Hearts in Europe: 23/24 : v Rosenborg - Away leg on Hearts ppv ( updated )

[Waterboy]

A one stop shop now that it's confirmed we'll be in Europe next season.  I'm working on the assumption that Celtic beat Inverness (hopefully tempting fate :))

 

Hearts will enter the Europa Conference League in the 3rd qualifying round, as an unseeded team.

 

Key Dates:

Q3 first leg:                10 August

Q3 second leg:          17 August

 

If we progress...

 

Playoff first leg:         24 August

Playoff second leg:   31 August

 

If we progress... group stages commence 21 September.

 

Possible Opponents:

 

The draw for Q3 will be made before Q2 ties have been played.  It's therefore possible we will draw the winner of a Q2 tie, and have 2 possible opponents with the winner still to be determined.  There are still some domestic leagues and cups to be finalised, but at this moment in time, these are the sides who will be seeded and are therefore possible opponents.  This assumes that all of the seeded sides in Q2 win their ties - so some could be replaced by supposedly poorer sides - those in italics are the sides that it's been assumed will qualify from Q2.

 

Club Brugge                 Belgium

AZ Alkmaar                  Netherlands

AA Gent                        Belgium

Dinamo Kiev                 Ukraine

Partizan Belgrade        Serbia

PAOK                            Greece

Maccabi Tel-Aviv         Israel

Viktoria Plzen               Czech Rep

Bodo/Glimt                   Norway

Lech Poznan                Poland

Hapoel Beer-Sheva     Israel

Djurgardens                 Sweden

APOEL Nicosia             Cyprus

Besiktas                       Turkey

NK Rijeka                      Croatia

FC Arouca                     Portugal

 

Hearts Coefficient:

 

Hearts will enter with a coefficient of 7.28, which is the 'Scotland' coefficient, based on the performance of Scottish teams over the past 5 seasons.  Hearts actual coefficient is less than the 'Scotland' coefficient at 4, and so we are given the higher 'Scotland' coefficient.  Info on how this was earned, and the coefficients of other Scottish teams for 23/24:

 

 

If Hearts are eliminated in Q3, which is a real possibility, we will earn 2 pts, taking our total for the 24/25 season to 6.  If we made it to the Playoff round and were eliminated, we would earn 2.5 pts taking our total to 6.5.  Both scenarios would likely result in us again being given the 'Scotland' coefficient if we qualify for Europe in season 24/25.

 

The 'Scotland' coefficient is calculated based on a slightly different method to how the individual club coefficients are calculated, and so won't tie in with the figures you see above.  For season 24/25, the points earned from Scottish sides during the upcoming season will replace the points earned in 18/19.  Scottish sides therefore need to improve on 6.75 if they want to improve their ranking (and European places that come as a result), having only scored 3.5 in the season just past.

 

 

 

[PapaShango]

Some heavy hitters in there that we would really struggle against, AZ for a start! Not sure on the abilities of the other sides but if we are to make it through we are going to need some shrewd recruitment and play an unbelievable game over 2 legs. 

[Gorgiewave]

None too promising. A reasonable-sized club and out most likely.

[ShedBoy]

Bring it on. Cannot wait

[Lovecraft]

7 minutes ago, ShedBoy said:

Bring it on. Cannot wait

Is the correct answer/statement.

 

 

[john thomas]

12 minutes ago, PapaShango said:

Some heavy hitters in there that we would really struggle against, AZ for a start! Not sure on the abilities of the other sides but if we are to make it through we are going to need some shrewd recruitment and play an unbelievable game over 2 legs. 

Basically over 4 legs ?

Qualifying round and play offs

[Rockwell]

Heard of all these teams but apart from AZ  no idea what standard they are . So I really don't know if we have a realistic chance against any of them or not

[Baxfee]

22 minutes ago, Waterboy said:

A one stop shop now that it's confirmed we'll be in Europe next season.  I'm working on the assumption that Celtic beat Inverness (hopefully tempting fate :))

 

Hearts will enter the Europa Conference League in the 3rd qualifying round, as an unseeded team.

 

Key Dates:

Q3 first leg:                10 August

Q3 second leg:          17 August

 

If we progress...

 

Playoff first leg:         24 August

Playoff second leg:   31 August

 

If we progress... group stages commence 21 September.

 

Possible Opponents:

 

The draw for Q3 will be made before Q2 ties have been played.  It's therefore possible we will draw the winner of a Q2 tie, and have 2 possible opponents with the winner still to be determined.  There are still some domestic leagues and cups to be finalised, but at this moment in time, these are the sides who will be seeded and are therefore possible opponents.  This assumes that all of the seeded sides in Q2 win their ties - so some could be replaced by supposedly poorer sides - those in italics are the sides that it's been assumed will qualify from Q2.

