvin MacKenzie's venomous tirade against Scots in England

Edited April 28, 2015 by Dipped Flake

[jambo1185]

Should we have a separate prediction, no debate, thread? Perhaps at least to get away from the endless sniping and 'he said she said' whataboutery that's been going on for the past 2 week:-

 

I'm going for

 

Number of seats:

 

SNP - 50

Labour - 4

Libdem - 3

Tory - 2

 

I think the Tories could as easily end up with 4 seats as with 0, and the Lib Dems could be anywhere between 1 and 5, but the above I think is fairly realistic.

 

Biggest upset/surprise of the night - not sure which of the Alexanders would classify as the biggest, or that nowadays it would really be a surprise, but both will be out. Maybe Murray clinging on to Edinburgh South?

 

Something you would like to happen but don't think will - Jim Murphy comes third in his constituency with the Tories stealing it by a tiny majority over the SNP and/or Alex Salmond loses Gordon to the Lib Dems (not sure whether I would be happier with a massive loss, or losing by a single vote)

 

Something that definitely won't happen - Tories end up as Scotland's second biggest party (either in seat numbers or vote share) and Mag spends the next 5 years walking around in a full union jack outfit with a life sized cardboard cut out of Maggie in celebration.

Edited April 28, 2015 by jambo1185

[Cade]

From yesterday's poll of polls:
Majority = 326.

 

Con 283, LibDem 24, DUP 8, UKIP 1 all added up only makes 316, ten short of a workable majority of 326.

 

Lab 270, SNP 47 and LibDem 24 adds up to 341.

 

 

Are Milliband and Clegg really going to give up the chance to run the country/be a senior minister just to spite the SNP?

[jambo1185]

No they won't, but I don't think that's what they are saying. They are just saying they won't do a formal deal (which the SNP don't want anyway).

Edited April 28, 2015 by jambo1185

[AndrewB]

Voters in ruk now moving towards Tory at the thought of a Labour snp alliance.seems like Tories mocking ed in the pocket of salmond threats are now paying dividends. But who does Nicola really want to win?

Really?

The only site worth looking at is ukpollingreport.co.uk

It will tell you ten times a week, don't get excited by single polls.  Also, it will show you that it is still neck and neck.  There is no movement to one party or the other.

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

I have to be honest, if the SNP run riot in Scotland (which they're going to) then I think they're entitled to start up the referendum process again. Seems pretty clear to me that sooner or later a majority in Scotland is going to vote for independence.

[Stuart Lyon]

But the Scottish people decided they didn't want independence so why hold another vote! Have the SNP now developed real fiscal policies, a real currency solution etc in the short time since September last year. I doubt it. It would appear that the SNP have conned the masses into thinking they have the answers when the truth is they haven't. I shudder at the prospect of them representing Scotland, I really do. 

[AndrewB]

Should we have a separate prediction, no debate, thread? Perhaps at least to get away from the endless sniping and 'he said she said' whataboutery that's been going on for the past 2 week:-

 

 

Something you would like to happen but don't think will

 

Nick Clegg's head on a spike in the centre of Sheffield.

 

From yesterday's poll of polls:

Majority = 326.

 

Con 283, LibDem 24, DUP 8, UKIP 1 all added up only makes 316, ten short of a workable majority of 326.

 

Lab 270, SNP 47 and LibDem 24 adds up to 341.

 

 

Are Milliband and Clegg really going to give up the chance to run the country/be a senior minister just to spite the SNP?

 

 

Hopefully, Miliband's opening phone call on the Friday morning will be "we'll do a deal with the Lib Dems but Clegg has to step down immediately."

 

He has enabled everythng that Cameron and Osborne (and Pickles and Lansley and Hunt etc) have done.  His parroting of the Tory "it's all Labour's fault.  They maxed out the credit card." continues to infuriate me - as he is continuing it up to this day.

[Nookie Bear]

 

very true, absolutely no anti-Scots stuff coming from England -

•  

•  

 

'Load up all the Jocks and drop them off in Edinburgh': Kelvin MacKenzie's venomous tirade against Scots in England

 

FFS the last thing I want in Edinburgh are more Jocks!

[IMac]

Nick Clegg's head on a spike in the centre of Sheffield.

