Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[JudyJudyJudy]

1 hour ago, graygo said:

 

Correct although the advice is that if you haven't received the letter then speak to your GP (if you can get past the receptionist) 😁

 

Pretty sure Scotland will be the same.

 

 

Yes that’s the problem with me the dreaded receptionist !! Lol 

[JudyJudyJudy]

[Unknown user]

Our population is pretty dense TBF, have you seen how many people buy the Sun?

[jake]

On 12/05/2020 at 19:14, Francis Albert said:

It isn't even an epidemic. According to the Office of National Statistics and the Royal College of GPs. Apparently an epidemic is declared when over 40 per 10000 adults have the disease. The figure is currently between 3 and 24 according to them 

A few weeks back I read about the 1968 version of Asian flu. It killed between 1m and 4m world wide and 80,000 in in the UK. I think I can remember every major news story of the 60s -I could list 100 -  but I have absolutely no recollection of this. No lockdown, no trashing of the economy. no daily briefings, no political outrage (it was under a Labour government but the disease was the least of their problems). There was of course no internet, no social media, no rolling news no myriad broadcasters desperately competing for the latest angle.

When all settles down and after the endless investigations, public enquiries, prosecutions I think the main conclusion will be that there has been a massive historic over-reaction and panic causing long term affects which may well do much more damage than Covid 9.

I'm not sure about your conclusion but some of the replies you received were bang out of order imo.

 

[Francis Albert]

44 minutes ago, jake said:

I'm not sure about your conclusion but some of the replies you received were bang out of order imo.

 

I am not sure about my conclusion either and the words  "I think" were meant to reflect that. Guess might have been a better word but others seem so certain about everything about this thing.

[Francis Albert]

1 hour ago, JamesM48 said:

As others have said density of population.is a pretty meaningless basis for comparison. Antarctica is doing pretty well I suspect. Add in the complete inconsistency of how deaths are counted and you compound one irrelevance with another.

[Pasquale for King]

895 deaths per 1m citizens. Nearly 60k deaths.

[jake]

2 hours ago, Francis Albert said:

I am not sure about my conclusion either and the words  "I think" were meant to reflect that. Guess might have been a better word but others seem so certain about everything about this thing.

Your points about the economy is relevant and especially considering the relationship to health.

[jake]

Extreme poverty to rise by 40 -80 million because of covid.

Most of which will happen in Africa.

Some fall out from this .

[ri Alban]

7 hours ago, SE16 3LN said:

That's true and Sweden's entire population is slightly bigger than London. 

So is Hong Kong and they have 4 dead. It's amazing that they have full control under those brutal Chinese. 

[Unknown user]

49 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

So is Hong Kong and they have 4 dead. It's amazing that they have full control under those brutal Chinese. 

From what I've read it's more to do with the population learning lessons from SARS and wearing face masks in public and sanitising frequently as a matter of course. 

[ri Alban]

1 minute ago, Smithee said:

From what I've read it's more to do with the population learning lessons from SARS and wearing face masks in public and sanitising frequently as a matter of course. 

Simple really, but we know better. Apparently!

[JFK-1]

The BBC have just posted an article reporting that the WHO are saying something I recently speculated here. That covid-19 may prove to be endemic just like flu.

 

Quote

The coronavirus "may never go away", the World Health Organization (WHO) has warned.

 

Speaking at a briefing on Wednesday, WHO emergencies director Dr Mike Ryan warned against trying to predict when the virus would disappear.

 

He added that even if a vaccine is found, controlling the virus will require a "massive effort".

 

FULL ARTICLE

[DETTY29]

5 hours ago, Pasquale for King said:

895 deaths per 1m citizens. Nearly 60k deaths.

Here is an excess deaths comparisons across countries, which is considered the best indicator of the 'immediate' impact 

 

Not quite sure how countries with covid deaths see no increase in excess deaths.

 

Article is free to read.  Large dense city data further down.

 

 

 

[The Mighty Thor]

17 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

Antibody test approved for use within U.K.

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/may/14/uk-coronavirus-live-antibody-test-approved-for-use-latest-updates

 

That is a massive step forward in terms of enabling us to improve our understanding of the thing.

Possibly the biggest step forward for everyone. 

 

Knowing the numbers who have had the virus with little or no symptoms could help frame how quickly we can all get on with life. 