 

Club Brugge                 Belgium

AZ Alkmaar                  Netherlands

AA Gent                        Belgium

Dinamo Kiev                 Ukraine

Partizan Belgrade        Serbia

PAOK                            Greece

Maccabi Tel-Aviv         Israel

Viktoria Plzen               Czech Rep

Bodo/Glimt                   Norway

Lech Poznan                Poland

Hapoel Beer-Sheva     Israel

Djurgardens                 Sweden

APOEL Nicosia             Cyprus

Besiktas                       Turkey

NK Rijeka                      Croatia

FC Arouca                     Portugal

 

Hearts Coefficient:

 

Hearts will enter with a coefficient of 7.28, which is the 'Scotland' coefficient, based on the performance of Scottish teams over the past 5 seasons.  Hearts actual coefficient is less than the 'Scotland' coefficient at 4, and so we are given the higher 'Scotland' coefficient.  Info on how this was earned, and the coefficients of other Scottish teams for 23/24:

 

 

If Hearts are eliminated in Q3, which is a real possibility, we will earn 2 pts, taking our total for the 24/25 season to 6.  If we made it to the Playoff round and were eliminated, we would earn 2.5 pts taking our total to 6.5.  Both scenarios would likely result in us again being given the 'Scotland' coefficient if we qualify for Europe in season 24/25.

 

The 'Scotland' coefficient is calculated based on a slightly different method to how the individual club coefficients are calculated, and so won't tie in with the figures you see above.  For season 24/25, the points earned from Scottish sides during the upcoming season will replace the points earned in 18/19.  Scottish sides therefore need to improve on 6.75 if they want to improve their ranking (and European places that come as a result), having only scored 3.5 in the season just past.

 

 

 

Wow - you got a PHD in this? I’m impressed. No Mickey Mouse teams then? 

[Italian Lambretta]

Can someone confirm if we are unseeded do we play at home first then away?

[Rick Sanchez]

I thought we'd be seeded in the third round qualifying

[Italian Lambretta]

4 minutes ago, Rockwell said:

Heard of all these teams but apart from AZ  no idea what standard they are . So I really don't know if we have a realistic chance against any of them or not

I’m sure club Brugge recently played in the champions league

[JimmyCant]

10 minutes ago, Rockwell said:

Heard of all these teams but apart from AZ  no idea what standard they are . So I really don't know if we have a realistic chance against any of them or not

Look at it this way. I’d probably fancy Celtic and Rangers to knock most of them out over 2 legs . Theyre mostly better than us but in some cases it’s not a huge gulf and we’d have a chance if we were at our very best with an enhanced squad from where it’s at now.

 

The play off round after that we’d be sure to meet very top quality and getting to the groups would be next to impossible 

Edited May 29, 2023 by JimmyCant

[Waterboy]

6 minutes ago, Rick Sanchez said:

I thought we'd be seeded in the third round qualifying

 

We'll likely be one of the poorest teams in Q3 in terms of coefficient.

[davemclaren]

11 minutes ago, Italian Lambretta said:

Can someone confirm if we are unseeded do we play at home first then away?

Doesn't work that way. 

[ShedBoy]

[indianajones]

Tough games. 

 

Need to make sure third is a stick for next year. Think it will be tbh. No way Aberdeen will cope with what we had to deal with this season. 

[DB-14]

Here is a more extensive list of potentials but of course a lot depends on round two as if an unseeded club beats a seeded club at that stage then we could get very fortunate.

[TexasAndy]

I'd like to think we will be a bit better equipped than last year.  If we can keep our team from Saturday plus Halkett, Boyce and Beni, plus 3 good signings then I would be confident against a Zurich level team.  

Edited May 29, 2023 by TexasAndy

[Waterboy]

1 minute ago, DB-14 said:

Here is a more extensive list of potentials but of course a lot depends on round two as if an unseeded club beats a seeded club at that stage then we could get very fortunate.

 

 

Depends which way you look at it.  If an unseeded team manages to beat a seeded team then they must be pretty good....just don't have the coefficient they possibly deserve.

 

Think that list is also projecting who will take the remaining European places from domestic leagues and cups, so could change in that respect too.  Either way, not many teams there I fancy!

[indianajones]

Is there any chance we could get Hibs? 

[DB-14]

1 minute ago, Waterboy said:

 

Depends which way you look at it.  If an unseeded team manages to beat a seeded team then they must be pretty good....just don't have the coefficient they possibly deserve.

 

Think that list is also projecting who will take the remaining European places from domestic leagues and cups, so could change in that respect too.  Either way, not many teams there I fancy!