 

 

 

Hopefully, Miliband's opening phone call on the Friday morning will be "we'll do a deal with the Lib Dems but Clegg has to step down immediately."

 

He has enabled everythng that Cameron and Osborne (and Pickles and Lansley and Hunt etc) have done. His parroting of the Tory "it's all Labour's fault. They maxed out the credit card." continues to infuriate me - as he is continuing it up to this day.

Truth hurts. Economy and government finances were messed in 2010. Things have gotten better but obviously more needs to be done. Overspending is ok short term but not as a way of life like labour and the snp would do.

[aussieh]

FFS the last thing I want in Edinburgh are more Jocks!

[Cade]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/feb/27/guardian-poll-projection

 

This morning's poll of polls provides these new figures:

 

Lab 269 + SNP 55 = 324 (enough to survive a no confidence vote because Sinn Fein never bother to turn up to vote on anything).

 

Con 274 + LibDem 27 + UKIP 3 + DUP 9 = 313. 

 

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

But the Scottish people decided they didn't want independence so why hold another vote! Have the SNP now developed real fiscal policies, a real currency solution etc in the short time since September last year. I doubt it. It would appear that the SNP have conned the masses into thinking they have the answers when the truth is they haven't. I shudder at the prospect of them representing Scotland, I really do. 

 

But still, for all that they lost the vote last year they're attracting massive support in this election. If votes for them had dropped off then they'd have no clout at all but if anything, they're more entitled than ever to push their agenda.

[Gorgiewave]

But the Scottish people decided they didn't want independence so why hold another vote! Have the SNP now developed real fiscal policies, a real currency solution etc in the short time since September last year. I doubt it. It would appear that the SNP have conned the masses into thinking they have the answers when the truth is they haven't. I shudder at the prospect of them representing Scotland, I really do. 

 

Folk only voted No because they were old and selfish and stupid and scared and didn't want to lose their pension or their country. Anyway, it wasn't No, it was "Not Yet".

Edited April 28, 2015 by Gorgiewave

[Boab]

Couldn't agree with it more, myself. Labour does need to reinvigorate itself in Scotland. And there is a golden chance to do so in 2016 at Holyrood with a stronger team. Whatever may happen at the end of this it's a chance to set out a vision to counter the SNP.

 

But at the same time the article is just superb. We can't use old values and contexts long gone to define and set our future and how we relate to politics. Compassion, fairness and ambition for the next generation should be the corner stones of the next 10 years, not the slide we can see on both sides of grudge and grievance.

You've put it perfectly, mate.

I can relate to the guy as many people can regarding their own parents and grandparents' values and views.

As long as the ugly side of politics can be held back, the three things you've mentioned should, indeed, be the basis of the future. 

In my own opinion it can't be done with rampant neo-liberalism.

[XB52]

But the Scottish people decided they didn't want independence so why hold another vote! Have the SNP now developed real fiscal policies, a real currency solution etc in the short time since September last year. I doubt it. It would appear that the SNP have conned the masses into thinking they have the answers when the truth is they haven't. I shudder at the prospect of them representing Scotland, I really do. 

If the SNP have a referendum in their manifesto for 2016 it is up to the people of Scotland who to vote for, it's called democracy, you may have heard of it

[2NaFish]

But the Scottish people decided they didn't want independence so why hold another vote! Have the SNP now developed real fiscal policies, a real currency solution etc in the short time since September last year. I doubt it. It would appear that the SNP have conned the masses into thinking they have the answers when the truth is they haven't. I shudder at the prospect of them representing Scotland, I really do. 

 

We had a general election a few years back too, there's probably no point in having another one next week.

[Boris]

But the Scottish people decided they didn't want independence so why hold another vote! Have the SNP now developed real fiscal policies, a real currency solution etc in the short time since September last year. I doubt it. It would appear that the SNP have conned the masses into thinking they have the answers when the truth is they haven't. I shudder at the prospect of them representing Scotland, I really do. 

 

That's a bit like saying in 1997 the British electorate overwhelmingly voted for a Blair and the Labour Party so why have any more elections!

 

No won the referendum.

 

Momentum suggests that there is still wind in the sails for independence.  

 

Now, had No won by 60%+ then I doubt we would see the rise in the SNP as we are seeing.  Similarly, if Yes were to win I'd be uncomfortable to go independent on less than 60%+ in favour.