 

Hopefully this can be ramped up very quickly. 

[pablo]

21 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

Antibody test approved for use within U.K.

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/may/14/uk-coronavirus-live-antibody-test-approved-for-use-latest-updates

 

That is a massive step forward in terms of enabling us to improve our understanding of the thing.

 

Only approved for use in England so far. Hopefully this is one thing we choose to follow on their lead? And Wales and Ireland too obviously. 

[Ron Burgundy]

17 hours ago, ri Alban said:

  Everyone has different opinions, doesn't make us right or wrong.

I wouldn't mind a game a golf. They should make all courses open to the public/non members , so you could use the nearest course. Just til this is overish.

 

 

Absolutely, no right or wrong and I completely understand some folks concerns. I am more and more beginning to believe that this virus is a godsend for the people who pull the strings. And I'm not usually one for conspiracy theories.

[Victorian]

There already was an antibody test but not one that could be scaled up.    This one,   unlike the various unsuccessful attempts,   is not a self test.    It's going to take another huge exercise to get it scaled up and rolled out.    

[Governor Tarkin]

4 minutes ago, Victorian said:

It's going to take another huge exercise to get it scaled up and rolled out.    

 

I'd say that should be a priority.

[jack D and coke]

37 minutes ago, Ron Burgundy said:

Absolutely, no right or wrong and I completely understand some folks concerns. I am more and more beginning to believe that this virus is a godsend for the people who pull the strings. And I'm not usually one for conspiracy theories.

Something just ain’t right about it all imo.
This thread is also full of people absolutely revelling in it too. 
 

[The Mighty Thor]

5 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

I'd say that should be a priority.

100% this. 

 

If we ever get to a position of testing capacity, track and trace and a scaled up antibody test capacity then we have a chance of understanding where we are with the virus and getting back to some kind of 'normality'. 

At the minute we're blundering about in the dark. 

[Victorian]

2 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

I'd say that should be a priority.

 

Certainly high on the list of priorities.    Hopefully it can be used quickly to further beef up the survey & research side of things.    It should be able to pin down a more accurate understanding of how widespread infection has been.    Repeated,   periodic testing of a survey group should be able to provide an understanding of how resilient the presence of antibodies is.    In terms of providing something akin to 'immunity clearance',   the priority has to be frontline workers.     

[Victorian]

Bearing in mind their distinct advantages,   New Zealand's success in containing their epidemic has been astonishing.     Virtual eradication.

[The Real Maroonblood]

45 minutes ago, jack D and coke said:

Something just ain’t right about it all imo.
This thread is also full of people absolutely revelling in it too. 
 

I don’t think the thread is as bad as it was as the beginning was horrendous.

I gave it a miss for about 3 or 4 weeks as it was so depressing.

[Spellczech]

2 hours ago, Brian Dundas said:

Something about the numbers that I do not understand and I am beginning to think there is some deliberate misinformation to make it harder to understand is - if the official death toll from Covid is 33K, we would expect the total deaths from all causes to be less than this figure as some people would have dies in that period anyway, so maybe 25K would be the excess deaths from all causes. Why is it 60K and where are the extra 35K deaths (my figure for illustration purposes) coming from and where are the happening, home, care homes, hospitals??

 

If we are going to relax the lockdown then you would think we would need to know the answers to these questions.

They undercalled the deaths in Care Homes when they added them retrospectively apparently...

[Beni]

Some people found an innovative way to get round social distancing rules.

 

 

[Pasquale for King]

5 hours ago, DETTY29 said:

Here is an excess deaths comparisons across countries, which is considered the best indicator of the 'immediate' impact 

 

Not quite sure how countries with covid deaths see no increase in excess deaths.

 

Article is free to read.  Large dense city data further down.

 

 

 

Cheers 

[Spellczech]

17 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

What really worries me is how can we say it is safe to open Schools for example if we don't have a true figure for the number of deaths of Children or Teachers, likewise public transport etc.

 

Over 30K un accounted for extra deaths does appear quite a lot, to me anyway.

I think it is pretty fair to say that kids are in no danger  themselves, just a potential danger to their relatives and teachers. 