True for reference here is the projected second round.

 

[Waterboy]

1 minute ago, indianajones said:

Is there any chance we could get Hibs? 

 

Nope, kept apart.

[DB-14]

Just now, indianajones said:

Is there any chance we could get Hibs? 

 

Clubs from same countries cannot play each other until quarter final stage.

[Dazo]

People might to start lowering their group football expectations. Unless we get an incredibly lucky draw the level of team we are likely to face will be too strong. 

[indianajones]

5 minutes ago, Waterboy said:

 

Nope, kept apart.

 

4 minutes ago, DB-14 said:

 

Clubs from same countries cannot play each other until quarter final stage.

 

That's a shame. Would pretty much be a by into the next round. 

[Eddiepolio3]

Just a thought,  now we're in Europe, one less round in the league Cup? 

[DB-14]

Just now, Eddiepolio3 said:

Just a thought,  now we're in Europe, one less round in the league Cup? 

 

Yep, no group stage to worry about again thankfully.

[Jambo61]

35 minutes ago, Baxfee said:

Wow - you got a PHD in this? I’m impressed. No Mickey Mouse teams then? 

Just us!

[Waterboy]

Just now, Jambo61 said:

Just us!

 

Didn't want to be the one to say it 😂

[Seaside Dave]

Portugal or Croatia for a sunny session. Or Israel to see Jesus and the disciples 

[Italian Lambretta]

59 minutes ago, Seaside Dave said:

Portugal or Croatia for a sunny session. Or Israel to see Jesus and the disciples 

Tel Aviv would be amazing 

[Peakybunnet]

2 hours ago, ShedBoy said:

Bring it on. Cannot wait

👍

[Italian Lambretta]

Just noticed Besiktas are there as well. Another trip to Instanbul would be most enjoyable 😎

[Negan]

I think we would beat teams like djurgardens and Victoria Plzen with our current team. 

[neilnunb]

1 hour ago, Eddiepolio3 said:

Just a thought,  now we're in Europe, one less round in the league Cup? 

 

1 hour ago, DB-14 said:

 

Yep, no group stage to worry about again thankfully.

 

 

Worked out great last time 😐

[4marsbars]

2 hours ago, Waterboy said:

A one stop shop now that it's confirmed we'll be in Europe next season.  I'm working on the assumption that Celtic beat Inverness (hopefully tempting fate :))

 

Hearts will enter the Europa Conference League in the 3rd qualifying round, as an unseeded team.

 

 

 

 

Thanks for all that detail.

 

I was wondering, someone posted through the week that the team entering in the 2nd qualifying round (probably Hibs, could still be us) gets an extra round of games (obviously) but would be seeded, and keep that seeding through rounds 3 and 4.

 

More rounds against slightly easier teams. Is that correct?

 

[Jamboross]

17 minutes ago, Negan said:

I think we would beat teams like djurgardens and Victoria Plzen with our current team. 

 

I'd be surprised if we did. 

 

Plzen were in the group stages of the CL this season, admittedly they did lose every game but did reasonably well against Bayern and Barca in the home games. 

 

Djurgardens topped their Conference League group, undefeated, with double the points of Gent who were second.  

 

 

[Lord Beni of Gorgie]

Hopefully get a team on way down just been robbed of their star players or got chronic injury problems. You never know

[Waterboy]

18 minutes ago, 4marsbars said:

 

Thanks for all that detail.

 

I was wondering, someone posted through the week that the team entering in the 2nd qualifying round (probably Hibs, could still be us) gets an extra round of games (obviously) but would be seeded, and keep that seeding through rounds 3 and 4.

 

More rounds against slightly easier teams. Is that correct?

 

 

Nope.  The team entering in Q2 (Hibs assuming Celtic win the cup) will be seeded with a coefficient of 7.28 - they will face an unseeded team with a coefficient of less than 7 (roughly, still tbc).

 

Because the Q3 draw is done before Q2 has finished, they don't know what team will progress and therefore don't know what coefficient they'll have, and therefore can't designate seeded/unseeded.  

 

So what they do is they assume that all seeded teams progress from Q2 and use their coefficient.  If an unseeded team was to then progress, they benefit from carrying through their opponents higher coefficient. 

 

In Hibs case, if they win in Q2, they will definitely be unseeded in Q3, same as Hearts.  If they were to lose, the team that beat them will carry through Hibs coefficient of 7.28, so again would be unseeded in Q3.

 

If an unseeded team pulled off a real scalp and beat one of the big boys in Q2 (such as Club Brugge), they would benefit as they would carry through Brugge's high coefficient (54.00) and end up being seeded in Q3, despite being unseeded in Q2.  Those sort of scenarios are unlikely however.