 

But, as I've said all along, the SNP is merely the vehicle.  People are voting for them because they are a change.  Westminster is a busted flush, the two main parties have no enthusiasm to change the system so what happens?

 

Play the system and elect none of the above i.e. SNP

 

Work towards leaving the whole system altogether i.e. independence

[Dusk_Till_Dawn]

In saying that, if the SNP lost two referendum's in quick succession then I think they'd have to call it a day.

[TheMaganator]

If they have a referendum in their 2016 manifesto and get a majority they can hold another referendum.

 

They'd lose by a bigger margin that they did the last time. 

 

Unless they have an answer for currency and all of the other varied and numerous holes in their little plan. We'll have more powers by then anyway which will satisfy a lot of the soft-yes. The No camp are also more savvy than they were at the outset of the last campaign. 

 

The core will still vote for it but I'd predict a 61% 39% in favour of the union.

 

The prospect of dealing with another referendum fills me with dread though. The last few years were really shite.  

[deesidejambo]

In saying that, if the SNP lost two referendum's in quick succession then I think they'd have to call it a day.

Maybe they would go for "best of five?".  Seriously, we need another referendum.  The issue is not going away, and as can be seen in this thread, is causing division and is not good for the Country.  And the Nats wil get pasted again anyway.

[aussieh]

There will no 2nd indyref even if we return 59 Mps.

quality trolling from the Exsturgeonator.

[jambo1185]

Did Evan ask Nicola a single question on substantive policy last night? Or anything about their record at Holyrood? I was only half paying attention but I don't remember anything other than independence referendum and deals with Labour being discussed, and something about her fancying David Beckham,

[Pans Jambo]

The 2015 General Election Megathread

 

Just thought I would post the thread title to remind some folk that its not the "SNP to hold another Independence referendum" thread

 

ITS NOT IN THEIR MANIFESTO THIS TIME ROUND SO WHY ARE WE DISCUSSING IT???????

Edited April 28, 2015 by Pans Jambo

[Pans Jambo]

That's a bit like saying in 1997 the British electorate overwhelmingly voted for a Blair and the Labour Party so why have any more elections!

 

No won the referendum.

 

Momentum suggests that there is still wind in the sails for independence.  

 

Now, had No won by 60%+ then I doubt we would see the rise in the SNP as we are seeing.  Similarly, if Yes were to win I'd be uncomfortable to go independent on less than 60%+ in favour.

 

But, as I've said all along, the SNP is merely the vehicle.  People are voting for them because they are a change.  Westminster is a busted flush, the two main parties have no enthusiasm to change the system so what happens?

 

Play the system and elect none of the above i.e. SNP

 

Work towards leaving the whole system altogether i.e. independence

Top post sir.

[jambo1185]

The 2015 General Election Megathread

 

Just thought I would post the thread title to remind some folk that its not the "SNP to hold another Independence referendum" thread

 

ITS NOT IN THEIR MANIFESTO THIS TIME ROUND SO WHY ARE WE DISCUSSING IT???????

 

I suspect partly its because their policies are pretty much just the same as Labour's with a little bit of extra spending/borrowing thrown in, so if Labour start criticising the SNP manifesto they run into a bit of bother because they are basically saying their own policies are rubbish.

 

And well Mags is just a bit obsessed bless 'im.

Edited April 28, 2015 by jambo1185

[Psychedelicropcircle]

The 2015 General Election Megathread

 

Just thought I would post the thread title to remind some folk that its not the "SNP to hold another Independence referendum" thread

 

ITS NOT IN THEIR MANIFESTO THIS TIME ROUND SO WHY ARE WE DISCUSSING IT???????

 

because when their parties are getting pumped in the polls it all they have left

[Pans Jambo]

The Revolution is here and is happening NOW.......

 

Sometimes someone just needs to say it like it is and this guy completely gets it.

 

[GBJambo]

If scotland did become separate I would hope the opportunity to hold a referendum to reunite scotland is there. It's democracy, right.

As that's what the nats keep bleating on about. It's their democratic right to keep having them until they get the answer they want.

Fairs fair.

[Boris]

If scotland did become separate I would hope the opportunity to hold a referendum to reunite scotland is there. It's democracy, right.