[Pasquale for King]

3 hours ago, Brian Dundas said:

Something about the numbers that I do not understand and I am beginning to think there is some deliberate misinformation to make it harder to understand is - if the official death toll from Covid is 33K, we would expect the total deaths from all causes to be less than this figure as some people would have dies in that period anyway, so maybe 25K would be the excess deaths from all causes. Why is it 60K and where are the extra 35K deaths (my figure for illustration purposes) coming from and where are the happening, home, care homes, hospitals??

 

If we are going to relax the lockdown then you would think we would need to know the answers to these questions.

Indeed, I think they are counting anyone with Covid 19 who dies up here, not sure if that’s happening elsewhere. I think these figures are the extra deaths included on top of the usual figures but it’s the ONS that are counting them so I’m not sure why there’s a difference other than covering them up.

https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2020/03/31/counting-deaths-involving-the-coronavirus-covid-19/

[ri Alban]

Lockdown protests in Scotland on Saturday. One in Bashaw Park and some others.

I don't care if people want to go about their business as usual. But they should respect others and keep away. Risk catching it all you want, but keep it to yourself. Thanks.

 

 

 

[Jeff]

43 minutes ago, fancy a brew said:

Some people found an innovative way to get round social distancing rules.

 

 

 

Reminds me of the safe sex scene from The Naked Gun

[Ehllhayapeh]

Absolutely tragic

 

The real death toll in Mexico City is at least 5 times more than reported.

 

There is no flattening curve.

 

Its going to get much worse sadly 

 

https://news.sky.com/story/mexico-city-underreporting-covid-19-deaths-sky-news-analysis-finds-11987235?fbclid=IwAR1Jc1GUTnUuIKt23bNvNVe78C2tKdb2z068e6Qg5lWBDMKma164BRxnDyA

Edited May 14, 2020 by Ehllhayapeh

[OBE]

 

Scientist are gonna need another advisory forum when the experts on here start chanting hi ho, hi ho...I wonder if any other sub-football forum has been as thorough as the arseholes on here...sorry for any suspekt grammar, I'm on my 9th can...early dark ma Chinas...🍻

[Victorian]

Some erse asking about micro regional divergence of lockdown based on a lower R (Dumfries & Galloway cited).

 

**** off and stop being stupid.

[Victorian]

**** knows what The Sun hack was asking there.    Utter garbage.    

[The Real Maroonblood]

1 hour ago, ri Alban said:

Lockdown protests in Scotland on Saturday. One in Bashaw Park and some others.

I don't care if people want to go about their business as usual. But they should respect others and keep away. Risk catching it all you want, but keep it to yourself. Thanks.

 

 

 

The army would probably welcome extra training with these protests.

😁

[dobmisterdobster]

1 hour ago, Ehllhayapeh said:

Absolutely tragic

 

The real death toll in Mexico City is at least 5 times more than reported.

 

There is no flattening curve.

 

Its going to get much worse sadly 

 

https://news.sky.com/story/mexico-city-underreporting-covid-19-deaths-sky-news-analysis-finds-11987235?fbclid=IwAR1Jc1GUTnUuIKt23bNvNVe78C2tKdb2z068e6Qg5lWBDMKma164BRxnDyA

 

Global comparisons are useless if a majority of countries can't even audit their deaths properly.

[redjambo]

I don't know if it has already been posted but the Herald are saying that no new patients with Covid-19 have been admitted to intensive care in Scotland for at least 10 days. I find that difficult to believe because of the continuing death statistics, but it's good news if true.

 

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18447197.coronavirus-scotland-report-reveals-no-new-covid-admissions-icu-least-10-days/

[redjambo]

6 minutes ago, dobmisterdobster said:

 

Global comparisons are useless if a majority of countries can't even audit their deaths properly.

 

That doesn't mean that we shouldn't try though. Social scientists and statisticians will hopefully analyse all the data they can after this to fill in blanks where possible and look at the different approaches taken and circumstances surrounding the level of infection and mortality in different countries.

[ri Alban]

13 minutes ago, dobmisterdobster said:

 

Global comparisons are useless if a majority of countries can't even audit their deaths properly.

As in England? Fecking cheek talking about other countries.

[The Mighty Thor]

1 minute ago, redjambo said:

 

That doesn't mean that we shouldn't try though. Social scientists and statisticians will hopefully analyse all the data they can after this to fill in blanks where possible and look at the different approaches taken and circumstances surrounding the level of infection and mortality in different countries.

The 'gold standard' is all cause excess mortality apparently. The government were keen to talk about that until it started to look brutal then that was taken off the table. 