[DB-14]

This Twitter page may be useful for explaining different scenarios and keeping track of who we could face.

 

Edited May 29, 2023 by DB-14

[Peteg75]

58 minutes ago, Negan said:

I think we would beat teams like djurgardens and Victoria Plzen with our current team. 

And they will think the same about us.  Nothing is sure. I'd rather avoid teams like them tbh

[Daveandal]

19 minutes ago, Lord Beni of Gorgie said:

Hopefully get a team on way down just been robbed of their star players or got chronic injury problems. You never know

 

This is always possible. There could easily be well kent teams in horrible situations and are there for the taking. Zurich were a little like that.

 

On the other hand there can be unknown teams who are bankrolled or have a real crop of top players and we as a fan base underestimate them.

[Lord Beni of Gorgie]

5 minutes ago, Daveandal said:

 

This is always possible. There could easily be well kent teams in horrible situations and are there for the taking. Zurich were a little like that.

 

On the other hand there can be unknown teams who are bankrolled or have a real crop of top players and we as a fan base underestimate them.

Absolutely, names on paper for me

[Jambomuzz]

To be honest I think at this stage we just need to enjoy it for what it is, a chance to pit ourselves against a good European side. History has shown that we have struggled against these so called “easier teams” just as much as we have the better ones. So just take every tie as it comes and play our game. 

[Flimsy]

3 hours ago, JimmyCant said:

Look at it this way. I’d probably fancy Celtic and Rangers to knock most of them out over 2 legs . Theyre mostly better than us but in some cases it’s not a huge gulf and we’d have a chance if we were at our very best with an enhanced squad from where it’s at now.

 

The play off round after that we’d be sure to meet very top quality and getting to the groups would be next to impossible 

Not necessarily. The play-off round draw is before the 3rd qualifying round is played. If Hearts defeated a team that would have been seeded in the play-off round we would take their place and have a, theoretically, easier tie. For example, the draw might be AZ Alkmaar or Hearts vs unseeded team.

[Waterboy]

3 minutes ago, Flimsy said:

Not necessarily. The play-off round draw is before the 3rd qualifying round is played. If Hearts defeated a team that would have been seeded in the play-off round we would take their place and have a, theoretically, easier tie. For example, the draw might be AZ Alkmaar or Hearts vs unseeded team.

 

Yes, I'd say just about our only hope of reaching the groups.  Draw a team in Q3 that would only just have the coefficient to be seeded in the Playoff, and then hopefully draw one of the worst unseeded teams in the Playoff.

[4marsbars]

44 minutes ago, Waterboy said:

 

Nope.  The team entering in Q2 (Hibs assuming Celtic win the cup) will be seeded with a coefficient of 7.28 - they will face an unseeded team with a coefficient of less than 7 (roughly, still tbc).

 

Because the Q3 draw is done before Q2 has finished, they don't know what team will progress and therefore don't know what coefficient they'll have, and therefore can't designate seeded/unseeded.  

 

So what they do is they assume that all seeded teams progress from Q2 and use their coefficient.  If an unseeded team was to then progress, they benefit from carrying through their opponents higher coefficient. 

 

In Hibs case, if they win in Q2, they will definitely be unseeded in Q3, same as Hearts.  If they were to lose, the team that beat them will carry through Hibs coefficient of 7.28, so again would be unseeded in Q3.

 

If an unseeded team pulled off a real scalp and beat one of the big boys in Q2 (such as Club Brugge), they would benefit as they would carry through Brugge's high coefficient (54.00) and end up being seeded in Q3, despite being unseeded in Q2.  Those sort of scenarios are unlikely however.

 

Thanks for taking the time to explain this. Much appreciated.

[JimmyCant]

1 hour ago, Flimsy said:

Not necessarily. The play-off round draw is before the 3rd qualifying round is played. If Hearts defeated a team that would have been seeded in the play-off round we would take their place and have a, theoretically, easier tie. For example, the draw might be AZ Alkmaar or Hearts vs unseeded team.

True. So ideally we want a seeded team towards the bottom of the list who have drawn another minnow in the play off round

[SMJ_1874]

3 hours ago, Italian Lambretta said:

Just noticed Besiktas are there as well. Another trip to Instanbul would be most enjoyable 😎

I’m sure they’re the only team that has a stadium in the centre of Istanbul. All the others are in the outskirts. Besiktas are not too far from the just bar….. I think 🤔. Better to get them group stages though 

[Sooks]

5 hours ago, ShedBoy said:

Bring it on. Cannot wait

Me too , shake the inferiority complex and get right in about who ever we are drawn against . What do we have to lose