As that's what the nats keep bleating on about. It's their democratic right to keep having them until they get the answer they want.

Fairs fair.

 

I'm sure it would be.  However, would the ersatz UK want to take us back?

[jambo1185]

Those Class War people on Daily Politics seem nice.

 

One of their key policies is to double all benefits, funded for by a 90% top rate income tax.

 

I can't quite tell if it's serious or a joke.

Edited April 28, 2015 by jambo1185

[deesidejambo]

I'm sure it would be.  However, would the ersatz UK want to take us back?

Interesting.  Could Orkney & Shetland then have a referendum to stay with rUK?     Could the cities like Aberdeen and Edinburgh who voted No, have their own referendums to remain rUK?       Can't we let the four toilet areas that voted Yes not just bugger off to their Independence heaven? 

[deesidejambo]

Those Class War people on Daily Politics seem nice.

 

One of their key policies is to double all benefits, funded for by a 90% top rate income tax.

 

I can't quite tell if it's serious or a joke.

It will get votes in Weeg and scumdee.

[jambo1185]

IFS have just said that 44% of the adult UK population pay no income tax. I suppose it catches all the pensioners with low pensions, students who aren't working whilst studying, non-working parents etc..., but it still seems quite a high number.

 

They also rightly point out that cutting NI contributions for low earners would be more effective than continually increasing the personal allowance.

[ToadKiller Dog]

Interesting. Could Orkney & Shetland then have a referendum to stay with rUK? Could the cities like Aberdeen and Edinburgh who voted No, have their own referendums to remain rUK? Can't we let the four toilet areas that voted Yes not just bugger off to their Independence heaven?

Feck me Kelvin Mckenzie posts on kickback !

[jambo1185]

That's a lovely way to debate and discuss. I t looks to me like you have some sort of post referendum disorder, maybe you should seek professional help.

 

As a no voter, I'm hoping it's deliberate trolling. Why do people have to resort to such base, needless insults, whether it yes/no or labour/tory/snp/Christian people's alloance. I get its an internet message board but is some kind of semi-reasonable, intelligent debate totally out of the question?

[Boris]

Interesting.  Could Orkney & Shetland then have a referendum to stay with rUK?     Could the cities like Aberdeen and Edinburgh who voted No, have their own referendums to remain rUK?       Can't we let the four toilet areas that voted Yes not just bugger off to their Independence heaven? 

 

Eh?

 

I don't really get your point in relation to my post you quoted.

 

All I was saying is that say Scotland became independent, then 20 years later wanted to rejoin the UK, surely the UK would have to decide if it wanted us back?

 

Your reply has baffled me.

[Stuart Lyon]

Jambo 1185 - It is when the debate is with SNP sympathisers as you will recall the SNP are never wrong!

Edited April 28, 2015 by Stuart Lyon

[Unknown user]

Jambo 1185 - It is when the debate is with SNP sympathisers as you will recall the SNP are never wrong!

If I knew how to facepalm smiley I'd do it right about here

[deesidejambo]

That's a lovely way to debate and discuss. I t looks to me like you have some sort of post referendum disorder, maybe you should seek professional help.

Ad hom noted.  You seem to suggest I have a mental illness?     Nice.

[GBJambo]

Eh?

 

I don't really get your point in relation to my post you quoted.

 

All I was saying is that say Scotland became independent, then 20 years later wanted to rejoin the UK, surely the UK would have to decide if it wanted us back?

 

Your reply has baffled me.

Why should the UK decide? Did they get to decide on scotland becoming independent?

[deesidejambo]

Eh?

 

I don't really get your point in relation to my post you quoted.

 

All I was saying is that say Scotland became independent, then 20 years later wanted to rejoin the UK, surely the UK would have to decide if it wanted us back?

 

Your reply has baffled me.

I know I 'm deliberately provoking but the point I made, not very well, is that when looked at as a national average, the vote was 55/45.  Thats clear.  However, when looked at regionally, only four areas said Yes, the rest said No. 

 

So lets say, for example, that another referendum is held, and its 51/49 Yes, but the 51% only comes from the same four or areas or a few more. 

 

Would it be right that the whole of Scotland become independent based on a polarised small area of the Country?    Cue partition discussions.    It worked for Ireland (allegedly).