It'll be a while, if ever, before there will be valid global comparisons.

 

Its all pretty irrelevant now anyway as the game has shifted from most deaths to how countries come out of hiding without creating round 2?

[JudyJudyJudy]

2 hours ago, redjambo said:

I don't know if it has already been posted but the Herald are saying that no new patients with Covid-19 have been admitted to intensive care in Scotland for at least 10 days. I find that difficult to believe because of the continuing death statistics, but it's good news if true.

 

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18447197.coronavirus-scotland-report-reveals-no-new-covid-admissions-icu-least-10-days/

“Only”  6 in intensive care in Lothian’s massive improvement 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[manaliveits105]

Good news indeed from the Herald

Edited May 14, 2020 by manaliveits105

[annushorribilis III]

6 hours ago, Spellczech said:

I think it is pretty fair to say that kids are in no danger  themselves, just a potential danger to their relatives and teachers. 

I saw a Tweet last night from a doctor saying there's 100 kids in UK suffering from a condition (they think) caused by Covid that is similar to Kawasaki syndrome. 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52648557

[vegas-voss]

9 minutes ago, annushorribilis III said:

I saw a Tweet last night from a doctor saying there's 100 kids in UK suffering from a condition (they think) caused by Covid that is similar to Kawasaki syndrome. 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52648557

Was mentioned on here a week or so ago.Not heard much about it since on the news.Think there have been quite a few cases in the US as well.

Edited May 14, 2020 by vegas-voss

[Jeff]

Got a few mates over in New Zealand. Jealous is an understatement

[CJGJ]

10 minutes ago, Jeff said:

Got a few mates over in New Zealand. Jealous is an understatement

Baaaaaaaah 

[CJGJ]

If it is a 'civic duty' to avoid public transport is it not a government duty to stop public transport running ?

 

The tories really have not through this next step nonsense and the message is just so pathetically bad people are ignoring them and the message they are supposed to be putting out to the public

[scott herbertson]

4 hours ago, redjambo said:

I don't know if it has already been posted but the Herald are saying that no new patients with Covid-19 have been admitted to intensive care in Scotland for at least 10 days. I find that difficult to believe because of the continuing death statistics, but it's good news if true.

 

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18447197.coronavirus-scotland-report-reveals-no-new-covid-admissions-icu-least-10-days/

 

Numbers have definitely been going in the right direction , but not quite true for ICU over last couple of days

 

Yours pedantically, SH

 

 

test numbers: 13 May 2020

A total of 77,750 people in Scotland have been tested through NHS labs to date. Of these:

• 63,821 were confirmed negative

• 13,929 were positive

• 1,973 patients who tested positive have died

These figures will be an underestimate. Not everyone with COVID-19 will display symptoms and not all those with symptoms will be tested.

Management information reported by NHS Boards shows:

• 70 patients with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 were in intensive care last night, with 68 of those having tested positive

• there were 1,101 people in Scottish hospitals with confirmed COVID-19 (including those in intensive care), and a further 433 where it was suspected

 

 

14 May 2020

A total of 80,275 people in Scotland have been tested through NHS labs to date. Of these:

• 66,158 were confirmed negative

• 14,117 were positive

• 2,007 patients who tested positive have died

.

Management information reported by NHS Boards shows:

• 71 patients with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 were in intensive care last night, with 61 of those having tested positive

• there were 1,100 people in Scottish hospitals with confirmed COVID-19 (including those in intensive care), and a further 380 where it was suspected

 

[Spellczech]

9 minutes ago, CJGJ said:

If it is a 'civic duty' to avoid public transport is it not a government duty to stop public transport running ?

 

The tories really have not through this next step nonsense and the message is just so pathetically bad people are ignoring them and the message they are supposed to be putting out to the public

It's such a weird shambles. First they took a long time from being first asked to come up with a plan, then they decided to release everyone BEFORE actually explaining any plan they had arrived at, if they really actually had one at all... This Government appears to have serious problems just doing the basics ie planning, let alone actually actioning their plan, which ought to be the more difficult bit...

 

Boris is like the archetypal London-type of brash arrogant Englishman who sits there saying with an air of supreme confidence (sometimes called arrogance) "Yes, I can do that, Yes no problem" then utterly messes it up...Anyone who has also worked in London will know the sorts I mean.